Try the model
WKU

Western Kentucky 49 at Hawai'i 17

HAW
2022 · Week 1 · Sep 3, 2022 · Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · HAW
modelHAW aheadWKU aheadconfidence bandkey playHAW scoreWKU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 7:16 · Matthew Shipley punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Upton Stout at the WKent 18
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+56.5+28.30−28.3−56.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 26Pregame prior−33.6Home team on offense+0.4Score differential−0.1Garbage-time factor+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 11:36: Juwuan Jones 38 Yd Interception Return (Brayden Narveson Kick) — WKU win probability +4.7 pts (now 83%) (top driver: HAW has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 7:40: Dedrick Parson run for 9 yds for a TD, (Matthew Shipley KICK) — HAW win probability +7.9 pts (now 26%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  3. TD · Q2 2:52: Austin Reed pass complete to Joshua Simon for 47 yds for a TD, (Brayden Narveson KICK) — WKU win probability +7.9 pts (now 84%) (top driver: WKU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 7:37: Austin Reed pass complete to Jaylen Hall for 17 yds for a TD, (Brayden Narveson KICK) — WKU win probability +9.8 pts (now 94%) (top driver: WKU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 9:18: Nasjzae Bryant-Lelei run for 1 yd for a TD, (Matthew Shipley KICK) — HAW win probability +4.3 pts (now 5%) (top driver: HAW has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
HAW made the numbers' call on 6 of 9WKU made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
  1. Q1 13:50HAW 4th & 2 at HAW 31, tied
    Close callPunted · 15.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:46HAW 4th & 23 at WKU 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 17.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.8%−0.2
    7% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    17.0%
    70% to make
    Punt
    16.6%−0.4
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:14WKU 4th & 8 at HAW 34, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 80.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    80.7%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    80.7%−<0.1
    47% to make
    Punt
    80.6%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:16HAW 4th & 9 at HAW 35, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.4%−0.2
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.6%
    average punt
  5. Q1 6:04WKU 4th & 9 at WKU 31, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.8%−0.4
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.1%
    average punt
  6. Q1 6:04WKU 4th & 9 at WKU 31, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.8%−0.4
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.1%
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:35WKU 4th & 1 at WKU 47, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 74.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    75.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    74.0%−1.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:27WKU 4th & 5 at HAW 8, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 83.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.1%−0.5
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    83.7%
    90% to make
    Punt
    80.8%−2.8
    average punt
  9. Q3 13:34WKU 4th & 7 at WKU 28, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.4%−0.7
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.1%
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:24HAW 4th & 6 at WKU 42, down 11
    Close callPunted · 17.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    16.6%−0.9
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    17.1%−0.3
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:42WKU 4th & 7 at WKU 23, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.6%−1.2
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.8%
    average punt
  12. Q3 7:44HAW 4th & 6 at HAW 49, down 11
    Close callWent for it · 17.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    17.2%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    17.2%
    average punt
  13. Q3 7:30HAW 4th & 2 at WKU 49, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.5%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    9.8%−0.7
    average punt
  14. Q3 3:17HAW 4th & 5 at WKU 39, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.7%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    8.8%−1.0
    36% to make
    Punt
    8.8%−0.9
    average punt
  15. Q3 0:00HAW 4th & 6 at HAW 32, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.5%−0.9
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.4%
    average punt
  16. Q4 0:40HAW 4th & 1 at WKU 1, down 32
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%−<0.1
    94% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
HAW made the numbers' call on 1 of 2WKU made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
