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GAST

Georgia State 24 at Auburn 34

AUB
2021 · Week 4 · Sep 25, 2021 · Jordan-Hare Stadium
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Win probability · AUB
modelAUB aheadGAST aheadconfidence bandkey playAUB scoreGAST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGFGTDFGTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 9:41 · Michael Hayes punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Ja'Varrius Johnson at the Aub 38
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+45.5+22.80−22.8−45.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 157Pregame prior+11.1Home team on offense−11.2Garbage-time factor−5.5Score differential−4.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−4.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:29: Darren Grainger pass complete to Roger Carter for 7 yds for a TD, (Noel Ruiz KICK) — GAST win probability +5.1 pts (now 19%) (top driver: GAST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:56: Tucker Gregg run for 50 yds for a TD, (Noel Ruiz KICK) — GAST win probability +9.8 pts (now 31%) (top driver: GAST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 4:44: Barton Lester 0 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Anders Carlson Kick) — AUB win probability +18.9 pts (now 65%) (top driver: GAST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 0:45: TJ Finley pass complete to Shedrick Jackson for 10 yds for a TD, (TJ Finley pass to Kobe Hudson for Two-Point Conversion) — AUB win probability +67.6 pts (now 92%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:31: Darren Grainger pass intercepted for a TD Smoke Monday return for 36 yds for a TD, (Anders Carlson KICK) — AUB win probability +14.3 pts (now 94%) (top driver: GAST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
AUB made the numbers' call on 10 of 11GAST made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
  1. Q1 13:44GAST 4th & 6 at GAST 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.0%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:14AUB 4th & 8 at AUB 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.4%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:34GAST 4th & 12 at AUB 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 6.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.0%−0.1
    21% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    6.2%
    83% to make
    Punt
    5.7%−0.4
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:34AUB 4th & 5 at GAST 23, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 93.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.4%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    93.5%
    70% to make
    Punt
    93.1%−0.4
    average punt
  5. Q1 6:46GAST 4th & 5 at GAST 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.5%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.6%
    average punt
  6. Q1 2:57AUB 4th & 7 at GAST 7, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 92.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.3%−<0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    92.3%
    91% to make
    Punt
    91.7%−0.6
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:00AUB 4th & 5 at GAST 10, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 87.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.3%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    87.4%
    88% to make
    Punt
    84.8%−2.6
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:54AUB 4th & 15 at GAST 29, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 75.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.6%−1.2
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    74.8%
    58% to make
    Punt
    71.5%−3.3
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:59AUB 4th & 6 at AUB 49, down 12
    Close callPunted · 71.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.6%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.5%−0.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 13:11AUB 4th & 5 at AUB 31, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.2%−1.3
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.5%
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:28GAST 4th & 9 at AUB 37, up 12
    Close callPunted · 50.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.9%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    50.4%−0.4
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    50.1%−0.8
    average punt
  12. Q3 6:35AUB 4th & 10 at AUB 30, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.3%−1.8
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.1%
    average punt
  13. Q3 4:44GAST 4th & 16 at GAST 19, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.7%−5.6
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.3%
    average punt
  14. Q3 3:10GAST 4th & 8 at GAST 27, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.2%−2.8
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.0%
    average punt
  15. Q4 14:50AUB 4th & 8 at GAST 23, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 57.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.5%−1.8
