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Win probability · HAW
modelHAW aheadWYO aheadconfidence bandkey playHAW scoreWYO score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 8:25 · Ryan Meskell 39 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q3 8:14: Chevan Cordeiro pass intercepted for a TD Carl Granderson return for 61 yds for a TD (Cooper Rothe KICK) — WYO win probability +14.4 pts (now 64%) (top driver: HAW has the ball).
- TD · Q3 0:48: Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Cedric Byrd for 5 yds for a TD (Ryan Meskell KICK) — HAW win probability +21.7 pts (now 62%) (top driver: HAW has the ball).
- FG · Q4 5:31: Cooper Rothe 23 yd FG GOOD — WYO win probability +17.9 pts (now 72%) (top driver: WYO has the ball).
- TD · Q4 1:26: Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to JoJo Ward for 38 yds for a TD (Ryan Meskell KICK) — HAW win probability +61.1 pts (now 93%) (top driver: HAW has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 1:19: Tyler Vander Waal pass complete to James Price for 5 yds to the Wyom 37 — WYO win probability +15.4 pts (now 24%) (top driver: WYO has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
HAW made the numbers' call on 7 of 8WYO made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
- Q1 15:00HAW 4th & 7 at HAW 34, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 42.3% before the snapGo for it42.3%−0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call42.4%average punt
- Q1 8:06WYO 4th & 5 at HAW 23, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 56.0% before the snapGo for it55.9%−<0.140% to convertField goalTheir call55.9%70% to makePunt55.0%−1.0average punt
- Q1 7:03HAW 4th & 2 at WYO 4, down 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 44.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call44.1%50% to convertField goal43.9%−0.293% to makePunt42.7%−1.4average punt
- Q2 15:00WYO 4th & 1 at WYO 13, up 3Close callPunted · 54.9% before the snapGo for it55.6%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call55.0%−0.7average punt
- Q2 10:44WYO 4th & 12 at WYO 33, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.4% before the snapGo for it53.3%−1.523% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call54.9%average punt
- Q2 10:22HAW 4th & 1 at WYO 26, down 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 46.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call46.1%71% to convertField goal44.5%−1.664% to makePunt40.7%−5.4average punt
- Q2 8:25HAW 4th & 6 at WYO 21, down 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 45.7% before the snapGo for it45.1%−0.238% to convertField goalTheir call45.4%74% to makePunt40.4%−4.9average punt
- Q2 8:18WYO 4th & 26 at WYO 9, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 50.9% before the snapGo for it48.6%−2.16% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call50.7%average punt
- Q2 5:24HAW 4th & 15 at WYO 38, tiedClose callPunted · 48.3% before the snapGo for it47.0%−0.717% to convertField goal47.7%38% to makePuntTheir call47.5%−0.2average punt
- Q3 14:59WYO 4th & 14 at WYO 30, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 50.3% before the snapGo for it48.4%−2.618% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call51.0%average punt
- Q3 8:14HAW 4th & 6 at HAW 42, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.5% before the snapGo for it33.7%−1.040% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call34.7%average punt
- Q3 3:48WYO 4th & 13 at WYO 8, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.2% before the snapGo for it65.4%−3.518% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call68.9%average punt
- Q4 15:00WYO 4th & 2 at HAW 41, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 51.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call52.7%57% to convertField goal47.7%−5.032% to makePunt48.6%−4.1average punt
- Q4 11:47HAW 4th & 17 at HAW 45, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 52.1% before the snapGo for it48.4%−6.514% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call54.8%average punt
- Q4 5:31WYO 4th & 5 at HAW 6, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 52.6% before the snapGo for it49.2%−0.133% to convertField goalTheir call49.3%91% to makePunt24.3%−25.0average punt
- Q4 4:08HAW 4th & 1 at HAW 41, down 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 37.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call36.4%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt28.6%−7.8average punt
