HAW
Hawai'i 44 at Air Force 35
AF2025 · Week 5 · Sep 27, 2025 · Falcon Stadium
Speed4x
Win probability · AF
modelAF aheadHAW aheadconfidence bandkey play
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HAW · Drive 1TD · 7 plays · 75 yds
Q1 15:00
Reagan Tubbs kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
70.2%
0.0
Q1 14:51
Micah Alejado run for 1 yd to the HAW 26
68.4%
-1.8
Q1 14:18
Landon Sims run for 5 yds to the HAW 31
67.9%
-0.5
Q1 13:28
Micah Alejado pass complete to Jackson Harris for 5 yds to the HAW 36 for a 1ST down
67.9%
0.0
Q1 12:44
Micah Alejado pass complete to Cam Barfield for 59 yds to the AF 5 for a 1ST down
67.7%
-0.2
Q1 12:03
Micah Alejado run for a loss of 1 yard to the AF 6
65.5%
-2.2
Q1 11:25
Micah Alejado pass complete to Jackson Harris for 6 yds for a TD (Kansei Matsuzawa KICK)
49.6%
-15.9
AF · Drive 2TD · 5 plays · 74 yds
Q1 11:20
Kansei Matsuzawa kickoff for 60 yds , Cade Harris return for 21 yds to the AF 26
51.4%
+1.8
Q1 11:09
Liam Szarka run for 64 yds to the HAW 10 for a 1ST down
54.6%
+3.2
Q1 10:23
Cade Harris run for 5 yds to the HAW 5
57.6%
+3.0
Q1 9:56
Dylan Carson run for no gain to the HAW 5
57.6%
0.0
Q1 9:16
Liam Szarka pass complete to Bruin Fleischmann for 5 yds for a TD (Jacob Medina KICK)
72.4%
+14.8
HAW · Drive 3TD · 7 plays · 75 yds
Q1 9:16
Reagan Tubbs kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
70.6%
-1.8
Q1 9:02
Micah Alejado pass complete to Tama Uiliata for 6 yds to the HAW 31
68.0%
-2.6
Q1 8:38
Micah Alejado pass complete to Pofele Ashlock for 14 yds to the HAW 45 for a 1ST down
67.6%
-0.4
Q1 7:56
Micah Alejado pass complete to Landon Sims for 24 yds to the AF 31 for a 1ST down
65.9%
-1.7
Q1 7:27
Landon Sims run for 3 yds to the AF 28
65.3%
-0.6
Q1 6:45
Micah Alejado run for 4 yds to the AF 24
65.3%
0.0
Q1 6:11
Micah Alejado pass complete to Brandon White for 24 yds for a TD (Kansei Matsuzawa KICK)
48.9%
-16.4
AF · Drive 4DOWNS · 11 plays · 68 yds
Q1 6:07
Kansei Matsuzawa kickoff for 55 yds , Cade Harris return for 15 yds to the AF 25
50.7%
+1.8
Q1 5:53
Liam Szarka pass complete to Kade Frew for 4 yds to the AF 29
54.1%
+3.4
Q1 5:29
Kade Frew run for 12 yds to the AF 41 for a 1ST down
54.1%
0.0
Q1 4:56
Liam Szarka pass complete to Tre Roberson for 29 yds to the HAW 30 for a 1ST down
54.6%
+0.5
Q1 4:26
Owen Allen run for 3 yds to the HAW 27
56.9%
+2.3
Q1 3:48
Liam Szarka run for 6 yds to the HAW 21
56.9%
-0.1
Q1 3:11
Owen Allen run for 6 yds to the HAW 15 for a 1ST down
56.6%
-0.2
Q1 2:38
Rocco Conti run for 2 yds to the HAW 13
56.8%
+0.2
Q1 2:07
Liam Szarka run for 2 yds to the HAW 11
56.7%
-0.1
Q1 1:39
Liam Szarka pass complete to Cade Harris for 2 yds to the HAW 9
56.1%
-0.6
Q1 1:03
Liam Szarka run for 2 yds to the HAW 7
55.7%
-0.4
HAW · Drive 5FG · 28 plays · 80 yds
Q1 0:58
Cam Barfield run for no gain to the HAW 7
49.2%
-6.5
Q1 0:31