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    57.3%
    70% to make
    Punt
    42.2%−15.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 13:06GAST 4th & 6 at GAST 27, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.4%−1.8
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.2%
    average punt
  17. Q4 10:58AUB 4th & 5 at AUB 35, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.8%−0.4
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.1%
    average punt
  18. Q4 9:41GAST 4th & 9 at GAST 24, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.8%−4.6
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.3%
    average punt
  19. Q4 3:23GAST 4th & 13 at GAST 44, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.4%−3.4
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.8%
    average punt
  20. Q4 0:45AUB 4th & 9 at GAST 10, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 22.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    18.9%
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    16.6%−2.3
    88% to make
    Punt
    10.4%−8.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
AUB made the numbers' call on 2 of 3GAST made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q2 12:45GAST Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    10.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 7:29GAST Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    18.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:56GAST Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 4:44AUB Touchdown, down 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 0:45AUB Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Numbers favored kick by 2.6 ptsWent for two · converted
    Kick
    78.6%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    76.0%−2.6
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 0:31AUB Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
GASTDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:095% → 5%
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
95.5%
Darren Grainger run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 26Similar
Q1 14:24
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+3
95.4%
Darren Grainger run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 29Similar
Q1 13:58
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
95.3%
Darren Grainger pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:44
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
95.3%
Michael Hayes punt for 57 yds, downed at the Aub 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 2:1995% → 95%
Q1 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+1
95.3%
Tank Bigsby run for 1 yd to the Aub 15Similar
Q1 13:10
2ND & 9
OWN 15
+7
95.2%
Bo Nix pass complete to John Samuel Shenker for 7 yds to the Aub 22Similar
Q1 12:34
3RD & 2
OWN 22
+2
95.0%
Tank Bigsby run for 2 yds to the Aub 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
95.0%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Shedrick JacksonSimilar
Q1 11:53
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+2
94.9%
Tank Bigsby run for 2 yds to the Aub 26Similar
Q1 11:22
3RD & 8
OWN 26
0
94.8%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Ja'Varrius JohnsonSimilar
Q1 11:14
4TH & 8
OWN 26
0
94.7%
Oscar Chapman punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Quavian White at the GeoSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 3FG
7 plays · 58 yds · 2:215% → 6%
Q1 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
94.7%
Tucker Gregg run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 30Similar
Q1 10:44
2ND & 7
OWN 30
+57
94.6%
Tucker Gregg run for 57 yds to the Aub 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:19
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+1
94.4%
Darren Grainger run for 1 yd to the Aub 12Similar
Q1 9:55
2ND & 9
OPP 12
+4
94.3%
Jamyest Williams run for 4 yds to the Aub 8Similar
Q1 9:20
3RD & 5
OPP 8
-2
94.2%
Darren Grainger run for a loss of 2 yards to the Aub 10Similar
Q1 8:39
4TH & 7
OPP 10
-5
94.1%
GEORGIA ST Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Aub 15Similar
Q1 8:34
4TH & 12
OPP 15
+32
94.0%
Noel Ruiz 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 4FG
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:4494% → 94%
Q1 8:18
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
94.2%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to John Samuel ShenkerSimilar
Q1 8:11
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+5
94.1%
Bo Nix pass complete to Tank Bigsby for 5 yds to the GeoSt 23Similar
Q1 7:58
3RD & 5
OPP 23
0
94.0%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Shedrick JacksonSimilar
Q1 7:34
4TH & 5
OPP 23
+40
94.0%
Anders Carlson 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:366% → 6%
Q1 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
93.8%
Jamyest Williams run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 30Similar
Q1 7:04
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
93.7%
Darren Grainger pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:59
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
93.7%
