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Win probability · ARIZ
modelARIZ aheadHAW aheadconfidence bandkey playARIZ scoreHAW score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 8:44 · Billy Gowers punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Jeremiah Patterson at the ARIZ 37
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 12:26: Quincy Craig run for 54 yds for a TD (Michael Salgado-Medina KICK) — ARIZ win probability +4.2 pts (now 87%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
- FG · Q2 4:31: Michael Salgado-Medina 35 yd FG GOOD — ARIZ win probability +1.5 pts (now 88%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
- FG · Q2 0:00: Kansei Matsuzawa 41 yd FG GOOD — HAW win probability +2.3 pts (now 14%) (top driver: HAW has the ball).
- TD · Q3 12:51: Noah Fifita pass complete to Sam Olson for 5 yds for a TD (Michael Salgado-Medina KICK) — ARIZ win probability +6.2 pts (now 94%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
- TD · Q3 6:46: Noah Fifita run for 10 yds for a TD (Michael Salgado-Medina KICK) — ARIZ win probability +3.1 pts (now 99%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
ARIZ made the numbers' call on 7 of 8HAW made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
- Q1 13:32HAW 4th & 2 at HAW 33, tiedClose callPunted · 16.5% before the snapGo for it16.5%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call16.5%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 4:48HAW 4th & 10 at ARIZ 16, down 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 17.1% before the snapGo for it16.9%−0.227% to convertField goalTheir call17.0%81% to makePunt16.1%−1.0average punt
- Q1 3:23ARIZ 4th & 6 at ARIZ 29, up 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.8% before the snapGo for it80.9%−0.139% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call81.0%average punt
- Q2 9:51HAW 4th & 14 at HAW 32, down 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.2% before the snapGo for it14.6%−0.818% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call15.4%average punt
- Q2 8:21ARIZ 4th & 1 at ARIZ 44, up 11Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 84.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call85.0%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt84.0%−1.0average punt
- Q2 4:31ARIZ 4th & 17 at HAW 17, up 11Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 84.5% before the snapGo for it83.7%−1.013% to convertField goalTheir call84.7%80% to makePunt81.8%−2.9average punt
- Q2 0:00HAW 4th & 7 at ARIZ 23, down 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 12.4% before the snapGo for it12.0%−0.236% to convertField goalTheir call12.2%70% to makePunt9.5%−2.8average punt
- Q3 11:24HAW 4th & 20 at HAW 15, down 18Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.7% before the snapGo for it6.2%−2.29% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call8.4%average punt
- Q3 11:24ARIZ 4th & 2 at ARIZ 34, up 18Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 93.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call94.4%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt94.1%−0.2average punt
- Q3 9:06ARIZ 4th & 19 at ARIZ 44, up 18Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.4% before the snapGo for it93.4%−1.611% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call95.1%average punt
- Q3 8:44HAW 4th & 10 at HAW 24, down 18Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.3% before the snapGo for it5.8%−1.228% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call7.0%average punt
- Q3 7:40ARIZ 4th & 12 at ARIZ 35, up 18Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.6% before the snapGo for it94.2%−1.123% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call95.3%average punt
- Q3 3:18HAW 4th & 1 at ARIZ 43, down 25Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.3%70% to convertField goal0.5%−0.828% to makePunt0.7%−0.6average punt
- Q3 1:45ARIZ 4th & 4 at HAW 49, up 25Close callPunted · 99.2% before the snapGo for it99.3%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.2%−0.1average punt
- Q4 13:14ARIZ 4th & 20 at HAW 34, up 25Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.4% before the snapGo for it99.2%−0.310% to convertField goalTheir call99.4%47% to makePunt99.3%−0.1average punt
