2024 · Week 1 · Aug 31, 2024 · Bobby Dodd Stadium
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Win probability · GT
modelGT aheadGAST aheadconfidence bandkey playGT scoreGAST score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 1:09 · James Allen punt for 42 yds , Rodney Shelley returns for 7 yds to the GT 33
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- FG · Q2 3:49: Liam Rickman 21 yd FG GOOD — GAST win probability +3.7 pts (now 15%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
- TD · Q2 0:04: Haynes King run for 2 yds for a TD (Aidan Birr KICK) — GT win probability +2.0 pts (now 88%) (top driver: GT has the ball).
- TD · Q3 13:01: Eric Singleton Jr. run for 35 yds for a TD (Aidan Birr KICK) — GT win probability +4.4 pts (now 96%) (top driver: GT has the ball).
- TD · Q3 11:19: Haynes King pass complete to Malik Rutherford for 52 yds for a TD (Aidan Birr KICK) — GT win probability +4.2 pts (now 99%) (top driver: GT has the ball).
- TD · Q3 3:42: Christian Veilleux pass complete to Dorian Fleming for 24 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — GAST win probability +5.1 pts (now 8%) (top driver: GAST has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
GT made the numbers' call on 4 of 5GAST made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
- Q1 9:59GAST 4th & 1 at GT 1, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call11.0%59% to convertField goal10.8%−0.294% to makePunt10.3%−0.7average punt
- Q1 6:20GT 4th & 1 at GT 35, tiedClose callPunted · 87.8% before the snapGo for it87.9%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call87.8%−0.1average punt
- Q1 3:01GT 4th & 1 at GAST 1, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 87.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call86.9%59% to convertField goal86.5%−0.494% to makePunt85.6%−1.3average punt
- Q1 1:09GAST 4th & 3 at GAST 32, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.5% before the snapGo for it11.6%−0.152% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call11.7%average punt
- Q2 12:13GT 4th & 18 at GAST 42, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.3% before the snapGo for it87.0%−0.413% to convertField goal87.3%−0.230% to makePuntTheir call87.5%average punt
- Q2 7:42GAST 4th & 2 at GT 27, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call13.7%57% to convertField goal13.2%−0.562% to makePunt11.0%−2.7average punt
- Q2 3:49GAST 4th & 2 at GT 2, down 7Close callKicked a field goal · 14.6% before the snapGo for it14.5%48% to convertField goalTheir call13.6%−0.994% to makePunt9.9%−4.6average punt
- Q2 0:04GT 4th & 2 at GAST 2, up 4Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 82.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call83.3%48% to convertField goal82.0%−1.394% to makePunt78.5%−4.8average punt
- Q3 11:27GAST 4th & 2 at GAST 26, down 18Close callPunted · 6.1% before the snapGo for it6.6%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call6.3%−0.3average punt
- Q3 9:52GAST 4th & 10 at GT 30, down 25Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 1.8% before the snapGo for it1.5%−0.229% to convertField goalTheir call1.7%56% to makePunt1.4%−0.3average punt
- Q4 12:47GAST 4th & 18 at GAST 33, down 23Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.0% before the snapGo for it0.9%−0.212% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.1%average punt
- Q4 10:50GT 4th & 11 at GT 29, up 23Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.9% before the snapGo for it98.8%−0.125% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call98.9%average punt
- Q4 10:00GAST 4th & 6 at GT 18, down 23Close callWent for it · 1.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.9%−<0.138% to convertField goal1.0%79% to makePunt0.6%−0.4average punt
- Q4 5:34GAST 4th & 7 at GT 7, down 23Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.0%28% to convertField goal0.7%−0.391% to makePunt0.5%−0.5average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
GT made the numbers' call on 5 of 5GAST made the numbers' call on 0 of 1
- Q1 3:01GT Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call88.4%97% to makeGo for two88.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:04GT Touchdown, up 10 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call88.3%97% to makeGo for two88.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 13:01GT Touchdown, up 17 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call94.3%97% to makeGo for two94.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 11:19GT Touchdown, up 24 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.7%97% to makeGo for two97.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 3:42GAST Touchdown, down 16 before the tryClose callWent for two · failedKick5.5%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call5.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 14:14GT Touchdown, up 22 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.3%97% to makeGo for two99.3%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartGASTDrive 1DOWNS10 plays · 64 yds · 4:527% → 8%
