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GAST

Georgia State 0 at App State 44

APP
2014 · Week 10 · Nov 1, 2014 · Kidd Brewer Stadium
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Win probability · APP
modelAPP aheadGAST aheadconfidence bandkey playAPP scoreGAST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 10:25 · Matt Hubbard punt for 41 yds, downed at the AppSt 16
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 110Home team on offense+29.3Score differential+24.5Pregame prior+6.6Blowout margin+12.4Garbage-time factor+7.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+5.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 11:03: Marcus Cox run for 1 yd for a TD, (Bentlee Critcher KICK) — APP win probability +1.3 pts (now 67%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 3:53: Taylor Lamb run for 9 yds for a TD, (Bentlee Critcher PAT MISSED) — APP win probability +5.3 pts (now 74%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 12:35: Marcus Cox run for 6 yds for a TD, (Bentlee Critcher KICK) — APP win probability +8.0 pts (now 85%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 0:00: Simms McElfresh run for 13 yds for a TD, (Bentlee Critcher KICK) — APP win probability +5.4 pts (now 98%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 10:25: Marcus Cox run for 5 yds for a TD, (Bentlee Critcher KICK) — APP win probability +0.9 pts (now 99%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
APP made the numbers' call on 5 of 6GAST made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 10:53GAST 4th & 6 at APP 46, down 7
    Close callPunted · 33.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.4%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    33.2%−0.1
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    33.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 3:53GAST 4th & 3 at GAST 32, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.8%−0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.9%
    average punt
  3. Q2 15:00APP 4th & 2 at GAST 42, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 75.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    75.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    74.0%−1.6
    30% to make
    Punt
    74.5%−1.2
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:31GAST 4th & 14 at GAST 28, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.5%−1.3
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.9%
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:25APP 4th & 2 at GAST 27, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 85.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    85.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    84.9%−0.7
    62% to make
    Punt
    82.0%−3.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 3:20APP 4th & 12 at GAST 27, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 90.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.6%−0.8
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    90.4%
    62% to make
    Punt
    87.5%−2.9
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:20GAST 4th & 9 at GAST 28, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.2%−0.8
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.0%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:00APP 4th & 6 at GAST 13, up 20
    Close callWent for it · 93.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    92.5%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    92.7%
    85% to make
    Punt
    87.5%−5.2
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:25GAST 4th & 12 at GAST 43, down 34
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.0%−0.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.1%
    average punt
  10. Q3 4:43APP 4th & 9 at GAST 9, up 34
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.4%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.5%
    89% to make
    Punt
    99.0%−0.5
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:34GAST 4th & 18 at GAST 25, down 37
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%−0.2
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.5%
    average punt
  12. Q3 3:00APP 4th & 15 at APP 31, up 37
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.5%−0.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.7%
    average punt
  13. Q4 11:08GAST 4th & 9 at GAST 26, down 44
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
APP made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 11:03APP Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:53APP Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    73.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 12:35APP Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:00APP Touchdown, up 26 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 10:25APP Touchdown, up 33 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 11:08APP Touchdown, up 43 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
