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GAST

Georgia State 17 at North Carolina 59

UNC
2021 · Week 2 · Sep 11, 2021 · Kenan Stadium
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Win probability · UNC
modelUNC aheadGAST aheadconfidence bandkey playUNC scoreGAST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 2:05 · Michael Hayes punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Josh Downs at the NCaro 34
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+44.5+22.30−22.3−44.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 179Pregame prior+2.3Home team on offense+36.6Score differential+30.3Garbage-time factor+9.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+14.8Blowout margin+19.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 7:55: Sam Howell pass complete to Antoine Green for 57 yds for a TD, (Grayson Atkins KICK) — UNC win probability +0.8 pts (now 94%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 13:49: Sam Howell pass complete to Emery Simmons for 30 yds for a TD, (Grayson Atkins KICK) — UNC win probability +2.1 pts (now 95%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 6:19: Cornelious Brown IV run for 4 yds for a TD, (Noel Ruiz KICK) — GAST win probability +3.1 pts (now 10%) (top driver: GAST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 5:32: British Brooks run for 1 yd for a TD, (Grayson Atkins KICK) — UNC win probability +2.9 pts (now 98%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 2:46: Ty Chandler run for 2 yds for a TD, (Grayson Atkins KICK) — UNC win probability +1.1 pts (now 100%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UNC made the numbers' call on 4 of 5GAST made the numbers' call on 11 of 12
  1. Q1 14:06GAST 4th & 12 at GAST 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.6%−0.2
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:11GAST 4th & 2 at UNC 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    6.3%−0.1
    51% to make
    Punt
    6.2%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:33GAST 4th & 11 at GAST 41, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.9%−0.3
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.2%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:28GAST 4th & 10 at UNC 19, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 6.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.9%−0.2
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    6.1%
    77% to make
    Punt
    5.1%−1.0
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:25UNC 4th & 1 at UNC 42, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 92.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    92.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    92.6%−0.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:20GAST 4th & 1 at UNC 21, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    5.1%−0.7
    74% to make
    Punt
    3.1%−2.7
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:53UNC 4th & 9 at UNC 30, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.2%−0.3
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.4%
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:03GAST 4th & 15 at GAST 12, down 11
    Close callWent for it · 7.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.0%−0.6
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    7.6%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:56UNC 4th & 12 at GAST 12, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 92.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.5%−0.6
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    92.1%
    86% to make
    Punt
    90.2%−1.9
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:12GAST 4th & 6 at GAST 29, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.1%−0.3
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.5%
    average punt
  11. Q3 12:21UNC 4th & 10 at GAST 17, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 93.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.9%−0.5
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    93.4%
    80% to make
    Punt
    91.0%−2.5
    average punt
  12. Q3 11:00GAST 4th & 1 at GAST 29, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    6.5%−0.8
    average punt
  13. Q3 9:03GAST 4th & 16 at GAST 25, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.8%−1.1
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.9%
    average punt
  14. Q3 4:35GAST 4th & 6 at GAST 29, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.8%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.0%
    average punt
  15. Q3 1:45GAST 4th & 10 at GAST 35, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  16. Q4 2:05GAST 4th & 5 at GAST 29, down 42
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.0%
    average punt
  17. Q4 0:23UNC 4th & 1 at UNC 43, up 42
