Try the model
NMSU

New Mexico State 34 at Hawai'i 48

HAW
2021 · Week 8 · Oct 23, 2021 · Aloha Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · HAW
modelHAW aheadNMSU aheadconfidence bandkey playHAW scoreNMSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDTDTDTDFGTDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of GameTD+10.4HAW 98.4%Dedrick Parson run for 3 yds for a TD(Matthew Shipley KICK)AWAY 34 - HOME 48 · Q4 4:16
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 4:16 · Dedrick Parson run for 3 yds for a TD (Matthew Shipley KICK)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+32.0+16.00−16.0−32.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 177Pregame prior+2.5Home team on offense+29.8Score differential+11.3Garbage-time factor+13.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+10.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+6.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 8:01: Jonah Johnson run for 1 yd for a TD (Ethan Albertson KICK) — NMSU win probability +12.0 pts (now 30%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  2. TD · Q3 1:30: Juwaun Price run for 46 yds for a TD (Ethan Albertson KICK) — NMSU win probability +22.0 pts (now 44%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 1:18: Calvin Turner Jr. run for 75 yds for a TD (Matthew Shipley KICK) — HAW win probability +23.8 pts (now 85%) (top driver: HAW has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 12:06: Jonah Johnson pass intercepted for a TD Darius Muasau return for 75 yds for a TD (Matthew Shipley KICK) — HAW win probability +12.8 pts (now 90%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 7:48: Jonah Johnson run for 7 yds for a TD (Ethan Albertson KICK) — NMSU win probability +15.0 pts (now 23%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
HAW made the numbers' call on 4 of 4NMSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 15:00NMSU 4th & 6 at NMSU 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.5%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:37HAW 4th & 9 at NMSU 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 87.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.3%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    87.3%
    68% to make
    Punt
    86.9%−0.4
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:37NMSU 4th & 5 at NMSU 45, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.5%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.5%
    average punt
  4. Q1 8:52HAW 4th & 11 at HAW 7, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.6%−0.2
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.8%
    average punt
  5. Q1 4:41NMSU 4th & 6 at HAW 9, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 14.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.1%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    14.1%
    89% to make
    Punt
    13.0%−1.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:38NMSU 4th & 1 at NMSU 34, down 14
    Close callPunted · 11.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.1%−0.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:57HAW 4th & 7 at HAW 29, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.7%−0.3
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.1%
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:05NMSU 4th & 13 at NMSU 26, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.5%−0.7
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.2%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:34NMSU 4th & 4 at HAW 26, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 10.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.0%−0.3
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    10.3%
    64% to make
    Punt
    8.5%−1.8
    average punt
  10. Q3 4:27HAW 4th & 6 at NMSU 10, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 80.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.4%−0.3
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    79.6%
    88% to make
    Punt
    72.2%−7.4
    average punt
  11. Q4 12:06NMSU 4th & 1 at HAW 42, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    4.6%−2.7
    30% to make
    Punt
    4.9%−2.4
    average punt
  12. Q4 4:16NMSU 4th & 10 at HAW 40, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 4.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.6%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    3.6%
    34% to make
    Punt
    3.2%−0.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
HAW made the numbers' call on 4 of 6NMSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 1:12HAW Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 13:38HAW Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 6:56HAW Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 5:05NMSU Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    9.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    9.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 8:01NMSU Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    20.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    20.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 1:30NMSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 1:18HAW Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 12:06HAW Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.9%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.0%