Micah Alejado pass incomplete to Pofele Ashlock
49.0%
-0.2
Q1 0:00
Micah Alejado pass complete to Brandon White for 11 yds to the HAW 18 for a 1ST down
48.9%
-0.1
Q2 14:56
Micah Alejado pass complete to Tama Uiliata for 5 yds to the HAW 23
48.9%
0.0
Q2 14:23
Micah Alejado pass complete to Tama Uiliata for 6 yds to the HAW 29 for a 1ST down
48.9%
0.0
Q2 13:55
Cam Barfield run for a loss of 3 yards to the HAW 26
48.9%
0.0
Q2 13:09
Micah Alejado pass complete to Blaze Kamoku for 12 yds to the HAW 38
48.9%
0.0
Q2 12:38
Landon Sims run for 3 yds to the HAW 41 for a 1ST down
47.2%
-1.7
Q2 12:03
Micah Alejado pass incomplete to Jackson Harris
47.2%
0.0
Q2 11:53
Micah Alejado run for 4 yds to the HAW 45
47.2%
-0.1
Q2 11:53
Timeout Hawai'i, clock 11:53
47.2%
0.0
Q2 11:01
Micah Alejado pass complete to Tama Uiliata for 7 yds to the AF 48 for a 1ST down
47.2%
0.0
Q2 10:35
Landon Sims run for 1 yd to the AF 47
46.0%
-1.2
Q2 9:58
Micah Alejado pass complete to Karsyn Pupunu for 7 yds to the AF 40
46.0%
0.0
Q2 9:06
Micah Alejado pass complete to Pofele Ashlock for 7 yds to the AF 33 for a 1ST down
45.6%
-0.4
Q2 8:38
Landon Sims run for 7 yds to the AF 26
45.6%
0.0
Q2 7:53
Micah Alejado pass complete to Cam Barfield for 2 yds to the AF 28
43.5%
-2.1
Q2 7:18
Micah Alejado pass complete to Cam Barfield for 7 yds to the AF 21 for a 1ST down
43.5%
0.0
Q2 6:40
Micah Alejado pass complete to Brandon White for 2 yds to the AF 19
43.5%
0.0
Q2 5:59
Cam Barfield run for a loss of 4 yards to the AF 23
43.5%
0.0
Q2 5:13
Micah Alejado pass complete to Jackson Harris for 14 yds to the AF 9 for a 1ST down
43.5%
0.0
Q2 4:37
(04:39) Shotgun Alejado,Micah pass complete short left to Harris,Jackson caught at AF02, for 9 yards to the AF00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 04:37 PENALTY UH Holding (Kaio,Judah) 10 yards from AF09 to AF19. NO PLAY.
43.5%
0.0
Q2 4:32
Micah Alejado pass incomplete to Landon Sims
43.5%
0.0
Q2 4:25
Micah Alejado run for 6 yds to the AF 13
43.5%
0.0
Q2 3:58
Timeout Hawai'i, clock 03:58
43.5%
0.0
Q2 3:52
Micah Alejado pass incomplete to Pofele Ashlock
43.5%
0.0
Q2 3:49
Kansei Matsuzawa 31 yd FG GOOD
40.2%
-3.3
Q2 3:49
Timeout Air Force, clock 03:49
49.3%
+9.1
AF · Drive 6PUNT · 5 plays · 8 yds
Q2 3:49
Kansei Matsuzawa kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
39.8%
-9.5
Q2 3:40
Liam Szarka run for 7 yds to the AF 32
41.4%
+1.6
Q2 3:09
Dylan Carson run for 1 yd to the AF 33
41.4%
0.0
Q2 2:34
Air Force Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Yards) declined
41.3%
-0.1
Q2 2:21
Luke Freer punt for 55 yds , Tama Uiliata returns for 14 yds to the HAW 26
41.3%
0.0
HAW · Drive 7PUNT · 7 plays · 25 yds
Q2 2:14
Landon Sims run for 3 yds to the HAW 29
37.7%
-3.6
Q2 2:14
Timeout Air Force, clock 02:14
37.7%
0.0
Q2 1:55
Micah Alejado pass complete to Pofele Ashlock for 18 yds to the HAW 47 for a 1ST down
