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Win probability · HAW
modelHAW aheadWYO aheadconfidence bandkey playHAW scoreWYO score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 11:37 · Matthew Shipley 29 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 9:46: Andrew Peasley run for 35 yds for a TD, (John Hoyland KICK) — WYO win probability +5.6 pts (now 69%) (top driver: WYO has the ball).
- FG · Q3 2:08: Matthew Shipley 20 yd FG GOOD — HAW win probability +9.2 pts (now 48%) (top driver: HAW has the ball).
- TD · Q4 12:09: Dawaiian McNeely run for 61 yds for a TD, (John Hoyland KICK) — WYO win probability +21.8 pts (now 81%) (top driver: WYO has the ball).
- TD · Q4 4:12: Andrew Peasley run for 4 yds for a TD, (John Hoyland KICK) — WYO win probability +11.6 pts (now 97%) (top driver: WYO has the ball).
- TD · Q4 1:40: Brayden Schager pass complete to Zion Bowens for 20 yds for a TD, (Matthew Shipley KICK) — HAW win probability +22.1 pts (now 26%) (top driver: HAW has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
HAW made the numbers' call on 8 of 12WYO made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
- Q1 13:28HAW 4th & 9 at HAW 26, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 24.4% before the snapGo for it24.4%−0.130% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call24.5%average punt
- Q1 12:19WYO 4th & 3 at WYO 36, tiedClose callPunted · 74.9% before the snapGo for it74.9%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call74.9%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 12:19HAW 4th & 1 at WYO 24, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 25.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call25.2%71% to convertField goal25.1%−0.168% to makePunt24.7%−0.5average punt
- Q1 4:25WYO 4th & 20 at WYO 47, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.1% before the snapGo for it66.8%−0.610% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call67.3%average punt
- Q1 1:03HAW 4th & 7 at WYO 19, up 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 35.6% before the snapGo for it35.3%−0.335% to convertField goalTheir call35.6%77% to makePunt33.0%−2.6average punt
- Q2 11:37HAW 4th & 10 at WYO 11, up 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 39.8% before the snapGo for it39.0%−0.524% to convertField goalTheir call39.5%87% to makePunt35.7%−3.9average punt
- Q2 8:25HAW 4th & 11 at midfield, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.0% before the snapGo for it35.8%−0.526% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call36.3%average punt
- Q2 5:29HAW 4th & 5 at WYO 43, up 3Close callPunted · 40.3% before the snapGo for it40.2%42% to convertField goal38.9%−1.328% to makePuntTheir call39.3%−0.9average punt
- Q2 1:54WYO 4th & 3 at HAW 17, down 3Close callKicked a field goal · 60.3% before the snapGo for it59.8%51% to convertField goalTheir call59.0%−0.880% to makePunt53.2%−6.6average punt
- Q2 0:45HAW 4th & 7 at HAW 27, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 37.5% before the snapGo for it35.6%−1.736% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call37.3%average punt
- Q2 0:12WYO 4th & 2 at WYO 38, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 62.8% before the snapGo for it62.1%−0.557% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call62.6%average punt
- Q3 7:34WYO 4th & 17 at HAW 21, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 57.5% before the snapGo for it53.5%−3.813% to convertField goalTheir call57.3%74% to makePunt47.3%−10.0average punt
- Q3 2:08HAW 4th & 3 at WYO 3, down 3Numbers favored go for it by 2.4 ptsKicked a field goal · 39.9% before the snapGo for it40.9%44% to convertField goalTheir call38.5%−2.493% to makePunt25.3%−15.5average punt
- Q3 0:32WYO 4th & 5 at WYO 30, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 52.8% before the snapGo for it53.3%−1.041% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call54.2%average punt
- Q4 14:12HAW 4th & 1 at HAW 37, tiedNumbers favored go for it by 4.3 ptsPunted · 48.3% before the snapGo for it50.6%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call46.3%−4.3average punt
- Q4 9:20HAW 4th & 7 at WYO 42, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 24.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call23.7%37% to convertField goal21.5%−2.230% to makePunt22.4%−1.4average punt
- Q4 9:20HAW 4th & 7 at WYO 42, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 24.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call23.7%37% to convertField goal21.5%−2.230% to makePunt22.4%−1.4average punt
- Q4 4:12HAW 4th & 1 at WYO 30, down 14Close callWent for it · 4.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call5.0%−0.871% to convertField goal5.8%56% to makePunt3.7%−2.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
HAW made the numbers' call on 2 of 2WYO made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
