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FRES

Fresno State 23 at Hawai'i 21

HAW
2025 · Week 4 · Sep 20, 2025 · Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex
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Win probability · HAW
modelHAW aheadFRES aheadconfidence bandkey playHAW scoreFRES score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4SAFETYTDTDFGTDFGFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 11:38 · Billy Gowers punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Jordan Malau'ulu at the FRES 15
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialPregame priorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+31.0+15.50−15.5−31.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 90Home team on offense+2.8Garbage-time factor+0.0Score differential+0.4Pregame prior−2.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 5:47: Bryson Donelson run for 1 yd for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — FRES win probability +18.2 pts (now 58%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  2. FG · Q4 9:54: Dylan Lynch 27 yd FG GOOD — FRES win probability +12.7 pts (now 56%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 5:20: K'Vion Thunderbird 59 Yd Interception Return (Dylan Lynch Kick) — FRES win probability +35.5 pts (now 82%) (top driver: HAW has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 0:10: Micah Alejado pass complete to Blaze Kamoku for 10 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — HAW win probability +32.0 pts (now 44%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
  5. TD · Q4 0:10: Timeout Hawai'i, clock 00:10 — FRES win probability +33.1 pts (now 89%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
HAW made the numbers' call on 7 of 9FRES made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 7:59FRES 4th & 3 at HAW 25, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 53.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    53.7%−0.1
    66% to make
    Punt
    52.7%−1.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:20HAW 4th & 9 at HAW 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.5%−0.3
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:26FRES 4th & 3 at FRES 47, tied
    Close callPunted · 52.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.8%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:38FRES 4th & 8 at HAW 8, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 52.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.8%−0.3
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    52.1%
    90% to make
    Punt
    48.8%−3.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:38HAW 4th & 11 at FRES 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.0%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    50.0%−0.1
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    50.0%
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:16HAW 4th & 4 at HAW 31, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.4%−0.9
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.2%
    average punt
  7. Q3 11:38HAW 4th & 6 at HAW 40, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.0%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.4%
    average punt
  8. Q3 9:31FRES 4th & 7 at FRES 18, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.7%−1.8
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.5%
    average punt
  9. Q3 7:31HAW 4th & 4 at FRES 22, up 2
    Close callKicked a field goal · 59.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.8%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    58.3%−0.4
    72% to make
    Punt
    48.7%−10.0
    average punt
  10. Q3 3:15HAW 4th & 8 at FRES 34, down 1
    Close callKicked a field goal · 50.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.8%
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    49.6%−0.1
    47% to make
    Punt
    48.0%−1.8
    average punt
  11. Q4 12:46FRES 4th & 12 at HAW 36, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 38.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.9%−1.8
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    39.6%
    42% to make
    Punt
    38.0%−1.6
    average punt
  12. Q4 9:54FRES 4th & 7 at HAW 9, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 40.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.7%−4.3
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    43.0%
    89% to make
    Punt
    27.2%−15.9
    average punt
  13. Q4 6:35HAW 4th & 1 at HAW 47, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 49.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    48.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    41.5%−7.4
    average punt