37.6%
-0.1
Q2 1:51
Micah Alejado pass incomplete to Brandon White
36.2%
-1.4
Q2 1:44
Micah Alejado run for 4 yds to the AF 49
36.2%
0.0
Q2 1:10
Micah Alejado pass incomplete to Pofele Ashlock
35.8%
-0.5
Q2 1:00
Billy Gowers punt for 49 yds for a touchback
36.1%
+0.3
AF · Drive 8END OF HALF · 2 plays · 9 yds
Q2 0:54
Liam Szarka run for 5 yds to the AF 25
38.7%
+2.6
Q2 0:00
Liam Szarka run for 4 yds to the AF 29
36.1%
-2.7
AF · Drive 9TD · 6 plays · 75 yds
Q3 15:00
Kansei Matsuzawa kickoff for 56 yds
38.8%
+2.8
Q3 14:53
Dylan Carson run for 6 yds to the AF 31
36.6%
-2.3
Q3 14:17
Liam Szarka run for 7 yds to the AF 38 for a 1ST down
36.6%
0.0
Q3 13:45
Cade Harris run for a loss of 1 yard to the AF 37
35.7%
-0.8
Q3 13:03
Liam Szarka pass complete to Quin Smith for 52 yds to the HAW 11 for a 1ST down
35.5%
-0.2
Q3 12:33
Kade Frew run for 11 yds for a TD (Jacob Medina KICK)
61.2%
+25.7
HAW · Drive 10DOWNS · 9 plays · 27 yds
Q3 12:33
Reagan Tubbs kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
58.4%
-2.8
Q3 12:13
Micah Alejado pass complete to Jackson Harris for 9 yds to the HAW 34
54.1%
-4.3
Q3 11:58
(12:00) Shotgun Alejado,Micah pass incomplete short left to Ashlock,Pofele thrown to UH35 broken up by Elie-Stuart,Jordan PENALTY UH Ineligible Downfield on Pass 5 yards from UH34 to UH29. NO PLAY.
54.1%
0.0
Q3 11:30
Landon Sims run for a loss of 2 yards to the HAW 27
54.1%
0.0
Q3 11:03
Micah Alejado pass complete to Jackson Harris for 21 yds to the HAW 48 for a 1ST down
54.1%
0.0
Q3 10:30
Christian Vaughn run for 1 yd to the HAW 49
52.2%
-2.0
Q3 10:02
Micah Alejado pass incomplete to Tama Uiliata
52.2%
0.0
Q3 9:55
Micah Alejado pass complete to Tama Uiliata for 7 yds to the AF 44
52.2%
0.0
Q3 9:21
Micah Alejado run for a loss of 4 yards to the AF 48
52.5%
+0.3
AF · Drive 11DOWNS · 5 plays · 7 yds
Q3 9:14
(09:19) No Huddle Szarka,Liam pass incomplete deep right to Roberson,Tre thrown to UH28 PENALTY AF Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Elwood,Nathan) 5 yards from AF48 to AF43. NO PLAY.
59.4%
+6.9
Q3 9:04
Liam Szarka run for 6 yds to the AF 49
59.1%
-0.3
Q3 8:29
Liam Szarka run for 3 yds to the HAW 48
59.4%
+0.3
Q3 7:53
Liam Szarka run for 3 yds to the HAW 45
60.1%
+0.7
Q3 7:33
Quin Smith pass incomplete to Owen Allen
60.1%
0.0
HAW · Drive 12TD · 10 plays · 55 yds
Q3 7:26
Micah Alejado pass incomplete to Tama Uiliata
51.2%
-8.9
Q3 7:21
Micah Alejado pass incomplete to Landon Sims
51.2%
0.0
Q3 7:13
Micah Alejado pass complete to Tama Uiliata for 11 yds to the AF 44 for a 1ST down
51.2%
0.0
Q3 6:37
Micah Alejado pass complete to Karsyn Pupunu for 8 yds to the AF 36
50.9%
-0.3
Q3 5:55
Micah Alejado pass complete to Koa Eldredge for 13 yds to the AF 23 for a 1ST down
50.8%
-0.1
Q3 5:25
Cam Barfield run for 2 yds to the AF 21
50.9%
+0.1
Q3 4:38
Micah Alejado pass complete to Brandon White for 4 yds to the AF 17
