Try the model
SDSU

San Diego State 17 at Hawai'i 10

HAW
2021 · Week 10 · Nov 6, 2021 · Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · HAW
modelHAW aheadSDSU aheadconfidence bandkey playHAW scoreSDSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:11 · Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Dedrick Parson for 5 yds to the SDSt 18
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+34.0+17.00−17.0−34.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 2:21: Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Calvin Turner Jr. for 19 yds for a TD, (Matthew Shipley KICK) — HAW win probability +6.3 pts (now 35%) (top driver: HAW has the ball).
  2. FG · Q4 7:41: Matt Araiza 39 yd FG GOOD — SDSU win probability +7.7 pts (now 86%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  3. FG · Q4 3:00: Matthew Shipley 22 yd FG GOOD — HAW win probability +7.6 pts (now 24%) (top driver: HAW has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 2:52: Greg Bell run for 4 yds to the SDSt 16 — SDSU win probability +9.7 pts (now 88%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 1:11: TEAM pass incomplete — HAW win probability +6.3 pts (now 19%) (top driver: HAW has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
HAW made the numbers' call on 6 of 8SDSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
  1. Q1 15:00SDSU 4th & 7 at HAW 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.5%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    66.4%−0.1
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    66.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:47HAW 4th & 3 at HAW 9, tied
    Close callPunted · 34.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.3%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:27HAW 4th & 15 at HAW 31, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.1%−0.6
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.8%
    average punt
  4. Q2 9:43SDSU 4th & 2 at HAW 13, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 60.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    60.4%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    59.8%−0.6
    85% to make
    Punt
    56.3%−4.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:11SDSU 4th & 3 at HAW 36, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsKicked a field goal · 68.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.0%
    53% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    67.7%−1.3
    42% to make
    Punt
    67.4%−1.6
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:11HAW 4th & 13 at HAW 48, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.0%−1.2
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.2%
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:14SDSU 4th & 9 at SDSU 21, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.1%−1.5
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.6%
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:00HAW 4th & 5 at HAW 36, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.1%−0.8
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.8%
    average punt
  9. Q3 15:00HAW 4th & 13 at HAW 22, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.2%−3.3
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.5%
    average punt
  10. Q3 13:31SDSU 4th & 4 at HAW 42, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 71.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    69.5%−2.1
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    70.4%−1.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:56SDSU 4th & 4 at midfield, up 7
    Close callPunted · 71.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.4%−0.9
    average punt
  12. Q3 7:22HAW 4th & 15 at HAW 47, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.3%−2.8
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.0%
    average punt
  13. Q4 7:41SDSU 4th & 19 at HAW 22, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 79.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.7%−4.3
    10% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    80.0%
    72% to make
    Punt
    70.0%−10.0
    average punt
  14. Q4 3:00HAW 4th & 5 at SDSU 5, down 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.5 ptsKicked a field goal · 8.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.3%
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    9.8%−2.5
    92% to make
    Punt
    5.6%−6.7
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:16SDSU 4th & 11 at SDSU 22, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.3%−1.8
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.0%
    average punt
  16. Q4 1:11HAW 4th & 5 at SDSU 35, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 17.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.2%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    11.3%−4.8
    45% to make
    Punt
    10.0%−6.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
