Try the model
STAN

Stanford 20 at Hawai'i 23

HAW
2025 · Week 1 · Aug 23, 2025 · Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · HAW
modelHAW aheadSTAN aheadconfidence bandkey playHAW scoreSTAN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4Q3Q4FGTDTDFGTDTDFGFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 8:41 · Micah Alejado pass complete to Landon Sims for 1 yd to the STAN 35
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseOffense timeoutsDefense timeoutsScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+48.5+24.30−24.3−48.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Q3Q4Play 56Home team on offense−11.6Offense timeouts−9.5Defense timeouts−7.6Score differential−5.4Garbage-time factor−3.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 7:08: Wilfredo Aybar 0 Yd Fumble Return (Emmet Kenney Kick) — STAN win probability +0.9 pts (now 60%) (top driver: offense timeouts not recorded for this play).
  2. TD · Q1 2:19: Pofele Ashlock 3 Yd pass from Micah Alejado (Kansei Matsuzawa Kick) — STAN win probability +1.3 pts (now 65%) (top driver: offense timeouts not recorded for this play).
  3. FG · Q2 3:39: Emmet Kenney 46 Yd Field Goal — HAW win probability +2.2 pts (now 19%) (top driver: STAN has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 0:48: Jackson Harris 19 Yd pass from Micah Alejado (Kansei Matsuzawa Kick) — STAN win probability +0.6 pts (now 87%) (top driver: offense timeouts not recorded for this play).
  5. FG · Q3 6:25: Kansei Matsuzawa 40 Yd Field Goal — STAN win probability +3.1 pts (now 94%) (top driver: HAW has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
HAW made the numbers' call on 5 of 7STAN made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
  1. Q1 8:45STAN 4th & 1 at HAW 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 44.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    44.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    43.8%−0.3
    77% to make
    Punt
    42.9%−1.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:14STAN 4th & 5 at HAW 5, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 44.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.0%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    44.0%
    92% to make
    Punt
    42.6%−1.4
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:38HAW 4th & 2 at HAW 33, down 17
    Close callPunted · 46.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:45STAN 4th & 13 at STAN 17, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.6%−1.5
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.1%
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:59STAN 4th & 4 at HAW 16, up 17
    Close callKicked a field goal · 65.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.7%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    64.5%−0.2
    81% to make
    Punt
    57.2%−7.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:41HAW 4th & 3 at STAN 36, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 37.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    37.4%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    36.0%−1.3
    42% to make
    Punt
    35.7%−1.6
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:39STAN 4th & 22 at HAW 28, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 70.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.2%−3.3
    8% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    70.4%
    60% to make
    Punt
    64.0%−6.5
    average punt
  8. Q4 12:44STAN 4th & 1 at HAW 20, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 91.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    91.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    89.8%−1.5
    75% to make
    Punt
    85.1%−6.1
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:25HAW 4th & 14 at HAW 37, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.8%−2.0
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.8%
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:49STAN 4th & 7 at STAN 18, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.6%−1.6
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.2%
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:25HAW 4th & 9 at STAN 22, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 20.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.1%−1.2
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    20.3%
    72% to make
