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USU

Utah State 26 at Hawai'i 44

HAW
2025 · Week 7 · Oct 11, 2025 · Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex
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Win probability · HAW
modelHAW aheadUSU aheadconfidence bandkey playHAW scoreUSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDTDTDTDFGTDTDFGTDFGTDEnd of GameFG+0.5HAW 48.4%Kansei Matsuzawa 31 yd FG GOODAWAY 0 - HOME 3 · Q1 8:53
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 8:53 · Kansei Matsuzawa 31 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+31.0+15.50−15.5−31.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 18Home team on offense+0.6Score differential+0.0Garbage-time factor+0.1Pregame prior−3.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 8:11: Anthony Garcia pass complete to Javen Jacobs for 30 yds for a TD (Tanner Rinker KICK) — USU win probability +11.9 pts (now 62%) (top driver: USU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 5:45: Micah Alejado pass complete to Pofele Ashlock for 7 yds for a TD (Kansei Matsuzawa KICK) — HAW win probability +10.4 pts (now 54%) (top driver: HAW has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:24: Micah Alejado pass complete to Pofele Ashlock for 31 yds for a TD (Kansei Matsuzawa KICK) — HAW win probability +11.7 pts (now 62%) (top driver: HAW has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 14:01: Bryson Barnes pass complete to Broc Lane for 32 yds for a TD (Tanner Rinker PAT BLOCKED) — USU win probability +11.6 pts (now 58%) (top driver: USU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 11:55: Micah Alejado run for 15 yds for a TD (Kansei Matsuzawa KICK) — HAW win probability +19.9 pts (now 87%) (top driver: HAW has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
HAW made the numbers' call on 6 of 9USU made the numbers' call on 9 of 11
  1. Q1 13:37HAW 4th & 13 at HAW 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.3%−0.1
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:17USU 4th & 8 at USU 3, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.9%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:53HAW 4th & 4 at USU 13, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 48.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.8%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    48.8%−<0.1
    85% to make
    Punt
    47.8%−1.0
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:31USU 4th & 2 at HAW 2, down 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 49.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    49.4%−0.6
    94% to make
    Punt
    47.1%−2.8
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:05USU 4th & 6 at USU 14, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.2%−0.5
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.7%
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:51USU 4th & 8 at HAW 38, down 7
    Close callPunted · 43.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.7%
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    43.4%−0.3
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    43.4%−0.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 12:03HAW 4th & 9 at HAW 4, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.8%−1.3
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.1%
    average punt
  8. Q2 9:36USU 4th & 1 at HAW 1, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 42.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    42.2%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    39.9%−2.3
    94% to make
    Punt
    34.0%−8.2
    average punt
  9. Q2 8:19HAW 4th & 14 at HAW 21, tied
    Numbers favored punt by 1.9 ptsWent for it · 50.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    48.7%−1.9
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    50.6%
    average punt
  10. Q2 3:30USU 4th & 14 at USU 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.2%−2.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.4%
    average punt
  11. Q2 2:55HAW 4th & 4 at HAW 47, tied
    Close callPunted · 53.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.4%−0.7
    average punt
  12. Q2 1:05USU 4th & 10 at HAW 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 51.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.8%−1.6
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    51.3%
    72% to make
    Punt
    45.5%−5.8
    average punt
  13. Q3 10:27HAW 4th & 10 at HAW 49, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.2%−1.5
