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NAVY

Navy 41 at Hawai'i 59

HAW
2018 · Week 1 · Sep 1, 2018 · Aloha Stadium
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Win probability · HAW
modelHAW aheadNAVY aheadconfidence bandkey playHAW scoreNAVY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of GameTD+1.8HAW 99.4%Cole McDonald pass complete to JohnUrsua for 9 yds for a TD, (RyanMeskell KICK)AWAY 35 - HOME 59 · Q4 4:45
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 4:45 · Cole McDonald pass complete to John Ursua for 9 yds for a TD, (Ryan Meskell KICK)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+34.0+17.00−17.0−34.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 142Pregame prior−3.1Home team on offense+33.1Score differential+23.1Garbage-time factor+14.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+5.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+6.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 13:18: Cole McDonald pass complete to JoJo Ward for 34 yds for a TD, (Ryan Meskell KICK) — HAW win probability +14.1 pts (now 51%) (top driver: HAW has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 4:17: Cole McDonald pass complete to John Ursua for 50 yds for a TD, (Ryan Meskell KICK) — HAW win probability +18.2 pts (now 87%) (top driver: HAW has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 4:02: Malcolm Perry run for 75 yds for a TD, (Bennett Moehring KICK) — NAVY win probability +15.9 pts (now 30%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 14:07: Cole McDonald pass complete to Cedric Byrd for 31 yds for a TD, (Ryan Meskell KICK) — HAW win probability +14.5 pts (now 94%) (top driver: HAW has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 12:06: Malcolm Perry pass complete to Tre Walker for 19 yds for a TD, (Bennett Moehring KICK) — NAVY win probability +14.3 pts (now 24%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
HAW made the numbers' call on 4 of 5NAVY made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 10:58HAW 4th & 2 at NAVY 12, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 22.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    22.3%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    22.2%−0.1
    86% to make
    Punt
    21.8%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:12NAVY 4th & 3 at NAVY 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.3%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.3%
    average punt
  3. Q2 15:00NAVY 4th & 2 at NAVY 45, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 62.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    62.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    61.9%−0.8
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:18HAW 4th & 4 at NAVY 34, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 42.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    42.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    41.1%−1.1
    47% to make
    Punt
    40.3%−2.0
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:08NAVY 4th & 5 at NAVY 30, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.8%−0.3
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.1%
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:17HAW 4th & 1 at midfield, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 73.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    74.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    70.8%−3.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:00HAW 4th & 4 at NAVY 4, up 21
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.7 ptsKicked a field goal · 82.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    81.3%−1.7
    93% to make
    Punt
    70.1%−12.8
    average punt
  8. Q3 15:00NAVY 4th & 5 at HAW 32, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 20.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.3%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    19.7%−0.7
    51% to make
    Punt
    18.9%−1.5
    average punt
  9. Q3 6:28HAW 4th & 7 at HAW 31, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.7%−2.2
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.9%
    average punt
  10. Q3 4:59NAVY 4th & 21 at NAVY 36, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.3%−5.1
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.4%
    average punt
  11. Q4 11:04NAVY 4th & 12 at NAVY 23, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.4%−1.7
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.1%
    average punt
  12. Q4 4:05NAVY 4th & 10 at HAW 33, down 24
    Close callWent for it · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.8%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    0.8%
    49% to make
    Punt
    0.8%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
