Try the model
ORST

Oregon State 38 at Hawai'i 30

HAW
2014 · Week 2 · Sep 6, 2014 · Aloha Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · HAW
modelHAW aheadORST aheadconfidence bandkey playHAW scoreORST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:33 · TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Hawa 48
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+45.0+22.50−22.5−45.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 13:30: Terron Ward run for 32 yds for a TD, (Garrett Owens KICK) — ORST win probability +4.5 pts (now 87%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 10:52: Joey Iosefa run for 2 yds for a TD, (Tyler Hadden KICK) — HAW win probability +5.1 pts (now 19%) (top driver: HAW has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 1:31: Terron Ward run for 2 yds for a TD, (Garrett Owens KICK) — ORST win probability +5.0 pts (now 92%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 10:55: Tyler Hadden 33 yd FG GOOD — HAW win probability +5.9 pts (now 12%) (top driver: HAW has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:35: Ikaika Woolsey run for 2 yds for a TD, (Tyler Hadden KICK) — HAW win probability +7.7 pts (now 9%) (top driver: HAW has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
HAW made the numbers' call on 11 of 12ORST made the numbers' call on 4 of 8
  1. Q1 15:00HAW 4th & 1 at ORST 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 24.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    24.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    24.5%−0.2
    42% to make
    Punt
    24.5%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:12HAW 4th & 8 at HAW 27, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.4%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:15HAW 4th & 16 at HAW 32, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.3%−1.2
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.5%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:07ORST 4th & 17 at HAW 42, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.5%−0.6
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    76.8%−0.3
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    77.2%
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:23HAW 4th & 9 at HAW 10, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.5%−0.4
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.9%
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:24HAW 4th & 4 at HAW 33, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.5%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.6%
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:12ORST 4th & 3 at HAW 10, up 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 80.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.1%
    49% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    79.4%−0.7
    88% to make
    Punt
    74.4%−5.7
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:06HAW 4th & 6 at HAW 29, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.1%−0.3
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.3%
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:26HAW 4th & 10 at HAW 17, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.5%−1.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.6%
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:40ORST 4th & 10 at HAW 45, up 24
    Close callPunted · 91.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.7%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    91.7%−<0.1
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    91.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:45HAW 4th & 6 at HAW 42, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.1%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.1%
    average punt
  12. Q3 9:28ORST 4th & 1 at ORST 45, up 31
    Close callPunted · 97.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.4%−0.1
    average punt
  13. Q3 5:22ORST 4th & 2 at ORST 30, up 31
    Close callPunted · 97.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.8%−0.1
    average punt
  14. Q3 2:31HAW 4th & 1 at ORST 11, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    1.1%−0.2
    87% to make
    Punt
    0.6%−0.6
    average punt
  15. Q4 14:55ORST 4th & 10 at ORST 25, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.2%−0.2
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.4%
    average punt
  16. Q4 10:55HAW 4th & 4 at ORST 14, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 5.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.8%−0.2
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    4.9%
    84% to make
    Punt
    -0.6%−5.5
    average punt
  17. Q4 10:55ORST 4th & 6 at ORST 29, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.2%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.5%
