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HAW

Hawai'i 52 at Middle Tennessee 35

MTSU
2016 · Hawai'i Bowl · Dec 24, 2016 · Aloha Stadium
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Win probability · MTSU
modelMTSU aheadHAW aheadconfidence bandkey playMTSU scoreHAW score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 2:02 · Dru Brown pass complete to Marcus Kemp for 17 yds to the MTnSt 2 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+50.5+25.30−25.3−50.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 135Home team on offense−17.4Score differential−7.4Pregame prior+3.6Garbage-time factor−6.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:30: Brent Stockstill pass intercepted for a TD Trayvon Henderson return for 68 yds for a TD, (Rigoberto Sanchez KICK) — HAW win probability +11.2 pts (now 57%) (top driver: MTSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:41: Brent Stockstill pass complete to Ty Lee for 3 yds for a TD, (Canon Rooker KICK) — MTSU win probability +12.8 pts (now 54%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
  3. TD · Q3 7:51: Brent Stockstill pass complete to Dennis Andrews for 10 yds for a TD, (Canon Rooker KICK) — MTSU win probability +13.8 pts (now 39%) (top driver: MTSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 1:15: Dru Brown pass complete to Metuisela 'Unga for 12 yds for a TD, (Rigoberto Sanchez KICK) — HAW win probability +13.8 pts (now 90%) (top driver: HAW has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 10:09: Ty Lee 13 Yd pass from Brent Stockstill (Canon Rooker Kick) — MTSU win probability +14.0 pts (now 22%) (top driver: MTSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MTSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6HAW made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 13:35HAW 4th & 2 at HAW 34, tied
    Close callPunted · 36.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:31HAW 4th & 25 at HAW 25, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.0%−0.2
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:34HAW 4th & 1 at MTSU 18, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 30.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    30.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    30.1%−0.8
    79% to make
    Punt
    27.7%−3.2
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:44MTSU 4th & 5 at MTSU 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.4%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.5%
    average punt
  5. Q2 4:59MTSU 4th & 7 at HAW 33, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 40.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    40.6%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    40.5%−0.2
    49% to make
    Punt
    39.8%−0.8
    average punt
  6. Q2 3:21HAW 4th & 8 at HAW 35, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.1%−1.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.2%
    average punt
  7. Q3 13:18MTSU 4th & 13 at MTSU 22, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.5%−2.8
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.3%
    average punt
  8. Q3 9:46HAW 4th & 7 at MTSU 7, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 74.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.1%−0.6
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    73.7%
    91% to make
    Punt
    64.7%−9.0
    average punt
  9. Q3 4:30HAW 4th & 3 at MTSU 47, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 69.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    71.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    69.7%−1.3
    average punt
  10. Q3 2:02HAW 4th & 3 at MTSU 19, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 71.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    72.3%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    71.1%−1.1
    77% to make
    Punt
    60.8%−11.5
    average punt
  11. Q3 0:00MTSU 4th & 25 at MTSU 26, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.7%−4.0
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.8%
    average punt
  12. Q4 11:24HAW 4th & 6 at MTSU 45, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 92.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    92.3%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    91.1%−1.2
    25% to make
    Punt
    92.0%−0.3
    average punt
  13. Q4 0:55MTSU 4th & 3 at HAW 28, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    2.3%−0.3
    60% to make
    Punt
    1.8%−0.7
    average punt
  14. Q4 0:34MTSU 4th & 2 at HAW 2, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    2.4%−1.3
    94% to make
    Punt
    1.8%−1.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MTSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5HAW made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
