Try the model
GAST

Georgia State 20 at Marshall 35

MRSH
2024 · Week 8 · Oct 17, 2024 · Joan C. Edwards Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · MRSH
modelMRSH aheadGAST aheadconfidence bandkey playMRSH scoreGAST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDFGTDTDTDFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:09 · (00:09) Kneel down by TEAM at GSU17 (team loss of 2), clock 00:05.
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialGarbage-time factorTime remaining
+32.0+16.00−16.0−32.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 3:47: Zach Gibson pass complete to Michel Dukes for 13 yds for a TD (Liam Rickman KICK) — GAST win probability +6.5 pts (now 23%) (top driver: GAST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:28: Braylon Braxton pass complete to A.J. Turner for 30 yds for a TD (Rece Verhoff KICK) — MRSH win probability +5.5 pts (now 91%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 5:51: Zach Gibson pass complete to Michel Dukes for 3 yds for a TD (Liam Rickman KICK) — GAST win probability +9.5 pts (now 24%) (top driver: GAST has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 14:51: Liam Rickman 20 yd FG GOOD — GAST win probability +13.7 pts (now 35%) (top driver: GAST has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 9:36: Rece Verhoff 49 yd FG GOOD — MRSH win probability +31.7 pts (now 91%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MRSH made the numbers' call on 3 of 6GAST made the numbers' call on 4 of 8
  1. Q1 9:11GAST 4th & 4 at GAST 48, down 8
    Close callPunted · 25.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.3%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 3:10MRSH 4th & 3 at GAST 28, up 8
    Close callKicked a field goal · 75.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    75.2%−0.3
    60% to make
    Punt
    73.3%−2.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:17GAST 4th & 7 at GAST 28, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.4%−0.2
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.6%
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:15GAST 4th & 4 at MRSH 18, down 18
    Close callKicked a field goal · 16.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.7%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    16.5%−0.2
    79% to make
    Punt
    11.1%−5.6
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:21MRSH 4th & 5 at MRSH 28, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.2%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.3%
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:42MRSH 4th & 1 at GAST 27, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 79.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    79.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    79.0%−0.8
    62% to make
    Punt
    74.9%−4.9
    average punt
  7. Q3 12:19GAST 4th & 1 at MRSH 10, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    13.6%−1.4
    88% to make
    Punt
    9.3%−5.8
    average punt
  8. Q3 10:18MRSH 4th & 9 at MRSH 11, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.1%−1.3
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.3%
    average punt
  9. Q4 14:51GAST 4th & 2 at MRSH 2, down 8
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.0 ptsKicked a field goal · 17.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    14.8%−3.0
    94% to make
    Punt
    1.4%−16.4
    average punt
  10. Q4 13:10MRSH 4th & 1 at MRSH 34, up 5
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.5 ptsPunted · 73.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.1%−2.5
    average punt
  11. Q4 12:15GAST 4th & 9 at GAST 14, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.4%−2.3
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.7%
    average punt
  12. Q4 9:36MRSH 4th & 4 at GAST 31, up 5
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.8 ptsKicked a field goal · 78.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    77.3%−1.8
    54% to make
    Punt
    75.0%−4.0
    average punt
  13. Q4 1:56GAST 4th & 10 at MRSH 12, down 8
    Close callWent for it · 9.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.9%−0.9
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    7.8%
    86% to make
    Punt
    3.2%−4.6
    average punt
  14. Q4 1:00GAST 4th & 9 at GAST 26, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.9%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.7%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MRSH made the numbers' call on 3 of 4GAST made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 12:10MRSH Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    74.1%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    74.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:48MRSH Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 3:47GAST Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    22.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    22.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:28MRSH Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 5:51GAST Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    18.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 1:39MRSH Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.7%−0.6
