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Win probability · AF
modelAF aheadHAW aheadconfidence bandkey playAF scoreHAW score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 11:14 · Kansei Matsuzawa 39 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q3 12:33: Kade Frew run for 11 yds for a TD (Jacob Medina KICK) — AF win probability +18.9 pts (now 60%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
- TD · Q3 2:44: Landon Sims run for 1 yd for a TD (Kansei Matsuzawa KICK) — HAW win probability +16.6 pts (now 74%) (top driver: HAW has the ball).
- TD · Q4 14:55: Cam Barfield run for 27 yds for a TD (Kansei Matsuzawa KICK) — HAW win probability +16.7 pts (now 90%) (top driver: HAW has the ball).
- TD · Q4 5:58: Kemper Hodges run for 2 yds for a TD (Jacob Medina KICK) — AF win probability +23.4 pts (now 36%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
- TD · Q4 4:30: Liam Szarka pass complete to Quin Smith for 34 yds for a TD (Jacob Medina KICK) — AF win probability +26.1 pts (now 33%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
AF made the numbers' call on 2 of 3HAW made the numbers' call on 3 of 5
- Q1 1:03AF 4th & 4 at HAW 9, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 62.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call61.9%43% to convertField goal61.7%−0.389% to makePunt57.5%−4.4average punt
- Q2 3:49HAW 4th & 13 at AF 13, up 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 48.6% before the snapGo for it46.4%−1.817% to convertField goalTheir call48.1%85% to makePunt41.8%−6.4average punt
- Q2 2:21AF 4th & 2 at AF 33, down 10Close callPunted · 46.4% before the snapGo for it46.6%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call46.1%−0.5average punt
- Q2 1:00HAW 4th & 6 at AF 49, up 10Close callPunted · 54.8% before the snapGo for it54.5%40% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call54.4%−0.1average punt
- Q3 9:21HAW 4th & 2 at AF 44, up 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 47.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call48.4%57% to convertField goal44.1%−4.427% to makePunt46.2%−2.2average punt
- Q3 7:33AF 4th & 3 at HAW 45, down 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 56.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call57.3%52% to convertField goal53.5%−3.825% to makePunt55.8%−1.6average punt
- Q4 11:14HAW 4th & 3 at AF 21, up 10Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsKicked a field goal · 78.7% before the snapGo for it78.6%51% to convertField goalTheir call77.3%−1.374% to makePunt66.5%−12.1average punt
- Q4 0:34HAW 4th & 7 at AF 7, up 6Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 89.5% before the snapGo for it88.6%−0.928% to convertField goalTheir call89.5%91% to makePunt84.3%−5.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
AF made the numbers' call on 4 of 5HAW made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
- Q1 11:25HAW Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call32.4%97% to makeGo for two32.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 9:16AF Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call68.3%97% to makeGo for two68.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 6:11HAW Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call34.7%97% to makeGo for two34.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 12:33AF Touchdown, down 4 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call55.8%97% to makeGo for two55.7%−0.245% to convert
- Q3 2:44HAW Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call67.8%97% to makeGo for two67.6%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 14:55HAW Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call84.2%97% to makeGo for two84.1%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 14:04AF Touchdown, down 11 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call26.2%97% to makeGo for two25.9%−0.345% to convert
- Q4 5:58AF Touchdown, down 7 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call20.9%−0.197% to makeGo for two20.9%45% to convert
- Q4 5:06HAW Touchdown, up 12 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call91.5%−0.897% to makeGo for two92.3%45% to convert
- Q4 4:30AF Touchdown, down 7 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call17.3%97% to makeGo for two17.3%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartHAWDrive 1TD7 plays · 75 yds · 3:2633% → 35%
Q1 13:28
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+5
