Georgia State

Profile vs. FBS, 2014

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.1234th
  Defense+0.351st
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense39.8%21st
  Defense53.5%1st
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.3292nd
  Defense+1.1476th
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense−0.083rd
  Defense+0.361st
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.2765th
  Defense+0.3610th
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense44.3%21st
  Defense56.9%2nd
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense31.7%30th
  Defense44.8%1st
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense2.428th
  Defense3.701st
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense27.5%2nd
  Defense11.0%1st
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense3.4%3rd
  Defense1.3%7th

Percentiles among the 128 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2014

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Georgia State allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. W
   ACU
2. L
   NMSU
3. L
   AF
4. L
   WASH
5. L
   UL
6. L
   ARST
7. L
   USA
8. L
   GASO
9. L
   APP
10. L
    TROY
11. L
    CLEM
12. L
    TXST

Bars above the line: better than expected for Georgia State.

Players, 2014

1. Nick ArbuckleQB259 plays · +0.316 pts/play · 58th of 199 QBs
   1.53WAR1.10 to 1.93
2. Donovan HardenWR49 plays · +0.195 pts/play · 89th of 469 WRs
   0.18WAR0.10 to 0.27
3. Marcus CaffeyRB83 plays · +0.089 pts/play · 170th of 350 RBs
   0.14WAR0.07 to 0.20
4. Robert DavisWR40 plays · +0.143 pts/play · 188th of 469 WRs
   0.11WAR0.04 to 0.18
5. Wil LutzPK20 plays · +0.130 pts/play · 100th of 114 kickers
   0.05WAR0.02 to 0.08
6. Kyler NealRB18 plays · +0.112 pts/play · 268th of 350 RBs
   0.04WAR0.03 to 0.05
7. Keith RuckerTE3 plays · +0.081 pts/play · 19th of 212 TEs
   0.00WAR0.00 to 0.01
8. Glenn SmithRB5 plays · +0.046 pts/play · 300th of 350 RBs
   0.00WAR0.00 to 0.01

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Georgia State's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2014

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Georgia State's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 2 clear-cut ones account for 0.03 of the 0.08 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. at USAQ4 8:27 4th & 6 at USA 41, up 4Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.7 pts
2. at ULQ3 9:43 4th & 1 at GAST 29, down 4Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.5 pts
3. vs ARSTQ2 8:17 4th & 1 at GAST 33, down 24Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.7 pts
4. at WASHQ3 11:28 4th & 3 at GAST 30, up 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.6 pts
5. vs ACUQ4 0:45 4th & 19 at GAST 27, down 2Went for it; the numbers favored punting (close call)−0.6 pts
6. vs GASOQ3 13:08 4th & 1 at GAST 34, down 17Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.6 pts
7. vs TXSTQ2 10:23 4th & 1 at GAST 34, down 10Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.6 pts
8. at USAQ4 4:02 4th & 9 at USA 40, down 3Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal (close call)−0.5 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2014

108th of 128 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Georgia State's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7. Based on 11 of 12 games; one has no play-by-play to score.

1. W

   ACU
2. L

   NMSU
3. L

   AF
4. L

   WASH
5. L

   UL
6. L

   ARST
7. L

   USA
8. L

   GASO
9. L

   APP
10. L

    TROY
11. L

    CLEM
12. L

    TXST

What moved it, 2014

Every game starts at Georgia State's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard−1.90
• Possession & field position−0.03
• Clock−0.04
• Timeouts+0.03
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff+0.74

Game by game

• ACUW 38-37 vs ACU50% → 95%Before kickoff 0 · On the field +45: Scoreboard +35, Timeouts +3
• AFL 38-48 vs AF27% → 4%Before kickoff −23 · On the field −23: Scoreboard −35, Clock −2
• WASHL 14-45 at WASH2% → 0%Before kickoff −48 · On the field −2: Scoreboard −3
• ULL 31-34 at UL15% → 7%Before kickoff −35 · On the field −8: Scoreboard −18, Possession & field position −1
• ARSTL 10-52 vs ARST21% → 0%Before kickoff −29 · On the field −21: Scoreboard −27
• USAL 27-30 at USA14% → 9%Before kickoff −36 · On the field −5: Scoreboard −18, Possession & field position −1
• GASOL 31-69 vs GASO17% → 0%Before kickoff −33 · On the field −17: Scoreboard −22, Clock −1
• APPL 0-44 at APP34% → 0%Before kickoff −16 · On the field −34: Scoreboard −35
• TROYL 21-45 at TROY32% → 0%Before kickoff −18 · On the field −32: Scoreboard −34, Timeouts +1
• CLEML 0-28 at CLEM1% → 0%Before kickoff −49 · On the field −1: Scoreboard −2
• TXSTL 31-54 vs TXST23% → 0%Before kickoff −27 · On the field −23: Scoreboard −30, Clock −1

Points of win probability, from Georgia State's side.

Closest call

GAST 42-40 CCU (2021) - Georgia State dropped to a 1.4% win probability before pulling it out.