    Close callPunted · 100.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    100.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNC made the numbers' call on 7 of 8GAST made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 11:45UNC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:55UNC Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 13:49UNC Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 6:19GAST Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    7.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    7.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 5:32UNC Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 2:46UNC Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 0:08UNC Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 11:22UNC Touchdown, up 41 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 8:13GAST Touchdown, down 36 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 4:03UNC Touchdown, up 41 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
GASTDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:396% → 6%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
94.4%
Destin Coates run for a loss of 2 yards to the GeoSt 23Similar
Q1 14:30
2ND & 12
OWN 23
0
94.4%
Cornelious Brown IV pass incomplete to Cornelius McCoySimilar
Q1 14:20
3RD & 12
OWN 23
0
94.4%
Cornelious Brown IV pass incomplete to Roger CarterSimilar
Q1 14:06
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
94.3%
Michael Hayes punt for 51 yds, downed at the NCaro 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 2TD
6 plays · 74 yds · 2:1594% → 94%
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
94.3%
Ty Chandler run for 2 yds to the NCaro 28Similar
Q1 13:45
2ND & 8
OWN 28
+4
94.2%
Ty Chandler run for 4 yds to the NCaro 32Similar
Q1 13:30
3RD & 4
OWN 32
+13
94.2%
Sam Howell pass complete to Josh Downs for 13 yds to the NCaro 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+31
94.1%
Sam Howell pass complete to Antoine Green for 31 yds to the GeoSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+2
94.1%
Ty Chandler run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 22Similar
Q1 11:45
2ND & 8
OPP 22
+22
94.1%
Sam Howell run for 22 yds for a TD, (Grayson Atkins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 3DOWNS
7 plays · 43 yds · 2:156% → 6%
Q1 11:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
94.0%
Cornelious Brown IV run for 6 yds to the GeoSt 31Similar
Q1 10:57
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+29
93.9%
Cornelius McCoy run for 29 yds to the NCaro 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:35
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
93.7%
Cornelious Brown IV pass complete to Ja'Cyais Credle for 5 yds to the NCaro 35Similar
Q1 10:00
2ND & 5
OPP 35
0
93.6%
Destin Coates run for no gain to the NCaro 35Similar
Q1 9:40
3RD & 5
OPP 35
+3
93.6%
Cornelious Brown IV run for 3 yds to the NCaro 32Similar
Q1 9:11
4TH & 2
OPP 32
0
93.6%
Cornelious Brown IV pass incomplete to Terrance Dixon GEORGIA ST Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Shamarious Gilmore) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 4TD
4 plays · 68 yds · 1:0594% → 94%
Q1 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
93.7%
Ty Chandler run for 5 yds to the NCaro 37Similar
Q1 8:34
2ND & 5
OWN 37
0
93.7%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Josh DownsSimilar
Q1 8:20
3RD & 5
OWN 37
+6
93.6%
Sam Howell run for 6 yds to the NCaro 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+57
94.4%
Sam Howell pass complete to Antoine Green for 57 yds for a TD, (Grayson Atkins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 5PUNT
8 plays · 16 yds · 3:026% → 6%
Q1 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
94.1%
Destin Coates run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 30Similar
Q1 6:55
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
94.0%
Cornelious Brown IV pass complete to Cornelius McCoy for no gain to the GeoSt 30Similar
Q1 6:30
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+12
94.0%
Cornelious Brown IV pass complete to Sam Pinckney for 12 yds to the GeoSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-5
94.0%
Destin Coates run for a loss of 5 yards to the GeoSt 37 Destin Coates fumbled, recovered by GeoStSimilar
Q1 5:10
2ND & 15
OWN 37
-6
94.0%
Cornelious Brown IV sacked by Myles Murphy for a loss of 6 yards to the GeoSt 31Similar
Q1 5:03
3RD & 21
OWN 31
+10
94.0%
Tucker Gregg run for 10 yds to the GeoSt 41Similar
Q1 4:33
4TH & 11
OWN 41
0
94.0%
TEAM punt for 26 yds, downed at the NCaro 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 6FUMBLE
1 play · -14 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q1 4:26
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-14
94.2%
Sam Howell run for a loss of 14 yards to the NCaro 19 Sam Howell fumbled, recovered by GeoSt Dontae WilsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 7FG
