2018 · Week 13 · Nov 24, 2018 · Qualcomm Stadium
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Win probability · SDSU
modelSDSU aheadHAW aheadconfidence bandkey playSDSU scoreHAW score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 8:38 · Ryan Meskell 22 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 5:11: Cole McDonald run for 1 yd for a TD (Ryan Meskell KICK) — HAW win probability +6.8 pts (now 26%) (top driver: HAW has the ball).
- TD · Q2 1:19: Cole McDonald pass complete to Cedric Byrd for 13 yds for a TD (Ryan Meskell KICK) — HAW win probability +8.7 pts (now 39%) (top driver: HAW has the ball).
- TD · Q4 6:07: Ryan Agnew pass complete to Isaac Lessard for 13 yds for a TD HAWAII Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined (John Baron II KICK) — SDSU win probability +33.9 pts (now 63%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
- TD · OT 0:00: Cole McDonald pass complete to JoJo Ward for 10 yds for a TD (Ryan Meskell KICK) — HAW win probability +23.2 pts (now 80%) (top driver: HAW has the ball).
- TD · OT 0:00: Juwan Washington run for 25 yds for a TD Timeout HAWAII, clock 00:00 (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — SDSU win probability +21.5 pts (now 41%) (top driver: offense timeouts not recorded for this play).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
SDSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 9HAW made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
- Q1 15:00SDSU 4th & 2 at SDSU 48, tiedClose callPunted · 87.4% before the snapGo for it87.4%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call87.4%−0.1average punt
- Q1 8:38HAW 4th & 5 at SDSU 5, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 14.8% before the snapGo for it14.7%−<0.133% to convertField goalTheir call14.7%92% to makePunt14.2%−0.5average punt
- Q1 8:20HAW 4th & 8 at HAW 27, down 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.8% before the snapGo for it13.8%−0.133% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call14.0%average punt
- Q1 7:27SDSU 4th & 17 at SDSU 28, up 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.3% before the snapGo for it85.1%−0.313% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call85.5%average punt
- Q2 14:46SDSU 4th & 1 at HAW 4, up 4Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 83.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call83.7%65% to convertField goal83.0%−0.693% to makePunt81.3%−2.4average punt
- Q2 5:01SDSU 4th & 1 at SDSU 39, down 3Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsPunted · 75.1% before the snapGo for it75.5%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call74.0%−1.5average punt
- Q2 0:53SDSU 4th & 4 at SDSU 41, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.9% before the snapGo for it58.4%−0.248% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call58.7%average punt
- Q3 14:53HAW 4th & 13 at HAW 19, up 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.6% before the snapGo for it38.2%−1.919% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call40.1%average punt
- Q3 10:29SDSU 4th & 10 at HAW 34, down 10Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 51.2% before the snapGo for it50.3%−0.330% to convertField goalTheir call50.6%47% to makePunt49.9%−0.7average punt
- Q3 10:29HAW 4th & 5 at HAW 30, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.3% before the snapGo for it42.5%−0.641% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call43.2%average punt
- Q3 9:38SDSU 4th & 8 at HAW 42, down 7Close callPunted · 56.8% before the snapGo for it57.4%34% to convertField goal55.9%−1.530% to makePuntTheir call57.2%−0.2average punt
- Q4 15:00SDSU 4th & 21 at SDSU 31, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.7% before the snapGo for it35.1%−7.38% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call42.4%average punt
- Q4 14:13HAW 4th & 14 at HAW 30, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.8% before the snapGo for it58.8%−3.118% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call61.9%average punt
- Q4 6:07SDSU 4th & 1 at HAW 13, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 30.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call30.6%71% to convertField goal26.8%−3.985% to makePunt13.0%−17.6average punt
- Q4 4:10HAW 4th & 5 at SDSU 44, tiedNumbers favored go for it by 2.7 ptsPunted · 48.3% before the snapGo for it47.8%41% to convertField goal41.7%−6.127% to makePuntTheir call45.1%−2.7average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SDSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3HAW made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
- Q1 8:20SDSU Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call86.0%97% to makeGo for two86.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 5:20SDSU Touchdown, up 10 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call86.4%97% to makeGo for two86.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 14:52HAW Touchdown, down 5 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call17.1%97% to makeGo for two17.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 5:11HAW Touchdown, up 2 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call25.1%97% to makeGo for two25.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:19HAW Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call39.1%97% to makeGo for two38.9%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 6:07SDSU Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call53.6%97% to makeGo for two52.6%−1.045% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartSDSUDrive 1PUNT5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0089% → 89%
