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AF

Air Force 48 at Georgia State 38

GAST
2014 · Week 3 · Sep 13, 2014 · Georgia Dome
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Win probability · GAST
modelGAST aheadAF aheadconfidence bandkey playGAST scoreAF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of GameFG+3GAST 17.0%Wil Lutz 33 yd FG GOODAWAY 28 - HOME 10 · Q2 1:03
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 1:03 · Wil Lutz 33 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+45.5+22.80−22.8−45.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 89Home team on offense−14.4Pregame prior−12.7Score differential−9.4Garbage-time factor−4.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 4:21: Kale Pearson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Will Conant KICK) — AF win probability +7.5 pts (now 87%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 6:47: Kale Pearson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Will Conant KICK) — AF win probability +8.7 pts (now 96%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 1:50: Nick Arbuckle run for 1 yd for a TD, (Wil Lutz KICK) — GAST win probability +8.4 pts (now 15%) (top driver: GAST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 10:34: Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Lynquez Blair for 13 yds for a TD, (Wil Lutz KICK) — GAST win probability +7.4 pts (now 11%) (top driver: GAST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 4:57: Duvall Smith run for 2 yds for a TD, (Wil Lutz KICK) — GAST win probability +9.3 pts (now 13%) (top driver: GAST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
GAST made the numbers' call on 6 of 6AF made the numbers' call on 2 of 5
  1. Q1 12:06GAST 4th & 1 at AF 20, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 28.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    28.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    28.3%−0.1
    75% to make
    Punt
    27.8%−0.6
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:17GAST 4th & 25 at AF 44, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.9%−1.1
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    26.4%−0.6
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    27.0%
    average punt
  3. Q2 15:00AF 4th & 1 at AF 33, up 14
    Close callPunted · 75.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.3%−0.9
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:49AF 4th & 5 at AF 44, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.9%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.0%
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:05GAST 4th & 25 at GAST 34, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.7%−2.0
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.7%
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:03GAST 4th & 8 at AF 16, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 14.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.4%−0.5
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    13.9%
    81% to make
    Punt
    11.3%−2.5
    average punt
  7. Q3 15:00GAST 4th & 10 at GAST 40, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.1%−0.5
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.6%
    average punt
  8. Q3 12:43AF 4th & 16 at AF 30, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.6%−1.5
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.0%
    average punt
  9. Q3 5:23GAST 4th & 1 at GAST 34, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.9%−0.9
    average punt
  10. Q4 5:31AF 4th & 5 at GAST 23, up 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 94.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.3%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    94.3%−<0.1
    70% to make
    Punt
    90.8%−3.5
    average punt
  11. Q4 1:16AF 4th & 4 at GAST 27, up 10
    Close callWent for it · 94.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    93.6%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    93.6%
    62% to make
    Punt
    90.2%−3.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
GAST made the numbers' call on 5 of 5AF made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 12:06AF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:17AF Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 12:49GAST Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 9:05AF Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 4:21AF Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 8:31GAST Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    14.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    14.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 6:47AF Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 1:50GAST Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    12.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    12.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 12:38AF Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 10:34GAST Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    7.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 4:57GAST Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    10.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    9.9%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
AFDrive 1TD
10 plays · 73 yds · 2:5473% → 73%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
27.1%
Jacobi Owens run for 4 yds to the AFA 31Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 31
+9
27.1%
Jacobi Owens run for 9 yds to the AFA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
27.1%
Jacobi Owens run for 2 yds to the AFA 42Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+12
27.1%
Jacobi Owens run for 12 yds to the GeoSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+14
