Try the model
ARST

Arkansas State 20 at Georgia State 28

GAST
2021 · Week 12 · Nov 20, 2021 · Center Parc Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · GAST
modelGAST aheadARST aheadconfidence bandkey playGAST scoreARST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 6:28 · M.Hayes punts 56 yards to ARKS 13, Center-C.Flint. Downed by T.Williams.
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+37.0+18.50−18.5−37.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 146Pregame prior+4.7Home team on offense+25.7Score differential+12.8Garbage-time factor+13.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+5.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+3.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 10:52: T.Gregg rushed to ARKS End Zone for 6 yards. T.Gregg for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. — GAST win probability +4.1 pts (now 87%) (top driver: GAST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 10:00: L.Hatcher pass complete to ARKS 17. Catch made by L.Pare at ARKS 17. Gain of 83 yards. L.Pare for 83 yards, TOUCHDOWN. — ARST win probability +3.8 pts (now 18%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q3 3:09: T.Gregg rushed to GST 42 for 6 yards. Tackled by ARKS at GST 42. — GAST win probability +5.4 pts (now 74%) (top driver: GAST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 15:00: J.Williams rushed to ARKS End Zone for 13 yards. J.Williams for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. — GAST win probability +14.0 pts (now 90%) (top driver: GAST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 12:42: D.Grainger rushed to ARKS End Zone for 35 yards. D.Grainger for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN. — GAST win probability +5.5 pts (now 96%) (top driver: GAST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
GAST made the numbers' call on 5 of 5ARST made the numbers' call on 5 of 9
  1. Q1 11:33ARST 4th & 10 at GAST 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 16.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.1%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    16.2%
    72% to make
    Punt
    15.8%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:20GAST 4th & 5 at GAST 30, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.1%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:49ARST 4th & 10 at ARST 26, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.6%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.7%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:57ARST 4th & 1 at ARST 33, up 3
    Close callPunted · 18.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.3%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:06GAST 4th & 3 at GAST 32, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.3%−0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:39ARST 4th & 6 at ARST 33, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.8%−0.4
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.3%
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:02ARST 4th & 15 at GAST 18, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 22.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.9%−1.4
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    22.3%
    79% to make
    Punt
    18.0%−4.3
    average punt
  8. Q3 13:20ARST 4th & 2 at ARST 41, down 1
    Close callPunted · 25.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.0%−0.4
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:35GAST 4th & 20 at GAST 38, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.5%−2.8
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.3%
    average punt
  10. Q3 4:53GAST 4th & 9 at ARST 30, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 72.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.1%−0.8