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 7:48NMSU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    10.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 4:16HAW Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.1%−0.4
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.5%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NMSUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0019% → 19%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
81.5%
Juwaun Price run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 30Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+3
81.5%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Andre Bodison for 3 yds to the NMxSt 33Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
-4
81.5%
Juwaun Price run for a loss of 4 yards to the NMxSt 29Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+7
81.5%
Josh Carlson punt for 44 yds , Calvin Turner Jr. returns for 7 yds to the Hawa 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 2FG
7 plays · 42 yds · 2:3781% → 81%
Q1 13:14
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+17
81.1%
Dedrick Parson run for 17 yds to the NMxSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:14
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+12
81.2%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Nick Mardner for 12 yds to the NMxSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:14
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+12
81.2%
Dedrick Parson run for 12 yds to the NMxSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:14
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-1
81.2%
Dedrick Parson run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 26Similar
Q1 13:14
2ND & 11
OPP 26
+8
81.2%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Jared Smart for 8 yds to the NMxSt 18Similar
Q1 13:14
3RD & 3
OPP 18
-6
81.2%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Aaron Cephus for a loss of 6 yards to the NMxSt 24Similar
Q1 10:37
4TH & 9
OPP 24
+41
80.7%
Matthew Shipley 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 0:0019% → 19%
Q1 10:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
80.6%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Andre Bodison for 15 yds to the NMxSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:37
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
80.5%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Cole Harrity for 4 yds to the NMxSt 44Similar
Q1 10:37
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+1
80.4%
Jonah Johnson run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 45Similar
Q1 10:37
3RD & 5
OWN 45
0
80.4%
Jonah Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:37
4TH & 5
OWN 45
0
80.7%
Josh Carlson punt for 47 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:0080% → 80%
Q1 8:52
1ST & 10
OWN 8
-1
80.1%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Calvin Turner Jr. for a loss of 1 yard to the Hawa 7Similar
Q1 8:52
2ND & 11
OWN 7
0
80.1%
Brayden Schager pass incomplete to Calvin Turner Jr.Similar
Q1 8:52
3RD & 11
OWN 7
0
79.9%
Brayden Schager pass incomplete to Calvin Turner Jr., broken up by Caleb MillsSimilar
Q1 8:52
4TH & 11
OWN 7
0
79.8%
Matthew Shipley punt for 33 yds, downed at the Hawa 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 5FG
14 plays · 31 yds · 3:2720% → 22%
Q1 8:08
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+1
79.7%
Juwaun Price run for 1 yd to the Hawa 39Similar
Q1 8:08
2ND & 9
OPP 39
0
79.7%
Jonah Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:08
3RD & 9
OPP 39
0
79.8%
Jonah Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:08
4TH & 9
OPP 39
+15
80.2%
HAWAII Penalty, Defensive pass interference (15 Yards) to the Hawa 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:08
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+4
79.5%
Juwaun Price run for 4 yds to the Hawa 20Similar
Q1 8:08
2ND & 6
OPP 20
0
79.5%
Jonah Johnson pass incomplete to Thomaz Whitford, broken up by Isaiah TufagaSimilar
Q1 8:08
3RD & 6
OPP 20
-5
79.7%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, false start (Doro Omerhi) to the Hawa 25Similar
Q1 8:08
3RD & 11
OPP 25
+5
79.8%
HAWAII Penalty, substitution infraction (5 Yards) to the Hawa 20Similar
Q1 5:56
3RD & 6
OPP 20
+7
78.9%
Jonah Johnson run for 7 yds to the Hawa 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:56
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
78.6%
Jonah Johnson pass incomplete to Isaiah Garcia-Castaneda, broken up by Cortez DavisSimilar
Q1 5:56
2ND & 10
OPP 13
0
78.6%
Jonah Johnson pass incomplete to Cole Harrity, broken up by Hugh Nelson IISimilar
Q1 5:56
3RD & 10
OPP 13
+4
79.0%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Juwaun Price for 4 yds to the Hawa 9Similar
Q1 4:41
4TH & 6
OPP 9
+27
78.0%
Ethan Albertson 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 6TD