Darren Grainger pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:46
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+15
93.8%
Michael Hayes punt for 42 yds , Ja'Varrius Johnson returns for 15 yds to the Aub 45 AUBURN Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Aub 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 6FG
11 plays · 65 yds · 3:1894% → 93%
Q1 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+6
93.5%
Tank Bigsby run for 6 yds to the Aub 34Similar
Q1 5:55
2ND & 4
OWN 34
+3
93.6%
Shaun Shivers run for 3 yds to the Aub 37Similar
Q1 5:34
3RD & 1
OWN 37
+26
93.4%
Shaun Shivers run for 26 yds to the GeoSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:49
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
93.4%
Bo Nix pass complete to Shaun Shivers for 3 yds to the GeoSt 34Similar
Q1 4:32
2ND & 7
OPP 34
+16
93.4%
Bo Nix pass complete to Ja'Varrius Johnson for 16 yds to the GeoSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:59
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+12
93.3%
Tank Bigsby run for 12 yds to the GeoSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:53
1ST & 0
OPP 6
-5
93.4%
AUBURN Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the GeoSt 11Similar
Q1 3:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 11
+4
93.2%
Tank Bigsby run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 7Similar
Q1 3:09
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
93.1%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Elijah CanionSimilar
Q1 3:01
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
92.9%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Ze'Vian CapersSimilar
Q1 2:57
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+23
93.0%
Anders Carlson 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 7TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 5:037% → 11%
Q1 2:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
93.0%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Jamari Thrash for 8 yds to the GeoSt 33Similar
Q1 2:34
2ND & 2
OWN 33
0
92.6%
Darren Grainger pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:22
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+3
92.7%
Marcus Carroll run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
92.5%
Marcus Carroll run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 40Similar
Q1 1:35
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+7
92.3%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Jamari Thrash for 7 yds to the GeoSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
92.0%
Marcus Carroll run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 49Similar
Q1 0:53
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+10
92.0%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Terrance Dixon for 10 yds to the Aub 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:28
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+8
91.8%
Destin Coates run for 8 yds to the Aub 33Similar
Q1 0:01
2ND & 2
OPP 33
+1
91.4%
Destin Coates run for 1 yd to the Aub 32Similar
Q2 14:49
3RD & 1
OPP 32
+2
91.5%
Tucker Gregg run for 2 yds to the Aub 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:29
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
91.3%
Darren Grainger pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:07
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+14
91.1%
Darren Grainger run for 14 yds to the Aub 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:33
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+3
90.8%
Destin Coates run for 3 yds to the Aub 13Similar
Q2 13:06
2ND & 7
OPP 13
+1
90.7%
Destin Coates run for 1 yd to the Aub 12Similar
Q2 12:45
3RD & 6
OPP 12
+12
88.9%
Jamari Thrash 12 Yd pass from Darren Grainger (Noel Ruiz Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 8FG
11 plays · 66 yds · 3:3490% → 90%
Q2 12:34
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
89.5%
Bo Nix pass complete to Jarquez Hunter for 3 yds to the Aub 27Similar
Q2 12:11
2ND & 7
OWN 27
0
89.4%
Bo Nix pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:58
3RD & 7
OWN 27
+28
88.9%
Bo Nix pass complete to Kobe Hudson for 28 yds to the GeoSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:28
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
90.1%
Bo Nix pass complete to Jarquez Hunter for 3 yds to the GeoSt 42Similar
Q2 11:11
2ND & 7
OPP 42
+27
89.9%
Jarquez Hunter run for 27 yds to the GeoSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:44
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+1
90.1%
Jarquez Hunter run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 14Similar
Q2 10:20
2ND & 9
OPP 14
+3
89.9%
Tank Bigsby run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 11Similar
Q2 9:30
3RD & 6
OPP 11
+1
89.0%
Bo Nix run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 10Similar
Q2 9:00
4TH & 5
OPP 10
+27
89.5%
Anders Carlson 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 9TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:1612% → 19%
Q2 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
88.2%
Jamyest Williams run for 18 yds to the GeoSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:29