51.0%
+0.1
Q3 3:55
Micah Alejado pass complete to Landon Sims for 13 yds to the AF 4 for a 1ST down
50.8%
-0.2
Q3 3:12
Micah Alejado pass complete to Brandon White for 3 yds to the AF 1
50.8%
0.0
Q3 2:44
Landon Sims run for 1 yd for a TD (Kansei Matsuzawa KICK)
27.8%
-23.0
AF · Drive 13INT · 4 plays · 16 yds
Q3 2:44
Kansei Matsuzawa kickoff for 54 yds
28.9%
+1.1
Q3 2:37
Dylan Carson run for a loss of 1 yard to the AF 24
30.3%
+1.3
Q3 2:01
Cade Harris run for 17 yds to the AF 41 for a 1ST down
30.3%
0.0
Q3 1:25
Liam Szarka pass intercepted Matagi Thompson return for 14 yds to the AF 37
28.2%
-2.1
HAW · Drive 14TD · 4 plays · 37 yds
Q3 1:12
Micah Alejado pass complete to Brandon White for 5 yds to the AF 32
26.7%
-1.5
Q3 0:39
Hawai'i Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Micah Alejado) to the AF 42
26.7%
0.0
Q3 0:00
Micah Alejado pass complete to Jackson Harris for 15 yds to the AF 27 for a 1ST down
26.7%
0.0
Q4 14:55
Cam Barfield run for 27 yds for a TD (Kansei Matsuzawa KICK)
14.2%
-12.5
AF · Drive 15TD · 3 plays · 75 yds
Q4 14:55
Kansei Matsuzawa kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
14.2%
0.0
Q4 14:46
Cade Harris run for 2 yds to the AF 27
16.6%
+2.4
Q4 14:04
Liam Szarka pass complete to Cade Harris for 73 yds for a TD (Jacob Medina KICK)
27.3%
+10.7
HAW · Drive 16FG · 10 plays · 21 yds
Q4 14:04
Reagan Tubbs kickoff Air Force Penalty, Offensive Offside (Yards) declined
27.3%
0.0
Q4 14:00
Reagan Tubbs kickoff for 12 yds
27.3%
0.0
Q4 14:00
Micah Alejado pass incomplete to Jackson Harris
26.3%
-1.0
Q4 13:53
Landon Sims run for 1 yd to the AF 41
26.3%
0.0
Q4 13:03
Micah Alejado pass complete to Pofele Ashlock for 13 yds to the AF 28 for a 1ST down
25.5%
-0.8
Q4 12:36
Landon Sims run for 5 yds to the AF 23
25.0%
-0.4
Q4 11:54
Micah Alejado run for 2 yds to the AF 21
23.7%
-1.3
Q4 11:18
Micah Alejado pass incomplete to Tama Uiliata
23.6%
-0.1
Q4 11:14
Kansei Matsuzawa 39 yd FG GOOD
17.9%
-5.7
Q4 11:14
Timeout Air Force, clock 11:14
26.3%
+8.4
AF · Drive 17TD · 13 plays · 75 yds
Q4 11:14
Kansei Matsuzawa kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
16.4%
-9.9
Q4 11:05
Liam Szarka run for 7 yds to the AF 32
22.8%
+6.3
Q4 10:39
Dylan Carson run for 5 yds to the AF 37 for a 1ST down
22.8%
0.0
Q4 10:06
Liam Szarka sacked by Qwyn Williams for a loss of 9 yards to the AF 28
22.8%
0.0
Q4 9:25
Liam Szarka run for a loss of 2 yards to the AF 26
22.5%
-0.3
Q4 8:38
Liam Szarka pass complete to Quin Smith for 24 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down
20.4%
-2.1
Q4 8:16
Owen Allen run for 2 yds to the HAW 48
20.7%
+0.3
Q4 7:37
Liam Szarka run for 30 yds to the HAW 18 for a 1ST down
18.2%
-2.5
Q4 6:57
Liam Szarka pass complete to Bruin Fleischmann for 14 yds to the HAW 4 for a 1ST down
19.2%
+1.0
Q4 6:36
PENALTY AF False Start (Falk,Alec) 5 yards from UH04 to UH09. NO PLAY.
