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ARST

Arkansas State 52 at Georgia State 10

GAST
2014 · Week 7 · Oct 11, 2014 · Georgia Dome
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Win probability · GAST
modelGAST aheadARST aheadconfidence bandkey playGAST scoreARST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 11:51 · Matt Hubbard punt for 42 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+58.0+29.00−29.0−58.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 66Home team on offense−14.6Score differential−7.1Pregame prior−22.2Garbage-time factor−2.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 3:20: Michael Gordon run for 50 yds for a TD, (Tres Houston KICK), (Luke Ferguson KICK) — ARST win probability +4.0 pts (now 82%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 0:00: Fredi Knighten pass complete to Kenneth Rains for 2 yds for a TD, (Luke Ferguson KICK), (Luke Ferguson KICK) — ARST win probability +4.7 pts (now 87%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:35: Johnston White run for 13 yds for a TD, (Luke Ferguson KICK) — ARST win probability +7.5 pts (now 95%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 12:40: Fredi Knighten run for 51 yds for a TD, (Luke Ferguson KICK) — ARST win probability +4.1 pts (now 98%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 4:43: Michael Gordon run for 11 yds for a TD, (Luke Ferguson KICK) ARKANSAS ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting ( Yards) to the ArkSt 35 — ARST win probability +0.6 pts (now 99%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
GAST made the numbers' call on 7 of 9ARST made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 15:00GAST 4th & 8 at ARST 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.1%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:56ARST 4th & 9 at GAST 10, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 78.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.9%−0.2
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    78.1%
    88% to make
    Punt
    76.7%−1.4
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:56GAST 4th & 9 at GAST 26, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.4%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.5%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:20GAST 4th & 18 at GAST 12, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.2%−0.9
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.1%
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00GAST 4th & 5 at GAST 46, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.9%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.9%
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:00ARST 4th & 1 at ARST 29, up 24
    Close callPunted · 88.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.2%−0.5
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:51GAST 4th & 17 at GAST 23, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.1%−1.3
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.3%
    average punt
  8. Q2 8:24ARST 4th & 8 at ARST 48, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.9%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.0%
    average punt
  9. Q2 8:17GAST 4th & 1 at GAST 33, down 24
    Close callPunted · 12.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.8%−0.7
    average punt
  10. Q2 2:22GAST 4th & 10 at ARST 10, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 11.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.7%−0.6
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    11.3%
    88% to make
    Punt
    8.1%−3.2
    average punt
  11. Q3 12:40GAST 4th & 5 at ARST 9, down 35
    Close callWent for it · 2.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.1%−<0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    2.1%
    89% to make
    Punt
    1.4%−0.7
    average punt
  12. Q3 4:43GAST 4th & 8 at ARST 40, down 42
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.7%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    0.6%−<0.1
    34% to make
    Punt
    0.6%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
GAST made the numbers' call on 0 of 1ARST made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
  1. Q1 8:32ARST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:20ARST Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:00ARST Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:35ARST Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 12:40ARST Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 4:43ARST Touchdown, up 41 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 9:55ARST Touchdown, up 48 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 3:49GAST Touchdown, down 43 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.2%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.2%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
GASTDrive 1PUNT
10 plays · 27 yds · 0:0021% → 21%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
21.0%
Dontavis Crocker run for 6 yds to the GeoSt 31Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+7
21.0%
Dontavis Crocker run for 7 yds to the GeoSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
21.0%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Donovan Harden, broken up by Andrew TryonSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+3
21.0%
Marcus Caffey run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 41Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 41
+9
21.0%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Lynquez Blair for 9 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
50
+4
21.0%
Marcus Caffey run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 46Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 46
-2
21.0%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Marcus Caffey for a loss of 2 yards to the ArkSt 48Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 48
0
21.0%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Joel RuizSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 8
OPP 48
0
21.0%
Wil Lutz punt for 33 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 2TD
