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Win probability · UNLV
modelUNLV aheadHAW aheadconfidence bandkey playUNLV scoreHAW score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:36 · Cole McDonald run for a loss of 3 yards to the UNLV 16
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- KEY PLAY · Q2 7:09: Charles Williams run for 10 yds to the UNLV 13 for a 1ST down — UNLV win probability +8.4 pts (now 53%) (top driver: UNLV has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:22: Cole McDonald run for 1 yd for a TD (Ryan Meskell KICK) — HAW win probability +15.9 pts (now 60%) (top driver: HAW has the ball).
- TD · Q3 1:33: Kenyon Oblad pass intercepted for a TD Cortez Davis return for 43 yds for a TD (Ryan Meskell KICK) — HAW win probability +22.4 pts (now 72%) (top driver: UNLV has the ball).
- TD · Q4 11:31: Cole McDonald run for 2 yds for a TD (Ryan Meskell KICK) — HAW win probability +13.9 pts (now 94%) (top driver: HAW has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 6:41: Miles Reed run for 3 yds to the Hawa 6 — HAW win probability +9.2 pts (now 96%) (top driver: HAW has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
UNLV made the numbers' call on 6 of 8HAW made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
- Q1 15:00UNLV 4th & 4 at UNLV 25, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 34.7% before the snapGo for it34.8%−<0.147% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call34.8%average punt
- Q1 9:31UNLV 4th & 5 at UNLV 37, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 36.8% before the snapGo for it36.7%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call36.8%average punt
- Q1 6:15HAW 4th & 3 at HAW 34, tiedClose callPunted · 61.8% before the snapGo for it62.0%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call61.9%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 4:50UNLV 4th & 10 at UNLV 28, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 37.9% before the snapGo for it37.8%−0.428% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call38.2%average punt
- Q2 14:54UNLV 4th & 4 at HAW 25, up 7Close callKicked a field goal · 46.4% before the snapGo for it46.6%47% to convertField goalTheir call46.4%−0.366% to makePunt43.5%−3.2average punt
- Q2 14:54HAW 4th & 1 at HAW 45, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 54.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call55.0%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt53.9%−1.0average punt
- Q2 14:54HAW 4th & 2 at UNLV 14, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 55.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call55.1%56% to convertField goal54.6%−0.484% to makePunt51.2%−3.9average punt
- Q2 14:54HAW 4th & 3 at UNLV 3, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 55.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call55.5%44% to convertField goal54.8%−0.793% to makePunt51.1%−4.4average punt
- Q2 7:09UNLV 4th & 5 at UNLV 46, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.9% before the snapGo for it52.9%−0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call53.0%average punt
- Q3 10:30HAW 4th & 9 at UNLV 17, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 56.0% before the snapGo for it53.9%−1.529% to convertField goalTheir call55.3%80% to makePunt46.7%−8.6average punt
- Q3 8:16UNLV 4th & 8 at HAW 37, tiedClose callPunted · 49.8% before the snapGo for it50.2%35% to convertField goal49.7%−0.640% to makePuntTheir call49.4%−0.9average punt
- Q3 7:14HAW 4th & 1 at HAW 35, tiedNumbers favored go for it by 2.7 ptsPunted · 53.1% before the snapGo for it55.4%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call52.7%−2.7average punt
- Q3 1:33UNLV 4th & 12 at UNLV 23, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.8% before the snapGo for it25.8%−3.922% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call29.7%average punt
- Q4 11:31UNLV 4th & 2 at HAW 32, down 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call14.0%57% to convertField goal12.3%−1.751% to makePunt10.7%−3.2average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNLV made the numbers' call on 1 of 1HAW made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
- Q1 2:06UNLV Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call43.7%97% to makeGo for two43.7%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:22HAW Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call51.5%97% to makeGo for two51.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 1:33HAW Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call68.8%97% to makeGo for two68.6%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 11:31HAW Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call85.9%97% to makeGo for two85.5%−0.445% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartUNLVDrive 1PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0034% → 34%