    Punt
    13.1%−7.2
    average punt
  12. Q3 5:19STAN 4th & 7 at STAN 30, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.5%−0.9
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.4%
    average punt
  13. Q3 4:18HAW 4th & 5 at HAW 41, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.0%−0.9
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.9%
    average punt
  14. Q4 8:42HAW 4th & 8 at HAW 27, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.6%−0.5
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.1%
    average punt
  15. Q4 2:01HAW 4th & 4 at STAN 19, down 17
    Close callKicked a field goal · 3.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.7%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    2.5%−0.1
    77% to make
    Punt
    1.9%−0.8
    average punt
  16. Q4 1:43STAN 4th & 7 at STAN 28, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.8%−0.2
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.0%
    average punt
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
STANDrive 1FG
17 plays · 70 yds · 7:4548% → 57%
Q1 14:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
51.8%
Micah Ford run for 2 yds to the STAN 27Similar
Q1 14:24
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
51.1%
pass incomplete to Micah FordSimilar
Q1 14:19
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+16
51.0%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to C.J. Williams for 16 yds to the STAN 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:46
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+9
50.2%
Cole Tabb run for 9 yds to the HAW 48Similar
Q1 13:11
2ND & 1
OPP 48
0
49.4%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Sam Roush for no gain to the HAW 48Similar
Q1 12:20
3RD & 1
OPP 48
+4
48.3%
Micah Ford run for 4 yds to the HAW 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:34
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+16
47.2%
Micah Ford run for 16 yds to the HAW 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:53
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+3
46.4%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Sam Roush for 3 yds to the HAW 25Similar
Q1 10:25
2ND & 7
OPP 25
+2
45.7%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Cole Tabb for 2 yds to the HAW 23Similar
Q1 9:24
3RD & 5
OPP 23
+4
44.7%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Caden High for 4 yds to the HAW 19Similar
Q1 8:45
4TH & 1
OPP 19
+3
45.2%
Micah Ford run for 3 yds to the HAW 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:09
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+8
43.7%
Ben Gulbranson pass incomplete to Jonanthony Hall for a 1ST down Hawai'i Penalty, personal foul (Jamar Sekona) to the HAW 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
43.6%
Micah Ford run for 3 yds to the HAW 5Similar
Q1 7:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
42.7%
pass incomplete to Sam RoushSimilar
Q1 7:23
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
43.0%
pass incomplete to Jordan OnovugheSimilar
Q1 7:14
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+23
42.8%
Emmet Kenney 23 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 2FUMBLE RETURN TD
2 plays · 99 yds · 0:0040% → 40%
Q1 7:08
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
40.1%
Wilfredo Aybar 0 Yd Fumble Return (Emmet Kenney Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:3040% → 37%
Q1 7:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
40.2%
pass incomplete to Karsyn PupunuSimilar
Q1 7:03
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-2
40.0%
Landon Sims run for a loss of 2 yards to the HAW 23Similar
Q1 6:25
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+10
39.0%
Micah Alejado pass complete to Cam Barfield for 10 yds to the HAW 33Similar
Q1 5:38
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
37.2%
Billy Gowers punt for 67 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:4460% → 61%
Q1 5:29
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
39.8%
Micah Ford run for 2 yds to the STAN 22Similar
Q1 5:09
2ND & 8
OWN 22
0
39.5%
pass incomplete to Micah FordSimilar
Q1 4:53
3RD & 8
OWN 22
0
39.4%
Ben Gulbranson pass incomplete to Sam Roush, broken up by Elijah PalmerSimilar
Q1 4:48
4TH & 8
OWN 22
-5
39.6%
Stanford Penalty, delay of game (Jahsiah Galvan) to the STAN 17Similar
Q1 4:45
4TH & 13
OWN 17
0
39.5%
punt for 41 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 5TD