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MRSHDrive 1TD
7 plays · 61 yds · 2:4274% → 75%
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
74.2%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Christian Fitzpatrick for 8 yds to the MRSH 47Similar
Q1 14:29
2ND & 2
OWN 47
+2
74.1%
Braylon Braxton run for 2 yds to the MRSH 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:03
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+15
74.1%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Toby Payne for 15 yds to the GAST 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:39
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+11
74.1%
A.J. Turner run for 11 yds to the GAST 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:05
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+7
74.1%
Georgia State Penalty, Face mask (7 yards) (Kenyatta Watson II) to the GAST 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+7
74.0%
A.J. Turner run for 7 yds to the GAST 2Similar
Q1 12:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
74.8%
A.J. Turner run for 2 yds for a TD (T. Payne Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 23 yds · 2:5926% → 25%
Q1 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
74.4%
Freddie Brock run for 8 yds to the GAST 33Similar
Q1 11:33
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+9
74.3%
Christian Veilleux pass complete to Petey Tucker for 9 yds to the GAST 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:01
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-10
74.4%
Georgia State Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the GAST 39Similar
Q1 10:11
1ST & 13
OWN 39
+7
74.5%
Freddie Brock run for 7 yds to the GAST 46Similar
Q1 9:59
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+5
74.3%
Freddie Brock run for 5 yds to the MRSH 49Similar
Q1 9:41
3RD & 1
OPP 49
-3
74.3%
Freddie Brock run for a loss of 3 yards to the GAST 48Similar
Q1 9:11
4TH & 4
OWN 48
0
74.8%
James Allen punt for 49 yds, downed at the MRSH 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 3FG
12 plays · 69 yds · 5:4374% → 76%
Q1 8:53
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+5
74.4%
A.J. Turner run for 5 yds to the MRSH 8Similar
Q1 8:14
2ND & 5
OWN 8
+6
74.6%
A.J. Turner run for 6 yds to the MRSH 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:41
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
74.8%
Braylon Braxton pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:38
2ND & 10
OWN 14
+5
74.7%
Braylon Braxton run for 5 yds to the MRSH 19Similar
Q1 6:51
3RD & 5
OWN 19
+15
75.0%
Georgia State Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (KD McDaniel) to the GAST 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:19
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
76.0%
Jordan Houston run for 3 yds to the GAST 46Similar
Q1 5:49
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+11
76.1%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Toby Payne for 11 yds to the GAST 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:26
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
76.3%
Braylon Braxton run for no gain to the GAST 35Similar
Q1 4:35
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+3
76.2%
Chuck Montgomery run for 3 yds to the GAST 32Similar
Q1 4:05
3RD & 7
OPP 32
+4
75.9%
Braylon Braxton run for 4 yds to the GAST 28Similar
Q1 3:10
4TH & 3
OPP 28
+47
75.9%
Rece Verhoff 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:5124% → 24%
Q1 3:08
1ST & 15
OWN 20
0
76.0%
Christian Veilleux pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
76.0%
Georgia State Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the GAST 20Similar
Q1 2:58
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+8
76.2%
Christian Veilleux pass complete to Michel Dukes for 8 yds to the GAST 28Similar
Q1 2:47
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
76.2%
Christian Veilleux pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:17
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+6
76.5%
James Allen punt for 42 yds , Chuck Montgomery returns for 6 yds to the MRSH 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 5TD
6 plays · 64 yds · 2:2080% → 86%
Q1 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+22
80.0%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Toby Payne for 22 yds to the GAST 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:59
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+9
80.4%
Braylon Braxton run for 9 yds to the GAST 33Similar
Q1 1:19
2ND & 1
OPP 33
+1
80.8%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Bralon Brown for 1 yd to the GAST 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:36
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
80.7%
Braylon Braxton pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:22
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+9
81.0%
Braylon Braxton run for 9 yds to the GAST 23Similar
Q2 14:48
3RD & 1
OPP 23
+23
86.3%
A.J. Turner run for 23 yds for a TD (Rece Verhoff KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 6FG