27.1%
Devin Rushing run for 14 yds to the GeoSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+10
27.1%
Kale Pearson pass complete to Myles Barnes for 10 yds to the GeoSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+20
27.1%
Devin Rushing run for 20 yds to the GeoSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
27.1%
Devin Rushing run for no gain to the GeoSt 2Similar
Q1 12:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
27.4%
Jacobi Owens run for 2 yds for a TD, (Will Conant KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 2DOWNS
11 plays · 58 yds · 0:0028% → 28%
Q1 12:06
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
27.6%
Kyler Neal run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 25Similar
Q1 12:06
2ND & 7
OWN 25
+9
27.7%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Donovan Harden for 9 yds to the GeoSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:06
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+7
27.7%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Joel Ruiz for 7 yds to the GeoSt 41Similar
Q1 12:06
2ND & 3
OWN 41
+11
27.8%
Kyler Neal run for 11 yds to the AFA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:06
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-1
27.9%
Nick Arbuckle sacked by Jordan Pierce for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 49Similar
Q1 12:06
2ND & 11
OPP 49
+20
27.8%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Lynquez Blair for 20 yds to the AFA 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:06
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
28.0%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Lynquez BlairSimilar
Q1 12:06
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+4
28.0%
Kyler Neal run for 4 yds to the AFA 25Similar
Q1 12:06
3RD & 6
OPP 25
+5
27.9%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Lynquez Blair for 5 yds to the AFA 20Similar
Q1 12:06
4TH & 1
OPP 20
0
27.8%
Jonathan Lytle run for no gain to the AFA 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 3TD
7 plays · 80 yds · 2:3772% → 75%
Q1 7:54
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+17
28.1%
Jacobi Owens run for 17 yds to the AFA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:54
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
27.8%
Jacobi Owens run for 6 yds to the AFA 43Similar
Q1 7:54
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+8
27.6%
Jacobi Owens run for 8 yds to the GeoSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:54
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
27.5%
Devin Rushing run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 44Similar
Q1 7:54
2ND & 5
OPP 44
+4
27.5%
Devin Rushing run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 40Similar
Q1 7:54
3RD & 1
OPP 40
+3
27.6%
D.J. Johnson run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:17
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+37
24.6%
Kale Pearson pass complete to Garrett Brown for 37 yds for a TD, (Will Conant KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 4PUNT
9 plays · 25 yds · 0:0026% → 26%
Q1 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+30
25.9%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Donovan Harden for 30 yds to the AFA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:17
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
26.6%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Robert DavisSimilar
Q1 5:17
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+4
26.6%
Kyler Neal run for 4 yds to the AFA 35Similar
Q1 5:17
3RD & 6
OPP 35
+6
26.5%
Nick Arbuckle run for 6 yds to the AFA 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:17
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-17
26.8%
Blair, Lynquez pass incomplete to Boyd, Todd, PENALTY GSU intentional grounding 17 yards to the AF46, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:17
2ND & 27
OPP 46
+2
26.3%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Robert Davis for 2 yds to the AFA 44Similar
Q1 5:17
3RD & 25
OPP 44
0
26.1%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Robert DavisSimilar
Q1 5:17
4TH & 25
OPP 44
0
26.0%
Matt Hubbard punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Jalen Robinette at the AFA 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 2:4076% → 76%
Q1 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+1
24.5%
Jacobi Owens run for 1 yd to the AFA 14Similar
Q1 2:40
2ND & 9
OWN 14
+6
24.5%
Broam Hart run for 6 yds to the AFA 20Similar
Q1 2:40
3RD & 3
OWN 20
+4
24.7%
Kale Pearson pass complete to Garrett Brown for 4 yds to the AFA 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+6
24.4%
Jacobi Owens run for 6 yds to the AFA 30Similar
Q1 2:40
2ND & 4
OWN 30
+3
24.2%
Broam Hart run for 3 yds to the AFA 33Similar
Q1 2:40
3RD & 1
OWN 33
0
24.4%
Jacobi Owens run for no gain to the AFA 33Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 33
0
24.0%
Will Conant punt for 23 yds, downed at the GeoSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 6TD
4 plays · 56 yds · 2:0126% → 32%
Q2 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+16
25.6%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Joel Ruiz for 16 yds to the AFA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:50
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+11
25.7%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Donovan Harden for 11 yds to the AFA 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:50
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+4
26.0%
Nick Arbuckle run for 4 yds to the AFA 25Similar
Q2 12:49
2ND & 6
OPP 25
+25
31.5%
Kyler Neal run for 25 yds for a TD, (Wil Lutz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 31 yds · 0:0071% → 71%