    average punt
  18. Q4 9:10HAW 4th & 24 at ORST 34, down 15
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.6 ptsWent for it · 7.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.4%−1.6
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    6.9%
    47% to make
    Punt
    6.0%−0.9
    average punt
  19. Q4 2:47ORST 4th & 13 at ORST 43, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.8%−0.3
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.2%
    average punt
  20. Q4 2:37HAW 4th & 1 at HAW 22, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.9%−0.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
HAW made the numbers' call on 2 of 3ORST made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 10:12ORST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:15ORST Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 13:30ORST Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 10:52HAW Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    21.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    21.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 1:31ORST Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 10:56ORST Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 14:55HAW Touchdown, down 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 1:35HAW Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Numbers favored go for two by 2.3 ptsKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.2%−2.3
    97% to make
    Go for two
    7.5%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
HAWDrive 1FUMBLE
10 plays · 59 yds · 0:0018% → 18%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
18.2%
Joey Iosefa run for 14 yds to the Hawa 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+16
18.2%
Ikaika Woolsey pass complete to Marcus Kemp for 16 yds to the OrgSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
18.2%
Joey Iosefa pass incomplete to Ikaika WoolseySimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+6
18.2%
Joey Iosefa run for 6 yds to the OrgSt 39Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 39
+3
18.2%
Ikaika Woolsey run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 36Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 36
+9
18.2%
Joey Iosefa run for 9 yds to the OrgSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
18.2%
Ikaika Woolsey pass incomplete to Marcus KempSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+11
18.2%
Ikaika Woolsey pass complete to Quinton Pedroza for 11 yds to the OrgSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
18.2%
Joey Iosefa run for no gain to the OrgSt 16 Joey Iosefa fumbled, forced by Jabral Johnson, recovered by OrgSt Siale HautauSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 2TD
6 plays · 84 yds · 2:1781% → 81%
Q1 12:29
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+40
19.5%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Victor Bolden for 40 yds to the Hawa 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:29
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
19.3%
Victor Bolden run for 1 yd to the Hawa 43Similar
Q1 12:29
2ND & 9
OPP 43
+37
19.3%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Connor Hamlett for 37 yds to the Hawa 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
19.3%
Storm Woods run for 2 yds to the Hawa 4Similar
Q1 10:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
19.2%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Richard Mullaney for 4 yds for a TD, (Garrett Owens KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 0:0020% → 19%
Q1 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
19.6%
Ikaika Woolsey pass incomplete to Scott HardingSimilar
Q1 10:12
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
19.5%
Ikaika Woolsey run for 7 yds to the Hawa 32Similar
Q1 10:12
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
19.6%
Ikaika Woolsey pass incomplete to Quinton Pedroza, broken up by Steven NelsonSimilar
Q1 10:12
4TH & 3
OWN 32
-5
19.5%
HAWAII Penalty, illegal shift (-5 Yards) to the Hawa 27Similar
Q1 10:12
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
19.4%
Scott Harding punt for 33 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 4TD
9 plays · 60 yds · 2:5681% → 82%
Q1 9:11
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+35
19.5%
Terron Ward run for 35 yds to the Hawa 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:11
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
19.4%
Victor Bolden run for 5 yds to the Hawa 20Similar
Q1 9:11
2ND & 5
OPP 20
+9
19.4%
HAWAII Penalty, Defensive pass interference (N/A) to the Hawa 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:11
