Try the model
HAW

Hawai'i 27 at Oregon State 45

ORST
2021 · Week 2 · Sep 11, 2021 · Reser Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · ORST
modelORST aheadHAW aheadconfidence bandkey playORST scoreHAW score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 12:32 · Chevan Cordeiro pass intercepted return for no gain to the OrgSt 23
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+30.5+15.30−15.3−30.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 91Pregame prior+14.1Home team on offense+20.8Score differential+13.5Garbage-time factor+3.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+4.7Time remaining+1.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 14:46: B.J. Baylor run for 30 yds for a TD, (Everett Hayes KICK) — ORST win probability +6.0 pts (now 95%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 3:46: Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Nick Mardner for 10 yds for a TD, (Matthew Shipley KICK) — HAW win probability +7.3 pts (now 15%) (top driver: HAW has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 14:54: Chance Nolan pass complete to Anthony Gould for 13 yds for a TD, (Everett Hayes KICK) — ORST win probability +6.4 pts (now 97%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 10:28: Calvin Turner Jr. 3 Yd Run (Matthew Shipley Kick) — HAW win probability +7.9 pts (now 13%) (top driver: HAW has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 3:12: B.J. Baylor run for 1 yd for a TD, (Everett Hayes KICK) — ORST win probability +6.5 pts (now 99%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ORST made the numbers' call on 2 of 4HAW made the numbers' call on 3 of 6
  1. Q1 8:13HAW 4th & 22 at ORST 42, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.0%−0.2
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    22.1%−0.1
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    22.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:43HAW 4th & 7 at HAW 25, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.7%−0.4
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:43ORST 4th & 1 at HAW 45, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 80.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    81.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    79.6%−1.4
    25% to make
    Punt
    80.1%−0.9
    average punt
  4. Q2 5:03ORST 4th & 3 at HAW 9, up 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 84.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    83.5%−0.7
    89% to make
    Punt
    78.9%−5.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 3:11HAW 4th & 10 at midfield, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.9%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.9%
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:46ORST 4th & 7 at ORST 46, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.9%−0.4
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.3%
    average punt
  7. Q3 12:32HAW 4th & 13 at ORST 34, down 24
    Close callWent for it · 5.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.8%−0.3
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    5.1%
    47% to make
    Punt
    4.9%−0.2
    average punt
  8. Q3 10:22ORST 4th & 6 at ORST 49, up 24
    Close callPunted · 95.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.7%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  9. Q4 3:01HAW 4th & 10 at ORST 45, down 18
    Close callWent for it · 1.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.5%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    1.5%−<0.1
    25% to make
    Punt
    1.5%
    average punt
  10. Q4 1:07HAW 4th & 18 at ORST 41, down 18
    Close callWent for it · 1.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.1%−0.1
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    1.2%
    32% to make
    Punt
    1.2%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ORST made the numbers' call on 6 of 6HAW made the numbers' call on 2 of 4
  1. Q1 10:43ORST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:04ORST Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:22ORST Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 10:30HAW Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    16.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    16.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 14:46ORST Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 6:45HAW Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    6.4%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    6.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 3:46HAW Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    12.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    12.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 14:54ORST Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 10:28HAW Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    8.2%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    8.3%
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 3:12ORST Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ORSTDrive 1TD
10 plays · 65 yds · 4:1779% → 80%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
79.3%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Trevon Bradford for 9 yds to the OrgSt 44Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 44
0
79.3%
B.J. Baylor run for no gain to the OrgSt 44Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+4
79.3%
Chance Nolan run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+7
79.3%
B.J. Baylor run for 7 yds to the Hawa 45Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 45
-3
79.3%
Deshaun Fenwick run for a loss of 3 yards to the Hawa 48Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 48
+33
79.3%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Anthony Gould for 33 yds to the Hawa 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