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.7%
    average punt
  14. Q3 6:40USU 4th & 6 at USU 23, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.3%−2.3
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.6%
    average punt
  15. Q3 3:20HAW 4th & 6 at USU 28, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 49.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.9%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    49.0%
    60% to make
    Punt
    37.2%−11.8
    average punt
  16. Q3 1:51USU 4th & 9 at USU 45, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.2%−2.0
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.2%
    average punt
  17. Q4 10:36USU 4th & 4 at HAW 37, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 18.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    18.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    15.6%−2.7
    40% to make
    Punt
    14.3%−4.0
    average punt
  18. Q4 10:36USU 4th & 4 at HAW 37, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 18.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    18.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    15.6%−2.7
    40% to make
    Punt
    14.3%−4.0
    average punt
  19. Q4 7:47HAW 4th & 18 at USU 18, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 87.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.3%−2.7
    11% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    89.0%
    79% to make
    Punt
    82.1%−6.8
    average punt
  20. Q4 5:08HAW 4th & 3 at USU 29, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 93.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    93.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    92.7%−0.5
    58% to make
    Punt
    90.7%−2.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
HAW made the numbers' call on 5 of 5USU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 2:27HAW Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 9:36USU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 8:11USU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 5:45HAW Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:24HAW Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 14:01USU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    53.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 11:55HAW Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.7%−0.4
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 3:48HAW Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
HAWDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 23 yds · 0:5746% → 46%
Q1 14:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+26
46.2%
Micah Alejado pass complete to Nick Cenacle for 26 yds to the USU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:34
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
46.3%
Micah Alejado pass incomplete to Pofele AshlockSimilar
Q1 14:27
2ND & 10
OPP 49
-3
46.3%
Landon Sims run for a loss of 3 yards to the HAW 48Similar
Q1 13:46
3RD & 13
OWN 48
0
46.4%
Micah Alejado pass incomplete to Pofele AshlockSimilar
Q1 13:37
4TH & 13
OWN 48
0
46.4%
Billy Gowers punt for 51 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the USU 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:1153% → 53%
Q1 13:28
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+8
46.6%
Miles Davis run for 8 yds to the USU 9Similar
Q1 13:03
2ND & 2
OWN 9
-6
46.6%
Bryson Barnes sacked by De'Jon Benton for a loss of 6 yards to the USU 3Similar
Q1 12:28
3RD & 8
OWN 3
0
46.9%
Bryson Barnes pass incomplete to Brady BoydSimilar
Q1 12:17
4TH & 8
OWN 3
+3
47.0%
Landon Rehkow punt for 39 yds , Tama Uiliata returns for 3 yds to the USU 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 3FG
8 plays · 26 yds · 3:1847% → 48%
Q1 12:11
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
47.2%
Micah Alejado pass incomplete to Jackson HarrisSimilar
Q1 11:56
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+5
47.3%
Micah Alejado pass complete to Karsyn Pupunu for 5 yds to the USU 34Similar
Q1 11:22
3RD & 5
OPP 34
+15
47.4%
Micah Alejado pass complete to Pofele Ashlock for 15 yds to the USU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:45
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+3
47.8%
Micah Alejado pass complete to Devon Tauaefa for 3 yds to the USU 16Similar
Q1 10:11
2ND & 7
OPP 16
-1
48.0%
Landon Sims run for a loss of 1 yard to the USU 17Similar
Q1 9:24
3RD & 8
OPP 17
+4
48.1%
Micah Alejado pass complete to Nick Cenacle for 4 yds to the USU 13Similar
Q1 8:53
4TH & 4
OPP 13
+31
48.4%
Kansei Matsuzawa 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 4FG