  1. Q2 13:23WKU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 11:36WKU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 7:40HAW Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 2:52WKU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 7:37WKU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 12:35WKU Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 9:18HAW Touchdown, down 19 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.9%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    3.0%
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 5:58WKU Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 5:20WKU Touchdown, up 31 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
HAWDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 1:1014% → 15%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
14.0%
Joey Yellen pass incomplete to Dior ScottSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+5
14.0%
PENALTY WKU Offside (Martin,Brodric) 5 yards from Hawaii23 to Hawaii28. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 28
+3
14.0%
Dedrick Parson run for 3 yds to the Hawa 31Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 31
0
14.0%
Joey Yellen pass incomplete to Jalen WalthallSimilar
Q1 13:50
4TH & 2
OWN 31
0
14.5%
Matthew Shipley punt for 54 yds , Upton Stout returns for no gain to the WKent 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 2FG
7 plays · -20 yds · 2:0415% → 16%
Q1 13:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
14.7%
Dedrick Parson run for no gain to the WKent 3Similar
Q1 13:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
14.7%
Parson,Dedrick rush middle for 2 yards gain to the WKU01 (Hunter,Jaden) PENALTY WKU Offside (Jones,Juwuan) 2 yards from WKU03 to WKU01. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-10
15.1%
Shotgun Parson,Dedrick rush left for 1 yard gain to the WKU00, End Of Play PENALTY Hawaii Holding (Murray,Jordan) 10 yards from WKU01 to WKU11. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
-7
15.1%
Joey Yellen sacked by JaQues Evans for a loss of 7 yards to the WKent 18Similar
Q1 13:01
3RD & GOAL
OPP 18
-5
15.0%
PENALTY Hawaii Delay Of Game 5 yards from WKU18 to WKU23. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:01
3RD & GOAL
OPP 23
0
15.0%
Joey Yellen pass incomplete to James PhillipsSimilar
Q1 11:46
4TH & GOAL
OPP 23
+40
15.7%
Matthew Shipley 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 3DOWNS
9 plays · 41 yds · 3:3284% → 82%
Q1 11:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+26
15.8%
Austin Reed pass complete to Jakairi Moses for 26 yds to the Hawa 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:46
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-10
15.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun Reed,Austin pass complete short middle to Corley,Malachi for 3 yards to the Hawaii46 (Forest,Jojo) PENALTY WKU Holding (Moses,Jakairi) 10 yards from Hawaii49 to WKU41. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:46
1ST & 20
OWN 41
+23
15.7%
Austin Reed pass complete to Daewood Davis for 23 yds to the HAWAII 36 for a 1ST down HAWAII Penalty, Defensive Offside ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:46
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+4
15.6%
Austin Reed pass complete to Jakairi Moses for 4 yds to the Hawa 40Similar
Q1 11:46
2ND & 14
OPP 40
+8
15.7%
Austin Reed pass complete to Jaylen Hall for 8 yds to the Hawa 32Similar
Q1 11:46
3RD & 6
OPP 32
-15
15.6%
WESTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (-15 Yards) to the Hawa 46Similar
Q1 11:46
3RD & 20
OPP 46
+12
15.7%
Austin Reed run for 12 yds to the Hawa 34Similar
Q1 8:14
4TH & 8
OPP 34
0
17.8%
Austin Reed pass incomplete to Daewood DavisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:5818% → 18%
Q1 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
17.8%
Dedrick Parson run for 1 yd to the Hawa 35Similar
Q1 8:14
2ND & 9
OWN 35
0
17.8%
Joey Yellen pass incomplete to James PhillipsSimilar
Q1 8:14
3RD & 9
OWN 35
0
17.6%
Joey Yellen pass incomplete to Dior ScottSimilar
Q1 7:16
4TH & 9
OWN 35
0
18.0%
Matthew Shipley punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Upton Stout at the WKent 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 1:1282% → 80%
Q1 7:16
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+12
18.5%
Austin Reed pass complete to Dalvin Smith for 12 yds to the WKent 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:16
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
18.4%
Austin Reed pass incomplete to Dalvin SmithSimilar
Q1 7:16
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+1
18.5%
Austin Reed pass complete to Jakairi Moses for 1 yd to the WKent 31Similar
Q1 7:16
3RD & 9
OWN 31
0
18.7%
Austin Reed pass incomplete to Michael MathisonSimilar
Q1 6:04
4TH & 9
OWN 31
0
19.6%
Tom Ellard punt for 35 ydsSimilar
Q1 6:04
4TH & 9
OWN 31
0
19.6%
Tom Ellard punt for 35 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 6INT
10 plays · 19 yds · 3:4019% → 21%