  14. Q4 3:27HAW 4th & 9 at FRES 37, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.9%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    11.8%−0.2
    40% to make
    Punt
    8.8%−3.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 3:06FRES 4th & 9 at FRES 38, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.6%−0.7
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.4%
    average punt
  16. Q4 1:02HAW 4th & 8 at FRES 39, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.4%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    7.1%−0.3
    36% to make
    Punt
    5.2%−2.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
HAW made the numbers' call on 2 of 2FRES made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q2 1:47HAW Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 0:38FRES Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 5:47FRES Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    53.4%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    53.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 5:20FRES Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.7%−2.5
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 0:10HAW Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    10.2%−19.3
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    29.5%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
FRESDrive 1MISSED FG
14 plays · 56 yds · 6:4955% → 53%
Q1 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+6
45.4%
Bryson Donelson run for 6 yds to the FRES 25Similar
Q1 14:13
2ND & 4
OWN 25
+3
45.5%
Rayshon Luke run for 3 yds to the FRES 28Similar
Q1 13:33
3RD & 1
OWN 28
+1
45.7%
Brandon Ramirez run for 1 yd to the FRES 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+17
45.8%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Ezekiel Avit for 17 yds to the FRES 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:34
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
45.7%
E.J. Warner pass incomplete to Ezekiel AvitSimilar
Q1 12:25
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+11
45.8%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Ezekiel Avit for 11 yds to the HAW 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:51
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-2
45.8%
Bryson Donelson run for a loss of 2 yards to the HAW 45Similar
Q1 11:06
2ND & 12
OPP 45
+5
46.0%
E.J. Warner run for 5 yds to the HAW 40Similar
Q1 10:32
3RD & 7
OPP 40
+8
46.0%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Ezekiel Avit for 8 yds to the HAW 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:56
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+5
45.9%
Rayshon Luke run for 5 yds to the HAW 27Similar
Q1 9:18
2ND & 5
OPP 27
+2
45.9%
Rayshon Luke run for 2 yds to the HAW 25Similar
Q1 8:08
3RD & 3
OPP 25
0
46.2%
Bryson Donelson run for no gain to the HAW 25 Bryson Donelson fumbled, recovered by FRES Bryson DonelsonSimilar
Q1 7:59
4TH & 3
OPP 25
+43
46.7%
Dylan Lynch 43 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 11 yds · 2:3047% → 47%
Q1 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
47.0%
Micah Alejado pass complete to Pofele Ashlock for 2 yds to the HAW 27Similar
Q1 7:22
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+8
47.1%
Micah Alejado pass complete to Tama Uiliata for 8 yds to the HAW 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
47.4%
Micah Alejado pass complete to Devon Tauaefa for 4 yds to the HAW 39Similar
Q1 6:15
2ND & 6
OWN 39
0
48.1%
Micah Alejado pass incomplete to Brandon WhiteSimilar
Q1 6:04
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+1
47.5%
Micah Alejado pass complete to Landon Sims for 1 yd to the HAW 40Similar
Q1 5:38
4TH & 5
OWN 40
-4
47.2%
PENALTY Hawaii Illegal Substitution 4 yards from Hawaii40 to Hawaii36. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:20
4TH & 9
OWN 36
0
46.9%
Billy Gowers punt for 24 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FRES 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:4653% → 52%
Q1 5:12
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
46.8%
Bryson Donelson run for 5 yds to the FRES 45Similar
Q1 4:40
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+4
46.7%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Bryson Donelson for 4 yds to the FRES 49Similar
Q1 3:56
3RD & 1
OWN 49
-2
46.8%
Brandon Ramirez run for a loss of 2 yards to the FRES 47Similar
Q1 3:26
4TH & 3
OWN 47
0
47.6%
Nick Verdugo punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Tama Uiliata at the HAW 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 4FUMBLE
6 plays · 11 yds · 3:0548% → 49%
Q1 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+3
47.9%
Landon Sims run for 3 yds to the HAW 10Similar
Q1 2:45
2ND & 7
OWN 10
+7
48.1%
Micah Alejado pass complete to Pofele Ashlock for 7 yds to the HAW 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:01