9 plays · 57 yds · 3:3117% → 21%
Q2 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
82.6%
Freddie Brock run for 1 yd to the GAST 26Similar
Q2 14:06
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+3
82.8%
Zach Gibson run for 3 yds to the GAST 29Similar
Q2 13:45
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+27
82.8%
Zach Gibson pass complete to DJ Riles for 27 yds to the MRSH 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:05
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
81.9%
Michel Dukes run for 5 yds to the MRSH 39Similar
Q2 12:45
2ND & 5
OPP 39
+15
81.9%
Zach Gibson pass complete to Ted Hurst for 15 yds to the MRSH 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:59
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+6
81.9%
Michel Dukes run for 6 yds to the MRSH 18Similar
Q2 11:21
2ND & 4
OPP 18
0
82.3%
Zach Gibson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:21
3RD & 4
OPP 18
0
82.7%
Zach Gibson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:15
4TH & 4
OPP 18
+36
78.9%
Liam Rickman 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:4086% → 86%
Q2 11:01
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
86.3%
Ethan Payne run for 5 yds to the MRSH 28Similar
Q2 10:33
2ND & 5
OWN 28
0
86.4%
Braylon Braxton pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:26
3RD & 5
OWN 28
0
86.1%
Braylon Braxton pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:21
4TH & 5
OWN 28
0
85.8%
Alec Clark punt for 48 yds, fair catch by DJ Riles at the GAST 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 8TD
14 plays · 76 yds · 6:2718% → 23%
Q2 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+6
82.2%
Zach Gibson run for 6 yds to the GAST 30Similar
Q2 9:46
2ND & 4
OWN 30
+6
82.5%
Zach Gibson run for 6 yds to the GAST 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-2
82.4%
Zach Gibson run for a loss of 2 yards to the GAST 34Similar
Q2 8:29
2ND & 12
OWN 34
+13
82.8%
Zach Gibson pass complete to Ja'Cyais Credle for 13 yds to the GAST 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:54
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
82.0%
Michel Dukes run for 2 yds to the GAST 49Similar
Q2 7:10
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+11
82.1%
Zach Gibson pass complete to Dorian Fleming for 11 yds to the MRSH 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:25
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
82.3%
Freddie Brock run for 5 yds to the MRSH 35Similar
Q2 6:07
2ND & 5
OPP 35
-2
81.8%
Zach Gibson pass complete to Dorian Fleming for a loss of 2 yards to the MRSH 37Similar
Q2 5:30
3RD & 7
OPP 37
+11
83.0%
Zach Gibson run for 11 yds to the MRSH 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:05
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+6
83.2%
Zach Gibson pass complete to Michel Dukes for 6 yds to the MRSH 20Similar
Q2 4:30
2ND & 4
OPP 20
0
83.3%
Zach Gibson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:22
3RD & 4
OPP 20
+7
83.8%
Zach Gibson pass complete to Dorian Fleming for 7 yds to the MRSH 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:47
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
77.3%
Zach Gibson pass complete to Michel Dukes for 13 yds for a TD (Liam Rickman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 9TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 3:1983% → 91%
Q2 3:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
83.4%
A.J. Turner run for 8 yds to the MRSH 33Similar
Q2 3:17
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+7
83.9%
A.J. Turner run for 7 yds to the MRSH 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:44
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
84.7%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Chuck Montgomery for 7 yds to the MRSH 47Similar
Q2 2:18
2ND & 3
OWN 47
+5
85.4%
Jordan Houston run for 5 yds to the GAST 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+12
84.6%
Braylon Braxton run for 12 yds to the GAST 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:26
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
85.2%
Braylon Braxton pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:22
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+3
85.1%
Jordan Houston run for 3 yds to the GAST 33Similar
Q2 1:18
3RD & 7
OPP 33
+6
84.3%
Braylon Braxton run for 6 yds to the GAST 27Similar
Q2 0:42
4TH & 1
OPP 27
+2
83.6%
Ethan Payne run for 2 yds to the GAST 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:35
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
85.1%
Braylon Braxton pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:34
2ND & 10
OPP 25
-5
85.1%
Marshall Penalty, False Start (Ethan Payne) to the GAST 30Similar
Q2 0:28
2ND & 15
OPP 30
+30
90.5%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to A.J. Turner for 30 yds for a TD (Rece Verhoff KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 10END OF HALF
2 plays · 3 yds · 0:0313% → 13%
Q2 0:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
87.3%
Georgia State Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the GAST 20Similar
Q2 0:25
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+8
87.3%
