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UNI

Northern Iowa 24 at Hawai'i 27

HAW
2014 · Week 3 · Sep 14, 2014 · Aloha Stadium
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Win probability · HAW
modelHAW aheadUNI aheadconfidence bandkey playHAW scoreUNI score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FUMBLETDFGTDFGTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 13:30 · Scott Harding punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Deiondre' Hall at the NIowa 13
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+24.5+12.30−12.3−24.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 11Home team on offense+0.0Pregame prior+6.7Garbage-time factor+0.0Score differential+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0Blowout margin+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 6:37: Ikaika Woolsey pass complete to Harold Moleni for 15 yds for a TD, (Tyler Hadden KICK) — HAW win probability +6.9 pts (now 70%) (top driver: HAW has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 0:00: Michael Schmadeke 41 yd FG GOOD — UNI win probability +5.9 pts (now 34%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  3. TD · Q3 0:37: Steven Lakalaka run for 30 yds for a TD, (Tyler Hadden KICK) — HAW win probability +14.7 pts (now 93%) (top driver: HAW has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 13:16: Sawyer Kollmorgen pass complete to Kevin Vereen Jr. for 9 yds for a TD, (Michael Schmadeke KICK) — UNI win probability +14.1 pts (now 27%) (top driver: UNI has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:56: Sawyer Kollmorgen pass complete to Darrian Miller for 11 yds for a TD, (Michael Schmadeke KICK) — UNI win probability +26.8 pts (now 37%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
HAW made the numbers' call on 11 of 16UNI made the numbers' call on 8 of 14
  1. Q1 15:00UNI 4th & 5 at UNI 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.8%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:30HAW 4th & 20 at UNI 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.3%−0.2
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:32HAW 4th & 3 at HAW 43, tied
    Close callPunted · 55.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.1%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:27UNI 4th & 3 at UNI 29, tied
    Close callPunted · 44.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.7%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:21HAW 4th & 6 at HAW 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.1%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 15:00UNI 4th & 12 at midfield, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.6%−0.5
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.1%
    average punt
  7. Q2 12:48HAW 4th & 7 at UNI 17, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 56.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.0%−0.3
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    56.3%
    80% to make
    Punt
    53.9%−2.5
    average punt
  8. Q2 12:42UNI 4th & 5 at UNI 30, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.4%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.6%
    average punt
  9. Q2 11:19HAW 4th & 1 at HAW 37, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 56.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    57.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    56.1%−1.3
    average punt
  10. Q2 9:38UNI 4th & 6 at HAW 38, down 3
    Close callPunted · 43.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.1%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    42.4%−0.6
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    42.6%−0.5
    average punt
  11. Q2 5:37UNI 4th & 6 at HAW 44, down 10
    Close callPunted · 32.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.6%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    31.4%−1.2
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    32.1%−0.4
    average punt
  12. Q2 5:23HAW 4th & 10 at HAW 20, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.4%−1.2
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.6%
    average punt
  13. Q2 3:12UNI 4th & 4 at HAW 34, down 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.0 ptsPunted · 31.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    30.1%−0.9
    47% to make
    PuntTheir call
    29.0%−2.0
    average punt