Q1 15:00
4TH & 2
OWN 48
0
88.8%
Brandon Heicklen punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Hawa 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 2FG9 plays · 80 yds · 4:1712% → 14%
Q1 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+5
88.2%
URSUA, John rush for no gain to the UH15 (BALDWIN,Parker), PENALTY SDSU offside 5 yards to the UH20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:55
1ST & 5
OWN 20
+4
88.2%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Marcus Armstrong-Brown for 4 yds to the Hawa 24Similar
Q1 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+49
88.2%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Jason-Matthew Sharsh for 49 yds to the SDSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:55
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+14
88.0%
Cole McDonald pass complete to John Ursua for 14 yds to the SDSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-7
88.0%
Cole McDonald sacked by Kyahva Tezino for a loss of 7 yards to the SDSt 17Similar
Q1 12:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 17
+12
88.1%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Cameron Hayes for 12 yds to the SDSt 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 3TD2 plays · 76 yds · 0:0087% → 87%
Q1 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+76
87.1%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Fred Trevillion for 76 yds for a TD (John Baron II KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 4PUNT6 plays · 2 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
SDSUDrive 5PUNT5 plays · -7 yds · 0:0087% → 87%
Q1 7:27
3RD & 9
OWN 36
-10
86.9%
CHAPMAN,C. rush for 10 yards to the SDSU46 (BETHLEY, Khoury), PENALTY SDSU holding 10 yards to the SDSU26, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:27
4TH & 17
OWN 28
+3
86.7%
Brandon Heicklen punt for 50 yds , Justice Augafa returns for 3 yds to the Hawa 5 Justice Augafa fumbled, forced by Trenton Thompson, recovered by SDSt Dwayne Johnson Jr. , return for 15 yds to the Hawa 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 6TD1 play · 5 yds · 0:0088% → 88%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 7TD14 plays · 75 yds · 5:2812% → 17%
Q1 5:20
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+11
87.6%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Cedric Byrd for 11 yds to the Hawa 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+8
87.5%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Marcus Armstrong-Brown for 8 yds to the Hawa 48Similar
Q1 5:20
3RD & 2
OWN 48
+25
87.4%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Cedric Byrd for 25 yds to the SDSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:20
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+10
87.0%
Cole McDonald pass complete to JoJo Ward for 10 yds to the SDSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:20
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+3
87.0%
Cole McDonald pass complete to JoJo Ward for 3 yds to the SDSt 14Similar
Q1 5:20
2ND & 7
OPP 14
+5
87.0%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Marcus Armstrong-Brown for 5 yds to the SDSt 9Similar
Q1 5:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
87.0%
Cole McDonald pass incomplete to JoJo Ward, broken up by Luq BarcooSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
+8
86.9%
MCDONALD, Cole pass incomplete to URSUA, John, PENALTY SDSU pass interference 8 yards to the SDSU2, 1ST DOWN UH, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
83.5%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Elijah Dale for 2 yds for a TD (Ryan Meskell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 8DOWNS13 plays · 65 yds · 0:0085% → 85%
Q2 14:46
2ND & 3
OWN 37
+10
85.2%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Kahale Warring for 10 yds to the SDSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 9TD7 plays · 95 yds · 3:2517% → 26%
Q2 8:36
2ND & 9
OWN 6
+37
82.9%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Cedric Byrd for 37 yds to the Hawa 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:36
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
81.5%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Miles Reed for 2 yds to the Hawa 45Similar
Q2 8:36
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+47
81.4%
Cole McDonald pass complete to JoJo Ward for 47 yds to the SDSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+6
80.5%
Cole McDonald pass complete to John Ursua for 6 yds to the SDSt 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 10PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0076% → 76%
HAWDrive 11TD6 plays · 79 yds · 1:5226% → 39%
Q2 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+21
73.9%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Marcus Armstrong-Brown for 21 yds to the Hawa 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+44
72.5%
Cole McDonald pass complete to JoJo Ward for 44 yds to the SDSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:19
3RD & 9
OPP 13
+13
61.4%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Cedric Byrd for 13 yds for a TD (Ryan Meskell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 12PUNT8 plays · 16 yds · 0:2662% → 60%
HAWDrive 13END OF HALF5 plays · 20 yds · 0:1639% → 39%
HAWDrive 14PUNT6 plays · -3 yds · 0:0040% → 38%
Q3 14:53
2ND & 10
OWN 22
-10
60.5%
MCDONALD, Cole pass complete to URSUA, John for 4 yards to the UH26 (CASSIDY,Troy), PENALTY UH holding 10 yards to the UH12, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 20