11 plays · 79 yds · 3:2478% → 82%
Q1 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+11
78.3%
Calvin Turner Jr. run for 11 yds to the Hawa 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-1
78.4%
Calvin Turner Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the Hawa 31Similar
Q1 4:36
2ND & 11
OWN 31
+6
78.3%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Jared Smart for 6 yds Jared Smart fumbled, recovered by HawaSimilar
Q1 4:36
3RD & 5
OWN 37
+6
78.3%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, Defensive offside (Nick Giacolone) to the Hawa 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+12
79.0%
Brayden Schager run for 12 yds to the NMxSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:36
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
79.2%
Dedrick Parson run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 41Similar
Q1 4:36
2ND & 6
OPP 41
+10
79.2%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Nick Mardner for 10 yds to the NMxSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:36
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+10
79.4%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Dedrick Parson for 10 yds to the NMxSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:36
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+12
79.4%
Dedrick Parson run for 12 yds to the NMxSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
81.6%
Dedrick Parson run for 9 yds for a TD (Matthew Shipley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 7INT TD
9 plays · 51 yds · 2:3420% → 18%
Q1 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+25
80.4%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Isaiah Garcia-Castaneda for 25 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:12
1ST & 10
50
0
79.4%
Jonah Johnson pass incomplete to Isaiah Garcia-Castaneda, broken up by Cortez DavisSimilar
Q1 1:12
2ND & 10
50
+11
79.7%
Juwaun Price run for 11 yds to the Hawa 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:12
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
79.4%
Jonah Johnson pass incomplete to Michael Bowe Jr.Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+9
79.2%
Juwaun Price run for 9 yds to the Hawa 30Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 30
+6
79.1%
Jonah Johnson run for 6 yds to the Hawa 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
78.5%
Jonah Johnson pass incomplete to Cole HarritySimilar
Q2 13:38
2ND & 10
OPP 24
-79
82.5%
Jonah Johnson pass intercepted for a TD Khoury Bethley return for 79 yds for a TD (Matthew Shipley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0016% → 17%
Q2 13:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
83.6%
Juwaun Price run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 27Similar
Q2 13:38
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
83.5%
Jonah Johnson pass incomplete to Isaiah Garcia-Castaneda, broken up by Cortez DavisSimilar
Q2 13:38
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+7
83.9%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Lawrence Dixon for 7 yds to the NMxSt 34Similar
Q2 13:38
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
83.5%
Josh Carlson punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 9TD
12 plays · 74 yds · 5:1385% → 93%
Q2 12:09
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+1
84.7%
Dedrick Parson run for 1 yd to the Hawa 27Similar
Q2 12:09
2ND & 9
OWN 27
+10
84.6%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Nick Mardner for 10 yds to the Hawa 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:09
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
85.0%
Calvin Turner Jr. run for 3 yds to the Hawa 40Similar
Q2 12:09
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+16
85.3%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Dedrick Parson for 16 yds to the NMxSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:09
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-2
85.5%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Calvin Turner Jr. for a loss of 2 yards to the NMxSt 46Similar
Q2 12:09
2ND & 12
OPP 46
+13
85.4%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Dedrick Parson for 13 yds to the NMxSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:09
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+2
85.5%
Dedrick Parson run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 31Similar
Q2 12:09
2ND & 8
OPP 31
+7
85.5%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Tamatoa Mokiao-Atimalala for 7 yds to the NMxSt 24Similar
Q2 12:09
3RD & 1
OPP 24
+7
85.2%
Dedrick Parson run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:09
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+5
85.5%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Caleb Phillips for 5 yds Caleb Phillips fumbled, forced by Chris Ojoh, recovered by Hawa Tamatoa Mokiao-AtimalalaSimilar
Q2 12:09
2ND & 5
OPP 12
+11
85.5%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Dedrick Parson for 11 yds to the NMxSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
93.3%