  14. Q2 1:20HAW 4th & 3 at UNI 41, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 71.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    71.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    69.8%−1.4
    32% to make
    Punt
    69.7%−1.5
    average punt
  15. Q3 14:50HAW 4th & 20 at HAW 18, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.4%−3.6
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.0%
    average punt
  16. Q3 13:27UNI 4th & 14 at UNI 14, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.5%−3.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.8%
    average punt
  17. Q3 12:01HAW 4th & 1 at UNI 32, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 70.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    70.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    67.3%−3.3
    51% to make
    Punt
    66.0%−4.6
    average punt
  18. Q3 12:01HAW 4th & 21 at UNI 39, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.8%−2.3
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    68.9%−0.2
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    69.1%
    average punt
  19. Q3 9:38UNI 4th & 11 at UNI 16, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.5%−2.4
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.9%
    average punt
  20. Q3 6:53HAW 4th & 3 at UNI 48, up 7
    Close callPunted · 75.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.2%−1.0
    average punt
  21. Q3 5:38UNI 4th & 1 at UNI 29, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.8 ptsPunted · 27.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.7%−2.8
    average punt
  22. Q3 3:47HAW 4th & 12 at UNI 35, up 7
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.1 ptsPunted · 74.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.6%−0.9
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    75.5%
    45% to make
    PuntTheir call
    74.4%−1.1
    average punt
  23. Q3 1:34UNI 4th & 7 at UNI 4, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.9%−2.6
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.5%
    average punt
  24. Q4 13:16HAW 4th & 4 at UNI 48, up 7
    Close callPunted · 82.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.0%−0.8
    average punt
  25. Q4 10:42UNI 4th & 9 at UNI 20, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.1%−0.6
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.7%
    average punt
  26. Q4 9:45HAW 4th & 7 at HAW 44, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.9%−1.3
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.2%
    average punt
  27. Q4 8:44UNI 4th & 9 at UNI 36, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.3%−1.1
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.5%
    average punt
  28. Q4 7:30HAW 4th & 3 at HAW 37, up 7
    Close callPunted · 86.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.7%−0.6
    average punt
  29. Q4 3:19HAW 4th & 10 at UNI 20, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 92.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.6%−0.9
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    91.6%
    75% to make
    Punt
    87.0%−4.6
    average punt
  30. Q4 3:14UNI 4th & 10 at HAW 44, down 10
    Close callWent for it · 7.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.6%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    6.2%−0.5
    27% to make
    Punt
    6.7%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
HAW made the numbers' call on 2 of 2UNI made the numbers' call on 1 of 3
  1. Q1 6:38UNI Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 6:37HAW Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 0:37HAW Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 13:16UNI Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    17.4%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    17.4%
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 1:56UNI Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    13.4%−0.4
    97% to make
    Go for two
    13.8%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNIDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0043% → 43%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
56.8%
David Johnson run for 5 yds to the NIowa 26Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 26
0
56.8%
Sawyer Kollmorgen run for no gain to the NIowa 26Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 26
0
56.8%
Sawyer Kollmorgen pass incomplete to David JohnsonSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 5
OWN 26
+10
56.8%