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+5
19.4%
HAWAII Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the Hawa 6Similar
Q1 9:11
1ST & 5
OPP 6
-5
19.4%
OREGON ST Penalty, false start (Josh Mitchell) to the Hawa 11Similar
Q1 9:11
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+2
19.4%
Terron Ward run for 2 yds to the Hawa 9Similar
Q1 9:11
2ND & 8
OPP 9
0
19.4%
Terron Ward run for no gain to the Hawa 9Similar
Q1 9:11
3RD & 8
OPP 9
+4
19.5%
HAWAII Penalty, Defensive pass interference (4 Yards) to the Hawa 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
17.7%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Connor Hamlett for 5 yds for a TD, (Garrett Owens KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 5PUNT
8 plays · 7 yds · 0:0019% → 19%
Q1 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
18.7%
Ikaika Woolsey pass complete to Keelan Ewaliko for 3 yds to the Hawa 28Similar
Q1 6:15
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+6
18.7%
Steven Lakalaka run for 6 yds to the Hawa 34Similar
Q1 6:15
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+4
18.9%
Steven Lakalaka run for 4 yds to the Hawa 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
19.0%
Steven Lakalaka run for 2 yds to the Hawa 40Similar
Q1 6:15
2ND & 8
OWN 40
0
19.0%
Ikaika Woolsey pass incomplete to Keelan EwalikoSimilar
Q1 6:15
3RD & 8
OWN 40
-8
18.8%
Ikaika Woolsey sacked by Obum Gwacham for a loss of 8 yards to the Hawa 32Similar
Q1 6:15
4TH & 16
OWN 32
0
18.5%
Scott Harding punt for 46 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 6PUNT
8 plays · 36 yds · 0:0082% → 82%
Q1 4:07
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+28
18.0%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Storm Woods for 28 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:07
1ST & 10
50
+15
17.7%
HAWAII Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Dee Maggitt) to the Hawa 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:07
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-5
17.6%
OREGON ST Penalty, false start (N/A) to the Hawa 40Similar
Q1 4:07
1ST & 15
OPP 40
0
17.7%
Sean Mannion pass incomplete to Storm WoodsSimilar
Q1 4:07
2ND & 15
OPP 40
0
17.7%
Sean Mannion pass incomplete to Victor Bolden, broken up by Dee MaggittSimilar
Q1 4:07
3RD & 15
OPP 40
+3
17.8%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Storm Woods for 3 yds to the Hawa 37Similar
Q1 4:07
4TH & 12
OPP 37
-5
18.0%
OREGON ST Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Hawa 42Similar
Q1 4:07
4TH & 17
OPP 42
0
18.0%
Keith Kostol punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Scott Harding at the Hawa 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0018% → 18%
Q1 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+2
18.2%
Ikaika Woolsey pass complete to Joey Iosefa for 2 yds to the Hawa 11Similar
Q1 2:23
2ND & 8
OWN 11
-1
18.2%
Joey Iosefa run for a loss of 1 yard to the Hawa 10Similar
Q1 2:23
3RD & 9
OWN 10
0
18.1%
Ikaika Woolsey pass incomplete to Scott HardingSimilar
Q1 2:23
4TH & 9
OWN 10
0
18.1%
Scott Harding punt for 42 yds, downed at the OrgSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 8TD
5 plays · 52 yds · 2:2583% → 87%
Q1 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+9
17.4%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Victor Bolden for 9 yds to the Hawa 43Similar
Q1 0:55
2ND & 1
OPP 43
0
17.3%
Terron Ward run for no gain to the Hawa 43Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 43
+3
17.3%
Terron Ward run for 3 yds to the Hawa 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+8
17.3%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Victor Bolden for 8 yds to the Hawa 32Similar
Q2 13:30
2ND & 2
OPP 32
+32
12.7%
Terron Ward run for 32 yds for a TD, (Garrett Owens KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 9PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q2 13:24
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
13.0%
Ikaika Woolsey pass incomplete to Scott HardingSimilar
Q2 13:24
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+9
12.9%
Ikaika Woolsey pass complete to Scott Harding for 9 yds to the Hawa 25Similar
Q2 13:24
3RD & 1
OWN 25
+2
13.0%
Joey Iosefa run for 2 yds to the Hawa 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:24
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-1
13.1%
Joey Iosefa run for a loss of 1 yard to the Hawa 26Similar
Q2 13:24
2ND & 11
OWN 26
+7
13.0%
Ikaika Woolsey pass complete to Quinton Pedroza for 7 yds to the Hawa 33Similar
Q2 13:24
3RD & 4
OWN 33
0
13.2%
Ikaika Woolsey pass incomplete to Scott HardingSimilar
Q2 13:24
4TH & 4
OWN 33
0
13.0%
Scott Harding punt for 47 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 10INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0087% → 87%