HAW made the numbers' call on 6 of 7NAVY made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 9:12HAW Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    24.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    24.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:13HAW Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 13:18HAW Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 6:52NAVY Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 4:17HAW Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 4:02NAVY Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    25.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    25.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 8:08NAVY Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    16.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    16.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 6:35NAVY Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 14:07HAW Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 12:06NAVY Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    17.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    17.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 11:05HAW Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.2%−0.5
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 4:45HAW Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.3%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.4%
    45% to convert
  13. Q4 2:46NAVY Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    2.0%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    1.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
HAWDrive 1TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 5:4816% → 21%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
16.2%
Cole McDonald pass complete to John Ursua for 16 yds to the Hawa 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
16.2%
Cole McDonald pass complete to John Ursua for no gain to the Hawa 41Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+24
16.2%
Cole McDonald pass complete to JoJo Ward for 24 yds to the Navy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
16.2%
Fred Holly III run for no gain to the Navy 35Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+6
16.2%
Fred Holly III run for 6 yds to the Navy 29Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 29
+9
16.2%
Cole McDonald pass complete to John Ursua for 9 yds to the Navy 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
16.2%
Fred Holly III run for no gain to the Navy 20Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 20
0
16.2%
Cole McDonald pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:58
3RD & 10
OPP 20
+8
18.5%
Cole McDonald run for 8 yds to the Navy 12Similar
Q1 10:58
4TH & 2
OPP 12
+3
18.4%
Fred Holly III run for 3 yds to the Navy 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
18.6%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Cedric Byrd for 2 yds to the Navy 7Similar
Q1 9:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
21.2%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Cedric Byrd for 7 yds for a TD, (Ryan Meskell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0080% → 79%
Q1 9:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
20.5%
Anthony Gargiulo run for 4 yds to the Navy 29Similar
Q1 9:12
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-4
20.4%
Tre Walker run for a loss of 4 yards to the Navy 25Similar
Q1 9:12
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+7
20.6%
Anthony Gargiulo run for 7 yds to the Navy 32Similar
Q1 9:12
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
20.6%
Owen White punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Cedric Byrd at the Hawa 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 3TD
10 plays · 71 yds · 4:0022% → 32%
Q1 7:13
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
22.4%
Fred Holly III run for 3 yds to the Hawa 32Similar
Q1 7:13
2ND & 7
OWN 32
+8
22.4%
Cole McDonald pass complete to JoJo Ward for 8 yds to the Hawa 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:13
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
22.7%
Cole McDonald pass incomplete to John UrsuaSimilar
Q1 7:13
2ND & 10
OWN 40
-1
22.5%
Cole McDonald sacked by Evan Fochtman for a loss of 1 yard to the Hawa 39Similar
Q1 7:13
3RD & 11
OWN 39
+16
22.3%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Cedric Byrd for 16 yds to the Navy 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:13
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
22.9%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Cedric Byrd for 2 yds to the Navy 43Similar
Q1 7:13
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+14
22.8%
Cole McDonald pass complete to John Ursua for 14 yds to the Navy 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:13
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
23.0%
Cole McDonald pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:13
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+28
22.9%
Fred Holly III run for 28 yds to the Navy 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
31.8%
Fred Holly III run for 1 yd for a TD, (Ryan Meskell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 4DOWNS
8 plays · 15 yds · 3:1370% → 66%
Q1 3:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
30.1%
Malcolm Perry run for 3 yds to the Navy 28Similar
Q1 3:13
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+6
30.1%
Anthony Gargiulo run for 6 yds to the Navy 34Similar
Q1 3:13
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
29.9%
Anthony Gargiulo run for 3 yds to the Navy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:13
