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FRES

Fresno State 24 at Hawai'i 27

HAW
2021 · Week 5 · Oct 2, 2021 · Aloha Stadium
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Win probability · HAW
modelHAW aheadFRES aheadconfidence bandkey playHAW scoreFRES score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDFGTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 4:39 · Matthew Shipley punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Ronnie Rivers at the FrsSt 32
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+32.0+16.00−16.0−32.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 81Pregame prior−21.0Home team on offense−3.2Score differential−0.8Garbage-time factor−0.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 9:22: Jake Haener pass complete to Jalen Cropper for 35 yds for a TD, (Cesar Silva KICK) — FRES win probability +10.5 pts (now 83%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  2. FG · Q3 4:29: Cesar Silva 48 yd FG GOOD — FRES win probability +5.5 pts (now 90%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 12:06: Brayden Schager pass complete to Caleb Phillips for 26 yds for a TD, (Matthew Shipley KICK) — HAW win probability +15.7 pts (now 30%) (top driver: HAW has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 7:05: Brayden Schager pass complete to Calvin Turner Jr. for 18 yds for a TD, (Matthew Shipley KICK) — HAW win probability +31.4 pts (now 62%) (top driver: HAW has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 3:33: Matthew Shipley 33 yd FG GOOD — HAW win probability +20.0 pts (now 81%) (top driver: HAW has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
HAW made the numbers' call on 7 of 8FRES made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 10:11FRES 4th & 21 at midfield, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.2%−0.2
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:06HAW 4th & 13 at FRES 17, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 33.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.0%−0.6
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    33.6%
    80% to make
    Punt
    31.6%−2.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:13HAW 4th & 11 at HAW 24, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.0%−0.7
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.7%
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:33HAW 4th & 5 at HAW 6, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.4%−0.5
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.0%
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:14FRES 4th & 2 at HAW 44, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 64.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    65.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    63.8%−1.3
    27% to make
    Punt
    64.4%−0.7
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:49FRES 4th & 11 at HAW 36, up 4
    Close callPunted · 67.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.2%−0.2
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    67.4%
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    67.1%−0.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:39HAW 4th & 9 at HAW 21, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.0%−1.5
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.5%
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:09FRES 4th & 1 at HAW 16, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 69.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    69.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    67.9%−1.5
    81% to make
    Punt
    62.5%−6.9
    average punt
  9. Q3 15:00HAW 4th & 10 at HAW 48, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.9%−1.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.1%
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:16HAW 4th & 9 at FRES 39, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 20.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.9%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    20.5%−0.3
    36% to make
    Punt
    20.7%−0.2
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:29FRES 4th & 15 at HAW 30, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 79.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.7%−2.0
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    79.7%
    56% to make
    Punt
    78.1%−1.6
    average punt
  12. Q3 4:29HAW 4th & 10 at FRES 33, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 15.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.5%−0.3
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    14.7%
    49% to make
    Punt
    14.1%−0.6
    average punt
  13. Q4 12:06FRES 4th & 7 at HAW 40, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 79.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    79.3%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    77.9%−1.4
    34% to make
    Punt
    78.3%−1.0
    average punt
  14. Q4 3:33HAW 4th & 6 at FRES 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 58.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.2%−1.4