Q1 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+7
93.5%
Christian Veilleux pass complete to Tailique Williams for 7 yds to the GT 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 2PUNT8 plays · 34 yds · 3:3992% → 91%
Q1 9:59
3RD & 9
OWN 2
+12
92.2%
Haynes King pass complete to Eric Singleton Jr. for 12 yds to the GT 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:56
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+12
92.0%
Haynes King pass complete to Chase Lane for 12 yds to the GT 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:20
4TH & 1
OWN 35
0
91.1%
David Shanahan punt for 45 yds , Tailique Williams returns for no gain to the GAST 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 3FUMBLE2 plays · 0 yds · 0:459% → 9%
GTDrive 4TD7 plays · 20 yds · 2:3491% → 92%
Q1 5:35
2ND & 6
OPP 16
+10
91.4%
Haynes King pass complete to Eric Singleton Jr. for 10 yds to the GAST 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-10
91.2%
(04:45) QB Keeper KING, Haynes rush to the right for a gain of 6 yards to the GSU0, TOUCHDOWN GT, score nullified by penalty, clock 04:29 (Play was confirmed after review). PENALTY GT Holding on GOEDE, Ryland enforced 10 yards from the GSU6 to the GSU16 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 4:29
2ND & GOAL
OPP 16
+5
91.0%
Haynes King pass complete to Malik Rutherford for 5 yds to the GAST 11Similar
Q1 4:29
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
+10
91.0%
Haynes King pass complete to Jackson Hawes for 10 yds to the GAST 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 5PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 1:528% → 9%
GTDrive 6PUNT7 plays · 25 yds · 3:5691% → 90%
Q1 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
91.3%
Haynes King pass complete to Malik Rutherford for 2 yds to the GT 35Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+11
91.0%
Haynes King pass complete to Chase Lane for 11 yds to the GT 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+20
91.5%
Haynes King pass complete to Malik Rutherford for 20 yds to the GAST 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 12
OPP 36
-6
91.1%
Haynes King pass complete to Jamal Haynes for a loss of 6 yards to the GAST 42Similar
Q2 12:13
4TH & 18
OPP 42
0
90.1%
David Shanahan punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Jyron Gilmore at the GAST 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 7FG17 plays · 87 yds · 8:2410% → 15%
Q2 12:13
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+12
90.3%
Christian Veilleux pass complete to Tailique Williams for 12 yds to the GAST 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
89.7%
Christian Veilleux pass complete to Tailique Williams for 5 yds to the GAST 39Similar
Q2 10:52
2ND & 5
OWN 39
+13
89.3%
Christian Veilleux pass complete to Dorian Fleming for 13 yds to the GT 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:52
1ST & 15
OWN 47
+13
89.7%
Christian Veilleux pass complete to Ja'Cyais Credle for 13 yds to the GT 40Similar
Q2 10:52
2ND & 2
OPP 40
-1
89.1%
Christian Veilleux pass complete to Tailique Williams for a loss of 1 yard to the GT 41Similar
Q2 7:42
3RD & 16
OPP 41
+14
89.5%
Christian Veilleux pass complete to Ted Hurst for 14 yds to the GT 27Similar
Q2 7:42
4TH & 2
OPP 27
+24
88.9%
Christian Veilleux pass complete to Tailique Williams for 24 yds to the GT 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 8TD15 plays · 75 yds · 3:4587% → 88%
Q2 2:00
2ND & 3
OWN 47
-10
87.3%
Georgia Tech Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jackson Hawes) to the GT 40Similar
Q2 1:43
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+50
86.5%
Haynes King run for 60 yds for a 1ST down Georgia Tech Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the GAST 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:09
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
86.1%
Haynes King pass complete to Malik Rutherford for 3 yds to the GAST 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 9END OF HALF1 play · -1 yds · 0:009% → 9%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 10TD6 plays · 65 yds · 1:5991% → 96%
GASTDrive 11PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 1:286% → 6%
GTDrive 12TD1 play · 52 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q3 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+52
98.7%
Haynes King pass complete to Malik Rutherford for 52 yds for a TD (Aidan Birr KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 13FG7 plays · 45 yds · 1:273% → 3%
