2014 · Week 12 · Nov 15, 2014 · CEFCU Stadium
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Win probability · SJSU
modelSJSU aheadHAW aheadconfidence bandkey playSJSU scoreHAW score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:10 · Joe Gray pass complete to Andrew Vollert for 18 yds to the Hawa 4 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 0:18: Joey Iosefa run for 1 yd for a TD, (Tyler Hadden KICK) — HAW win probability +10.9 pts (now 53%) (top driver: HAW has the ball).
- MISSED FG · Q3 3:54: Michael Carrizosa 24 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by — HAW win probability +7.6 pts (now 66%) (top driver: SJSU has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 12:09: Keelan Ewaliko run for 4 yds to the SJSt 9 — HAW win probability +8.8 pts (now 80%) (top driver: HAW has the ball).
- FG · Q4 9:55: Tyler Hadden 32 yd FG GOOD — HAW win probability +8.7 pts (now 90%) (top driver: HAW has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 6:20: Joey Iosefa run for 12 yds to the Hawa 31 for a 1ST down — HAW win probability +7.0 pts (now 93%) (top driver: HAW has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
SJSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 7HAW made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
- Q1 15:00HAW 4th & 5 at HAW 30, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 24.4% before the snapGo for it24.4%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call24.4%average punt
- Q1 13:53SJSU 4th & 1 at HAW 25, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 75.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call75.4%71% to convertField goal75.3%−0.166% to makePunt74.9%−0.5average punt
- Q1 6:05SJSU 4th & 2 at HAW 24, tiedClose callKicked a field goal · 73.9% before the snapGo for it73.9%57% to convertField goalTheir call73.7%−0.268% to makePunt72.6%−1.2average punt
- Q1 6:05HAW 4th & 18 at HAW 16, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 26.0% before the snapGo for it25.6%−0.612% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call26.2%average punt
- Q1 2:18SJSU 4th & 3 at HAW 19, tiedClose callKicked a field goal · 73.0% before the snapGo for it73.1%51% to convertField goalTheir call73.0%−0.277% to makePunt71.5%−1.6average punt
- Q2 0:50HAW 4th & 1 at SJSU 6, up 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 40.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call41.4%69% to convertField goal39.5%−2.091% to makePunt33.0%−8.4average punt
- Q3 14:54SJSU 4th & 2 at HAW 35, down 10Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 49.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call49.5%57% to convertField goal47.6%−1.945% to makePunt46.9%−2.6average punt
- Q3 12:14HAW 4th & 9 at HAW 35, up 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.5% before the snapGo for it53.2%−1.831% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call55.0%average punt
- Q3 3:54SJSU 4th & 3 at HAW 7, down 10Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsKicked a field goal · 35.1% before the snapGo for it35.3%46% to convertField goalTheir call34.0%−1.391% to makePunt23.3%−11.9average punt
- Q3 3:54HAW 4th & 16 at HAW 9, up 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.5% before the snapGo for it58.7%−5.714% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call64.5%average punt
- Q4 15:00SJSU 4th & 1 at HAW 22, down 10Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 31.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call31.0%71% to convertField goal28.1%−2.972% to makePunt19.5%−11.5average punt
- Q4 13:44HAW 4th & 4 at HAW 34, up 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.3% before the snapGo for it70.0%−0.548% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call70.5%average punt
- Q4 9:55HAW 4th & 11 at SJSU 14, up 10Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 80.7% before the snapGo for it78.1%−2.123% to convertField goalTheir call80.2%84% to makePunt69.8%−10.4average punt
- Q4 7:27SJSU 4th & 4 at HAW 19, down 13Close callWent for it · 15.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call13.9%−0.547% to convertField goal14.4%77% to makePunt8.3%−6.1average punt
- Q4 1:21HAW 4th & 12 at HAW 49, up 13Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.1% before the snapGo for it96.7%−0.323% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call97.0%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