Q2 11:43
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
12.7%
Sean Mannion pass intercepted TJ Taimatuia return for 11 yds to the OrgSt 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 11TD
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:4114% → 19%
Q2 11:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
13.7%
Steven Lakalaka run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 4Similar
Q2 11:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
13.7%
Ikaika Woolsey pass incomplete to Quinton Pedroza, broken up by Steven NelsonSimilar
Q2 11:33
3RD & 0
OPP 4
+2
13.8%
OREGON ST Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Steven Nelson) to the OrgSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
18.9%
Joey Iosefa run for 2 yds for a TD, (Tyler Hadden KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 12FG
14 plays · 65 yds · 4:4083% → 86%
Q2 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
17.0%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Victor Bolden for 7 yds to the OrgSt 32Similar
Q2 10:52
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+6
16.9%
Rahmel Dockery run for 6 yds to the OrgSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
16.6%
Storm Woods run for 6 yds to the OrgSt 44Similar
Q2 10:52
2ND & 4
OWN 44
+7
16.6%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Victor Bolden for 7 yds to the Hawa 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:52
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
16.6%
Sean Mannion pass incomplete to Storm WoodsSimilar
Q2 10:52
2ND & 10
OPP 49
-5
16.6%
OREGON ST Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the OrgSt 46Similar
Q2 10:52
2ND & 15
OWN 46
0
16.8%
Sean Mannion pass incomplete to Richard MullaneySimilar
Q2 10:52
3RD & 15
OWN 46
+22
16.9%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Richard Mullaney for 7 yds to the HAWAII 47 for a 1ST down HAWAII Penalty, roughing passer (Julian Gener) to the Hawa 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:52
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+15
16.5%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Victor Bolden for 15 yds to the Hawa 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:52
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+7
16.5%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Richard Mullaney for 7 yds to the Hawa 10Similar
Q2 10:52
2ND & 3
OPP 10
0
16.5%
Storm Woods run for no gain to the Hawa 10Similar
Q2 10:52
3RD & 3
OPP 10
0
16.7%
Sean Mannion pass incomplete to Connor HamlettSimilar
Q2 6:12
4TH & 3
OPP 10
+27
13.7%
Garrett Owens 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
Q2 6:06
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+15
15.3%
Ikaika Woolsey pass complete to Scott Harding for 15 yds to the Hawa 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
15.4%
Ikaika Woolsey pass incomplete to Marcus KempSimilar
Q2 6:06
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
15.3%
Ikaika Woolsey pass complete to Justin Vele for 4 yds to the Hawa 29Similar
Q2 6:06
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
15.3%
Ikaika Woolsey pass incomplete to Joey Iosefa, broken up by Lavonte BarnettSimilar
Q2 6:06
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
15.2%
Scott Harding punt for 55 yds, downed at the OrgSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 14TD
8 plays · 84 yds · 3:3887% → 92%
Q2 5:09
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+27
13.4%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Caleb Smith for 27 yds to the OrgSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:09
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+10
13.0%
HAWAII Penalty, Defensive holding (Lance Williams) to the Hawa 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:09
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
12.8%
Rahmel Dockery run for 4 yds to the Hawa 43Similar
Q2 5:09
2ND & 6
OPP 43
+11
12.8%
Terron Ward run for 11 yds to the Hawa 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:09
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+20
12.6%
Storm Woods run for 20 yds to the Hawa 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:09
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+5
12.6%
Terron Ward run for 5 yds to the Hawa 7Similar
Q2 5:09
2ND & 5
OPP 7
+5
12.6%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Connor Hamlett for 5 yds to the Hawa 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
7.6%
Terron Ward run for 2 yds for a TD, (Garrett Owens KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q2 1:26
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
9.4%
Ikaika Woolsey pass incomplete to Harold MoleniSimilar
Q2 1:26
2ND & 10