Logan Bieghler punt for 44 yds , Scott Harding returns for 10 yds to the Hawa 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 12 yds · 0:0057% → 57%
Q1 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
57.0%
Steven Lakalaka run for 9 yds to the Hawa 49Similar
Q1 13:30
2ND & 1
OWN 49
+13
57.1%
Steven Lakalaka run for 13 yds to the NIowa 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-1
57.1%
Ikaika Woolsey run for a loss of 1 yard to the NIowa 39Similar
Q1 13:30
2ND & 11
OPP 39
0
57.1%
Ikaika Woolsey pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 13:30
3RD & 11
OPP 39
-9
57.0%
Ikaika Woolsey sacked by Ronelle McNeil for a loss of 9 yards to the NIowa 48Similar
Q1 13:30
4TH & 20
OPP 48
0
56.9%
Scott Harding punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Deiondre' Hall at the NIowa 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNIDrive 3FUMBLE TD
3 plays · -13 yds · 1:1843% → 41%
Q1 11:37
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-1
57.0%
David Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the NIowa 12Similar
Q1 11:37
2ND & 11
OWN 12
+7
57.1%
David Johnson run for 7 yds to the NIowa 19Similar
Q1 10:19
3RD & 4
OWN 19
0
58.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 19 yards TEAM fumbled, recovered by Hawa Beau Yap for a TD, (Tyler Hadden KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNIDrive 4TD
9 plays · 80 yds · 3:3541% → 44%
Q1 10:13
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-3
58.7%
Darrian Miller run for a loss of 3 yards to the NIowa 17Similar
Q1 10:13
2ND & 13
OWN 17
+15
58.8%
HAWAII Penalty, Defensive pass interference (N/A) to the NIowa 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:13
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
58.6%
Darrian Miller run for 2 yds to the NIowa 34Similar
Q1 10:13
2ND & 8
OWN 34
+2
58.6%
Sawyer Kollmorgen pass complete to Chad Owens for 2 yds to the NIowa 36Similar
Q1 10:13
3RD & 6
OWN 36
+58
58.7%
Sawyer Kollmorgen pass complete to Billy Williams for 58 yds to the Hawa 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
58.0%
David Johnson run for 2 yds to the Hawa 4Similar
Q1 10:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
58.0%
David Johnson run for 3 yds to the Hawa 1Similar
Q1 6:38
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
56.2%
Sawyer Kollmorgen run for 1 yd for a TD, (Michael Schmadeke KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0058% → 57%
Q1 6:32
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
57.5%
Steven Lakalaka run for 4 yds to the Hawa 40Similar
Q1 6:32
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+3
57.8%
Steven Lakalaka run for 3 yds to the Hawa 43Similar
Q1 6:32
3RD & 3
OWN 43
0
57.7%
Ikaika Woolsey pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 6:32
4TH & 3
OWN 43
0
57.2%
Scott Harding punt for 46 yds, downed at the NIowa 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNIDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 0:0043% → 42%
Q1 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+6
57.1%
David Johnson run for 6 yds to the NIowa 17Similar
Q1 5:27
2ND & 4
OWN 17
+5
57.0%
David Johnson run for 5 yds to the NIowa 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+1
57.0%
Sawyer Kollmorgen run for 1 yd to the NIowa 23Similar
Q1 5:27
2ND & 9
OWN 23
+2
57.0%
David Johnson run for 2 yds to the NIowa 25Similar
Q1 5:27
3RD & 7
OWN 25
+4
57.3%
Sawyer Kollmorgen pass complete to David Johnson for 4 yds to the NIowa 29Similar
Q1 5:27
4TH & 3
OWN 29
0
57.6%
Logan Bieghler punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Scott Harding at the Hawa 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0058% → 57%
Q1 2:21
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
57.7%
Steven Lakalaka run for 6 yds to the Hawa 41Similar
Q1 2:21
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+3
58.6%
Steven Lakalaka run for 3 yds to the Hawa 44Similar
Q1 2:21
3RD & 1
OWN 44
-5
58.3%
HAWAII Penalty, false start (N/A) to the Hawa 39Similar
Q1 2:21
3RD & 6
OWN 39
0
57.6%
Ikaika Woolsey pass incomplete to Scott Harding, broken up by Deiondre' HallSimilar
Q1 2:21
4TH & 6
OWN 39
0
57.1%
Scott Harding punt for 21 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNIDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 10 yds · 1:0844% → 43%
Q1 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
55.7%
Sawyer Kollmorgen pass complete to Brett LeMaster for 9 yds to the NIowa 49Similar
Q1 1:08
