HAW
Hawai'i 31 at Colorado State 19
CSU2025 · Week 8 · Oct 18, 2025 · Canvas Stadium
Win probability · CSU
modelCSU aheadHAW aheadconfidence bandkey play
What moved it - hover a play below
Q4 0:00 · M. Alejado takes a knee
01
HAW has the ball
−28
02
Blowout context favors the offense
−13
03
HAW leading by 12
−6
04
Market gave CSU a 57% pregame chance
−4
Play by play - hover to pin the curve
Q1 15:00
Kansei Matsuzawa kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
0.0
Q1 14:54
Justin Marshall run for 6 yds to the CSU 31
+2.9
Q1 14:14
Jackson Brousseau pass incomplete to Jordan Ross
+0.3
Q1 14:10
Jackson Brousseau pass incomplete to Tommy Maher
0.0
Q1 14:03
Bryan Hansen punt for 34 yds
-0.3
Q1 13:56
Micah Alejado pass complete to Jackson Harris for 8 yds to the HAW 43
-3.4
Q1 13:17
Micah Alejado pass complete to Karsyn Pupunu for 13 yds to the CSU 44 for a 1ST down
-1.4
Q1 12:35
Micah Alejado run for 6 yds to the CSU 38
-1.1
Q1 11:55
Landon Sims run for 2 yds to the CSU 36
-0.1
Q1 11:12
Micah Alejado pass complete to Jackson Harris for 6 yds to the CSU 30 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q1 10:35
Micah Alejado pass incomplete to Devon Tauaefa
0.0
Q1 10:25
Micah Alejado pass complete to Nick Cenacle for 3 yds to the CSU 27
0.0
Q1 9:40
Micah Alejado pass complete to Cam Barfield for 21 yds to the CSU 6 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q1 9:05
(09:07) No Huddle-Shotgun Alejado,Micah pass incomplete short left to Pupunu,Karsyn thrown to CSU00 broken up by Joe,Lemondre PENALTY CSU Pass Interference (Joe,Lemondre) 4 yards from CSU06 to CSU02, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
+0.1
Q1 8:46
Micah Alejado pass incomplete to Karsyn Pupunu
-0.2
Q1 8:43
(08:46) No Huddle-Shotgun Alejado,Micah pass incomplete short right to Ashlock,Pofele thrown to CSU00 PENALTY UH Pass Interference (Cenacle,Nick) 15 yards from CSU02 to CSU17. NO PLAY.
-0.1
Q1 8:38
Micah Alejado pass complete to Nick Cenacle for 17 yds for a TD (Kansei Matsuzawa KICK)
-15.2
Q1 8:38
Kansei Matsuzawa kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
+1.5
Q1 8:32
Jalen Dupree run for 5 yds to the CSU 30
+4.1
Q1 7:53
Jackson Brousseau pass incomplete to Jordan Ross
+0.1
Q1 7:41
Jackson Brousseau pass complete to Armani Winfield for 14 yds to the CSU 44 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q1 7:02
Jackson Brousseau pass complete to Tahj Bullock for a loss of 1 yard to the CSU 43
+0.6
Q1 6:31
Tahj Bullock run for 3 yds to the CSU 46
-0.1
Q1 5:46
Jackson Brousseau sacked for a loss of 2 yards to the CSU 44
-0.2
Q1 5:07
Bryan Hansen punt for 55 yds
0.0
Q1 5:02
Landon Sims run for 4 yds to the HAW 5
-4.6
Q1 4:21
Landon Sims run for 2 yds to the HAW 7
0.0
Q1 3:44
Timeout Hawai'i, clock 03:44
0.0
Q1 3:41
Micah Alejado pass incomplete to Pofele Ashlock
0.0
Q1 3:28
Billy Gowers punt for 51 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the HAW 33 , Javion Kinnard returns for 25 yds to the HAW 32 Colorado State Penalty, Offensive Holding (Yards) to the HAW 33
0.0
Q1 3:28
Billy Gowers punt for 51 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the CSU 42 , Javion Kinnard returns for 25 yds to the CSU 32 Colorado State Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jordan Ross) to the CSU 42
0.0
Q1 3:24
Jalen Dupree run for 5 yds to the CSU 47
+4.9
Q1 2:56
Jalen Dupree run for no gain to the CSU 47
+0.3
Q1 2:17
Jackson Brousseau pass incomplete to Armani Winfield
-0.2
Q1 2:12
Bryan Hansen punt for 53 yds for a touchback
0.0
Q1 2:12
PENALTY UH False Start (Spencer,Ethan) 5 yards from UH20 to UH15. NO PLAY.