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:527% → 7%
Q1 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
93.5%
Cornelious Brown IV pass incomplete to Aubry PayneSimilar
Q1 3:55
2ND & 10
OPP 19
0
93.5%
Jamyest Williams run for no gain to the NCaro 19Similar
Q1 3:33
3RD & 10
OPP 19
0
93.7%
Cornelious Brown IV pass incomplete to Aubry PayneSimilar
Q1 3:28
4TH & 10
OPP 19
+37
93.1%
Noel Ruiz 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 8TD
11 plays · 67 yds · 4:1193% → 95%
Q1 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
93.1%
Sam Howell pass complete to Emery Simmons for 2 yds to the NCaro 35Similar
Q1 2:25
2ND & 8
OWN 35
0
93.0%
Ty Chandler run for no gain to the NCaro 35Similar
Q1 1:50
3RD & 8
OWN 35
+7
92.8%
Sam Howell pass complete to Kamari Morales for 7 yds to the NCaro 42Similar
Q1 1:25
4TH & 1
OWN 42
+1
92.7%
Ty Chandler run for 1 yd to the NCaro 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+17
93.0%
Sam Howell pass complete to Kamari Morales for 17 yds to the GeoSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:37
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
93.0%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Justin OlsonSimilar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+5
93.0%
Sam Howell pass complete to Josh Downs for 5 yds to the GeoSt 35Similar
Q2 14:45
3RD & 5
OPP 35
+5
92.8%
Sam Howell pass complete to Kamari Morales for 5 yds to the GeoSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:10
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
92.9%
British Brooks run for no gain to the GeoSt 30Similar
Q2 13:49
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+30
95.0%
Sam Howell pass complete to Emery Simmons for 30 yds for a TD, (Grayson Atkins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 9TD
19 plays · 75 yds · 7:165% → 10%
Q2 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
94.7%
Cornelious Brown IV pass complete to Ja'Cyais Credle for 8 yds to the GeoSt 33Similar
Q2 13:15
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+3
94.4%
Destin Coates run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
94.6%
Destin Coates run for 7 yds to the GeoSt 43Similar
Q2 12:20
2ND & 3
OWN 43
-1
94.4%
Destin Coates run for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSt 42Similar
Q2 11:50
3RD & 4
OWN 42
+8
94.6%
Cornelious Brown IV run for 8 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:15
1ST & 10
50
+2
94.4%
Destin Coates run for 2 yds to the NCaro 48Similar
Q2 10:40
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+8
94.4%
Tucker Gregg run for 8 yds to the NCaro 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:15
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
94.4%
Cornelious Brown IV run for 4 yds to the NCaro 36Similar
Q2 9:50
2ND & 6
OPP 36
+3
94.3%
Tucker Gregg run for 3 yds to the NCaro 33Similar
Q2 9:25
3RD & 3
OPP 33
+3
94.3%
Tucker Gregg run for 3 yds to the NCaro 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:01
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
94.2%
Cornelious Brown IV pass incomplete to Ja'Cyais CredleSimilar
Q2 8:35
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+6
94.2%
Cornelious Brown IV pass complete to Destin Coates for 6 yds to the NCaro 24Similar
Q2 8:00
3RD & 4
OPP 24
+3
94.1%
Destin Coates run for 3 yds to the NCaro 21Similar
Q2 7:20
4TH & 1
OPP 21
+6
93.6%
Tucker Gregg run for 6 yds to the NCaro 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+10
93.3%
Cornelious Brown IV pass complete to Jamari Thrash for 10 yds to the NCaro 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
93.2%
Cornelious Brown IV run for 1 yd to the NCaro 4Similar
Q2 6:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
90.1%
Cornelious Brown IV run for 4 yds for a TD, (Noel Ruiz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:0292% → 91%
Q2 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
91.7%
Ty Chandler run for 2 yds to the NCaro 31Similar
Q2 5:07
2ND & 8
OWN 31
-1
91.6%
Sam Howell sacked by Blake Carroll for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 30Similar
Q2 4:59
3RD & 9
OWN 30
0
91.2%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Josh DownsSimilar
Q2 4:53
4TH & 9
OWN 30
0
90.9%
Ben Kiernan punt for 53 yds, fair catch by Quavian White at the GeoSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 11DOWNS
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:278% → 8%
Q2 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+5
91.7%
Cornelious Brown IV run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 22Similar
Q2 4:00
2ND & 5
OWN 22
-8
91.5%
Cornelious Brown IV run for a loss of 8 yards to the GeoSt 14 Cornelious Brown IV fumbled, recovered by GeoSt Marcus CarrollSimilar
Q2 3:45
3RD & 13
OWN 14
-2
92.0%
Cornelious Brown IV pass complete to Marcus Carroll for a loss of 2 yards to the GeoSt 12Similar