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    72.9%
    56% to make
    Punt
    70.8%−2.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 1:16ARST 4th & 2 at ARST 25, down 1
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 27.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.7%−1.2
    average punt
  12. Q4 7:37ARST 4th & 17 at GAST 34, down 15
    Close callWent for it · 4.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.8%−0.7
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    4.4%
    47% to make
    Punt
    3.8%−0.6
    average punt
  13. Q4 6:28GAST 4th & 5 at GAST 31, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.6%−0.3
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.0%
    average punt
  14. Q4 4:47ARST 4th & 5 at ARST 18, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.5%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
GAST made the numbers' call on 4 of 4ARST made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 1:39GAST Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 10:52GAST Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 10:00ARST Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    19.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    19.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 15:00GAST Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 12:42GAST Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
GASTDrive 1FUMBLE
4 plays · 21 yds · 0:3987% → 87%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
86.7%
D.Grainger steps back to pass. D.Grainger pass incomplete intended for J.Credle.Similar
Q1 14:54
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
86.7%
D.Grainger steps back to pass. D.Grainger pass incomplete intended for S.Pinckney.Similar
Q1 14:48
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+28
86.6%
D.Grainger pass complete to GST 25. Catch made by S.Pinckney at GST 25. Gain of 28 yards. Tackled by T.Doss at ARKS 47.Similar
Q1 14:21
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-7
86.6%
D.Grainger rushed to GST 46 for -7 yards. D.Grainger FUMBLES, forced by ARKS. Fumble RECOVERED by ARKS-J.Harris at GST 46. Tackled by GST at GST 46.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 2FG
9 plays · 23 yds · 2:3714% → 14%
Q1 14:10
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+1
86.4%
L.Hatcher pass complete to GST 46. Catch made by S.Traore at GST 46. Gain of 1 yards. Pushed out of bounds by C.Moore at GST 45.Similar
Q1 13:51
2ND & 9
OPP 45
+5
86.3%
L.Pare rushed to GST 40 for 5 yards. Tackled by J.Taylor at GST 40.Similar
Q1 13:23
3RD & 4
OPP 40
0
86.2%
L.Hatcher steps back to pass. L.Hatcher pass incomplete intended for R.Ealy. PENALTY on GST-J.Jones, Defensive Pass Interference, 2 yards, accepted. No Play.Similar
Q1 13:19
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+1
86.1%
L.Pare rushed to GST 37 for 1 yards. Tackled by T.Gore at GST 37.Similar
Q1 12:46
2ND & 9
OPP 37
+15
85.9%
L.Hatcher pass complete to GST 37. Catch made by C.Rucker at GST 37. Gain of 15 yards. Pushed out of bounds by B.Brown at GST 22.Similar
Q1 12:21
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
85.7%
L.Hatcher steps back to pass. L.Hatcher pass incomplete intended for R.Painter.Similar
Q1 12:17
2ND & 10
OPP 22
0
85.7%
L.Hatcher steps back to pass. L.Hatcher pass incomplete intended for J.Foreman.Similar
Q1 12:12
3RD & 10
OPP 22
-1
85.8%
L.Hatcher pass complete to GST 22. Catch made by A.Lamar at GST 22. Gain of -1 yards. Tackled by J.Jones; J.Veneziale at GST 23.Similar
Q1 11:33
4TH & 10
OPP 22
0
85.6%
B.Grupe 40 yard field goal attempt is good, Center-J.Bullard, Holder-R.Hanson.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:0786% → 85%
