Hawai'i

Profile vs. FBS, 2025

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.1253rd
  Defense+0.1144th
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense41.2%36th
  Defense41.7%49th
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.3279th
  Defense+1.2834th
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense−0.093rd
  Defense+0.0939th
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.2669th
  Defense+0.1652nd
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense45.1%26th
  Defense47.1%47th
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense33.4%79th
  Defense31.0%36th
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense2.8030th
  Defense3.2112th
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense20.2%28th
  Defense15.8%15th
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense12.2%89th
  Defense16.0%55th

Percentiles among the 136 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2025

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Hawai'i allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. W
   STAN
2. L
   ARIZ
3. W
   SHSU
4. W
   PRST
5. L
   FRES
6. W
   AF
7. W
   USU
8. W
   CSU
9. L
   SJSU
10. W
    SDSU
11. L
    UNLV
12. W
    WYO
13. W
    CAL

Bars above the line: better than expected for Hawai'i.

Players, 2025

1. Micah AlejadoQB451 plays · +0.234 pts/play · 16th of 231 QBs
   1.98WAR1.11 to 2.77
2. Jackson HarrisWR64 plays · +0.299 pts/play · 8th of 451 WRs
   0.36WAR0.20 to 0.53
3. Pofele AshlockWR96 plays · +0.154 pts/play · 31st of 451 WRs
   0.28WAR0.12 to 0.46
4. Landon SimsRB140 plays · +0.092 pts/play · 81st of 365 RBs
   0.24WAR0.16 to 0.33
5. Cam BarfieldRB96 plays · +0.107 pts/play · 116th of 365 RBs
   0.19WAR0.14 to 0.26
6. Luke WeaverQB52 plays · +0.143 pts/play · 183rd of 231 QBs
   0.14WAR0.04 to 0.23
7. Kansei MatsuzawaPK22 plays · +0.330 pts/play · 6th of 112 kickers
   0.14WAR0.08 to 0.18
8. Karsyn PupunuWR36 plays · +0.056 pts/play · 346th of 451 WRs
   0.04WAR−0.01 to 0.08

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Hawai'i's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2025

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  481481120th of 134Roster talent: 481, 120th of 134 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  109109123rd of 134Recruiting: 109, 123rd of 134 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  46%46%46th of 132Returning production: 46%, 46th of 132 in FBS
• SP+ rating

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  +1.7+1.767th of 134SP+ rating: +1.7, 67th of 134 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 134 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2025

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Hawai'i's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 7 clear-cut ones account for 0.11 of the 0.17 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. vs SHSUQ4 3:01 4th & 1 at SHSU 1, up 7Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−2.0 pts
2. vs USUQ2 8:19 4th & 14 at HAW 21, tiedWent for it; the numbers favored punting−1.9 pts
3. vs SHSUQ2 0:00 4th & 1 at SHSU 20, up 8Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−1.9 pts
4. vs SDSUQ3 10:37 4th & 1 at midfield, up 25Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.8 pts
5. at SJSUQ4 1:16 4th & 6 at SJSU 6, down 10Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−1.3 pts
6. at AFQ4 11:14 4th & 3 at AF 21, up 10Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−1.3 pts
7. at CSUQ2 1:55 4th & 2 at HAW 47, up 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.2 pts
8. vs WYOQ3 0:51 4th & 1 at WYO 12, up 20Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.9 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2025

9th of 136 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Hawai'i's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. W

   STAN
2. L

   ARIZ
3. W

   SHSU
4. W

   PRST
5. L

   FRES
6. W

   AF
7. W

   USU
8. W

   CSU
9. L

   SJSU
10. W

    SDSU
11. L

    UNLV
12. W

    WYO
13. W

    CAL

What moved it, 2025

Every game starts at Hawai'i's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard+1.25
• Clock+0.04
• Timeouts−0.09
• Other−0.01
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff+0.29

Game by game

• STANW 23-20 vs STAN52% → 0%Before kickoff +2 · On the field −52: Scoreboard −39, Timeouts −14
• ARIZL 6-40 at ARIZ14% → 0%Before kickoff −36 · On the field −14: Scoreboard −17
• SHSUW 37-20 vs SHSU70% → 98%Before kickoff +20 · On the field +28: Scoreboard +31, Possession & field position −1
• PRSTW 23-3 vs PRST99% → 99%Before kickoff +49 · On the field +1: Scoreboard +4
• FRESL 21-23 vs FRES45% → 11%Before kickoff −5 · On the field −35: Scoreboard −46, Clock −3
• AFW 44-35 at AF33% → 96%Before kickoff −17 · On the field +63: Scoreboard +56, Clock +2
• USUW 44-26 vs USU46% → 99%Before kickoff −4 · On the field +53: Scoreboard +46, Timeouts −1
• CSUW 31-19 at CSU41% → 98%Before kickoff −9 · On the field +57: Scoreboard +54, Clock +3
• SJSUL 38-45 at SJSU43% → 8%Before kickoff −7 · On the field −36: Scoreboard −35, Timeouts +3
• SDSUW 38-6 vs SDSU35% → 100%Before kickoff −15 · On the field +65: Scoreboard +57
• UNLVL 10-38 at UNLV44% → 0%Before kickoff −6 · On the field −44: Scoreboard −43
• WYOW 27-7 vs WYO67% → 100%Before kickoff +17 · On the field +33: Scoreboard +34, Timeouts +1
• CALW 35-31 vs CAL55% → 83%Before kickoff +5 · On the field +28: Scoreboard +23, Timeouts −4

Points of win probability, from Hawai'i's side.

Closest call

STAN 20-23 HAW (2025) - Hawai'i dropped to a 0.3% win probability before pulling it out.