Freddie Brock run for 8 yds to the GAST 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 11DOWNS
7 plays · 65 yds · 2:5214% → 12%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+56
85.7%
Freddie Brock run for 56 yds to the MRSH 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:25
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
83.3%
Zach Gibson run for no gain to the MRSH 19Similar
Q3 13:41
2ND & 10
OPP 19
-2
83.8%
Freddie Brock run for a loss of 2 yards to the MRSH 21Similar
Q3 12:58
3RD & 12
OPP 21
+6
85.2%
Zach Gibson run for 6 yds to the MRSH 15Similar
Q3 12:25
4TH & 6
OPP 15
+5
85.4%
(12:25) GIBSON, Zach pass to the left incomplete intended for RILES, DJ thrown to the MAR0, clock 12:21. PENALTY MAR Offsides on LEGGS, TyQaze enforced 5 yards from the MAR15 to the MAR10 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 12:19
4TH & 1
OPP 10
0
84.9%
Freddie Brock run for no gain to the MRSH 10Similar
Q3 12:08
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-5
88.1%
Marshall Penalty, False Start (Ethan Payne) to the MRSH 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 2:0288% → 85%
Q3 12:08
1ST & 15
OWN 5
-1
88.0%
A.J. Turner run for a loss of 1 yard to the MRSH 4Similar
Q3 11:27
2ND & 16
OWN 4
+3
88.1%
A.J. Turner run for 3 yds to the MRSH 7Similar
Q3 10:49
3RD & 13
OWN 7
+4
87.8%
A.J. Turner run for 4 yds to the MRSH 11Similar
Q3 10:18
4TH & 9
OWN 11
0
87.6%
Alec Clark punt for 44 yds, downed at the GAST 45Similar
Q3 10:06
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+10
85.2%
(10:06) GIBSON, Zach pass deep up the middle incomplete intended for LANEY, Rykem broken up by FOSTER, Ian at the MAR15, clock 09:59. PENALTY MAR Holding on FOSTER, Ian enforced 10 yards from the GSU45 to the MAR45 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 13TD
9 plays · 55 yds · 4:0616% → 24%
Q3 9:57
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
84.4%
Zach Gibson run for 5 yds to the MRSH 40Similar
Q3 9:21
2ND & 5
OPP 40
+17
84.1%
CJ Beasley run for 17 yds to the MRSH 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:47
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
83.6%
Zach Gibson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:37
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+6
84.4%
Zach Gibson pass complete to Dorian Fleming for 6 yds to the MRSH 17Similar
Q3 8:01
3RD & 4
OPP 17
+7
85.0%
Zach Gibson pass complete to Petey Tucker for 7 yds to the MRSH 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
84.2%
Freddie Brock run for 1 yd to the MRSH 9Similar
Q3 6:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+7
85.1%
(06:41) GIBSON, Zach pass up the middle incomplete intended for FLEMING, Dorian thrown to the MAR0, clock 06:40. PENALTY MAR Pass Interference on WATSON, Landyn enforced 7 yards to the MAR2 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 6:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
85.2%
Freddie Brock run for a loss of 1 yard to the MRSH 3Similar
Q3 5:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
75.7%
Zach Gibson pass complete to Michel Dukes for 3 yds for a TD (Liam Rickman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 14INT
7 plays · 33 yds · 2:1483% → 86%
Q3 5:39
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
82.5%
Braylon Braxton pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:35
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+8
82.3%
A.J. Turner run for 8 yds to the MRSH 28Similar
Q3 4:51
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+9
83.3%
Braylon Braxton run for 9 yds to the MRSH 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:24
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+11
84.6%
Jordan Houston run for 11 yds to the MRSH 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
85.7%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Toby Payne for 5 yds to the GAST 47Similar
Q3 3:25
2ND & 5
OPP 47
-7
86.1%
Braylon Braxton pass intercepted Damaine Wilson return for 7 yds to the GAST 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 15FG
8 plays · 52 yds · 3:3320% → 35%
Q3 3:24
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
80.1%
Freddie Brock run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 2:44
2ND & 6
50
+20
79.7%
Zach Gibson pass complete to Dorian Fleming for 20 yds to the MRSH 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:09
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+11
78.1%
Zach Gibson pass complete to Dorian Fleming for 11 yds to the MRSH 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:31
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+13
77.0%
Zach Gibson pass complete to Dorian Fleming for 13 yds to the MRSH 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
77.4%
Freddie Brock run for 1 yd to the MRSH 5Similar
Q3 0:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
77.5%
Freddie Brock run for 3 yds to the MRSH 2Similar
Q4 14:58
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
79.1%
Zach Gibson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:51
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+20
65.4%
Liam Rickman 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:3955% → 53%