9 plays · 85 yds · 3:1477% → 78%
Q1 11:46
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+5
22.6%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Booker Mays for 5 yds to the ArkSt 20Similar
Q1 11:46
2ND & 5
OWN 20
+4
22.6%
Fredi Knighten run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 24Similar
Q1 11:46
3RD & 1
OWN 24
+6
22.6%
Michael Gordon run for 6 yds to the ArkSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:46
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+8
22.5%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Tres Houston for 8 yds to the ArkSt 38Similar
Q1 11:46
2ND & 2
OWN 38
+8
22.4%
Michael Gordon run for 8 yds to the ArkSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:46
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+41
22.3%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Dijon Paschal for 41 yds to the GeoSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:46
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+5
22.2%
Johnston White run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 8Similar
Q1 11:46
2ND & 5
OPP 8
+1
22.2%
Michael Gordon run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 7Similar
Q1 8:32
3RD & 4
OPP 7
+7
21.9%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Darion Griswold for 7 yds for a TD, (Tres Houston KICK), (Luke Ferguson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 3FUMBLE
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0022% → 22%
Q1 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-1
22.4%
Marcus Caffey run for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSt 22 Marcus Caffey fumbled, forced by Qushaun Lee, recovered by ArkSt Caleb CastonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 4FG
7 plays · 12 yds · 2:2178% → 78%
Q1 8:17
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
21.9%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to Darion GriswoldSimilar
Q1 8:17
2ND & 10
OPP 22
-5
21.9%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the GeoSt 27Similar
Q1 8:17
2ND & 15
OPP 27
+16
22.0%
Fredi Knighten run for 16 yds to the GeoSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:17
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-3
21.9%
Michael Gordon run for a loss of 3 yards to the GeoSt 14Similar
Q1 8:17
2ND & 13
OPP 14
+6
21.9%
Michael Gordon run for 6 yds to the GeoSt 8Similar
Q1 8:17
3RD & 7
OPP 8
-2
22.0%
Fredi Knighten sacked by Joseph Peterson for a loss of 2 yards to the GeoSt 10Similar
Q1 5:56
4TH & 9
OPP 10
+26
22.4%
Luke Ferguson 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0023% → 22%
Q1 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
22.7%
Dontavis Crocker run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 26Similar
Q1 5:56
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
22.7%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Lynquez BlairSimilar
Q1 5:56
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
22.5%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Joel RuizSimilar
Q1 5:56
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
22.3%
Wil Lutz punt for 43 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ArkSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 6TD
5 plays · 69 yds · 1:4778% → 82%
Q1 5:07
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+7
22.5%
Johnston White run for 7 yds to the ArkSt 38Similar
Q1 5:07
2ND & 3
OWN 38
+4
22.2%
Fredi Knighten run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:07
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
22.2%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to J.D. McKissic for 2 yds to the ArkSt 44Similar
Q1 5:07
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+6
22.2%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Booker Mays for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 3:20
3RD & 2
50
+50
18.2%
Michael Gordon run for 50 yds for a TD, (Tres Houston KICK), (Luke Ferguson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · -8 yds · 0:0018% → 18%
Q1 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
18.4%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete, broken up by Dexter BlackmonSimilar
Q1 3:20
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
18.3%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Lynquez BlairSimilar
Q1 3:20
3RD & 10
OWN 20
-8
18.2%
Nick Arbuckle sacked by Rocky Hayes for a loss of 8 yards to the GeoSt 12Similar
Q1 3:20
4TH & 18
OWN 12
+56
18.3%
Wil Lutz punt for 41 yds ARKANSAS ST Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the ArkSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 8TD
7 plays · 68 yds · 3:2082% → 87%
Q1 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
18.4%
J.D. McKissic run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 36Similar
Q1 3:20
2ND & 6
OWN 36
-5
18.3%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the ArkSt 31Similar
Q1 3:20
2ND & 11
OWN 31
+16
18.4%
Fredi Knighten run for 16 yds to the ArkSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+48
18.0%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Dijon Paschal for 48 yds to the GeoSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
18.0%
Michael Gordon run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 3Similar
Q1 3:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
18.0%
Michael Gordon run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 2Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
13.2%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Kenneth Rains for 2 yds for a TD, (Luke Ferguson KICK), (Luke Ferguson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 21 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
14.7%
Avery Sweeting run for 16 yds to the GeoSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
15.3%
Dontavis Crocker run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 45Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+1
15.3%
Dontavis Crocker run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 46Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 46
0