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+15
87.4%
Grainger, Darren pass incomplete, PENALTY AUBURN pass interference 15 yards to the AUBURN42, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN GEORGIAST.Similar
Q2 8:15
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+24
87.0%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Roger Carter for 24 yds to the Aub 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:05
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
86.1%
Darren Grainger pass incomplete to Ja'Cyais CredleSimilar
Q2 7:50
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+11
85.9%
Darren Grainger run for 11 yds to the Aub 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
80.8%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Roger Carter for 7 yds for a TD, (Noel Ruiz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 10FG
14 plays · 47 yds · 4:1682% → 82%
Q2 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-1
82.0%
Bo Nix sacked by Chris Moore for a loss of 1 yard to the Aub 23Similar
Q2 6:30
2ND & 11
OWN 23
+5
81.2%
Jarquez Hunter run for 5 yds to the Aub 28Similar
Q2 5:55
3RD & 6
OWN 28
+8
80.4%
Bo Nix pass complete to Kobe Hudson for 8 yds to the Aub 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:33
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+18
80.7%
Bo Nix pass complete to Shedrick Jackson for 18 yds to the GeoSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-5
82.0%
AUBURN Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Aub 49Similar
Q2 4:55
1ST & 15
OWN 49
0
80.4%
Tank Bigsby run for no gain to the Aub 49Similar
Q2 4:30
2ND & 15
OWN 49
+11
79.7%
Tank Bigsby run for 11 yds to the GeoSt 40Similar
Q2 3:59
3RD & 4
OPP 40
+16
80.5%
Bo Nix pass complete to Kobe Hudson for 16 yds to the GeoSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-5
81.5%
Tank Bigsby run for a loss of 5 yards to the GeoSt 29Similar
Q2 3:08
2ND & 15
OPP 29
0
80.1%
Bo Nix pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:59
3RD & 15
OPP 29
0
78.8%
Bo Nix pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:54
4TH & 15
OPP 29
+45
81.8%
Anders Carlson 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 11TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 0:5819% → 31%
Q2 2:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
81.1%
AUBURN Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the GeoSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:48
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+8
79.8%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Sam Pinckney for 8 yds to the GeoSt 48Similar
Q2 2:23
2ND & 2
OWN 48
-2
79.2%
Darren Grainger run for a loss of 2 yards to the GeoSt 46Similar
Q2 2:12
3RD & 4
OWN 46
+4
79.1%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Terrance Dixon for 4 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:56
1ST & 10
50
+50
69.2%
Tucker Gregg run for 50 yds for a TD, (Noel Ruiz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 25 yds · 0:4573% → 73%
Q2 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+21
72.9%
Bo Nix pass complete to Shedrick Jackson for 21 yds to the Aub 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:29
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
73.8%
Tank Bigsby run for 4 yds to the Aub 49Similar
Q2 1:15
2ND & 6
OWN 49
0
74.1%
Bo Nix pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:08
3RD & 6
OWN 49
0
73.3%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Tank BigsbySimilar
Q2 0:59
4TH & 6
OWN 49
0
73.0%
Oscar Chapman punt for 48 yds, downed at the GeoSt 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 13END OF HALF
4 plays · 32 yds · 0:5130% → 33%
Q2 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+12
69.9%
Tucker Gregg run for 12 yds to the GeoSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+18
67.0%
Tucker Gregg run for 18 yds to the GeoSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
66.9%
Jamyest Williams run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:2668% → 65%
Q3 14:37
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+1
68.2%
Tank Bigsby run for 1 yd to the Aub 27Similar
Q3 14:08
2ND & 9
OWN 27
+7
67.1%
Bo Nix pass complete to Malcolm Johnson Jr. for 7 yds to the Aub 34Similar
Q3 13:30
3RD & 2
OWN 34
-3
66.4%
Tank Bigsby run for a loss of 3 yards to the Aub 31Similar
Q3 13:11
4TH & 5
OWN 31
0
64.9%
Oscar Chapman punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Quavian White at the GeoSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 15PUNT
13 plays · 44 yds · 5:3036% → 50%
Q3 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+2
63.9%
Tucker Gregg run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 21Similar
Q3 12:42
2ND & 8
OWN 21
0
63.4%
Darren Grainger pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:34
3RD & 8
OWN 21
+14
63.4%
Darren Grainger run for 14 yds to the GeoSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:12
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
61.7%
Tucker Gregg run for no gain to the GeoSt 35Similar
Q3 11:40
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+7
60.8%
Darren Grainger run for 7 yds to the GeoSt 42Similar
Q3 11:22
