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HAW

Hawai'i 13 at Colorado State 17

CSU
2022 · Week 8 · Oct 22, 2022 · Canvas Stadium
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Win probability · CSU
modelCSU aheadHAW aheadconfidence bandkey playCSU scoreHAW score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 1:28 · Matthew Shipley punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Tory Horton at the ColSt 37
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+23.0+11.50−11.5−23.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 29Pregame prior+15.1Home team on offense−1.1Garbage-time factor−0.1Score differential−0.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:15: Brayden Schager pass complete to Caleb Phillips for 1 yd for a TD, (Matthew Shipley KICK) — HAW win probability +8.8 pts (now 49%) (top driver: HAW has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q3 9:26: MILLEN, Clay pass to the right incomplete intended for HORTON, Tory thrown to the HAW0, clock 09:26. PENALTY HAW Offsides on KAHAHAWAI-WELCH, Jonah enforced half the distance from the goal, 1 yards from the HAW2 to the HAW1 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down). — HAW win probability +7.3 pts (now 60%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 9:23: Avery Morrow run for 1 yd for a TD, (Michael Boyle KICK) — CSU win probability +17.7 pts (now 57%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  4. TD · Q4 1:28: Avery Morrow run for 10 yds for a TD, (Michael Boyle KICK) — CSU win probability +47.3 pts (now 93%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 1:28: Brayden Schager pass complete to Dedrick Parson for 6 yds to the Hawa 31 — HAW win probability +12.8 pts (now 20%) (top driver: HAW has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 9HAW made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
  1. Q1 9:24HAW 4th & 6 at CSU 10, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 33.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.8%−<0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    33.8%
    88% to make
    Punt
    33.0%−0.8
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:31CSU 4th & 3 at HAW 3, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 65.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    65.2%
    44% to convert
    Field goal
    64.9%−0.3
    93% to make
    Punt
    63.3%−1.9
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:28HAW 4th & 9 at HAW 24, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.3%−0.6
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.9%
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:41CSU 4th & 2 at HAW 21, down 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 63.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    62.8%−0.4
    74% to make
    Punt
    59.7%−3.5
    average punt
  5. Q2 1:26CSU 4th & 8 at HAW 33, down 7
    Close callWent for it · 50.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    49.7%−0.3
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    50.0%
    49% to make
    Punt
    48.2%−1.8
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:00HAW 4th & 7 at CSU 7, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 55.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.8%−0.2
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    55.0%
    91% to make
    Punt
    47.2%−7.8
    average punt
  7. Q3 9:23CSU 4th & 1 at HAW 1, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 38.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    37.9%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    34.9%−3.1
    94% to make
    Punt
    26.6%−11.3
    average punt
  8. Q3 8:08HAW 4th & 8 at HAW 27, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.7%−2.2
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.9%
    average punt
  9. Q3 6:25CSU 4th & 1 at HAW 49, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 54.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    55.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    51.7%−3.6
    average punt
  10. Q3 2:28CSU 4th & 1 at HAW 10, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 53.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    53.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    49.1%−4.7
    88% to make
    Punt
    36.0%−17.7
    average punt
  11. Q4 14:52HAW 4th & 13 at HAW 17, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.7%−5.5
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.2%
    average punt
  12. Q4 13:19CSU 4th & 7 at CSU 44, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.6%−1.0
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.7%
    average punt
  13. Q4 11:12HAW 4th & 8 at HAW 49, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.4%−0.5
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.9%
    average punt