79.3%
Trey Lowe run for 2 yds to the Hawa 13Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 13
+10
79.3%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Anthony Gould for 10 yds to the Hawa 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
79.3%
Chance Nolan run for 1 yd to the Hawa 2Similar
Q1 10:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
79.6%
Jack Colletto 2 Yd Run (Everett Hayes Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 2PUNT
9 plays · 33 yds · 2:3021% → 21%
Q1 10:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
79.2%
Chevan Cordeiro run for 17 yds to the Hawa 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:43
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
79.0%
Dae Dae Hunter run for 6 yds to the Hawa 48Similar
Q1 10:43
2ND & 4
OWN 48
+10
78.9%
Calvin Turner Jr. run for 10 yds to the OrgSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:43
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+12
78.9%
Dae Dae Hunter run for 12 yds to the OrgSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:43
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
78.8%
Chevan Cordeiro pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:43
2ND & 10
OPP 30
-5
78.8%
HAWAII Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the OrgSt 35Similar
Q1 10:43
2ND & 15
OPP 35
0
78.9%
Chevan Cordeiro sacked by Riley Sharp for 0 yards to the OrgSt 42Similar
Q1 10:43
3RD & 22
OPP 42
0
79.2%
Chevan Cordeiro pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:13
4TH & 22
OPP 42
0
79.4%
Matthew Shipley punt for 42 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 3TD
3 plays · 80 yds · 1:0979% → 82%
Q1 8:13
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
79.3%
Chance Nolan pass complete to B.J. Baylor for 9 yds to the OrgSt 29Similar
Q1 8:13
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+5
79.5%
B.J. Baylor run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+66
81.8%
B.J. Baylor run for 66 yds for a TD, (Everett Hayes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:1519% → 18%
Q1 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-3
81.3%
Calvin Turner Jr. run for a loss of 3 yards to the Hawa 19Similar
Q1 6:58
2ND & 13
OWN 19
+6
81.3%
James Phillips run for 6 yds to the Hawa 25Similar
Q1 6:58
3RD & 7
OWN 25
0
81.3%
Chevan Cordeiro pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:43
4TH & 7
OWN 25
0
81.7%
Matthew Shipley punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Trevon Bradford at the OrgSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 5TD
11 plays · 64 yds · 5:2182% → 88%
Q1 5:43
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+10
82.3%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Trevon Bradford for 10 yds to the OrgSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:43
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+8
82.6%
Trey Lowe run for 8 yds to the Hawa 46Similar
Q1 5:43
2ND & 2
OPP 46
0
82.6%
Chance Nolan sacked by O'tay Baker for 0 yards to the OrgSt 44Similar
Q1 5:43
3RD & 12
OWN 44
+11
82.2%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Anthony Gould for 11 yds to the Hawa 45Similar
Q1 5:43
4TH & 1
OPP 45
+9
82.2%
run for 9 yds to the Hawa 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:43
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-10
82.6%
FENWICK, Deshaun rush up the middle for a gain of 14 yards to the HAW22 (TUFAGA, Isaiah), out of bounds. PENALTY OSU Holding on BREWER, Marco enforced 10 yards from the HAW36 to the HAW46. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 5:43
1ST & 20
OPP 46
+6
82.5%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Anthony Gould for 6 yds to the Hawa 40Similar
Q1 5:43
2ND & 14
OPP 40
+19
82.5%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Tre'Shaun Harrison for 19 yds to the Hawa 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:43
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+9
82.7%
B.J. Baylor run for 9 yds to the Hawa 12Similar
Q1 5:43
2ND & 1
OPP 12
+6
82.7%
Deshaun Fenwick run for 6 yds to the Hawa 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
87.9%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Zeriah Beason for 6 yds for a TD, (Everett Hayes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 6TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:3012% → 18%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
88.1%
Dae Dae Hunter run for a loss of 5 yards to the Hawa 20Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+7
88.3%
Chevan Cordeiro run for 7 yds to the Hawa 27Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+9
88.3%
Chevan Cordeiro run for 9 yds to the Hawa 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
88.0%
Calvin Turner Jr. run for 2 yds to the Hawa 38Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 38
0
88.0%
Chevan Cordeiro pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 38
+24
88.1%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Nick Mardner for 24 yds to the OrgSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-2
87.6%
Chevan Cordeiro run for a loss of 2 yards to the OrgSt 40Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 12
OPP 40
0
87.9%
Chevan Cordeiro pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 12
OPP 40
+17
88.1%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Calvin Turner Jr. for 17 yds to the OrgSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+11
87.1%
Chevan Cordeiro run for 11 yds to the OrgSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
87.1%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Dae Dae Hunter for no gain to the OrgSt 12Similar
Q2 10:30
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+12