2ND & 1
OWN 49
+3
55.1%
David Johnson run for 3 yds to the Hawa 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:08
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
55.1%
Sawyer Kollmorgen pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 1:08
2ND & 10
OPP 48
-2
55.3%
David Johnson run for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 12
50
0
56.2%
Sawyer Kollmorgen pass incomplete to Brett LeMasterSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 12
50
0
57.0%
Logan Bieghler punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Scott Harding at the Hawa 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 9FG
8 plays · 72 yds · 2:0358% → 59%
Q2 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
57.5%
Ikaika Woolsey pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q2 14:51
2ND & 10
OWN 11
+50
57.4%
Ikaika Woolsey pass complete to Marcus Kemp for 50 yds to the NIowa 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:51
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
59.3%
Steven Lakalaka run for 2 yds to the NIowa 37Similar
Q2 14:51
2ND & 8
OPP 37
+17
59.3%
Keelan Ewaliko run for 17 yds to the NIowa 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:51
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
59.6%
Ikaika Woolsey pass complete to Quinton Pedroza for no gain to the NIowa 20Similar
Q2 14:51
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+3
59.6%
Steven Lakalaka run for 3 yds to the NIowa 17Similar
Q2 14:51
3RD & 7
OPP 17
0
59.1%
Ikaika Woolsey pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q2 12:48
4TH & 7
OPP 17
+36
59.3%
Tyler Hadden 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNIDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0041% → 40%
Q2 12:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
59.2%
Darrian Miller run for 3 yds to the NIowa 28Similar
Q2 12:42
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+2
59.1%
Sawyer Kollmorgen run for 2 yds to the NIowa 30Similar
Q2 12:42
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
59.4%
Sawyer Kollmorgen pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q2 12:42
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+9
60.4%
Logan Bieghler punt for 51 yds , Scott Harding returns for 9 yds to the Hawa 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 11FUMBLE
5 plays · 14 yds · 0:0059% → 60%
Q2 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
59.2%
Ikaika Woolsey pass complete to Ammon Barker for 5 yds to the Hawa 33Similar
Q2 11:19
2ND & 5
OWN 33
+4
59.8%
Dominique Small run for 4 yds to the Hawa 37Similar
Q2 11:19
3RD & 1
OWN 37
0
59.8%
Dominique Small run for no gain to the Hawa 37Similar
Q2 11:19
4TH & 1
OWN 37
+2
58.5%
Steven Lakalaka run for 2 yds to the Hawa 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
59.8%
Dominique Small run for 3 yds to the Hawa 42 Dominique Small fumbled, forced by Tim Kilfoy, recovered by NIowa Ronelle McNeil , return for no gain to the Hawa 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNIDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0043% → 42%
Q2 9:38
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+4
57.2%
Brion Carnes run for 4 yds to the Hawa 38Similar
Q2 9:38
2ND & 6
OPP 38
+1
57.0%
David Johnson run for 1 yd to the Hawa 37Similar
Q2 9:38
3RD & 5
OPP 37
-1
57.5%
Sawyer Kollmorgen pass complete to Kevin Vereen Jr. for a loss of 1 yard to the Hawa 38Similar
Q2 9:38
4TH & 6
OPP 38
+12
58.5%
Logan Bieghler punt for 30 yds , Scott Harding returns for 12 yds to the Hawa 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 13TD
4 plays · 80 yds · 1:0160% → 70%
Q2 7:38
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+52
60.4%
Ikaika Woolsey pass complete to Scott Harding for 52 yds to the NIowa 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:38
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+14
63.2%
Ikaika Woolsey pass complete to Quinton Pedroza for 14 yds to the NIowa 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:38
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-1
63.2%
Steven Lakalaka run for a loss of 1 yard to the NIowa 15Similar
Q2 6:37
2ND & 11
OPP 15
+15
70.1%
Ikaika Woolsey pass complete to Harold Moleni for 15 yds for a TD, (Tyler Hadden KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNIDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 0:5033% → 30%
Q2 6:27
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
66.7%
