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HAW

Hawai'i 21 at Army 28

ARMY
2018 · Week 3 · Sep 15, 2018 · Michie Stadium
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Win probability · ARMY
modelARMY aheadHAW aheadconfidence bandkey playARMY scoreHAW score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 2:17 · Stan Gaudion punt for 40 yds, downed at the Army 27
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialBlowout margin
+26.5+13.30−13.3−26.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 113Pregame prior+5.5Home team on offense+7.8Garbage-time factor−0.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.9Score differential+2.0Blowout margin+1.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:05: John Ursua run for 1 yd for a TD (Ryan Meskell KICK) — HAW win probability +9.6 pts (now 41%) (top driver: HAW has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 3:46: Connor Slomka run for 48 yds for a TD (Landon Salyers KICK) — ARMY win probability +7.7 pts (now 75%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 9:01: Darnell Woolfolk run for 3 yds for a TD (Landon Salyers KICK) — ARMY win probability +9.9 pts (now 96%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 8:42: Cole McDonald pass complete to John Ursua for 80 yds for a TD (Ryan Meskell KICK) — HAW win probability +14.0 pts (now 19%) (top driver: HAW has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 0:54: TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Army 9 — ARMY win probability +6.2 pts (now 96%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARMY made the numbers' call on 8 of 9HAW made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 13:08ARMY 4th & 9 at ARMY 26, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.2%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:29HAW 4th & 5 at ARMY 29, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 33.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    33.6%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    33.6%−<0.1
    58% to make
    Punt
    33.0%−0.5
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:17HAW 4th & 13 at HAW 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.3%−0.6
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.9%
    average punt
  4. Q2 2:48HAW 4th & 16 at HAW 16, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.8%−2.6
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.4%
    average punt
  5. Q2 0:07ARMY 4th & 5 at HAW 10, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 74.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.2%−1.3
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    74.5%
    88% to make
    Punt
    70.5%−3.9
    average punt
  6. Q3 14:54ARMY 4th & 1 at HAW 34, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 75.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    75.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    72.2%−2.8
    47% to make
    Punt
    71.6%−3.3
    average punt
  7. Q3 10:12ARMY 4th & 19 at HAW 36, up 7
    Close callPunted · 74.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.9%−1.7
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    74.6%
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    74.2%−0.4
    average punt
  8. Q3 8:13HAW 4th & 2 at HAW 21, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.9%−0.1
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.1%
    average punt
  9. Q3 6:37ARMY 4th & 4 at HAW 33, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 79.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    79.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    78.1%−1.1
    49% to make
    Punt
    77.0%−2.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:37ARMY 4th & 14 at HAW 43, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.1%−1.4
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    77.4%−1.0
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    78.4%
    average punt
  11. Q3 2:17HAW 4th & 22 at HAW 33, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.6%−5.1
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.7%
    average punt
  12. Q4 15:00ARMY 4th & 1 at ARMY 49, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 84.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    84.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    81.6%−3.0
    average punt
  13. Q4 15:00ARMY 4th & 1 at HAW 15, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 84.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    84.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    81.5%−2.7
    83% to make
    Punt
    72.9%−11.2
    average punt
  14. Q4 3:06ARMY 4th & 1 at HAW 28, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 93.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    93.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    91.7%−1.6
    60% to make
    Punt
    88.3%−4.9
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:00HAW 4th & 8 at ARMY 11, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.2%
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    7.5%−1.7
    87% to make
    Punt