13 plays · 73 yds · 4:1252% → 52%
Q1 8:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
48.4%
Bryson Barnes run for 15 yds to the USU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
48.1%
Javen Jacobs run for 1 yd to the USU 41Similar
Q1 7:51
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+10
48.4%
Miles Davis run for 20 yds to the HAW 39 for a 1ST down Utah State Penalty, Offensive Holding (Brady Boyd) to the HAW 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:17
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
48.1%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Javen Jacobs for 4 yds to the HAW 45Similar
Q1 7:10
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+15
48.2%
(07:10) No Huddle-Shotgun Barnes,Bryson pass incomplete deep left to Pegan,Braden thrown to Hawaii10 PENALTY Hawaii Pass Interference (Sinclair,Justin) 15 yards from Hawaii45 to Hawaii30, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:52
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+15
48.0%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Braden Pegan for 15 yds to the HAW 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:31
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+5
47.9%
Bryson Barnes run for 5 yds to the HAW 10Similar
Q1 6:01
2ND & 5
OPP 10
+4
48.0%
Hawai'i Penalty, Personal Foul (Kilinahe Mendiola-Jensen) to the HAW 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
48.1%
Miles Davis run for 2 yds to the HAW 1Similar
Q1 4:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
48.2%
Javen Jacobs run for a loss of 1 yard to the HAW 2Similar
Q1 4:35
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
48.8%
Bryson Barnes pass incomplete to Miles DavisSimilar
Q1 4:31
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+20
47.7%
Tanner Rinker 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 5TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:5848% → 55%
Q1 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
48.4%
Micah Alejado pass complete to Brandon White for 9 yds to the HAW 34Similar
Q1 3:37
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+46
49.3%
Micah Alejado pass complete to Brandon White for 46 yds to the USU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:01
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+2
50.4%
Cam Barfield run for 2 yds to the USU 18Similar
Q1 2:27
2ND & 8
OPP 18
+18
54.9%
Micah Alejado pass complete to Pofele Ashlock for 18 yds for a TDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 6PUNT
8 plays · 4 yds · 2:1747% → 44%
Q1 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
53.4%
Bryson Barnes pass incomplete to Brady BoydSimilar
Q1 2:14
2ND & 10
OWN 10
-5
53.6%
(02:20) No Huddle-Shotgun Barnes,Bryson rush middle for 10 yards gain to the USU20, End Of Play PENALTY USU Holding (Maile,George) 5 yards from USU10 to USU05. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:57
2ND & 15
OWN 5
-2
53.9%
(02:04) No Huddle-Shotgun Barnes,Bryson rush middle for 16 yards gain to the USU21 (Thompson,Matagi) PENALTY USU Holding (Maile,George) 2 yards from USU05 to USU03. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:45
2ND & 17
OWN 3
-2
54.0%
PENALTY USU False Start (Sia,Jr) 2 yards from USU03 to USU01. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:17
2ND & 19
OWN 1
+6
54.3%
Miles Davis run for 6 yds to the USU 7Similar
Q1 0:35
3RD & 13
OWN 7
+7
55.3%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Broc Lane for 7 yds to the USU 14Similar
Q1 0:05
4TH & 6
OWN 14
0
55.8%
Landon Rehkow punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Tama Uiliata at the HAW 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 7INT
4 plays · -5 yds · 1:1556% → 56%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+8
56.3%
Micah Alejado pass complete to Brandon White for 8 yds to the USU 47Similar
Q2 14:54
2ND & 2
OPP 47
-8
56.6%
Micah Alejado sacked for a loss of 8 yards to the HAW 45Similar
Q2 14:13
3RD & 10
OWN 45
-5
55.6%
(14:14) PENALTY Hawaii False Start (Pupunu,Karsyn) 5 yards from Hawaii45 to Hawaii40. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:45
3RD & 15
OWN 40
-22
55.6%
Micah Alejado pass intercepted D'Angelo Mayes return for 22 yds to the HAW 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:5046% → 44%
Q2 13:41
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
53.7%
Bryson Barnes pass incomplete to Braden PeganSimilar
Q2 13:41
2ND & 10
OPP 40
-5
53.7%
PENALTY USU False Start (Liston,Jimmy) 5 yards from Hawaii40 to Hawaii45. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:30