Sawyer Kollmorgen pass incomplete to Brett LeMaster, broken up by Dee MaggittSimilar
Q2 6:27
2ND & 10
OPP 48
-9
67.0%
Sawyer Kollmorgen sacked by Jeremy Castro for a loss of 9 yards to the NIowa 43Similar
Q2 5:37
3RD & 19
OWN 43
+13
70.6%
Sawyer Kollmorgen pass complete to Kevin Vereen Jr. for 13 yds to the Hawa 44Similar
Q2 5:37
4TH & 6
OPP 44
0
70.0%
Logan Bieghler punt for 44 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0071% → 69%
Q2 5:23
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
70.7%
Ikaika Woolsey pass incomplete to Marcus KempSimilar
Q2 5:23
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
70.5%
Ikaika Woolsey pass incomplete to Quinton PedrozaSimilar
Q2 5:23
3RD & 10
OWN 20
0
69.7%
Ikaika Woolsey pass incomplete to Marcus KempSimilar
Q2 5:23
4TH & 10
OWN 20
0
69.0%
Scott Harding punt for 31 yds, downed at the NIowa 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNIDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 1:4431% → 28%
Q2 4:56
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+11
69.0%
Brion Carnes run for 11 yds to the Hawa 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:56
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
68.7%
Brion Carnes run for 5 yds to the Hawa 35Similar
Q2 4:56
2ND & 5
OPP 35
+1
67.6%
Darrian Miller run for 1 yd to the Hawa 34Similar
Q2 4:56
3RD & 4
OPP 34
0
68.6%
Brion Carnes pass incomplete to Kevin Vereen Jr., broken up by Ne'Quan PhillipsSimilar
Q2 3:12
4TH & 4
OPP 34
0
72.1%
Logan Bieghler punt for 33 yds, downed at the Hawa 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 17DOWNS
15 plays · 52 yds · 1:4273% → 74%
Q2 3:02
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+7
72.7%
Ikaika Woolsey pass complete to Marcus Kemp for 7 yds to the Hawa 8Similar
Q2 3:02
2ND & 3
OWN 8
+11
72.5%
Ikaika Woolsey pass complete to Quinton Pedroza for 11 yds to the Hawa 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:02
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+3
73.0%
Steven Lakalaka run for 3 yds to the Hawa 22Similar
Q2 3:02
2ND & 7
OWN 22
+8
72.9%
Ikaika Woolsey pass complete to Harold Moleni for 8 yds to the Hawa 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:02
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
73.2%
Ikaika Woolsey pass incomplete to Quinton Pedroza, broken up by Tim KilfoySimilar
Q2 3:02
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+4
72.9%
Diocemy Saint Juste run for 4 yds to the Hawa 34Similar
Q2 3:02
3RD & 6
OWN 34
+8
72.7%
Ikaika Woolsey pass complete to Marcus Kemp for 8 yds to the Hawa 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:02
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
74.2%
Ikaika Woolsey run for 4 yds to the Hawa 46Similar
Q2 1:20
2ND & 6
OWN 46
0
75.0%
Ikaika Woolsey pass incomplete to Ammon BarkerSimilar
Q2 1:20
3RD & 6
OWN 46
+6
74.3%
Ikaika Woolsey pass complete to Justin Vele for 6 yds to the NIowa 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
75.3%
Ikaika Woolsey pass incomplete to Scott HardingSimilar
Q2 1:20
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+7
75.2%
Ikaika Woolsey pass complete to Quinton Pedroza for 7 yds to the NIowa 41Similar
Q2 1:20
3RD & 3
OPP 41
0
75.0%
Ikaika Woolsey pass incomplete to Harold Moleni, broken up by Makinton DorleantSimilar
Q2 1:20
4TH & 3
OPP 41
-6
73.9%
Ikaika Woolsey sacked by Adam Reth for a loss of 6 yards to the NIowa 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNIDrive 18FG
7 plays · 29 yds · 0:2728% → 34%
Q2 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
72.5%
Sawyer Kollmorgen pass incomplete to Chad OwensSimilar
Q2 0:27
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+6
72.9%
Sawyer Kollmorgen pass complete to David Johnson for 6 yds to the Hawa 47Similar
Q2 0:14
3RD & 4
OPP 47
+8
71.9%
Sawyer Kollmorgen pass complete to Brett LeMaster for 8 yds to the Hawa 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:14
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
71.4%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:14
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+15
71.9%
Sawyer Kollmorgen pass complete to Brett LeMaster for 15 yds to the Hawa 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+41
66.0%
Michael Schmadeke 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · -10 yds · 0:0070% → 67%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-2
69.8%
Steven Lakalaka run for a loss of 2 yards to the Hawa 26Similar
Q3 14:50
2ND & 12
