2021 · Week 4 · Sep 25, 2021 · Aggie Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · NMSU
modelNMSU aheadHAW aheadconfidence bandkey playNMSU scoreHAW score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 14:16 · Matthew Shipley punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Lawrence Dixon at the NMxSt 23
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- FG · Q1 9:33: Ethan Albertson 33 yd FG GOOD — NMSU win probability +2.8 pts (now 25%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
- FUMBLE · Q2 13:31: Jonah Johnson run for 23 yds Jonah Johnson fumbled, forced by Quentin Frazier, recovered by Hawa Cameron Lockridge for a TD, (Matthew Shipley KICK) — HAW win probability +4.3 pts (now 80%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 11:27: Jonah Johnson pass complete to Robert Downs III for 6 yds for a TD, (Ethan Albertson KICK) — NMSU win probability +6.2 pts (now 27%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
- FG · Q2 7:58: Ethan Albertson 20 yd FG GOOD — NMSU win probability +3.1 pts (now 30%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 14:06: Kyler Halvorsen kickoff for 65 yds , Juwaun Price return for 25 yds to the NMxSt 15 — NMSU win probability +5.2 pts (now 38%) (top driver: HAW has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
NMSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 8HAW made the numbers' call on 2 of 5
- Q1 9:33NMSU 4th & 6 at HAW 15, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 17.6% before the snapGo for it17.6%−<0.137% to convertField goalTheir call17.6%83% to makePunt17.1%−0.5average punt
- Q1 7:51NMSU 4th & 10 at NMSU 25, down 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.2% before the snapGo for it17.2%−0.228% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call17.4%average punt
- Q1 3:26HAW 4th & 8 at NMSU 8, up 4Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 80.7% before the snapGo for it80.3%−0.226% to convertField goalTheir call80.5%90% to makePunt78.5%−2.0average punt
- Q1 0:30NMSU 4th & 13 at NMSU 33, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.0% before the snapGo for it17.5%−0.920% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call18.4%average punt
- Q2 14:16HAW 4th & 4 at HAW 46, up 7Close callPunted · 81.7% before the snapGo for it81.9%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call81.8%−0.1average punt
- Q2 7:58NMSU 4th & 1 at HAW 1, down 7Numbers favored go for it by 1.8 ptsKicked a field goal · 20.7% before the snapGo for it20.2%59% to convertField goalTheir call18.4%−1.894% to makePunt13.9%−6.3average punt
- Q2 0:44NMSU 4th & 8 at HAW 10, down 4Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 27.4% before the snapGo for it26.4%−1.128% to convertField goalTheir call27.5%88% to makePunt22.2%−5.3average punt
- Q3 12:07HAW 4th & 4 at NMSU 43, up 1Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 70.3% before the snapGo for it70.9%48% to convertField goal68.6%−2.328% to makePuntTheir call69.6%−1.3average punt
- Q3 10:09NMSU 4th & 1 at NMSU 29, down 1Numbers favored go for it by 2.7 ptsPunted · 31.6% before the snapGo for it33.6%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call30.9%−2.7average punt
- Q3 8:40HAW 4th & 12 at HAW 29, up 1Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.7% before the snapGo for it63.5%−2.622% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call66.1%average punt
- Q3 0:34NMSU 4th & 10 at NMSU 36, down 1Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.3% before the snapGo for it33.7%−2.929% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call36.6%average punt
- Q4 14:06NMSU 4th & 9 at HAW 29, down 1Numbers favored field goal by 1.7 ptsWent for it · 39.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call38.2%−1.731% to convertField goal39.9%58% to makePunt28.7%−11.2average punt
- Q4 6:52HAW 4th & 5 at NMSU 24, up 1Close callKicked a field goal · 63.7% before the snapGo for it60.8%41% to convertField goalTheir call60.7%−0.168% to makePunt41.9%−19.0average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NMSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1HAW made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 9:19HAW Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call82.8%97% to makeGo for two82.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 11:27NMSU Touchdown, down 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call19.0%97% to makeGo for two19.0%−0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartNMSUDrive 1FG14 plays · 60 yds · 5:2721% → 25%
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+5
21.2%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Robert Downs III for 5 yds to the NMxSt 33Similar
Q1 14:04
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
21.7%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Jared Wyatt for 5 yds to the NMxSt 40Similar
Q1 14:04
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+9
21.7%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Thomaz Whitford for 9 yds to the Hawa 35Similar
Q1 14:04
3RD & 1
OPP 35
+16
21.7%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Andre Bodison for 16 yds to the Hawa 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:04
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+6
21.7%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Thomaz Whitford for 6 yds to the Hawa 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 2TD2 plays · 74 yds · 0:0077% → 77%
Q1 9:19
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+74