Dedrick Parson run for 1 yd for a TD (Matthew Shipley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 10TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:518% → 16%
Q2 6:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
91.6%
Jonah Johnson pass incomplete to Juwaun PriceSimilar
Q2 6:56
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+10
91.8%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Jared Wyatt for 10 yds to the NMxSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:56
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
91.2%
Alex Escobar run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 37Similar
Q2 6:56
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+7
91.3%
Jonah Johnson run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 44Similar
Q2 5:05
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+56
83.9%
Juwaun Price run for 56 yds for a TD (Ethan Albertson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0085% → 84%
Q2 4:57
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
85.0%
Dedrick Parson run for 5 yds to the Hawa 31Similar
Q2 4:57
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+2
85.1%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Dedrick Parson for 2 yds to the Hawa 33Similar
Q2 4:57
3RD & 3
OWN 33
-4
84.7%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Tamatoa Mokiao-Atimalala for a loss of 4 yards to the Hawa 29Similar
Q2 4:57
4TH & 7
OWN 29
0
84.0%
Matthew Shipley punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Lawrence Dixon at the NMxSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:0015% → 14%
Q2 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
84.9%
Jonah Johnson pass incomplete to Isaiah Garcia-CastanedaSimilar
Q2 3:05
2ND & 10
OWN 29
-3
85.2%
Jonah Johnson run for a loss of 3 yards to the NMxSt 26Similar
Q2 3:05
3RD & 13
OWN 26
0
85.6%
Jonah Johnson pass incomplete to Isaiah Garcia-CastanedaSimilar
Q2 3:05
4TH & 13
OWN 26
+2
85.8%
Josh Carlson punt for 34 yds , Koali Nishigaya returns for 2 yds to the Hawa 42 Koali Nishigaya fumbled, recovered by NMxSt Austin ReevesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 13FG
8 plays · 16 yds · 1:3416% → 17%
Q2 2:08
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
84.2%
Juwaun Price run for 2 yds to the Hawa 40Similar
Q2 2:08
2ND & 8
OPP 40
+5
84.3%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Juwaun Price for 5 yds to the Hawa 35Similar
Q2 2:08
3RD & 3
OPP 35
+3
84.0%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Isaiah Garcia-Castaneda for 3 yds to the Hawa 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:08
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
83.7%
Jonah Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:08
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+6
83.8%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Cole Harrity for 6 yds to the Hawa 26Similar
Q2 2:08
3RD & 4
OPP 26
0
84.1%
Jonah Johnson pass incomplete to Andre BodisonSimilar
Q2 0:34
4TH & 4
OPP 26
+44
83.3%
Ethan Albertson 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 14END OF HALF
2 plays · 5 yds · 0:0085% → 85%
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
84.7%
Dedrick Parson run for 5 yds to the Hawa 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 15FUMBLE
10 plays · 25 yds · 0:0085% → 86%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
85.4%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Dedrick Parson for 2 yds to the Hawa 27Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-5
85.3%
HAWAII Penalty, false start (Kohl Levao) to the Hawa 22Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 13
OWN 22
0
85.2%
Dedrick Parson run for no gain to the Hawa 22Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+26
84.6%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Jared Smart for 26 yds to the Hawa 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
86.2%
Dedrick Parson run for 15 yds to the HAWAII 37 HAWAII Penalty, Offensive holding (Nick Mardner) to the NMxSt 47Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 5
OPP 47
+2
86.3%
Dedrick Parson run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 45Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 45
+5
86.3%
Brayden Schager run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
86.3%
Dedrick Parson run for no gain to the NMxSt 40Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 40
-10
86.2%
Brayden Schager sacked by Chris Ojoh for a loss of 10 yards to the 50 yard line Brayden Schager fumbled, recovered by NMxSt Michael Bowe Jr. , return for 0 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 16TD
10 plays · 50 yds · 3:2617% → 30%
Q3 11:27
1ST & 10
50
+3
83.4%
Juwaun Price run for 3 yds to the Hawa 47Similar
Q3 11:27
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+15
83.5%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Isaiah Garcia-Castaneda for 15 yds to the Hawa 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:27
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
82.7%
Jonah Johnson pass incomplete to Isaiah Garcia-CastanedaSimilar
Q3 11:27
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+10
82.7%