Q1 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-10
19.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun Parson,Dedrick rush middle for 4 yards gain to the Hawaii38 (Hailassie,Kahlef) PENALTY Hawaii Holding (Phillips,Caleb) 10 yards from Hawaii34 to Hawaii24. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:04
1ST & 20
OWN 24
+2
19.0%
Joey Yellen pass complete to Dedrick Parson for 2 yds to the Hawa 26Similar
Q1 6:04
2ND & 18
OWN 26
+3
18.9%
Joey Yellen pass complete to Caleb Phillips for 3 yds to the Hawa 29Similar
Q1 6:04
3RD & 15
OWN 29
+22
18.7%
Joey Yellen pass complete to Caleb Phillips for 22 yds to the WKent 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:04
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+9
19.6%
Joey Yellen pass complete to James Phillips for 9 yds to the WKent 40Similar
Q1 6:04
2ND & 1
OPP 40
+2
19.7%
Nasjzae Bryant-Lelei run for 2 yds to the WKent 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:04
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-5
19.7%
PENALTY Hawaii False Start (Manning,Ilm) 5 yards from WKU38 to WKU43. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:04
1ST & 15
OPP 43
-4
19.4%
Joey Yellen sacked by Kahlef Hailassie for a loss of 4 yards to the WKent 47Similar
Q1 6:04
2ND & 19
OPP 47
0
19.3%
Joey Yellen pass incomplete to Jordan MurraySimilar
Q1 2:24
3RD & 19
OPP 47
0
21.2%
Joey Yellen pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 7TD
14 plays · 68 yds · 4:0179% → 81%
Q1 2:24
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+8
21.2%
Austin Reed pass complete to Daewood Davis for 8 yds to the WKent 40Similar
Q1 2:24
2ND & 2
OWN 40
+9
20.8%
Davion Ervin-Poindexter run for 9 yds to the WKent 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:24
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-10
20.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun Reed,Austin pass incomplete short left to Ervin-Poindexter,Davion PENALTY WKU Holding (Goode,Mark) 10 yards from WKU49 to WKU39. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:24
1ST & 20
OWN 39
+5
21.3%
Davion Ervin-Poindexter run for 5 yds to the WKent 44Similar
Q1 2:24
2ND & 15
OWN 44
+21
21.2%
Austin Reed pass complete to Daewood Davis for 21 yds to the Hawa 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:24
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+13
20.3%
Davion Ervin-Poindexter run for 13 yds to the Hawa 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:24
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
20.2%
Austin Reed pass incomplete to Daewood DavisSimilar
Q1 2:24
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+5
20.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun Reed,Austin pass incomplete short left to Mathison,Michael PENALTY Hawaii Offside (Pavihi,Penei) 5 yards from Hawaii22 to Hawaii17. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 5
OPP 17
+7
21.5%
Austin Reed run for 7 yds to the Hawa 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
21.5%
Davion Ervin-Poindexter run for 3 yds to the Hawa 7Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
-15
21.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun Reed,Austin pass complete short right to Davis,Daewood for 0 yards to the Hawaii07 PENALTY WKU Pass Interference (Mathison,Michael) 15 yards from Hawaii07 to Hawaii22. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 22
+15
21.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun Reed,Austin pass incomplete short left to Mathison,Michael PENALTY Hawaii Pass Interference (Forest,Jojo) 15 yards from Hawaii22 to Hawaii07, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
21.5%
Davion Ervin-Poindexter run for 2 yds to the Hawa 5Similar
Q2 13:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
19.5%
Austin Reed pass complete to Dalvin Smith for 5 yds for a TD, (Brayden Narveson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 8INT TD
5 plays · 21 yds · 1:4721% → 17%
Q2 13:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
20.8%
Nasjzae Bryant-Lelei run for 13 yds to the Hawa 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:23
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
21.3%
Nasjzae Bryant-Lelei run for 5 yds to the Hawa 43Similar
Q2 13:23
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+3
22.0%
Dedrick Parson run for 3 yds to the Hawa 46Similar
Q2 11:36
3RD & 2
OWN 46
-38
17.3%
Juwuan Jones 38 Yd Interception Return (Brayden Narveson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 9TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:5617% → 26%
Q2 11:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
16.8%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Jonah Panoke for 8 yds to the Hawa 33Similar
Q2 11:36
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+3
17.2%
Nasjzae Bryant-Lelei run for 3 yds to the Hawa 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:36
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
17.1%
Nasjzae Bryant-Lelei run for 4 yds to the Hawa 40Similar
Q2 11:36
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+24