- Q4 10:00HAW 4th & 8 at ARIZ 32, down 28Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.1%−0.134% to convertField goal0.2%51% to makePunt0.1%−0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARIZ made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
- Q1 12:11ARIZ Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call83.6%97% to makeGo for two83.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 12:26ARIZ Touchdown, up 10 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call83.8%97% to makeGo for two83.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 12:51ARIZ Touchdown, up 17 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call92.5%97% to makeGo for two92.5%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 6:46ARIZ Touchdown, up 24 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.6%97% to makeGo for two97.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 4:29ARIZ Touchdown, up 34 before the tryClose callWent for two · failedKick100.0%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartHAWDrive 1PUNT5 plays · 8 yds · 1:1514% → 14%
ARIZDrive 2TD5 plays · 47 yds · 0:5686% → 86%
HAWDrive 3FG17 plays · 59 yds · 7:1614% → 16%
Q1 11:20
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+12
85.8%
Micah Alejado pass complete to Nick Cenacle for 12 yds to the HAW 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:07
1ST & 10
50
+7
85.3%
Micah Alejado pass complete to Karsyn Pupunu for 7 yds to the ARIZ 43Similar
Q1 7:31
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
85.1%
Micah Alejado pass complete to Pofele Ashlock for 2 yds to the ARIZ 36Similar
Q1 6:57
3RD & 8
OPP 36
+8
85.0%
Micah Alejado pass complete to Pofele Ashlock for 8 yds to the ARIZ 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:37
2ND & 6
OPP 24
+8
84.4%
Micah Alejado pass complete to Landon Sims for 8 yds to the ARIZ 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 4PUNT6 plays · 4 yds · 1:1584% → 83%
HAWDrive 5FUMBLE9 plays · 33 yds · 5:0816% → 19%
Q1 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
83.6%
Micah Alejado pass complete to Pofele Ashlock for 3 yds to the HAW 25Similar
Q1 1:35
3RD & 1
OWN 31
+10
82.7%
Micah Alejado pass complete to David Cordero for 10 yds to the HAW 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:30
2ND & 9
OPP 44
+6
81.0%
Micah Alejado pass complete to Brandon White for 6 yds to the ARIZ 38Similar
Q2 12:59
3RD & 3
OPP 38
-7
80.8%
Micah Alejado sacked by Chase Kennedy for a loss of 7 yards to the ARIZ 45 Micah Alejado fumbled, recovered by HAW Chase Kennedy , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 6TD2 plays · 55 yds · 0:1683% → 87%
HAWDrive 7PUNT7 plays · 7 yds · 2:2015% → 14%
Q2 12:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
85.5%
Micah Alejado pass complete to Jackson Harris for 11 yds to the HAW 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-1
85.1%
Micah Alejado sacked by Jabari Mann for a loss of 1 yard to the HAW 35Similar
Q2 9:51
4TH & 14
OWN 32
+12
86.3%
Billy Gowers punt for 45 yds , Jeremiah Patterson returns for 12 yds to the ARIZ 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 8FG14 plays · 48 yds · 5:2087% → 88%
Q2 9:51
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
86.5%
PENALTY HAW Offside (Stocklinski,Carsen) 5 yards from ARIZ35 to ARIZ40. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:43
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+4
86.6%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Isaiah Mizell for 4 yds to the ARIZ 44Similar
Q2 7:18
3RD & 3
OPP 42
+5
86.8%
(07:20) Shotgun Reescano,Kedrick rush middle for 1 yard gain to the HAW41 (Otis,Jamih) PENALTY HAW Offside (Benton,De'jon) 5 yards from HAW42 to HAW37, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:56
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+29
87.2%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Javin Whatley for 29 yds to the HAW 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 15
+3
87.1%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Ismail Mahdi for 3 yds to the HAW 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 9FG14 plays · 52 yds · 4:3112% → 14%
Q2 4:17
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+5
88.1%