  14. Q4 9:41CSU 4th & 9 at CSU 9, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.6%−1.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.8%
    average punt
  15. Q4 8:44HAW 4th & 15 at HAW 48, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.4%−5.7
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.1%
    average punt
  16. Q4 3:24CSU 4th & 3 at HAW 33, down 3
    Close callWent for it · 40.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    37.3%−0.2
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    37.5%
    49% to make
    Punt
    27.3%−10.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2HAW made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q2 7:15HAW Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 9:23CSU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 1:28CSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.1%−1.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
HAWDrive 1FG
11 plays · 65 yds · 5:3631% → 32%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+24
69.5%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Dior Scott for 24 yds to the Hawa 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+9
69.5%
Dedrick Parson run for 9 yds to the ColSt 42Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 42
+3
69.5%
Brayden Schager run for 3 yds to the ColSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+9
69.5%
Dedrick Parson run for 9 yds to the ColSt 30Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 30
+5
69.5%
Dedrick Parson run for 5 yds to the ColSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+6
69.5%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Caleb Phillips for 6 yds to the ColSt 19Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 19
+5
69.5%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Greyson Morgan for 5 yds to the ColSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-1
69.5%
Dedrick Parson run for a loss of 1 yard to the ColSt 15Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 15
0
69.5%
Brayden Schager pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 11
OPP 15
+5
69.5%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Dedrick Parson for 5 yds to the ColSt 10Similar
Q1 9:24
4TH & 6
OPP 10
+27
68.2%
Matthew Shipley 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 2DOWNS
9 plays · 72 yds · 3:5368% → 67%
Q1 9:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
68.2%
Peter Montini run for 7 yds to the ColSt 32Similar
Q1 9:24
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+9
68.5%
Clay Millen pass complete to Tanner Arkin for 9 yds to the ColSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:24
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-10
68.6%
MILLEN, Clay pass up the middle complete for 3 yards to BROWN, Louis caught at the CSU43 and advanced to the CSU44 (HAUSMAN, Malik). PENALTY CSU Holding on GARDNER, Jacob enforced 10 yards from the CSU41 to the CSU31 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 9:24
1ST & 20
OWN 31
+67
68.2%
Avery Morrow run for 67 yds to the Hawa 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
69.0%
Avery Morrow run for 1 yd to the Hawa 1Similar
Q1 9:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-2
69.0%
Avery Morrow run for a loss of 2 yards to the Hawa 3Similar
Q1 5:40
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
67.5%
Clay Millen pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:31
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
0
66.9%
Clay Millen pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 3PUNT
9 plays · 21 yds · 4:0333% → 34%
Q1 5:31
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+2
67.3%
Dedrick Parson run for 2 yds to the Hawa 5Similar
Q1 5:31
2ND & 8
OWN 5
+3
67.4%
Dedrick Parson run for 3 yds to the Hawa 8Similar
Q1 5:31
3RD & 5
OWN 8
0
67.7%
Brayden Schager pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+1
66.6%
Dior Scott run for 1 yd to the Hawa 24Similar
Q1 4:03
2ND & 9
OWN 24
-19
66.7%
SCHAGER, Brayden pass to the left complete for 19 yards to BOWENS, Zion caught at the HAW43 and advanced to the HAW43 (GUZMAN, Brandon). PENALTY HAW Face mask on MANNING, Ilm enforced half the distance from the goal, 12 yards from the HAW24 to the HAW12 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 4:03
2ND & 21
OWN 12
-2
66.8%
Brayden Schager run for a loss of 2 yards to the Hawa 10Similar
Q1 4:03
3RD & 23
OWN 10
+14
67.1%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Dior Scott for 14 yds to the Hawa 24Similar
Q1 3:51
4TH & 5
OWN 8
+15
67.5%
SHIPLEY, Matthew punt 44 yards to the CSU48, HORTON, Tory return 8 yards to the HAW44 (KING, Devyn;SEMEATU, Sonny), clock 03:51. PENALTY CSU Personal Foul on WILLIAMS, Jordan enforced 15 yards from the HAW8 to the HAW23 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 1:28
4TH & 9
OWN 24
0
66.4%
Matthew Shipley punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Tory Horton at the ColSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 4FG
8 plays · 42 yds · 3:4766% → 67%