Jonah Johnson run for 10 yds to the Hawa 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:27
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
82.3%
Jonah Johnson pass incomplete to Thomaz WhitfordSimilar
Q3 11:27
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+9
82.7%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Isaiah Garcia-Castaneda for 9 yds to the Hawa 13Similar
Q3 11:27
3RD & 1
OPP 13
+2
83.2%
Juwaun Price run for 2 yds to the Hawa 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:27
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+10
82.3%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Andre Bodison for 10 yds to the Hawa 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
82.4%
Jonah Johnson pass incomplete to Thomaz WhitfordSimilar
Q3 8:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
70.4%
Jonah Johnson run for 1 yd for a TD (Ethan Albertson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 17FG
14 plays · 67 yds · 3:2577% → 83%
Q3 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+11
76.6%
Dedrick Parson run for 11 yds to the Hawa 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+21
76.9%
Dedrick Parson run for 21 yds to the NMxSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:52
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
79.1%
Dedrick Parson run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 39Similar
Q3 7:52
2ND & 4
OPP 39
+4
79.1%
Dedrick Parson run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:52
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
79.8%
Nasjzae Bryant run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 33Similar
Q3 7:52
2ND & 8
OPP 33
+6
79.8%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Calvin Turner Jr. for 6 yds to the NMxSt 27Similar
Q3 7:52
3RD & 2
OPP 27
+13
78.7%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Koali Nishigaya for 13 yds to the NMxSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:52
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-5
79.8%
HAWAII Penalty, false start (Gene Pryor) to the NMxSt 19Similar
Q3 7:52
1ST & 15
OPP 19
0
79.5%
Brayden Schager pass incomplete to Jared SmartSimilar
Q3 7:52
2ND & 15
OPP 19
+9
79.2%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Calvin Turner Jr. for 9 yds to the NMxSt 10Similar
Q3 4:36
3RD & 6
OPP 10
0
78.1%
Brayden Schager pass incomplete to Calvin Turner Jr.Similar
Q3 4:27
4TH & 6
OPP 10
+27
82.6%
Matthew Shipley 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 18TD
8 plays · 85 yds · 2:5320% → 44%
Q3 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+9
79.8%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Jared Wyatt for 9 yds to the NMxSt 24Similar
Q3 4:23
2ND & 1
OWN 24
+8
78.4%
Alex Escobar run for 8 yds to the NMxSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
78.6%
Jonah Johnson run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 34Similar
Q3 4:23
2ND & 8
OWN 34
+9
78.7%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Devlin Kirklin for 9 yds to the NMxSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
77.9%
Jonah Johnson pass incomplete to Isaiah Garcia-CastanedaSimilar
Q3 4:23
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+11
78.2%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Terrell Warner for 11 yds to the Hawa 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+46
56.2%
Juwaun Price run for 46 yds for a TD (Ethan Albertson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 19TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:0085% → 85%
Q3 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
84.8%
Calvin Turner Jr. run for 75 yds for a TD (Matthew Shipley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 20INT TD
11 plays · 62 yds · 4:0719% → 10%
Q3 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+8
81.1%
Juwaun Price run for 8 yds to the NMxSt 13Similar
Q3 1:13
2ND & 2
OWN 13
+12
80.9%
Jonah Johnson run for 12 yds to the NMxSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
80.6%
Jonah Johnson run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 30Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
79.9%
Jonah Johnson pass incomplete to Cole HarritySimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+8
80.9%
Jonah Johnson run for 8 yds to the NMxSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
79.3%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Andre Bodison for 6 yds to the NMxSt 44Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 44
+3
78.1%
Juwaun Price run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 47Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 47
+4
78.1%
Juwaun Price run for 4 yds to the Hawa 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+16
77.2%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Isaiah Garcia-Castaneda for 16 yds to the Hawa 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:06
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-75
90.0%
Jonah Johnson pass intercepted for a TD Darius Muasau return for 75 yds for a TD (Matthew Shipley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 21TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 4:188% → 23%