-5.0
Q1 2:02
Micah Alejado run for no gain to the HAW 15
-0.2
Q1 1:26
Micah Alejado pass complete to Karsyn Pupunu for 7 yds to the HAW 22
-0.4
Q1 0:50
Micah Alejado pass complete to Landon Sims for 2 yds to the HAW 24
0.0
Q1 0:00
Billy Gowers punt for 67 yds , Javion Kinnard returns for 91 yds for a TD (Isaiah Hankins KICK)
+16.6
Q2 15:00
Isaiah Hankins kickoff for 64 yds
+4.2
Q2 14:53
Cam Barfield run for 3 yds to the HAW 28
-4.2
Q2 14:11
Micah Alejado run for 1 yd to the HAW 29
0.0
Q2 13:16
Micah Alejado pass complete to Nick Cenacle for 24 yds to the CSU 47 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q2 12:48
Landon Sims run for 8 yds to the CSU 39
-2.5
Q2 12:12
Micah Alejado pass incomplete to Pofele Ashlock
-0.1
Q2 12:05
Micah Alejado run for 3 yds to the CSU 36 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q2 11:23
Landon Sims run for 5 yds to the CSU 31
+0.1
Q2 10:45
Micah Alejado run for 3 yds to the CSU 28
+0.3
Q2 10:07
Micah Alejado pass intercepted Jace Bellah return for no gain to the CSU 16
0.0
Q2 10:01
Lloyd Avant run for 4 yds to the CSU 20
+6.3
Q2 9:25
Lloyd Avant run for 8 yds to the CSU 28 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q2 8:38
Jackson Brousseau run for 4 yds to the CSU 32
0.0
Q2 8:03
Lloyd Avant run for 7 yds to the CSU 39 for a 1ST down
+1.1
Q2 7:31
Lloyd Avant run for no gain to the CSU 39
+0.6
Q2 6:50
Justin Marshall run for 3 yds to the CSU 42
0.0
Q2 6:12
Jackson Brousseau pass incomplete to Kojo Antwi
0.0
Q2 6:06
Bryan Hansen punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Tama Uiliata at the HAW 25
-0.3
Q2 5:54
Micah Alejado pass complete to Jackson Harris for 75 yds for a TD (Kansei Matsuzawa KICK)
-24.4
Q2 5:54
Kansei Matsuzawa kickoff for 61 yds
0.0
Q2 5:47
Justin Marshall run for 1 yd to the CSU 36
+4.3
Q2 5:15
Jackson Brousseau pass incomplete to Armani Winfield
0.0
Q2 5:12
Jackson Brousseau pass incomplete to Justin Marshall
0.0
Q2 5:02
Bryan Hansen punt for 41 yds
0.0
Q2 4:56
Micah Alejado run for 4 yds to the HAW 27
-4.1
Q2 4:10
Micah Alejado pass complete to Karsyn Pupunu for 12 yds to the HAW 39 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q2 3:31
Micah Alejado pass incomplete to Karsyn Pupunu
-1.3
Q2 3:20
Micah Alejado pass complete to Tama Uiliata for 6 yds to the HAW 45
-2.2
Q2 2:38
Micah Alejado run for 2 yds to the HAW 47
0.0
Q2 2:05
Timeout Hawai'i, clock 02:05
+0.2
Q2 1:55
Billy Gowers punt for 43 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the CSU 25 , Tommy Maher returns for 15 yds to the CSU 25
0.0
Q2 1:55
Timeout Colorado State, clock 01:55
+7.7
Q2 1:48
Jalen Dupree run for 4 yds to the CSU 29
0.0
Q2 1:22
Jackson Brousseau pass complete to Jalen Dupree for 4 yds to the CSU 33
0.0
Q2 0:59
Jackson Brousseau pass complete to Jordan Ross for 14 yds to the CSU 47 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q2 0:54
(00:59) No Huddle-Shotgun Brousseau,Jackson pass incomplete deep right to Ross,Jordan thrown to UH20 broken up by Wilson-Jones,Jaheim PENALTY CSU Pass Interference (Ross,Jordan) 15 yards from CSU47 to CSU32. NO PLAY.