- Q4 0:09WYO 4th & 21 at HAW 35, down 4Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 20.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call11.8%9% to convertField goal11.1%−0.745% to makePunt10.4%−1.4average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
HAW made the numbers' call on 2 of 2WYO made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q3 8:14WYO Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call64.4%97% to makeGo for two64.2%−0.245% to convert
- Q3 0:48HAW Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call50.1%97% to makeGo for two49.9%−0.345% to convert
- Q4 1:26HAW Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call79.9%97% to makeGo for two78.7%−1.245% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartHAWDrive 1PUNT7 plays · 16 yds · 0:0040% → 40%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+6
39.9%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to John Ursua for 6 yds to the Hawa 24Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
39.9%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Marcus Armstrong-Brown for 5 yds to the Hawa 36Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 36
-2
39.9%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Dayton Furuta for a loss of 2 yards to the Hawa 34Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 34
0
39.9%
Chevan Cordeiro pass incomplete to John Ursua, broken up by Marcus EppsSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 7
OWN 34
+14
39.9%
Stan Gaudion punt for 46 yds , Austin Conway returns for 14 yds to the Wyom 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 2FG9 plays · 43 yds · 3:5859% → 58%
Q1 10:51
3RD & 13
OPP 31
+8
41.1%
Tyler Vander Waal pass complete to Raghib Ismail Jr. for 8 yds to the Hawa 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 3DOWNS16 plays · 74 yds · 0:5742% → 44%
Q1 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
41.6%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to John Ursua for 5 yds to the Hawa 27Similar
Q1 7:03
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-6
43.2%
Chevan Cordeiro sacked by Youhanna Ghaifan for a loss of 6 yards to the Hawa 30Similar
Q1 7:03
2ND & 16
OWN 30
+6
42.9%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to JoJo Ward for 6 yds to the Hawa 36Similar
Q1 7:03
3RD & 10
OWN 36
+14
42.8%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Cedric Byrd for 14 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:03
2ND & 7
OPP 34
+10
44.3%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to John Ursua for 10 yds to the Wyom 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 4PUNT4 plays · 9 yds · 0:1256% → 56%
HAWDrive 5FUMBLE2 plays · 28 yds · 0:0045% → 46%
WYODrive 6PUNT6 plays · 8 yds · 1:5657% → 54%
HAWDrive 7FG8 plays · 14 yds · 1:5748% → 50%
Q2 10:22
2ND & 1
OPP 26
0
48.4%
Chevan Cordeiro pass incomplete to John Ursua, broken up by Youhanna GhaifanSimilar
Q2 10:22
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
48.4%
Chevan Cordeiro pass incomplete to Marcus Armstrong-Brown, broken up by Keyon BlakenbakerSimilar
Q2 10:22
3RD & 6
OPP 21
0
47.2%
Chevan Cordeiro pass incomplete to John Ursua, broken up by Youhanna GhaifanSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 8PUNT6 plays · -16 yds · 0:0052% → 50%
Q2 8:18
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-10
47.1%
WYOMING Penalty, Offensive holding (Keegan Cryder) to the Wyom 20Similar
Q2 8:18
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+12
48.1%
Tyler Vander Waal pass complete to James Price for 12 yds to the Wyom 32Similar
Q2 8:18
3RD & 3
OWN 32
-23
47.5%
Tyler Vander Waal sacked by KK Padello for a loss of 23 yards to the Wyom 9 Tyler Vander Waal fumbled, recovered by Wyom Nico Evans , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 8:18
4TH & 26
OWN 9
+6
50.1%
Dontae Crow punt for 46 yds , Justice Augafa returns for 6 yds to the Wyom 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 9PUNT6 plays · 11 yds · 0:0052% → 49%
WYODrive 10END OF HALF8 plays · 40 yds · 2:0651% → 54%
Q2 0:13
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
45.2%
Tyler Vander Waal pass incomplete to James Price, broken up by Rojesterman Farris IISimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 11PUNT5 plays · -4 yds · 0:0055% → 52%
Q3 14:59
3RD & 9
OWN 35
-5
46.6%
Tyler Vander Waal sacked by KK Padello for a loss of 5 yards to the Wyom 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 12INT TD11 plays · 34 yds · 4:5850% → 36%
Q3 13:12
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
50.5%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to JoJo Ward for 6 yds to the Hawa 41Similar