Micah Alejado pass complete to Pofele Ashlock for 5 yds to the HAW 25Similar
Q2 3:31
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+11
88.2%
Micah Alejado pass complete to Karsyn Pupunu for 11 yds to the HAW 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:19
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+6
88.0%
Micah Alejado pass complete to Nick Cenacle for 6 yds to the HAW 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:45
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+28
87.3%
Micah Alejado pass complete to Landon Sims for 28 yds to the ARIZ 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+7
85.5%
Micah Alejado pass complete to Brandon White for 7 yds to the ARIZ 19Similar
Q2 0:51
2ND & 3
OPP 19
-1
85.7%
Micah Alejado sacked by Jay'Vion Cole for a loss of 1 yard to the ARIZ 20Similar
Q2 0:44
3RD & 4
OPP 20
-15
86.3%
(00:44) Shotgun Alejado,Micah pass complete short right to Pupunu,Karsyn caught at ARIZ14, for 9 yards to the ARIZ11 (Harris,Max; Smith,Genesis) PENALTY HAW Pass Interference (Cenacle,Nick) 15 yards from ARIZ20 to ARIZ35. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:08
3RD & 19
OPP 35
+12
88.0%
Micah Alejado pass complete to Landon Sims for 12 yds to the ARIZ 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 10TD7 plays · 65 yds · 2:0988% → 94%
HAWDrive 11PUNT5 plays · -10 yds · 1:278% → 7%
Q3 11:24
4TH & 20
OWN 15
0
92.8%
Billy Gowers punt for 59 yds, fair catch by Jeremiah Patterson at the ARIZ 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 12PUNT8 plays · 18 yds · 2:1895% → 95%
Q3 11:24
2ND & 10
OWN 26
-11
94.6%
Arizona Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Noah Fifita) to the ARIZ 15Similar
Q3 11:24
3RD & 21
OWN 15
+19
93.7%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Isaiah Mizell for 19 yds to the ARIZ 34Similar
Q3 11:24
4TH & 2
OWN 34
+19
94.3%
Noah Fifita run for 4 yds to the HAW 38 for a 1ST down Hawai'i Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Virdel Edwards II) to the HAW 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:24
3RD & 10
OPP 47
-9
94.7%
Noah Fifita sacked by Jackie Johnson III for a loss of 9 yards to the ARIZ 44Similar
Q3 9:06
4TH & 19
OWN 44
0
94.8%
Michael Salgado-Medina punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the HAW 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 13PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 0:226% → 6%
Q3 8:44
4TH & 10
OWN 24
0
94.2%
Billy Gowers punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Jeremiah Patterson at the ARIZ 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 14PUNT4 plays · -2 yds · 0:5195% → 95%
Q3 7:40
4TH & 12
OWN 35
0
94.9%
Michael Salgado-Medina punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Tama Uiliata at the HAW 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 15INT1 play · 0 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q3 7:33
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-5
94.3%
Micah Alejado pass intercepted Taye Brown return for 5 yds to the HAW 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 16TD2 plays · 10 yds · 0:3496% → 99%
HAWDrive 17DOWNS9 plays · 30 yds · 3:152% → 1%
Q3 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
98.5%
Micah Alejado pass complete to Pofele Ashlock for 4 yds to the HAW 29Similar
Q3 5:22
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+10
98.4%
Micah Alejado pass complete to Jackson Harris for 10 yds to the HAW 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:22
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
98.3%
Luke Weaver pass complete to Tama Uiliata for 3 yds to the ARIZ 49Similar
Q3 3:46
3RD & 9
OWN 49
+8
98.8%
Luke Weaver pass complete to Tama Uiliata for 8 yds to the ARIZ 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 18PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 1:2299% → 99%
Q3 1:45
4TH & 4
OPP 49
0
99.2%
Isaac Lovison punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Tama Uiliata at the HAW 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 19FUMBLE4 plays · 12 yds · 1:061% → 1%
Q3 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+6
99.1%
Luke Weaver pass complete to Karsyn Pupunu for 6 yds to the HAW 18Similar
Q3 1:11
2ND & 4
OWN 18
-5
99.1%