Q2 12:49
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+11
29.0%
Kale Pearson pass complete to Jalen Robinette for 11 yds to the AFA 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:49
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+15
28.8%
Kale Pearson pass complete to Jalen Robinette for 15 yds to the AFA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:49
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
27.9%
Jacobi Owens run for 2 yds to the AFA 41Similar
Q2 12:49
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+1
27.8%
Garrett Brown run for 1 yd to the AFA 42Similar
Q2 12:49
3RD & 7
OWN 42
+2
28.1%
Devin Rushing run for 2 yds to the AFA 44Similar
Q2 12:49
4TH & 5
OWN 44
0
28.7%
Will Conant punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the GeoSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 8INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0029% → 29%
Q2 10:39
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+6
29.4%
Nick Arbuckle pass intercepted Jordan Pierce return for 6 yds to the GeoSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 9TD
5 plays · 14 yds · 1:2673% → 79%
Q2 10:31
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
27.4%
Kale Pearson run for no gain to the GeoSt 14Similar
Q2 10:31
2ND & 10
OPP 14
0
27.4%
Kale Pearson pass complete to Jacobi Owens for no gain to the GeoSt 14Similar
Q2 9:15
3RD & 10
OPP 14
+7
28.2%
PEARSON, Kale pass incomplete to BROWN, Garrett, PENALTY GSU holding 7 yards to the GSU7, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:05
3RD & 3
OPP 7
+7
21.3%
Jacobi Owens run for 7 yds for a TD, (Will Conant KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 10PUNT
8 plays · -1 yds · 0:0023% → 22%
Q2 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
23.1%
Kyler Neal run for no gain to the GeoSt 35Similar
Q2 9:05
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+14
22.9%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Kyler Neal for 14 yds to the GeoSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
24.1%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q2 9:05
2ND & 10
OWN 49
-15
24.0%
Arbuckle, Nick pass complete to Blair, Lynquez for 38 yards to the AF13 (STEELHAMMER, We), PENALTY GSU personal foul 15 yards to the GSU34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:05
2ND & 25
OWN 34
0
22.7%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Robert DavisSimilar
Q2 9:05
3RD & 25
OWN 34
0
22.4%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Lynquez BlairSimilar
Q2 9:05
4TH & 25
OWN 34
0
22.4%
Matt Hubbard punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Jalen Robinette at the AFA 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 11TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:5778% → 87%
Q2 7:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
21.6%
Jacobi Owens run for 3 yds to the AFA 28Similar
Q2 7:18
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+6
21.6%
Kale Pearson run for 6 yds to the AFA 34Similar
Q2 7:18
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+6
21.7%
Jacobi Owens run for 6 yds to the AFA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:18
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
20.9%
Jacobi Owens run for 4 yds to the AFA 44Similar
Q2 7:18
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+7
20.8%
Jacobi Owens run for 7 yds to the GeoSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:18
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+44
20.8%
Kale Pearson pass complete to Jalen Robinette for 44 yds to the GeoSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
20.7%
Jacobi Owens run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 1Similar
Q2 4:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
13.2%
Kale Pearson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Will Conant KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 12FG
12 plays · 68 yds · 3:1814% → 17%
Q2 4:21
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+4
14.3%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Kyler Neal for 4 yds to the GeoSt 20Similar
Q2 4:21
2ND & 6
OWN 20
+15
14.2%
Arbuckle, Nick pass incomplete to Davis, Robert, PENALTY AF pass interference 15 yards to the GSU35, 1ST DOWN GSU, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:21
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+23
14.5%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Joel Ruiz for 23 yds to the AFA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:21
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
15.7%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Joel RuizSimilar
Q2 4:21
2ND & 10
OPP 42
0
15.6%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Robert Davis, broken up by Justin DeCoudSimilar
Q2 4:21
3RD & 10
OPP 42
+24
15.4%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Joel Ruiz for 24 yds to the AFA 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:21
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+2
16.2%
Kyler Neal run for 2 yds to the AFA 16Similar
Q2 4:21
2ND & 8
OPP 16
+4
16.2%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Robert Davis for 4 yds to the AFA 12Similar
Q2 4:21
3RD & 4
OPP 12
-4
15.8%
Nick Arbuckle sacked by Connor Healy and Troy Timmerman for a loss of 4 yards to the AFA 16Similar
Q2 1:03
4TH & 8
OPP 16
+33
17.0%
Wil Lutz 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 13FG
11 plays · 70 yds · 1:0388% → 92%
Q2 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
12.3%
Jacobi Owens run for 10 yds to the AFA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
12.2%
Kale Pearson pass incomplete to Jalen RobinetteSimilar
Q2 1:03
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+2
12.3%
Kale Pearson run for 2 yds to the AFA 37Similar