Q1 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
85.5%
T.Gregg rushed to GST 26 for 1 yards. Tackled by K.Bennett; M.Straker at GST 26.Similar
Q1 10:54
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+4
85.3%
T.Gregg rushed to GST 30 for 4 yards. Pushed out of bounds by M.Straker at GST 30.Similar
Q1 10:27
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
85.1%
D.Grainger steps back to pass. D.Grainger pass incomplete intended for C.McCoy.Similar
Q1 10:20
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+44
84.9%
M.Hayes punts 44 yards to ARKS 26, Center-C.Flint. Downed by S.Glausier.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:1815% → 15%
Q1 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
85.1%
L.Hatcher steps back to pass. L.Hatcher pass incomplete intended for T.Hunt.Similar
Q1 10:02
2ND & 10
OWN 26
0
85.0%
L.Hatcher steps back to pass. L.Hatcher pass incomplete intended for C.Rucker.Similar
Q1 9:58
3RD & 10
OWN 26
0
85.1%
L.Hatcher steps back to pass. L.Hatcher pass incomplete intended for D.Green.Similar
Q1 9:49
4TH & 10
OWN 26
+51
85.2%
R.Hanson punts 51 yards to GST 23, Center-J.Bullard. Fair catch by T.Dixon.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 2:0016% → 17%
Q1 7:57
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
84.2%
L.Hatcher pass complete to ARKS 24. Catch made by T.Hunt at ARKS 24. Gain of 3 yards. Tackled by J.Jones at ARKS 27.Similar
Q1 7:29
2ND & 7
OWN 27
0
83.9%
PENALTY on ARKS-M.Thomas, False Start, 5 yards, accepted. No Play.Similar
Q1 7:20
2ND & 12
OWN 22
+11
84.0%
L.Hatcher pass complete to ARKS 22. Catch made by T.Hunt at ARKS 22. Gain of 11 yards. Tackled by J.Veneziale at ARKS 33.Similar
Q1 6:43
3RD & 1
OWN 33
0
83.6%
L.Hatcher rushed to ARKS 33 for 0 yards. Tackled by T.Gore at ARKS 33.Similar
Q1 5:57
4TH & 1
OWN 33
+52
83.5%
R.Hanson punts 52 yards to GST 15, Center-J.Bullard. Fair catch by T.Dixon.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 6TD
13 plays · 85 yds · 4:0883% → 84%
Q1 5:47
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+20
83.0%
J.Williams rushed to GST 35 for 20 yards. Pushed out of bounds by D.Green at GST 35.Similar
Q1 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
83.0%
J.Williams rushed to GST 40 for 5 yards. Tackled by J.Harris; M.Straker at GST 40.Similar
Q1 5:04
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+15
83.3%
T.Dixon rushed to ARKS 45 for 15 yards. Tackled by D.Green at ARKS 45.Similar
Q1 4:38
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
83.3%
D.Grainger pass complete to ARKS 45. Catch made by J.Thrash at ARKS 45. Gain of 0 yards. Tackled by T.Doss at ARKS 45.Similar
Q1 4:28
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+5
83.2%
D.Grainger scrambles to ARKS 40 for 5 yards. Tackled by M.Straker at ARKS 40.Similar
Q1 3:43
3RD & 5
OPP 40
+18
82.9%
D.Grainger rushed to ARKS 22 for 18 yards. Tackled by T.Doss; J.Ozougwu at ARKS 22.Similar
Q1 3:24
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
83.2%
J.Williams rushed to ARKS 20 for 2 yards. Tackled by C.Bonner; C.Willekes at ARKS 20.Similar
Q1 2:57
2ND & 8
OPP 20
0
83.0%
D.Grainger steps back to pass. D.Grainger pass incomplete intended for C.McCoy.Similar
Q1 2:51
3RD & 8
OPP 20
0
82.7%
D.Grainger steps back to pass. D.Grainger pass incomplete intended for J.Thrash. PENALTY on ARKS-S.Tuitavake, Roughing the Passer, 10 yards, accepted. No Play.Similar
Q1 2:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
83.0%
D.Grainger scrambles to ARKS 9 for 1 yards. Tackled by D.Green at ARKS 9.Similar
Q1 2:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
82.6%
D.Grainger steps back to pass. D.Grainger pass incomplete intended for J.Thrash. PENALTY on ARKS-D.Blackwell, Defensive Pass Interference, 7 yards, accepted. No Play.Similar