Q1 15:00
4TH & 4
OWN 25
+6
33.9%
Hayes Hicken punt for 45 yds , Cedric Byrd II returns for 6 yds to the Hawa 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 2INT6 plays · 37 yds · 0:0066% → 66%
Q1 13:23
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+11
34.5%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Jared Smart for 11 yds to the Hawa 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:23
3RD & 4
OPP 47
+10
34.4%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Jason-Matthew Sharsh for 10 yds to the UNLV 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:23
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
34.3%
Chevan Cordeiro pass intercepted, touchback. Jericho Flowers return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 3PUNT7 plays · 17 yds · 0:0036% → 36%
Q1 9:31
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
36.2%
Kenyon Oblad pass complete to Darren Woods Jr. for no gain to the UNLV 20Similar
Q1 9:31
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+9
36.1%
Kenyon Oblad pass complete to Darren Woods Jr. for 9 yds to the UNLV 29Similar
Q1 9:31
4TH & 5
OWN 37
0
36.0%
Hayes Hicken punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Cedric Byrd II at the Hawa 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 4PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0063% → 63%
Q1 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
37.1%
Chevan Cordeiro pass incomplete to Cedric Byrd II, broken up by Javin WhiteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 5PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0038% → 37%
Q1 4:50
3RD & 10
OWN 28
0
37.4%
Kenyon Oblad pass incomplete to Darren Woods Jr., broken up by Rojesterman Farris IISimilar
Q1 4:50
4TH & 10
OWN 28
0
37.2%
Hayes Hicken punt for 45 yds , Cedric Byrd II returns for no gain to the Hawa 28 Cedric Byrd II fumbled, recovered by Hawa Rojesterman Farris IISimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 6FUMBLE3 plays · 26 yds · 0:0062% → 62%
Q1 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
38.0%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Cedric Byrd II for 5 yds to the Hawa 33Similar
Q1 3:50
3RD & 5
OWN 33
+14
38.1%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Jared Smart for 14 yds Jared Smart fumbled, forced by Evan Austrie, recovered by UNLV Javin White , return for 11 yds to the Hawa 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 7TD3 plays · 42 yds · 0:5140% → 45%
Q1 2:06
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+31
45.1%
Kenyon Oblad pass complete to Darren Woods Jr. for 31 yds for a TD (Daniel Gutierrez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 8INT3 plays · 0 yds · 0:0057% → 57%
UNLVDrive 9MISSED FG4 plays · 6 yds · 1:5345% → 46%
Q1 1:47
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-2
45.4%
Kenyon Oblad pass complete to Tyleek Collins for a loss of 2 yards to the Hawa 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 10DOWNS16 plays · 72 yds · 0:0055% → 56%
Q2 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
45.1%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Jared Smart for 11 yds to the Hawa 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
44.5%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Jason-Matthew Sharsh for 5 yds to the Hawa 41Similar
Q2 14:54
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+10
43.5%
Cole McDonald pass complete to JoJo Ward for 10 yds to the UNLV 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+15
43.5%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Cedric Byrd II for 15 yds to the UNLV 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:54
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
0
44.2%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Fred Holly III for no gain to the UNLV 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 11PUNT7 plays · 43 yds · 0:0053% → 52%
Q2 7:09
4TH & 5
OWN 46
+4
52.2%
Hayes Hicken punt for 48 yds , Cedric Byrd II returns for 4 yds to the Hawa 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 12TD12 plays · 90 yds · 3:3445% → 60%
Q2 3:56
2ND & 1
OWN 31
+16
52.7%
Cole McDonald run for 1 yd to the Hawa 32 for a 1ST down UNLV Penalty, personal foul (Rayshad Jackson) to the Hawa 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:56
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+20
52.2%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Cedric Byrd II for 20 yds to the UNLV 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:56
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+18
50.4%
Cole McDonald pass complete to JoJo Ward for 18 yds to the UNLV 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:56