17.4%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Jonah Panoke for 24 yds to the WKent 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:36
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+13
17.8%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Tamatoa Mokiao-Atimalala for 13 yds to the WKent 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
18.8%
Dedrick Parson run for 3 yds to the WKent 20Similar
Q2 9:45
2ND & 7
OPP 20
+4
18.8%
Dedrick Parson run for 4 yds to the WKent 16Similar
Q2 9:45
3RD & 3
OPP 16
+7
18.1%
Nasjzae Bryant-Lelei run for 7 yds to the WKent 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
26.0%
Dedrick Parson run for 9 yds for a TD, (Matthew Shipley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 10TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 4:4877% → 84%
Q2 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
22.7%
Davion Ervin-Poindexter run for no gain to the WKent 25Similar
Q2 7:40
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
23.0%
Michael Mathison run for 6 yds to the WKent 31Similar
Q2 7:40
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+7
22.5%
Austin Reed pass complete to Michael Mathison for 7 yds to the WKent 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
21.8%
Austin Reed pass complete to Jakairi Moses for 1 yd to the WKent 37Similar
Q2 7:40
2ND & 11
OWN 37
+3
22.4%
Jakairi Moses run for 3 yds to the WKent 40Similar
Q2 7:40
3RD & 8
OWN 40
+7
22.0%
Austin Reed run for 7 yds to the WKent 47Similar
Q2 3:35
4TH & 1
OWN 47
+6
23.7%
Austin Reed run for 6 yds to the Hawa 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:52
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+47
15.8%
Austin Reed pass complete to Joshua Simon for 47 yds for a TD, (Brayden Narveson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 11INT
5 plays · -4 yds · 1:1716% → 15%
Q2 2:46
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+6
15.8%
Dior Scott run for 6 yds to the Hawa 17Similar
Q2 2:46
2ND & 16
OWN 17
+2
15.7%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Dior Scott for 2 yds to the Hawa 19Similar
Q2 1:29
3RD & 14
OWN 19
0
15.4%
Brayden Schager pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 12MISSED FG
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:0285% → 85%
Q2 1:29
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
14.9%
Austin Reed pass incomplete to Joshua SimonSimilar
Q2 1:24
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+7
14.6%
Austin Reed pass complete to Malachi Corley for 7 yds to the Hawa 6Similar
Q2 1:24
3RD & 3
OPP 6
+2
14.8%
Jakairi Moses run for 2 yds to the Hawa 8Similar
Q2 0:27
4TH & 5
OPP 8
+26
14.7%
Brayden Narveson 26 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 13END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
16.4%
Brayden Schager run for a loss of 1 yard to the Hawa 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:2683% → 82%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
17.0%
Kye Robichaux run for 3 yds to the WKent 28Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
16.8%
Austin Reed pass complete to Malachi Corley for no gain to the WKent 28Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
17.3%
Austin Reed pass incomplete to Daewood DavisSimilar
Q3 13:34
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
17.8%
Tom Ellard punt for 46 yds , Dior Scott returns for no gain to the Hawa 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 15PUNT
10 plays · 32 yds · 3:1017% → 17%
Q3 13:34
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+8
17.2%
Nasjzae Bryant-Lelei run for 8 yds to the Hawa 34Similar
Q3 13:34
2ND & 2
OWN 34
+6
17.7%
Nasjzae Bryant-Lelei run for 6 yds to the Hawa 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:34
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
17.9%
Dedrick Parson run for 2 yds to the Hawa 42Similar
Q3 13:34
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+5
18.0%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Jalen Walthall for 5 yds to the Hawa 47Similar
Q3 13:34
3RD & 3
OWN 47
-10
18.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun Bryant-Lelei,Nasjzae rush middle for 0 yards to the Hawaii47 (Allen,Talique; Smith,Derrick) PENALTY Hawaii Holding (Manning,Ilm) 10 yards from Hawaii47 to Hawaii37. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:34
3RD & 13
OWN 37
+17
16.5%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Jalen Walthall for 17 yds to the WKent 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:34
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
18.8%
Nasjzae Bryant-Lelei run for 4 yds to the WKent 42Similar
Q3 13:34
2ND & 6
OPP 42
0
18.8%
Brayden Schager pass incomplete to James PhillipsSimilar
Q3 13:34
3RD & 6
OPP 42
0
18.5%
Brayden Schager pass incomplete to Jonah PanokeSimilar
Q3 10:24
4TH & 6
OPP 42
0
16.5%
Matthew Shipley punt for 42 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:4283% → 83%
Q3 10:24
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
16.6%
Austin Reed pass complete to Malachi Corley for 3 yds to the WKent 23Similar