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+4
48.5%
Micah Alejado pass complete to Karsyn Pupunu for 4 yds to the HAW 21Similar
Q1 1:35
2ND & 6
OWN 21
+8
48.6%
Landon Sims run for 8 yds to the HAW 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-5
49.0%
Micah Alejado sacked by Merhauti Xepera for a loss of 5 yards to the HAW 24Similar
Q1 0:15
2ND & 15
OWN 24
-6
48.8%
run for a loss of 6 yards to the HAW 18 fumbled, recovered by FRES Jahzon JacksSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 5MISSED FG
7 plays · 10 yds · 2:2254% → 52%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+5
45.9%
Rayshon Luke run for 5 yds to the HAW 13Similar
Q2 14:48
2ND & 5
OPP 13
+5
45.9%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Ezekiel Avit for 5 yds to the HAW 18Similar
Q2 14:04
3RD & 10
OPP 18
+11
46.8%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Jahlil McClain for 11 yds to the HAW 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-1
45.9%
Bryson Donelson run for a loss of 1 yard to the HAW 8Similar
Q2 12:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
45.9%
E.J. Warner pass incomplete to Josiah FreemanSimilar
Q2 12:42
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
46.6%
E.J. Warner pass incomplete to Jordan BrownSimilar
Q2 12:38
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+26
47.9%
Dylan Lynch 26 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 6PUNT
8 plays · 41 yds · 3:4650% → 50%
Q2 12:24
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+27
49.6%
Micah Alejado pass complete to Brandon White for 27 yds to the HAW 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-5
51.4%
Micah Alejado sacked by Deijon Laffitte for a loss of 5 yards to the HAW 42Similar
Q2 11:19
2ND & 15
OWN 42
+9
50.3%
Micah Alejado pass complete to Jackson Harris for 9 yds to the FRES 49Similar
Q2 10:41
3RD & 6
OPP 49
+11
51.6%
Micah Alejado pass complete to Tama Uiliata for 11 yds to the FRES 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:11
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
52.5%
Landon Sims run for 2 yds to the FRES 36Similar
Q2 9:32
2ND & 8
OPP 36
-3
52.8%
Micah Alejado sacked by Ryan Wilson for a loss of 3 yards to the FRES 39Similar
Q2 8:49
3RD & 11
OPP 39
0
51.6%
Micah Alejado pass incomplete to Tama UiliataSimilar
Q2 8:38
4TH & 11
OPP 39
0
50.3%
Billy Gowers punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FRES 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 7SF
3 plays · -10 yds · 1:1151% → 47%
Q2 8:31
1ST & 10
OWN 3
-4
49.3%
Fresno State Penalty, Offensive Holding (-4 Yards) to the FRES 4Similar
Q2 7:20
1ST & 9
OWN 4
+3
48.4%
Bryson Donelson run for 3 yds to the FRES 7Similar
Q2 7:20
2ND & 6
OWN 7
0
53.1%
E.J. Warner sacked by De'Jon Benton for a loss of 14 yards for a SAFETY E.J. Warner fumbled, recovered by FRES Julian Polendo , return for 0 yards for a SAFETYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:1654% → 53%
Q2 6:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
53.9%
Micah Alejado pass incomplete to Cam BarfieldSimilar
Q2 6:29
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
53.6%
Cam Barfield run for 6 yds to the HAW 31Similar
Q2 6:16
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
53.4%
Micah Alejado pass incomplete to Karsyn PupunuSimilar
Q2 6:16
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+7
52.7%
Billy Gowers punt for 50 yds , Jordan Malau'ulu returns for 7 yds to the FRES 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 9FUMBLE RETURN TD
11 plays · 11 yds · 4:2247% → 38%
Q2 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
52.9%
Rayshon Luke run for 2 yds to the FRES 28Similar
Q2 5:32
2ND & 8
OWN 28
+7
52.9%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Rayshon Luke for 7 yds to the FRES 35Similar
Q2 5:06
3RD & 1
OWN 35
+4
52.2%
Bryson Donelson run for 4 yds to the FRES 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-10
51.9%
(04:32) Shotgun Donelson,Bryson rush right for 35 yards gain to the Hawaii26 (Benton,De'jon) PENALTY FSU Holding (Polendo,Julian) 10 yards from FSU39 to FSU29. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:00
1ST & 20
OWN 29
+20
53.9%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Kamron Beachem for 20 yds to the FRES 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:38
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
51.0%
Bryson Donelson run for 5 yds to the HAW 46Similar
Q2 2:38
2ND & 5
OPP 46
0
50.8%
E.J. Warner pass incomplete to Richie Anderson IIISimilar
Q2 2:33
3RD & 5
OPP 46
-5
51.3%
(02:33) Shotgun Warner,E.J. pass complete short middle to Farrar,Jayon caught at Hawaii35, for 11 yards to the Hawaii35 (Manuma,Peter) PENALTY FSU Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Farrar,Jayon) 5 yards from Hawaii46 to FSU49. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 10