  1. Q1 12:09MTSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 9:46MTSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 4:09HAW Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 2:39HAW Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    36.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    36.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 11:43HAW Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 7:30HAW Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 1:41MTSU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q2 0:22HAW Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 7:51MTSU Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    34.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  10. Q3 1:15HAW Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 10:09MTSU Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    17.8%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    17.9%
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 3:31HAW Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
HAWDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:0937% → 37%
Q1 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+7
63.1%
Diocemy Saint Juste run for 7 yds to the Hawa 33Similar
Q1 14:20
2ND & 3
OWN 33
0
63.0%
Dru Brown pass incomplete to Keelan EwalikoSimilar
Q1 14:11
3RD & 3
OWN 33
+1
63.0%
Diocemy Saint Juste run for 1 yd to the Hawa 34Similar
Q1 13:35
4TH & 2
OWN 34
0
63.0%
Rigoberto Sanchez punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Richie James at the MTnSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 2TD
5 plays · 74 yds · 1:1463% → 64%
Q1 13:23
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+12
63.0%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Richie James for 12 yds to the MTnSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-10
63.1%
Mathers, I'Tavius rush for loss of 2 yards to the MIDDLETENN36, PENALTY MIDDLETENN holding (Chester, Josh) 10 yards to the MIDDLETENN28, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:47
1ST & 20
OWN 28
+18
63.0%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to I'Tavius Mathers for 18 yds to the MTnSt 46Similar
Q1 12:20
2ND & 2
OWN 46
+34
63.3%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Dennis Andrews for 34 yds to the Hawa 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:09
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
64.3%
I'Tavius Mathers run for 20 yds for a TD, (Canon Rooker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · -15 yds · 1:2236% → 35%
Q1 11:53
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
63.8%
Diocemy Saint Juste run for 4 yds to the Hawa 44Similar
Q1 11:04
2ND & 6
OWN 44
-19
63.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 19 yards to the Hawa 25Similar
Q1 10:41
3RD & 25
OWN 25
0
64.5%
Dru Brown pass incomplete to Keelan EwalikoSimilar
Q1 10:31
4TH & 25
OWN 25
+5
64.6%
Rigoberto Sanchez punt for 50 yds , Richie James returns for 5 yds to the MTnSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 4TD
3 plays · 70 yds · 0:3065% → 67%
Q1 10:16
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
64.6%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Ty Lee for 5 yds to the MTnSt 35Similar
Q1 9:53
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+14
64.9%
Stockstill, Brent pass incomplete to James, Richie, PENALTY HAWAII pass interference 14 yards to the MIDDLETENN49, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MIDDLETENN.Similar
Q1 9:46
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+51
67.0%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Richie James for 51 yds for a TD, (Canon Rooker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 5DOWNS
11 plays · 49 yds · 4:3633% → 31%
Q1 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-4
66.6%
Dru Brown sacked by Darius Harris for a loss of 4 yards to the Hawa 29Similar
Q1 8:45
2ND & 14
OWN 29
+5
67.0%
MIDDLE TENN Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Hawa 34Similar
Q1 8:30
2ND & 9
OWN 34
+16
67.0%
Diocemy Saint Juste run for 16 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:00
1ST & 10
50
+6
67.2%
Dru Brown pass complete to Dylan Collie for 6 yds to the MTnSt 44Similar
Q1 7:12
2ND & 4
OPP 44
-2
67.4%
Diocemy Saint Juste run for a loss of 2 yards to the MTnSt 46Similar
Q1 6:28
3RD & 6
OPP 46
+19
68.1%
Diocemy Saint Juste run for 19 yds to the MTnSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:06
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+6
67.6%
Dru Brown run for 6 yds to the MTnSt 21Similar
Q1 5:30
2ND & 4
OPP 21
+2
67.9%
Diocemy Saint Juste run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 19Similar
Q1 4:58
3RD & 2
OPP 19
+1
68.5%
Dru Brown run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 18Similar
Q1 4:34
4TH & 1
OPP 18
0
68.9%
Steven Lakalaka run for no gain to the MTnSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 6FUMBLE
3 plays · 12 yds · 0:1771% → 71%
Q1 4:29
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+15
70.6%
Stockstill, Brent pass incomplete to Anderson, Desmond, PENALTY HAWAII pass interference (Farris II, Rojesterman) 15 yards to the MIDDLETENN33, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MIDDLETENN.Similar
Q1 4:24
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
70.7%
Brent Stockstill pass incomplete to Desmond AndersonSimilar
Q1 4:12
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+12
70.8%