81.7%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Calvin Turner Jr. for 12 yds for a TD, (Matthew Shipley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 7FG
10 plays · 68 yds · 5:2285% → 89%
Q2 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+10
84.7%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Trevon Bradford for 10 yds to the OrgSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
84.7%
B.J. Baylor run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 34Similar
Q2 10:25
2ND & 9
OWN 34
+13
84.7%
Chance Nolan run for 13 yds to the OrgSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
85.4%
B.J. Baylor run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 49Similar
Q2 10:25
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+11
85.3%
Trey Lowe run for 11 yds to the Hawa 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:25
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+24
85.4%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Anthony Gould for 24 yds to the Hawa 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:25
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+2
85.4%
Trey Lowe run for 2 yds to the Hawa 14Similar
Q2 10:25
2ND & 8
OPP 14
+4
85.4%
Deshaun Fenwick run for 4 yds to the Hawa 10Similar
Q2 10:25
3RD & 4
OPP 10
+1
85.1%
Deshaun Fenwick run for 1 yd to the Hawa 9Similar
Q2 5:03
4TH & 3
OPP 9
+27
88.8%
Everett Hayes 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 25 yds · 1:5212% → 12%
Q2 5:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
87.6%
Chevan Cordeiro run for 6 yds to the Hawa 31Similar
Q2 5:03
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+5
87.2%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Calvin Turner Jr. for 5 yds to the Hawa 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:03
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+14
87.3%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Caleb Phillips for 14 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:03
1ST & 10
50
0
86.6%
Chevan Cordeiro pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:03
2ND & 10
50
0
87.0%
Chevan Cordeiro pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:03
3RD & 10
50
0
87.3%
Chevan Cordeiro pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:11
4TH & 10
50
0
88.2%
Matthew Shipley punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Trevon Bradford at the OrgSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 9PUNT
8 plays · 33 yds · 1:4590% → 90%
Q2 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+7
89.8%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Trevon Bradford for 7 yds to the OrgSt 20Similar
Q2 2:31
2ND & 3
OWN 20
+1
89.9%
B.J. Baylor run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 21Similar
Q2 2:31
3RD & 2
OWN 21
+22
89.5%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Anthony Gould for 22 yds to the OrgSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
90.3%
Chance Nolan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:13
2ND & 10
OWN 43
-10
90.8%
NOLAN, Chance pass up the middle complete for 57 yards to BRADFORD, Trevon caught at the HAW41 and advanced to the HAW0, TOUCHDOWN OSU, score nullified by penalty. PENALTY OSU Holding on LOWE, Trey enforced 10 yards from the OSU43 to the OSU33 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 1:13
2ND & 20
OWN 33
0
90.5%
Chance Nolan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:55
3RD & 20
OWN 33
+13
90.2%
Chance Nolan run for 13 yds to the OrgSt 46Similar
Q2 0:46
4TH & 7
OWN 46
0
90.1%
Luke Loecher punt for 54 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 10END OF HALF
7 plays · 33 yds · 0:4611% → 12%
Q2 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+14
88.8%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Calvin Turner Jr. for 14 yds to the Hawa 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
88.5%
Chevan Cordeiro pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:20
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+16
88.6%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to James Phillips for 16 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:20
1ST & 10
50
-5
87.4%
TURNER JR, Calvin pass to the right incomplete intended for SMART, Jared thrown to the OSU27. PENALTY HAW Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on LEVAO, Kohl enforced 5 yards from the HAW50 to the HAW45 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 0:20
1ST & 15
OWN 45
+7
88.5%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to James Phillips for 7 yds to the OrgSt 48Similar
Q2 0:20
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+1
87.4%
Chevan Cordeiro run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 47Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 7
OPP 47
0
88.1%
Chevan Cordeiro pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 11INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
89.2%
Chevan Cordeiro pass intercepted return for no gain to the Hawa 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 12TD
1 play · 30 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q3 14:46
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+30
95.1%
B.J. Baylor run for 30 yds for a TD, (Everett Hayes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 13DOWNS
8 plays · 37 yds · 2:146% → 5%
Q3 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
94.1%
OREGON ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the Hawa 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
93.8%
Calvin Turner Jr. run for 1 yd to the Hawa 41Similar
Q3 14:46
2ND & 9
OWN 41
0
93.8%
Chevan Cordeiro pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:46
3RD & 9
OWN 41
0
93.9%
OREGON ST Penalty, Defensive Holding (Riley Sharp) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:46
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
93.2%
Chevan Cordeiro pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:46