- Q1 8:12HAW Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call29.0%97% to makeGo for two29.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 9:46WYO Touchdown, down 4 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call63.9%97% to makeGo for two63.8%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 12:09WYO Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call71.9%97% to makeGo for two71.5%−0.445% to convert
- Q4 4:12WYO Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call95.8%97% to makeGo for two95.1%−0.745% to convert
- Q4 1:40HAW Touchdown, down 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call9.0%97% to makeGo for two6.9%−2.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartHAWDrive 1PUNT5 plays · 1 yds · 1:2621% → 22%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-6
21.3%
Brayden Schager sacked by Braden Siders for a loss of 6 yards to the Hawa 19Similar
Q1 14:54
3RD & 16
OWN 19
+7
21.3%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Jordan Murray for 7 yds to the Hawa 26Similar
Q1 13:28
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
21.9%
Matthew Shipley punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Cameron Stone at the Wyom 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 2PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 1:0978% → 77%
Q1 12:19
4TH & 3
OWN 36
+16
22.6%
Clayton Stewart punt for 47 yds , Dior Scott returns for 16 yds to the Hawa 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 3TD13 plays · 67 yds · 4:0723% → 27%
Q1 12:19
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+10
22.7%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Tamatoa Mokiao-Atimalala for 10 yds to the Hawa 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:19
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+9
22.8%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Tamatoa Mokiao-Atimalala for 9 yds to the Wyom 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:19
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
22.9%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Jordan Murray for 3 yds to the Wyom 43Similar
Q1 12:19
2ND & 7
OPP 43
+4
22.9%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Caleb Phillips for 4 yds to the Wyom 39Similar
Q1 12:19
3RD & 10
OPP 33
+9
22.8%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Zion Bowens for 9 yds to the Wyom 24Similar
Q1 8:12
3RD & 10
OPP 22
+22
27.2%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Dedrick Parson for 22 yds for a TD, (Matthew Shipley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 4PUNT8 plays · 22 yds · 3:4773% → 70%
Q1 8:12
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+2
26.6%
Andrew Peasley pass complete to D.Q. James for 2 yds to the Wyom 30Similar
Q1 8:12
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+27
26.7%
Andrew Peasley pass complete to Treyton Welch for 12 yds to the Hawa 42 for a 1ST down HAWAII Penalty, Personal Foul (Andrew Choi) to the Hawa 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:12
3RD & 7
OPP 40
-13
26.2%
Andrew Peasley sacked by Peter Manuma for a loss of 13 yards to the Wyom 47 Andrew Peasley fumbled, recovered by Wyom , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q1 4:25
4TH & 20
OWN 47
0
30.4%
Clayton Stewart punt for 38 yds , Dior Scott returns for no gain to the Hawa 14 Dior Scott fumbled, recovered by Wyom Dior ScottSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 5MISSED FG13 plays · 67 yds · 3:2230% → 33%
Q1 4:25
3RD & 5
OWN 19
+20
29.8%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Dedrick Parson for 20 yds to the Hawa 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:25
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-5
31.0%
PENALTY Hawaii False Start 5 yards from Wyo49 to Hawaii46. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:13
2ND & 15
OWN 46
+15
32.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun Schager,Brayden pass intercepted by McEvoy,Tommy at Wyo50 McEvoy,Tommy return 50 yards to the Hawaii00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 02:13 PENALTY Wyo Personal Foul (DeMarzo,Cole) 15 yards from Hawaii46 to Wyo39, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 6INT6 plays · -1 yds · 2:2467% → 65%
Q1 0:00
2ND & 9
OWN 21
-5
33.7%
PENALTY Wyo False Start (Crum,Frank) 5 yards from Wyo21 to Wyo16. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 7FG7 plays · 19 yds · 2:0237% → 39%
Q2 13:39
3RD & 10
OPP 30
+19
36.3%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Dior Scott for 19 yds to the Wyom 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 8TD5 plays · 75 yds · 1:5162% → 69%
Q2 11:37
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+16
37.2%