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+6
59.3%
Destin Coates run for 6 yds to the GeoSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-6
56.2%
Darren Grainger sacked by TEAM for a loss of 6 yards to the GeoSt 42 Darren Grainger fumbled, recovered by GeoSt Johnathan Bass , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q3 9:49
2ND & 16
OWN 42
+6
55.7%
Darren Grainger run for 6 yds to the GeoSt 48Similar
Q3 8:58
3RD & 10
OWN 48
+14
52.7%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Terrance Dixon for 14 yds to the Aub 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:46
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
51.3%
Destin Coates run for 2 yds to the Aub 36Similar
Q3 8:19
2ND & 8
OPP 36
0
50.4%
Darren Grainger pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:59
3RD & 8
OPP 36
-1
50.0%
Darren Grainger run for a loss of 1 yard to the Aub 37Similar
Q3 7:28
4TH & 9
OPP 37
0
50.1%
Michael Hayes punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Ja'Varrius Johnson at the Aub 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 21 yds · 0:4253% → 51%
Q3 7:17
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+21
53.4%
Bo Nix pass complete to Shedrick Jackson for 21 yds to the Aub 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
53.8%
Bo Nix pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:51
2ND & 10
OWN 30
0
53.1%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Malcolm Johnson Jr.Similar
Q3 6:43
3RD & 10
OWN 30
0
51.5%
Bo Nix pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:35
4TH & 10
OWN 30
0
50.6%
Oscar Chapman punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Quavian White at the GeoSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 17PUNT TD
4 plays · -6 yds · 1:4052% → 35%
Q3 6:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
47.9%
Jamyest Williams run for a loss of 3 yards to the GeoSt 22Similar
Q3 5:45
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+3
47.2%
Jamyest Williams run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 25Similar
Q3 5:10
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-6
46.1%
Darren Grainger sacked by Eku Leota for a loss of 6 yards to the GeoSt 19Similar
Q3 4:44
4TH & 16
OWN 19
0
65.0%
Barton Lester 0 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Anders Carlson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:2238% → 38%
Q3 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
61.7%
Tucker Gregg run for a loss of 2 yards to the GeoSt 23Similar
Q3 4:05
2ND & 12
OWN 23
0
60.9%
Darren Grainger pass incomplete to Jamari ThrashSimilar
Q3 3:45
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+4
61.8%
Darren Grainger run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 27Similar
Q3 3:10
4TH & 8
OWN 27
+11
62.0%
Michael Hayes punt for 44 yds , Ja'Varrius Johnson returns for 11 yds to the Aub 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 19MISSED FG
8 plays · 37 yds · 2:5564% → 58%
Q3 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+8
64.3%
Jarquez Hunter run for 8 yds to the Aub 48Similar
Q3 2:28
2ND & 2
OWN 48
+1
65.2%
Jarquez Hunter run for 1 yd to the Aub 49Similar
Q3 2:00
3RD & 1
OWN 49
+2
63.6%
TJ Finley run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+24
64.5%
TJ Finley pass complete to Ze'Vian Capers for 9 yds to the GeoSt 40 for a 1ST down GEORGIA ST Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (15 Yards) to the GeoSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
65.6%
Jarquez Hunter run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 24Similar
Q3 0:20
2ND & 9
OPP 24
+1
63.9%
Jarquez Hunter run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 23Similar
Q4 14:56
3RD & 8
OPP 23
0
61.0%
TJ Finley pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:50
4TH & 8
OPP 23
+40
57.9%
Anders Carlson 40 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:1549% → 49%
Q4 14:21
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
51.1%
Tucker Gregg run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 27Similar
Q4 13:58
2ND & 6
OWN 27
+3
49.3%
Tucker Gregg run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 30Similar
Q4 13:30
3RD & 3
OWN 30
-3
49.0%
Terrance Dixon run for a loss of 3 yards to the GeoSt 27Similar
Q4 13:06
4TH & 6
OWN 27
0
51.4%
Michael Hayes punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Ja'Varrius Johnson at the Aub 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:5254% → 48%
Q4 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
53.5%
Tank Bigsby run for 2 yds to the Aub 32Similar
Q4 12:34
2ND & 8
OWN 32
-3
53.3%
TJ Finley sacked by Jordan Veneziale for a loss of 3 yards to the Aub 29Similar
Q4 11:30
3RD & 11
OWN 29
+6
48.8%
TJ Finley pass complete to Ze'Vian Capers for 6 yds to the Aub 35Similar
Q4 10:58
4TH & 5
OWN 35
0
48.4%
Oscar Chapman punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Terrance Dixon at the GeoSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:4958% → 56%
Q4 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+1
41.6%
Destin Coates run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 24Similar
Q4 10:18
2ND & 9
OWN 24
0
41.7%
Darren Grainger run for no gain to the GeoSt 24Similar