Q3 10:24
2ND & 7
OWN 23
0
16.6%
Austin Reed pass incomplete to Daewood DavisSimilar
Q3 10:24
3RD & 7
OWN 23
0
16.9%
Austin Reed pass incomplete to Malachi CorleySimilar
Q3 9:42
4TH & 7
OWN 23
0
17.4%
Tom Ellard punt for 44 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 17INT
5 plays · 16 yds · 1:5817% → 16%
Q3 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+12
16.5%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Jordan Murray for 12 yds to the Hawa 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
17.3%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Dior Scott for 2 yds to the Hawa 43Similar
Q3 9:42
2ND & 12
OWN 43
0
16.9%
Brayden Schager pass incomplete to Dior ScottSimilar
Q3 9:42
3RD & 12
OWN 43
+6
16.0%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Dedrick Parson for 6 yds to the Hawa 49Similar
Q3 7:44
4TH & 6
OWN 49
0
16.4%
Brayden Schager pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 18TD
1 play · 17 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q3 7:37
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
6.5%
Austin Reed pass complete to Jaylen Hall for 17 yds for a TD, (Brayden Narveson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 19INT
11 plays · 29 yds · 4:139% → 9%
Q3 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+11
9.1%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Dedrick Parson for 11 yds to the Hawa 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+8
9.7%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Dedrick Parson for 8 yds to the WKent 49Similar
Q3 7:30
2ND & 2
OPP 49
0
10.2%
Brayden Schager pass incomplete to Tamatoa Mokiao-AtimalalaSimilar
Q3 7:30
3RD & 2
OPP 49
0
10.0%
Dedrick Parson run for no gain to the WKent 49Similar
Q3 7:30
4TH & 2
OPP 49
+5
9.8%
Nasjzae Bryant-Lelei run for 5 yds to the WKent 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-15
10.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun Schager,Brayden pass incomplete short right PENALTY Hawaii Personal Foul (Manning,Ilm) 15 yards from WKU44 to Hawaii41. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:30
1ST & 25
OWN 41
+5
9.3%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Caleb Phillips for 5 yds to the Hawa 46Similar
Q3 7:30
2ND & 20
OWN 46
+16
9.2%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Chuuky Hines for 16 yds to the WKent 38Similar
Q3 7:30
3RD & 4
OPP 38
+1
10.0%
Nasjzae Bryant-Lelei run for 1 yd to the WKent 39Similar
Q3 3:17
4TH & 5
OPP 39
0
9.0%
Brayden Schager pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 20INT
5 plays · 50 yds · 1:5995% → 96%
Q3 3:17
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+4
5.0%
Davion Ervin-Poindexter run for 4 yds to the WKent 10Similar
Q3 3:17
2ND & 6
OWN 10
+15
5.1%
HAWAII Penalty, Targeting (Marsh,Ty) 15 yards from WKU14 to WKU29, 1ST DOWN. (Ty Marsh) to the WKent 29Similar
Q3 3:17
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
5.0%
Austin Reed pass complete to Malachi Corley for 2 yds to the WKent 31Similar
Q3 3:17
2ND & 8
OWN 31
+25
5.0%
Austin Reed pass complete to Craig Burt Jr. for 25 yds to the Hawa 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:18
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
4.1%
Austin Reed pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:187% → 6%
Q3 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+7
7.0%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Jordan Murray for 7 yds to the Hawa 35Similar
Q3 1:18
2ND & 3
OWN 35
0
7.3%
Brayden Schager pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:18
3RD & 3
OWN 35
+3
7.3%
Dedrick Parson run for 3 yds to the Hawa 32Similar
Q3 0:00
4TH & 6
OWN 32
0
6.3%
Matthew Shipley punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the WKent 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 22TD
8 plays · 64 yds · 2:2596% → 100%
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+19
4.1%
Austin Reed pass complete to Joey Beljan for 19 yds to the Hawa 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
3.9%
Austin Reed run for 1 yd to the Hawa 44Similar
Q4 14:05
2ND & 9
OPP 44
+15
3.1%
Austin Reed pass complete to Daewood Davis for 15 yds to the Hawa 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:05
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+19
3.1%
Austin Reed pass complete to Dalvin Smith for 19 yds to the Hawa 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
3.1%
Austin Reed run for 3 yds to the Hawa 7Similar
Q4 12:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
0.4%
Kye Robichaux run for 7 yds for a TD, (Brayden Narveson KICK)Similar
Q4 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-15
0.5%
PENALTY WKU UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Reed,Austin) 15 yards from WKU35 to WKU20. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 23TD
10 plays · 58 yds · 3:100% → 4%
Q4 12:28
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
0.4%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Jordan Murray for 3 yds to the Hawa 45Similar
Q4 12:28