PENALTY HAW False Start (Briski,Dean) 5 yards from HAW18 to HAW13. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 0:24
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-2
99.1%
Luke Weaver run for a loss of 2 yards to the HAW 24 Luke Weaver fumbled, recovered by HAW Julian SavaiinaeaSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 20FG5 plays · -10 yds · 1:4699% → 100%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+7
99.4%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Javin Whatley for 7 yds to the HAW 17Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 3
OPP 17
-10
99.4%
(14:54) Shotgun Craig,Quincy rush left for 0 yards to the HAW17 (King,Devyn) PENALTY ARIZ Holding (Buchanan,Ty) 10 yards from HAW17 to HAW27. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:52
3RD & 9
OPP 23
-11
99.5%
Noah Fifita sacked by De'Jon Benton for a loss of 11 yards to the HAW 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 21INT16 plays · 73 yds · 4:380% → 0%
Q4 12:32
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+10
99.9%
(12:36) No Huddle-Shotgun Weaver,Luke pass incomplete short middle to Ware,Max thrown to ARIZ49 PENALTY ARIZ Holding (Cole,Jay'Vion) 10 yards from HAW36 to HAW46, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:58
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+2
99.9%
Luke Weaver pass complete to Pofele Ashlock for 2 yds to the ARIZ 32Similar
Q4 10:00
4TH & 8
OPP 32
+26
99.9%
Luke Weaver pass complete to Tama Uiliata for 26 yds to the ARIZ 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
99.9%
Luke Weaver pass complete to Tama Uiliata for no gain to the ARIZ 6Similar
Q4 8:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
99.9%
(08:37) Shotgun Weaver,Luke pass incomplete short left to Uiliata,Tama thrown to ARIZ00 PENALTY ARIZ Pass Interference (Hunter,Gavin) 4 yards from ARIZ06 to ARIZ02, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-28
99.9%
Luke Weaver pass intercepted Gavin Hunter return for 28 yds to the ARIZ 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 22TD10 plays · 72 yds · 3:50100% → 100%
Q4 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-5
99.9%
(08:19) PENALTY ARIZ False Start (Mizell,Isaiah) 5 yards from ARIZ28 to ARIZ23. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:59
1ST & 15
OWN 23
+8
99.9%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Gio Richardson for 8 yds to the ARIZ 31Similar
Q4 7:35
2ND & 7
OWN 31
+6
99.9%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Gio Richardson for 6 yds to the ARIZ 37Similar
Q4 6:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-10
99.9%
(06:10) Shotgun Craig,Quincy rush left for 6 yards gain to the HAW03 (Freeman,Deliyon; Sinclair,Justin) PENALTY ARIZ Holding (Whatley,Javin) 10 yards from HAW09 to HAW19. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 19
+6
99.9%
Quincy Craig run for 6 yds to the HAW 13 Quincy Craig fumbled, recovered by HAW Quincy CraigSimilar
Q4 4:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 13
+8
99.9%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Brandon Phelps for 8 yds to the HAW 5Similar
Q4 4:29
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
99.9%
Ismail Mahdi run for 5 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 23INT8 plays · 15 yds · 2:290% → 0%
Q4 3:34
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+10
99.9%
Luke Weaver pass complete to Brandon White for 10 yds to the HAW 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:58
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+11
99.9%
Luke Weaver pass complete to Blaze Kamoku for 11 yds to the HAW 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:46
3RD & 19
OWN 40
-2
100.0%
Luke Weaver pass intercepted Malachi Bailey return for 2 yds to the ARIZ 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 24END OF GAME4 plays · 31 yds · 1:30100% → 100%
Q4 0:21
2ND & 11
50
+15
100.0%
Hawai'i Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the HAW 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 12:51
Noah Fifita pass complete to Sam Olson for 5 yds for a TD (Michael Salgado-Medina KICK)
+6.2
TD · Q2 12:26
Quincy Craig run for 54 yds for a TD (Michael Salgado-Medina KICK)
+4.2
TD · Q3 6:46
Noah Fifita run for 10 yds for a TD (Michael Salgado-Medina KICK)
+3.1