OWN 26
-10
69.4%
HAWAII Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the Hawa 16Similar
Q3 14:50
2ND & 22
OWN 16
+2
69.2%
Ikaika Woolsey pass complete to Steven Lakalaka for 2 yds to the Hawa 18Similar
Q3 14:50
3RD & 20
OWN 18
0
68.2%
Ikaika Woolsey pass incomplete to Quinton Pedroza, broken up by Makinton DorleantSimilar
Q3 14:50
4TH & 20
OWN 18
0
67.3%
Scott Harding punt for 64 yds, downed at the NIowa 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNIDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 0:0031% → 29%
Q3 13:27
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-3
69.2%
David Johnson run for a loss of 3 yards to the NIowa 15Similar
Q3 13:27
2ND & 13
OWN 15
+4
69.6%
David Johnson run for 4 yds to the NIowa 19Similar
Q3 13:27
3RD & 9
OWN 19
0
70.6%
Sawyer Kollmorgen pass incomplete to Charles BrownSimilar
Q3 13:27
4TH & 9
OWN 19
-5
71.2%
NORTHERN IOWA Penalty, false start (Blake Willson) to the NIowa 14Similar
Q3 13:27
4TH & 14
OWN 14
+18
71.2%
Logan Bieghler punt for 45 yds , Scott Harding returns for 18 yds to the NIowa 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 21PUNT
8 plays · 2 yds · 0:0073% → 69%
Q3 12:01
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+6
73.3%
Ikaika Woolsey run for 6 yds to the NIowa 35Similar
Q3 12:01
2ND & 4
OPP 35
+3
73.6%
Ikaika Woolsey pass complete to Quinton Pedroza for 3 yds to the NIowa 32Similar
Q3 12:01
3RD & 1
OPP 32
0
72.5%
Ikaika Woolsey pass incomplete to Ammon Barker, broken up by Makinton DorleantSimilar
Q3 12:01
4TH & 1
OPP 32
+4
71.4%
Steven Lakalaka run for 4 yds to the NIowa 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:01
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-8
73.6%
Steven Lakalaka run for a loss of 8 yards to the NIowa 36Similar
Q3 12:01
2ND & 18
OPP 36
-3
72.1%
Diocemy Saint Juste run for a loss of 3 yards to the NIowa 39Similar
Q3 12:01
3RD & 21
OPP 39
0
70.9%
Ikaika Woolsey pass incomplete to Marcus KempSimilar
Q3 12:01
4TH & 21
OPP 39
0
69.2%
Scott Harding punt for 33 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNIDrive 22PUNT
7 plays · 10 yds · 0:0029% → 27%
Q3 9:38
1ST & 10
OWN 6
0
71.0%
Sawyer Kollmorgen pass incomplete to Brett LeMasterSimilar
Q3 9:38
2ND & 10
OWN 6
+7
71.3%
David Johnson run for 7 yds to the NIowa 13Similar
Q3 9:38
3RD & 3
OWN 13
+4
71.9%
Darrian Miller run for 4 yds to the NIowa 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:38
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-3
70.5%
Darrian Miller run for a loss of 3 yards to the NIowa 14Similar
Q3 9:38
2ND & 13
OWN 14
+2
71.0%
Sawyer Kollmorgen pass complete to Darrian Miller for 2 yds to the NIowa 16Similar
Q3 9:38
3RD & 11
OWN 16
0
72.1%
Sawyer Kollmorgen pass incomplete to Kevin Vereen Jr., broken up by Jalen RogersSimilar
Q3 9:38
4TH & 11
OWN 16
0
72.8%
Logan Bieghler punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Scott Harding at the Hawa 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0078% → 76%
Q3 6:53
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
77.6%
Steven Lakalaka run for 4 yds to the Hawa 49Similar
Q3 6:53
2ND & 6
OWN 49
0
77.8%
Ikaika Woolsey pass incomplete to Scott HardingSimilar
Q3 6:53
3RD & 6
OWN 49
+3
76.7%
Ikaika Woolsey run for 3 yds to the NIowa 48Similar
Q3 6:53
4TH & 3
OPP 48
0
75.7%
Scott Harding punt for 48 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNIDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0028% → 27%
Q3 5:38
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
71.7%
Darrian Miller run for 4 yds to the NIowa 24Similar
Q3 5:38
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+2
71.4%
Darrian Miller run for 2 yds to the NIowa 26Similar
Q3 5:38
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+3
72.4%
Darrian Miller run for 3 yds to the NIowa 29Similar
Q3 5:38
4TH & 1
OWN 29
+12
73.0%
Logan Bieghler punt for 41 yds , Scott Harding returns for 12 yds to the Hawa 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 25PUNT
9 plays · 23 yds · 0:0079% → 75%
Q3 3:47
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
78.5%
Jeremy Higgins pass complete to Marcus Kemp for 4 yds to the Hawa 46Similar
Q3 3:47
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+8
78.8%
Steven Lakalaka run for 8 yds to the NIowa 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:47
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
79.2%
Steven Lakalaka run for 4 yds to the NIowa 42Similar
Q3 3:47
2ND & 6
OPP 42
+4
79.2%