Q1 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+20
65.5%
Clay Millen pass complete to Tory Horton for 20 yds to the Hawa 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:28
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+8
66.6%
Clay Millen run for 8 yds to the Hawa 35Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 2
OPP 35
+6
66.8%
Clay Millen pass complete to Avery Morrow for 6 yds to the Hawa 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+1
66.8%
Avery Morrow run for 1 yd to the Hawa 28Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 28
+3
66.8%
Clay Millen pass complete to Louis Brown for 3 yds to the Hawa 25Similar
Q2 12:45
3RD & 6
OPP 25
+4
65.6%
Clay Millen pass complete to Louis Brown for 4 yds to the Hawa 21Similar
Q2 12:41
4TH & 2
OPP 21
+38
67.3%
Michael Boyle 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 5TD
11 plays · 76 yds · 5:1735% → 49%
Q2 12:32
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
65.4%
Tylan Hines run for 3 yds to the Hawa 27Similar
Q2 12:32
2ND & 7
OWN 27
+6
65.2%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Tamatoa Mokiao-Atimalala for 6 yds to the Hawa 33Similar
Q2 12:32
3RD & 1
OWN 33
+3
64.8%
Dedrick Parson run for 3 yds to the Hawa 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:32
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
64.8%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Tamatoa Mokiao-Atimalala for 8 yds to the Hawa 44Similar
Q2 12:32
2ND & 2
OWN 44
+18
63.9%
Tylan Hines run for 18 yds to the ColSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:32
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+18
63.5%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Tamatoa Mokiao-Atimalala for 18 yds to the ColSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:32
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+12
62.7%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Zion Bowens for 12 yds to the ColSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+6
59.7%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Caleb Phillips for 6 yds to the ColSt 2Similar
Q2 8:07
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
59.7%
Dedrick Parson run for 1 yd to the ColSt 1Similar
Q2 7:15
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
50.9%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Caleb Phillips for 1 yd for a TD, (Matthew Shipley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 6DOWNS
13 plays · 42 yds · 5:4954% → 52%
Q2 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
53.5%
Clay Millen pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:15
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
53.3%
Avery Morrow run for 4 yds to the ColSt 29Similar
Q2 7:15
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+8
53.2%
Clay Millen run for 8 yds to the ColSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
54.1%
Clay Millen run for 2 yds to the ColSt 39Similar
Q2 4:37
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+3
54.3%
Clay Millen pass complete to Justus Ross-Simmons for 3 yds to the ColSt 42Similar
Q2 4:37
3RD & 5
OWN 42
+11
53.8%
Clay Millen pass complete to Justus Ross-Simmons for 11 yds to the Hawa 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:37
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+12
55.5%
Clay Millen run for 12 yds to the Hawa 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:37
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
56.7%
Avery Morrow run for 1 yd to the Hawa 34Similar
Q2 2:20
2ND & 9
OPP 34
-1
57.0%
Avery Morrow run for a loss of 1 yard to the Hawa 35Similar
Q2 2:20
3RD & 10
OPP 35
+2
54.9%
Clay Millen run for 2 yds to the Hawa 33Similar
Q2 1:26
4TH & 8
OPP 33
0
52.1%
Clay Millen pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 7FG
11 plays · 60 yds · 1:2653% → 58%
Q2 1:26
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
46.7%
Brayden Schager pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:26
2ND & 10
OWN 33
0
47.2%
Brayden Schager pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:26
3RD & 10
OWN 33
+17
48.7%
Dedrick Parson run for 17 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:26
1ST & 10
50
+26
44.5%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Zion Bowens for 26 yds to the ColSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:43
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+7
45.7%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Dedrick Parson for 7 yds to the ColSt 17Similar
Q2 0:43
2ND & 3
OPP 17
+7
46.2%
Dedrick Parson run for 7 yds to the ColSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
45.7%
Brayden Schager pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
0
45.7%
Brayden Schager pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:43
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
46.6%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Dedrick Parson for 3 yds to the ColSt 7Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+23