Q2 1:03
3RD & 8
OWN 37
+11
12.3%
Kale Pearson pass complete to Garrett Brown for 11 yds to the AFA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
11.6%
Kale Pearson run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 48Similar
Q2 0:08
2ND & 6
OPP 48
-5
11.4%
AIR FORCE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the AFA 47Similar
Q2 0:08
2ND & 11
OWN 47
+48
11.9%
Kale Pearson pass complete to Jalen Robinette for 48 yds to the GeoSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+22
8.5%
Will Conant 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 14PUNT
8 plays · 11 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
12.2%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Joel Ruiz for 5 yds to the GeoSt 34Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 34
+1
12.5%
Kyler Neal run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 35Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 35
+5
12.5%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Donovan Harden for 5 yds to the GeoSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
12.9%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Joel RuizSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
12.4%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Donovan HardenSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 40
0
12.3%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Robert DavisSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 10
OWN 40
0
12.1%
Matt Hubbard punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the AFA 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 0:0091% → 91%
Q3 12:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
8.6%
Jacobi Owens run for no gain to the AFA 25Similar
Q3 12:43
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+11
8.6%
Kale Pearson pass complete to Garrett Brown for 11 yds to the AFA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:43
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-10
8.4%
Kale Pearson run for a loss of 10 yards to the AFA 26Similar
Q3 12:43
2ND & 20
OWN 26
+4
8.7%
Broam Hart run for 4 yds to the AFA 30Similar
Q3 12:43
3RD & 16
OWN 30
0
8.9%
Kale Pearson pass incomplete to Jalen RobinetteSimilar
Q3 12:43
4TH & 16
OWN 30
0
9.1%
Will Conant punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Donovan Harden at the GeoSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 16TD
5 plays · 82 yds · 1:5810% → 19%
Q3 10:29
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+6
10.4%
Nick Arbuckle run for 6 yds to the GeoSt 24Similar
Q3 10:29
2ND & 4
OWN 24
+25
10.5%
Kyler Neal run for 25 yds to the GeoSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:29
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
11.4%
Duvall Smith run for 4 yds to the AFA 47Similar
Q3 10:29
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+32
11.6%
Duvall Smith run for 32 yds to the AFA 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:31
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
18.6%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Lynquez Blair for 15 yds for a TD, (Wil Lutz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 17TD
6 plays · 63 yds · 1:4486% → 96%
Q3 8:31
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
13.9%
Jacobi Owens run for 4 yds to the AFA 41Similar
Q3 8:31
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+15
13.5%
OWENS, Jacobi rush for no gain to the AF41 (Payne, Trey), PENALTY GSU personal foul 15 yards to the GSU44, 1ST DOWN AF, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:31
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+42
13.2%
Garrett Brown run for 42 yds to the GeoSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
12.9%
D.J. Johnson run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 1Similar
Q3 6:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
4.1%
Kale Pearson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Will Conant KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 18TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 4:578% → 15%
Q3 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-7
7.6%
Nick Arbuckle sacked by Alex Hansen and Connor Healy for a loss of 7 yards to the GeoSt 18Similar
Q3 6:47
2ND & 17
OWN 18
0
7.5%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Robert Davis, broken up by Gavin McHenrySimilar
Q3 6:47
3RD & 17
OWN 18
+16
7.4%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Duvall Smith for 16 yds to the GeoSt 34Similar
Q3 5:23
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+2
5.4%
Duvall Smith run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:23
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
5.4%
Nick Arbuckle run for no gain to the GeoSt 36Similar
Q3 5:23
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+6
5.3%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Nathaniel Minor for 6 yds to the GeoSt 42Similar
Q3 5:23
3RD & 4
OWN 42
+7
5.6%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Robert Davis for 7 yds to the GeoSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:23
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+13
5.7%
Duvall Smith run for 13 yds to the AFA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:23
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+20
5.9%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Donovan Harden for 20 yds to the AFA 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:23
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-3
6.4%
Duvall Smith run for a loss of 3 yards to the AFA 21Similar
Q3 5:23
2ND & 13
OPP 21
+20
6.2%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Joel Ruiz for 20 yds to the AFA 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
14.6%