66.5%
Micah Alejado pass complete to Jackson Harris for 5 yds to the HAW 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:44
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+59
66.3%
Micah Alejado pass complete to Cam Barfield for 59 yds to the AF 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
64.6%
Micah Alejado pass complete to Jackson Harris for 6 yds for a TD (Kansei Matsuzawa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 2TD5 plays · 74 yds · 1:5365% → 67%
Q1 9:16
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
66.7%
Liam Szarka pass complete to Bruin Fleischmann for 5 yds for a TD (Jacob Medina KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 3TD7 plays · 75 yds · 2:5134% → 39%
Q1 9:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
66.0%
Micah Alejado pass complete to Tama Uiliata for 6 yds to the HAW 31Similar
Q1 8:38
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+14
65.5%
Micah Alejado pass complete to Pofele Ashlock for 14 yds to the HAW 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+24
65.2%
Micah Alejado pass complete to Landon Sims for 24 yds to the AF 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:11
3RD & 3
OPP 24
+24
61.4%
Micah Alejado pass complete to Brandon White for 24 yds for a TD (Kansei Matsuzawa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 4DOWNS11 plays · 68 yds · 4:5062% → 60%
Q1 4:56
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+29
62.5%
Liam Szarka pass complete to Tre Roberson for 29 yds to the HAW 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 5FG28 plays · 80 yds · 12:0941% → 52%
Q1 0:00
3RD & 10
OWN 7
+11
59.3%
Micah Alejado pass complete to Brandon White for 11 yds to the HAW 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+5
58.5%
Micah Alejado pass complete to Tama Uiliata for 5 yds to the HAW 23Similar
Q2 14:23
2ND & 5
OWN 23
+6
57.9%
Micah Alejado pass complete to Tama Uiliata for 6 yds to the HAW 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:09
2ND & 13
OWN 26
+12
57.6%
Micah Alejado pass complete to Blaze Kamoku for 12 yds to the HAW 38Similar
Q2 11:01
3RD & 6
OWN 45
+7
55.0%
Micah Alejado pass complete to Tama Uiliata for 7 yds to the AF 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:58
2ND & 9
OPP 47
+7
53.5%
Micah Alejado pass complete to Karsyn Pupunu for 7 yds to the AF 40Similar
Q2 9:06
3RD & 2
OPP 40
+7
53.0%
Micah Alejado pass complete to Pofele Ashlock for 7 yds to the AF 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:53
2ND & 3
OPP 26
+2
50.4%
Micah Alejado pass complete to Cam Barfield for 2 yds to the AF 28Similar
Q2 7:18
3RD & 5
OPP 28
+7
50.4%
Micah Alejado pass complete to Cam Barfield for 7 yds to the AF 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:40
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+2
49.4%
Micah Alejado pass complete to Brandon White for 2 yds to the AF 19Similar
Q2 5:13
3RD & 12
OPP 23
+14
49.1%
Micah Alejado pass complete to Jackson Harris for 14 yds to the AF 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-10
47.9%
(04:39) Shotgun Alejado,Micah pass complete short left to Harris,Jackson caught at AF02, for 9 yards to the AF00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 04:37 PENALTY UH Holding (Kaio,Judah) 10 yards from AF09 to AF19. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 6PUNT5 plays · 8 yds · 1:1946% → 45%
Q2 2:21
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+14
44.7%
Luke Freer punt for 55 yds , Tama Uiliata returns for 14 yds to the HAW 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 7PUNT7 plays · 25 yds · 1:1455% → 57%
Q2 1:55
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+18
44.1%
Micah Alejado pass complete to Pofele Ashlock for 18 yds to the HAW 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 8END OF HALF2 plays · 9 yds · 0:5442% → 41%
AFDrive 9TD6 plays · 75 yds · 2:2043% → 60%
Q3 13:03
2ND & 11
OWN 37
+52
41.3%
Liam Szarka pass complete to Quin Smith for 52 yds to the HAW 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 10DOWNS9 plays · 27 yds · 2:5246% → 49%
Q3 12:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
54.4%
Micah Alejado pass complete to Jackson Harris for 9 yds to the HAW 34Similar
Q3 11:58
2ND & 1
OWN 34
-5
52.8%
(12:00) Shotgun Alejado,Micah pass incomplete short left to Ashlock,Pofele thrown to UH35 broken up by Elie-Stuart,Jordan PENALTY UH Ineligible Downfield on Pass 5 yards from UH34 to UH29. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:03