2ND & 10
OPP 31
0
93.3%
Chevan Cordeiro pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:46
3RD & 10
OPP 31
0
93.8%
Chevan Cordeiro sacked by Andrzej Hughes-Murray for 0 yards to the OrgSt 34Similar
Q3 12:32
4TH & 13
OPP 34
0
95.1%
Chevan Cordeiro pass intercepted return for no gain to the OrgSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 26 yds · 2:1095% → 96%
Q3 12:32
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+12
95.3%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Trevon Bradford for 12 yds to the OrgSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:32
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+10
95.4%
B.J. Baylor run for 10 yds to the OrgSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:32
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
95.6%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Trey Lowe for 2 yds to the OrgSt 47Similar
Q3 12:32
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+2
95.5%
Trey Lowe run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 49Similar
Q3 12:32
3RD & 6
OWN 49
0
95.5%
Chance Nolan pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:22
4TH & 6
OWN 49
0
95.8%
Luke Loecher punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Calvin Turner Jr. at the Hawa 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 15TD
9 plays · 90 yds · 3:374% → 8%
Q3 10:22
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+22
96.1%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Dae Dae Hunter for 22 yds to the Hawa 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:22
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
95.9%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Nick Mardner for no gain to the Hawa 32Similar
Q3 10:22
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+40
96.0%
pass incomplete to Nick Mardner for a 1ST down to Nick Mardner for 40 yds to the OrgSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:22
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+3
95.3%
run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 25Similar
Q3 10:22
2ND & 7
OPP 25
+16
95.3%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Calvin Turner Jr. for 16 yds to the OrgSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
95.3%
Calvin Turner Jr. run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 6Similar
Q3 10:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
95.3%
OREGON ST Penalty, Face mask (0 yards) (Andrzej Hughes-Murray) to the OrgSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
95.4%
Calvin Turner Jr. run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 1Similar
Q3 6:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
91.9%
Calvin Turner Jr. 1 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 16FUMBLE
2 plays · 11 yds · 0:4995% → 95%
Q3 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
94.6%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Teagan Quitoriano for 10 yds to the OrgSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
94.9%
B.J. Baylor run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 17TD
5 plays · 46 yds · 2:047% → 15%
Q3 5:50
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+10
93.3%
CORDEIRO, Chevan pass to the right incomplete intended for FISO, Steven thrown to the OSU15. PENALTY OSU Holding enforced 10 yards from the OSU36 to the OSU26 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 5:50
1ST & 20
OPP 46
+35
93.4%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Calvin Turner Jr. for 35 yds to the OrgSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:50
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
92.4%
Dedrick Parson run for no gain to the OrgSt 11Similar
Q3 5:50
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+1
92.4%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Caleb Phillips for 1 yd to the OrgSt 10Similar
Q3 3:46
3RD & 9
OPP 10
+10
85.1%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Nick Mardner for 10 yds for a TD, (Matthew Shipley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 18TD
9 plays · 77 yds · 3:4488% → 97%
Q3 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
87.6%
Chance Nolan pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:38
2ND & 10
OWN 23
-10
87.5%
LOWE, Trey rush up the middle for a gain of 3 yards to the OSU26 (TUFAGA, Isaiah;MATTHEWS, DJuan). PENALTY OSU Holding on GRAY, Joshua enforced 10 yards from the OSU23 to the OSU13 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 3:38
2ND & 20
OWN 13
+15
87.4%
HAWAII Penalty, Targeting on MUASAU, Darius enforced (Darius Muasau) to the OrgSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+8
88.4%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Zeriah Beason for 8 yds to the OrgSt 48Similar
Q3 3:38
2ND & 2
OWN 48
+8
88.5%
B.J. Baylor run for 8 yds to the Hawa 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:38
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+9
88.5%
B.J. Baylor run for 9 yds to the Hawa 35Similar
Q3 3:38
2ND & 1
OPP 35
+2
88.5%
B.J. Baylor run for 2 yds to the Hawa 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+20
90.4%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Teagan Quitoriano for 20 yds to the Hawa 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
96.8%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Anthony Gould for 13 yds for a TD, (Everett Hayes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 19TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 4:265% → 13%
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
95.5%
Calvin Turner Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the Hawa 24Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
95.6%
Chevan Cordeiro pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:54
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+16