15.3%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Robert DavisSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 5
OWN 46
0
15.3%
Wil Lutz punt for 54 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:2387% → 88%
Q2 13:23
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
12.7%
Michael Gordon run for 6 yds to the ArkSt 26Similar
Q2 13:23
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+2
12.6%
Michael Gordon run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 28Similar
Q2 13:23
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+1
13.0%
Johnston White run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 29Similar
Q2 12:00
4TH & 1
OWN 29
0
12.4%
Luke Ferguson punt for 53 yds, fair catch by Donovan Harden at the GeoSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q2 11:51
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+12
13.2%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Lynquez Blair for 12 yds to the GeoSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:51
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
13.3%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Robert DavisSimilar
Q2 11:51
2ND & 10
OWN 30
0
13.2%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Donovan Harden, broken up by Chris OdomSimilar
Q2 11:51
3RD & 10
OWN 30
-7
13.1%
Nick Arbuckle sacked by Ja'Von Rolland-Jones for a loss of 7 yards to the GeoSt 23 Nick Arbuckle fumbled, recovered by GeoSt Steve Wolgamott , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 11:51
4TH & 17
OWN 23
0
13.0%
Matt Hubbard punt for 42 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 12PUNT
8 plays · 13 yds · 1:5689% → 84%
Q2 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
11.3%
Michael Gordon run for 8 yds to the ArkSt 43Similar
Q2 10:20
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+3
11.1%
Fredi Knighten run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
11.0%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to J.D. McKissic for no gain to the ArkSt 46Similar
Q2 10:20
2ND & 10
OWN 46
0
11.0%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to Tres Houston, broken up by Bruce DukesSimilar
Q2 10:20
3RD & 10
OWN 46
+2
11.2%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Michael Gordon for 2 yds to the ArkSt 48Similar
Q2 8:24
4TH & 8
OWN 48
0
16.2%
Luke Ferguson punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Donovan Harden at the GeoSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 21 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
Q2 8:17
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+9
15.2%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Joel Ruiz for 9 yds to the GeoSt 21Similar
Q2 8:17
2ND & 1
OWN 21
+3
15.3%
Dontavis Crocker run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:17
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
15.3%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Lynquez Blair for 5 yds to the GeoSt 29Similar
Q2 8:17
2ND & 5
OWN 29
+4
15.6%
Dontavis Crocker run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 33Similar
Q2 8:17
3RD & 1
OWN 33
0
15.6%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Joel RuizSimilar
Q2 8:17
4TH & 1
OWN 33
0
15.3%
Wil Lutz punt for 33 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 14FUMBLE
1 play · -6 yds · 0:0085% → 85%
Q2 6:34
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-6
15.5%
Fredi Knighten run for a loss of 6 yards to the ArkSt 28 Fredi Knighten fumbled, recovered by GeoSt Trey PayneSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 15FG
10 plays · 18 yds · 4:0516% → 15%
Q2 6:27
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
15.6%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Donovan HardenSimilar
Q2 6:27
2ND & 10
OPP 28
0
15.3%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Robert DavisSimilar
Q2 6:27
3RD & 10
OPP 28
+10
14.8%
Nick Arbuckle run for 10 yds to the ArkSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:27
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+6
15.5%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Nathaniel Minor for 6 yds to the ArkSt 12Similar
Q2 6:27
2ND & 4
OPP 12
+5
15.5%
Nick Arbuckle run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
15.5%
Dontavis Crocker run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 3Similar
Q2 6:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-3
15.5%
Dontavis Crocker run for a loss of 3 yards to the ArkSt 6Similar
Q2 2:47
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
-4
14.3%
Nick Arbuckle sacked by Ja'Von Rolland-Jones for a loss of 4 yards to the ArkSt 10Similar
Q2 2:22
4TH & GOAL
OPP 10
+26
14.5%
Wil Lutz 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 16TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:4787% → 95%
Q2 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
13.1%
Michael Gordon run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 29Similar
Q2 2:22
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+6
13.0%
Michael Gordon run for 6 yds to the ArkSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-7
12.8%
Fredi Knighten sacked by Dartez Jacobs for a loss of 7 yards to the ArkSt 28Similar
Q2 2:22
2ND & 17
OWN 28
+6
13.2%
Fredi Knighten run for 6 yds to the ArkSt 34Similar
Q2 2:22
3RD & 11
OWN 34
+53
13.0%
Michael Gordon run for 53 yds to the GeoSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:35
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
5.5%
Johnston White run for 13 yds for a TD, (Luke Ferguson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 17END OF HALF
7 plays · 11 yds · 0:185% → 3%
Q2 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
5.0%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Robert Davis for 4 yds to the GeoSt 35Similar
Q2 0:22
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+9
2.8%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Joel Ruiz for 9 yds to the GeoSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:17
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
3.0%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Dontavis CrockerSimilar
Q2 0:17
2ND & 10
OWN 44
-2