Q1 1:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
82.6%
J.Williams rushed to ARKS 1 for 1 yards. Tackled by C.Willekes at ARKS 1.Similar
Q1 1:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
84.2%
J.Williams rushed to ARKS End Zone for 1 yards. J.Williams for 1 yards, TOUCHDOWN.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 7TD
11 plays · 74 yds · 4:0083% → 87%
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+7
82.9%
J.Williams rushed to GST 33 for 7 yards. Tackled by C.Bonner; M.Straker at GST 33.Similar
Q2 14:29
2ND & 3
OWN 33
+3
83.1%
J.Williams rushed to GST 36 for 3 yards. Tackled by M.Straker at GST 36.Similar
Q2 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
82.9%
D.Grainger pass complete to GST 36. Catch made by C.McCoy at GST 36. Gain of 6 yards. Pushed out of bounds by E.Alexander at GST 42.Similar
Q2 13:52
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+2
83.2%
J.Williams rushed to GST 44 for 2 yards. Tackled by M.Straker at GST 44.Similar
Q2 13:24
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+10
82.9%
T.Gregg rushed to ARKS 46 for 10 yards. Tackled by E.Alexander at ARKS 46.Similar
Q2 13:01
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+7
83.3%
T.Gregg rushed to ARKS 39 for 7 yards. Tackled by K.Bennett; J.Reimonenq at ARKS 39.Similar
Q2 12:42
2ND & 3
OPP 39
+2
83.2%
T.Gregg rushed to ARKS 37 for 2 yards. Tackled by C.Bonner; M.Straker at ARKS 37.Similar
Q2 12:03
3RD & 1
OPP 37
+20
82.8%
J.Williams rushed to ARKS 17 for 20 yards. Tackled by K.Harris at ARKS 17.Similar
Q2 11:34
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+6
83.2%
T.Gregg rushed to ARKS 11 for 6 yards. Tackled by M.Straker at ARKS 11.Similar
Q2 11:08
2ND & 4
OPP 11
+5
83.1%
T.Gregg rushed to ARKS 6 for 5 yards. Tackled by E.Alexander at ARKS 6.Similar
Q2 10:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
87.2%
T.Gregg rushed to ARKS End Zone for 6 yards. T.Gregg for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 8TD
3 plays · 77 yds · 0:4914% → 18%
Q2 10:49
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
85.9%
L.Hatcher steps back to pass. L.Hatcher pass incomplete intended for T.Hunt.Similar
Q2 10:38
2ND & 10
OWN 23
-6
85.9%
J.Lang rushed to ARKS 17 for -6 yards. Tackled by J.Hunter at ARKS 17.Similar
Q2 10:00
3RD & 16
OWN 17
+83
82.1%
L.Hatcher pass complete to ARKS 17. Catch made by L.Pare at ARKS 17. Gain of 83 yards. L.Pare for 83 yards, TOUCHDOWN.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:3881% → 81%
Q2 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
81.4%
T.Gregg rushed to GST 27 for 2 yards. Tackled by T.Ayers at GST 27.Similar
Q2 9:17
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+4
81.3%
T.Gregg rushed to GST 31 for 4 yards. Tackled by C.Willekes; J.Reimonenq at GST 31.Similar
Q2 8:45
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+1
80.8%
T.Gregg rushed to GST 32 for 1 yards. Tackled by M.Straker at GST 32.Similar
Q2 8:06
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+39
80.8%
M.Hayes punts 39 yards to ARKS 29, Center-C.Flint. Out of bounds.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:1919% → 19%
Q2 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
80.8%
L.Hatcher steps back to pass. L.Hatcher pass incomplete intended for A.Jones.Similar
Q2 7:53
2ND & 10
OWN 29
-7
81.0%
L.Hatcher steps back to pass. L.Hatcher sacked at ARKS 22 for -7 yards (T.Gore)Similar
Q2 7:18
3RD & 17
OWN 22
+11
81.5%
L.Pare rushed to ARKS 33 for 11 yards. Pushed out of bounds by J.Muhammad at ARKS 33.Similar
Q2 6:39
4TH & 6
OWN 33
+45
81.4%
R.Hanson punts 45 yards to GST 22, Center-J.Bullard. Downed by A.Hayes.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 11FG