95.7%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Nick Mardner for 16 yds to the Hawa 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
95.3%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Calvin Turner Jr. for 7 yds to the Hawa 47Similar
Q4 13:13
2ND & 3
OWN 47
-10
95.7%
CORDEIRO, Chevan pass to the left incomplete intended for TURNER JR, Calvin thrown to the OSU31. PENALTY HAW Holding on VANTERPOOL, Micah enforced 10 yards from the HAW47 to the HAW37 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 13:13
2ND & 13
OWN 37
0
96.1%
Chevan Cordeiro pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:13
3RD & 13
OWN 37
+20
96.2%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Nick Mardner for 20 yds to the OrgSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:13
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+30
95.8%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Dae Dae Hunter for 30 yds to the OrgSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:13
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
95.2%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Dae Dae Hunter for 3 yds to the OrgSt 10Similar
Q4 13:13
2ND & 7
OPP 10
0
95.2%
Chevan Cordeiro run for no gain to the OrgSt 10Similar
Q4 13:13
3RD & 7
OPP 10
+7
95.5%
Chevan Cordeiro run for 7 yds to the OrgSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
95.2%
Chevan Cordeiro pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
87.3%
Calvin Turner Jr. 3 Yd Run (Matthew Shipley Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 20TD
17 plays · 90 yds · 7:1091% → 99%
Q4 10:22
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+6
91.2%
B.J. Baylor run for 6 yds to the OrgSt 16Similar
Q4 10:22
2ND & 4
OWN 16
+5
91.2%
Chance Nolan run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:22
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-5
91.3%
NOLAN, Chance pass to the right complete for 9 yards to QUITORIANO, Teagan caught at the OSU25 and advanced to the OSU30 (BETHLEY, Khoury), out of bounds. PENALTY OSU Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on KEOBOUNNAM, Nous enforced 5 yards from the OSU21 to the OSU16. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 10:22
1ST & 15
OWN 16
0
91.2%
Chance Nolan pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:22
2ND & 15
OWN 16
+31
91.1%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Trevon Bradford for 31 yds to the OrgSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:22
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
92.1%
Trey Lowe run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 48Similar
Q4 10:22
2ND & 9
OWN 48
0
92.1%
Chance Nolan pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:22
3RD & 9
OWN 48
+30
91.5%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Tre'Shaun Harrison for 30 yds to the Hawa 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:22
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
92.2%
Chance Nolan pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:22
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+8
92.2%
B.J. Baylor run for 8 yds to the Hawa 14Similar
Q4 10:22
3RD & 2
OPP 14
+3
91.9%
run for 3 yds to the Hawa 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:22
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+5
92.2%
B.J. Baylor run for 5 yds to the Hawa 6Similar
Q4 10:22
2ND & 5
OPP 6
0
92.2%
Chance Nolan pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:22
3RD & 5
OPP 6
+4
91.9%
NOLAN, Chance pass up the middle incomplete intended for MUSGRAVE, Luke broken up by FORD, Eugene at the HAW0. PENALTY HAW Pass Interference on FORD, Eugene enforced 4 yards from the HAW6 to the HAW2 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 10:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
92.3%
run for 1 yd to the Hawa 1Similar
Q4 10:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
92.2%
run for no gain to the Hawa 1Similar
Q4 3:12
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
98.7%
B.J. Baylor run for 1 yd for a TD, (Everett Hayes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 21DOWNS
11 plays · 31 yds · 1:542% → 2%
Q4 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
98.2%
Chevan Cordeiro pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:01
2ND & 10
OWN 45
0
98.2%
Chevan Cordeiro pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:01
3RD & 10
OWN 45
+10
98.3%
Chevan Cordeiro run for 10 yds to the OrgSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:01
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
98.2%
Chevan Cordeiro pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:01
2ND & 10
OPP 45
0
98.2%
Chevan Cordeiro pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:01
3RD & 10
OPP 45
0
98.2%
Chevan Cordeiro pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:01
4TH & 10
OPP 45
+12
98.2%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Jared Smart for 12 yds to the OrgSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:01
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
97.8%
Chevan Cordeiro pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:24
2ND & 10
OPP 33
0
98.0%
Chevan Cordeiro sacked by Avery Roberts for 0 yards to the OrgSt 41Similar
Q4 1:24
3RD & 18
OPP 41
0
98.4%
Chevan Cordeiro pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:07
4TH & 18
OPP 41
+17
98.4%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Aaron Cephus for 17 yds to the OrgSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 10:28
Calvin Turner Jr. 3 Yd Run (Matthew Shipley Kick)
-7.9
TD · Q3 3:46
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Nick Mardner for 10 yds for a TD, (Matthew Shipley KICK)
-7.3
TD · Q4 3:12
B.J. Baylor run for 1 yd for a TD, (Everett Hayes KICK)
+6.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com