2022 · Week 10 · Nov 5, 2022 · Valley Children's Stadium
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Win probability · FRES
modelFRES aheadHAW aheadconfidence bandkey playFRES scoreHAW score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 12:58 · Brayden Schager pass incomplete
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factor
This game in five plays
- FG · Q1 6:54: Abraham Montano 31 yd FG GOOD — HAW win probability +0.6 pts (now 4%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
- TD · Q1 4:55: Cam Lockridge 31 Yd Interception Return (Abraham Montano Kick) — FRES win probability +0.3 pts (now 96%) (top driver: HAW has the ball).
- TD · Q1 1:59: Jordan Mims run for 22 yds for a TD, (Abraham Montano KICK) — FRES win probability +0.9 pts (now 97%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
- TD · Q2 7:16: Jake Haener pass complete to Jalen Moreno-Cropper for 7 yds for a TD, (Dylan Lynch KICK) — FRES win probability +1.2 pts (now 98%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:41: Jake Haener pass complete to Erik Brooks for 16 yds for a TD, (Dylan Lynch KICK) — FRES win probability +0.8 pts (now 100%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
FRES made the numbers' call on 2 of 4HAW made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
- Q1 10:46HAW 4th & 9 at FRES 31, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 5.6% before the snapGo for it5.6%−<0.132% to convertField goalTheir call5.6%54% to makePunt5.5%−0.1average punt
- Q1 6:54FRES 4th & 8 at HAW 13, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 93.5% before the snapGo for it93.4%−0.130% to convertField goalTheir call93.5%85% to makePunt93.0%−0.4average punt
- Q1 4:13HAW 4th & 6 at HAW 29, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.2% before the snapGo for it6.2%−<0.139% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call6.2%average punt
- Q2 12:58HAW 4th & 5 at FRES 29, down 17Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call4.9%41% to convertField goal4.9%−<0.158% to makePunt3.5%−1.4average punt
- Q2 9:10FRES 4th & 5 at HAW 34, up 17Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 95.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call95.6%42% to convertField goal95.4%−0.247% to makePunt95.3%−0.4average punt
- Q2 5:08HAW 4th & 11 at HAW 18, down 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.9% before the snapGo for it2.5%−0.425% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.9%average punt
- Q3 9:12FRES 4th & 2 at HAW 7, up 31Close callKicked a field goal · 99.6% before the snapGo for it99.6%53% to convertField goalTheir call99.5%−0.191% to makePunt99.1%−0.6average punt
- Q3 6:49HAW 4th & 1 at FRES 29, down 34Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.4%71% to convertField goal0.2%−0.258% to makePunt-0.1%−0.5average punt
- Q3 3:09HAW 4th & 8 at FRES 28, down 41Close callWent for it · 0.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.2%−<0.134% to convertField goal0.2%60% to makePunt-0.1%−0.3average punt
- Q4 13:12HAW 4th & 10 at HAW 40, down 48Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.0%−0.129% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 9:33HAW 4th & 7 at FRES 43, down 55Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.0%37% to convertField goal-0.0%−<0.128% to makePunt0.0%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 2:05FRES 4th & 2 at FRES 33, up 48Close callPunted · 100.0% before the snapGo for it100.0%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%−<0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FRES made the numbers' call on 7 of 7HAW made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 4:55FRES Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call93.9%97% to makeGo for two93.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 1:59FRES Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call94.4%97% to makeGo for two94.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 7:16FRES Touchdown, up 23 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.1%97% to makeGo for two97.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:41FRES Touchdown, up 30 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.4%97% to makeGo for two99.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 6:22FRES Touchdown, up 40 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 14:18FRES Touchdown, up 47 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 9:33FRES Touchdown, up 54 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 3:46HAW Touchdown, down 49 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call0.1%97% to makeGo for two0.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 0:35HAW Touchdown, down 42 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call0.0%97% to makeGo for two0.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartHAWDrive 1MISSED FG12 plays · 44 yds · 4:143% → 4%
Q1 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+11
96.9%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Zion Bowens for 11 yds to the Hawa 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
96.9%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Dedrick Parson for 2 yds to the Hawa 49Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 48
+6
96.9%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Dedrick Parson for 6 yds to the FrsSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
96.9%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Caleb Phillips for 2 yds to the FrsSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 2FG10 plays · 56 yds · 3:5296% → 96%
Q1 10:46
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+14
96.2%
Jake Haener pass complete to Zane Pope for 14 yds to the FrsSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:46
2ND & 3
OPP 46
+5
96.3%
Jake Haener pass complete to Nikko Remigio for 5 yds to the Hawa 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:46
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
96.3%
Jake Haener pass complete to Josh Kelly for 2 yds to the Hawa 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 3INT TD6 plays · 12 yds · 1:504% → 4%