    4.2%−5.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARMY made the numbers' call on 3 of 4HAW made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 13:08HAW Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:17ARMY Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 12:47ARMY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 7:05HAW Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 3:46ARMY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 9:01ARMY Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.3%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.6%
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 8:42HAW Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    13.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    13.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
HAWDrive 1TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:5231% → 32%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
69.1%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Cedric Byrd for 12 yds to the Hawa 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
69.1%
Cole McDonald pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+50
69.1%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Cedric Byrd for 50 yds to the Army 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+1
69.1%
Fred Holly III run for 1 yd to the Army 12Similar
Q1 13:08
2ND & 9
OPP 12
+12
68.1%
Cole McDonald pass complete to John Ursua for 12 yds for a TD (Ryan Meskell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0068% → 68%
Q1 13:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
68.3%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 2 yds to the Army 27Similar
Q1 13:08
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-1
68.3%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the Army 26Similar
Q1 13:08
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
68.3%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:08
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
68.2%
Nick Schrage punt for 62 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Hawa 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 3DOWNS
7 plays · 54 yds · 0:0033% → 33%
Q1 11:29
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+35
67.5%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Devan Stubblefield for 35 yds to the Hawa 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:29
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
67.2%
Cole McDonald pass complete to John Ursua for 4 yds to the Army 49Similar
Q1 11:29
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+15
67.2%
MCDONALD, Cole pass incomplete to STUBBLEFIELD, D, PENALTY ARMY roughing passer (Nachtigal, J.) 15 yards to the ARMY34, 1ST DOWN UH, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:29
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+5
67.1%
Dayton Furuta run for 5 yds to the Army 29Similar
Q1 11:29
2ND & 5
OPP 29
0
67.1%
Cole McDonald pass incomplete to Marcus Armstrong-BrownSimilar
Q1 11:29
3RD & 5
OPP 29
0
67.2%
Cole McDonald pass incomplete to Cedric ByrdSimilar
Q1 11:29
4TH & 5
OPP 29
-5
67.4%
Cole McDonald sacked by Kenneth Brinson for a loss of 5 yards to the Army 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 4TD
6 plays · 66 yds · 2:4266% → 69%
Q1 8:59
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
66.2%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 3 yds to the Army 37Similar
Q1 8:59
2ND & 7
OWN 37
-1
66.4%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the Army 36Similar
Q1 7:35
3RD & 8
OWN 36
+63
65.1%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. pass complete to Calen Holt for 63 yds to the Hawa 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
66.3%
Connor Slomka run for no gain to the Hawa 1Similar
Q1 6:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
68.7%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD (Landon Salyers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:0033% → 32%
Q1 6:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
67.5%
Cole McDonald pass incomplete to Devan StubblefieldSimilar
Q1 6:17
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
67.6%
Cole McDonald pass incomplete to Devan StubblefieldSimilar
Q1 6:17
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-3
67.8%
Cole McDonald sacked by Kenneth Brinson for a loss of 3 yards to the Hawa 22Similar
Q1 6:17
4TH & 13
OWN 22
0
68.1%
Stan Gaudion punt for 42 yds, downed at the Army 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 6TD
14 plays · 64 yds · 7:2868% → 73%
Q1 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
67.7%
Andy Davidson run for 3 yds to the Army 39Similar
Q1 5:15
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+4
68.1%
Calen Holt run for 4 yds to the Army 43Similar
Q1 5:15
3RD & 3
OWN 43
+3
68.0%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 3 yds to the Army 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
68.3%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for no gain to the Army 46Similar
Q1 5:15
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+1
68.0%
Calen Holt run for 1 yd to the Army 47Similar