OWN 49
+10
52.6%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Rayshon Luke for 10 yds to the HAW 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:47
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+37
62.4%
Jamih Otis 37 Yd Fumble Return (Kansei Matsuzawa Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 10TD
9 plays · 57 yds · 0:4936% → 51%
Q2 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+13
64.0%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Josiah Freeman for 13 yds to the HAW 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:58
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
63.0%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Bryson Donelson for 5 yds to the HAW 39Similar
Q2 0:56
2ND & 5
OPP 39
+15
62.3%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Ezekiel Avit for 15 yds to the HAW 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:53
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+4
61.3%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Richie Anderson III for 4 yds to the HAW 20Similar
Q2 0:44
2ND & 6
OPP 20
+7
61.3%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Jordan Malau'ulu for 7 yds to the HAW 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:38
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
49.1%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Richie Anderson III for 13 yds for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 11INT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0756% → 56%
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
55.6%
Micah Alejado pass complete to Landon Sims for 2 yds to the HAW 27Similar
Q2 0:23
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
55.7%
Micah Alejado pass intercepted Camryn Bracha return for no gain to the FRES 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 12END OF HALF
3 plays · 1 yds · 0:1648% → 46%
Q2 0:16
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+7
51.9%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Bryson Donelson for 7 yds to the FRES 38Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 17
OWN 38
+8
54.2%
Rayshon Luke run for 8 yds to the FRES 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 13PUNT
9 plays · 15 yds · 3:1456% → 55%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
56.1%
Micah Alejado pass complete to Cam Barfield for 1 yd to the HAW 26Similar
Q3 14:29
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+4
56.0%
Cam Barfield run for 4 yds to the HAW 30Similar
Q3 13:36
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+6
55.6%
Micah Alejado pass complete to Karsyn Pupunu for 6 yds to the HAW 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:21
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-5
57.5%
PENALTY Hawaii False Start (Milovale,James) 5 yards from Hawaii36 to Hawaii31. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:55
1ST & 15
OWN 31
+6
56.4%
Cam Barfield run for 6 yds to the HAW 37Similar
Q3 12:21
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+3
57.2%
Micah Alejado run for 3 yds to the HAW 40Similar
Q3 11:45
3RD & 6
OWN 40
0
56.7%
Micah Alejado pass incomplete to Jackson HarrisSimilar
Q3 11:38
4TH & 6
OWN 40
0
55.4%
Billy Gowers punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Jordan Malau'ulu at the FRES 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 2:0044% → 41%
Q3 11:31
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
56.1%
Bryson Donelson run for no gain to the FRES 15Similar
Q3 10:46
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+3
56.7%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Josiah Freeman for 3 yds to the FRES 18Similar
Q3 10:09
3RD & 7
OWN 18
0
57.6%
(10:23) Shotgun Warner,E.J. pass incomplete deep left to Avit,Ezekiel thrown to Hawaii48 PENALTY Hawaii Holding offsetting FSU Personal Foul offsetting. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:45
3RD & 7
OWN 18
0
57.8%
E.J. Warner pass incomplete to Jordan Malau'uluSimilar
Q3 9:31
4TH & 7
OWN 18
0
59.3%
Nick Verdugo punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Tama Uiliata at the HAW 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 15FG
9 plays · 34 yds · 1:2460% → 65%
Q3 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
60.3%
Micah Alejado pass complete to Brandon White for 4 yds to the HAW 48Similar
Q3 8:46
2ND & 6
OWN 48
+12
60.8%
Landon Sims run for 12 yds to the FRES 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:16
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
61.7%
Micah Alejado pass complete to Tama Uiliata for 3 yds to the FRES 37Similar
Q3 8:16
2ND & 7
OPP 37
0
61.6%
Micah Alejado pass incomplete to Jackson HarrisSimilar
Q3 7:54
3RD & 7
OPP 37
+9
61.1%