6 plays · 58 yds · 2:2237% → 35%
Q1 4:41
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
37.2%
Micah Alejado pass complete to Nick Cenacle for 4 yds to the HAW 46Similar
Q1 4:19
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+4
36.6%
Micah Alejado pass complete to Pofele Ashlock for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 4:00
3RD & 2
50
+13
35.7%
Micah Alejado pass complete to Brandon White for 13 yds to the STAN 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:39
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+30
36.4%
Micah Alejado run for 30 yds to the STAN 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
36.2%
Micah Alejado run for 4 yds to the STAN 3Similar
Q1 2:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
35.0%
Pofele Ashlock 3 Yd pass from Micah Alejado (Kansei Matsuzawa Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 6MISSED FG
14 plays · 64 yds · 6:0966% → 72%
Q1 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
34.3%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Cole Tabb for 6 yds to the STAN 26Similar
Q1 1:31
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+6
33.9%
Cole Tabb run for 6 yds to the STAN 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+9
33.5%
Cole Tabb run for 9 yds to the STAN 41Similar
Q1 0:12
2ND & 1
OWN 41
+2
32.2%
Micah Ford run for 2 yds to the STAN 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+8
32.4%
Sedrick Irvin run for 8 yds to the HAW 49Similar
Q2 14:25
2ND & 2
OPP 49
+18
31.0%
Sedrick Irvin run for 3 yds to the HAW 46 Hawai'i Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Luther McCoy) to the HAW 31Similar
Q2 13:57
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+4
30.9%
Sedrick Irvin run for 4 yds to the HAW 27Similar
Q2 13:24
2ND & 6
OPP 27
+3
30.5%
Sedrick Irvin run for 3 yds to the HAW 24Similar
Q2 12:32
3RD & 3
OPP 24
+2
29.8%
Ben Gulbranson pass incomplete to Jonanthony Hall for a 1ST down Hawai'i Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Jalen Smith) to the HAW 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:27
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
28.9%
Cole Tabb run for 2 yds to the HAW 20Similar
Q2 11:50
2ND & 8
OPP 20
+3
28.6%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to C.J. Williams for 3 yds to the HAW 17Similar
Q2 11:15
3RD & 5
OPP 17
+1
27.6%
Ben Gulbranson run for 1 yd to the HAW 16 Stanford Penalty, Offensive holding (Ziron Brown) to the HAW 16Similar
Q2 10:59
4TH & 4
OPP 16
+34
28.5%
Emmet Kenney 34 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 7DOWNS
7 plays · 45 yds · 2:1422% → 17%
Q2 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
22.1%
Cam Barfield run for 6 yds to the HAW 26Similar
Q2 10:32
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+5
19.9%
Micah Alejado pass complete to Nick Cenacle for 5 yds to the HAW 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:53
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+26
19.3%
Micah Alejado pass complete to Pofele Ashlock for 11 yds to the STAN 42 Stanford Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Sam Mattingly) to the STAN 43Similar
Q2 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
19.8%
pass incomplete to Jackson HarrisSimilar
Q2 9:21
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+7
19.5%
Micah Alejado pass complete to Karsyn Pupunu for 7 yds to the STAN 36Similar
Q2 8:47
3RD & 3
OPP 36
0
17.9%
pass incomplete to Karsyn PupunuSimilar
Q2 8:41
4TH & 3
OPP 36
+1
17.0%
Micah Alejado pass complete to Landon Sims for 1 yd to the STAN 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 8FG
11 plays · 37 yds · 4:5777% → 81%
Q2 8:36
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
23.5%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Micah Ford for 4 yds to the STAN 39Similar
Q2 7:58
2ND & 6
OWN 39
0
23.2%
Micah Ford run for no gain to the STAN 39Similar
Q2 7:21
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+15
22.8%
Ben Gulbranson sacked by De'Jon Benton for 0 yards to the HAW 39 for a 1ST down Hawai'i Penalty, roughing passer (De'Jon Benton) to the HAW 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:58
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+11
21.6%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to C.J. Williams for 11 yds to the HAW 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:20