Q3 13:12
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+6
51.2%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Marcus Armstrong-Brown for 6 yds to the Hawa 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:12
2ND & 10
OPP 44
-2
53.4%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to JoJo Ward for a loss of 2 yards to the Wyom 46Similar
Q3 13:12
3RD & 12
OPP 46
+5
50.8%
WYOMING Penalty, Defensive offside (Ravontae Holt) to the Wyom 41Similar
Q3 8:14
3RD & 7
OPP 41
+61
36.3%
Chevan Cordeiro pass intercepted for a TD Carl Granderson return for 61 yds for a TD (Cooper Rothe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 13PUNT6 plays · 17 yds · 0:0033% → 33%
WYODrive 14PUNT6 plays · -3 yds · 1:4070% → 67%
Q3 5:28
2ND & 10
OWN 11
-3
30.4%
Tyler Vander Waal sacked by Solomon Matautia for a loss of 3 yards to the Wyom 8Similar
Q3 3:48
4TH & 13
OWN 8
+2
32.7%
Dontae Crow punt for 42 yds , Justice Augafa returns for 2 yds to the Wyom 10 WYOMING Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Tyree Mayfield) to the Wyom 33 Justice Augafa fumbled,Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 15TD5 plays · 33 yds · 2:4840% → 62%
WYODrive 16DOWNS8 plays · 24 yds · 0:4851% → 52%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 17PUNT6 plays · 4 yds · 0:0059% → 54%
Q4 11:47
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-10
61.2%
HAWAII Penalty, Offensive holding (J.R. Hensley) to the Hawa 42Similar
Q4 11:47
2ND & 19
OWN 43
0
57.1%
Chevan Cordeiro pass incomplete to John Ursua, broken up by Antonio HullSimilar
Q4 11:47
3RD & 19
OWN 43
+2
55.4%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to John Ursua for 2 yds to the Hawa 45Similar
Q4 11:47
4TH & 17
OWN 45
0
54.1%
Stan Gaudion punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Dontae Crow at the Wyom 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 18FG8 plays · 79 yds · 3:3549% → 72%
Q4 9:06
2ND & 7
OPP 24
+13
43.6%
Tyler Vander Waal pass complete to Austin Fort for 13 yds to the Hawa 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 19TD13 plays · 68 yds · 3:5838% → 93%
Q4 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
38.3%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Cedric Byrd for 4 yds to the Hawa 36Similar
Q4 4:08
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+8
38.2%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Marcus Armstrong-Brown for 8 yds to the Wyom 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:08
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+9
40.2%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Marcus Armstrong-Brown for 9 yds to the Wyom 37Similar
Q4 4:08
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-3
42.8%
Chevan Cordeiro sacked by Carl Granderson for a loss of 3 yards to the Wyom 38Similar
Q4 1:26
2ND & 13
OPP 38
+38
93.3%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to JoJo Ward for 38 yds for a TD (Ryan Meskell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 20END OF GAME15 plays · 54 yds · 1:1024% → 10%
Q4 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
76.5%
Tyler Vander Waal pass complete to James Price for 5 yds to the Wyom 37Similar
Q4 1:19
2ND & 5
OWN 37
+10
74.6%
Tyler Vander Waal pass complete to Austin Conway for 10 yds to the Wyom 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:19
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+7
74.3%
Tyler Vander Waal pass complete to Austin Fort for 7 yds to the Hawa 46Similar
Q4 1:19
3RD & 3
OPP 46
+7
71.5%
Tyler Vander Waal pass complete to Raghib Ismail Jr. for 7 yds to the Hawa 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:31
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+15
79.9%
HAWAII Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Manu Hudson-Rasmussen) to the Hawa 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:31
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
75.0%
Tyler Vander Waal pass incomplete to James Price, broken up by Eugene FordSimilar
Q4 0:31
2ND & 10
OPP 24
-6
76.4%
Tyler Vander Waal sacked by Zeno Choi for a loss of 6 yards to the Hawa 30Similar
Q4 0:09
4TH & 21
OPP 35
+21
90.0%
Tyler Vander Waal pass complete to James Price for 21 yds to the Hawa 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:26
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to JoJo Ward for 38 yds for a TD (Ryan Meskell KICK)
+61.1
TD · Q3 0:48
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Cedric Byrd for 5 yds for a TD (Ryan Meskell KICK)
+21.7
FG · Q4 5:31
Cooper Rothe 23 yd FG GOOD
-17.9