+0.9
Q2 0:42
Jackson Brousseau pass complete to Lavon Brown for 8 yds to the CSU 40
-0.9
Q2 0:29
Jackson Brousseau pass complete to Armani Winfield for 9 yds to the CSU 49
+0.6
Q2 0:19
Jackson Brousseau pass complete to Jalen Dupree for 10 yds Jalen Dupree fumbled, recovered by HAW Jackie Johnson III
+0.1
Q2 0:12
Micah Alejado pass incomplete to Jackson Harris
-8.9
Q2 0:10
Timeout Hawai'i, clock 00:10
0.0
Q2 0:06
Micah Alejado pass complete to Landon Sims for 8 yds to the HAW 49
0.0
Q2 0:04
Timeout Colorado State, clock 00:04
0.0
Q2 0:04
Micah Alejado pass complete to Pofele Ashlock for 7 yds to the CSU 44 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q2 0:00
Micah Alejado pass incomplete to Jackson Harris
-0.7
Q3 15:00
Isaiah Hankins kickoff for 59 yds
+8.2
Q3 14:55
Micah Alejado pass complete to Nick Cenacle for 6 yds to the HAW 41
-6.2
Q3 14:16
Micah Alejado pass complete to Landon Sims for a loss of 1 yard to the HAW 40
-1.7
Q3 13:26
Micah Alejado pass complete to Karsyn Pupunu for 20 yds to the CSU 40 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q3 12:46
Micah Alejado pass complete to Nick Cenacle for 16 yds to the CSU 24 for a 1ST down
-0.3
Q3 12:04
Micah Alejado run for no gain to the CSU 24
0.0
Q3 11:20
Landon Sims run for 13 yds to the CSU 11 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q3 10:36
Landon Sims run for 2 yds to the CSU 9
0.0
Q3 9:50
Micah Alejado pass complete to Jackson Harris for 9 yds for a TD (Kansei Matsuzawa KICK)
-9.1
Q3 9:50
Kansei Matsuzawa kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
+0.4
Q3 9:43
Justin Marshall run for 6 yds to the CSU 31
+1.3
Q3 9:09
Jackson Brousseau pass incomplete to Jordan Ross
0.0
Q3 8:45
Jackson Brousseau sacked by Luther McCoy for a loss of 9 yards to the CSU 22 Jackson Brousseau fumbled, recovered by CSU Aitor Urionabarrenechea , return for 0 yards
0.0
Q3 8:27
Bryan Hansen punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Tama Uiliata at the HAW 38
-0.2
Q3 8:20
Cam Barfield run for 2 yds to the HAW 40
-2.3
Q3 7:40
Micah Alejado pass complete to Karsyn Pupunu for 4 yds to the HAW 44
0.0
Q3 6:55
Micah Alejado pass complete to Pofele Ashlock for 19 yds to the CSU 37 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q3 6:08
Micah Alejado pass complete to Blaze Kamoku for 1 yd to the CSU 36
-0.5
Q3 5:29
Cam Barfield run for 13 yds to the CSU 23 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q3 4:49
Micah Alejado pass incomplete to Nick Cenacle
0.0
Q3 4:42
Landon Sims run for 1 yd to the CSU 22
0.0
Q3 4:03
(04:05) Shotgun Alejado,Micah pass incomplete deep left to Ashlock,Pofele thrown to CSU00 broken up by Noland,AJ, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY CSU Pass Interference (Noland,AJ) 12 yards from CSU22 to CSU10, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
-0.1
Q3 3:56
Micah Alejado pass incomplete to Pofele Ashlock
0.0
Q3 3:53
Timeout Hawai'i, clock 03:53
0.0
Q3 3:50
Micah Alejado run for 2 yds to the CSU 8
0.0
Q3 3:43
Micah Alejado pass complete to Nick Cenacle for no gain to the CSU 8
0.0
Q3 3:09
Kansei Matsuzawa 26 yd FG GOOD
-3.2
Q3 3:09
Kansei Matsuzawa kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
+0.2
Q3 3:01
Jackson Brousseau pass incomplete to Armani Winfield
+1.5
Q3 2:56
Lloyd Avant run for 12 yds to the CSU 37 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q3 2:27
Jackson Brousseau pass incomplete to Lavon Brown
0.0
Q3 2:21
Lloyd Avant run for 3 yds to the CSU 40
0.0
Q3 1:45
Lloyd Avant run for 12 yds to the HAW 48 for a 1ST down
+0.3
Q3 1:15
Jackson Brousseau sacked by Tariq Jones for a loss of 9 yards to the CSU 43
+0.2
Q3 0:44
Jackson Brousseau pass complete to Tay Lanier for 19 yds to the HAW 38 for a 1ST down
-1.8
Q3 0:00
Jackson Brousseau run for 4 yds to the HAW 34
+0.5
Q4 14:48