OWN 12
0
60.7%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Fred Holly III for no gain to the Hawa 12Similar
Q3 14:53
3RD & 20
OWN 12
+7
61.5%
Cole McDonald pass complete to John Ursua for 7 yds to the Hawa 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 15FG7 plays · 23 yds · 2:3658% → 59%
Q3 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+11
57.9%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Kahale Warring for 11 yds to the Hawa 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:05
2ND & 8
OPP 44
+10
59.2%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Tim Wilson Jr. for 10 yds to the Hawa 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:05
3RD & 10
OPP 34
0
58.4%
Christian Chapman pass incomplete to Fred Trevillion, broken up by Rojesterman Farris IISimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 16PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0043% → 41%
Q3 10:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
57.2%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Marcus Armstrong-Brown for 5 yds to the Hawa 30Similar
Q3 10:29
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
56.3%
Cole McDonald pass incomplete to JoJo Ward, broken up by Tariq ThompsonSimilar
Q3 10:29
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
57.1%
Cole McDonald pass incomplete to John Ursua, broken up by Parker BaldwinSimilar
Q3 10:29
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
59.1%
Ben Scruton punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Garrett Binkley at the SDSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 17PUNT8 plays · 23 yds · 0:0059% → 58%
Q3 9:38
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+10
60.8%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Parker Houston for 10 yds to the Hawa 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:38
1ST & 15
OPP 49
+7
60.0%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Parker Houston for 7 yds to the Hawa 42Similar
Q3 9:38
4TH & 8
OPP 42
0
58.0%
Brandon Heicklen punt for 33 yds, fair catch by JoJo Ward at the Hawa 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 18FUMBLE8 plays · 76 yds · 0:0048% → 53%
SDSUDrive 19PUNT9 plays · 16 yds · 3:3149% → 40%
Q3 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+12
50.3%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Fred Trevillion for 12 yds to the SDSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:31
3RD & 10
OWN 42
-10
50.0%
CHAPMAN,C. rush for 5 yards to the SDSU47 (PAVIHI, Penei), PENALTY SDSU holding 10 yards to the SDSU32, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 20
OWN 32
-1
40.8%
Christian Chapman sacked by Kaimana Padello and Zeno Choi for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 31Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 21
OWN 31
+58
39.9%
Brandon Heicklen punt for 48 yds, fair catch by JoJo Ward at the SANDIEGOST 21 HAWAII Penalty, Offensive holding (10 Yards) to the Hawa 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 20PUNT7 plays · 19 yds · 0:0063% → 60%
Q4 14:13
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+13
37.4%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Cedric Byrd for 13 yds to the Hawa 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:13
2ND & 7
OWN 27
+7
36.3%
Cole McDonald pass complete to John Ursua for 7 yds to the Hawa 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:13
2ND & 7
OWN 37
-7
35.2%
Cole McDonald sacked by Kyahva Tezino for a loss of 7 yards to the Hawa 30Similar
Q4 14:13
4TH & 14
OWN 30
+4
40.0%
Stan Gaudion punt for 42 yds , Garrett Binkley returns for 4 yds to the SDSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 21TD11 plays · 68 yds · 4:5538% → 63%
Q4 11:02
2ND & 1
OPP 25
0
45.1%
Ryan Agnew pass incomplete to Kahale Warring, broken up by Kalen HicksSimilar
Q4 11:02
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+8
45.1%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Kahale Warring for 8 yds to the Hawa 14Similar
Q4 6:07
4TH & 1
OPP 13
+13
63.4%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Isaac Lessard for 13 yds for a TD HAWAII Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined (John Baron II KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 22PUNT9 plays · 31 yds · 1:5746% → 50%
SDSUDrive 23MISSED FG15 plays · 65 yds · 3:5359% → 67%
HAWDrive 24TD8 plays · 25 yds · 0:0060% → 80%
OT 0:00
3RD & 11
OPP 26
+15
43.7%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Marcus Armstrong-Brown for 15 yds to the SDSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
40.5%
Cole McDonald pass incomplete to Marcus Armstrong-Brown, broken up by Darren HallSimilar
OT 0:00
3RD & 4
OPP 5
-5
43.0%
MCDONALD, Cole pass complete to WARD, JoJo for 5 yards to the SDSU0, clock 15:00, PENALTY UH ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the SDSU10, NO PLAY.Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 9
OPP 10
+10
19.7%
Cole McDonald pass complete to JoJo Ward for 10 yds for a TD (Ryan Meskell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 25TD1 play · 25 yds · 0:0041% → 41%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
41.2%
Juwan Washington run for 25 yds for a TD Timeout HAWAII, clock 00:00 (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-41.2
TD · Q4 6:07
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Isaac Lessard for 13 yds for a TD HAWAII Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined (John Baron II KICK)
+33.9
TD · OT 0:00
Cole McDonald pass complete to JoJo Ward for 10 yds for a TD (Ryan Meskell KICK)
-23.2