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    55.7%
    81% to make
    Punt
    29.6%−26.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
HAW made the numbers' call on 3 of 3FRES made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 10:11HAW Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:13FRES Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 9:06FRES Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 9:22FRES Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 12:06HAW Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    19.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    19.0%−0.3
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 7:05HAW Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.2%−1.0
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
FRESDrive 1FUMBLE
5 plays · 32 yds · 0:0082% → 82%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+21
18.3%
Jake Haener pass complete to Ronnie Rivers for 21 yds to the Hawa 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
18.3%
Jake Haener pass incomplete to Ronnie RiversSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 39
0
18.3%
Jake Haener pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 39
+11
18.3%
Jake Haener pass complete to Jalen Cropper for 11 yds Jalen Cropper fumbled, forced by Hugh Nelson II, recovered by Hawa Kai KaneshiroSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 2TD
11 plays · 72 yds · 3:4919% → 22%
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
18.8%
Dae Dae Hunter run for no gain to the Hawa 28Similar
Q1 14:00
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+17
18.8%
Dae Dae Hunter run for 17 yds to the Hawa 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
18.9%
Dae Dae Hunter run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 14:00
2ND & 5
50
+8
18.9%
Dae Dae Hunter run for 8 yds to the FrsSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+7
18.9%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Nick Mardner for 7 yds to the FrsSt 35Similar
Q1 14:00
2ND & 3
OPP 35
-3
18.9%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Dedrick Parson for a loss of 3 yards to the FrsSt 38Similar
Q1 14:00
3RD & 6
OPP 38
+11
18.9%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Dedrick Parson for 11 yds to the FrsSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
18.9%
Brayden Schager pass incomplete to Nick Mardner, broken up by Malachi LangleySimilar
Q1 14:00
2ND & 10
OPP 27
0
18.9%
Brayden Schager pass incomplete to Dae Dae HunterSimilar
Q1 10:19
3RD & 10
OPP 27
+26
21.0%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Nick Mardner for 26 yds to the FrsSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
22.4%
Calvin Turner Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD, (Matthew Shipley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 3PUNT
9 plays · 25 yds · 0:0078% → 78%
Q1 10:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+25
21.9%
Jake Haener pass complete to Tre Watson for 25 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:11
1ST & 10
50
+4
21.6%
Ronnie Rivers run for 4 yds to the Hawa 46Similar
Q1 10:11
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+7
21.6%
Jake Haener pass complete to Josh Kelly for 7 yds to the Hawa 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:11
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-6
21.6%
Jake Haener sacked by Blessman Ta'ala for a loss of 6 yards to the Hawa 45Similar
Q1 10:11
2ND & 16
OPP 45
-5
21.7%
FRESNO ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 10:11
2ND & 21
50
0
21.8%
Jake Haener pass incomplete to Jalen Cropper, broken up by Blessman Ta'alaSimilar
Q1 10:11
3RD & 21
50
0
21.9%
Jake Haener pass incomplete to Ronnie RiversSimilar
Q1 10:11
4TH & 21
50
0
22.0%
Carson King punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Calvin Turner Jr. at the Hawa 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 4FG
7 plays · 63 yds · 2:3424% → 27%
Q1 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+22
24.1%
Calvin Turner Jr. run for 22 yds to the Hawa 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+10
24.5%
FRESNO ST Penalty, Defensive holding (DaRon Bland) to the FrsSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:40
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+34
24.6%
Dedrick Parson run for 34 yds to the FrsSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:40
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-1
24.7%
Brayden Schager run for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 15Similar
Q1 7:40
2ND & 11
OPP 15
-2
24.7%
Dedrick Parson run for a loss of 2 yards to the FrsSt 17Similar
Q1 7:40
3RD & 13
OPP 17
0
24.4%
Brayden Schager pass incomplete to Nick MardnerSimilar
Q1 5:06
4TH & 13
OPP 17
+34
26.8%
Matthew Shipley 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 5TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 0:5374% → 75%
Q1 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
26.2%