Q1 5:15
3RD & 9
OWN 47
+18
67.6%
Fred Cooper run for 18 yds to the Hawa 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
68.7%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 4 yds to the Hawa 31Similar
Q1 5:15
2ND & 6
OPP 31
+2
68.7%
Connor Slomka run for 2 yds to the Hawa 29Similar
Q1 5:15
3RD & 4
OPP 29
+15
68.3%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for 15 yds to the Hawa 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+3
68.6%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 3 yds to the Hawa 11Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 11
+4
68.6%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 4 yds to the Hawa 7Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 7
+6
68.0%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 6 yds to the Hawa 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
68.6%
Darnell Woolfolk run for no gain to the Hawa 1Similar
Q2 12:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
73.1%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD (Landon Salyers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 7TD
11 plays · 65 yds · 5:3229% → 41%
Q2 12:37
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
70.6%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Dayton Furuta for 9 yds to the Hawa 44Similar
Q2 12:37
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+5
69.5%
Cole McDonald run for 5 yds to the Hawa 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:37
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+12
69.6%
Dayton Furuta run for 12 yds to the Army 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:37
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+21
69.5%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Marcus Armstrong-Brown for 21 yds to the Army 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:37
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+5
68.5%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Cedric Byrd for 5 yds to the Army 13Similar
Q2 12:37
2ND & 5
OPP 13
+4
68.5%
Dayton Furuta run for 4 yds to the Army 9Similar
Q2 12:37
3RD & 1
OPP 9
-5
69.3%
HAWAII Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Army 14Similar
Q2 12:37
3RD & 6
OPP 14
+9
69.3%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Marcus Armstrong-Brown for 9 yds to the Army 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
68.5%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Cedric Byrd for 4 yds to the Army 1Similar
Q2 7:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
58.9%
John Ursua run for 1 yd for a TD (Ryan Meskell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 8TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 3:1965% → 75%
Q2 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
65.3%
Calen Holt run for 2 yds to the Army 27Similar
Q2 7:05
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+1
65.3%
Fred Cooper run for 1 yd to the Army 28Similar
Q2 7:05
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+15
64.3%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. pass complete to Christian Hayes for 15 yds to the Army 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
67.1%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 3 yds to the Army 46Similar
Q2 7:05
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+6
67.3%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for 6 yds to the Hawa 48Similar
Q2 3:46
3RD & 1
OPP 48
+48
75.0%
Connor Slomka run for 48 yds for a TD (Landon Salyers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · -6 yds · 0:5427% → 26%
Q2 3:42
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
73.0%
Cole McDonald pass incomplete to John UrsuaSimilar
Q2 3:42
2ND & 10
OWN 22
-9
73.3%
Cole McDonald sacked by James Nachtigal for a loss of 9 yards to the Hawa 13Similar
Q2 3:42
3RD & 19
OWN 13
+3
74.1%
Cole McDonald pass complete to John Ursua for 3 yds to the Hawa 16Similar
Q2 2:48
4TH & 16
OWN 16
0
74.3%
Stan Gaudion punt for 32 yds, downed at the Hawa 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 10MISSED FG
10 plays · 38 yds · 2:2875% → 76%
Q2 2:35
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
75.4%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 4 yds to the Hawa 44Similar
Q2 2:35
2ND & 6
OPP 44
+2
75.4%
Fred Cooper run for 2 yds to the Hawa 42Similar
Q2 2:35
3RD & 4
OPP 42
+12
74.7%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. pass complete to Fred Cooper for 12 yds to the Hawa 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:35
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+15
75.6%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. pass complete to Artice Hobbs IV for 15 yds to the Hawa 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:35
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+3
75.6%
Connor Slomka run for 3 yds to the Hawa 12Similar
Q2 2:35
2ND & 7
OPP 12
+2
75.6%
Connor Slomka run for 2 yds to the Hawa 10Similar
Q2 0:24
3RD & 5
OPP 10
0
76.3%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:07
4TH & 5
OPP 10
+27
75.5%