2ND & 15
OPP 45
+7
54.7%
Bryson Barnes run for 7 yds to the HAW 38Similar
Q2 12:59
3RD & 8
OPP 38
0
54.2%
Bryson Barnes pass incomplete to Broc LaneSimilar
Q2 12:51
4TH & 8
OPP 38
0
55.7%
Landon Rehkow punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the HAW 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:4056% → 55%
Q2 12:43
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+1
56.3%
Cam Barfield run for 1 yd to the HAW 4Similar
Q2 12:13
2ND & 9
OWN 4
0
56.5%
Micah Alejado pass incomplete to Devon TauaefaSimilar
Q2 12:09
3RD & 9
OWN 4
0
55.9%
Micah Alejado pass incomplete to Nick CenacleSimilar
Q2 12:03
4TH & 9
OWN 4
0
55.3%
Billy Gowers punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Javen Jacobs at the HAW 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 10TD
7 plays · 47 yds · 2:1746% → 52%
Q2 11:53
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
54.5%
Miles Davis run for no gain to the HAW 47Similar
Q2 11:10
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+6
53.7%
Miles Davis run for 6 yds to the HAW 10Similar
Q2 10:58
2ND & 4
OPP 10
+5
53.8%
(11:03) No Huddle-Shotgun Barnes,Bryson pass complete short left to Boyd,Brady caught at Hawaii10, for 3 yards to the Hawaii07 (Moore,Kona) PENALTY Hawaii Illegal Substitution 5 yards from Hawaii10 to Hawaii05, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
53.9%
Bryson Barnes run for 1 yd to the HAW 4Similar
Q2 10:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
54.1%
Bryson Barnes pass incomplete to Braden PeganSimilar
Q2 9:56
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
55.5%
Bryson Barnes run for 3 yds to the HAW 1Similar
Q2 9:36
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
48.1%
Miles Davis run for 1 yd for a TD (Tanner Rinker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 11DOWNS
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:1051% → 50%
Q2 9:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
51.1%
Landon Sims run for 5 yds to the HAW 30Similar
Q2 9:04
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-9
51.7%
Micah Alejado sacked for a loss of 9 yards to the HAW 21Similar
Q2 8:27
3RD & 14
OWN 21
0
50.0%
Micah Alejado pass incomplete to Pofele AshlockSimilar
Q2 8:19
4TH & 14
OWN 21
+9
49.5%
Billy Gowers run for 9 yds to the HAW 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 12TD
1 play · 30 yds · 0:0062% → 62%
Q2 8:11
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+30
37.7%
Anthony Garcia pass complete to Javen Jacobs for 30 yds for a TD (Tanner Rinker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 13TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:1941% → 54%
Q2 8:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
40.5%
Micah Alejado pass complete to Jackson Harris for 12 yds to the HAW 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+43
40.9%
Micah Alejado pass complete to Jackson Harris for 43 yds to the USU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:59
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+10
43.8%
Micah Alejado pass complete to Nick Cenacle for 10 yds to the USU 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
43.8%
Micah Alejado run for 3 yds to the USU 7Similar
Q2 5:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
43.7%
Micah Alejado pass incomplete to Nick CenacleSimilar
Q2 5:45
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
54.0%
Micah Alejado pass complete to Pofele Ashlock for 7 yds for a TD (Kansei Matsuzawa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · -4 yds · 2:0151% → 49%
Q2 5:31
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
48.6%
Miles Davis run for 5 yds to the USU 29Similar
Q2 4:57
2ND & 5
OWN 29
+2
48.0%
Bryson Barnes run for 2 yds to the USU 31Similar
Q2 4:32
3RD & 3
OWN 31
-5
48.7%
PENALTY USU False Start (Lane,Broc) 5 yards from USU31 to USU26. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:14
3RD & 8
OWN 26
-6
49.7%
Bryson Barnes sacked by Aiden McComber for a loss of 6 yards to the USU 20Similar
Q2 3:30
4TH & 14
OWN 20
0
51.1%
Landon Rehkow punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Tama Uiliata at the HAW 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:2954% → 53%
Q2 3:24
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
54.1%
Micah Alejado pass complete to Jackson Harris for 6 yds to the HAW 47Similar
Q2 3:08
2ND & 4
OWN 47
0
54.9%
Micah Alejado pass incomplete to Nick CenacleSimilar
Q2 3:03
3RD & 4
OWN 47
0
53.9%
Micah Alejado pass incomplete to Nick CenacleSimilar
Q2 2:55
4TH & 4
OWN 47
0
52.5%