Jake Haener pass incomplete to Jalen Cropper, broken up by Darius MuasauSimilar
Q1 5:06
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+10
26.2%
Jake Haener pass complete to Ronnie Rivers for 10 yds to the FrsSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:13
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+65
24.8%
Jake Haener pass complete to Zane Pope for 65 yds for a TD, (Cesar Silva KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:0025% → 24%
Q1 4:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
24.8%
Dae Dae Hunter run for a loss of 1 yard to the Hawa 24Similar
Q1 4:13
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
24.7%
Brayden Schager pass incomplete to Nick Mardner, broken up by Wylan FreeSimilar
Q1 4:13
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
24.3%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Calvin Turner Jr. for no gain to the Hawa 24Similar
Q1 4:13
4TH & 11
OWN 24
+17
24.1%
Matthew Shipley punt for 43 yds , Ronnie Rivers returns for 17 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 7INT
8 plays · 33 yds · 2:5275% → 75%
Q1 2:52
1ST & 10
50
+3
24.9%
Ronnie Rivers run for 3 yds to the Hawa 47Similar
Q1 2:52
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+1
24.9%
Jake Haener run for 1 yd to the Hawa 46Similar
Q1 2:52
3RD & 6
OPP 46
+17
25.0%
Jake Haener pass complete to Josh Kelly for 17 yds to the Hawa 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:52
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
24.5%
Jake Haener pass incomplete to Jalen CropperSimilar
Q1 2:52
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+8
24.6%
Jake Haener pass complete to Ronnie Rivers for 8 yds to the Hawa 21Similar
Q1 0:33
3RD & 2
OPP 21
+4
25.6%
Jake Haener run for 4 yds to the Hawa 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
25.4%
Jake Haener pass intercepted Cortez Davis return for no gain to the Hawa 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:2127% → 27%
Q2 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+3
26.9%
Calvin Turner Jr. run for 3 yds to the Hawa 4Similar
Q2 14:54
2ND & 7
OWN 4
+2
26.7%
Calvin Turner Jr. run for 2 yds to the Hawa 6Similar
Q2 13:33
3RD & 5
OWN 6
0
27.5%
Brayden Schager pass incomplete to Nick Mardner, broken up by Emari PaitSimilar
Q2 13:33
4TH & 5
OWN 6
0
27.1%
Matthew Shipley punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Ronnie Rivers at the FrsSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 9TD
10 plays · 52 yds · 4:0872% → 76%
Q2 13:14
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
27.7%
Ronnie Rivers run for 5 yds to the Hawa 47Similar
Q2 13:14
2ND & 5
OPP 47
+4
27.5%
Ronnie Rivers run for 4 yds to the Hawa 43Similar
Q2 13:14
3RD & 1
OPP 43
-1
27.4%
Ronnie Rivers run for a loss of 1 yard to the Hawa 44Similar
Q2 13:14
4TH & 2
OPP 44
+9
28.4%
Jalen Cropper run for 9 yds to the Hawa 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:14
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+6
27.0%
Ronnie Rivers run for 6 yds to the Hawa 29Similar
Q2 13:14
2ND & 4
OPP 29
0
26.8%
Jake Haener pass incomplete to Josh KellySimilar
Q2 13:14
3RD & 4
OPP 29
+5
27.4%
Jake Haener pass complete to Raymond Pauwels Jr. for 5 yds to the Hawa 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:14
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+2
26.8%
Ronnie Rivers run for 2 yds to the Hawa 22Similar
Q2 13:14
2ND & 8
OPP 22
+15
26.8%
HAWAII Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Khoury Bethley) to the Hawa 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
24.3%
Jake Haener pass complete to Zane Pope for 7 yds for a TD, (Cesar Silva KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 10FUMBLE
7 plays · 15 yds · 0:0026% → 26%
Q2 9:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
26.4%
Calvin Turner Jr. run for 2 yds to the Hawa 27Similar
Q2 9:06
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+23
26.5%
Calvin Turner Jr. run for 23 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:06
1ST & 10
50
-10
28.4%
HAWAII Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the Hawa 40Similar
Q2 9:06
1ST & 20
OWN 40
+8
26.9%
Brayden Schager run for 8 yds to the Hawa 48Similar
Q2 9:06
2ND & 12
OWN 48
0
27.2%
Brayden Schager pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:06
3RD & 12
OWN 48
+7
26.4%
Brayden Schager sacked by David Perales for a loss of 8 yards to the FrsSt 45 Brayden Schager fumbled, recovered by FrsSt Arron Mosby , return for 0 yards FRESNO ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (15 Yards) to the FrsSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 0:0075% → 74%
Q2 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
24.8%
Jake Haener pass complete to Josh Kelly for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 6:49
2ND & 5
50
+15
24.6%
HAWAII Penalty, roughing passer (15 Yards) to the Hawa 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:49
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-8
24.3%
Ronnie Rivers run for 2 yds to the Hawa 33 FRESNO ST Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the Hawa 43Similar