GASTDrive 1INT
6 plays · 5 yds · 0:0034% → 34%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
65.7%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Glenn Smith for 9 yds to the GeoSt 34Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+4
65.7%
Marcus Caffey run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-8
65.7%
Nick Arbuckle run for a loss of 8 yards to the GeoSt 28 Nick Arbuckle fumbled, recovered by GeoSt Nick ArbuckleSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 20
OWN 28
+2
65.7%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Joel Ruiz for 2 yds to the GeoSt 30Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 18
OWN 30
+6
65.7%
Nick Arbuckle pass intercepted John Law return for 6 yds to the GeoSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 2TD
5 plays · 33 yds · 1:3466% → 67%
Q1 12:37
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
65.9%
Marcus Cox run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 28Similar
Q1 12:37
2ND & 5
OPP 28
+8
65.9%
Marcus Cox run for 8 yds to the GeoSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:37
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+15
65.9%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Barrett Burns for 15 yds to the GeoSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
65.9%
Marcus Cox run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 1Similar
Q1 11:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
67.2%
Marcus Cox run for 1 yd for a TD, (Bentlee Critcher KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 3PUNT
9 plays · 25 yds · 0:0033% → 33%
Q1 10:53
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+6
66.6%
Marcus Caffey run for 6 yds to the GeoSt 35Similar
Q1 10:53
2ND & 4
OWN 35
+2
66.5%
Marcus Caffey run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 39 Marcus Caffey fumbled, forced by Eric Boggs, for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:53
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
66.4%
Marcus Caffey run for 8 yds to the GeoSt 47Similar
Q1 10:53
2ND & 2
OWN 47
+3
66.3%
Marcus Caffey run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:53
1ST & 10
50
+4
66.3%
Duvall Smith run for 4 yds to the AppSt 46Similar
Q1 10:53
2ND & 6
OPP 46
0
66.3%
Duvall Smith run for no gain to the AppSt 46Similar
Q1 10:53
3RD & 6
OPP 46
0
66.3%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Donovan HardenSimilar
Q1 10:53
4TH & 6
OPP 46
0
66.6%
Matt Hubbard punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the AppSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 4TD
11 plays · 90 yds · 3:5368% → 74%
Q1 7:46
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+39
67.5%
Marcus Cox run for 39 yds to the AppSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:46
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
68.1%
Taylor Lamb pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:46
2ND & 10
OWN 49
0
68.0%
Ricky Fergerson run for no gain to the AppSt 49Similar
Q1 7:46
3RD & 10
OWN 49
+10
67.6%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Bobo Beathard for 10 yds to the APPALCHAN 41 for a 1ST down GEORGIA ST Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:46
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+19
68.2%
Marcus Cox run for 19 yds to the GeoSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:46
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+9
68.2%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Simms McElfresh for 9 yds to the GeoSt 13Similar
Q1 7:46
2ND & 1
OPP 13
+4
68.2%
Marcus Cox run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-5
68.2%
APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the GeoSt 14Similar
Q1 7:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 14
+1
68.2%
Marcus Cox run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 13Similar
Q1 7:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 13
+4
68.2%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Marcus Cox for 4 yds to the GeoSt 9Similar
Q1 3:53
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
73.5%
Taylor Lamb run for 9 yds for a TD, (Bentlee Critcher PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0029% → 29%
Q1 3:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
71.2%
Marcus Caffey run for no gain to the GeoSt 25Similar
Q1 3:53
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-4
71.3%
Nick Arbuckle sacked by Olawale Dada for a loss of 4 yards to the GeoSt 21Similar
Q1 3:53
3RD & 14
OWN 21
+11
71.5%
Marcus Caffey run for 11 yds to the GeoSt 32Similar
Q1 3:53
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
71.4%
Matt Hubbard punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Simms McElfresh at the AppSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 6DOWNS
7 plays · 19 yds · 2:0575% → 75%