Micah Alejado pass complete to Pofele Ashlock for 9 yds to the FRES 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:37
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
62.9%
Micah Alejado pass incomplete to Landon SimsSimilar
Q3 7:32
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+6
62.8%
Micah Alejado pass complete to Cam Barfield for 6 yds to the FRES 22Similar
Q3 7:31
3RD & 4
OPP 22
0
61.4%
Micah Alejado pass incomplete to Karsyn PupunuSimilar
Q3 7:31
4TH & 4
OPP 22
+40
65.3%
Kansei Matsuzawa 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 16TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:3338% → 58%
Q3 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
61.8%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Josiah Freeman for 6 yds to the FRES 31Similar
Q3 6:49
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+2
60.4%
Rayshon Luke run for 2 yds to the FRES 33Similar
Q3 5:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
42.2%
Bryson Donelson run for 1 yd for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 17FG
9 plays · 40 yds · 2:2549% → 59%
Q3 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
49.3%
Cam Barfield run for 1 yd to the HAW 26Similar
Q3 5:08
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+4
49.3%
Micah Alejado pass complete to Karsyn Pupunu for 4 yds to the HAW 30Similar
Q3 4:35
3RD & 5
OWN 30
-5
48.2%
Hawai'i Penalty, False Start (Ethan Spencer) to the HAW 26Similar
Q3 4:09
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+38
47.1%
Micah Alejado pass complete to Pofele Ashlock for 38 yds to the FRES 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:53
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
54.3%
Landon Sims run for no gain to the FRES 36Similar
Q3 3:23
2ND & 10
OPP 36
0
54.3%
Micah Alejado pass incomplete to Landon SimsSimilar
Q3 3:23
3RD & 10
OPP 36
+2
52.8%
Micah Alejado pass complete to Pofele Ashlock for 2 yds to the FRES 34Similar
Q3 3:15
4TH & 8
OPP 34
+52
59.3%
Kansei Matsuzawa 52 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 18MISSED FG
11 plays · 39 yds · 5:1543% → 39%
Q3 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+28
57.3%
E.J. Warner run for 28 yds to the HAW 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:25
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-2
52.9%
Bryson Donelson run for a loss of 2 yards to the HAW 49Similar
Q3 1:34
2ND & 12
OPP 49
0
54.7%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Rayshon Luke for no gain to the HAW 49Similar
Q3 0:48
3RD & 12
OPP 49
+15
56.6%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Jordan Brown for 15 yds to the HAW 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-10
52.3%
(00:26) Shotgun Gilliam,Elijah rush middle for 1 yard gain to the Hawaii33 (Mendiola-Jensen,Kilinahe) PENALTY FSU Holding (Penright,Toreon) 10 yards from Hawaii34 to Hawaii44. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:47
1ST & 20
OPP 44
+5
55.5%
Rayshon Luke run for 5 yds to the HAW 39Similar
Q4 14:06
2ND & 15
OPP 39
-15
56.0%
Fresno State Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the HAW 45Similar
Q4 13:26
3RD & 21
OPP 45
+9
58.4%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Bryson Donelson for 9 yds to the HAW 36Similar
Q4 12:46
4TH & 12
OPP 36
+54
61.3%
Dylan Lynch 54 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 19INT
3 plays · 5 yds · 1:1465% → 65%
Q4 12:36
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
64.8%
Micah Alejado run for 5 yds to the HAW 41Similar
Q4 12:01
2ND & 5
OWN 41
0
66.7%
Micah Alejado pass complete to Pofele Ashlock for no gain to the HAW 41Similar
Q4 11:22
3RD & 5
OWN 41
-42
64.9%
Micah Alejado pass intercepted Al'zillion Hamilton return for 42 yds to the HAW 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 20FG
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:2246% → 56%
Q4 11:16
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
53.6%
Bryson Donelson run for no gain to the HAW 12Similar
Q4 10:37
2ND & 10
OPP 12
0
53.7%
E.J. Warner pass incomplete to Josiah FreemanSimilar
Q4 10:28
3RD & 10
OPP 12
+3
56.6%
E.J. Warner run for 3 yds to the HAW 9Similar
Q4 9:54
4TH & 7
OPP 9
+27
43.9%
Dylan Lynch 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 21INT TD
10 plays · 32 yds · 4:2748% → 19%
Q4 9:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
47.7%
Micah Alejado pass complete to Tama Uiliata for 9 yds to the HAW 34Similar
Q4 9:23
2ND & 1
OWN 34
0
51.7%
Micah Alejado run for no gain to the HAW 34Similar
Q4 8:48
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+4
49.5%
Landon Sims run for 4 yds to the HAW 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
50.2%
Micah Alejado pass incomplete to Brandon WhiteSimilar
Q4 8:01
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+6
49.6%
Micah Alejado run for 6 yds to the HAW 44Similar
