Hawai'i

Profile vs. FBS, 2022

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.0213th
  Defense+0.236th
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense39.9%28th
  Defense46.0%15th
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.1927th
  Defense+1.2641st
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.1258th
  Defense+0.239th
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.036th
  Defense+0.3514th
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense48.2%55th
  Defense49.0%32nd
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense22.2%5th
  Defense39.1%4th
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense3.4192nd
  Defense3.515th
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense12.1%96th
  Defense12.4%9th
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense15.8%49th
  Defense12.4%6th

Percentiles among the 131 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2022

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Hawai'i allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. L
   VAN
2. L
   WKU
3. L
   MICH
4. W
   DUQ
5. L
   NMSU
6. L
   SDSU
7. W
   NEV
8. L
   CSU
9. L
   WYO
10. L
    FRES
11. L
    USU
12. W
    UNLV
13. L
    SJSU

Bars above the line: better than expected for Hawai'i.

Players, 2022

1. Brayden SchagerQB282 plays · +0.089 pts/play · 127th of 234 QBs
   0.47WAR−0.11 to 1.09
2. Dedrick ParsonRB142 plays · +0.151 pts/play · 57th of 384 RBs
   0.40WAR0.28 to 0.53
3. Zion BowensWR44 plays · +0.157 pts/play · 151st of 455 WRs
   0.13WAR0.06 to 0.21
4. Matthew ShipleyPK56 plays · +0.123 pts/play · 10th of 110 kickers
   0.13WAR0.06 to 0.20
5. Jonah PanokeWR19 plays · +0.142 pts/play · 331st of 455 WRs
   0.05WAR0.02 to 0.08
6. Caleb PhillipsTE30 plays · +0.049 pts/play · 161st of 214 TEs
   0.03WAR−0.03 to 0.08
7. Jordan MurrayTE9 plays · +0.103 pts/play · 187th of 214 TEs
   0.02WAR0.01 to 0.03

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Hawai'i's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2022

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  420420103rd of 129Roster talent: 420, 103rd of 129 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  107107122nd of 129Recruiting: 107, 122nd of 129 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  24%24%115th of 128Returning production: 24%, 115th of 128 in FBS
• SP+ rating

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  −24.7−24.7126th of 129SP+ rating: −24.7, 126th of 129 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 129 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2022

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Hawai'i's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 5 clear-cut ones account for 0.12 of the 0.17 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. vs WYOQ4 14:12 4th & 1 at HAW 37, tiedPunted; the numbers favored going for it−4.3 pts
2. vs NEVQ2 2:02 4th & 15 at HAW 23, up 8Went for it; the numbers favored punting−2.9 pts
3. vs WYOQ3 2:08 4th & 3 at WYO 3, down 3Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−2.4 pts
4. at SJSUQ4 2:25 4th & 8 at SJSU 8, down 13Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal−1.3 pts
5. at SDSUQ4 10:17 4th & 4 at HAW 26, down 6Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.1 pts
6. vs WYOQ2 5:29 4th & 5 at WYO 43, up 3Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.9 pts
7. vs WYOQ4 4:12 4th & 1 at WYO 30, down 14Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal (close call)−0.8 pts
8. vs UNLVQ4 12:17 4th & 4 at UNLV 13, up 5Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.8 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2022

60th of 131 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Hawai'i's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. L

   VAN
2. L

   WKU
3. L

   MICH
4. W

   DUQ
5. L

   NMSU
6. L

   SDSU
7. W

   NEV
8. L

   CSU
9. L

   WYO
10. L

    FRES
11. L

    USU
12. W

    UNLV
13. L

    SJSU

What moved it, 2022

Every game starts at Hawai'i's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard−0.69
• Possession & field position+0.01
• Clock−0.09
• Timeouts+0.08
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff+1.25

Game by game

• VANL 10-63 vs VAN20% → 0%Before kickoff −30 · On the field −20: Scoreboard −26, Clock −1
• WKUL 17-49 vs WKU14% → 0%Before kickoff −36 · On the field −14: Scoreboard −21, Clock −1
• MICHL 10-56 at MICH0% → 0%Before kickoff −50 · On the field 0: Scoreboard −1
• DUQW 24-14 vs DUQ69% → 100%Before kickoff +19 · On the field +31: Scoreboard +32, Timeouts +1
• NMSUL 26-45 at NMSU35% → 1%Before kickoff −15 · On the field −34: Scoreboard −36, Clock −2
• SDSUL 14-16 at SDSU6% → 13%Before kickoff −44 · On the field +7: Scoreboard −10, Timeouts −1
• NEVW 31-16 vs NEV33% → 99%Before kickoff −17 · On the field +65: Scoreboard +48, Timeouts +2
• CSUL 13-17 at CSU30% → 22%Before kickoff −20 · On the field −8: Scoreboard −14, Clock −1
• WYOL 20-27 vs WYO21% → 4%Before kickoff −29 · On the field −17: Scoreboard −31, Clock −2
• FRESL 13-55 at FRES3% → 0%Before kickoff −47 · On the field −3: Scoreboard −5
• USUL 34-41 vs USU19% → 4%Before kickoff −31 · On the field −15: Scoreboard −30, Clock −2
• UNLVW 31-25 vs UNLV21% → 97%Before kickoff −29 · On the field +76: Scoreboard +42, Timeouts +3
• SJSUL 14-27 at SJSU12% → 1%Before kickoff −38 · On the field −12: Scoreboard −18

Points of win probability, from Hawai'i's side.

Closest call

STAN 20-23 HAW (2025) - Hawai'i dropped to a 0.3% win probability before pulling it out.