Q2 3:03
4TH & 15
OWN 12
+9
92.1%
Aubry Payne run for no gain to the GeoSt 21 Jamil MuhammadSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 12FG
7 plays · 9 yds · 1:4992% → 93%
Q2 2:45
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+7
92.3%
Sam Howell run for 7 yds to the GeoSt 14Similar
Q2 2:30
2ND & 3
OPP 14
0
92.2%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Emery SimmonsSimilar
Q2 2:20
3RD & 3
OPP 14
+5
91.9%
GEORGIA ST Penalty, Delay of Game (5 Yards) to the GeoSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
92.3%
Caleb Hood run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 7Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
-5
92.6%
Sam Howell sacked by Dontae Wilson and Blake Carroll for a loss of 5 yards to the GeoSt 12Similar
Q2 0:59
3RD & GOAL
OPP 12
0
92.1%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Josh DownsSimilar
Q2 0:56
4TH & GOAL
OPP 12
+29
92.7%
Grayson Atkins 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 13PUNT
7 plays · 4 yds · 0:237% → 7%
Q2 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
93.1%
Destin Coates run for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSt 24Similar
Q2 0:26
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+4
93.1%
Jamyest Williams run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 28Similar
Q2 0:20
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+1
93.0%
Jamyest Williams run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 29Similar
Q2 0:12
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
92.9%
Michael Hayes punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Josh Downs at the NCaro 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 14END OF HALF
2 plays · 4 yds · 0:0394% → 94%
Q2 0:03
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
93.7%
Sam Howell pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+4
93.7%
Ty Chandler run for 4 yds to the NCaro 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 15MISSED FG
8 plays · 58 yds · 2:2494% → 94%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
93.8%
Ty Chandler run for 16 yds to the NCaro 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
94.1%
Ty Chandler run for 1 yd to the NCaro 42Similar
Q3 13:40
2ND & 9
OWN 42
+41
94.0%
Sam Howell pass complete to Emery Simmons for 41 yds to the GeoSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:10
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-1
94.2%
Ty Chandler run for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSt 18Similar
Q3 13:03
2ND & 11
OPP 18
0
94.1%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Garrett WalstonSimilar
Q3 12:28
3RD & 11
OPP 18
+1
93.9%
Sam Howell run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 17Similar
Q3 12:21
4TH & 10
OPP 17
+34
93.5%
Grayson Atkins 34 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 16FUMBLE
10 plays · 5 yds · 2:527% → 6%
Q3 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
93.4%
Tucker Gregg run for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSt 19Similar
Q3 11:46
2ND & 11
OWN 19
0
93.5%
Cornelious Brown IV pass incomplete to Ja'Cyais CredleSimilar
Q3 11:35
3RD & 11
OWN 19
+10
93.6%
Cornelious Brown IV pass complete to Cornelius McCoy for 10 yds to the GeoSt 29Similar
Q3 11:00
4TH & 1
OWN 29
+2
93.7%
Tucker Gregg run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:24
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-1
93.5%
Destin Coates run for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSt 30Similar
Q3 10:00
2ND & 11
OWN 30
-5
93.8%
Brown IV, Cornelious pass complete to Credle, Ja'Cyais for 20 yards to the 50 yardline, PENALTY GEORGIAST ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the GEORGIAST25, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:15
2ND & 16
OWN 25
0
93.9%
Cornelious Brown IV pass complete to Ja'Cyais Credle for no gain to the GeoSt 25Similar
Q3 9:11
3RD & 16
OWN 25
0
94.0%
Cornelious Brown IV pass incomplete to Cornelius McCoySimilar
Q3 9:03
4TH & 16
OWN 25
0
94.1%
Michael Hayes punt for 38 yds , Josh Downs returns for no gain to the NCaro 37 Josh Downs fumbled, recovered by NCaro Josh DownsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 17TD
10 plays · 63 yds · 3:0895% → 98%
Q3 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-3
94.7%
Caleb Hood run for a loss of 3 yards to the NCaro 34Similar
Q3 8:11
2ND & 13
OWN 34
+1
94.6%
Sam Howell run for 1 yd to the NCaro 35Similar
Q3 7:45
3RD & 12
OWN 35
+15
94.6%
Sam Howell pass complete to Ty Chandler for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:30
1ST & 10
50
+14
95.3%
Sam Howell run for 14 yds to the GeoSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+8
95.4%
Sam Howell pass complete to Josh Downs for 8 yds to the GeoSt 28Similar
Q3 6:45
2ND & 2
OPP 28
+12
95.5%
Sam Howell pass complete to Josh Downs for 12 yds to the GeoSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:10