Billy Gowers punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Javen Jacobs at the USU 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 16FG
12 plays · 64 yds · 1:3151% → 56%
Q2 2:36
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+4
48.9%
Jacob Conover pass complete to Broc Lane for 4 yds to the USU 18Similar
Q2 2:30
2ND & 6
OWN 18
0
48.9%
Jacob Conover pass incomplete to Brady BoydSimilar
Q2 1:59
3RD & 6
OWN 18
+28
50.1%
Jacob Conover pass complete to Brady Boyd for 28 yds Brady Boyd fumbled, recovered by USU Braden Pegan for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
46.1%
Jacob Conover pass incomplete to Brady BoydSimilar
Q2 1:53
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+12
46.8%
Jacob Conover pass complete to Brady Boyd for 12 yds to the HAW 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:35
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
45.2%
Jacob Conover pass incomplete to Broc LaneSimilar
Q2 1:30
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+20
45.5%
Miles Davis run for 20 yds to the HAW 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:22
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
43.9%
Jacob Conover pass incomplete to Brady BoydSimilar
Q2 1:19
2ND & 10
OPP 22
0
44.3%
Jacob Conover pass incomplete to Josh SterzerSimilar
Q2 1:09
3RD & 10
OPP 22
0
45.6%
Jacob Conover pass incomplete to Braden PeganSimilar
Q2 1:05
4TH & 10
OPP 22
+40
43.9%
Tanner Rinker 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 17TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 0:3546% → 62%
Q2 0:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
46.1%
Micah Alejado pass complete to Jackson Harris for 17 yds to the HAW 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
48.5%
Micah Alejado run for 3 yds to the HAW 45Similar
Q2 0:45
2ND & 7
OWN 45
0
48.9%
Micah Alejado pass incomplete to Pofele AshlockSimilar
Q2 0:40
3RD & 7
OWN 45
+15
47.5%
Micah Alejado pass complete to Jackson Harris for 15 yds to the USU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:29
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+9
49.8%
Micah Alejado pass complete to Landon Sims for 9 yds to the USU 31Similar
Q2 0:24
2ND & 1
OPP 31
+31
61.5%
Micah Alejado pass complete to Pofele Ashlock for 31 yds for a TD (Kansei Matsuzawa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 18END OF HALF
5 plays · 16 yds · 0:1843% → 43%
Q2 0:18
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-5
57.2%
PENALTY USU Delay Of Game 5 yards from USU23 to USU18. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:12
1ST & 15
OWN 18
+20
57.4%
Jacob Conover pass complete to Kahanu Davis for 20 yds to the USU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:03
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-10
56.1%
(00:03) No Huddle-Shotgun Conover,Jacob rush left for 10 yards gain to the USU48, out of bounds at USU48 PENALTY USU Holding (Maile,George) 10 yards from USU38 to USU28. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 20
OWN 28
+11
57.3%
Miles Davis run for 11 yds to the USU 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 19TD
4 plays · 44 yds · 0:5346% → 58%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+8
53.9%
Miles Davis run for 8 yds to the HAW 36Similar
Q3 14:30
2ND & 2
OPP 36
+4
53.7%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Miles Davis for 4 yds to the HAW 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:01
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+32
42.1%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Broc Lane for 32 yds for a TD (Tanner Rinker PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 20PUNT
11 plays · 24 yds · 3:2848% → 47%
Q3 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
48.2%
Landon Sims run for 3 yds to the HAW 28Similar
Q3 13:26
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+10
48.4%
Micah Alejado pass complete to Nick Cenacle for 10 yds to the HAW 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
49.4%
Micah Alejado pass complete to Nick Cenacle for 3 yds to the HAW 41Similar
Q3 12:39
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+6
50.8%
Landon Sims run for 6 yds to the HAW 47Similar
Q3 11:40
3RD & 1
OWN 47
+2
50.6%
Tama Uiliata run for 2 yds to the HAW 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
51.4%
Micah Alejado pass incomplete to Tama UiliataSimilar
Q3 11:15
2ND & 10
OWN 49
-5
51.0%
Micah Alejado sacked by Chris Joe for a loss of 5 yards to the HAW 44Similar
Q3 10:34
3RD & 15
OWN 44
0
46.8%
Micah Alejado pass incomplete to Brandon WhiteSimilar
Q3 10:34
4TH & 15
OWN 44
+5