Diocemy Saint Juste run for 4 yds to the NIowa 38Similar
Q3 3:47
3RD & 2
OPP 38
+5
78.3%
NORTHERN IOWA Penalty, Defensive offside (Xavier Williams) to the NIowa 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:47
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-7
79.5%
Jeremy Higgins sacked by Xavier Williams for a loss of 7 yards to the NIowa 40Similar
Q3 3:47
2ND & 17
OPP 40
+5
77.9%
Steven Lakalaka run for 5 yds to the NIowa 35Similar
Q3 3:47
3RD & 12
OPP 35
0
77.5%
Jeremy Higgins pass incomplete to Quinton PedrozaSimilar
Q3 3:47
4TH & 12
OPP 35
0
75.1%
Scott Harding punt for 34 yds, downed at the NIowa 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNIDrive 26PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0024% → 22%
Q3 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+3
75.7%
David Johnson run for 3 yds to the NIowa 4Similar
Q3 1:34
2ND & 7
OWN 4
0
76.0%
Sawyer Kollmorgen pass incomplete to Charles BrownSimilar
Q3 1:34
3RD & 7
OWN 4
0
77.2%
Sawyer Kollmorgen pass incomplete to Brett LeMasterSimilar
Q3 1:34
4TH & 7
OWN 4
+13
77.9%
Logan Bieghler punt for 39 yds , Scott Harding returns for 13 yds to the NIowa 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 27TD
1 play · 30 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q3 0:37
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+30
92.6%
Steven Lakalaka run for 30 yds for a TD, (Tyler Hadden KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNIDrive 28TD
8 plays · 78 yds · 2:1312% → 27%
Q3 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+25
88.5%
Sawyer Kollmorgen pass complete to Brett LeMaster for 25 yds to the NIowa 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
87.1%
Sawyer Kollmorgen pass complete to Brett LeMaster for no gain to the NIowa 47Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+25
88.3%
Sawyer Kollmorgen pass complete to Charles Brown for 25 yds to the Hawa 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
86.8%
Sawyer Kollmorgen pass incomplete to Kevin Vereen Jr.Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+17
87.4%
Sawyer Kollmorgen pass complete to David Johnson for 17 yds to the Hawa 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+2
86.8%
David Johnson run for 2 yds to the Hawa 9Similar
Q4 13:16
2ND & 8
OPP 9
+9
72.8%
Sawyer Kollmorgen pass complete to Kevin Vereen Jr. for 9 yds for a TD, (Michael Schmadeke KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 29PUNT
8 plays · 27 yds · 0:0083% → 83%
Q4 13:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
83.4%
Steven Lakalaka run for 3 yds to the Hawa 28Similar
Q4 13:16
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+3
83.4%
Steven Lakalaka run for 3 yds to the Hawa 31Similar
Q4 13:16
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+15
82.8%
Jeremy Higgins pass complete to Ammon Barker for 15 yds to the Hawa 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:16
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
85.2%
Steven Lakalaka run for 5 yds to the NIowa 49Similar
Q4 13:16
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+2
85.3%
Steven Lakalaka run for 2 yds to the NIowa 47Similar
Q4 13:16
3RD & 3
OPP 47
-1
84.5%
Steven Lakalaka run for a loss of 1 yard to the NIowa 48Similar
Q4 13:16
4TH & 4
OPP 48
+4
83.1%
Scott Harding punt for 33 yds , Darrian Miller returns for 4 yds to the NIowa 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNIDrive 30PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0020% → 17%
Q4 10:42
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+1
80.4%
David Johnson run for 1 yd to the NIowa 20Similar
Q4 10:42
2ND & 9
OWN 20
0
80.7%
Sawyer Kollmorgen pass incomplete to Kevin Vereen Jr.Similar
Q4 10:42
3RD & 9
OWN 20
0
81.8%
Sawyer Kollmorgen pass incomplete to Chad OwensSimilar
Q4 10:42
4TH & 9
OWN 20
+2
82.7%
Logan Bieghler punt for 41 yds , Scott Harding returns for 2 yds to the Hawa 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 31PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0087% → 85%
Q4 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
86.7%
Diocemy Saint Juste run for no gain to the Hawa 41Similar
Q4 9:45
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+3
86.3%
Diocemy Saint Juste run for 3 yds to the Hawa 44Similar
Q4 9:45
3RD & 7
OWN 44
0
85.8%
Jeremy Higgins pass incomplete to Ammon BarkerSimilar
Q4 9:45
4TH & 7
OWN 44
+4
84.7%
Scott Harding punt for 37 yds , Darrian Miller returns for 4 yds to the NIowa 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNIDrive 32PUNT