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+11
95.5%
Sam Howell pass complete to Josh Downs for 11 yds to the GeoSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
95.5%
British Brooks run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 1Similar
Q3 5:32
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
98.4%
British Brooks run for 1 yd for a TD, (Grayson Atkins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:512% → 2%
Q3 5:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
98.0%
Cornelious Brown IV pass incomplete to Cornelius McCoySimilar
Q3 5:22
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
98.1%
Cornelious Brown IV pass incomplete to Cornelius McCoySimilar
Q3 4:45
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+4
98.3%
Cornelious Brown IV pass complete to Terrance Dixon for 4 yds to the GeoSt 29Similar
Q3 4:35
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
98.3%
Michael Hayes punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Josh Downs at the NCaro 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 19TD
6 plays · 76 yds · 1:2998% → 100%
Q3 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+29
97.9%
Sam Howell pass complete to Antoine Green for 29 yds to the GeoSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:45
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+7
98.6%
Ty Chandler run for 7 yds to the GeoSt 40Similar
Q3 3:31
2ND & 3
OPP 40
+24
98.6%
Sam Howell pass complete to Josh Downs for 9 yds to the GeoSt 31 for a 1ST down GEORGIA ST Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Tyler Gore) to the GeoSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+5
98.7%
British Brooks run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 11Similar
Q3 2:50
2ND & 5
OPP 11
+9
98.7%
Howell, Sam pass incomplete to Brown, Khafre, PENALTY GEORGIAST pass interference (Jones, Jaylon) 9 yards to the GEORGIAST2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN UNC.Similar
Q3 2:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.8%
Ty Chandler run for 2 yds for a TD, (Grayson Atkins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 20PUNT
7 plays · 10 yds · 1:010% → 0%
Q3 2:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
99.9%
GEORGIA ST Penalty, False Start (Aubry Payne) to the GeoSt 20Similar
Q3 2:41
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+15
99.9%
Brown IV, Cornelious pass incomplete to McCoy, Cornelius, PENALTY UNC pass interference (Hollins, Ladaeson DeAndre) 15 yards to the GEORGIAST35, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN GEORGIAST.Similar
Q3 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
99.9%
Jamyest Williams run for no gain to the GeoSt 35Similar
Q3 2:04
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
99.9%
Cornelious Brown IV pass incomplete to Cornelius McCoySimilar
Q3 1:58
3RD & 10
OWN 35
0
99.9%
Cornelious Brown IV pass incomplete to Jamari ThrashSimilar
Q3 1:45
4TH & 10
OWN 35
0
99.9%
Michael Hayes punt for 51 yds, downed at the NCaro 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 21TD
5 plays · 86 yds · 1:22100% → 100%
Q3 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+5
99.8%
Ty Chandler run for 5 yds to the NCaro 19Similar
Q3 0:50
2ND & 5
OWN 19
+11
99.8%
Sam Howell run for 11 yds to the NCaro 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:43
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-5
99.9%
Howell, Sam pass incomplete to Simmons, Emery, PENALTY UNC ineligible downfield on pass (Barnes, William) 5 yards to the UNC25, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 0:23
1ST & 15
OWN 25
+13
99.8%
Sam Howell pass complete to Kamari Morales for 13 yds to the NCaro 38Similar
Q3 0:08
2ND & 2
OWN 38
+62
99.9%
Sam Howell run for 62 yds for a TD, (Grayson Atkins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 22INT
7 plays · 25 yds · 1:310% → 0%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
99.9%
Marcus Carroll run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 30Similar
Q4 14:45
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+5
99.9%
Marcus Carroll run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
99.9%
Cornelious Brown IV pass complete to Jamari Thrash for 8 yds to the GeoSt 43Similar
Q4 13:55
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+7
99.9%
Cornelious Brown IV pass complete to Aubry Payne for 7 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:44
1ST & 10
50
0
99.9%
Cornelious Brown IV pass incomplete to Aubry PayneSimilar
Q4 13:29
2ND & 10
50
-17
99.9%
Cornelious Brown IV pass intercepted Power Echols return for 17 yds to the GeoSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 23TD
7 plays · 40 yds · 2:07100% → 100%
Q4 13:29
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-15
99.9%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Eugene Asante) to the NCaro 45Similar