Landon Salyers 27 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Jahlani TavaiSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 11END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0026% → 26%
Q2 0:07
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-1
74.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Hawa 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 12PUNT
14 plays · 41 yds · 4:4275% → 74%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+1
74.9%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for 1 yd to the Army 24Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 9
OWN 24
+5
74.7%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 5 yds to the Army 29Similar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 4
OWN 29
+28
74.3%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. pass complete to Christian Hayes for 28 yds to the Hawa 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
76.9%
Connor Slomka run for 2 yds to the Hawa 41Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 8
OPP 41
+5
76.8%
Andy Davidson run for 5 yds to the Hawa 36Similar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 3
OPP 36
+2
76.2%
Connor Slomka run for 2 yds to the Hawa 34Similar
Q3 14:54
4TH & 1
OPP 34
+7
75.3%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 7 yds to the Hawa 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:12
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-15
77.9%
Holt, Calen rush for 6 yards to the UH21, out-of-bounds (TAVAI, Jahlani), PENALTY ARMY illegal block (Holland, Bryce) 15 yards to the UH42, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:12
1ST & 25
OPP 42
0
76.7%
Fred Cooper run for no gain to the Hawa 42Similar
Q3 10:12
2ND & 25
OPP 42
+6
76.4%
Fred Cooper run for 6 yds to the Hawa 36Similar
Q3 10:12
3RD & 19
OPP 36
0
75.4%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. pass incomplete to Andy DavidsonSimilar
Q3 10:12
4TH & 19
OPP 36
0
73.7%
Zach Potter punt for 23 yds, downed at the Hawa 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0025% → 24%
Q3 8:13
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
74.6%
Fred Holly III run for no gain to the Hawa 13Similar
Q3 8:13
2ND & 10
OWN 13
0
74.9%
Cole McDonald pass incomplete to John UrsuaSimilar
Q3 8:13
3RD & 10
OWN 13
+8
75.9%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Fred Holly III for 8 yds to the Hawa 21Similar
Q3 8:13
4TH & 2
OWN 21
0
76.2%
Ben Scruton punt for 35 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 14PUNT
8 plays · 13 yds · 0:0080% → 77%
Q3 6:37
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
80.3%
Fred Cooper run for 2 yds to the Army 46Similar
Q3 6:37
2ND & 8
OWN 46
+5
80.2%
Slomka, Connor rush for 2 yards to the ARMY48 (WILLIAMS, Manly;SANITOA, S.), PENALTY UH offside defense (MANUWAI, Makai) 5 yards to the UH49, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:37
2ND & 3
OPP 49
+10
80.7%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for 10 yds to the Hawa 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:37
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
80.9%
Calen Holt run for 3 yds to the Hawa 36Similar
Q3 6:37
2ND & 7
OPP 36
+2
80.8%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 2 yds to the Hawa 34Similar
Q3 6:37
3RD & 5
OPP 34
+1
80.1%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for 1 yd to the Hawa 33Similar
Q3 6:37
4TH & 4
OPP 33
-10
78.8%
Calen Holt run for 5 yds to the Hawa 28 ARMY Penalty, illegal block (-15 Yards) to the Hawa 43Similar
Q3 6:37
4TH & 14
OPP 43
0
77.0%
Zach Potter punt for 28 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 15PUNT
9 plays · 18 yds · 0:0024% → 22%
Q3 2:17
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+20
75.9%
Cole McDonald pass complete to JoJo Ward for 20 yds to the Hawa 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:17
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
74.5%
Cole McDonald pass complete to John Ursua for 9 yds to the Hawa 44Similar
Q3 2:17
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+1
71.7%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Cedric Byrd for 1 yd to the Hawa 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:17
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-10
73.1%
MCDONALD, Cole pass incomplete to BYRD, Cedric, PENALTY UH holding (VANTERPOOL, M.) 10 yards to the UH35, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:17
1ST & 20
OWN 35
+3
75.7%
Cole McDonald run for 3 yds to the Hawa 38Similar
Q3 2:17
2ND & 17
OWN 38
0
75.6%
Cole McDonald pass incomplete to Marcus Armstrong-BrownSimilar
Q3 2:17
3RD & 17
OWN 38
-5
76.2%
HAWAII Penalty, false start (Cedric Byrd) to the Hawa 33Similar
Q3 2:17
3RD & 22
OWN 33
0
77.3%
Cole McDonald pass incomplete to JoJo WardSimilar
Q3 2:17
4TH & 22
OWN 33
0
77.7%
Stan Gaudion punt for 40 yds, downed at the Army 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 16TD
12 plays · 73 yds · 5:5983% → 96%
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+13
83.4%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for 23 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down ARMY Penalty, Offensive holding (Camden Harrison) to the Army 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