Q1 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+8
95.7%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Zion Bowens for 8 yds to the Hawa 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 4PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 0:424% → 4%
Q1 4:13
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
95.9%
Matthew Shipley punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Zane Pope at the FrsSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 5TD6 plays · 81 yds · 2:1496% → 97%
HAWDrive 6DOWNS10 plays · 46 yds · 4:014% → 4%
Q1 1:59
2ND & 3
OWN 32
-7
96.4%
Brayden Schager sacked by Carlton Johnson for a loss of 7 yards to the Hawa 25Similar
Q1 1:59
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+15
96.5%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Caleb Phillips for 15 yds to the Hawa 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 33
+4
96.4%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Tylan Hines for 4 yds to the FrsSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 7TD16 plays · 71 yds · 5:4297% → 98%
Q2 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+6
96.9%
Jake Haener pass complete to Jalen Moreno-Cropper for 6 yds to the FrsSt 35Similar
Q2 12:58
2ND & 4
OWN 35
0
96.9%
Jake Haener pass complete to Nikko Remigio for no gain to the FrsSt 35Similar
Q2 12:58
3RD & 4
OWN 35
+14
96.8%
Jake Haener pass complete to Jalen Moreno-Cropper for 14 yds to the FrsSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:12
2ND & 8
OPP 49
+7
97.1%
Jake Haener pass complete to Jalen Moreno-Cropper for 7 yds to the Hawa 42Similar
Q2 11:12
3RD & 1
OPP 42
+3
97.1%
Jake Haener pass complete to Josh Kelly for 3 yds to the Hawa 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:10
4TH & 5
OPP 34
+7
97.0%
Jake Haener pass complete to Zane Pope for 7 yds to the Hawa 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:10
3RD & 6
OPP 23
+16
97.2%
Jake Haener pass complete to Erik Brooks for 16 yds to the Hawa 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
98.3%
Jake Haener pass complete to Jalen Moreno-Cropper for 7 yds for a TD, (Dylan Lynch KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 8PUNT5 plays · 12 yds · 2:022% → 2%
FRESDrive 9TD12 plays · 64 yds · 4:2798% → 100%
Q2 5:08
2ND & 11
OWN 35
+10
98.4%
Jake Haener pass complete to Raymond Pauwels for 10 yds to the FrsSt 45Similar
Q2 3:47
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-3
98.4%
Jake Haener sacked by Ezra Evaimalo for a loss of 3 yards to the Hawa 37Similar
Q2 3:47
2ND & 13
OPP 37
+7
98.4%
Jake Haener pass complete to Raymond Pauwels for 7 yds to the Hawa 30Similar
Q2 3:47
3RD & 6
OPP 30
+8
98.4%
Jake Haener pass complete to Erik Brooks for 8 yds to the Hawa 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:41
2ND & 4
OPP 16
+16
99.5%
Jake Haener pass complete to Erik Brooks for 16 yds for a TD, (Dylan Lynch KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 10END OF HALF1 play · -1 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
99.6%
[NH] Kneel down by SCHAGER, Brayden at HAW19 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 11FG11 plays · 68 yds · 5:48100% → 100%
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+24
99.5%
Jake Haener pass complete to Josh Kelly for 24 yds to the Hawa 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 12DOWNS7 plays · 46 yds · 2:230% → 0%
FRESDrive 13TD2 plays · 71 yds · 0:27100% → 100%
HAWDrive 14DOWNS10 plays · 53 yds · 3:130% → 0%
FRESDrive 15TD8 plays · 78 yds · 3:51100% → 100%
HAWDrive 16PUNT5 plays · 17 yds · 1:000% → 0%
FRESDrive 17TD6 plays · 76 yds · 3:39100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 18TD13 plays · 75 yds · 5:470% → 0%
Q4 9:33
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
100.0%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Alex Perry for 4 yds to the Hawa 42Similar
Q4 9:33
3RD & 6
OWN 42
+12
100.0%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Tamatoa Mokiao-Atimalala for 12 yds to the FrsSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:33
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
100.0%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Nicholas Cenacle for 2 yds to the FrsSt 44Similar
Q4 9:33
2ND & 5
OPP 14
+11
100.0%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Tamatoa Mokiao-Atimalala for 11 yds to the FrsSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.9%
Nasjzae Bryant-Lelei run for 1 yd for a TD, (Matthew Shipley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 19PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 1:41100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 20TD9 plays · 59 yds · 1:300% → 0%
Q4 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+15
100.0%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Tylan Hines for 15 yds to the FrsSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:05
3RD & 15
OPP 49
+8
100.0%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Nasjzae Bryant-Lelei for 8 yds to the FrsSt 41Similar
Q4 0:57
4TH & 7
OPP 41
+15
100.0%
SCHAGER, Brayden pass to the right incomplete intended for PERRY, Alex thrown to the FST15, clock 00:57. PENALTY FST Personal Foul on FOX, Andres enforced 15 yards from the FST41 to the FST26 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 0:55
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+22
100.0%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Tylan Hines for 22 yds to the FrsSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
100.0%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Tamatoa Mokiao-Atimalala for 4 yds for a TD, (Matthew Shipley PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 21END OF 4TH QUARTER1 play · -1 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
100.0%
[NHSG] Kneel down by FIFE, Logan at FST24 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 7:16
Jake Haener pass complete to Jalen Moreno-Cropper for 7 yds for a TD, (Dylan Lynch KICK)
+1.2
TD · Q1 1:59
Jordan Mims run for 22 yds for a TD, (Abraham Montano KICK)
+0.9
TD · Q2 0:41
Jake Haener pass complete to Erik Brooks for 16 yds for a TD, (Dylan Lynch KICK)
+0.8