Hawai'i

Profile vs. FBS, 2018

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.1667th
  Defense+0.2016th
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense46.1%77th
  Defense44.8%32nd
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.2043rd
  Defense+1.2628th
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.0228th
  Defense+0.0937th
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.2673rd
  Defense+0.366th
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense53.2%89th
  Defense50.4%25th
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense31.4%33rd
  Defense32.3%56th
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense3.1986th
  Defense2.9443rd
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense18.5%65th
  Defense17.4%30th
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense17.6%25th
  Defense14.1%15th

Percentiles among the 130 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2018

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Hawai'i allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. W
   CSU
2. W
   NAVY
3. W
   RICE
4. L
   ARMY
5. W
   DUQ
6. W
   SJSU
7. W
   WYO
8. L
   BYU
9. L
   NEV
10. L
    FRES
11. L
    USU
12. W
    UNLV
13. W
    SDSU
14. L
    LT

Bars above the line: better than expected for Hawai'i.

Players, 2018

1. Cole McDonaldQB438 plays · +0.274 pts/play · 10th of 225 QBs
   2.25WAR1.56 to 3.04
2. John UrsuaWR109 plays · +0.141 pts/play · 18th of 434 WRs
   0.29WAR0.11 to 0.48
3. Fred Holly IIIRB97 plays · +0.147 pts/play · 161st of 351 RBs
   0.27WAR0.21 to 0.33
4. Cedric Byrd IIWR81 plays · +0.146 pts/play · 31st of 434 WRs
   0.22WAR0.12 to 0.33
5. Chevan CordeiroQB69 plays · +0.157 pts/play · 180th of 225 QBs
   0.20WAR0.08 to 0.33
6. Dayton FurutaRB73 plays · +0.134 pts/play · 221st of 351 RBs
   0.18WAR0.13 to 0.23
7. JoJo WardWR74 plays · +0.108 pts/play · 95th of 434 WRs
   0.15WAR0.04 to 0.27
8. Stan GaudionP43 plays · +0.149 pts/play · 16th of 91 punters
   0.12WAR0.04 to 0.19

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Hawai'i's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2018

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  344344120th of 130Roster talent: 344, 120th of 130 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  121121108th of 130Recruiting: 121, 108th of 130 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  30%30%115th of 129Returning production: 30%, 115th of 129 in FBS
• SP+ rating

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  −10.4−10.4103rd of 130SP+ rating: −10.4, 103rd of 130 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 130 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2018

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Hawai'i's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 3 clear-cut ones account for 0.06 of the 0.09 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. at SDSUQ4 4:10 4th & 5 at SDSU 44, tiedPunted; the numbers favored going for it−2.7 pts
2. vs NAVYQ2 0:00 4th & 4 at NAVY 4, up 21Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−1.7 pts
3. vs NEVQ3 1:33 4th & 11 at NEV 19, down 12Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal−1.5 pts
4. vs NEVQ4 7:03 4th & 14 at NEV 34, down 19Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal (close call)−0.8 pts
5. vs USUQ2 4:10 4th & 11 at USU 27, down 25Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal (close call)−0.6 pts
6. at CSUQ4 9:33 4th & 4 at HAW 48, up 17Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.4 pts
7. at LTQ4 6:49 4th & 5 at LT 18, down 17Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal (close call)−0.3 pts
8. at CSUQ1 1:18 4th & 3 at CSU 3, tiedKicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.3 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2018

8th of 130 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Hawai'i's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. W

   CSU
2. W

   NAVY
3. W

   RICE
4. L

   ARMY
5. W

   DUQ
6. W

   SJSU
7. W

   WYO
8. L

   BYU
9. L

   NEV
10. L

    FRES
11. L

    USU
12. W

    UNLV
13. W

    SDSU
14. L

    LT

What moved it, 2018

Every game starts at Hawai'i's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard+0.79
• Possession & field position+0.02
• Clock−0.23
• Timeouts+0.33
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff+0.73

Game by game

• CSUW 43-34 at CSU13% → 96%Before kickoff −37 · On the field +83: Scoreboard +56, Clock +4
• NAVYW 59-41 vs NAVY16% → 100%Before kickoff −34 · On the field +83: Scoreboard +57, Timeouts +2
• RICEW 43-29 vs RICE86% → 95%Before kickoff +36 · On the field +9: Scoreboard +20, Possession & field position −1
• ARMYL 21-28 at ARMY31% → 4%Before kickoff −19 · On the field −27: Scoreboard −30, Timeouts −2
• DUQW 42-21 vs DUQ99% → 100%Before kickoff +49 · On the field +1: Scoreboard +3
• SJSUW 44-41 at SJSU67% → 77%Before kickoff +17 · On the field +10: Scoreboard +28, Timeouts +17
• WYOW 17-13 vs WYO40% → 90%Before kickoff −10 · On the field +50: Scoreboard +29, Possession & field position +2
• BYUL 23-49 at BYU19% → 0%Before kickoff −31 · On the field −19: Scoreboard −22
• NEVL 22-40 vs NEV50% → 1%Before kickoff 0 · On the field −49: Scoreboard −51, Clock −1
• FRESL 20-50 at FRES4% → 0%Before kickoff −46 · On the field −4: Scoreboard −7
• USUL 17-56 vs USU12% → 0%Before kickoff −38 · On the field −11: Scoreboard −16
• UNLVW 35-28 vs UNLV64% → 96%Before kickoff +14 · On the field +32: Scoreboard +32, Possession & field position +1
• SDSUW 31-30 at SDSU11% → 59%Before kickoff −39 · On the field +48: Scoreboard +17, Timeouts +17
• LTL 14-31 at LT41% → 1%Before kickoff −9 · On the field −40: Scoreboard −38, Timeouts −2

Points of win probability, from Hawai'i's side.

Closest call

STAN 20-23 HAW (2025) - Hawai'i dropped to a 0.3% win probability before pulling it out.