Q4 7:17
3RD & 4
OWN 44
+3
51.2%
Cam Barfield run for 3 yds to the HAW 47Similar
Q4 6:35
4TH & 1
OWN 47
+9
49.9%
Brandon White run for 9 yds to the FRES 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
54.0%
Micah Alejado run for 1 yd to the FRES 43Similar
Q4 5:20
2ND & 9
OPP 43
-59
18.5%
K'Vion Thunderbird 59 Yd Interception Return (Dylan Lynch Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 22DOWNS
9 plays · 38 yds · 1:5315% → 13%
Q4 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
14.5%
(05:19) PENALTY Hawaii False Start (Spencer,Ethan) 5 yards from Hawaii25 to Hawaii20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:11
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+46
14.2%
Micah Alejado pass complete to Tama Uiliata for 16 yds to the HAW 36 for a 1ST down Fresno State Penalty, Roughing The Passer (Jahzon Jacks) to the HAW 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
15.3%
Micah Alejado pass complete to Jackson Harris for 8 yds to the HAW 44Similar
Q4 5:11
2ND & 2
OWN 44
+18
18.2%
Micah Alejado pass complete to Pofele Ashlock for 4 yds to the FRES 48 for a 1ST down Fresno State Penalty, Personal Foul (RL Miller) to the FRES 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:11
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
19.0%
Micah Alejado pass incomplete to Tama UiliataSimilar
Q4 5:11
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+1
18.4%
Landon Sims run for 1 yd to the FRES 37Similar
Q4 5:11
3RD & 9
OPP 37
0
17.5%
Micah Alejado pass incomplete to Karsyn PupunuSimilar
Q4 3:27
4TH & 9
OPP 37
0
12.9%
Micah Alejado pass incomplete to Pofele AshlockSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 23PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 0:2192% → 92%
Q4 3:27
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-1
7.8%
Bryson Donelson run for a loss of 1 yard to the FRES 36Similar
Q4 3:22
2ND & 11
OWN 36
+2
8.0%
Rayshon Luke run for 2 yds to the FRES 38Similar
Q4 3:17
3RD & 9
OWN 38
0
8.1%
E.J. Warner pass incomplete to Josiah FreemanSimilar
Q4 3:06
4TH & 9
OWN 38
0
8.2%
Nick Verdugo punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Tama Uiliata at the HAW 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 24TD
16 plays · 77 yds · 2:5613% → 44%
Q4 3:06
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+8
12.5%
Micah Alejado pass complete to Cam Barfield for 8 yds to the HAW 31Similar
Q4 3:06
2ND & 2
OWN 31
+14
14.8%
Micah Alejado run for 14 yds to the HAW 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:06
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+14
15.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun Alejado,Micah pass incomplete short middle to Harris,Jackson thrown to FSU42, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY FSU Pass Interference (Hamilton,Al'zillion) 14 yards from Hawaii45 to FSU41, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:06
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+5
17.0%
Brandon White run for 5 yds to the FRES 36Similar
Q4 3:06
2ND & 5
OPP 36
-3
17.7%
Micah Alejado sacked by Finn Claypool for a loss of 3 yards to the FRES 39Similar
Q4 1:09
3RD & 8
OPP 39
0
10.4%
Micah Alejado pass incomplete to Pofele AshlockSimilar
Q4 1:02
4TH & 8
OPP 39
+10
8.4%
Micah Alejado run for 10 yds to the FRES 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:56
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-5
13.6%
(01:01) Shotgun Alejado,Micah pass incomplete deep right to Ashlock,Pofele thrown to FSU04 PENALTY Hawaii Illegal Motion 5 yards from FSU29 to FSU34. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:51
1ST & 15
OPP 34
0
11.4%
Micah Alejado pass incomplete to Brandon WhiteSimilar
Q4 0:44
2ND & 15
OPP 34
+10
10.7%
Micah Alejado pass complete to Blaze Kamoku for 10 yds to the FRES 24Similar
Q4 0:39
3RD & 5
OPP 24
+6
11.7%
Micah Alejado pass complete to Pofele Ashlock for 6 yds to the FRES 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:27
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+8
13.4%
Micah Alejado run for 8 yds to the FRES 10Similar
Q4 0:14
2ND & 2
OPP 10
0
13.8%
Micah Alejado pass incomplete to Blaze KamokuSimilar
Q4 0:10
3RD & 2
OPP 10
+10
43.9%
Micah Alejado pass complete to Blaze Kamoku for 10 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 25END OF GAME
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0089% → 89%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-1
10.7%
E. Warner takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 5:20
K'Vion Thunderbird 59 Yd Interception Return (Dylan Lynch Kick)
-35.5
TD · Q4 0:10
Timeout Hawai'i, clock 00:10
-33.1
TD · Q4 0:10
Micah Alejado pass complete to Blaze Kamoku for 10 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
+32
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com