HAW made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q2 0:18HAW Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call50.7%97% to makeGo for two50.6%−0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartHAWDrive 1PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0023% → 23%
SJSUDrive 2DOWNS9 plays · 45 yds · 0:0077% → 77%
Q1 13:53
2ND & 10
50
+16
76.7%
Joe Gray pass complete to Jabari Carr for 16 yds to the Hawa 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 3INT6 plays · 19 yds · 0:0024% → 24%
Q1 11:13
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+13
76.0%
Ikaika Woolsey pass complete to Ammon Barker for 13 yds to the Hawa 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-3
75.7%
Ikaika Woolsey sacked by Tony Popovich for a loss of 3 yards to the Hawa 40Similar
Q1 11:13
2ND & 13
OWN 40
+4
75.9%
Ikaika Woolsey pass complete to Scott Harding for 4 yds to the Hawa 44Similar
Q1 11:13
3RD & 9
OWN 44
0
75.9%
Ikaika Woolsey pass intercepted Jimmy Pruitt return for no gain to the SJSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 4MISSED FG6 plays · 33 yds · 2:1876% → 75%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 5PUNT5 plays · -8 yds · 0:0026% → 25%
Q1 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-10
74.5%
IOSEFA, Joey rush left for 9 yards to the UH33 (BUHAGIAR, Vince), PENALTY UH holding (TUPAI, Elijah) 10 yards to the UH14, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:05
1ST & 20
OWN 14
0
74.6%
Ikaika Woolsey pass incomplete to Ammon Barker, broken up by Christian TagoSimilar
Q1 6:05
2ND & 20
OWN 14
0
74.6%
Ikaika Woolsey pass incomplete to Ammon Barker, broken up by Cleveland WallaceSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 6MISSED FG7 plays · 20 yds · 2:4075% → 74%
Q1 4:58
3RD & 8
OPP 37
+11
75.0%
Joe Gray pass complete to Hansell Wilson for 11 yds to the Hawa 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:58
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-3
75.4%
Joe Gray run for a loss of 3 yards to the Hawa 29 Joe Gray fumbled, recovered by SJSt Joe GraySimilar
Q1 4:58
2ND & 13
OPP 29
+10
75.2%
Joe Gray pass complete to Tyler Winston for 10 yds to the Hawa 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 7FG11 plays · 62 yds · 4:1527% → 30%
Q1 2:18
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+26
73.4%
Ikaika Woolsey pass complete to Joey Iosefa for 26 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:18
1ST & 10
50
+31
72.0%
Ikaika Woolsey pass complete to Keelan Ewaliko for 31 yds to the SJSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+5
70.7%
SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, Defensive offside (Tony Popovich) to the SJSt 14Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 21
0
71.0%
Ikaika Woolsey pass incomplete to Scott Harding, broken up by Cleveland WallaceSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 21
+3
71.8%
Ikaika Woolsey pass complete to Joey Iosefa for 3 yds to the SJSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 8INT15 plays · 72 yds · 0:0070% → 73%
Q2 13:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-7
70.4%
Joe Gray sacked by Niko Uti for a loss of 7 yards to the SJSt 18Similar
Q2 13:03
2ND & 17
OWN 18
+20
70.2%
Joe Gray pass complete to Tyler Winston for 20 yds to the SJSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:03
3RD & 8
OWN 40
+12
70.5%
Joe Gray pass complete to Chris Kearney for 12 yds to the Hawa 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:03
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+8
72.1%
Joe Gray pass complete to K.C. Pearce for 8 yds to the Hawa 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:03
2ND & 8
OPP 35
+5
72.6%
GRAY, Joe deep left pass incomplete to WINSTON, Tyler, PENALTY UH offside (TULIMASEALII, K) 5 yards to the UH30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:03
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+5
72.7%
Joe Gray pass complete to Tyler Winston for 5 yds to the Hawa 21Similar
Q2 13:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+30
72.7%
Joe Gray pass intercepted Daniel Lewis Jr. return for 20 yds to the Hawa 0 HAWAII Penalty, illegal block (Lance Williams) to the Hawa 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 9TD16 plays · 90 yds · 6:5434% → 53%
SJSUDrive 10END OF HALF3 plays · -2 yds · 0:0050% → 50%
SJSUDrive 11DOWNS8 plays · 25 yds · 0:0050% → 50%
Q3 14:54
2ND & 14
OWN 37
+4
48.6%
Joe Gray pass complete to Tyler Winston for 4 yds to the SJSt 41Similar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 10