Q4 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
55.3%
Braylon Braxton run for 3 yds to the MRSH 28Similar
Q4 14:16
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+5
55.0%
A.J. Turner run for 5 yds to the MRSH 33Similar
Q4 13:50
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+1
55.5%
A.J. Turner run for 1 yd to the MRSH 34Similar
Q4 13:10
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
53.3%
Alec Clark punt for 53 yds, downed at the GAST 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:5131% → 28%
Q4 13:06
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+1
69.5%
CJ Beasley run for 1 yd to the GAST 14Similar
Q4 12:25
2ND & 9
OWN 14
0
69.9%
Zach Gibson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:20
3RD & 9
OWN 14
0
71.3%
Zach Gibson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:15
4TH & 9
OWN 14
0
72.2%
James Allen punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Chuck Montgomery at the MRSH 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 18FG
6 plays · 22 yds · 2:3459% → 91%
Q4 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
59.1%
Braylon Braxton run for 5 yds to the GAST 48Similar
Q4 11:40
2ND & 5
OPP 48
+11
61.0%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Christian Fitzpatrick for 11 yds to the GAST 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:07
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+5
61.2%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Jordan Houston for 5 yds to the GAST 32Similar
Q4 10:28
2ND & 5
OPP 32
+1
61.4%
Braylon Braxton run for 1 yd to the GAST 31Similar
Q4 9:41
3RD & 4
OPP 31
0
59.2%
Braylon Braxton pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:36
4TH & 4
OPP 31
+49
90.9%
Rece Verhoff 49 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 19DOWNS
17 plays · 83 yds · 7:3313% → 11%
Q4 9:29
1ST & 10
OWN 5
0
86.6%
Zach Gibson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:18
2ND & 10
OWN 5
+13
87.1%
Zach Gibson pass complete to Michel Dukes for 13 yds to the GAST 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:37
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+26
86.5%
Michel Dukes run for 26 yds to the GAST 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
83.9%
Michel Dukes run for no gain to the GAST 44Similar
Q4 7:14
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+6
84.8%
Zach Gibson pass complete to Freddie Brock for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 6:27
3RD & 4
50
-5
84.4%
Georgia State Penalty, Delay Of Game (TEAM) to the GAST 45Similar
Q4 6:10
3RD & 9
OWN 45
+9
86.7%
Zach Gibson pass complete to Michel Dukes for 9 yds to the MRSH 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:21
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+8
83.8%
Freddie Brock run for 8 yds to the MRSH 38Similar
Q4 4:59
2ND & 2
OPP 38
+2
83.2%
Zach Gibson run for 2 yds to the MRSH 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:28
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+8
84.7%
Zach Gibson pass complete to Freddie Brock for 8 yds to the MRSH 28Similar
Q4 3:45
2ND & 2
OPP 28
+16
81.8%
Freddie Brock run for 16 yds to the MRSH 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:03
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
81.5%
Michel Dukes run for 2 yds to the MRSH 10Similar
Q4 2:22
2ND & 8
OPP 10
-2
81.2%
Zach Gibson sacked by J.J. Roberts for a loss of 2 yards to the MRSH 12Similar
Q4 2:00
3RD & 10
OPP 12
0
87.1%
Zach Gibson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:56
4TH & 10
OPP 12
0
88.9%
Zach Gibson pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 20TD
1 play · 88 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+88
99.5%
A.J. Turner run for 88 yds for a TD (Rece Verhoff KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 21DOWNS
6 plays · 1 yds · 0:393% → 2%
Q4 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
97.5%
Georgia State Penalty, False Start (Dorian Fleming) to the GAST 20Similar
Q4 1:39
1ST & 15
OWN 20
0
97.6%
Zach Gibson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:31
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+6
97.6%
Zach Gibson pass complete to Michel Dukes for 6 yds to the GAST 26Similar
Q4 1:04
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
97.7%
Zach Gibson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:00
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
98.2%
Zach Gibson pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 22END OF GAME
3 plays · 9 yds · 0:45100% → 100%
Q4 0:54
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+16
99.5%
Jordan Houston run for 16 yds to the GAST 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-5
99.6%
Marshall Penalty, Delay Of Game (TEAM) to the GAST 15Similar
Q4 0:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 15
-2
99.6%
(00:09) Kneel down by TEAM at GSU17 (team loss of 2), clock 00:05.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 9:36
Rece Verhoff 49 yd FG GOOD
+31.7
FG · Q4 14:51
Liam Rickman 20 yd FG GOOD
-13.7
TD · Q3 5:51
Zach Gibson pass complete to Michel Dukes for 3 yds for a TD (Liam Rickman KICK)
-9.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com