19.2%
0.0
Q4 6:16
Hawai'i Penalty, Face Mask (2 yards) (2 Yards) to the HAW 2 for a 1ST down
19.3%
+0.1
Q4 5:58
Kemper Hodges run for 2 yds for a TD (Jacob Medina KICK)
39.6%
+20.3
Q4 5:58
Timeout Air Force, clock 05:58
14.2%
-25.4
HAW · Drive 18TD · 4 plays · 75 yds
Q4 5:58
Reagan Tubbs kickoff for 59 yds
35.5%
+21.4
Q4 5:53
Micah Alejado pass complete to Brandon White for 1 yd to the HAW 26
26.3%
-9.2
Q4 5:15
Micah Alejado pass incomplete to Brandon White
26.3%
0.0
Q4 5:06
Micah Alejado pass complete to Jackson Harris for 74 yds for a TD (Kansei Matsuzawa KICK)
13.9%
-12.4
AF · Drive 19TD · 3 plays · 75 yds
Q4 5:06
Kansei Matsuzawa kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
13.9%
0.0
Q4 4:54
Liam Szarka pass complete to Cade Harris for 41 yds to the HAW 34 for a 1ST down
17.5%
+3.6
Q4 4:30
Liam Szarka pass complete to Quin Smith for 34 yds for a TD (Jacob Medina KICK)
38.1%
+20.6
HAW · Drive 20FG · 18 plays · 67 yds
Q4 4:29
Reagan Tubbs kickoff for 39 yds , Josh Sagapolutele return for no gain to the HAW 26
32.9%
-5.2
Q4 4:23
(04:26) Shotgun Barfield,Cam rush right for 3 yards loss to the UH23 (Fisher,Luke; Fletcher,Blake) PENALTY AF Personal Foul (Perez,Alexander) 15 yards from UH26 to UH41, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
24.6%
-8.3
Q4 3:54
Micah Alejado pass complete to Devon Tauaefa for 16 yds to the AF 43 for a 1ST down
22.9%
-1.7
Q4 3:18
Landon Sims run for 12 yds to the AF 31 for a 1ST down
22.3%
-0.6
Q4 2:36
Timeout Air Force, clock 02:36
21.6%
-0.7
Q4 2:33
Micah Alejado pass complete to Blaze Kamoku for 12 yds to the AF 19 for a 1ST down
21.6%
0.0
Q4 2:33
Landon Sims run for 3 yds to the AF 16
21.6%
0.0
Q4 2:33
Timeout Air Force, clock 02:33
20.5%
-1.0
Q4 2:27
Timeout Air Force, clock 02:27
20.5%
0.0
Q4 2:25
Landon Sims run for 15 yds to the AF 1 for a 1ST down
20.5%
0.0
Q4 2:18
(02:24) Kneel down by Hawaii at AF02 for loss of 1 yard.
19.0%
-1.6
Q4 2:00
Timeout Air Force, clock 02:00
17.7%
-1.3
Q4 1:52
(01:57) Kneel down by Hawaii at AF03 for loss of 1 yard.
17.0%
-0.6
Q4 1:20
Timeout Hawai'i, clock 01:20
16.7%
-0.3
Q4 1:20
PENALTY AF Delay Of Game (Zdroik,Payton) 2 yards from AF03 to AF01. NO PLAY.
16.7%
0.0
Q4 1:10
(01:14) Kneel down by Hawaii at AF07 for loss of 6 yards.
16.7%
0.0
Q4 1:10
Timeout Hawai'i, clock 01:10
16.7%
0.0
Q4 0:34
Kansei Matsuzawa 25 yd FG GOOD
17.4%
+0.7
AF · Drive 21END OF GAME · 3 plays · 4 yds
Q4 0:34
Kansei Matsuzawa kickoff for 63 yds
17.6%
+0.1
Q4 0:25
Liam Szarka sacked by Jackie Johnson III for a loss of 4 yards to the AF 21
13.4%
-4.1
Q4 0:00
Liam Szarka run for 8 yds to the AF 29
12.8%
-0.6
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 12:33
Kade Frew run for 11 yds for a TD (Jacob Medina KICK)
+25.7
KEY PLAY · Q4 5:58
Timeout Air Force, clock 05:58
-25.4
TD · Q3 2:44
Landon Sims run for 1 yd for a TD (Kansei Matsuzawa KICK)
-23