Andrew Peasley pass complete to Joshua Cobbs for 16 yds to the Hawa 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 9PUNT6 plays · 18 yds · 1:1434% → 34%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 10INT5 plays · 23 yds · 1:5665% → 65%
Q2 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+9
34.7%
Andrew Peasley pass complete to Joshua Cobbs for 9 yds to the Wyom 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 11PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 1:0039% → 38%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 12FG6 plays · 82 yds · 3:3562% → 68%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 13PUNT6 plays · 3 yds · 1:0537% → 35%
Q2 1:50
2ND & 18
OWN 16
+6
36.4%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Dedrick Parson for 6 yds to the Hawa 22Similar
Q2 1:50
3RD & 12
OWN 22
+5
35.2%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Tylan Hines for 5 yds to the Hawa 27Similar
Q2 0:45
4TH & 7
OWN 27
0
35.3%
Matthew Shipley punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Cameron Stone at the Wyom 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 14PUNT6 plays · 8 yds · 0:3366% → 65%
HAWDrive 15END OF HALF1 play · -1 yds · 0:0038% → 38%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 16FG13 plays · 54 yds · 7:2665% → 66%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-7
31.3%
Andrew Peasley sacked by Logan Taylor for a loss of 7 yards to the Hawa 21Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 17
OPP 21
-5
32.2%
PENALTY Wyo False Start (Crum,Frank) 5 yards from Hawaii21 to Hawaii26. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 14
OPP 18
-3
33.9%
Andrew Peasley sacked by Jonah Kahahawai-Welch for a loss of 3 yards to the Hawa 21Similar
Q3 7:34
4TH & 17
OPP 21
+38
34.5%
John Hoyland 38 yd FG GOOD HAWAII Penalty, Defensive Offside ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 17FG14 plays · 76 yds · 5:2135% → 48%
Q3 7:29
3RD & 8
OWN 43
+9
35.5%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Zion Bowens for 9 yds to the Wyom 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:29
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
39.2%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Zion Bowens for 3 yds to the Hawa 49Similar
Q3 7:29
2ND & 13
OWN 49
+23
36.3%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Chuuky Hines for 23 yds to the Wyom 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:29
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+8
40.7%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Nicholas Cenacle for 8 yds to the Wyom 9Similar
Q3 7:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
40.7%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Chuuky Hines for 2 yds to the Wyom 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 18PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 1:3658% → 54%
HAWDrive 19PUNT4 plays · 9 yds · 0:4848% → 48%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 20TD4 plays · 80 yds · 2:0356% → 81%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 21DOWNS11 plays · 36 yds · 2:4924% → 23%
Q4 12:09
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+8
26.0%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Nicholas Cenacle for 8 yds to the Wyom 49Similar
Q4 9:20
4TH & 7
OPP 42
+3
23.2%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Chuuky Hines for 3 yds to the Wyom 39Similar
Q4 9:20
4TH & 7
OPP 42
+3
23.2%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Chuuky Hines for 3 yds to the Wyom 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 22TD9 plays · 61 yds · 5:0885% → 97%
Q4 9:20
3RD & 15
OPP 29
+25
15.0%
Andrew Peasley pass complete to Joshua Cobbs for 25 yds to the Hawa 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 23TD10 plays · 75 yds · 2:323% → 26%
Q4 4:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
3.3%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Tamatoa Mokiao-Atimalala for 15 yds to the Hawa 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:12
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
3.4%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Nicholas Cenacle for 2 yds to the Hawa 42Similar
Q4 4:12
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+15
3.5%
WYOMING Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Cameron Stone) to the Wyom 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:12
4TH & 1
OPP 30
+4
4.1%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Dior Scott for 4 yds to the Wyom 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:40
2ND & 4
OPP 20
+20
26.3%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Zion Bowens for 20 yds for a TD, (Matthew Shipley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:40
Brayden Schager pass complete to Zion Bowens for 20 yds for a TD, (Matthew Shipley KICK)
+22.1
TD · Q4 12:09
Dawaiian McNeely run for 61 yds for a TD, (John Hoyland KICK)
-21.8
TD · Q4 4:12
Andrew Peasley run for 4 yds for a TD, (John Hoyland KICK)
-11.6