Q1 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+8
74.8%
Ricky Fergerson run for 8 yds to the AppSt 48Similar
Q1 2:05
2ND & 2
OWN 48
0
74.9%
Taylor Lamb pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:05
3RD & 2
OWN 48
+2
74.5%
Ricky Fergerson run for 2 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:05
1ST & 10
50
-5
75.0%
Ricky Fergerson run for a loss of 5 yards to the AppSt 45Similar
Q1 2:05
2ND & 15
OWN 45
+1
74.6%
Taylor Lamb run for 1 yd to the AppSt 46Similar
Q1 2:05
3RD & 14
OWN 46
+12
74.2%
Ricky Fergerson run for 12 yds to the GeoSt 42Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 2
OPP 42
+1
75.1%
Ricky Fergerson run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 7FUMBLE
4 plays · -6 yds · 0:0027% → 27%
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
72.8%
Nick Arbuckle pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 10
OWN 41
-5
72.9%
GEORGIA ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the GeoSt 36Similar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 15
OWN 36
-1
73.3%
Duvall Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSt 35Similar
Q2 14:53
3RD & 16
OWN 35
+17
73.5%
Duvall Smith run for a loss of 2 yards to the GeoSt 18 Duvall Smith fumbled, forced by Olawale Dada, recovered by AppSt John Law , return for 17 yds to the GeoSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 8TD
4 plays · 18 yds · 1:2077% → 85%
Q2 13:55
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+2
76.9%
Marcus Cox run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 16Similar
Q2 13:55
2ND & 8
OPP 16
-3
76.9%
APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, illegal forward pass (Taylor Lamb) to the GeoSt 19Similar
Q2 13:55
3RD & 11
OPP 19
+13
76.6%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Malachi Jones for 13 yds to the GeoSt 6 for a 1ST down GEORGIA ST Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
84.6%
Marcus Cox run for 6 yds for a TD, (Bentlee Critcher KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q2 12:31
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-4
83.9%
Nick Arbuckle sacked by Deuce Robinson for a loss of 4 yards to the GeoSt 28Similar
Q2 12:31
2ND & 14
OWN 28
+5
84.4%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Avery Sweeting for 5 yds to the GeoSt 33Similar
Q2 12:31
3RD & 9
OWN 33
-5
84.3%
Nick Arbuckle sacked by Deuce Robinson and Eric Boggs for a loss of 5 yards to the GeoSt 28Similar
Q2 12:31
4TH & 14
OWN 28
0
84.5%
Matt Hubbard punt for 52 yds , Bobo Beathard returns for no gain to the AppSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 10MISSED FG
16 plays · 53 yds · 7:0586% → 91%
Q2 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
86.2%
Marcus Cox run for no gain to the AppSt 20Similar
Q2 10:25
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+12
86.1%
Marcus Cox run for 12 yds to the AppSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
86.2%
Marcus Cox run for 4 yds to the AppSt 36Similar
Q2 10:25
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+7
86.3%
Marcus Cox run for 7 yds to the AppSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
86.6%
Ricky Fergerson run for no gain to the AppSt 43Similar
Q2 10:25
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+12
86.5%
Ricky Fergerson run for 12 yds to the GeoSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:25
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+10
86.6%
Bobo Beathard run for 10 yds to the GeoSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:25
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
86.6%
Taylor Lamb run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 34Similar
Q2 10:25
2ND & 9
OPP 34
0
86.6%
Taylor Lamb pass incomplete to Malachi JonesSimilar
Q2 10:25
3RD & 9
OPP 34
+7
86.3%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Simms McElfresh for 7 yds to the GeoSt 27Similar
Q2 10:25
4TH & 2
OPP 27
+2
85.9%
Marcus Cox run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:25
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-5
86.6%
APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the GeoSt 30Similar
Q2 10:25
1ST & 15
OPP 30
+3
86.6%
Marcus Cox run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 27Similar
Q2 10:25
2ND & 12
OPP 27
0
86.6%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Marcus Cox for no gain to the GeoSt 27Similar
Q2 10:25
3RD & 12
OPP 27
0
86.3%
Taylor Lamb pass incomplete to Malachi JonesSimilar
Q2 3:20
4TH & 12
OPP 27
+44
90.9%
Bentlee Critcher 44 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q2 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
89.8%
Nick Arbuckle pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:20
2ND & 10
OWN 27
-5
90.1%
GEORGIA ST Penalty, false start (Joel Ruiz) to the GeoSt 22Similar
Q2 3:20
2ND & 15
OWN 22
0
90.2%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Donovan HardenSimilar
Q2 3:20
3RD & 15
OWN 22
+6