OWN 17
0
9.4%
Ikaika Woolsey pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q2 1:26
3RD & 10
OWN 17
0
9.2%
Ikaika Woolsey pass incomplete to Marcus KempSimilar
Q2 1:26
4TH & 10
OWN 17
+15
9.2%
Scott Harding punt for 43 yds , Rahmel Dockery returns for 15 yds to the Hawa 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 0:2392% → 91%
Q2 1:03
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
7.9%
Sean Mannion pass incomplete to Storm WoodsSimilar
Q2 1:03
2ND & 10
OPP 45
-5
7.9%
OREGON ST Penalty, false start (Richard Mullaney) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 1:03
2ND & 15
50
+7
7.9%
Sean Mannion run for 7 yds to the Hawa 43Similar
Q2 1:03
3RD & 8
OPP 43
-2
8.2%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Storm Woods for a loss of 2 yards to the Hawa 45Similar
Q2 0:40
4TH & 10
OPP 45
0
8.6%
Keith Kostol punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Scott Harding at the Hawa 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 17END OF HALF
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:2510% → 10%
Q2 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
10.3%
Ikaika Woolsey pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q2 0:32
2ND & 10
OWN 10
-4
10.3%
Ikaika Woolsey sacked by Obum Gwacham for a loss of 4 yards to the Hawa 6Similar
Q2 0:07
3RD & 14
OWN 6
+1
9.7%
Steven Lakalaka run for 1 yd to the Hawa 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 18TD
11 plays · 52 yds · 4:0493% → 98%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-5
7.0%
OREGON ST Penalty, false start (Sean Harlow) to the OrgSt 43Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 43
-1
7.0%
Storm Woods run for a loss of 1 yard to the OrgSt 42Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 16
OWN 42
+12
7.0%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Storm Woods for 12 yds to the Hawa 46Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 46
+6
7.2%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Victor Bolden for 6 yds to the Hawa 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
6.9%
Sean Mannion pass incomplete to Victor Bolden, broken up by Dee MaggittSimilar
Q3 12:55
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+8
6.6%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Victor Bolden for 8 yds to the Hawa 32Similar
Q3 12:55
3RD & 2
OPP 32
+22
6.5%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Hunter Jarmon for 22 yds to the Hawa 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
6.2%
Storm Woods run for 2 yds to the Hawa 8Similar
Q3 10:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
2.0%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Victor Bolden for 8 yds for a TD, (Garrett Owens KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q3 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
4.4%
Ikaika Woolsey pass incomplete to Scott HardingSimilar
Q3 10:45
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+9
4.2%
Ikaika Woolsey pass complete to Marcus Kemp for 9 yds to the Hawa 47Similar
Q3 10:45
3RD & 1
OWN 47
0
4.5%
Steven Lakalaka run for no gain to the Hawa 47Similar
Q3 10:45
4TH & 1
OWN 47
-5
4.5%
HAWAII Penalty, false start (Brenden Urban) to the Hawa 42Similar
Q3 10:45
4TH & 6
OWN 42
0
4.2%
Scott Harding punt for 34 yds, downed at the OrgSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 20PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q3 9:28
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
2.0%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Victor Bolden for no gain to the OrgSt 24Similar
Q3 9:28
2ND & 10
OWN 24
0
2.0%
Sean Mannion pass incomplete to Victor BoldenSimilar
Q3 9:28
3RD & 10
OWN 24
+12
2.1%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Connor Hamlett for 12 yds to the OrgSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:28
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
2.0%
Terron Ward run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 39Similar
Q3 9:28
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+6
1.9%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Terron Ward for 6 yds to the OrgSt 45Similar
Q3 9:28
3RD & 1
OWN 45
0
1.9%
Sean Mannion pass incomplete to Storm WoodsSimilar
Q3 9:28
4TH & 1
OWN 45
0
2.2%
Keith Kostol punt for 47 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 21INT
7 plays · 24 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q3 7:08
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+4
2.0%
Joey Iosefa run for 4 yds to the Hawa 12Similar
Q3 7:08
2ND & 6
OWN 12
0
2.0%
Ikaika Woolsey pass incomplete to Harold MoleniSimilar
Q3 7:08
3RD & 6
OWN 12
+10
2.0%
OREGON ST Penalty, Defensive holding (10 Yards) to the Hawa 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:08