23.3%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Nick Mardner for 74 yds for a TD, (Matthew Shipley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 3PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 1:2823% → 23%
HAWDrive 4FG9 plays · 54 yds · 4:2577% → 77%
Q1 7:51
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+23
23.4%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Jared Smart for 23 yds to the NMxSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:51
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+17
23.1%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Nick Mardner for 17 yds to the NMxSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:51
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
23.4%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Calvin Turner Jr. for 1 yd to the NMxSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 5PUNT10 plays · 8 yds · 2:5623% → 23%
HAWDrive 6PUNT6 plays · 34 yds · 1:1476% → 76%
Q1 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+17
23.9%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Calvin Turner Jr. for 17 yds to the Hawa 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+11
23.6%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Calvin Turner Jr. for 11 yds to the Hawa 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:16
4TH & 4
OWN 46
0
23.8%
Matthew Shipley punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Lawrence Dixon at the NMxSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 7FUMBLE TD2 plays · -18 yds · 0:4524% → 20%
Q2 14:16
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
24.0%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Jared Wyatt for 5 yds to the NMxSt 28Similar
Q2 13:31
2ND & 5
OWN 28
0
19.7%
Jonah Johnson run for 23 yds Jonah Johnson fumbled, forced by Quentin Frazier, recovered by Hawa Cameron Lockridge for a TD, (Matthew Shipley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 8TD6 plays · 71 yds · 2:0420% → 27%
Q2 13:31
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
19.4%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Cole Harrity for 5 yds to the NMxSt 30Similar
Q2 13:31
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+59
19.5%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Jared Wyatt for 52 yds to the NEWMEXST 18 for a 1ST down HAWAII Penalty, Horse Collar Tackle (Cameron Lockridge) to the Hawa 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
26.9%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Robert Downs III for 6 yds for a TD, (Ethan Albertson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 9FUMBLE5 plays · 12 yds · 1:0876% → 76%
Q2 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
24.5%
PENALTY HAW Delay Of Game (Cordeiro,Chevan) 5 yards from HAW25 to HAW20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:27
1ST & 15
OWN 20
-2
24.7%
Chevan Cordeiro sacked by Chris Ojoh for a loss of 2 yards to the Hawa 18Similar
Q2 10:19
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+5
24.5%
Dae Dae Hunter run for 5 yds to the Hawa 37 Dae Dae Hunter fumbled, forced by Nick Giacolone, recovered by NMxSt Syrus DumasSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 10FG6 plays · 36 yds · 2:2127% → 30%
Q2 10:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
27.2%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Isaiah Garcia-Castaneda for 2 yds to the Hawa 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 11INT7 plays · 56 yds · 1:4272% → 74%
Q2 7:58
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+26
28.4%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Calvin Turner Jr. for 26 yds to the NMxSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:58
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-5
26.4%
Cordeiro,Chevan pass complete to Parson,Dedrick for 0 yards to the NMS49 (Ojoh,Chris) PENALTY HAW Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Fiso,Steven) 5 yards from NMS49 to HAW46. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 12FG15 plays · 61 yds · 5:3229% → 37%
Q2 6:16
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+18
29.8%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Thomaz Whitford for 18 yds to the Hawa 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:16
2ND & 8
OPP 40
+12
31.6%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Jared Wyatt for 12 yds to the Hawa 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:44
3RD & 6
OPP 24
+12
34.5%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Jared Wyatt for 12 yds to the Hawa 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:44
3RD & 8
OPP 10
0
34.5%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Jared Wyatt for no gain to the Hawa 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 13END OF HALF7 plays · 40 yds · 0:4466% → 70%
HAWDrive 14PUNT8 plays · 27 yds · 2:5367% → 66%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-8
32.7%
Chevan Cordeiro sacked by Chris Ojoh for a loss of 8 yards to the Hawa 22Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 18
OWN 22
-8
33.5%
Chevan Cordeiro sacked by Donavan King for a loss of 8 yards to the Hawa 14Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 26
OWN 14
+37
34.5%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Jared Smart for 37 yds to the NMxSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+6
30.8%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Zion Bowens for 6 yds to the NMxSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 15PUNT4 plays · 9 yds · 1:5837% → 37%