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+21
55.0%
Micah Alejado pass complete to Jackson Harris for 21 yds to the HAW 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:55
3RD & 9
OWN 49
+7
50.5%
Micah Alejado pass complete to Tama Uiliata for 7 yds to the AF 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 11DOWNS5 plays · 7 yds · 1:4158% → 55%
Q3 9:14
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-5
57.6%
(09:19) No Huddle Szarka,Liam pass incomplete deep right to Roberson,Tre thrown to UH28 PENALTY AF Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Elwood,Nathan) 5 yards from AF48 to AF43. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 12TD10 plays · 55 yds · 4:4252% → 74%
Q3 7:13
3RD & 10
OWN 45
+11
50.0%
Micah Alejado pass complete to Tama Uiliata for 11 yds to the AF 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:37
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+8
47.3%
Micah Alejado pass complete to Karsyn Pupunu for 8 yds to the AF 36Similar
Q3 5:55
2ND & 2
OPP 36
+13
46.4%
Micah Alejado pass complete to Koa Eldredge for 13 yds to the AF 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:38
2ND & 8
OPP 21
+4
43.5%
Micah Alejado pass complete to Brandon White for 4 yds to the AF 17Similar
Q3 3:55
3RD & 4
OPP 17
+13
44.8%
Micah Alejado pass complete to Landon Sims for 13 yds to the AF 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
42.7%
Micah Alejado pass complete to Brandon White for 3 yds to the AF 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 13INT4 plays · 16 yds · 1:1229% → 30%
Q3 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-14
30.1%
Liam Szarka pass intercepted Matagi Thompson return for 14 yds to the AF 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 14TD4 plays · 37 yds · 1:1774% → 90%
Q3 1:12
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+5
25.8%
Micah Alejado pass complete to Brandon White for 5 yds to the AF 32Similar
Q3 0:39
2ND & 5
OPP 32
-10
24.5%
Hawai'i Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Micah Alejado) to the AF 42Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 15
OPP 42
+15
26.5%
Micah Alejado pass complete to Jackson Harris for 15 yds to the AF 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 15TD3 plays · 75 yds · 0:4214% → 26%
HAWDrive 16FG10 plays · 21 yds · 2:4675% → 89%
Q4 13:03
3RD & 9
OPP 41
+13
24.2%
Micah Alejado pass complete to Pofele Ashlock for 13 yds to the AF 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 17TD13 plays · 75 yds · 5:0718% → 36%
Q4 10:06
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-9
15.5%
Liam Szarka sacked by Qwyn Williams for a loss of 9 yards to the AF 28Similar
Q4 8:38
3RD & 21
OWN 26
+24
11.2%
Liam Szarka pass complete to Quin Smith for 24 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:57
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+14
14.0%
Liam Szarka pass complete to Bruin Fleischmann for 14 yds to the HAW 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-5
13.8%
PENALTY AF False Start (Falk,Alec) 5 yards from UH04 to UH09. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
12.5%
Hawai'i Penalty, Face Mask (2 yards) (2 Yards) to the HAW 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 18TD4 plays · 75 yds · 0:4780% → 94%
AFDrive 19TD3 plays · 75 yds · 0:247% → 33%
HAWDrive 20FG18 plays · 67 yds · 3:4984% → 96%
Q4 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+15
16.0%
(04:26) Shotgun Barfield,Cam rush right for 3 yards loss to the UH23 (Fisher,Luke; Fletcher,Blake) PENALTY AF Personal Foul (Perez,Alexander) 15 yards from UH26 to UH41, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+16
12.6%
Micah Alejado pass complete to Devon Tauaefa for 16 yds to the AF 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:33
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+12
8.8%
Micah Alejado pass complete to Blaze Kamoku for 12 yds to the AF 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:20
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
4.1%
PENALTY AF Delay Of Game (Zdroik,Payton) 2 yards from AF03 to AF01. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 4:30
Liam Szarka pass complete to Quin Smith for 34 yds for a TD (Jacob Medina KICK)
+26.1
TD · Q4 5:58
Kemper Hodges run for 2 yds for a TD (Jacob Medina KICK)
+23.4
TD · Q3 12:33
Kade Frew run for 11 yds for a TD (Jacob Medina KICK)
+18.9