Q2 6:49
2ND & 18
OPP 43
+7
25.1%
Jordan Mims run for 7 yds to the Hawa 36Similar
Q2 6:49
3RD & 11
OPP 36
0
24.9%
Jake Haener pass incomplete to Jalen Cropper, broken up by Quentin FrazierSimilar
Q2 6:49
4TH & 11
OPP 36
0
26.1%
Carson King punt for 36 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0028% → 26%
Q2 4:39
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
27.5%
Calvin Turner Jr. run for 1 yd to the Hawa 21Similar
Q2 4:39
2ND & 9
OWN 21
0
27.4%
Calvin Turner Jr. run for no gain to the Hawa 21Similar
Q2 4:39
3RD & 9
OWN 21
0
26.5%
Brayden Schager pass incomplete to Calvin Turner Jr.Similar
Q2 4:39
4TH & 9
OWN 21
0
26.0%
Matthew Shipley punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Ronnie Rivers at the FrsSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 13INT
10 plays · 53 yds · 1:5674% → 77%
Q2 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+11
26.0%
Jake Haener pass complete to Jalen Cropper for 11 yds to the FrsSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+13
25.2%
Jake Haener pass complete to Josh Kelly for 13 yds to the Hawa 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:05
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+19
24.7%
Jake Haener pass complete to Zane Pope for 19 yds to the Hawa 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:05
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
24.4%
Jake Haener pass complete to Ronnie Rivers for 3 yds to the Hawa 22Similar
Q2 3:05
2ND & 7
OPP 22
+5
24.3%
Jake Haener run for 5 yds to the Hawa 17Similar
Q2 1:09
3RD & 2
OPP 17
+1
23.8%
Jordan Mims run for 1 yd to the Hawa 16Similar
Q2 1:09
4TH & 1
OPP 16
+1
24.9%
Jake Haener run for 1 yd to the Hawa 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:09
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
23.4%
Jake Haener pass incomplete to Tre Watson, broken up by Cortez DavisSimilar
Q2 1:09
2ND & 10
OPP 15
0
23.4%
Jake Haener pass intercepted Khoury Bethley return for no gain to the Hawa 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 14END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0026% → 26%
Q2 0:22
1ST & 10
OWN 7
-1
26.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Hawa 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 23 yds · 0:0029% → 29%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
29.3%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Caleb Phillips for 10 yds to the Hawa 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+13
29.6%
Dae Dae Hunter run for 13 yds to the Hawa 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
31.8%
Dae Dae Hunter run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
50
-2
32.1%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Caleb Phillips for a loss of 2 yards to the Hawa 48Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 48
0
29.6%
Brayden Schager pass incomplete to Calvin Turner Jr.Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 10
OWN 48
0
28.7%
Matthew Shipley punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Ronnie Rivers at the FrsSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 16TD
10 plays · 80 yds · 3:2071% → 82%
Q3 12:42
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
28.9%
Jake Haener pass complete to Josh Kelly for 11 yds to the FrsSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:42
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
28.5%
Ronnie Rivers run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 36Similar
Q3 11:41
2ND & 5
OWN 36
+14
28.4%
Jake Haener pass complete to Ty Jones for 14 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:41
1ST & 10
50
+16
27.3%
Ronnie Rivers run for 16 yds to the Hawa 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:41
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
26.7%
Ronnie Rivers run for no gain to the Hawa 34Similar
Q3 11:41
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+9
26.7%
Jake Haener pass complete to Jalen Cropper for 9 yds to the Hawa 25Similar
Q3 11:41
3RD & 1
OPP 25
-10
27.2%
FRESNO ST Penalty, Offensive holding (Dontae Bull) to the Hawa 35Similar
Q3 9:22
3RD & 11
OPP 35
+35
16.8%
Jake Haener pass complete to Jalen Cropper for 35 yds for a TD, (Cesar Silva KICK)Similar
Q3 9:22
1ST & 0
OWN 35
-15
18.2%
FRESNO ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Alex Akingbulu) to the FrsSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 17DOWNS
8 plays · 17 yds · 0:0020% → 19%
Q3 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+7
20.0%
Dae Dae Hunter run for 7 yds to the FrsSt 49Similar
Q3 9:16
2ND & 3
OPP 49
+2
20.9%
Dae Dae Hunter run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 47Similar
Q3 9:16
3RD & 1
OPP 47
+7
20.7%
Dae Dae Hunter run for 7 yds to the FrsSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:16
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-2
20.8%
Dae Dae Hunter run for a loss of 2 yards to the FrsSt 42Similar
Q3 9:16
2ND & 12
OPP 42
+3
20.3%
Dedrick Parson run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 39Similar
Q3 9:16