Brent Stockstill sacked by Ikem Okeke for a loss of 5 yards to the MTnSt 18 Brent Stockstill fumbled, forced by Ikem Okeke, recovered by Hawa Jahlani Tavai , return for 12 yds to the MTnSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 7TD
1 play · 18 yds · 0:0036% → 36%
Q1 4:09
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
64.5%
Dru Brown pass complete to Metuisela 'Unga for 18 yds for a TD, (Rigoberto Sanchez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 8INT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:5967% → 67%
Q1 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
66.6%
I'Tavius Mathers run for a loss of 5 yards to the MTnSt 30Similar
Q1 3:30
2ND & 15
OWN 30
+6
66.5%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Richie James for 6 yds to the MTnSt 36Similar
Q1 3:01
3RD & 9
OWN 36
0
66.6%
Brent Stockstill pass intercepted Jalen Rogers return for no gain to the MTnSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 9TD
3 plays · 45 yds · 0:1635% → 40%
Q1 2:55
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
65.2%
Dru Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:44
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+44
65.3%
Dru Brown pass complete to John Ursua for 44 yds to the MTnSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
60.3%
Steven Lakalaka run for 1 yd for a TD, (Rigoberto Sanchez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 10PUNT
8 plays · 20 yds · 1:4362% → 62%
Q1 2:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
62.4%
I'Tavius Mathers run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 26Similar
Q1 2:03
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
62.4%
Brent Stockstill pass incomplete to Dennis AndrewsSimilar
Q1 1:55
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+14
61.8%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Ty Lee for 14 yds to the MTnSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
63.2%
Brent Stockstill pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:20
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+5
62.8%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Ty Lee for 5 yds to the MTnSt 45Similar
Q1 0:52
3RD & 5
OWN 45
0
63.1%
Brent Stockstill pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:44
4TH & 5
OWN 45
0
62.2%
Matt Bonadies punt for 55 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 11TD
9 plays · 80 yds · 3:4539% → 47%
Q1 0:28
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
61.3%
Diocemy Saint Juste run for 6 yds to the Hawa 26Similar
Q1 0:03
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+26
61.0%
Diocemy Saint Juste run for 26 yds to the MTnSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:48
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+6
59.7%
Dru Brown pass complete to John Ursua for 6 yds to the MTnSt 42Similar
Q2 14:11
2ND & 4
OPP 42
+24
59.4%
Dru Brown pass complete to Metuisela 'Unga for 24 yds to the MTnSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:20
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+12
59.3%
Dru Brown run for 12 yds to the MTnSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
59.2%
Diocemy Saint Juste run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 4Similar
Q2 12:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
59.0%
Dru Brown pass complete to Diocemy Saint Juste for 2 yds to the MTnSt 2Similar
Q2 11:43
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
53.1%
Dru Brown run for 2 yds for a TD, (Rigoberto Sanchez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 12INT TD
10 plays · 29 yds · 3:5655% → 43%
Q2 11:26
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+15
55.0%
Richie James run for 15 yds to the MTnSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-1
55.2%
Richie James run for a loss of 1 yard to the MTnSt 31Similar
Q2 10:15
2ND & 11
OWN 31
+3
54.5%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Dennis Andrews for 3 yds to the MTnSt 34Similar
Q2 9:47
3RD & 8
OWN 34
+15
53.7%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Richie James for 15 yds to the MTnSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
55.5%
Richie James run for 4 yds to the Hawa 47Similar
Q2 8:39
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+5
55.8%
I'Tavius Mathers run for 5 yds to the Hawa 42Similar
Q2 8:25
3RD & 1
OPP 42
+3
55.7%
I'Tavius Mathers run for 3 yds to the Hawa 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:47
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-15
54.5%
MIDDLE TENN Penalty, Clipping (-15 Yards) to the MTnSt 46Similar
Q2 7:30
1ST & 25
OWN 46
+68
43.3%
Brent Stockstill pass intercepted for a TD Trayvon Henderson return for 68 yds for a TD, (Rigoberto Sanchez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 13DOWNS
11 plays · 42 yds · 2:2042% → 42%
Q2 7:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
42.0%
Brent Stockstill run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 28Similar
Q2 6:42
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+8
41.7%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to I'Tavius Mathers for 8 yds to the MTnSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:32
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
42.1%