HAW made the numbers' call on 1 of 1SDSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 6:27SDSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:21HAW Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 9:43SDSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SDSUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0073% → 73%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+6
26.8%
Lucas Johnson pass complete to Daniel Bellinger for 6 yds to the Hawa 43Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 43
+1
26.8%
Greg Bell run for 1 yd to the Hawa 42Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 42
-4
26.8%
Greg Bell run for a loss of 4 yards to the Hawa 46Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 7
OPP 46
0
26.8%
Matt Araiza punt for 44 yds, downed at the Hawa 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0028% → 28%
Q1 12:47
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+3
27.9%
Dedrick Parson run for 3 yds to the Hawa 5Similar
Q1 12:47
2ND & 7
OWN 5
0
27.8%
Chevan Cordeiro pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:47
3RD & 7
OWN 5
+4
27.7%
Chevan Cordeiro run for 4 yds to the Hawa 9Similar
Q1 12:47
4TH & 3
OWN 9
0
27.7%
Matthew Shipley punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Jordan Byrd at the Hawa 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 3TD
9 plays · 47 yds · 4:5972% → 73%
Q1 11:26
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+8
28.1%
Lucas Johnson pass complete to Tyrell Shavers for 8 yds to the Hawa 39Similar
Q1 11:26
2ND & 2
OPP 39
+11
28.1%
Greg Bell run for 11 yds to the Hawa 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:26
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-5
28.0%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, false start (Jordan Byrd) to the Hawa 33Similar
Q1 11:26
1ST & 15
OPP 33
+2
28.1%
Lucas Johnson run for 2 yds to the Hawa 31Similar
Q1 11:26
2ND & 13
OPP 31
+11
28.1%
Lucas Johnson pass complete to Kaegun Williams for 11 yds to the Hawa 20Similar
Q1 11:26
3RD & 2
OPP 20
+8
28.1%
Lucas Johnson run for 8 yds to the Hawa 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:26
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+7
28.0%
Greg Bell run for 7 yds to the Hawa 5Similar
Q1 11:26
2ND & 3
OPP 5
0
28.0%
Greg Bell run for no gain to the Hawa 5Similar
Q1 6:27
3RD & 3
OPP 5
+5
27.2%
Greg Bell run for 5 yds for a TD, (Matt Araiza KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 6 yds · 0:0028% → 28%
Q1 6:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
28.0%
Dedrick Parson run for 5 yds to the Hawa 30Similar
Q1 6:27
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+6
28.2%
Dedrick Parson run for 6 yds to the Hawa 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:27
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
28.2%
Dedrick Parson run for 2 yds to the Hawa 38Similar
Q1 6:27
2ND & 8
OWN 38
-7
28.3%
Chevan Cordeiro sacked by Jonah Tavai for a loss of 7 yards to the Hawa 31Similar
Q1 6:27
3RD & 15
OWN 31
0
27.7%
Chevan Cordeiro pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:27
4TH & 15
OWN 31
0
27.6%
Matthew Shipley punt for 34 yds, downed at the SDSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 5FUMBLE
4 plays · -16 yds · 0:0072% → 72%
Q1 3:48
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-10
27.8%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the SDSt 25Similar
Q1 3:48
1ST & 20
OWN 25
+5
28.2%
HAWAII Penalty, Defensive offside (Blessman Ta'ala) to the SDSt 30Similar
Q1 3:48
1ST & 15
OWN 30
+1
28.2%
Greg Bell run for 1 yd to the SDSt 31Similar
Q1 3:48
2ND & 14
OWN 31
-12
28.2%
Lucas Johnson sacked by Darius Muasau for a loss of 12 yards to the SDSt 19 Lucas Johnson fumbled, recovered by Hawa Isaiah Tufaga , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 6TD
1 play · 19 yds · 0:0035% → 35%
Q1 2:21
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
34.5%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Calvin Turner Jr. for 19 yds for a TD, (Matthew Shipley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 7TD
18 plays · 82 yds · 7:3368% → 72%
Q1 2:16
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+7
32.3%
Greg Bell run for 7 yds to the SDSt 25Similar
Q1 2:16
2ND & 3
OWN 25
+7
32.0%
Lucas Johnson pass complete to Daniel Bellinger for 7 yds to the SDSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:16
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
32.0%
Greg Bell run for 3 yds to the SDSt 35Similar
Q1 2:16
2ND & 7
OWN 35
+9
31.9%
Lucas Johnson pass complete to Daniel Bellinger for 9 yds to the SDSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:16
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+11
31.4%
Lucas Johnson pass complete to Tyrell Shavers for 11 yds to the Hawa 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
31.9%
Greg Bell run for no gain to the Hawa 45Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+7
32.0%
Greg Bell run for 7 yds to the Hawa 38Similar
Q2 13:35
3RD & 3
OPP 38
+4
32.8%
Lucas Johnson run for 4 yds to the Hawa 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:35
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
32.3%
Lucas Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:35
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+1
32.3%