2.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the GeoSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 18TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:2094% → 98%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
6.1%
Michael Gordon run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 28Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+8
6.2%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to J.D. McKissic for 8 yds to the ArkSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
6.0%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete, broken up by Jalen LawrenceSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 36
-1
6.1%
Brandon Byner run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 35Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 35
+14
6.4%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to J.D. McKissic for 14 yds to the ArkSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+51
2.3%
Fredi Knighten run for 51 yds for a TD, (Luke Ferguson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 19DOWNS
13 plays · 81 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q3 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
2.3%
Dontavis Crocker run for no gain to the GeoSt 12Similar
Q3 12:40
2ND & 10
OWN 12
+19
2.2%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Robert Davis for 19 yds to the GeoSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
2.3%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Robert Davis for 6 yds to the GeoSt 37Similar
Q3 12:40
2ND & 4
OWN 37
+6
2.3%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Joel Ruiz for 6 yds to the GeoSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
2.4%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Joel Ruiz for 4 yds to the GeoSt 47Similar
Q3 12:40
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+10
2.5%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Donovan Harden for 10 yds to the ArkSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:40
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-5
2.5%
GEORGIA ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the ArkSt 48Similar
Q3 12:40
1ST & 15
OPP 48
+34
2.5%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Donovan Harden for 34 yds to the ArkSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:40
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
2.6%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Donovan HardenSimilar
Q3 12:40
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+5
2.6%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Joel Ruiz for 5 yds to the ArkSt 9Similar
Q3 12:40
3RD & 5
OPP 9
0
2.5%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Lynquez Blair, broken up by Qushaun LeeSimilar
Q3 12:40
4TH & 5
OPP 9
+2
2.4%
Nick Arbuckle run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 20TD
12 plays · 93 yds · 4:0698% → 99%
Q3 8:49
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+2
1.8%
Fredi Knighten run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 9Similar
Q3 8:49
2ND & 8
OWN 9
+9
1.7%
Brandon Cox run for 9 yds to the ArkSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:49
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
1.6%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to Dijon PaschalSimilar
Q3 8:49
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+3
1.6%
Johnston White run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 21Similar
Q3 8:49
3RD & 7
OWN 21
+9
1.6%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Brandon Cox for 9 yds to the ArkSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:49
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+8
1.6%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Tres Houston for 8 yds to the ArkSt 38Similar
Q3 8:49
2ND & 2
OWN 38
+6
1.5%
Michael Gordon run for 6 yds to the ArkSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:49
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+16
1.5%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to J.D. McKissic for 16 yds to the GeoSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:49
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
1.5%
Fredi Knighten pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:49
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+11
1.5%
Johnston White run for 11 yds to the GeoSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:49
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+18
1.5%
Michael Gordon run for 18 yds to the GeoSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:43
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
0.9%
Michael Gordon run for 11 yds for a TD, (Luke Ferguson KICK) ARKANSAS ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting ( Yards) to the ArkSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 21DOWNS
9 plays · 35 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 4:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
0.7%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (15 Yards) to the GeoSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:43
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-6
0.7%
Nick Arbuckle sacked by Austin Copeland for a loss of 6 yards to the GeoSt 34Similar
Q3 4:43
2ND & 16
OWN 34
+5
0.6%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Donovan Harden for 5 yds to the GeoSt 39Similar
Q3 4:43
3RD & 11
OWN 39
+19
0.6%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Lynquez Blair for 19 yds to the ArkSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:43
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
0.7%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Lynquez BlairSimilar
Q3 4:43
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+2
0.7%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Lynquez Blair for 2 yds to the ArkSt 40Similar
Q3 4:43
3RD & 8
OPP 40
0
0.7%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Robert DavisSimilar
Q3 4:43
4TH & 8
OPP 40
0
0.7%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Robert Davis, broken up by Chris StoneSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 22FUMBLE