90.3%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Donovan Harden for 6 yds to the GeoSt 28Similar
Q2 3:20
4TH & 9
OWN 28
0
90.2%
Matt Hubbard punt for 10 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the GeoSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 12TD
13 plays · 38 yds · 2:3592% → 97%
Q2 2:35
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
91.9%
Marcus Cox run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 34Similar
Q2 2:35
2ND & 6
OPP 34
+6
91.9%
Marcus Cox run for 6 yds to the GeoSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:35
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+7
91.9%
Marcus Cox run for 7 yds to the GeoSt 21Similar
Q2 2:35
2ND & 3
OPP 21
+4
91.9%
Marcus Cox run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:35
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+3
91.9%
Marcus Cox run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 14Similar
Q2 0:34
2ND & 7
OPP 14
+4
93.4%
Taylor Lamb run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 10Similar
Q2 0:25
3RD & 3
OPP 10
-3
93.8%
Taylor Lamb run for a loss of 3 yards to the GeoSt 13Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 6
OPP 13
+13
97.8%
Simms McElfresh run for 13 yds for a TD, (Bentlee Critcher KICK)Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OWN 35
+15
97.4%
APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (15 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 13TD
9 plays · 78 yds · 4:3098% → 99%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
98.1%
Marcus Cox run for no gain to the AppSt 22Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+3
98.1%
Taylor Lamb run for 3 yds to the AppSt 25Similar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 7
OWN 25
+9
98.1%
Marcus Cox run for 9 yds to the AppSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+14
98.1%
Taylor Lamb run for 14 yds to the AppSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
98.2%
Marcus Cox run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 47Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 5
OPP 47
+32
98.2%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Montez McGuire for 32 yds to the GeoSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+10
98.2%
Marcus Cox run for 10 yds to the GeoSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
99.1%
Marcus Cox run for 5 yds for a TD, (Bentlee Critcher KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 14PUNT
11 plays · 18 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
98.9%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Robert Davis for 3 yds to the GeoSt 28Similar
Q3 10:25
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+6
98.9%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Donovan Harden for 6 yds to the GeoSt 34Similar
Q3 10:25
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+1
98.8%
Gerald Howse run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
98.9%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Robert DavisSimilar
Q3 10:25
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
98.9%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Robert Davis, broken up by Latrell GibbsSimilar
Q3 10:25
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+10
98.9%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Joel Ruiz for 10 yds to the GeoSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
98.9%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Avery SweetingSimilar
Q3 10:25
2ND & 10
OWN 45
-8
98.9%
Nick Arbuckle sacked by Ronald Blair for a loss of 8 yards to the GeoSt 37Similar
Q3 10:25
3RD & 18
OWN 37
+6
99.0%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Robert Davis for 6 yds to the GeoSt 43Similar
Q3 10:25
4TH & 12
OWN 43
0
98.9%
Matt Hubbard punt for 41 yds, downed at the AppSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 15FG
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:5399% → 100%
Q3 6:36
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+76
99.4%
Marcus Cox run for 76 yds to the GeoSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
99.5%
Marcus Cox run for no gain to the GeoSt 8Similar
Q3 6:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
99.5%
Marcus Cox run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 4Similar
Q3 6:36
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
99.4%
Taylor Lamb pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:36
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
-5
99.4%
APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the GeoSt 9Similar
Q3 4:43
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+26
99.6%
Bentlee Critcher 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · -8 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 4:34
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
99.6%
Nick Arbuckle pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:34
2ND & 10
OWN 33
-5
99.6%