41.9%
Matthew Shipley 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 8TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 5:3744% → 57%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
44.3%
Avery Morrow run for 4 yds to the ColSt 29Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+31
44.8%
Clay Millen pass complete to Justus Ross-Simmons for 31 yds to the Hawa 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+13
47.1%
Clay Millen pass complete to Tanner Arkin for 13 yds to the Hawa 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+14
48.4%
Avery Morrow run for 14 yds to the Hawa 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+2
48.4%
Avery Morrow run for 2 yds to the Hawa 11Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 11
+9
48.4%
Avery Morrow run for 9 yds to the Hawa 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
48.4%
Avery Morrow run for no gain to the Hawa 2Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
48.4%
Avery Morrow run for a loss of 1 yard to the Hawa 3Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
47.0%
Clay Millen run for 1 yd to the Hawa 2Similar
Q3 9:26
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
0
39.7%
MILLEN, Clay pass to the right incomplete intended for HORTON, Tory thrown to the HAW0, clock 09:26. PENALTY HAW Offsides on KAHAHAWAI-WELCH, Jonah enforced half the distance from the goal, 1 yards from the HAW2 to the HAW1 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 9:23
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
57.4%
Avery Morrow run for 1 yd for a TD, (Michael Boyle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:1547% → 45%
Q3 9:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
53.2%
SCHAGER, Brayden pass to the right complete for 17 yards to WALTHALL, Jalen caught at the HAW38 and advanced to the HAW42 (GUZMAN, Brandon;BLACKBURN, Henry). PENALTY HAW Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on HOPP, Austin enforced 5 yards from the HAW25 to the HAW20 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 9:23
1ST & 15
OWN 20
0
53.5%
Brayden Schager pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:23
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+7
53.8%
Dedrick Parson run for 7 yds to the Hawa 27Similar
Q3 9:23
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
54.4%
Brayden Schager pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:08
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
55.2%
Matthew Shipley punt for 31 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 10DOWNS
13 plays · 48 yds · 5:4058% → 50%
Q3 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-3
58.0%
Peter Montini run for a loss of 3 yards to the ColSt 39Similar
Q3 8:08
2ND & 13
OWN 39
+9
55.4%
Clay Millen pass complete to Tanner Arkin for 9 yds to the ColSt 48Similar
Q3 6:25
3RD & 4
OWN 48
+3
58.2%
Avery Morrow run for 3 yds to the Hawa 49Similar
Q3 6:25
4TH & 1
OPP 49
+19
57.6%
Clay Millen pass complete to Justus Ross-Simmons for 19 yds to the Hawa 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:25
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+4
61.9%
Avery Morrow run for 4 yds to the Hawa 26Similar
Q3 6:25
2ND & 6
OPP 26
-10
61.9%
MORROW, Avery rush to the right for a gain of 1 yard to the HAW25 (LEE, Leonard). PENALTY CSU Holding on ARKIN, Tanner enforced 10 yards from the HAW26 to the HAW36 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 6:25
2ND & 16
OPP 36
+17
57.4%
Avery Morrow run for 17 yds to the Hawa 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:25
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+8
61.9%
Clay Millen run for 8 yds to the Hawa 11Similar
Q3 6:25
2ND & 2
OPP 11
0
61.9%
Jaylen Thomas run for no gain to the Hawa 11Similar
Q3 6:25
3RD & 2
OPP 11
+1
59.8%
Avery Morrow run for 1 yd to the Hawa 10Similar
Q3 2:28
4TH & 1
OPP 10
0
56.7%
Avery Morrow run for no gain to the Hawa 10Similar
Q3 2:28
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+10
49.9%
PARSON, Dedrick rush to the left for a loss of 2 yards to the HAW8 (WILSON, Chase). PENALTY CSU Holding on TUIOTI, Teivis enforced 10 yards from the HAW10 to the HAW20 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 2:3650% → 48%
Q3 2:28
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
49.6%
HAW fumbled snap, QB Keeper SCHAGER, Brayden rush up the middle for a loss of 5 yards, SCHAGER, Brayden fumbled at HAW15 , recovered by HAW SCHAGER, Brayden at the HAW15, returned 0 yards to the HAW15, End of Play. PENALTY Before the snap, HAW False Start enforced 5 yards from the HAW15 to the HAW10, from the the spot of the ball when the foul occurred, runner is credited with -5 yards on the play. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 2:28
2ND & 15
OWN 15
0
50.1%
Dedrick Parson run for no gain to the Hawa 15Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 15
OWN 15
+2
50.3%