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
21.1%
Micah Ford run for 4 yds to the HAW 31Similar
Q2 5:45
2ND & 6
OPP 31
+4
20.5%
Micah Ford run for 4 yds to the HAW 27Similar
Q2 5:07
3RD & 2
OPP 27
+11
20.7%
Micah Ford run for 11 yds to the HAW 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+1
17.1%
Micah Ford run for 1 yd to the HAW 15Similar
Q2 3:54
2ND & 9
OPP 15
0
15.9%
Ben Gulbranson pass incomplete to Sam Roush, broken up by Kilinahe Mendiola-JensenSimilar
Q2 3:50
3RD & 9
OPP 15
-13
16.4%
Ben Gulbranson sacked for a loss of 13 yards to the HAW 28 Stanford Penalty, intentional grounding (Ben Gulbranson) to the HAW 28Similar
Q2 3:39
4TH & 22
OPP 28
+46
18.6%
Emmet Kenney 46 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 9TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 2:5017% → 14%
Q2 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
17.4%
Micah Alejado run for 4 yds to the HAW 29 for a 1ST down Stanford Penalty, personal foul (Matt Rose) to the HAW 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:19
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
18.5%
Christian Vaughn run for 3 yds to the HAW 47Similar
Q2 3:03
2ND & 7
OWN 47
+4
17.2%
Micah Alejado run for 4 yds to the STAN 49Similar
Q2 2:17
3RD & 3
OPP 49
+3
17.1%
Micah Alejado pass complete to Nick Cenacle for 3 yds to the STAN 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
13.6%
Landon Sims run for 2 yds to the STAN 44Similar
Q2 1:31
2ND & 8
OPP 44
+20
12.9%
Micah Alejado pass complete to Pofele Ashlock for 5 yds to the STAN 39 for a 1ST down Stanford Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Che Ojarikre) to the STAN 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:25
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+2
14.1%
Micah Alejado pass complete to Landon Sims for 2 yds to the STAN 19Similar
Q2 1:24
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
14.1%
Micah Alejado sacked by Clay Patterson for a loss of 12 yards to the STAN 36 for a 1ST down Stanford Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Clay Patterson) to the STAN 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:48
2ND & 8
OPP 19
+19
13.5%
Jackson Harris 19 Yd pass from Micah Alejado (Kansei Matsuzawa Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 10END OF HALF
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:0993% → 93%
Q2 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
6.7%
Ben Gulbranson pass incomplete to Sam Roush, broken up by Virdel Edwards IISimilar
Q2 0:30
2ND & 10
OWN 21
-2
6.6%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Micah Ford for a loss of 2 yards to the STAN 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 11TD
20 plays · 85 yds · 20:1387% → 97%
Q3 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 49
+7
13.2%
Sedrick Irvin run for 7 yds to the HAW 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
5.8%
Micah Ford run for 3 yds to the STAN 18Similar
Q3 3:38
2ND & 7
OWN 18
+6
5.4%
Micah Ford run for 6 yds to the STAN 24Similar
Q3 3:17
3RD & 1
OWN 24
+2
5.0%
Micah Ford run for 2 yds to the STAN 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+1
4.6%
Sedrick Irvin run for 1 yd to the STAN 27Similar
Q3 2:03
2ND & 9
OWN 27
+4
3.5%
Ben Gulbranson run for 4 yds to the STAN 31Similar
Q3 1:15
3RD & 5
OWN 31
+11
3.5%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Caden High for 11 yds to the STAN 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:37
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
3.0%
pass incomplete to Sedrick IrvinSimilar
Q3 0:31
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+7
3.0%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Myles Libman for 7 yds to the STAN 49Similar
Q4 14:59
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
2.7%
pass incomplete to Sedrick IrvinSimilar
Q4 14:48
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+15
2.7%
Sedrick Irvin run for 15 yds to the HAW 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:14
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
2.5%
Sedrick Irvin run for no gain to the HAW 29Similar
Q4 13:41
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+4
2.7%
Sedrick Irvin run for 4 yds to the HAW 25Similar
Q4 13:03
3RD & 6
OPP 25
+5
3.1%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Marcus Brown for 5 yds to the HAW 20Similar
Q4 12:44
4TH & 1
OPP 20
+1
3.4%
Sedrick Irvin run for 1 yd to the HAW 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:12
