Hawai'i

Profile vs. FBS, 2021

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.1131st
  Defense+0.1259th
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense42.2%40th
  Defense43.1%41st
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.3164th
  Defense+1.2940th
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.1458th
  Defense+0.0568th
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.1626th
  Defense+0.2152nd
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense46.9%36th
  Defense45.8%69th
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense32.7%66th
  Defense37.3%9th
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense3.1457th
  Defense2.8767th
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense18.7%27th
  Defense18.7%65th
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense22.0%4th
  Defense16.8%53rd

Percentiles among the 130 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2021

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Hawai'i allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. L
   UCLA
2. W
   PRST
3. L
   ORST
4. L
   SJSU
5. W
   NMSU
6. W
   FRES
7. L
   NEV
8. W
   NMSU
9. L
   USU
10. L
    SDSU
11. L
    UNLV
12. W
    CSU
13. W
    WYO

Bars above the line: better than expected for Hawai'i.

Players, 2021

1. Chevan CordeiroQB319 plays · +0.211 pts/play · 80th of 219 QBs
   1.26WAR0.71 to 1.82
2. Calvin Turner Jr.RB138 plays · +0.170 pts/play · 84th of 387 RBs
   0.44WAR0.30 to 0.56
3. Dedrick ParsonRB115 plays · +0.187 pts/play · 100th of 387 RBs
   0.40WAR0.33 to 0.48
4. Brayden SchagerQB90 plays · +0.211 pts/play · 154th of 219 QBs
   0.36WAR0.17 to 0.56
5. Dae Dae HunterRB85 plays · +0.193 pts/play · 147th of 387 RBs
   0.31WAR0.24 to 0.37
6. Matthew ShipleyPK59 plays · +0.130 pts/play · 7th of 128 kickers
   0.14WAR0.07 to 0.23
7. Nick MardnerWR55 plays · +0.140 pts/play · 147th of 474 WRs
   0.14WAR0.08 to 0.21
8. Jared SmartWR22 plays · +0.154 pts/play · 342nd of 474 WRs
   0.06WAR0.04 to 0.09

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Hawai'i's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2021

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  397397105th of 130Roster talent: 397, 105th of 130 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  121121121st of 130Recruiting: 121, 121st of 130 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  76%76%62nd of 128Returning production: 76%, 62nd of 128 in FBS
• SP+ rating

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  −2.3−2.386th of 130SP+ rating: −2.3, 86th of 130 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 130 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2021

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Hawai'i's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 4 clear-cut ones account for 0.07 of the 0.15 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. vs SDSUQ4 3:00 4th & 5 at SDSU 5, down 10Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−2.5 pts
2. vs CSUQ4 13:48 4th & 1 at HAW 28, up 12Punted; the numbers favored going for it−2.4 pts
3. at NMSUQ3 12:07 4th & 4 at NMSU 43, up 1Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.3 pts
4. vs SJSUQ2 5:26 4th & 1 at HAW 34, tiedPunted; the numbers favored going for it−1.3 pts
5. vs CSUQ4 9:09 4th & 5 at CSU 40, up 12Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.9 pts
6. vs SJSUQ3 8:05 4th & 4 at SJSU 8, down 7Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.8 pts
7. at UCLAQ2 1:49 4th & 11 at UCLA 11, down 28Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal (close call)−0.7 pts
8. vs CSUQ3 7:17 4th & 2 at CSU 24, up 26Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.6 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2021

39th of 130 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Hawai'i's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. L

   UCLA
2. W

   PRST
3. L

   ORST
4. L

   SJSU
5. W

   NMSU
6. W

   FRES
7. L

   NEV
8. W

   NMSU
9. L

   USU
10. L

    SDSU
11. L

    UNLV
12. W

    CSU
13. W

    WYO

What moved it, 2021

Every game starts at Hawai'i's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard+0.18
• Possession & field position+0.03
• Clock−0.03
• Timeouts+0.03
• Other+0.01
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff+0.88

Game by game

• UCLAL 10-44 at UCLA10% → 0%Before kickoff −40 · On the field −10: Scoreboard −13
• PRSTW 49-35 vs PRST95% → 98%Before kickoff +45 · On the field +3: Scoreboard +10
• ORSTL 27-45 at ORST21% → 2%Before kickoff −29 · On the field −19: Scoreboard −24, Possession & field position −1
• SJSUL 13-17 vs SJSU26% → 23%Before kickoff −24 · On the field −3: Scoreboard −32, Clock −3
• NMSUW 41-21 at NMSU79% → 95%Before kickoff +29 · On the field +16: Scoreboard +31, Clock +2
• FRESW 27-24 vs FRES18% → 94%Before kickoff −32 · On the field +76: Scoreboard +41, Timeouts +3
• NEVL 17-34 at NEV14% → 0%Before kickoff −36 · On the field −13: Scoreboard −17, Timeouts −1
• NMSUW 48-34 vs NMSU82% → 99%Before kickoff +32 · On the field +18: Scoreboard +23
• USUL 31-51 at USU38% → 2%Before kickoff −12 · On the field −36: Scoreboard −33, Possession & field position −2
• SDSUL 10-17 vs SDSU27% → 14%Before kickoff −23 · On the field −12: Scoreboard −34, Timeouts −1
• UNLVL 13-27 at UNLV56% → 5%Before kickoff +6 · On the field −51: Scoreboard −39, Clock −2
• CSUW 50-45 vs CSU39% → 96%Before kickoff −11 · On the field +57: Scoreboard +40, Timeouts +2
• WYOW 38-14 at WYO16% → 99%Before kickoff −34 · On the field +83: Scoreboard +66, Clock +2

Points of win probability, from Hawai'i's side.

Closest call

STAN 20-23 HAW (2025) - Hawai'i dropped to a 0.3% win probability before pulling it out.