5 plays · 13 yds · 0:0019% → 18%
Q4 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+12
80.9%
Sawyer Kollmorgen pass complete to David Johnson for 12 yds to the NIowa 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
79.9%
David Johnson run for 1 yd to the NIowa 36Similar
Q4 8:44
2ND & 9
OWN 36
0
79.8%
Sawyer Kollmorgen pass incomplete to David JohnsonSimilar
Q4 8:44
3RD & 9
OWN 36
0
81.0%
Sawyer Kollmorgen pass incomplete to Kevin Vereen Jr.Similar
Q4 8:44
4TH & 9
OWN 36
0
82.5%
Logan Bieghler punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Scott Harding at the Hawa 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 33PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0087% → 87%
Q4 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
87.1%
Steven Lakalaka run for 2 yds to the Hawa 32Similar
Q4 7:30
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+5
87.2%
Diocemy Saint Juste run for 5 yds to the Hawa 37Similar
Q4 7:30
3RD & 3
OWN 37
0
87.3%
Jeremy Higgins pass incomplete to Ammon Barker, broken up by Brett McMakinSimilar
Q4 7:30
4TH & 3
OWN 37
+1
86.5%
Scott Harding punt for 44 yds , Darrian Miller returns for 1 yd to the NIowa 20 Darrian Miller fumbled, recovered by Hawa Ne'Quan PhillipsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 34FG
5 plays · 0 yds · 2:3491% → 93%
Q4 5:53
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
91.0%
Steven Lakalaka run for no gain to the NIowa 20Similar
Q4 5:53
2ND & 10
OPP 20
-5
91.0%
HAWAII Penalty, false start (Sean Shigematsu) to the NIowa 25Similar
Q4 5:53
2ND & 15
OPP 25
+6
90.6%
Steven Lakalaka run for 6 yds to the NIowa 19Similar
Q4 5:53
3RD & 9
OPP 19
-1
90.4%
Steven Lakalaka run for a loss of 1 yard to the NIowa 20Similar
Q4 3:19
4TH & 10
OPP 20
+37
92.8%
Tyler Hadden 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNIDrive 35TD
10 plays · 70 yds · 1:188% → 37%
Q4 3:14
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+10
92.2%
HAWAII Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Ne'Quan Phillips) to the NIowa 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:14
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
91.5%
Sawyer Kollmorgen pass incomplete to Charles Brown, broken up by Ne'Quan PhillipsSimilar
Q4 3:14
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+16
91.8%
Sawyer Kollmorgen pass complete to Charles Brown for 16 yds to the Hawa 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:14
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
91.0%
Sawyer Kollmorgen pass incomplete to Chad OwensSimilar
Q4 3:14
2ND & 10
OPP 44
0
90.9%
Sawyer Kollmorgen pass incomplete to David JohnsonSimilar
Q4 3:14
3RD & 10
OPP 44
0
91.3%
Sawyer Kollmorgen pass incomplete to Brett LeMasterSimilar
Q4 3:14
4TH & 10
OPP 44
+34
92.5%
Sawyer Kollmorgen pass complete to David Johnson for 34 yds to the Hawa 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:14
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
89.7%
Sawyer Kollmorgen pass incomplete to Braden LehmanSimilar
Q4 1:56
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+11
62.9%
Sawyer Kollmorgen pass complete to Darrian Miller for 11 yds for a TD, (Michael Schmadeke KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 36END OF GAME
10 plays · 28 yds · 1:1788% → 95%
Q4 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+7
87.6%
Steven Lakalaka run for 7 yds to the Hawa 49Similar
Q4 1:47
2ND & 3
OWN 49
0
89.5%
Steven Lakalaka run for no gain to the Hawa 49Similar
Q4 1:42
3RD & 3
OWN 49
+18
88.6%
Jeremy Higgins pass complete to Justin Vele for 18 yds to the NIowa 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:42
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+6
91.3%
Steven Lakalaka run for 6 yds to the NIowa 27 Steven Lakalaka fumbled, forced by Brett McMakin, recovered by Hawa Harold MoleniSimilar
Q4 1:42
2ND & 4
OPP 27
0
91.3%
Steven Lakalaka run for no gain to the NIowa 27Similar
Q4 0:37
3RD & 4
OPP 27
-3
94.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the NIowa 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:56
Sawyer Kollmorgen pass complete to Darrian Miller for 11 yds for a TD, (Michael Schmadeke KICK)
-26.8
TD · Q3 0:37
Steven Lakalaka run for 30 yds for a TD, (Tyler Hadden KICK)
+14.7
TD · Q4 13:16
Sawyer Kollmorgen pass complete to Kevin Vereen Jr. for 9 yds for a TD, (Michael Schmadeke KICK)
-14.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com