Jackson Brousseau pass complete to Javion Kinnard for 6 yds to the HAW 28 for a 1ST down
-0.2
Q4 14:13
Jackson Brousseau run for 7 yds to the HAW 21
+0.1
Q4 13:40
Javion Kinnard run for 2 yds to the HAW 19
-1.8
Q4 13:01
Jackson Brousseau run for 4 yds to the HAW 15 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q4 12:25
Jalen Dupree run for 8 yds to the HAW 7
0.0
Q4 11:58
Jackson Brousseau pass complete to Armani Winfield for 7 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
+8.4
Q4 11:58
Isaiah Hankins kickoff for 64 yds
-1.6
Q4 11:51
Cam Barfield run for 3 yds to the HAW 28
-0.8
Q4 11:11
Micah Alejado pass incomplete to Karsyn Pupunu
0.0
Q4 11:05
Micah Alejado pass incomplete to Jackson Harris
0.0
Q4 10:58
Billy Gowers punt for 49 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the CSU 23
0.0
Q4 10:53
Jackson Brousseau pass incomplete to Lavon Brown
+0.5
Q4 10:37
Jackson Brousseau pass complete to Javion Kinnard for 9 yds to the CSU 32
-1.2
Q4 10:06
Lloyd Avant run for 4 yds to the CSU 36 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q4 9:34
Jalen Dupree run for 1 yd to the CSU 37
-0.1
Q4 8:55
Jackson Brousseau pass complete to Ryan McConnell for 16 yds to the HAW 47 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q4 8:36
Jackson Brousseau pass incomplete to Tommy Maher
+0.9
Q4 8:28
Javion Kinnard run for no gain to the HAW 47
0.0
Q4 7:55
Javion Kinnard run for a loss of 1 yard to the HAW 48
0.0
Q4 7:17
Jackson Brousseau pass complete to Tay Lanier for 37 yds to the HAW 11 for a 1ST down
+0.1
Q4 7:03
Jalen Dupree run for 5 yds to the HAW 6 for a 1ST down Hawai'i Penalty, (3 Yards) to the HAW 3 for a 1ST down
+0.4
Q4 6:50
Tahj Bullock run for 3 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
+13.8
Q4 6:50
Timeout Colorado State, clock 06:50
-13.7
Q4 6:50
Isaiah Hankins kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
+10.7
Q4 6:44
Landon Sims run for 1 yd to the HAW 26
-5.3
Q4 6:08
Landon Sims run for 12 yds to the HAW 38 for a 1ST down
-0.6
Q4 5:27
Landon Sims run for 7 yds to the HAW 45
-2.5
Q4 4:42
Micah Alejado pass complete to Jackson Harris for 11 yds to the CSU 44 for a 1ST down
-1.5
Q4 4:07
Landon Sims run for 2 yds to the CSU 42
-1.0
Q4 3:27
Micah Alejado pass complete to Devon Tauaefa for 3 yds to the CSU 39
0.0
Q4 3:02
Timeout Hawai'i, clock 03:02
-0.8
Q4 2:48
Micah Alejado pass complete to Nick Cenacle for 4 yds to the CSU 35
-0.5
Q4 2:23
Cam Barfield run for 35 yds for a TD (Kansei Matsuzawa KICK)
-3.3
Q4 2:11
Kansei Matsuzawa kickoff for 56 yds , Lloyd Avant return for 66 yds to the CSU -1 Colorado State Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the CSU 18
+3.7
Q4 2:01
Jackson Brousseau pass complete to Lavon Brown for 8 yds to the CSU 26
-3.5
Q4 2:00
Timeout Colorado State, clock 02:00
0.0
Q4 1:52
Timeout Colorado State, clock 01:52
-0.4
Q4 1:51
Jackson Brousseau sacked by De'Jon Benton for a loss of 4 yards to the CSU 22
0.0
Q4 1:46
Jackson Brousseau pass complete to Lavon Brown for 16 yds to the CSU 38 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q4 1:30
Jackson Brousseau pass incomplete to Javion Kinnard
+0.2
Q4 1:29
Jackson Brousseau pass incomplete to Armani Winfield
0.0
Q4 1:23
Timeout Colorado State, clock 01:23
-2.0
Q4 1:22
Jackson Brousseau sacked by Tariq Jones for a loss of 5 yards to the CSU 33
0.0
Q4 1:17
Jackson Brousseau sacked by Jackie Johnson III for a loss of 6 yards to the CSU 27
0.0
Q4 1:15
M. Alejado takes a knee
+0.6
Q4 0:00
M. Alejado takes a knee
+0.2
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 5:54
Micah Alejado pass complete to Jackson Harris for 75 yds for a TD (Kansei Matsuzawa KICK)
-24.4
PUNT · Q1 0:00
Billy Gowers punt for 67 yds , Javion Kinnard returns for 91 yds for a TD (Isaiah Hankins KICK)
+16.6
TD · Q1 8:38
Micah Alejado pass complete to Nick Cenacle for 17 yds for a TD (Kansei Matsuzawa KICK)
-15.2