Chance Bell run for 1 yd to the Hawa 33Similar
Q2 13:35
3RD & 9
OPP 33
-5
32.9%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Hawa 38Similar
Q2 13:35
3RD & 14
OPP 38
+17
34.0%
Lucas Johnson run for 17 yds to the Hawa 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:35
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
32.2%
Greg Bell run for no gain to the Hawa 21Similar
Q2 13:35
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+5
32.3%
Lucas Johnson run for 5 yds to the Hawa 16Similar
Q2 13:35
3RD & 5
OPP 16
+3
32.8%
Greg Bell run for 3 yds to the Hawa 13Similar
Q2 9:43
4TH & 2
OPP 13
+13
28.4%
Jack Browning run for 13 yds for a TD, (Matt Araiza KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 8INT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0030% → 29%
Q2 9:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
29.6%
Dedrick Parson run for no gain to the Hawa 25Similar
Q2 9:43
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
29.5%
Chevan Cordeiro pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:43
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
28.9%
Chevan Cordeiro pass intercepted Trenton Thompson return for no gain to the Hawa 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 9MISSED FG
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:3772% → 73%
Q2 8:48
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
27.6%
Lucas Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:48
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+6
27.7%
Greg Bell run for 6 yds to the Hawa 37Similar
Q2 8:48
3RD & 4
OPP 37
+1
27.8%
Greg Bell run for 1 yd to the Hawa 36Similar
Q2 7:11
4TH & 3
OPP 36
+53
27.1%
Matt Araiza 53 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 10PUNT
9 plays · 12 yds · 0:0028% → 27%
Q2 7:11
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
28.4%
Calvin Turner Jr. run for 4 yds to the Hawa 40Similar
Q2 7:11
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+5
29.3%
Calvin Turner Jr. run for 5 yds to the Hawa 45Similar
Q2 7:11
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+6
29.3%
Calvin Turner Jr. run for 6 yds to the SDSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:11
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-15
30.0%
HAWAII Penalty, personal foul (-15 Yards) to the Hawa 36Similar
Q2 7:11
1ST & 25
OWN 36
-5
27.9%
HAWAII Penalty, delay of game (Chevan Cordeiro) to the Hawa 31Similar
Q2 7:11
1ST & 30
OWN 31
+14
27.8%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Nick Mardner for 14 yds to the Hawa 45Similar
Q2 7:11
2ND & 16
OWN 45
+3
28.3%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Calvin Turner Jr. for 3 yds to the Hawa 48Similar
Q2 7:11
3RD & 13
OWN 48
0
27.9%
Chevan Cordeiro pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:11
4TH & 13
OWN 48
0
27.3%
Matthew Shipley punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Jordan Byrd at the SDSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0073% → 71%
Q2 3:14
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
27.3%
Jordan Byrd run for 7 yds to the SDSt 27Similar
Q2 3:14
2ND & 3
OWN 27
-1
26.3%
Jordan Byrd run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 26Similar
Q2 3:14
3RD & 4
OWN 26
-5
27.2%
Kaegun Williams run for a loss of 5 yards to the SDSt 21Similar
Q2 3:14
4TH & 9
OWN 21
0
28.9%
Matt Araiza punt for 79 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 12PUNT
8 plays · 16 yds · 0:2228% → 28%
Q2 1:22
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
27.7%
Chevan Cordeiro pass incomplete to Dedrick ParsonSimilar
Q2 1:22
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+4
27.6%
Calvin Turner Jr. run for 4 yds to the Hawa 24Similar
Q2 1:00
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+7
27.9%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Dedrick Parson for 7 yds to the Hawa 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
29.0%
Dedrick Parson run for 5 yds to the Hawa 36Similar
Q2 1:00
2ND & 5
OWN 36
0
30.2%
Chevan Cordeiro pass incomplete to Dedrick ParsonSimilar
Q2 1:00
3RD & 5
OWN 36
0
28.7%
Chevan Cordeiro pass incomplete to Calvin Turner Jr.Similar
Q2 1:00
4TH & 5
OWN 36
0
28.3%
Matthew Shipley punt for 32 yds, downed at the SDSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 13END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0074% → 74%
Q2 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-1
26.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:0028% → 27%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
28.2%
Calvin Turner Jr. run for 1 yd to the Hawa 26Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
28.1%
Calvin Turner Jr. run for no gain to the Hawa 26Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-4
27.1%
Chevan Cordeiro sacked by Cameron Thomas for a loss of 4 yards to the Hawa 22Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 13
OWN 22
0
26.5%
Matthew Shipley punt for 26 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0076% → 74%
Q3 13:31
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
24.4%
Greg Bell run for 1 yd to the Hawa 47Similar
Q3 13:31
2ND & 9
OPP 47
+4
24.5%
Chance Bell run for 4 yds to the Hawa 43Similar
