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Win probability · MICH
modelMICH aheadHAW aheadconfidence bandkey playMICH scoreHAW score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 13:34 · Rigoberto Sanchez punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Jabrill Peppers at the Mich 29
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factor
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 7:29: Grant Perry 12 Yd pass from Wilton Speight (Kenny Allen Kick) — MICH win probability +0.1 pts (now 98%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
- TD · Q1 1:25: Jake Butt 19 Yd pass from Wilton Speight (Kenny Allen Kick) — MICH win probability +0.4 pts (now 98%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
- TD · Q2 11:21: Amara Darboh 5 Yd pass from Wilton Speight (Kenny Allen Kick) — MICH win probability +0.7 pts (now 99%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
- TD · Q2 10:36: Delano Hill 27 Yd Interception Return (Kenny Allen Kick) — MICH win probability +0.6 pts (now 99%) (top driver: HAW has the ball).
- TD · Q2 6:07: Chris Evans 18 Yd Run (Kenny Allen Kick) — MICH win probability +0.1 pts (now 100%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
HAW made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
- Q1 13:34HAW 4th & 11 at HAW 24, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 1.3% before the snapGo for it1.3%−0.125% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.4%average punt
- Q1 12:26HAW 4th & 17 at MICH 45, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 1.4% before the snapGo for it1.4%−0.115% to convertField goal1.4%−0.125% to makePuntTheir call1.5%average punt
- Q1 5:14HAW 4th & 10 at HAW 20, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.9% before the snapGo for it1.9%−0.127% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.0%average punt
- Q2 14:08HAW 4th & 23 at HAW 12, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.1% before the snapGo for it2.0%−0.36% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.2%average punt
- Q2 8:51HAW 4th & 6 at HAW 29, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.7% before the snapGo for it0.6%−0.139% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.7%average punt
- Q4 12:30HAW 4th & 8 at MICH 37, down 56Close callKicked a field goal · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%35% to convertField goalTheir call0.0%−<0.140% to makePunt0.0%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 3:21HAW 4th & 1 at MICH 40, down 60Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.0%70% to convertField goal-0.0%−<0.134% to makePunt-0.0%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 1:49HAW 4th & 13 at MICH 36, down 60Close callPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.121% to convertField goal0.0%42% to makePuntTheir call0.0%−<0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MICH made the numbers' call on 9 of 9
- Q1 7:29MICH Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.2%97% to makeGo for two98.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 1:25MICH Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.1%97% to makeGo for two98.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 11:21MICH Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.8%97% to makeGo for two98.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 10:36MICH Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.4%97% to makeGo for two99.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 6:07MICH Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.6%97% to makeGo for two99.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 13:44MICH Touchdown, up 41 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 10:51MICH Touchdown, up 48 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 0:18MICH Touchdown, up 55 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.1%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 7:15MICH Touchdown, up 59 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartHAWDrive 1PUNT5 plays · -1 yds · 1:011% → 1%
Q1 13:34
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
98.8%
Rigoberto Sanchez punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Jabrill Peppers at the Mich 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 2INT1 play · 0 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q1 13:27
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
98.8%
Wilton Speight pass intercepted Damien Packer return for no gain to the Mich 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 3PUNT5 plays · -7 yds · 0:551% → 1%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 4TD11 plays · 98 yds · 4:3299% → 98%
Q1 11:06
3RD & 7
OWN 5
+16
98.6%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Jehu Chesson for 16 yds to the Mich 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:27
3RD & 7
OWN 39
+31
98.4%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Amara Darboh for 31 yds to the Hawa 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:22
2ND & 9
OPP 29
+21
98.4%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Jehu Chesson for 21 yds to the Hawa 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 5PUNT6 plays · 0 yds · 2:012% → 2%
Q1 6:26