17 plays · 48 yds · 4:3221% → 23%
Q2 4:34
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
79.5%
L.Hatcher steps back to pass. L.Hatcher pass incomplete intended for J.Foreman.Similar
Q2 4:27
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+2
79.7%
L.Pare rushed to ARKS 36 for 2 yards. Tackled by H.Willis at ARKS 36.Similar
Q2 3:51
3RD & 8
OWN 36
+17
79.8%
L.Hatcher pass complete to ARKS 36. Catch made by O.Walker at ARKS 36. Gain of 17 yards. Tackled by A.Lane; B.Carroll at GST 47.Similar
Q2 3:33
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+11
77.6%
L.Hatcher pass complete to GST 47. Catch made by T.Hunt at GST 47. Gain of 11 yards. Pushed out of bounds by J.Jones at GST 36.Similar
Q2 3:22
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
77.5%
L.Pare rushed to GST 36 for 0 yards. Tackled by D.Wilson; H.Willis at GST 36.Similar
Q2 2:46
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+5
77.2%
L.Hatcher pass complete to GST 36. Catch made by A.Lamar at GST 36. Gain of 5 yards. Tackled by T.Gore at GST 31.Similar
Q2 2:04
3RD & 5
OPP 31
+6
77.0%
L.Hatcher pass complete to GST 31. Catch made by J.Foreman at GST 31. Gain of 6 yards. Tackled by B.Brown at GST 25.Similar
Q2 1:51
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-1
75.5%
L.Hatcher pass complete to GST 25. Catch made by C.Rucker at GST 25. Gain of -1 yards. Tackled by J.Hunter at GST 26.Similar
Q2 1:12
2ND & 11
OPP 26
+5
75.5%
L.Pare rushed to GST 21 for 5 yards. Pushed out of bounds by J.Muhammad at GST 21.Similar
Q2 1:05
3RD & 6
OPP 21
+8
76.1%
L.Hatcher pass complete to GST 21. Catch made by S.Traore at GST 21. Gain of 8 yards. Pushed out of bounds by C.Moore at GST 13.Similar
Q2 0:59
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
75.1%
L.Hatcher steps back to pass. L.Hatcher pass incomplete intended for C.Rucker.Similar
Q2 0:53
2ND & 10
OPP 13
0
75.1%
L.Hatcher steps back to pass. L.Hatcher pass incomplete intended for T.Hunt.Similar
Q2 0:45
3RD & 10
OPP 13
-5
76.3%
L.Hatcher steps back to pass. L.Hatcher sacked at GST 18 for -5 yards (D.Wilson)Similar
Q2 0:02
4TH & 15
OPP 18
0
77.3%
B.Grupe 36 yard field goal attempt is good, Center-J.Bullard, Holder-R.Hanson.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 18 yds · 1:3623% → 24%
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+10
77.3%
L.Pare rushed to ARKS 33 for 10 yards. Pushed out of bounds by J.Jones at ARKS 33.Similar
Q3 14:31
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
76.6%
L.Hatcher steps back to pass. L.Hatcher pass incomplete intended for C.Rucker.Similar
Q3 14:22
2ND & 10
OWN 33
-2
76.9%
L.Pare rushed to ARKS 31 for -2 yards. Tackled by GST at ARKS 31.Similar
Q3 13:49
3RD & 12
OWN 31
+10
77.8%
L.Hatcher pass complete to ARKS 31. Catch made by L.Pare at ARKS 31. Gain of 10 yards. L.Pare ran out of bounds.Similar
Q3 13:20
4TH & 2
OWN 41
+49
76.3%
R.Hanson punts 49 yards to GST 10, Center-J.Bullard. Fair catch by T.Dixon.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 13PUNT
7 plays · 28 yds · 1:3777% → 75%
Q3 13:12
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
77.3%
D.Grainger steps back to pass. D.Grainger pass incomplete intended for S.Pinckney.Similar
Q3 13:04
2ND & 10
OWN 10
+38
77.1%
D.Grainger pass complete to GST 10. Catch made by J.Thrash at GST 10. Gain of 38 yards. Pushed out of bounds by ARKS at GST 48.Similar
Q3 12:22
1ST & 20
OWN 38
0
77.4%
J.Williams rushed to GST 38 for 0 yards. Tackled by C.Willekes at GST 38.Similar
Q3 11:46
2ND & 20
OWN 38
0
76.8%
D.Grainger steps back to pass. D.Grainger pass incomplete intended for J.Thrash.Similar
Q3 11:42
3RD & 20
OWN 38
0
75.8%
D.Grainger steps back to pass. D.Grainger pass incomplete intended for S.Pinckney.Similar
Q3 11:35
4TH & 20
OWN 38
+34
74.9%