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
30.0%
Nelson Smith run for 4 yds to the Navy 41Similar
Q1 3:13
2ND & 6
OWN 41
0
29.7%
Malcolm Perry run for no gain to the Navy 41Similar
Q1 3:13
3RD & 6
OWN 41
+4
29.9%
Malcolm Perry run for 4 yds to the Navy 45Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 2
OWN 45
-5
34.1%
Malcolm Perry run for a loss of 5 yards to the Navy 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 5TD
4 plays · 40 yds · 1:3737% → 51%
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
37.0%
Cole McDonald pass incomplete to John UrsuaSimilar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+2
37.0%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Cedric Byrd for 2 yds to the Navy 38Similar
Q2 14:55
3RD & 8
OPP 38
+4
36.6%
Cole McDonald run for 4 yds to the Navy 34Similar
Q2 13:18
4TH & 4
OPP 34
+34
50.7%
Cole McDonald pass complete to JoJo Ward for 34 yds for a TD, (Ryan Meskell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 6PUNT TD
5 plays · 5 yds · 2:1051% → 29%
Q2 13:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
48.9%
Anthony Gargiulo run for 1 yd to the Navy 26Similar
Q2 13:18
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+3
49.1%
Malcolm Perry run for 3 yds to the Navy 29Similar
Q2 13:18
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+1
49.0%
Tre Walker run for 1 yd to the Navy 30Similar
Q2 11:08
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+19
71.0%
TEAM punt blocked by Jeffery Keene blocked by Jeffery Keene Maxwell Hendrie return for 19 yds for a TD, (Ryan Meskell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 7TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 4:1629% → 40%
Q2 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+40
71.3%
Nelson Smith run for 40 yds to the Hawa 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:08
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
69.0%
Nelson Smith run for 1 yd to the Hawa 34Similar
Q2 11:08
2ND & 9
OPP 34
+15
69.1%
Nelson Smith run for 15 yds to the Hawa 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:08
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
68.5%
Malcolm Perry run for 4 yds to the Hawa 15Similar
Q2 11:08
2ND & 6
OPP 15
0
67.7%
Malcolm Perry run for no gain to the Hawa 15Similar
Q2 11:08
3RD & 6
OPP 15
+7
68.6%
Nelson Smith run for 7 yds to the Hawa 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+5
69.3%
Malcolm Perry run for 5 yds to the Hawa 3Similar
Q2 6:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
59.9%
Zach Abey run for 3 yds for a TD, (Bennett Moehring KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 8TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:3568% → 87%
Q2 6:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
68.3%
Cole McDonald pass complete to JoJo Ward for 9 yds to the Hawa 34Similar
Q2 6:52
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+7
68.6%
Fred Holly III run for 7 yds to the Hawa 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:52
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
69.0%
Cole McDonald pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:52
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+7
68.8%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Cedric Byrd for 7 yds to the Hawa 48Similar
Q2 6:52
3RD & 3
OWN 48
+2
68.5%
Fred Holly III run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 4:17
4TH & 1
50
+50
86.6%
Cole McDonald pass complete to John Ursua for 50 yds for a TD, (Ryan Meskell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 9TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:0030% → 30%
Q2 4:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
70.5%
Malcolm Perry run for 75 yds for a TD, (Bennett Moehring KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 10FG
15 plays · 71 yds · 4:0275% → 80%
Q2 4:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
74.8%
Fred Holly III run for 9 yds to the Hawa 34Similar
Q2 4:02
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+6
75.1%
Cole McDonald run for 6 yds to the Hawa 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:02
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
75.5%
Cole McDonald pass incomplete to John UrsuaSimilar
Q2 4:02
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+2
75.4%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Fred Holly III for 2 yds to the Hawa 42Similar
Q2 4:02
3RD & 8
OWN 42
+38
75.0%
Cole McDonald pass complete to John Ursua for 38 yds to the Navy 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:02
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+2
76.0%
Fred Holly III run for 2 yds to the Navy 18Similar
Q2 4:02
2ND & 8
OPP 18
+4
76.0%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Cedric Byrd for 4 yds to the Navy 14Similar
Q2 4:02
3RD & 4
OPP 14
+5
75.7%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Cedric Byrd for 5 yds to the Navy 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
83.0%
Cole McDonald pass incomplete to JoJo WardSimilar
Q2 0:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
83.0%
Cole McDonald pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:19
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
82.1%