Q4 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+8
99.9%
Ty Chandler run for 8 yds to the GeoSt 47Similar
Q4 12:40
2ND & 2
OPP 47
+10
99.9%
Sam Howell pass complete to Landon Stevens for 10 yds to the GeoSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:20
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
99.9%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Khafre BrownSimilar
Q4 12:15
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+22
99.9%
Sam Howell pass complete to Garrett Walston for 22 yds to the GeoSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+10
99.9%
Sam Howell pass complete to Josh Downs for 10 yds to the GeoSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
99.9%
Sam Howell pass complete to Josh Downs for 5 yds for a TD, (Grayson Atkins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 24TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 2:520% → 0%
Q4 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
100.0%
Marcus Carroll run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 28Similar
Q4 10:45
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+4
100.0%
Darren Grainger run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 32Similar
Q4 10:20
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+17
100.0%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Robert Lewis for 17 yds to the GeoSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:59
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
100.0%
Darren Grainger pass incomplete to Ja'Cyais CredleSimilar
Q4 9:35
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+5
100.0%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Terrance Dixon for 5 yds to the NCaro 46Similar
Q4 9:10
3RD & 5
OPP 46
+5
100.0%
Robert Lewis run for 5 yds to the NCaro 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:50
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
100.0%
Darren Grainger run for 3 yds to the NCaro 38Similar
Q4 8:19
2ND & 7
OPP 38
+36
100.0%
Darren Grainger run for 36 yds to the NCaro 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.9%
Marcus Carroll run for 2 yds for a TD, (Noel Ruiz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 25TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:52100% → 100%
Q4 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.9%
Josh Henderson run for 2 yds to the NCaro 27Similar
Q4 7:15
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+11
99.9%
Caleb Hood run for 11 yds to the NCaro 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
99.9%
Caleb Hood run for 4 yds to the NCaro 42Similar
Q4 5:45
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+1
99.9%
Jacolby Criswell run for 1 yd to the NCaro 43Similar
Q4 5:00
3RD & 5
OWN 43
+7
99.9%
Jacolby Criswell pass complete to John Copenhaver for 7 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:30
1ST & 10
50
+3
100.0%
Josh Henderson run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 47Similar
Q4 4:03
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+47
100.0%
Jacolby Criswell pass complete to Bryson Nesbit for 47 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Kim KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 26PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 1:400% → 0%
Q4 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+10
100.0%
Darren Grainger run for 10 yds to the GeoSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
100.0%
Marcus Carroll run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 26Similar
Q4 3:00
2ND & 8
OWN 26
0
100.0%
Darren Grainger pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:12
3RD & 8
OWN 26
+3
100.0%
Darren Grainger run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 29Similar
Q4 2:05
4TH & 5
OWN 29
0
100.0%
Michael Hayes punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Josh Downs at the NCaro 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 27PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:20100% → 100%
Q4 1:43
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
100.0%
Elijah Green run for 4 yds to the NCaro 38Similar
Q4 1:23
2ND & 6
OWN 38
+3
100.0%
Elijah Green run for 3 yds to the NCaro 41Similar
Q4 0:55
3RD & 3
OWN 41
+2
100.0%
Elijah Green run for 2 yds to the NCaro 43Similar
Q4 0:23
4TH & 1
OWN 43
0
100.0%
Cole Maynard punt for 46 yds, downed at the GeoSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 28END OF GAME
1 play · 2 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+2
100.0%
Marcus Carroll run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 6:19
Cornelious Brown IV run for 4 yds for a TD, (Noel Ruiz KICK)
-3.1
TD · Q3 5:32
British Brooks run for 1 yd for a TD, (Grayson Atkins KICK)
+2.9
TD · Q2 13:49
Sam Howell pass complete to Emery Simmons for 30 yds for a TD, (Grayson Atkins KICK)
+2.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com