Nick Arbuckle run for 1 yd for a TD, (Wil Lutz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 19TD
11 plays · 68 yds · 4:1289% → 98%
Q3 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
10.8%
Kale Pearson pass incomplete to Jacobi OwensSimilar
Q3 1:50
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+13
10.9%
Broam Hart run for 13 yds to the AFA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-4
10.0%
Jacobi Owens run for a loss of 4 yards to the AFA 41Similar
Q3 1:50
2ND & 14
OWN 41
+13
10.5%
Garrett Brown run for 13 yds to the GeoSt 46Similar
Q3 1:50
3RD & 1
OPP 46
+2
9.6%
Kale Pearson run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
9.1%
Broam Hart run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 40Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 40
-1
8.7%
Kale Pearson run for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSt 41Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 41
+15
9.3%
OWENS, Jacobi rush for loss of 3 yards to the GSU44 (Batiste, Tarris), PENALTY GSU personal foul 15 yards to the GSU26, 1ST DOWN AF, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+4
8.6%
Broam Hart run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 22Similar
Q4 12:38
2ND & 6
OPP 22
+22
1.8%
Kale Pearson pass complete to Garrett Brown for 22 yds for a TD, (Will Conant KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 20TD
9 plays · 83 yds · 2:043% → 11%
Q4 12:38
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+29
2.5%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Robert Davis for 29 yds to the GeoSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:38
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+15
2.7%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Donovan Harden for 15 yds to the AFA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:38
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
2.8%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Donovan Harden, broken up by Nick FitzgeraldSimilar
Q4 12:38
2ND & 10
OPP 39
0
2.8%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Robert DavisSimilar
Q4 12:38
3RD & 10
OPP 39
+21
2.8%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Lynquez Blair for 21 yds to the AFA 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:38
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+5
3.0%
Kyler Neal run for 5 yds to the AFA 13Similar
Q4 12:38
2ND & 5
OPP 13
0
3.0%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Lynquez Blair, broken up by Dexter WalkerSimilar
Q4 10:34
3RD & 5
OPP 13
+13
10.5%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Lynquez Blair for 13 yds for a TD, (Wil Lutz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 21FG
12 plays · 48 yds · 5:0394% → 97%
Q4 10:34
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+20
6.4%
D.J. Johnson run for 20 yds to the AFA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:34
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
5.9%
D.J. Johnson run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 48Similar
Q4 10:34
2ND & 7
OPP 48
+6
5.9%
Jacobi Owens run for 6 yds to the GeoSt 42Similar
Q4 10:34
3RD & 1
OPP 42
+3
5.8%
D.J. Johnson run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:34
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
5.9%
Broam Hart run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 35Similar
Q4 10:34
2ND & 6
OPP 35
+7
5.7%
Jacobi Owens run for 7 yds to the GeoSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:34
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+2
5.7%
Broam Hart run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 26Similar
Q4 10:34
2ND & 8
OPP 26
+4
5.7%
Broam Hart run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 22Similar
Q4 10:34
3RD & 4
OPP 22
-1
5.8%
Jacobi Owens run for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSt 23Similar
Q4 5:31
4TH & 5
OPP 23
+41
3.2%
Will Conant 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 22TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:343% → 13%
Q4 5:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+73
3.4%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Kyler Neal for 73 yds to the AFA 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
12.5%
Duvall Smith run for 2 yds for a TD, (Wil Lutz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 23END OF GAME
12 plays · 24 yds · 3:4192% → 96%
Q4 4:57
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
7.9%
Devin Rushing run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 41Similar
Q4 4:57
2ND & 7
OPP 41
+1
7.9%
Devin Rushing run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 40Similar
Q4 4:57
3RD & 6
OPP 40
+7
8.6%
Broam Hart run for 7 yds to the GeoSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:57
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+1
7.6%
D.J. Johnson run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 32Similar
Q4 2:49
2ND & 9
OPP 32
+6
5.4%
Garrett Brown run for 6 yds to the GeoSt 26Similar
Q4 2:49
3RD & 3
OPP 26
-1
5.4%
D.J. Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSt 27Similar
Q4 1:16
4TH & 4
OPP 27
+11
4.2%
Kale Pearson pass complete to Garrett Brown for 11 yds to the GeoSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:16
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-2
3.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the GeoSt 18Similar
Q4 1:16
2ND & 12
OPP 18
-2
3.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the GeoSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 4:57
Duvall Smith run for 2 yds for a TD, (Wil Lutz KICK)
+9.3
TD · Q3 6:47
Kale Pearson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Will Conant KICK)
-8.7
TD · Q3 1:50
Nick Arbuckle run for 1 yd for a TD, (Wil Lutz KICK)
+8.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com