Fred Holly III run for 5 yds to the Navy 4Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+23
80.3%
Ryan Meskell 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 11TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 6:5222% → 27%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
77.8%
Anthony Gargiulo run for 4 yds to the Navy 29Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+18
77.0%
Malcolm Perry run for 18 yds to the Navy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
76.9%
Anthony Gargiulo run for 4 yds to the Hawa 49Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+2
76.3%
Nelson Smith run for 2 yds to the Hawa 47Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 47
+10
76.5%
Malcolm Perry run for 10 yds to the Hawa 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+4
76.3%
Nelson Smith run for 4 yds to the Hawa 33Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 33
+1
74.6%
Nelson Smith run for 1 yd to the Hawa 32Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 32
0
75.8%
Malcolm Perry run for no gain to the Hawa 32Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 5
OPP 32
+19
76.7%
Mike Martin run for 19 yds to the Hawa 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+9
74.8%
Nelson Smith run for 9 yds to the Hawa 4Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 4
+3
74.8%
Nelson Smith run for 3 yds to the Hawa 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
73.1%
Zach Abey run for 1 yd for a TD, (Bennett Moehring KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 12FUMBLE
3 plays · -13 yds · 0:0082% → 82%
Q3 8:02
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+8
81.6%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Jason-Matthew Sharsh for 8 yds to the Hawa 30Similar
Q3 8:02
2ND & 2
OWN 30
-21
82.1%
Cole McDonald sacked by Nizaire Cromartie for a loss of 21 yards to the Hawa 9 Cole McDonald fumbled, recovered by Navy Josh Webb , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 13TD
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:5824% → 37%
Q3 7:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
75.6%
Anthony Gargiulo run for 2 yds to the Hawa 7Similar
Q3 6:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
77.6%
Malcolm Perry pass incomplete to Keoni-Kordell MakekauSimilar
Q3 6:35
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
63.5%
Zach Abey run for 7 yds for a TD, (Bennett Moehring KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0068% → 66%
Q3 6:28
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
68.0%
Fred Holly III run for 3 yds to the Hawa 31Similar
Q3 6:28
2ND & 7
OWN 31
0
67.9%
Cole McDonald pass incomplete to Jason-Matthew SharshSimilar
Q3 6:28
3RD & 7
OWN 31
0
66.9%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Tristin Kamaka for no gain to the Hawa 31Similar
Q3 6:28
4TH & 7
OWN 31
+8
65.8%
Stan Gaudion punt for 43 yds , Jacob Springer returns for 8 yds to the Navy 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 0:0031% → 28%
Q3 4:59
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+8
69.1%
Malcolm Perry run for 8 yds to the Navy 42Similar
Q3 4:59
2ND & 2
OWN 42
+5
67.6%
Anthony Gargiulo run for 5 yds to the Navy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:59
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-7
67.4%
Malcolm Perry sacked by Manly Williams for a loss of 7 yards to the Navy 40Similar
Q3 4:59
2ND & 17
OWN 40
+4
69.7%
Anthony Gargiulo run for 4 yds to the Navy 44Similar
Q3 4:59
3RD & 13
OWN 44
-8
70.1%
Malcolm Perry sacked by Zeno Choi and Penei Pavihi for a loss of 8 yards to the Navy 36Similar
Q3 4:59
4TH & 21
OWN 36
0
71.6%
Owen White punt for 35 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 16TD
7 plays · 71 yds · 2:1176% → 94%
Q3 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
75.9%
Cole McDonald pass incomplete to Cedric ByrdSimilar
Q3 1:18
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+16
75.4%
Cole McDonald pass complete to John Ursua for 16 yds to the Hawa 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+11
77.3%
Cole McDonald pass complete to John Ursua for 11 yds to the Navy 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:18
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
77.3%
Fred Holly III run for 5 yds to the Navy 39Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 39
0
80.2%
Cole McDonald pass incomplete to Cedric Byrd, broken up by Sean WilliamsSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 39
+8
79.1%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Cedric Byrd for 8 yds to the Navy 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:07
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+31
93.5%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Cedric Byrd for 31 yds for a TD, (Ryan Meskell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 17TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:019% → 24%
Q4 14:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+21
91.4%
Keoni-Kordell Makekau run for 21 yds to the Navy 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:07
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+23
90.9%
Tazh Maloy run for 23 yds to the Hawa 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:07