45.6%
(10:34) PENALTY USU Offside (Tuha,Tevita) 5 yards from Hawaii44 to Hawaii49. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:27
4TH & 10
OWN 49
0
46.7%
Billy Gowers punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Javen Jacobs at the USU 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 21PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 3:3953% → 51%
Q3 10:19
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+6
47.0%
Miles Davis run for 6 yds to the USU 12Similar
Q3 9:54
2ND & 4
OWN 12
-2
46.7%
Bryson Barnes sacked by Carsen Stocklinski for a loss of 2 yards to the USU 10Similar
Q3 9:14
3RD & 6
OWN 10
+9
48.3%
Bryson Barnes run for 9 yds to the USU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:42
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-9
46.5%
(08:49) No Huddle-Shotgun Barnes,Bryson rush middle for 6 yards gain to the USU25 (McCoy,Luther) PENALTY USU Holding (Maile,George) 9 yards from USU19 to USU10. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:26
1ST & 19
OWN 10
+2
46.7%
Miles Davis run for 2 yds to the USU 12Similar
Q3 7:54
2ND & 17
OWN 12
+8
47.1%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Miles Davis for 8 yds to the USU 20Similar
Q3 7:11
3RD & 9
OWN 20
+3
48.1%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Brady Boyd for 3 yds to the USU 23Similar
Q3 6:40
4TH & 6
OWN 23
0
48.8%
Landon Rehkow punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Tama Uiliata at the HAW 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 22FG
10 plays · 38 yds · 3:1148% → 60%
Q3 6:31
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+10
48.4%
Micah Alejado pass complete to Jackson Harris for 10 yds to the HAW 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:02
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+9
51.5%
Micah Alejado pass complete to Pofele Ashlock for 9 yds to the USU 47Similar
Q3 5:39
2ND & 1
OPP 47
+4
52.6%
Micah Alejado pass complete to Pofele Ashlock for 4 yds to the USU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:06
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
52.7%
Micah Alejado pass incomplete to Jackson HarrisSimilar
Q3 4:48
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+11
52.0%
Micah Alejado pass complete to Nick Delgadillo for 11 yds to the USU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-3
53.9%
Micah Alejado sacked by Chris Joe for a loss of 3 yards to the USU 35Similar
Q3 4:02
2ND & 13
OPP 35
+7
51.4%
Micah Alejado run for 7 yds to the USU 28Similar
Q3 3:24
3RD & 6
OPP 28
0
52.0%
Micah Alejado pass incomplete to Nick CenacleSimilar
Q3 3:20
4TH & 6
OPP 28
+46
60.4%
Kansei Matsuzawa 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 23PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 1:1142% → 40%
Q3 3:02
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+15
57.9%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Brady Boyd for 15 yds to the USU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
55.0%
Bryson Barnes run for 1 yd to the USU 45Similar
Q3 2:03
2ND & 9
OWN 45
0
55.5%
Bryson Barnes pass incomplete to Kahanu DavisSimilar
Q3 1:57
3RD & 9
OWN 45
0
57.2%
Bryson Barnes pass incomplete to Broc LaneSimilar
Q3 1:51
4TH & 9
OWN 45
0
59.9%
Landon Rehkow punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Tama Uiliata at the HAW 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 24TD
12 plays · 81 yds · 4:4160% → 87%
Q3 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+3
59.6%
Micah Alejado pass complete to Cam Barfield for 3 yds to the HAW 22Similar
Q3 1:06
2ND & 7
OWN 22
+14
59.6%
Micah Alejado pass complete to Jackson Harris for 14 yds to the HAW 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:37
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
61.3%
Micah Alejado run for 4 yds to the HAW 40Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 6
OWN 40
0
63.3%
Micah Alejado pass incomplete to Jackson HarrisSimilar
Q4 14:48
3RD & 6
OWN 40
+7
60.7%
Micah Alejado pass complete to Pofele Ashlock for 7 yds to the HAW 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+16
64.4%
Landon Sims run for 16 yds to the USU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:50
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+11
65.3%
Micah Alejado pass complete to Cam Barfield for 11 yds to the USU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:19
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+7
66.7%
Micah Alejado pass complete to Blaze Kamoku for 7 yds to the USU 19Similar
Q4 12:33
2ND & 3
OPP 19
+4
66.9%