HAWDrive 16PUNT6 plays · -2 yds · 1:2964% → 60%
Q3 10:09
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+4
35.0%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Calvin Turner Jr. for 4 yds to the Hawa 39Similar
Q3 10:09
3RD & 2
OWN 39
-5
34.1%
PENALTY HAW False Start (Pryor,Gene) 5 yards from HAW39 to HAW34. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:09
3RD & 7
OWN 34
-5
36.6%
PENALTY HAW False Start (Tanuvasa,Eliki) 5 yards from HAW34 to HAW29. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:40
4TH & 12
OWN 29
+8
39.6%
Matthew Shipley punt for 46 yds , Lawrence Dixon returns for 8 yds to the NMxSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 17FUMBLE8 plays · 5 yds · 3:3840% → 45%
Q3 8:40
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-5
43.4%
PENALTY NMS False Start (Doxtater,Sage) 5 yards from HAW48 to NMS47. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:40
3RD & 3
OPP 41
-5
43.1%
PENALTY NMS False Start (Omerhi,Doro) 5 yards from HAW41 to HAW46. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:02
3RD & 8
OPP 46
-16
44.7%
Jonah Johnson sacked by Khoury Bethley for a loss of 16 yards to the NMxSt 38 Jonah Johnson fumbled, recovered by Hawa Khoury Bethley , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 18TD9 plays · 38 yds · 2:3865% → 67%
Q3 5:02
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+16
35.3%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Nick Mardner for 16 yds to the NMxSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:37
3RD & 7
OPP 19
+7
33.9%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Calvin Turner Jr. for 7 yds to the NMxSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:37
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-5
32.2%
PENALTY HAW False Start (Tanuvasa,Eliki) 5 yards from NMS12 to NMS17. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:37
1ST & 15
OPP 17
+13
32.7%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Nick Mardner for 13 yds to the NMxSt 4Similar
Q3 4:37
2ND & 2
OPP 4
+3
32.2%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Dedrick Parson for 3 yds to the NMxSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 19PUNT8 plays · 11 yds · 1:5041% → 38%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 20TD4 plays · 50 yds · 0:4966% → 68%
Q4 14:11
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
32.4%
Calvin Turner Jr. run for 14 yds for a TD, (Matthew Shipley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 21TD10 plays · 85 yds · 3:4641% → 51%
Q4 14:06
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+26
40.7%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Thomaz Whitford for 26 yds to the NMxSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:06
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+11
45.3%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Jared Wyatt for 11 yds to the Hawa 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:06
4TH & 9
OPP 29
+24
42.5%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Thomaz Whitford for 24 yds to the Hawa 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 22FG9 plays · 51 yds · 3:2861% → 63%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 23DOWNS14 plays · 14 yds · 3:5145% → 41%
Q4 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
44.5%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to O'Maury Samuels for 2 yds to the NMxSt 19Similar
Q4 6:45
2ND & 12
OWN 19
+6
43.6%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Isaiah Garcia-Castaneda for 6 yds to the NMxSt 25Similar
Q4 6:45
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+5
48.3%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Andre Bodison for 5 yds to the NMxSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:45
3RD & 10
OPP 43
-10
49.3%
Johnson,Jonah pass incomplete to Garcia-Castaneda,Isaiah broken up by Frazier,Quentin PENALTY NMS Holding (Omerhi,Doro) 10 yards from HAW43 to NMS47. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:45
3RD & 20
OWN 47
0
43.5%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Jonah Johnson) to the NMxSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 24TD6 plays · 35 yds · 1:0272% → 79%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 25INT8 plays · 41 yds · 1:2339% → 50%
Q4 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
38.8%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Jared Wyatt for 9 yds to the NMxSt 34Similar
Q4 1:52
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+8
42.9%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Jared Wyatt for 8 yds to the NMxSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
43.7%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Isaiah Garcia-Castaneda for 6 yds to the NMxSt 48Similar
Q4 1:19
2ND & 4
OWN 48
+13
49.0%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Terrell Warner for 13 yds to the Hawa 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:19
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
50.7%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to O'Maury Samuels for 5 yds to the Hawa 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 26END OF 4TH QUARTER1 play · -2 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 11:27
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Robert Downs III for 6 yds for a TD, (Ethan Albertson KICK)
+6.2
TD · Q4 14:06
Kyler Halvorsen kickoff for 65 yds , Juwaun Price return for 25 yds to the NMxSt 15
+5.2
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-4.8