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-3
2.0%
Joey Iosefa run for a loss of 3 yards to the Hawa 19Similar
Q3 7:08
2ND & 13
OWN 19
0
2.0%
Ikaika Woolsey pass incomplete to Quinton PedrozaSimilar
Q3 7:08
3RD & 13
OWN 19
+13
2.0%
Ikaika Woolsey pass complete to Marcus Kemp for 13 yds to the Hawa 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:08
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
2.1%
Ikaika Woolsey pass intercepted Steven Nelson return for no gain to the OrgSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0099% → 98%
Q3 5:22
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-10
1.5%
OREGON ST Penalty, Offensive holding (Grant Bays) to the OrgSt 12Similar
Q3 5:22
1ST & 20
OWN 12
+8
1.5%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Jordan Villamin for 8 yds to the OrgSt 20Similar
Q3 5:22
2ND & 12
OWN 20
+11
1.5%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Victor Bolden for 11 yds to the OrgSt 31Similar
Q3 5:22
3RD & 1
OWN 31
-1
1.5%
Storm Woods run for a loss of 1 yard to the OrgSt 30Similar
Q3 5:22
4TH & 2
OWN 30
+22
1.7%
Keith Kostol punt for 47 yds , Scott Harding returns for 22 yds to the Hawa 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 23TD
12 plays · 55 yds · 2:362% → 4%
Q3 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
1.5%
Ikaika Woolsey pass incomplete to Marcus Kemp, broken up by Larry ScottSimilar
Q3 2:31
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+23
1.4%
Ikaika Woolsey pass complete to Marcus Kemp for 23 yds to the OrgSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:31
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
1.7%
Ikaika Woolsey pass incomplete to Marcus Kemp, broken up by Larry ScottSimilar
Q3 2:31
2ND & 10
OPP 32
0
1.7%
Joey Iosefa run for no gain to the OrgSt 32Similar
Q3 2:31
3RD & 10
OPP 32
+12
1.6%
Ikaika Woolsey pass complete to Quinton Pedroza for 12 yds to the OrgSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:31
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-10
1.7%
HAWAII Penalty, Offensive holding (Brenden Urban) to the OrgSt 30Similar
Q3 2:31
1ST & 20
OPP 30
+1
1.7%
Ikaika Woolsey pass complete to Justin Vele for 1 yd to the OrgSt 29Similar
Q3 2:31
2ND & 19
OPP 29
0
1.6%
Ikaika Woolsey pass incomplete to Quinton PedrozaSimilar
Q3 2:31
3RD & 19
OPP 29
+18
1.5%
Ikaika Woolsey run for 18 yds to the OrgSt 11Similar
Q3 2:31
4TH & 1
OPP 11
+1
1.6%
Joey Iosefa run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+9
1.9%
Ikaika Woolsey run for 9 yds to the OrgSt 1Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
3.5%
Joey Iosefa run for 1 yd for a TD, (Tyler Hadden KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
1.6%
Terron Ward run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 26Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+5
1.6%
Terron Ward run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 31Similar
Q4 14:55
3RD & 4
OWN 31
-6
1.6%
Sean Mannion sacked by TJ Taimatuia for a loss of 6 yards to the OrgSt 25Similar
Q4 14:55
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+9
1.7%
Keith Kostol punt , Lance Williams returns for 9 yds to the OrgSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 25TD
3 plays · 16 yds · 0:393% → 6%
Q4 12:46
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+8
2.9%
Joey Iosefa run for 8 yds to the OrgSt 8Similar
Q4 12:46
2ND & 2
OPP 8
+3
2.9%
Joey Iosefa run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
5.9%
Joey Iosefa run for 5 yds for a TD, (Ikaika Woolsey failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 27FG
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:036% → 12%
Q4 11:58
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-2
5.9%
Joey Iosefa run for a loss of 2 yards to the OrgSt 22Similar
Q4 11:58
2ND & 12
OPP 22
+8
5.6%
Ikaika Woolsey pass complete to Quinton Pedroza for 8 yds to the OrgSt 14Similar
Q4 11:58
3RD & 4
OPP 14
0
5.7%
Ikaika Woolsey pass incomplete to Scott Harding, broken up by Ryan MurphySimilar
Q4 10:55
4TH & 4
OPP 14
+33
11.5%
Tyler Hadden 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 28PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q4 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
4.7%
Storm Woods run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 30Similar
Q4 10:55
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-1
4.8%
Storm Woods run for a loss of 1 yard to the OrgSt 29Similar
Q4 10:55
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
5.0%
Sean Mannion pass incomplete to Richard MullaneySimilar
Q4 10:55
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
5.1%
Keith Kostol punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Scott Harding at the Hawa 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 29DOWNS