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+3
3.4%
Micah Ford run for 3 yds to the HAW 16Similar
Q4 11:41
2ND & 7
OPP 16
+4
3.3%
Micah Ford run for 4 yds to the HAW 12Similar
Q4 11:06
3RD & 3
OPP 12
+6
3.3%
Micah Ford run for 6 yds to the HAW 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
2.8%
Micah Ford run for 4 yds to the HAW 2Similar
Q4 9:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
3.1%
Micah Ford 2 Yd Run (Emmet Kenney Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 12PUNT
9 plays · 11 yds · 2:2718% → 10%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
17.8%
Cam Barfield run for 5 yds to the HAW 31Similar
Q3 14:25
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+10
15.2%
Micah Alejado pass complete to Jackson Harris for 10 yds to the HAW 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:49
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-5
17.6%
Hawai'i Penalty, false start (Ethan Spencer) to the HAW 36Similar
Q3 13:28
1ST & 15
OWN 36
+13
11.0%
Cam Barfield run for 13 yds to the HAW 49Similar
Q3 13:01
2ND & 2
OWN 49
-10
10.2%
Micah Alejado run for no gain to the HAW 49 Hawai'i Penalty, Offensive holding (Zhen Sotelo) to the HAW 39Similar
Q3 12:41
2ND & 12
OWN 39
-2
11.0%
Micah Alejado sacked by Matt Rose for a loss of 2 yards to the HAW 37Similar
Q3 12:30
3RD & 14
OWN 37
0
10.3%
Luke Weaver pass incomplete to Jackson Harris, broken up by Zach BuckeySimilar
Q3 12:25
4TH & 14
OWN 37
+4
10.2%
Billy Gowers punt for 52 yds , Bryce Farrell returns for 4 yds to the STAN 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:2988% → 89%
Q3 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
12.0%
Micah Ford run for 3 yds to the STAN 18Similar
Q3 11:40
2ND & 7
OWN 18
0
10.9%
Micah Ford run for no gain to the STAN 18Similar
Q3 10:56
3RD & 7
OWN 18
0
10.7%
pass incomplete to Micah FordSimilar
Q3 10:49
4TH & 7
OWN 18
0
10.9%
Aidan Flintoft punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 14FG
11 plays · 36 yds · 4:1610% → 6%
Q3 10:41
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+11
9.6%
Cam Barfield run for 11 yds to the STAN 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:19
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+8
8.7%
Cam Barfield run for 8 yds to the STAN 39Similar
Q3 9:58
2ND & 2
OPP 39
+4
8.4%
Micah Alejado pass complete to Devon Tauaefa for 4 yds to the STAN 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:39
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
8.8%
Micah Alejado pass complete to Pofele Ashlock for 5 yds to the STAN 30Similar
Q3 9:20
2ND & 5
OPP 30
-8
9.0%
Cam Barfield run for 2 yds to the STAN 28 Hawai'i Penalty, Offensive holding (James Milovale) to the STAN 38Similar
Q3 9:20
2ND & 13
OPP 38
+5
8.2%
Landon Sims run for 5 yds to the STAN 33Similar
Q3 9:20
3RD & 8
OPP 33
+10
8.1%
Micah Alejado pass complete to Pofele Ashlock for 10 yds to the STAN 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:20
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+1
9.3%
Landon Sims run for 1 yd to the STAN 22Similar
Q3 9:20
2ND & 9
OPP 22
0
9.1%
pass incomplete to Jackson HarrisSimilar
Q3 9:20
3RD & 9
OPP 22
0
8.7%
pass incomplete to Nick CenacleSimilar
Q3 6:25
4TH & 9
OPP 22
+40
5.6%
Kansei Matsuzawa 40 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:5694% → 94%
Q3 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
5.8%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Sam Roush for 3 yds to the STAN 30Similar
Q3 5:31
2ND & 7
OWN 30
0
5.5%
Ben Gulbranson pass incomplete to C.J. Williams, broken up by Kilinahe Mendiola-JensenSimilar
Q3 5:24
3RD & 7
OWN 30
0
5.5%
pass incomplete to Caden HighSimilar
Q3 5:19
4TH & 7
OWN 30
0
5.6%
Aidan Flintoft punt for 34 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:514% → 4%
Q3 5:09
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
3.8%
pass incomplete to Brandon WhiteSimilar
Q3 5:03
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
3.8%
Landon Sims run for no gain to the HAW 36Similar
Q3 4:25
3RD & 10
OWN 36
0
3.9%
pass incomplete to Pofele AshlockSimilar
Q3 4:25
4TH & 10
OWN 36
+5
3.9%
Stanford Penalty, off-side (Ese Dubre) to the HAW 41Similar
Q3 4:18
4TH & 5
OWN 41
0
3.7%
Billy Gowers punt for 44 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 0:592% → 2%
Q4 9:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
2.0%
Micah Alejado pass complete to Brandon White for 4 yds to the HAW 29Similar