M.Hayes punts 34 yards to ARKS 28, Center-C.Flint. Downed by GST.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 14INT
10 plays · 47 yds · 3:2524% → 28%
Q3 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-5
75.6%
L.Hatcher steps back to pass. L.Hatcher sacked at ARKS 23 for -5 yards (A.Smith)Similar
Q3 8:03
2ND & 15
OWN 23
+7
74.9%
L.Hatcher pass complete to ARKS 23. Catch made by L.Pare at ARKS 23. Gain of 7 yards. Tackled by A.Lane at ARKS 30. PENALTY on GST-T.Moore, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, accepted.Similar
Q3 10:33
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
73.4%
L.Hatcher steps back to pass. L.Hatcher pass incomplete intended for C.Rucker.Similar
Q3 10:26
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+3
73.9%
L.Pare rushed to ARKS 48 for 3 yards. Tackled by J.Denis; C.Moore at ARKS 48.Similar
Q3 9:52
3RD & 7
OWN 48
0
73.4%
L.Hatcher steps back to pass. L.Hatcher pass incomplete intended for D.Green. PENALTY on GST-J.Jones, Defensive Holding, 10 yards, accepted. No Play.Similar
Q3 9:42
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+16
72.3%
A.Lamar rushed to GST 26 for 16 yards. Tackled by R.Cooper; B.Carroll at GST 26.Similar
Q3 9:19
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-3
70.7%
A.Lamar rushed to GST 29 for -3 yards. Tackled by D.Wilson at GST 29.Similar
Q3 8:43
2ND & 13
OPP 29
+4
71.4%
L.Hatcher pass complete to GST 29. Catch made by C.Rucker at GST 29. Gain of 4 yards. Tackled by J.Veneziale; J.Hunter at GST 25.Similar
Q3 8:03
3RD & 9
OPP 25
0
71.7%
L.Hatcher pass INTERCEPTED at GST 1. Intercepted by B.Brown at GST 1. Tackled by ARKS at GST 1.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 15MISSED FG
11 plays · 69 yds · 3:0375% → 74%
Q3 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
74.7%
T.Gregg rushed to GST 1 for 0 yards. Tackled by J.Ozougwu at GST 1.Similar
Q3 7:25
2ND & 10
OWN 1
+5
74.3%
PENALTY on ARKS-V.Scott, Defensive Offside, 5 yards, accepted. No Play.Similar
Q3 7:19
2ND & 5
OWN 6
-2
74.2%
T.Gregg rushed to GST 4 for -2 yards. Tackled by V.Scott at GST 4.Similar
Q3 6:34
3RD & 7
OWN 4
+36
72.8%
D.Grainger pass complete to GST 4. Catch made by J.Thrash at GST 4. Gain of 36 yards. Tackled by S.Johnson at GST 40. PENALTY on ARKS-S.Johnson, Defensive Pass Interference, 15 yards, declined.Similar
Q3 6:27
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+29
76.2%
D.Grainger pass complete to GST 40. Catch made by J.Thrash at GST 40. Gain of 29 yards. J.Thrash ran out of bounds.Similar
Q3 6:14
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+1
78.3%
J.Williams rushed to ARKS 30 for 1 yards. Tackled by K.Bennett at ARKS 30.Similar
Q3 5:36
2ND & 9
OPP 30
0
78.1%
D.Grainger rushed to ARKS 30 for 0 yards. Tackled by J.Ozougwu at ARKS 30.Similar
Q3 5:00
3RD & 9
OPP 30
0
76.3%
D.Grainger steps back to pass. D.Grainger pass incomplete intended for S.Pinckney.Similar
Q3 4:53
4TH & 9
OPP 30
0
73.8%
N.Ruiz 48 yard field goal attempt is no good, Center-C.Flint, Holder-M.Hayes.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 16INT
6 plays · 31 yds · 1:2728% → 32%
Q3 4:46
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-2
72.4%
L.Pare rushed to ARKS 28 for -2 yards. Tackled by J.Denis at ARKS 28.Similar
Q3 4:15
2ND & 12
OWN 28
+17
72.9%
L.Hatcher pass complete to ARKS 28. Catch made by T.Hunt at ARKS 28. Gain of 17 yards. Tackled by J.Jones at ARKS 45.Similar
Q3 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
69.7%
L.Hatcher steps back to pass. L.Hatcher pass incomplete intended for A.Jones.Similar
Q3 3:58
2ND & 10
OWN 45
0
70.5%
L.Hatcher steps back to pass. L.Hatcher pass incomplete intended for ARKS.Similar
Q3 3:50
3RD & 10
OWN 45
+16
71.4%
L.Hatcher pass complete to ARKS 45. Catch made by A.Jones at ARKS 45. Gain of 16 yards. Tackled by J.Veneziale at GST 39.Similar
