Hawai'i

Profile vs. FBS, 2016

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.1355th
  Defense+0.1724th
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense42.9%43rd
  Defense46.4%17th
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.2982nd
  Defense+1.2039th
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.1157th
  Defense+0.1913th
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.1646th
  Defense+0.1942nd
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense48.5%54th
  Defense50.3%27th
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense29.9%21st
  Defense38.0%9th
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense2.6917th
  Defense2.8956th
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense18.8%53rd
  Defense21.4%65th
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense17.8%25th
  Defense14.0%18th

Percentiles among the 128 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2016

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Hawai'i allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. L
   CAL
2. L
   MICH
3. W
   UTM
4. L
   ARIZ
5. W
   NEV
6. W
   SJSU
7. L
   UNLV
8. W
   AF
9. L
   UNM
10. L
    SDSU
11. L
    BOIS
12. W
    FRES
13. W
    MASS
14. W
    MTSU

Bars above the line: better than expected for Hawai'i.

Players, 2016

1. Dru BrownQB309 plays · +0.152 pts/play · 94th of 218 QBs
   0.88WAR0.33 to 1.45
2. Diocemy Saint JusteRB122 plays · +0.169 pts/play · 83rd of 347 RBs
   0.39WAR0.23 to 0.53
3. Rigoberto SanchezPK52 plays · +0.276 pts/play · 4th of 116 kickers
   0.27WAR0.20 to 0.33
4. Paul HarrisRB50 plays · +0.189 pts/play · 193rd of 347 RBs
   0.18WAR0.12 to 0.23
5. Marcus KempWR73 plays · +0.105 pts/play · 144th of 417 WRs
   0.14WAR0.05 to 0.24
6. Steven LakalakaRB56 plays · +0.134 pts/play · 221st of 347 RBs
   0.14WAR0.07 to 0.21
7. John UrsuaWR52 plays · +0.139 pts/play · 153rd of 417 WRs
   0.14WAR0.09 to 0.19
8. Ikaika WoolseyQB45 plays · +0.135 pts/play · 188th of 218 QBs
   0.11WAR0.05 to 0.17

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Hawai'i's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2016

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  385385105th of 128Roster talent: 385, 105th of 128 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  106106115th of 128Recruiting: 106, 115th of 128 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  101%101%4th of 128Returning production: 101%, 4th of 128 in FBS
• SP+ rating

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  −10.1−10.1103rd of 128SP+ rating: −10.1, 103rd of 128 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 128 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2016

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Hawai'i's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 2 clear-cut ones account for 0.05 of the 0.10 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. vs UNMQ3 2:27 4th & 1 at HAW 26, tiedPunted; the numbers favored going for it−3.0 pts
2. at FRESQ4 12:31 4th & 3 at HAW 49, down 3Punted; the numbers favored going for it−2.0 pts
3. vs UNLVQ3 2:15 4th & 4 at UNLV 7, down 3Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.9 pts
4. at FRESQ2 11:06 4th & 1 at HAW 33, tiedPunted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.9 pts
5. vs MASSQ3 7:44 4th & 3 at HAW 45, down 2Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.9 pts
6. vs UNMQ3 12:22 4th & 2 at HAW 42, tiedPunted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.9 pts
7. vs MASSQ4 15:00 4th & 7 at HAW 46, up 7Went for it; the numbers favored punting (close call)−0.6 pts
8. vs UNLVQ3 13:43 4th & 5 at UNLV 44, tiedPunted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.4 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2016

16th of 128 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Hawai'i's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. L

   CAL
2. L

   MICH
3. W

   UTM
4. L

   ARIZ
5. W

   NEV
6. W

   SJSU
7. L

   UNLV
8. W

   AF
9. L

   UNM
10. L

    SDSU
11. L

    BOIS
12. W

    FRES
13. W

    MASS
14. W

    MTSU

What moved it, 2016

Every game starts at Hawai'i's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard+0.58
• Possession & field position−0.07
• Clock+0.04
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff−0.11

Game by game

• CALL 31-51 at CAL9% → 0%Before kickoff −41 · On the field −9: Scoreboard −13
• MICHL 3-63 at MICH1% → 0%Before kickoff −49 · On the field −1: Scoreboard −2
• UTMW 41-36 vs UTM74% → 94%Before kickoff +24 · On the field +20: Scoreboard +27, Possession & field position −1
• ARIZL 28-47 at ARIZ7% → 1%Before kickoff −43 · On the field −7: Scoreboard −12
• NEVW 38-17 vs NEV41% → 99%Before kickoff −9 · On the field +58: Scoreboard +49, Clock +1
• SJSUW 34-17 at SJSU43% → 98%Before kickoff −7 · On the field +55: Scoreboard +55, Clock +3
• UNLVL 38-41 vs UNLV78% → 5%Before kickoff +28 · On the field −73: Scoreboard −53, Clock −3
• AFW 34-27 at AF14% → 1%Before kickoff −36 · On the field −14: Scoreboard −23, Timeouts +4
• UNML 21-28 vs UNM59% → 5%Before kickoff +9 · On the field −54: Scoreboard −52, Clock −3
• SDSUL 0-55 at SDSU12% → 0%Before kickoff −38 · On the field −12: Scoreboard −15
• BOISL 16-52 vs BOIS14% → 0%Before kickoff −36 · On the field −14: Scoreboard −20
• FRESW 14-13 at FRES59% → 74%Before kickoff +9 · On the field +16: Scoreboard +33, Clock +4
• MASSW 46-40 vs MASS81% → 95%Before kickoff +31 · On the field +15: Scoreboard +23, Timeouts +1
• MTSUW 52-35 at MTSU37% → 99%Before kickoff −13 · On the field +62: Scoreboard +60, Clock +4

Points of win probability, from Hawai'i's side.

Closest call

STAN 20-23 HAW (2025) - Hawai'i dropped to a 0.3% win probability before pulling it out.