Q3 13:31
3RD & 5
OPP 43
-5
24.8%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, delay of game (Lucas Johnson) to the Hawa 48Similar
Q3 13:31
3RD & 10
OPP 48
+6
25.1%
Lucas Johnson run for 6 yds to the Hawa 42Similar
Q3 13:31
4TH & 4
OPP 42
0
25.9%
Matt Araiza punt for 42 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 16FUMBLE
6 plays · 49 yds · 0:0028% → 30%
Q3 10:56
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
28.0%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Jared Smart for 6 yds to the Hawa 26Similar
Q3 10:56
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+10
28.5%
Dedrick Parson run for 10 yds to the Hawa 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:56
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
28.9%
Chevan Cordeiro pass incomplete to Dedrick ParsonSimilar
Q3 10:56
2ND & 10
OWN 36
-1
28.6%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Calvin Turner Jr. for a loss of 1 yard to the Hawa 35Similar
Q3 10:56
3RD & 11
OWN 35
+26
27.0%
Chevan Cordeiro run for 11 yds to the Hawa 46 for a 1ST down SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, illegal block (Nick Mardner) to the Hawa 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:56
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+23
30.4%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Jared Smart for 23 yds Jared Smart fumbled, forced by Tayler Hawkins, recovered by SDSt C.J. Baskerville , return for 13 yds to the SDSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0075% → 74%
Q3 10:56
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
24.7%
Greg Bell run for 4 yds to the SDSt 48Similar
Q3 10:56
2ND & 6
OWN 48
+2
24.6%
Greg Bell run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 10:56
3RD & 4
50
0
24.7%
Lucas Johnson pass incomplete to Daniel BellingerSimilar
Q3 10:56
4TH & 4
50
0
25.8%
Matt Araiza punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Dedrick Parson at the Hawa 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 18PUNT
12 plays · 34 yds · 0:0028% → 27%
Q3 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+9
28.0%
Chevan Cordeiro run for 9 yds to the Hawa 22Similar
Q3 7:22
2ND & 1
OWN 22
+5
28.8%
Chevan Cordeiro run for 5 yds to the Hawa 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
28.6%
Dedrick Parson run for 3 yds to the Hawa 30Similar
Q3 7:22
2ND & 7
OWN 30
+14
28.8%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Dedrick Parson for 14 yds to the Hawa 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
30.7%
Calvin Turner Jr. run for no gain to the Hawa 44Similar
Q3 7:22
2ND & 10
OWN 44
-7
29.7%
Chevan Cordeiro sacked by Keshawn Banks for a loss of 7 yards to the Hawa 37Similar
Q3 7:22
3RD & 17
OWN 37
+15
27.3%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Cedarious Barfield) to the SDSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:22
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
32.0%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Calvin Turner Jr. for 4 yds to the SDSt 44Similar
Q3 7:22
2ND & 6
OPP 44
+4
32.2%
Chevan Cordeiro run for 4 yds to the SDSt 40Similar
Q3 7:22
3RD & 2
OPP 40
-10
31.9%
HAWAII Penalty, Offensive holding (Kohl Levao) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 7:22
3RD & 12
50
-3
29.1%
Chevan Cordeiro sacked by Jonah Tavai and Keshawn Banks for a loss of 3 yards to the Hawa 47Similar
Q3 7:22
4TH & 15
OWN 47
0
27.2%
Matthew Shipley punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Jordan Byrd at the SDSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 19FG
17 plays · 57 yds · 8:2675% → 86%
Q3 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
24.7%
Lucas Johnson pass incomplete to Jesse MatthewsSimilar
Q3 1:07
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+11
25.0%
Lucas Johnson pass complete to Daniel Bellinger for 11 yds to the SDSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-10
23.5%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, Offensive holding (Zachary Thomas) to the SDSt 22Similar
Q3 1:07
1ST & 20
OWN 22
+8
24.9%
Lucas Johnson pass complete to Daniel Bellinger for 8 yds to the SDSt 30Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 30
+8
24.2%
Greg Bell run for 8 yds to the SDSt 38Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 38
+6
22.2%
Lucas Johnson pass complete to Elijah Kothe for 6 yds to the SDSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
21.8%
Lucas Johnson run for 1 yd to the SDSt 45Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 45
+3
21.8%
Lucas Johnson pass complete to Greg Bell for 3 yds to the SDSt 48Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 48
+9
22.0%
Lucas Johnson pass complete to Tyrell Shavers for 9 yds to the Hawa 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+10
21.0%
Lucas Johnson pass complete to Elijah Kothe for 10 yds to the Hawa 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
20.5%
Greg Bell run for 5 yds to the Hawa 28Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 28
+15
20.3%
HAWAII Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Hugh Nelson II) to the Hawa 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-4