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+31
0.4%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Jalen Walthall for 31 yds to the WKent 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:28
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+4
0.5%
Dedrick Parson run for 4 yds to the WKent 20Similar
Q4 12:28
2ND & 6
OPP 20
+7
0.5%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Nasjzae Bryant-Lelei for 7 yds to the WKent 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:28
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+7
0.5%
Nasjzae Bryant-Lelei run for 7 yds to the WKent 6Similar
Q4 12:28
2ND & 3
OPP 6
+5
0.5%
Dedrick Parson run for 5 yds to the WKent 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
0.5%
Dedrick Parson run for no gain to the WKent 1Similar
Q4 9:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
4.8%
Nasjzae Bryant-Lelei run for 1 yd for a TD, (Matthew Shipley KICK)Similar
Q4 9:18
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-15
3.8%
PENALTY Hawaii UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Manning,Ilm) 15 yards from Hawaii35 to Hawaii20. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 24TD
9 plays · 53 yds · 3:1498% → 100%
Q4 9:12
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+13
2.4%
Kye Robichaux run for 13 yds to the Hawa 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:12
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
2.3%
Kye Robichaux run for 5 yds to the Hawa 35Similar
Q4 9:12
2ND & 5
OPP 35
+11
2.3%
Austin Reed pass complete to Daewood Davis for 11 yds to the Hawa 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:12
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+12
2.4%
Kye Robichaux run for 12 yds to the Hawa 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:12
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+9
2.4%
Kye Robichaux run for 9 yds to the Hawa 3Similar
Q4 9:12
2ND & 1
OPP 3
0
2.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun Robichaux,Kye rush middle for 0 yards to the Hawaii03 (Ta'ala,Blessman) PENALTY Hawaii Illegal Substitution 1 yard from Hawaii03 to Hawaii02, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
2.3%
Kye Robichaux run for no gain to the Hawa 2Similar
Q4 5:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
0.2%
Austin Reed run for 2 yds for a TD, (Brayden Narveson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 25TD
3 plays · 9 yds · 0:31100% → 100%
Q4 5:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
0.2%
HAWAII Penalty, UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Kamana,Noa) 3 yards from Hawaii05 to Hawaii02, 1ST DOWN. (Virdel Edwards II) to the Hawa 2Similar
Q4 5:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
0.1%
Davion Ervin-Poindexter run for 2 yds for a TD, (Brayden Narveson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 26DOWNS
14 plays · 74 yds · 4:400% → 0%
Q4 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
0.1%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Jordan Johnson for 14 yds to the Hawa 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+12
0.1%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Jordan Johnson for 12 yds to the WKent 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:20
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+6
0.1%
Brayden Schager pass complete to James Phillips for 6 yds to the WKent 43Similar
Q4 5:20
2ND & 4
OPP 43
+7
0.1%
Brayden Schager pass complete to James Phillips for 7 yds to the WKent 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:20
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
0.1%
Brayden Schager pass incomplete to James PhillipsSimilar
Q4 5:20
2ND & 10
OPP 36
0
0.1%
Brayden Schager pass incomplete to Tylan HinesSimilar
Q4 5:20
3RD & 10
OPP 36
+18
0.1%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Dior Scott for 18 yds to the WKent 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:20
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+17
0.2%
Brayden Schager run for 17 yds to the WKent 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
0.2%
Dedrick Parson run for 1 yd to the WKent 2Similar
Q4 5:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
0.2%
Dedrick Parson run for 1 yd to the WKent 3Similar
Q4 1:21
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
0.1%
Cammon Cooper run for 2 yds to the WKent 1Similar
Q4 0:40
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
0.1%
Cammon Cooper run for no gain to the WKent 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 27END OF GAME
1 play · 0 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
0.2%
L.T. Sanders run for no gain to the WKent 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 7:37
Austin Reed pass complete to Jaylen Hall for 17 yds for a TD, (Brayden Narveson KICK)
-9.8
TD · Q2 7:40
Dedrick Parson run for 9 yds for a TD, (Matthew Shipley KICK)
+7.9
TD · Q2 2:52
Austin Reed pass complete to Joshua Simon for 47 yds for a TD, (Brayden Narveson KICK)
-7.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com