85.0%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. pass incomplete to Calen HoltSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+3
84.4%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for 3 yds to the Army 43Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 43
+6
83.7%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for 6 yds to the Army 49Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 49
+1
83.3%
Connor Slomka run for 1 yd to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
50
+26
85.5%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for 26 yds to the Hawa 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+6
85.9%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 6 yds to the Hawa 18Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 18
+2
85.9%
Connor Slomka run for 2 yds to the Hawa 16Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 16
+1
84.9%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for 1 yd to the Hawa 15Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 15
+7
84.0%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for 7 yds to the Hawa 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+5
85.9%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for 5 yds to the Hawa 3Similar
Q4 9:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
95.8%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 3 yds for a TD (Landon Salyers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 17TD
2 plays · 80 yds · 0:0019% → 19%
Q4 8:42
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+80
81.3%
Cole McDonald pass complete to John Ursua for 80 yds for a TD (Ryan Meskell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 18DOWNS
14 plays · 47 yds · 5:3685% → 94%
Q4 8:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
85.2%
Andy Davidson run for 3 yds to the Army 28Similar
Q4 8:42
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+5
85.1%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 5 yds to the Army 33Similar
Q4 8:42
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+4
85.1%
Calen Holt run for 4 yds to the Army 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:42
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
86.3%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 4 yds to the Army 41Similar
Q4 8:42
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+3
87.2%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for 3 yds to the Army 44Similar
Q4 8:42
3RD & 3
OWN 44
-10
86.3%
Calen Holt run for 5 yds to the Army 49 ARMY Penalty, illegal block (Bryce Holland) to the Army 34Similar
Q4 8:42
3RD & 13
OWN 34
+29
84.1%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. pass complete to Glen Coates for 29 yds to the Hawa 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:42
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
87.9%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 2 yds to the Hawa 35Similar
Q4 8:42
2ND & 8
OPP 35
+3
87.9%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for 3 yds to the Hawa 32Similar
Q4 3:12
3RD & 5
OPP 32
+4
94.1%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 4 yds to the Hawa 28Similar
Q4 3:06
4TH & 1
OPP 28
0
94.4%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for no gain to the Hawa 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 19DOWNS
10 plays · 62 yds · 2:0010% → 10%
Q4 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-5
90.4%
HAWAII Penalty, false start (Solo Vaipulu) to the Hawa 22Similar
Q4 3:00
1ST & 15
OWN 22
+15
91.2%
Cole McDonald pass complete to John Ursua for 15 yds to the Hawa 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+28
89.5%
Cole McDonald run for 28 yds to the Army 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+8
85.6%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Cedric Byrd for 8 yds to the Army 27Similar
Q4 3:00
2ND & 2
OPP 27
+14
84.7%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Marcus Armstrong-Brown for 14 yds to the Army 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+2
84.7%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Dayton Furuta for 2 yds to the Army 11Similar
Q4 3:00
2ND & 8
OPP 11
0
84.7%
Cole McDonald pass incomplete to JoJo WardSimilar
Q4 3:00
3RD & 8
OPP 11
0
86.3%
Cole McDonald pass incomplete to John Ursua, broken up by Max ReganSimilar
Q4 1:00
4TH & 8
OPP 11
0
90.1%
Cole McDonald pass incomplete to John Ursua, broken up by Cole ChristiansenSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 20Uncategorized
2 plays · -3 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q4 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 11
-2
96.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Army 9Similar
Q4 0:54
2ND & 12
OWN 9
-1
96.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Army 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 8:42
Cole McDonald pass complete to John Ursua for 80 yds for a TD (Ryan Meskell KICK)
-14
TD · Q4 9:01
Darnell Woolfolk run for 3 yds for a TD (Landon Salyers KICK)
+9.9
TD · Q2 7:05
John Ursua run for 1 yd for a TD (Ryan Meskell KICK)
-9.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com