Q3 3:19
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-18
68.4%
L.Hatcher pass INTERCEPTED at GST 18. Intercepted by A.Lane at GST 18. Pushed out of bounds by A.Jones at GST 36.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 17INT
2 plays · 6 yds · 0:2774% → 75%
Q3 3:09
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
73.9%
T.Gregg rushed to GST 42 for 6 yards. Tackled by ARKS at GST 42.Similar
Q3 2:42
2ND & 4
OWN 42
0
75.3%
D.Grainger pass INTERCEPTED at ARKS 17. Intercepted by S.Johnson at ARKS 17. S.Johnson ran out of bounds.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:1828% → 26%
Q3 2:34
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
71.9%
L.Pare rushed to ARKS 17 for 0 yards. Tackled by A.Smith at ARKS 17.Similar
Q3 2:04
2ND & 10
OWN 17
0
72.2%
L.Hatcher steps back to pass. L.Hatcher pass incomplete intended for C.Rucker.Similar
Q3 1:58
3RD & 10
OWN 17
+8
73.4%
L.Hatcher pass complete to ARKS 17. Catch made by S.Traore at ARKS 17. Gain of 8 yards. Tackled by A.Lane; C.Moore at ARKS 25.Similar
Q3 1:16
4TH & 2
OWN 25
+43
73.7%
R.Hanson punts 43 yards to GST 32, Center-J.Bullard. Out of bounds.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 19TD
5 plays · 68 yds · 1:0972% → 90%
Q3 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+37
72.4%
J.Williams rushed to ARKS 31 for 37 yards. Tackled by C.Willekes at ARKS 31.Similar
Q3 0:56
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+13
76.6%
D.Grainger pass complete to ARKS 31. Catch made by S.Pinckney at ARKS 31. Gain of 13 yards. Tackled by J.Reimonenq at ARKS 18.Similar
Q3 0:40
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+5
76.5%
J.Williams rushed to ARKS 13 for 5 yards. Tackled by J.Ozougwu at ARKS 13.Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 13
+13
90.3%
J.Williams rushed to ARKS End Zone for 13 yards. J.Williams for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 20TD
3 plays · 50 yds · 0:2791% → 96%
Q4 13:09
1ST & 10
OPP 0
+6
90.7%
D.Grainger pass complete to ARKS 50. Catch made by R.Carter at ARKS 50. Gain of 6 yards. Pushed out of bounds by ARKS at ARKS 44.Similar
Q4 13:02
2ND & 4
OPP 44
+9
90.6%
T.Gregg rushed to ARKS 35 for 9 yards. Tackled by ARKS at ARKS 35.Similar
Q4 12:42
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+35
96.1%
D.Grainger rushed to ARKS End Zone for 35 yards. D.Grainger for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 21DOWNS
11 plays · 49 yds · 4:476% → 4%
Q4 12:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
94.2%
L.Pare rushed to ARKS 29 for 4 yards. Tackled by B.Carroll at ARKS 29.Similar
Q4 11:55
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+9
94.2%
L.Hatcher pass complete to ARKS 29. Catch made by L.Pare at ARKS 29. Gain of 9 yards. Pushed out of bounds by B.Carroll at ARKS 38.Similar
Q4 11:36
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
94.1%
L.Hatcher pass complete to ARKS 38. Catch made by L.Pare at ARKS 38. Gain of 7 yards. Pushed out of bounds by C.Moore at ARKS 45.Similar
Q4 11:25
2ND & 3
OWN 45
+8
94.1%
L.Hatcher pass complete to ARKS 45. Catch made by A.Jones at ARKS 45. Gain of 8 yards. Tackled by B.Brown at GST 47.Similar
Q4 10:54
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
94.0%
A.Lamar rushed to GST 47 for 0 yards. Tackled by T.Gore at GST 47.Similar
Q4 10:18
2ND & 10
OPP 47
0
94.4%
L.Hatcher steps back to pass. L.Hatcher pass incomplete intended for A.Jones.Similar
Q4 10:07
3RD & 10
OPP 47
+5
95.0%
L.Hatcher pass complete to GST 47. Catch made by A.Lamar at GST 47. Gain of 5 yards. Tackled by J.Veneziale at GST 42. PENALTY on GST-S.McCollum, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, accepted.Similar
Q4 9:44
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+7