Q3 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
97.1%
Christian Veilleux pass complete to Petey Tucker for 7 yds to the GAST 32Similar
Q3 11:19
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+15
96.7%
VEILLEUX, Christian pass deep to the right incomplete intended for HURST, Ted thrown to the GT10. PENALTY GT Roughing the Passer on HEIGHT, Romello enforced 15 yards from the GT45 to the GT30 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 14INT6 plays · 32 yds · 2:0298% → 98%
Q3 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
97.9%
Georgia State Penalty, Personal Foul (Justin Abraham) to the GT 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:52
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+9
98.1%
Haynes King pass complete to Bailey Stockton for 9 yds to the GAST 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:50
2ND & 6
OPP 43
0
98.3%
Haynes King pass intercepted Kenyatta Watson II return for no gain to the GAST 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 15TD10 plays · 68 yds · 4:083% → 8%
Q3 7:50
3RD & 10
OWN 32
+15
97.5%
Christian Veilleux pass complete to Freddie Brock for 15 yds to the GAST 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:12
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
97.3%
VEILLEUX, Christian pass up the middle intercepted by DUNCAN, Bayler at the GT45. Duncan return for 0 yards to the GT45, End of Play, clock 07:12. PENALTY Before the snap, GT Illegal Substitution enforced 5 yards from the GSU47 to the GT48. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 5:25
2ND & 1
OPP 32
+8
97.4%
Christian Veilleux pass complete to Petey Tucker for 8 yds to the GT 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:42
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+24
92.2%
Christian Veilleux pass complete to Dorian Fleming for 24 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 16TD10 plays · 75 yds · 4:2896% → 99%
Q3 3:42
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+9
96.0%
Haynes King pass complete to Eric Singleton Jr. for 9 yds to the GT 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:42
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-10
96.3%
HAYNES, Jamal rush to the right for a gain of 1 yard to the GT37 (SWINT, Kevin). PENALTY GT Holding on DOZIER, Caleb enforced 10 yards from the GT36 to the GT26 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 3:42
2ND & 14
OWN 32
+12
96.0%
Haynes King pass complete to Eric Singleton Jr. for 12 yds to the GT 44Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 9
OPP 49
+31
97.6%
Haynes King pass complete to Malik Rutherford for 31 yds to the GAST 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:14
2ND & 14
OPP 22
+22
99.4%
Haynes King pass complete to Avery Boyd for 22 yds for a TD (Aidan Birr KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 17PUNT7 plays · 8 yds · 1:271% → 1%
Q4 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
98.8%
Christian Veilleux pass complete to DJ Riles for 7 yds to the GAST 48Similar
Q4 14:14
3RD & 3
OWN 48
-15
98.8%
VEILLEUX, Christian pass short to the left complete for 5 yards to PRINGLE, Gavin caught at the GSU50 and advanced to the GT47 (HARVEY, Ahmari). PENALTY GSU Personal Foul on CHUKWUMA, Ben enforced 15 yards from the GSU48 to the GSU33 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 18PUNT7 plays · 17 yds · 1:57100% → 100%
Q4 12:47
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+2
99.5%
Haynes King pass complete to Christian Leary for 2 yds to the GT 14Similar
Q4 11:57
2ND & 8
OWN 14
+16
99.7%
Haynes King pass complete to Ryland Goede for 16 yds to the GT 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:50
4TH & 11
OWN 29
0
99.6%
David Shanahan punt for 47 yds, fair catch by DJ Riles at the GAST 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 19DOWNS13 plays · 69 yds · 5:161% → 1%
Q4 10:50
2ND & 4
OWN 30
+8
99.0%
Christian Veilleux pass complete to Michel Dukes for 8 yds to the GAST 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+12
99.0%
Christian Veilleux pass complete to Ted Hurst for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:00
1ST & 10
50
+28
99.0%
Christian Veilleux pass complete to Dorian Fleming for 28 yds to the GT 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:19
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
99.3%
Christian Veilleux pass complete to Michel Dukes for 2 yds to the GT 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 3:42
Christian Veilleux pass complete to Dorian Fleming for 24 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
-5.1
TD · Q3 13:01
Eric Singleton Jr. run for 35 yds for a TD (Aidan Birr KICK)
+4.4
TD · Q3 11:19
Haynes King pass complete to Malik Rutherford for 52 yds for a TD (Aidan Birr KICK)
+4.2