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+4
98.3%
Ikaika Woolsey pass complete to Dylan Collie for 4 yds to the Hawa 28Similar
Q1 5:34
3RD & 2
OWN 28
-8
98.2%
Ikaika Woolsey sacked by Ben Gedeon for a loss of 8 yards to the Hawa 20Similar
Q1 5:14
4TH & 10
OWN 20
+14
98.2%
Rigoberto Sanchez punt for 52 yds , Jabrill Peppers returns for 14 yds to the Mich 34 MICHIGAN Penalty, Illegal Block (10 Yards) to the Mich 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 6TD8 plays · 68 yds · 3:3298% → 98%
Q1 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+6
98.2%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Jehu Chesson for 6 yds to the Hawa 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 7PUNT5 plays · -13 yds · 1:472% → 2%
MICHDrive 8TD6 plays · 48 yds · 2:3998% → 99%
Q2 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+6
98.3%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Amara Darboh for 6 yds to the Hawa 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 9INT TD4 plays · 0 yds · 0:451% → 1%
HAWDrive 10PUNT6 plays · 4 yds · 1:351% → 1%
Q2 8:51
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
99.4%
Rigoberto Sanchez punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Mich 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 11TD8 plays · 66 yds · 2:3699% → 100%
Q2 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+7
99.5%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Khalid Hill for 7 yds to the Hawa 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 12END OF HALF18 plays · 52 yds · 5:390% → 0%
Q2 5:41
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
99.7%
Ikaika Woolsey pass complete to Dylan Collie for 3 yds to the Hawa 29Similar
Q2 5:26
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+5
99.7%
Ikaika Woolsey pass complete to Dylan Collie for 5 yds to the Hawa 34Similar
Q2 3:45
1ST & 25
OWN 27
+28
99.8%
Ikaika Woolsey pass complete to Marcus Kemp for 28 yds to the Mich 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:20
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+12
99.8%
Ikaika Woolsey pass complete to Marcus Kemp for 12 yds to the Mich 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:07
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+18
99.8%
Ikaika Woolsey pass complete to Dylan Collie for 18 yds to the Mich 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:16
1ST & 25
OPP 30
+18
99.8%
Ikaika Woolsey pass complete to Marcus Kemp for 18 yds to the Mich 12Similar
Q2 1:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-4
99.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the Mich 7 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Hawa Ikaika WoolseySimilar
Q2 0:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
-9
99.8%
Ikaika Woolsey sacked by Mike McCray for a loss of 9 yards to the Mich 16 Ikaika Woolsey fumbled, forced by Mike McCray, recovered by Hawa Jamal Mayo , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 0:14
3RD & GOAL
OPP 16
+8
99.8%
MICHIGAN Penalty, Personal Foul (8 Yards) to the Mich 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
-14
99.8%
Ikaika Woolsey sacked by Jabrill Peppers for a loss of 14 yards to the Mich 22 HAWAII Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Ikaika Woolsey) to the Mich 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 13TD4 plays · 68 yds · 0:59100% → 100%
HAWDrive 14INT TD7 plays · 21 yds · 2:140% → 0%
Q3 12:47
2ND & 9
OWN 27
+15
99.8%
MICHIGAN Penalty, Roughing Passer (15 Yards) to the Hawa 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 15DOWNS13 plays · 53 yds · 4:390% → 0%
MICHDrive 16TD10 plays · 75 yds · 4:54100% → 100%
HAWDrive 17FG8 plays · 38 yds · 2:350% → 0%
Q4 14:06
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+25
100.0%
Dru Brown pass complete to Marcus Kemp for 25 yds to the Mich 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 18TD11 plays · 72 yds · 4:46100% → 100%
Q4 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
100.0%
Shane Morris pass complete to Sean McKeon for 5 yds to the Mich 33Similar
Q4 10:33
2ND & 11
OWN 40
+7
100.0%
Shane Morris pass complete to Eddie McDoom for 7 yds to the Mich 47Similar
Q4 9:56
3RD & 4
OWN 47
+15
100.0%
Shane Morris pass complete to Michael Hirsch for 15 yds to the Hawa 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:02
2ND & 8
OPP 36
+18
100.0%
Shane Morris pass complete to Kekoa Crawford for 18 yds to the Hawa 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 19PUNT16 plays · 48 yds · 5:060% → 0%
Q4 6:27
2ND & 2
OWN 24
+12
100.0%
Dru Brown pass complete to John Ursua for 12 yds to the Hawa 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:21
3RD & 16
OPP 39
+3
100.0%
Dru Brown pass complete to Davasyia Hagger for 3 yds to the Mich 36Similar
Q4 1:49
4TH & 13
OPP 36
0
100.0%
Rigoberto Sanchez punt for 27 yds, fair catch by Chris Evans at the Mich 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 20END OF GAME3 plays · 18 yds · 1:09100% → 100%
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 11:21
Amara Darboh 5 Yd pass from Wilton Speight (Kenny Allen Kick)
+0.7
TD · Q2 10:36
Delano Hill 27 Yd Interception Return (Kenny Allen Kick)
+0.6
TD · Q1 1:25
Jake Butt 19 Yd pass from Wilton Speight (Kenny Allen Kick)
+0.4