Micah Alejado pass complete to Nick Cenacle for 4 yds to the USU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:01
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
67.1%
Micah Alejado pass incomplete to Karsyn PupunuSimilar
Q4 11:55
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+15
87.0%
Micah Alejado run for 15 yds for a TD (Kansei Matsuzawa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 25DOWNS
7 plays · 41 yds · 1:0118% → 19%
Q4 11:37
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+35
82.4%
Bryson Barnes run for 35 yds to the HAW 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:21
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
79.0%
Bryson Barnes pass incomplete to Anthony GarciaSimilar
Q4 11:13
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+6
79.4%
Miles Davis run for 6 yds to the HAW 37Similar
Q4 10:40
3RD & 4
OPP 37
0
79.5%
Bryson Barnes pass incomplete to Kahanu DavisSimilar
Q4 10:36
4TH & 4
OPP 37
0
81.2%
Bryson Barnes pass incomplete to Brady BoydSimilar
Q4 10:36
4TH & 4
OPP 37
0
81.2%
Bryson Barnes pass incomplete to Brady BoydSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 26FG
7 plays · 45 yds · 2:4187% → 90%
Q4 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
86.7%
Landon Sims run for 6 yds to the HAW 43Similar
Q4 9:52
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+7
87.8%
Micah Alejado pass complete to Karsyn Pupunu for 7 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:21
1ST & 10
50
+43
88.3%
Landon Sims run for 43 yds to the USU 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
89.0%
Micah Alejado pass incomplete to Pofele AshlockSimilar
Q4 8:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
89.1%
Micah Alejado pass incomplete to Jackson HarrisSimilar
Q4 8:27
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
-11
88.5%
Micah Alejado sacked by Tyree Morris for a loss of 11 yards to the USU 18Similar
Q4 7:47
4TH & GOAL
OPP 18
+36
90.2%
Kansei Matsuzawa 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 27FUMBLE
4 plays · 11 yds · 0:5310% → 10%
Q4 7:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
90.4%
Miles Davis run for 1 yd to the USU 26Similar
Q4 7:11
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+10
91.1%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Braden Pegan for 10 yds to the USU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
90.2%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Miles Davis for no gain Miles Davis fumbled, recovered by USU Jared SmithSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 28TD
6 plays · 36 yds · 2:4893% → 99%
Q4 6:36
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+4
92.6%
Micah Alejado pass complete to Tama Uiliata for 4 yds to the USU 32Similar
Q4 6:02
2ND & 6
OPP 32
+3
93.6%
Micah Alejado pass complete to Cam Barfield for 3 yds to the USU 29Similar
Q4 5:23
3RD & 3
OPP 29
0
93.6%
Micah Alejado pass incomplete to Nick CenacleSimilar
Q4 5:08
4TH & 3
OPP 29
+22
93.1%
Micah Alejado pass complete to Pofele Ashlock for 22 yds to the USU 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
94.2%
Landon Sims run for 3 yds to the USU 4Similar
Q4 3:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
98.5%
Landon Sims run for 4 yds for a TD (Kansei Matsuzawa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 29INT
3 plays · 58 yds · 0:372% → 2%
Q4 3:26
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
98.1%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Broc Lane for 5 yds to the USU 26Similar
Q4 2:49
2ND & 5
OWN 26
+53
98.1%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Braden Pegan for 53 yds to the HAW 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 30END OF GAME
6 plays · 41 yds · 2:1599% → 99%
Q4 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+7
98.6%
Christian Vaughn run for 7 yds to the HAW 24Similar
Q4 1:52
2ND & 3
OWN 24
+37
98.9%
Dermaricus Davis run for 37 yds to the USU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:22
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-1
99.0%
D. Davis takes a kneeSimilar
Q4 0:52
2ND & 11
OPP 40
-1
99.1%
D. Davis takes a kneeSimilar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 12
OPP 41
-1
99.0%
D. Davis takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 11:55
Micah Alejado run for 15 yds for a TD (Kansei Matsuzawa KICK)
+19.9
TD · Q2 8:11
Anthony Garcia pass complete to Javen Jacobs for 30 yds for a TD (Tanner Rinker KICK)
-11.9
TD · Q2 0:24
Micah Alejado pass complete to Pofele Ashlock for 31 yds for a TD (Kansei Matsuzawa KICK)
+11.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com