Dedrick Parson run for 2 yds to the Hawa 17Similar
Q4 14:52
4TH & 13
OWN 17
0
51.7%
Matthew Shipley punt for 42 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:3356% → 51%
Q4 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
55.8%
Avery Morrow run for 2 yds to the ColSt 43Similar
Q4 14:52
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+1
55.7%
Avery Morrow run for 1 yd to the ColSt 44Similar
Q4 14:52
3RD & 7
OWN 44
0
54.5%
Clay Millen pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:19
4TH & 7
OWN 44
0
51.0%
Paddy Turner punt for 27 yds , returns for no gain to the Hawa 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 20 yds · 2:0753% → 56%
Q4 13:19
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+18
47.0%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Jalen Walthall for 18 yds to the Hawa 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:19
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
43.7%
Dedrick Parson run for 4 yds to the ColSt 49Similar
Q4 13:19
2ND & 6
OPP 49
-2
43.2%
Dedrick Parson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Hawa 49Similar
Q4 13:19
3RD & 8
OWN 49
0
44.3%
Brayden Schager pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:12
4TH & 8
OWN 49
0
44.0%
Matthew Shipley punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Tory Horton at the ColSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:3147% → 42%
Q4 11:12
1ST & 10
OWN 8
-3
47.1%
Avery Morrow run for a loss of 3 yards to the ColSt 5Similar
Q4 11:12
2ND & 13
OWN 5
+4
46.8%
Clay Millen pass complete to Avery Morrow for 4 yds to the ColSt 9Similar
Q4 11:12
3RD & 9
OWN 9
0
45.2%
Clay Millen pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:41
4TH & 9
OWN 9
0
41.9%
Paddy Turner punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Dior Scott at the ColSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 0:5765% → 60%
Q4 9:41
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-5
35.0%
Brayden Schager run for a loss of 5 yards to the Hawa 48 Brayden Schager fumbled, recovered by Hawa Tylan HinesSimilar
Q4 9:41
2ND & 15
OWN 48
0
37.6%
Brayden Schager pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:41
3RD & 15
OWN 48
0
38.9%
Brayden Schager pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:44
4TH & 15
OWN 48
0
40.4%
Matthew Shipley punt for 52 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 16TD
16 plays · 80 yds · 7:1646% → 93%
Q4 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+14
45.7%
Clay Millen pass complete to Tory Horton for 14 yds to the ColSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
46.6%
Clay Millen pass complete to Avery Morrow for 1 yd to the ColSt 35Similar
Q4 8:44
2ND & 9
OWN 35
+9
46.5%
Clay Millen run for 9 yds to the ColSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:29
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
43.7%
Avery Morrow run for 4 yds to the ColSt 48Similar
Q4 6:29
2ND & 6
OWN 48
0
44.7%
Clay Millen pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:29
3RD & 6
OWN 48
+12
42.9%
Clay Millen pass complete to Louis Brown for 12 yds to the Hawa 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:29
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
45.6%
Avery Morrow run for 4 yds to the Hawa 36Similar
Q4 6:29
2ND & 6
OPP 36
-5
45.7%
COLORADO ST Penalty, False Start (Jacob Gardner) to the Hawa 41Similar
Q4 6:29
2ND & 11
OPP 41
+3
45.0%
Clay Millen run for 3 yds to the Hawa 38Similar
Q4 3:24
3RD & 8
OPP 38
+5
42.0%
Clay Millen pass complete to Louis Brown for 5 yds to the Hawa 33Similar
Q4 3:24
4TH & 3
OPP 33
+13
39.1%
Clay Millen pass complete to Tory Horton for 13 yds to the Hawa 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:24
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+4
45.8%
Avery Morrow run for 4 yds to the Hawa 16Similar
Q4 3:24
2ND & 6
OPP 16
+6
45.8%
Louis Brown run for 6 yds to the Hawa 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
93.2%
Avery Morrow run for 10 yds for a TD, (Michael Boyle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 17INT
4 plays · 14 yds · 0:4920% → 22%
Q4 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
80.4%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Dedrick Parson for 6 yds to the Hawa 31Similar
Q4 1:28
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+3
77.2%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Dedrick Parson for 3 yds to the Hawa 34Similar
Q4 1:28
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+5
77.4%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Dedrick Parson for 5 yds to the Hawa 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
77.7%
Brayden Schager pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:28
Avery Morrow run for 10 yds for a TD, (Michael Boyle KICK)
+47.3
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+22.3
TD · Q3 9:23
Avery Morrow run for 1 yd for a TD, (Michael Boyle KICK)
+17.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com