3RD & 9
OPP 39
0
20.3%
Brayden Schager pass incomplete to Nick MardnerSimilar
Q3 9:16
4TH & 9
OPP 39
0
19.1%
Brayden Schager pass incomplete to Nick MardnerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 18FG
5 plays · 30 yds · 2:1184% → 90%
Q3 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+35
16.3%
Jake Haener pass complete to Keric Wheatfall for 20 yds to the HAWAII 40 for a 1ST down HAWAII Penalty, roughing passer (Quentin Frazier) to the Hawa 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:40
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
15.6%
Jaylen Henderson run for 3 yds to the Hawa 22Similar
Q3 6:40
2ND & 7
OPP 22
0
15.5%
Jaylen Henderson pass incomplete to Jalen CropperSimilar
Q3 6:40
3RD & 7
OPP 22
-8
15.9%
Jaylen Henderson sacked by Pita Tonga for a loss of 8 yards to the Hawa 30Similar
Q3 4:29
4TH & 15
OPP 30
+48
10.4%
Cesar Silva 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 19DOWNS
10 plays · 50 yds · 0:0013% → 14%
Q3 4:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
12.6%
Dae Dae Hunter run for 14 yds to the Hawa 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:29
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
13.7%
Dae Dae Hunter run for 8 yds to the Hawa 47Similar
Q3 4:29
2ND & 2
OWN 47
+5
14.6%
Dedrick Parson run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:29
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
14.4%
Brayden Schager pass incomplete to Calvin Turner Jr.Similar
Q3 4:29
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+15
14.3%
FRESNO ST Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Bralyn Lux) to the FrsSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:29
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
15.1%
Brayden Schager pass incomplete to James PhillipsSimilar
Q3 4:29
2ND & 10
OPP 33
0
14.9%
Brayden Schager pass incomplete to Nick MardnerSimilar
Q3 4:29
3RD & 10
OPP 33
0
14.3%
Brayden Schager pass incomplete to Koali NishigayaSimilar
Q3 4:29
4TH & 10
OPP 33
+8
13.6%
Brayden Schager run for 8 yds to the FrsSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 20INT
8 plays · 32 yds · 2:2991% → 93%
Q3 2:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
9.0%
Jake Haener pass incomplete to Jalen Cropper, broken up by Quentin FrazierSimilar
Q3 2:29
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+10
9.0%
Jake Haener pass complete to Ronnie Rivers for 10 yds to the FrsSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:29
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-10
9.0%
Jalen Cropper run for a loss of 10 yards to the FrsSt 25Similar
Q3 2:29
2ND & 20
OWN 25
+22
9.2%
Jake Haener pass complete to Jalen Cropper for 7 yds to the FrsSt 32 for a 1ST down HAWAII Penalty, roughing passer (Zacchaeus McKinney) to the FrsSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:29
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+15
8.4%
Jake Haener pass complete to Zane Pope for 15 yds to the Hawa 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:29
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-10
8.3%
FRESNO ST Penalty, Offensive holding (Dontae Bull) to the Hawa 48Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 20
OPP 48
+5
7.3%
Jordan Mims run for 5 yds to the Hawa 43Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 15
OPP 43
-27
7.3%
Jake Haener pass intercepted Khoury Bethley return for 27 yds to the FrsSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 21TD
5 plays · 44 yds · 2:0713% → 30%
Q4 14:13
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-3
13.1%
Calvin Turner Jr. run for a loss of 3 yards to the FrsSt 47Similar
Q4 14:13
2ND & 13
OPP 47
+15
12.3%
FRESNO ST Penalty, roughing passer (Kevin Atkins) to the FrsSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:13
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
13.9%
Calvin Turner Jr. run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 28Similar
Q4 14:13
2ND & 6
OPP 28
+2
14.1%
Calvin Turner Jr. run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 26Similar
Q4 12:06
3RD & 4
OPP 26
+26
29.8%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Caleb Phillips for 26 yds for a TD, (Matthew Shipley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 22DOWNS
8 plays · 35 yds · 0:0079% → 80%
Q4 12:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
20.7%
Jake Haener pass incomplete to Keric WheatfallSimilar
Q4 12:06
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
21.3%
Ronnie Rivers run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 29Similar
Q4 12:06
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+28
21.0%
Jake Haener run for 28 yds to the Hawa 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:06
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
18.0%
Jake Haener run for 3 yds to the Hawa 40Similar
Q4 12:06
2ND & 7
OPP 40
0
18.0%
Jake Haener pass incomplete to Zane PopeSimilar
Q4 12:06
3RD & 7
OPP 40
0
18.4%
Jake Haener pass incomplete to Ronnie Rivers, broken up by Hugh Nelson IISimilar
Q4 12:06
4TH & 7
OPP 40
0
20.2%