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
89.8%
Malcolm Perry pass incomplete to Tazh MaloySimilar
Q4 14:07
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+8
90.0%
CJ Williams run for 8 yds to the Hawa 23Similar
Q4 14:07
3RD & 2
OPP 23
+4
90.3%
Zach Abey run for 4 yds to the Hawa 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:06
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
76.1%
Malcolm Perry pass complete to Tre Walker for 19 yds for a TD, (Bennett Moehring KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 18TD
3 plays · 78 yds · 0:5482% → 95%
Q4 11:59
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
82.0%
Miles Reed run for 3 yds to the Hawa 25Similar
Q4 11:05
2ND & 7
OWN 25
+75
94.7%
Cole McDonald pass complete to JoJo Ward for 75 yds for a TD, (Ryan Meskell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q4 11:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
93.8%
Zach Abey pass incomplete to Malcolm PerrySimilar
Q4 11:04
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-7
93.8%
Malcolm Perry sacked by Manly Williams for a loss of 7 yards to the Navy 18Similar
Q4 11:04
3RD & 17
OWN 18
+5
94.0%
Malcolm Perry run for 5 yds to the Navy 23Similar
Q4 11:04
4TH & 12
OWN 23
+3
94.1%
Owen White punt for 40 yds , Cedric Byrd returns for 3 yds to the Hawa 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 20TD
10 plays · 60 yds · 4:2696% → 99%
Q4 9:11
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
95.7%
Fred Holly III run for 5 yds to the Hawa 45Similar
Q4 9:11
2ND & 5
OWN 45
0
95.7%
Fred Holly III run for no gain to the Hawa 45Similar
Q4 9:11
3RD & 5
OWN 45
+6
95.7%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Cedric Byrd for 6 yds to the Navy 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:11
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+18
95.8%
Fred Holly III run for 3 yds to the Navy 46 for a 1ST down NAVY Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Taylor Heflin) to the Navy 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:11
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+11
95.9%
Cole McDonald pass complete to JoJo Ward for 11 yds to the Navy 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:11
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+17
95.9%
Miles Reed run for 14 yds to the Navy 6 for a 1ST down NAVY Penalty, personal foul (Cameron Kinley) to the Navy 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-10
95.9%
Cole McDonald sacked by Taylor Heflin for a loss of 10 yards to the Navy 13Similar
Q4 5:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 13
+4
97.7%
Cole McDonald pass complete to John Ursua for 4 yds to the Navy 9Similar
Q4 4:45
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
99.4%
Cole McDonald pass complete to John Ursua for 9 yds for a TD, (Ryan Meskell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 21TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 1:591% → 1%
Q4 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
99.4%
Garret Lewis pass complete to Taylor Jackson for 12 yds to the Navy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+13
99.4%
Garret Lewis pass complete to Taylor Jackson for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:45
1ST & 10
50
+17
99.4%
Garret Lewis pass complete to CJ Williams for 17 yds to the Hawa 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:05
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
99.3%
Garret Lewis pass incomplete to Ryan MitchellSimilar
Q4 4:05
2ND & 10
OPP 33
0
99.3%
Garret Lewis pass incomplete to Myles FellsSimilar
Q4 4:05
3RD & 10
OPP 33
0
99.4%
Garret Lewis pass incomplete to Mychal CooperSimilar
Q4 4:05
4TH & 10
OPP 33
+13
99.4%
Garret Lewis pass complete to Taylor Jackson for 13 yds to the Hawa 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:05
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
99.3%
Garret Lewis pass incomplete to Taylor JacksonSimilar
Q4 4:05
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+11
99.3%
Garret Lewis pass complete to CJ Williams for 11 yds to the Hawa 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+7
99.3%
Garret Lewis run for 7 yds to the Hawa 2Similar
Q4 2:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
98.7%
Zach Abey run for 2 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 22END OF GAME
6 plays · 9 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+8
99.6%
Kolney Cassel pass complete to Eric Rooks for 8 yds to the Navy 44Similar
Q4 2:45
2ND & 2
OPP 44
+5
99.6%
Miles Reed run for 5 yds to the Navy 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:45
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-2
99.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Navy 41Similar
Q4 2:45
2ND & 12
OPP 41
-2
99.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Navy 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 4:17
Cole McDonald pass complete to John Ursua for 50 yds for a TD, (Ryan Meskell KICK)
+18.2
TD · Q2 4:02
Malcolm Perry run for 75 yds for a TD, (Bennett Moehring KICK)
-15.9
TD · Q4 14:07
Cole McDonald pass complete to Cedric Byrd for 31 yds for a TD, (Ryan Meskell KICK)
+14.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com