Nick Arbuckle run for a loss of 5 yards to the GeoSt 23 Nick Arbuckle fumbled, recovered by GeoSt Nick ArbuckleSimilar
Q3 4:34
3RD & 20
OWN 23
+2
99.6%
Gerald Howse run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 25Similar
Q3 4:34
4TH & 18
OWN 25
0
99.6%
Matt Hubbard punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Bobo Beathard at the AppSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-1
99.6%
Ricky Fergerson run for a loss of 1 yard to the AppSt 35Similar
Q3 3:00
2ND & 11
OWN 35
-1
99.6%
Ricky Fergerson run for a loss of 1 yard to the AppSt 34Similar
Q3 3:00
3RD & 12
OWN 34
-2
99.6%
Kameron Bryant run for a loss of 2 yards to the AppSt 31 Kameron Bryant fumbled, recovered by AppSt Kameron BryantSimilar
Q3 3:00
4TH & 15
OWN 31
+35
99.6%
Bentlee Critcher punt for 37 yds , Donovan Harden returns for 35 yds to the APPALCHAN 34 APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, personal foul (Bentlee Critcher) to the AppSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 18FUMBLE
6 plays · 13 yds · 0:400% → 0%
Q3 0:40
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+6
99.7%
Ronnie Bell run for 6 yds to the AppSt 12Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 12
0
99.7%
Ronnie Bell pass incomplete to Ronnie Bell, broken up by Joel RossSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 12
+7
99.7%
Ronnie Bell pass complete to Joel Ruiz for 7 yds to the AppSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
99.7%
Gerald Howse run for 3 yds to the AppSt 2Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
99.7%
Gerald Howse run for a loss of 1 yard to the AppSt 3Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
-2
99.7%
Ronnie Bell run for a loss of 2 yards to the AppSt 5 Ronnie Bell fumbled, recovered by AppSt Deuce RobinsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 19TD
4 plays · 95 yds · 1:54100% → 100%
Q4 13:02
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+4
99.8%
Ricky Fergerson run for 4 yds to the AppSt 9Similar
Q4 13:02
2ND & 6
OWN 9
+84
99.8%
Ricky Fergerson run for 84 yds to the GeoSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
99.8%
Ricky Fergerson run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 4Similar
Q4 11:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
99.9%
Ricky Fergerson run for 4 yds for a TD, (Bentlee Critcher KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.9%
Gerald Howse run for no gain to the GeoSt 25Similar
Q4 11:08
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
99.9%
Gerald Howse run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 26Similar
Q4 11:08
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
99.9%
Gerald Howse run for no gain to the GeoSt 26Similar
Q4 11:08
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
99.9%
Matt Hubbard punt for 34 yds, downed at the AppSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 21END OF GAME
14 plays · 55 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 9:19
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
99.9%
Eric Davidson run for 5 yds to the AppSt 45Similar
Q4 9:19
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+4
99.9%
Eric Davidson run for 4 yds to the AppSt 49Similar
Q4 9:19
3RD & 1
OWN 49
+10
99.9%
Kameron Bryant run for 10 yds to the GeoSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:19
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
99.9%
Eric Davidson run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 38Similar
Q4 9:19
2ND & 7
OPP 38
+2
99.9%
Eric Davidson run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 36Similar
Q4 9:19
3RD & 5
OPP 36
+8
99.9%
Kameron Bryant pass complete to Shaedon Meadors for 8 yds to the GeoSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:19
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+3
99.9%
Eric Davidson run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 25Similar
Q4 9:19
2ND & 7
OPP 25
+6
99.9%
Eric Davidson run for 6 yds to the GeoSt 19Similar
Q4 9:19
3RD & 1
OPP 19
+5
99.9%
Eric Davidson run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:19
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+3
99.9%
Eric Davidson run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 11Similar
Q4 9:19
2ND & 7
OPP 11
+6
99.9%
Kameron Bryant run for 6 yds to the GeoSt 5Similar
Q4 9:19
3RD & 1
OPP 5
+2
99.9%
Eric Davidson run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-1
99.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSt 4Similar
Q4 9:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-1
99.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSt 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 12:35
Marcus Cox run for 6 yds for a TD, (Bentlee Critcher KICK)
+8
TD · Q2 0:00
Simms McElfresh run for 13 yds for a TD, (Bentlee Critcher KICK)
+5.4
TD · Q1 3:53
Taylor Lamb run for 9 yds for a TD, (Bentlee Critcher PAT MISSED)
+5.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com