Hawai'i

Profile vs. FBS, 2014

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.0617th
  Defense+0.1735th
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense36.2%7th
  Defense41.3%60th
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.2156th
  Defense+1.3210th
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.0222nd
  Defense+0.0469th
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.1121st
  Defense+0.3314th
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense39.7%2nd
  Defense44.2%77th
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense30.3%22nd
  Defense35.3%30th
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense2.6426th
  Defense2.9343rd
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense18.6%61st
  Defense16.6%16th
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense1.5%81st
  Defense1.8%38th

Percentiles among the 128 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2014

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Hawai'i allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. L
   WASH
2. L
   ORST
3. W
   UNI
4. L
   COLO
5. L
   RICE
6. W
   WYO
7. L
   SDSU
8. L
   NEV
9. L
   USU
10. L
    CSU
11. W
    SJSU
12. W
    UNLV
13. L
    FRES

Bars above the line: better than expected for Hawai'i.

Players, 2014

1. Ikaika WoolseyQB285 plays · +0.128 pts/play · 129th of 199 QBs
   0.68WAR0.19 to 1.15
2. Scott HardingWR101 plays · +0.207 pts/play · 11th of 469 WRs
   0.39WAR0.25 to 0.53
3. Steven LakalakaRB106 plays · +0.102 pts/play · 114th of 350 RBs
   0.20WAR0.12 to 0.27
4. Joey IosefaRB97 plays · +0.106 pts/play · 121st of 350 RBs
   0.19WAR0.12 to 0.26
5. Diocemy Saint JusteRB52 plays · +0.131 pts/play · 180th of 350 RBs
   0.13WAR0.08 to 0.17
6. Tyler HaddenPK14 plays · +0.426 pts/play · 53rd of 114 kickers
   0.11WAR0.07 to 0.15
7. Marcus KempWR60 plays · +0.094 pts/play · 191st of 469 WRs
   0.11WAR0.02 to 0.20
8. Quinton PedrozaWR58 plays · +0.059 pts/play · 297th of 469 WRs
   0.06WAR−0.02 to 0.15

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Hawai'i's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2014

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Hawai'i's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 3 clear-cut ones account for 0.04 of the 0.16 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. at SDSUQ3 15:00 4th & 1 at HAW 26, down 3Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.8 pts
2. vs ORSTQ4 9:10 4th & 24 at ORST 34, down 15Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal−1.6 pts
3. vs UNIQ3 3:47 4th & 12 at UNI 35, up 7Punted; the numbers favored a field goal−1.1 pts
4. vs UNIQ3 6:53 4th & 3 at UNI 48, up 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−1.0 pts
5. vs USUQ2 6:37 4th & 1 at HAW 34, down 14Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.8 pts
6. vs USUQ3 15:00 4th & 1 at HAW 34, down 14Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.8 pts
7. vs UNIQ4 13:16 4th & 4 at UNI 48, up 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.8 pts
8. vs USUQ3 2:49 4th & 11 at USU 25, down 21Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal (close call)−0.8 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2014

58th of 128 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Hawai'i's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7. Based on 11 of 13 games; 2 have no play-by-play to score.

1. L

   WASH
2. L

   ORST
3. W

   UNI
4. L

   COLO
5. L

   RICE
6. W

   WYO
7. L

   SDSU
8. L

   NEV
9. L

   USU
10. L

    CSU
11. W

    SJSU
12. W

    UNLV
13. L

    FRES

What moved it, 2014

Every game starts at Hawai'i's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard−0.40
• Possession & field position−0.02
• Clock−0.02
• Timeouts+0.01
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff+0.57

Game by game

• ORSTL 30-38 vs ORST18% → 4%Before kickoff −32 · On the field −15: Scoreboard −29, Clock −2
• UNIW 27-24 vs UNI57% → 95%Before kickoff +7 · On the field +38: Scoreboard +33, Timeouts +2
• COLOL 12-21 at COLO27% → 4%Before kickoff −23 · On the field −23: Scoreboard −27, Timeouts −1
• RICEL 14-28 at RICE33% → 1%Before kickoff −17 · On the field −32: Scoreboard −31, Timeouts −2
• WYOW 38-28 vs WYO65% → 96%Before kickoff +15 · On the field +31: Scoreboard +32, Timeouts +2
• SDSUL 10-20 at SDSU20% → 3%Before kickoff −30 · On the field −17: Scoreboard −23, Timeouts −1
• USUL 14-35 vs USU41% → 1%Before kickoff −9 · On the field −40: Scoreboard −46, Clock −2
• CSUL 22-49 at CSU12% → 0%Before kickoff −38 · On the field −12: Scoreboard −15
• SJSUW 13-0 at SJSU23% → 97%Before kickoff −27 · On the field +74: Scoreboard +62, Possession & field position −2
• UNLVW 37-35 vs UNLV69% → 96%Before kickoff +19 · On the field +27: Scoreboard +27, Timeouts +2
• FRESL 21-28 at FRES21% → 3%Before kickoff −29 · On the field −18: Scoreboard −24, Timeouts −1

Points of win probability, from Hawai'i's side.

Closest call

STAN 20-23 HAW (2025) - Hawai'i dropped to a 0.3% win probability before pulling it out.