16 plays · 45 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q4 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
6.5%
Ikaika Woolsey pass incomplete to Marcus KempSimilar
Q4 9:10
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+16
6.5%
Joey Iosefa run for 1 yd to the Hawa 35 for a 1ST down OREGON ST Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:10
1ST & 10
50
0
7.2%
Ikaika Woolsey pass incomplete to Quinton PedrozaSimilar
Q4 9:10
2ND & 10
50
+9
7.1%
Ikaika Woolsey pass complete to Scott Harding for 9 yds to the OrgSt 41Similar
Q4 9:10
3RD & 1
OPP 41
+5
7.9%
Joey Iosefa run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:10
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
7.5%
Ikaika Woolsey pass incomplete to Quinton PedrozaSimilar
Q4 9:10
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+4
7.5%
Ikaika Woolsey run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 32Similar
Q4 9:10
3RD & 6
OPP 32
0
8.0%
Ikaika Woolsey pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q4 9:10
4TH & 6
OPP 32
+12
7.3%
OREGON ST Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Steven Nelson) to the OrgSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:10
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-5
8.4%
HAWAII Penalty, false start (Brenden Urban) to the OrgSt 25Similar
Q4 9:10
1ST & 15
OPP 25
0
7.9%
Ikaika Woolsey pass incomplete to Quinton PedrozaSimilar
Q4 9:10
2ND & 15
OPP 25
0
7.7%
Ikaika Woolsey pass incomplete to Marcus KempSimilar
Q4 9:10
3RD & 15
OPP 25
-10
7.2%
HAWAII Penalty, Offensive holding (Brenden Urban) to the OrgSt 35Similar
Q4 9:10
3RD & 25
OPP 35
-15
7.2%
HAWAII Penalty, Offensive pass interference (Marcus Kemp) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 9:10
3RD & 40
50
+16
6.5%
Ikaika Woolsey pass complete to Joey Iosefa for 16 yds to the OrgSt 34Similar
Q4 9:10
4TH & 24
OPP 34
+13
6.7%
Ikaika Woolsey pass complete to Joey Iosefa for 13 yds to the OrgSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 30PUNT
10 plays · 22 yds · 2:2597% → 98%
Q4 5:12
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
3.3%
Terron Ward run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 24Similar
Q4 5:12
2ND & 7
OWN 24
+2
3.4%
Victor Bolden run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 26Similar
Q4 5:12
3RD & 5
OWN 26
+20
3.4%
Terron Ward run for 20 yds to the OrgSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:12
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
3.1%
Storm Woods run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 49Similar
Q4 3:00
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+2
2.0%
Terron Ward run for 2 yds to the Hawa 49Similar
Q4 2:53
3RD & 5
OPP 49
-8
1.8%
Sean Mannion sacked by Kennedy Tulimasealii for a loss of 8 yards to the OrgSt 43Similar
Q4 2:47
4TH & 13
OWN 43
0
2.0%
Keith Kostol punt for 44 yds, downed at the Hawa 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 31TD
8 plays · 87 yds · 1:021% → 9%
Q4 2:37
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
1.1%
Ikaika Woolsey pass incomplete to Scott HardingSimilar
Q4 2:37
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+4
1.0%
Ikaika Woolsey pass complete to Quinton Pedroza for 4 yds to the Hawa 17Similar
Q4 2:37
3RD & 6
OWN 17
0
1.0%
Ikaika Woolsey pass incomplete to Scott Harding, broken up by Michael DoctorSimilar
Q4 2:37
4TH & 6
OWN 17
+5
1.0%
OREGON ST Penalty, substitution infraction (5 Yards) to the Hawa 22Similar
Q4 2:37
4TH & 1
OWN 22
+41
1.0%
Ikaika Woolsey pass complete to Marcus Kemp for 41 yds to the OrgSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:37
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+15
1.2%
OREGON ST Penalty, roughing passer (Tyrequek Zimmerman) to the OrgSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:37
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+20
1.3%
Ikaika Woolsey pass complete to Quinton Pedroza for 20 yds to the OrgSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
9.0%
Ikaika Woolsey run for 2 yds for a TD, (Tyler Hadden KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 32END OF GAME
4 plays · -6 yds · 0:0097% → 96%
Q4 1:33
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-2
3.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Hawa 44Similar
Q4 1:33
2ND & 12
OPP 44
-2
3.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Hawa 46Similar
Q4 1:33
3RD & 14
OPP 46
-2
3.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Hawa 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:35
Ikaika Woolsey run for 2 yds for a TD, (Tyler Hadden KICK)
+7.7
FG · Q4 10:55
Tyler Hadden 33 yd FG GOOD
+5.9
TD · Q2 10:52
Joey Iosefa run for 2 yds for a TD, (Tyler Hadden KICK)
+5.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com