94.0%
L.Hatcher pass complete to GST 27. Catch made by A.Lamar at GST 27. Gain of 7 yards. Tackled by C.Moore at GST 20.Similar
Q4 9:32
2ND & 3
OPP 20
-5
94.0%
O.Walker rushed to GST 25 for -5 yards. O.Walker FUMBLES, forced by A.Lane. Fumble RECOVERED by ARKS-J.Still at GST 25. Tackled by GST at GST 25.Similar
Q4 9:07
3RD & 8
OPP 25
-9
94.8%
L.Hatcher steps back to pass. L.Hatcher sacked at GST 34 for -9 yards (J.Veneziale)Similar
Q4 7:37
4TH & 17
OPP 34
+8
95.9%
L.Hatcher pass complete to GST 34. Catch made by S.Traore at GST 34. Gain of 8 yards. Tackled by T.Gordon at GST 26.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:0397% → 97%
Q4 7:31
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
96.6%
T.Gregg rushed to GST 30 for 4 yards. Tackled by J.Ozougwu at GST 30.Similar
Q4 7:08
2ND & 6
OWN 30
+1
96.8%
D.Grainger rushed to GST 31 for 1 yards. Tackled by C.Bonner at GST 31.Similar
Q4 6:33
3RD & 5
OWN 31
0
96.9%
D.Grainger steps back to pass. D.Grainger pass incomplete intended for J.Thrash.Similar
Q4 6:28
4TH & 5
OWN 31
+56
96.8%
M.Hayes punts 56 yards to ARKS 13, Center-C.Flint. Downed by T.Williams.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 23DOWNS
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:294% → 3%
Q4 6:16
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+2
96.3%
L.Hatcher pass complete to ARKS 13. Catch made by L.Pare at ARKS 13. Gain of 2 yards. Tackled by B.Carroll at ARKS 15.Similar
Q4 5:54
2ND & 8
OWN 15
+7
96.3%
L.Hatcher pass complete to ARKS 15. Catch made by S.Traore at ARKS 15. Gain of 7 yards. Tackled by B.Carroll at ARKS 22.Similar
Q4 5:21
3RD & 1
OWN 22
-4
96.1%
L.Pare rushed to ARKS 18 for -4 yards. Tackled by J.Hunter at ARKS 18.Similar
Q4 4:47
4TH & 5
OWN 18
0
97.3%
L.Hatcher steps back to pass. L.Hatcher pass incomplete intended for C.Rucker.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 24END OF GAME
14 plays · 32 yds · 3:2697% → 99%
Q4 4:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
97.3%
J.Williams rushed to GST 30 for 5 yards. Tackled by C.Willekes at GST 30.Similar
Q4 3:43
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+3
97.6%
J.Williams rushed to GST 33 for 3 yards. Tackled by J.Ozougwu at GST 33.Similar
Q4 3:34
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+3
97.7%
T.Gregg rushed to GST 36 for 3 yards. Tackled by P.Cox; J.Ozougwu at GST 36.Similar
Q4 2:59
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
97.9%
T.Gregg rushed to GST 40 for 4 yards. Tackled by M.Straker; E.Alexander at GST 40.Similar
Q4 2:30
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+5
98.0%
PENALTY on GST-C.McCoy, False Start, 5 yards, accepted. No Play.Similar
Q4 2:30
2ND & 11
OWN 35
+4
97.8%
T.Gregg rushed to GST 39 for 4 yards. Tackled by J.Reimonenq; C.Willekes at GST 39.Similar
Q4 2:22
3RD & 7
OWN 39
+8
98.0%
T.Gregg rushed to GST 47 for 8 yards. Tackled by E.Alexander at GST 47.Similar
Q4 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+8
98.4%
T.Gregg rushed to ARKS 45 for 8 yards. Tackled by E.Alexander; M.Straker at ARKS 45.Similar
Q4 1:33
2ND & 2
OPP 45
+6
98.4%
T.Gregg rushed to ARKS 39 for 6 yards. Tackled by C.Willekes; J.Reimonenq at ARKS 39.Similar
Q4 0:56
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
98.5%
D.Grainger kneels at the ARKS 41.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 15:00
J.Williams rushed to ARKS End Zone for 13 yards. J.Williams for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
+14
TD · Q4 12:42
D.Grainger rushed to ARKS End Zone for 35 yards. D.Grainger for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
+5.5
KEY PLAY · Q3 3:09
T.Gregg rushed to GST 42 for 6 yards. Tackled by ARKS at GST 42.
+5.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com