Q4 9:21
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-5
2.0%
Hawai'i Penalty, off-side (Dean Briski) to the HAW 24Similar
Q4 9:07
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+3
1.9%
Micah Alejado pass complete to Pofele Ashlock for 3 yds to the HAW 27Similar
Q4 8:46
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
1.8%
pass incomplete to Nick CenacleSimilar
Q4 8:42
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
1.8%
Billy Gowers punt for 58 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 18INT
5 plays · 61 yds · 2:3397% → 96%
Q4 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+2
3.4%
Micah Ford run for 2 yds to the STAN 17Similar
Q4 7:57
2ND & 8
OWN 17
+6
3.1%
Micah Ford run for 6 yds to the STAN 23Similar
Q4 7:26
3RD & 2
OWN 23
+36
3.2%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Chico Holt for 36 yds to the HAW 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:42
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+17
3.5%
Micah Ford run for 17 yds to the HAW 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:01
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
3.6%
Ben Gulbranson pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 19FG
10 plays · 50 yds · 3:512% → 1%
Q4 5:52
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-6
1.6%
Micah Alejado sacked by Hunter Barth for a loss of 6 yards to the HAW 25Similar
Q4 5:17
2ND & 16
OWN 25
+25
1.2%
Micah Alejado pass complete to Pofele Ashlock for 25 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:45
1ST & 10
50
0
1.1%
pass incomplete to Brandon WhiteSimilar
Q4 4:43
2ND & 10
50
+12
1.1%
Micah Alejado run for 12 yds to the STAN 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:15
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+5
1.1%
Landon Sims run for 5 yds to the STAN 33Similar
Q4 3:49
2ND & 5
OPP 33
+8
1.3%
Micah Alejado pass complete to Jackson Harris for 8 yds to the STAN 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:31
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
1.4%
pass incomplete to Jackson HarrisSimilar
Q4 3:26
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+3
1.3%
Micah Alejado pass complete to Pofele Ashlock for 3 yds to the STAN 22Similar
Q4 2:47
3RD & 7
OPP 22
+3
1.2%
Micah Alejado run for 3 yds to the STAN 19Similar
Q4 2:01
4TH & 4
OPP 19
+37
1.1%
Kansei Matsuzawa 37 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:17100% → 100%
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
0.5%
Micah Ford run for 3 yds to the STAN 28Similar
Q4 1:54
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
0.5%
pass incomplete to C.J. WilliamsSimilar
Q4 1:47
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
0.5%
Ben Gulbranson pass incomplete to Jordan Onovughe, broken up by Jaheim Wilson-JonesSimilar
Q4 1:43
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+10
0.5%
Aidan Flintoft punt for 54 yds , Tama Uiliata returns for 10 yds to the HAW 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 21FG
9 plays · 52 yds · 1:310% → 0%
Q4 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+6
0.3%
Micah Alejado pass complete to Jackson Harris for 6 yds to the HAW 34Similar
Q4 1:28
2ND & 4
OWN 34
+4
0.3%
Micah Alejado pass complete to Jackson Harris for 4 yds to the HAW 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
0.3%
Micah Alejado pass complete to Landon Sims for 5 yds to the HAW 43Similar
Q4 0:48
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+12
0.3%
Micah Alejado pass complete to Jackson Harris for 12 yds to the STAN 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:46
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
0.3%
pass incomplete to Cam BarfieldSimilar
Q4 0:42
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+24
0.3%
Micah Alejado pass complete to Landon Sims for 24 yds to the STAN 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:23
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
0.4%
pass incomplete to Jackson HarrisSimilar
Q4 0:23
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+1
0.3%
Landon Sims run for 1 yd to the STAN 20Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 9
OPP 20
+38
0.3%
Kansei Matsuzawa 38 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+99.7
FG · Q3 6:25
Kansei Matsuzawa 40 Yd Field Goal
-3.1
FG · Q2 3:39
Emmet Kenney 46 Yd Field Goal
+2.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com