8 plays · 32 yds · 2:0499% → 100%
Q3 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
0.7%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to Brandon BynerSimilar
Q3 2:04
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+7
0.7%
J.D. McKissic run for 7 yds to the ArkSt 47Similar
Q3 2:04
3RD & 3
OWN 47
+12
0.7%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Tres Houston for 12 yds to the GeoSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:04
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+6
0.7%
Fredi Knighten run for 6 yds to the GeoSt 35Similar
Q3 2:04
2ND & 4
OPP 35
+3
0.7%
Terrance Hollingsworth run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 32Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 32
+3
0.6%
Terrance Hollingsworth run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+5
0.5%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Kenneth Rains for 5 yds to the GeoSt 24Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 24
-4
0.5%
Brandon Byner run for a loss of 4 yards to the GeoSt 28 Brandon Byner fumbled, forced by Tanner Strickland, recovered by GeoSt James TraylorSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 23INT
3 plays · 1 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
0.3%
Ben McLane pass complete to Glenn Smith for 5 yds to the GeoSt 33Similar
Q4 13:40
2ND & 5
OWN 33
-4
0.3%
Gerald Howse run for a loss of 4 yards to the GeoSt 29Similar
Q4 13:40
3RD & 9
OWN 29
0
0.3%
Ben McLane pass intercepted Andrew Tryon return for no gain to the GeoSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 24TD
7 plays · 34 yds · 2:40100% → 100%
Q4 12:35
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+11
0.4%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Booker Mays for 11 yds to the GeoSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:35
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
0.4%
Daryl Rollins-Davis run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 20Similar
Q4 12:35
2ND & 7
OPP 20
+8
0.4%
Terrance Hollingsworth run for 8 yds to the GeoSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:35
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
0.4%
Terrance Hollingsworth run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 10Similar
Q4 12:35
2ND & 8
OPP 10
+9
0.4%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Booker Mays for 9 yds to the GeoSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
0.4%
Terrance Hollingsworth run for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSt 2Similar
Q4 9:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
0.3%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Warren Leapheart for 2 yds for a TD, (Luke Ferguson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 25TD
14 plays · 67 yds · 6:060% → 0%
Q4 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
0.2%
Gerald Howse run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 36Similar
Q4 9:55
2ND & 7
OWN 36
+6
0.2%
Gerald Howse run for 6 yds to the GeoSt 42Similar
Q4 9:55
3RD & 1
OWN 42
+2
0.2%
Gerald Howse run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+7
0.2%
Gerald Howse run for 7 yds to the ArkSt 49Similar
Q4 9:55
2ND & 3
OPP 49
+1
0.2%
Gerald Howse run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 48Similar
Q4 9:55
3RD & 2
OPP 48
+3
0.2%
Ben McLane run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:55
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+7
0.2%
Gerald Howse run for 7 yds to the ArkSt 38Similar
Q4 9:55
2ND & 3
OPP 38
+2
0.2%
Gerald Howse run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 36Similar
Q4 9:55
3RD & 1
OPP 36
+4
0.2%
Gerald Howse run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:55
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+31
0.2%
Ben McLane pass complete to Joel Brooks for 31 yds to the ArkSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
0.2%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, illegal procedure ( Yards) to the ArkSt 1Similar
Q4 9:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
0.2%
Gerald Howse run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 2Similar
Q4 3:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
0.1%
Gerald Howse run for 2 yds for a TD, (Wil Lutz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 26END OF GAME
11 plays · 49 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 3:49
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
0.2%
Stephen Hogan pass incomplete to Tres HoustonSimilar
Q4 3:49
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+6
0.2%
DeKeathan Williams run for 6 yds to the ArkSt 36Similar
Q4 3:49
3RD & 4
OWN 36
+8
0.2%
Stephen Hogan pass complete to Booker Mays for 8 yds to the ArkSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:49
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
0.2%
Daryl Rollins-Davis run for no gain to the ArkSt 44Similar
Q4 3:49
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+13
0.2%
Brandon Byner run for 13 yds to the GeoSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:49
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+11
0.2%
Stephen Hogan pass complete to Brandon Cox for 11 yds to the GeoSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:49
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
0.2%
Stephen Hogan pass incomplete to Brandon CoxSimilar
Q4 3:49
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+15
0.2%
Brandon Byner run for 15 yds to the GeoSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:49
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-2
0.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the GeoSt 19Similar
Q4 3:49
2ND & 12
OPP 19
-2
0.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the GeoSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:35
Johnston White run for 13 yds for a TD, (Luke Ferguson KICK)
-7.5
TD · Q1 0:00
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Kenneth Rains for 2 yds for a TD, (Luke Ferguson KICK), (Luke Ferguson KICK)
-4.7
TD · Q3 12:40
Fredi Knighten run for 51 yds for a TD, (Luke Ferguson KICK)
-4.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com