Q4 12:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
92.2%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Terrell Warner for 8 yds to the NMxSt 33Similar
Q4 12:06
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+4
91.2%
Alex Escobar run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:06
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+12
91.4%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Devlin Kirklin for 12 yds to the NMxSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:06
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
90.9%
Jonah Johnson pass incomplete to Andre BodisonSimilar
Q4 12:06
2ND & 10
OWN 49
0
90.8%
Jonah Johnson pass incomplete to Isaiah Garcia-CastanedaSimilar
Q4 12:06
3RD & 10
OWN 49
+9
91.1%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Devlin Kirklin for 9 yds to the Hawa 42Similar
Q4 12:06
4TH & 1
OPP 42
+21
91.1%
Jonah Johnson run for 21 yds to the Hawa 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:27
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
90.5%
Jonah Johnson pass incomplete to Isaiah Garcia-CastanedaSimilar
Q4 9:27
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+4
90.9%
Juwaun Price run for 4 yds to the Hawa 17Similar
Q4 9:27
3RD & 6
OPP 17
0
91.1%
Jonah Johnson run for no gain to the Hawa 17Similar
Q4 9:27
4TH & 6
OPP 17
+10
92.0%
HAWAII Penalty, Defensive holding (Quentin Frazier) to the Hawa 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
77.0%
Jonah Johnson run for 7 yds for a TD (Ethan Albertson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 22TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:3288% → 98%
Q4 7:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
87.7%
Calvin Turner Jr. run for 5 yds to the Hawa 30Similar
Q4 7:48
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+1
87.9%
Calvin Turner Jr. run for 1 yd to the Hawa 31Similar
Q4 7:48
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+18
87.3%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Calvin Turner Jr. for 18 yds to the Hawa 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:48
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-6
89.5%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Caleb Phillips for a loss of 6 yards to the Hawa 43Similar
Q4 7:48
2ND & 16
OWN 43
+5
88.6%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, Defensive offside (Michael Bowe Jr.) to the Hawa 48Similar
Q4 7:48
2ND & 11
OWN 48
+5
89.0%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Jared Smart for 5 yds to the NMxSt 47Similar
Q4 7:48
3RD & 6
OPP 47
-5
88.9%
HAWAII Penalty, false start (Nick Mardner) to the Hawa 48Similar
Q4 7:48
3RD & 11
OWN 48
+49
88.1%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Nick Mardner for 49 yds to the NMxSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
98.4%
Dedrick Parson run for 3 yds for a TD (Matthew Shipley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 23DOWNS
10 plays · 35 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q4 4:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
95.4%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Thomaz Whitford for 8 yds to the NMxSt 33Similar
Q4 4:16
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+3
94.8%
Juwaun Price run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:16
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+14
95.0%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Isaiah Garcia-Castaneda for 14 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:16
1ST & 10
50
0
94.7%
Jonah Johnson pass incomplete to Alex EscobarSimilar
Q4 4:16
2ND & 10
50
+10
94.6%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Andre Bodison for 10 yds to the Hawa 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:16
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
94.5%
Jonah Johnson pass incomplete to Terrell WarnerSimilar
Q4 4:16
2ND & 10
OPP 40
0
94.5%
Jonah Johnson pass incomplete to Andre BodisonSimilar
Q4 4:16
3RD & 10
OPP 40
0
94.6%
Jonah Johnson pass incomplete to Cole HarritySimilar
Q4 4:16
4TH & 10
OPP 40
0
94.9%
Jonah Johnson pass incomplete to Isaiah Garcia-Castaneda, broken up by Hugh Nelson IISimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 24END OF GAME
8 plays · 24 yds · 1:3299% → 99%
Q4 2:02
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+8
98.9%
Dedrick Parson run for 8 yds to the Hawa 48Similar
Q4 2:02
2ND & 2
OWN 48
+7
98.9%
Dedrick Parson run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:39
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
99.2%
Dedrick Parson run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 39Similar
Q4 0:35
2ND & 4
OPP 39
+4
99.3%
Dedrick Parson run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-1
99.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 1:18
Calvin Turner Jr. run for 75 yds for a TD (Matthew Shipley KICK)
+23.8
TD · Q3 1:30
Juwaun Price run for 46 yds for a TD (Ethan Albertson KICK)
-22
TD · Q4 7:48
Jonah Johnson run for 7 yds for a TD (Ethan Albertson KICK)
-15
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com