20.3%
Greg Bell run for a loss of 4 yards to the Hawa 17Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 14
OPP 17
-10
20.5%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, Offensive holding (Alama Uluave) to the Hawa 27Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 24
OPP 27
-2
20.7%
Lucas Johnson sacked by Isaiah Tufaga for a loss of 2 yards to the Hawa 29Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 26
OPP 29
+7
22.0%
Chance Bell run for 7 yds to the Hawa 22Similar
Q4 7:41
4TH & 19
OPP 22
+39
14.3%
Matt Araiza 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 20FG
16 plays · 70 yds · 4:4114% → 24%
Q4 7:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
13.5%
Dedrick Parson run for 5 yds to the Hawa 30Similar
Q4 7:41
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
14.0%
Chevan Cordeiro pass incomplete to Nick MardnerSimilar
Q4 7:41
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+14
13.1%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Zion Bowens for 14 yds to the Hawa 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:41
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+7
15.0%
Dedrick Parson run for 7 yds to the SDSt 49Similar
Q4 7:41
2ND & 3
OPP 49
+5
16.5%
Dedrick Parson run for 5 yds to the SDSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:41
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-2
16.3%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Calvin Turner Jr. for a loss of 2 yards to the SDSt 46Similar
Q4 7:41
2ND & 12
OPP 46
+3
15.3%
Calvin Turner Jr. run for 3 yds to the SDSt 43Similar
Q4 7:41
3RD & 9
OPP 43
+20
15.0%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Nick Mardner for 20 yds to the SDSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:41
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
17.9%
Calvin Turner Jr. run for no gain to the SDSt 23Similar
Q4 7:41
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+5
17.4%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Caleb Phillips for 5 yds to the SDSt 18Similar
Q4 7:41
3RD & 5
OPP 18
+14
16.6%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Calvin Turner Jr. for 14 yds to the SDSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-1
17.9%
Calvin Turner Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 5Similar
Q4 7:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
17.9%
Chevan Cordeiro pass incomplete to Zion BowensSimilar
Q4 7:41
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
16.6%
Chevan Cordeiro pass incomplete to Caleb Phillips, broken up by Michael ShawcroftSimilar
Q4 3:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+22
24.1%
Matthew Shipley 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 21PUNT
10 plays · 10 yds · 1:3688% → 94%
Q4 2:52
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+4
11.6%
Greg Bell run for 4 yds to the SDSt 16Similar
Q4 2:52
2ND & 6
OWN 16
+7
11.7%
Greg Bell run for 7 yds to the SDSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:52
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
11.5%
Greg Bell run for 2 yds to the SDSt 25 Greg Bell fumbled, forced by Solo Turner, recovered by SDSt Greg BellSimilar
Q4 1:25
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+1
5.9%
Jordan Byrd run for 1 yd to the SDSt 26Similar
Q4 1:22
3RD & 7
OWN 26
-4
6.2%
Jordan Byrd run for a loss of 4 yards to the SDSt 22Similar
Q4 1:16
4TH & 11
OWN 22
0
6.4%
Matt Araiza punt for 46 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Hawa 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 22END OF GAME
9 plays · 50 yds · 0:0011% → 14%
Q4 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+7
10.7%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Dedrick Parson for 7 yds to the Hawa 39Similar
Q4 1:11
2ND & 3
OWN 39
+21
12.5%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Zion Bowens for 6 yds to the SDSt 45 for a 1ST down SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, personal foul (Segun Olubi) to the SDSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:11
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
14.0%
Chevan Cordeiro pass incomplete to Nick MardnerSimilar
Q4 1:11
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+5
13.7%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Dedrick Parson for 5 yds to the SDSt 35Similar
Q4 1:11
3RD & 5
OPP 35
0
15.5%
Chevan Cordeiro pass incomplete to Caleb PhillipsSimilar
Q4 1:11
4TH & 5
OPP 35
+12
12.8%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Zion Bowens for 12 yds to the SDSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:11
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
19.1%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:11
2ND & 10
OPP 23
0
16.7%
Chevan Cordeiro pass incomplete to Caleb PhillipsSimilar
Q4 1:11
3RD & 10
OPP 23
+5
14.3%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Dedrick Parson for 5 yds to the SDSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-14.3
KEY PLAY · Q4 2:52
Greg Bell run for 4 yds to the SDSt 16
-9.7
FG · Q4 7:41
Matt Araiza 39 yd FG GOOD
-7.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com