OWN 41
+16
48.7%
Joe Gray pass complete to Tyler Ervin for 16 yds to the Hawa 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 10
OPP 43
+8
50.3%
Joe Gray pass complete to Hansell Wilson for 8 yds to the Hawa 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 12PUNT4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0055% → 53%
Q3 12:14
4TH & 9
OWN 35
+1
47.3%
Scott Harding punt for 47 yds , Tim Crawley returns for 1 yd to the SJSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 13MISSED FG15 plays · 74 yds · 6:2343% → 34%
Q3 10:17
3RD & 1
OWN 28
+8
42.7%
Joe Gray pass complete to Tyler Winston for 8 yds to the SJSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 14PUNT4 plays · -6 yds · 0:0067% → 64%
SJSUDrive 15FUMBLE8 plays · 35 yds · 1:4834% → 34%
Q3 1:48
3RD & 6
OPP 42
+11
33.6%
Joe Gray pass complete to Tim Crawley for 11 yds to the Hawa 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+3
33.6%
Brandon Monroe run for 3 yds to the Hawa 11 Brandon Monroe fumbled, forced by Ne'Quan Phillips, recovered by Hawa Benetton FonuaSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 16PUNT6 plays · 23 yds · 1:1671% → 71%
Q4 13:44
2ND & 8
OWN 13
+15
29.7%
Ikaika Woolsey pass complete to Donnie King Jr. for 15 yds to the Hawa 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:44
3RD & 4
OWN 34
0
28.2%
Ikaika Woolsey pass incomplete to Joey Iosefa, broken up by Garrett GuanellaSimilar
Q4 13:44
4TH & 4
OWN 34
0
29.2%
Scott Harding punt for 51 yds , Tim Crawley returns for no gain to the SJSt 13 Tim Crawley fumbled, recovered by Hawa Michael MartinSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 17FG5 plays · -1 yds · 2:1480% → 90%
Q4 10:39
3RD & 6
OPP 9
-10
17.8%
WOOLSEY, Ikaika right pass complete to PEDROZA, Quinto for 9 yards to the SJ0, clock 10:39, PENALTY UH holding (IOSEFA, Joey) 10 yards to the SJ19, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 18DOWNS17 plays · 56 yds · 2:2816% → 14%
Q4 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
15.7%
Joe Gray sacked by Kennedy Tulimasealii for a loss of 10 yards to the SJSt 12 Joe Gray fumbled, recovered by SJSt Tim Crawley , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 9:55
2ND & 23
OWN 12
+24
15.2%
Joe Gray pass complete to Tyler Winston for 24 yds to the SJSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:55
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
15.9%
Joe Gray pass complete to Tyler Winston for no gain to the SJSt 36Similar
Q4 9:55
3RD & 10
OWN 36
+16
15.3%
Joe Gray pass complete to Andrew Vollert for 16 yds to the Hawa 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:55
1ST & 15
OWN 47
+11
16.4%
Joe Gray pass complete to Hansell Wilson for 11 yds to the Hawa 42Similar
Q4 9:55
2ND & 4
OPP 42
+6
18.1%
Joe Gray pass complete to Tim Crawley for 6 yds to the Hawa 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 19PUNT12 plays · 30 yds · 4:5993% → 98%
Q4 6:20
2ND & 6
OPP 45
-5
6.0%
IOSEFA, Joey rush up middle for 3 yards to the SJ42 (OSSAI, William), PENALTY UH illegal motion (EWALIKO, Keelan) 5 yards to the 50 yardline, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:20
2ND & 11
50
-5
6.2%
IOSEFA, Joey rush up middle for loss of 5 yards to the UH45 (BUHAGIAR, Vince), PENALTY UH illegal shift 5 yards to the UH45, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 20END OF GAME10 plays · 94 yds · 0:002% → 3%
Q4 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+29
1.7%
Joe Gray pass complete to Tim Crawley for 29 yds to the SJSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-10
1.9%
GRAY, Joe left pass incomplete to CARR, Jabari, PENALTY SJ holding (SCHWEITZER, Wes) 10 yards to the SJ21, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:10
3RD & 4
OWN 37
+6
1.9%
Joe Gray pass complete to Andrew Vollert for 6 yds to the SJSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:10
3RD & 10
OWN 43
+35
1.8%
Joe Gray pass complete to Tim Crawley for 35 yds to the Hawa 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
2.9%
Joe Gray pass incomplete to Tyler Winston, broken up by Ne'Quan PhillipsSimilar
Q4 1:10
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+18
2.7%
Joe Gray pass complete to Andrew Vollert for 18 yds to the Hawa 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:18
Joey Iosefa run for 1 yd for a TD, (Tyler Hadden KICK)
-10.9
KEY PLAY · Q4 12:09
Keelan Ewaliko run for 4 yds to the SJSt 9
-8.8
FG · Q4 9:55
Tyler Hadden 32 yd FG GOOD
-8.7