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+11
50.0%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Cedric Byrd II for 11 yds to the UNLV 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 13END OF HALF2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0047% → 47%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 14MISSED FG11 plays · 50 yds · 4:2758% → 57%
Q3 14:57
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+20
41.8%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Jason-Matthew Sharsh for 5 yds to the UNLV 38 for a 1ST down UNLV Penalty, personal foul (Rayshad Jackson) to the UNLV 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:57
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+9
39.5%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Cedric Byrd II for 9 yds to the UNLV 38Similar
Q3 14:57
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+7
38.7%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Jared Smart for 7 yds to the UNLV 25Similar
Q3 14:57
2ND & 3
OPP 25
+7
38.4%
Cole McDonald pass complete to JoJo Ward for 7 yds to the UNLV 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:30
4TH & 9
OPP 17
+35
43.4%
Ryan Meskell 35 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Montrice Johns TEAM return for no gain to the UNLV 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 15PUNT10 plays · 43 yds · 2:1448% → 49%
HAWDrive 16PUNT8 plays · 34 yds · 0:0055% → 55%
Q3 7:14
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+13
45.5%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Jared Smart for 13 yds to the Hawa 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:14
2ND & 10
OWN 14
+12
45.6%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Jared Smart for 12 yds to the Hawa 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:14
3RD & 8
OWN 28
+7
46.1%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Jared Smart for 7 yds to the Hawa 35Similar
Q3 7:14
4TH & 1
OWN 35
+3
45.0%
Ben Scruton punt for 48 yds , Jacob Gasser returns for 3 yds to the UNLV 38 UNLV Penalty, illegal block (Bryce Jackson) to the UNLV 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 17INT TD3 plays · 18 yds · 1:2649% → 28%
Q3 1:33
2ND & 13
OWN 28
+43
27.8%
Kenyon Oblad pass intercepted for a TD Cortez Davis return for 43 yds for a TD (Ryan Meskell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 18PUNT5 plays · -2 yds · 0:0028% → 26%
HAWDrive 19TD9 plays · 58 yds · 3:3178% → 94%
UNLVDrive 20INT12 plays · 69 yds · 0:0011% → 14%
Q4 11:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
11.3%
HAWAII Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the UNLV 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:31
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+25
11.8%
Kenyon Oblad pass complete to Giovanni Fauolo Sr. for 25 yds to the Hawa 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:31
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+7
12.8%
Kenyon Oblad pass complete to Darren Woods Jr. for 7 yds to the Hawa 33Similar
Q4 11:31
4TH & 2
OPP 32
+2
13.2%
Kenyon Oblad pass complete to Darren Woods Jr. for 2 yds to the Hawa 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:31
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+18
13.8%
Kenyon Oblad pass complete to Giovanni Fauolo Sr. for 18 yds to the Hawa 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:31
3RD & 4
OPP 6
+2
13.6%
Kenyon Oblad pass intercepted Paul Scott return for 2 yds to the Hawa 4 UNLV Penalty, illegal procedure ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 21Uncategorized17 plays · 81 yds · 5:0596% → 99%
Q4 6:41
2ND & 7
OWN 6
-3
4.4%
MCDONALD, Cole pass complete to WARD, JoJo for 11 yards to the UH17 (JACKSON, Bryce), PENALTY UH ineligible downfield on pass 3 yards to the UH3, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:41
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+17
4.4%
Cole McDonald pass complete to JoJo Ward for 17 yds to the Hawa 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:41
2ND & 6
OWN 38
+14
4.0%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Jared Smart for 14 yds to the UNLV 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:20
2ND & 15
OWN 47
+11
2.0%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Jared Smart for 11 yds to the UNLV 42Similar
Q4 2:10
3RD & 4
OPP 42
-10
1.9%
SHARSH, Jason-M rush for 40 yards to the UNLV2 (WHITE, Javin), PENALTY UH holding (VAIPULU, Solo) 10 yards to the UH48, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 1:33
Kenyon Oblad pass intercepted for a TD Cortez Davis return for 43 yds for a TD (Ryan Meskell KICK)
-22.4
TD · Q2 0:22
Cole McDonald run for 1 yd for a TD (Ryan Meskell KICK)
-15.9
TD · Q4 11:31
Cole McDonald run for 2 yds for a TD (Ryan Meskell KICK)
-13.9