Jake Haener pass incomplete to Josh Kelly, broken up by Cortez DavisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 23TD
6 plays · 60 yds · 2:5526% → 62%
Q4 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
26.0%
Dae Dae Hunter run for 5 yds to the Hawa 45Similar
Q4 10:00
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+24
27.0%
Dae Dae Hunter run for 24 yds to the FrsSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-1
30.8%
Dae Dae Hunter run for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 32Similar
Q4 10:00
2ND & 11
OPP 32
+14
30.5%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Calvin Turner Jr. for 14 yds to the FrsSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
30.8%
Dae Dae Hunter run for no gain to the FrsSt 18Similar
Q4 7:05
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+18
62.2%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Calvin Turner Jr. for 18 yds for a TD, (Matthew Shipley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 24FUMBLE
3 plays · 9 yds · 0:0054% → 58%
Q4 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
46.3%
Ronnie Rivers run for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:05
1ST & 10
50
-6
41.8%
Jake Haener sacked by Khoury Bethley for a loss of 6 yards to the FrsSt 44 Jake Haener fumbled, recovered by Hawa Jonah Laulu , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 25FG
8 plays · 28 yds · 2:5461% → 81%
Q4 6:27
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+10
60.7%
Dae Dae Hunter run for 10 yds to the FrsSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:27
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
62.7%
Dae Dae Hunter run for no gain to the FrsSt 34Similar
Q4 6:27
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+5
62.7%
Dae Dae Hunter run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 29Similar
Q4 6:27
3RD & 5
OPP 29
+9
60.7%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Calvin Turner Jr. for 9 yds to the FrsSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:27
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+4
62.9%
Dae Dae Hunter run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 16Similar
Q4 6:27
2ND & 6
OPP 16
0
62.9%
Brayden Schager pass incomplete to Calvin Turner Jr.Similar
Q4 6:27
3RD & 6
OPP 16
0
60.6%
Brayden Schager pass incomplete to Nick MardnerSimilar
Q4 3:33
4TH & 6
OPP 16
+33
80.6%
Matthew Shipley 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 26INT
15 plays · 64 yds · 0:0031% → 41%
Q4 3:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
68.8%
Jake Haener pass complete to Josh Kelly for 7 yds to the FrsSt 32Similar
Q4 3:33
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+6
64.7%
Ronnie Rivers run for 6 yds to the FrsSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:33
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
65.9%
Jake Haener pass complete to Ronnie Rivers for 7 yds to the FrsSt 45Similar
Q4 3:33
2ND & 3
OWN 45
+3
62.8%
Ronnie Rivers run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:33
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
62.9%
Jake Haener pass incomplete to Zane PopeSimilar
Q4 3:33
2ND & 10
OWN 48
0
64.4%
Jake Haener pass incomplete to Jalen Cropper, broken up by Isaiah TufagaSimilar
Q4 3:33
3RD & 10
OWN 48
+10
66.3%
HAWAII Penalty, Defensive holding (Khoury Bethley) to the Hawa 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:33
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+6
61.4%
Jake Haener run for 6 yds to the Hawa 36Similar
Q4 3:33
2ND & 4
OPP 36
0
60.9%
Jake Haener pass incomplete to Josh KellySimilar
Q4 3:33
3RD & 4
OPP 36
+7
61.5%
Jake Haener pass complete to Zane Pope for 7 yds to the Hawa 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:33
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+9
59.1%
Jake Haener pass complete to Keric Wheatfall for 9 yds to the Hawa 20Similar
Q4 3:33
2ND & 1
OPP 20
0
59.0%
Jake Haener pass incomplete to Zane PopeSimilar
Q4 3:33
3RD & 1
OPP 20
+10
60.9%
Jake Haener pass complete to Tre Watson for 10 yds to the Hawa 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:33
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-1
59.0%
Jake Haener pass intercepted Hugh Nelson II return for no gain to the Hawa 11 HAWAII Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (1 Yards) to the Hawa 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 27END OF GAME
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0594% → 94%
Q4 0:09
1ST & 10
OWN 2
0
94.4%
Calvin Turner Jr. run for no gain to the Hawa 2Similar
Q4 0:06
2ND & 10
OWN 2
+1
94.3%
Calvin Turner Jr. run for 1 yd to the Hawa 3Similar
Q4 0:04
3RD & 9
OWN 3
+1
94.4%
Calvin Turner Jr. run for 1 yd to the Hawa 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 7:05
Brayden Schager pass complete to Calvin Turner Jr. for 18 yds for a TD, (Matthew Shipley KICK)
+31.4
FG · Q4 3:33
Matthew Shipley 33 yd FG GOOD
+20
TD · Q4 12:06
Brayden Schager pass complete to Caleb Phillips for 26 yds for a TD, (Matthew Shipley KICK)
+15.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com