Q4 9:46
3RD & 9
OWN 24
0
42.6%
Darren Grainger pass incomplete to Terrance DixonSimilar
Q4 9:41
4TH & 9
OWN 24
0
44.4%
Michael Hayes punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Ja'Varrius Johnson at the Aub 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 23FUMBLE
8 plays · 38 yds · 2:5251% → 48%
Q4 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
50.5%
TJ Finley pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:28
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+6
50.0%
Tank Bigsby run for 6 yds to the Aub 44Similar
Q4 8:50
3RD & 4
OWN 44
+9
50.3%
TJ Finley pass complete to Ja'Varrius Johnson for 9 yds to the GeoSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:01
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
52.3%
Tank Bigsby run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 42Similar
Q4 7:50
2ND & 5
OPP 42
0
49.3%
TJ Finley pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:32
3RD & 5
OPP 42
+9
48.0%
TJ Finley pass complete to Kobe Hudson for 9 yds to the GeoSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+2
48.1%
Tank Bigsby run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 31Similar
Q4 6:43
2ND & 8
OPP 31
+7
47.7%
Tank Bigsby run for 7 yds to the GeoSt 24 Tank Bigsby fumbled, recovered by GeoSt Jordan VenezialeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 24PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 2:5770% → 77%
Q4 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
30.5%
Tucker Gregg run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 25Similar
Q4 5:55
2ND & 9
OWN 25
+22
30.2%
Darren Grainger run for 22 yds to the GeoSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-1
22.8%
Destin Coates run for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSt 46Similar
Q4 4:40
2ND & 11
OWN 46
+3
21.5%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Destin Coates for 3 yds to the GeoSt 49Similar
Q4 4:00
3RD & 8
OWN 49
-5
20.5%
Darren Grainger sacked by Derick Hall and T.D. Moultry for a loss of 5 yards to the GeoSt 44Similar
Q4 3:23
4TH & 13
OWN 44
0
22.9%
Michael Hayes punt for 54 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Aub 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 25TD
14 plays · 98 yds · 2:2830% → 92%
Q4 3:13
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+18
29.6%
Jarquez Hunter run for 18 yds to the Aub 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
29.1%
Jarquez Hunter run for a loss of 1 yard to the Aub 19Similar
Q4 2:31
2ND & 11
OWN 19
0
27.7%
TJ Finley pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:23
3RD & 11
OWN 19
+15
26.0%
TJ Finley pass complete to Kobe Hudson for 15 yds to the Aub 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+8
28.1%
TJ Finley pass complete to Elijah Canion for 8 yds to the Aub 42Similar
Q4 1:45
2ND & 2
OWN 42
+16
31.6%
TJ Finley run for 16 yds to the GeoSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:29
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
31.1%
TJ Finley pass incomplete to Ja'Varrius JohnsonSimilar
Q4 1:19
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+12
28.1%
TJ Finley pass complete to Elijah Canion for 12 yds to the GeoSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:13
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+19
33.8%
TJ Finley pass complete to John Samuel Shenker for 19 yds to the GeoSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:02
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+1
34.8%
Jarquez Hunter run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 10Similar
Q4 0:59
2ND & 9
OPP 10
0
31.2%
TJ Finley pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:53
3RD & 9
OPP 10
0
24.6%
TJ Finley pass incomplete to Kobe HudsonSimilar
Q4 0:45
4TH & 9
OPP 10
+10
92.2%
TJ Finley pass complete to Shedrick Jackson for 10 yds for a TD, (TJ Finley pass to Kobe Hudson for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 26INT TD
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:1020% → 6%
Q4 0:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
79.8%
Darren Grainger pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:31
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-36
94.1%
Darren Grainger pass intercepted for a TD Smoke Monday return for 36 yds for a TD, (Anders Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 27END OF GAME
3 plays · 20 yds · 0:196% → 7%
Q4 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
94.1%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Roger Carter for 5 yds to the GeoSt 30Similar
Q4 0:01
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+15
93.2%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Roger Carter for 15 yds to the GeoSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:45
TJ Finley pass complete to Shedrick Jackson for 10 yds for a TD, (TJ Finley pass to Kobe Hudson for Two-Point Conversion)
+67.6
TD · Q3 4:44
Barton Lester 0 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Anders Carlson Kick)
+18.9
TD · Q4 0:31
Darren Grainger pass intercepted for a TD Smoke Monday return for 36 yds for a TD, (Anders Carlson KICK)
+14.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com