Brent Stockstill pass incomplete to Richie JamesSimilar
Q2 6:13
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+16
41.3%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Richie James for 16 yds to the Hawa 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:08
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
43.1%
Brent Stockstill pass incomplete to Dennis AndrewsSimilar
Q2 5:55
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+12
42.9%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Terelle West for 12 yds to the Hawa 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:44
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
42.7%
Brent Stockstill pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:40
2ND & 10
OPP 36
0
42.6%
Brent Stockstill pass incomplete to I'Tavius MathersSimilar
Q2 5:26
3RD & 10
OPP 36
+3
42.2%
I'Tavius Mathers run for 3 yds to the Hawa 33Similar
Q2 4:59
4TH & 7
OPP 33
0
41.5%
Brent Stockstill pass incomplete to Dennis AndrewsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:3161% → 62%
Q2 4:52
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
38.8%
Diocemy Saint Juste run for 1 yd to the Hawa 34Similar
Q2 3:54
2ND & 9
OWN 34
+1
37.9%
Diocemy Saint Juste run for 1 yd to the Hawa 35Similar
Q2 3:29
3RD & 8
OWN 35
0
37.8%
Dru Brown pass incomplete to Makoa Camanse-StevensSimilar
Q2 3:21
4TH & 8
OWN 35
0
38.2%
Rigoberto Sanchez punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Richie James at the MTnSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 15TD
8 plays · 82 yds · 1:3239% → 54%
Q2 3:13
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+8
39.1%
Brent Stockstill run for 8 yds to the MTnSt 26Similar
Q2 2:47
2ND & 2
OWN 26
+7
39.6%
Dennis Andrews run for 7 yds to the MTnSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+21
38.7%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Ty Lee for 21 yds to the Hawa 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:57
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+28
39.5%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Richie James for 28 yds to the Hawa 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:53
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+15
40.7%
Stockstill, Brent pass incomplete to James, Richie, PENALTY HAWAII pass interference (Henderson, Trayvon) 15 yards to the HAWAII3, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MIDDLETENN.Similar
Q2 1:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
40.9%
Brent Stockstill pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
53.8%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Ty Lee for 3 yds for a TD, (Canon Rooker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 16TD
8 plays · 55 yds · 1:0256% → 69%
Q2 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+7
43.6%
Diocemy Saint Juste run for 7 yds to the MTnSt 48Similar
Q2 1:11
2ND & 3
OPP 48
+12
42.3%
Dru Brown pass complete to Keelan Ewaliko for 12 yds to the MTnSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:55
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
41.7%
Dru Brown pass incomplete to Keelan EwalikoSimilar
Q2 0:47
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+2
41.6%
Dru Brown run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 34Similar
Q2 0:37
3RD & 8
OPP 34
-5
41.2%
HAWAII Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (-5 Yards) to the MTnSt 39Similar
Q2 0:22
3RD & 13
OPP 39
+39
31.1%
Dru Brown pass complete to Marcus Kemp for 39 yds for a TD, (Rigoberto Sanchez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 17END OF HALF
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:1035% → 34%
Q2 0:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
34.6%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Ty Lee for 4 yds to the MTnSt 29Similar
Q2 0:16
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-5
34.7%
MIDDLE TENN Penalty, False Start (Maurquice Shakir) to the MTnSt 24Similar
Q2 0:06
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+8
34.0%
I'Tavius Mathers run for 8 yds to the MTnSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:3233% → 31%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
33.3%
I'Tavius Mathers run for no gain to the MTnSt 25Similar
Q3 14:19
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
32.7%
Richie James run for 5 yds to the MTnSt 30Similar
Q3 14:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
-8
32.7%
Richie James run for a loss of 8 yards to the MTnSt 22 Richie James fumbled, recovered by MTnSt Richie JamesSimilar
Q3 13:18
4TH & 13
OWN 22
0
31.4%
Matt Bonadies punt for 38 yds, fair catch by John Ursua at the Hawa 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 19FG
8 plays · 54 yds · 3:2571% → 78%
Q3 13:11
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+11
28.7%
Diocemy Saint Juste run for 11 yds to the MTnSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:50
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
27.8%
Dru Brown pass incomplete to John UrsuaSimilar
Q3 12:40
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+5
27.6%
Diocemy Saint Juste run for 5 yds to the MTnSt 44Similar
Q3 12:14
3RD & 5
OPP 44
+35
27.7%
Dru Brown pass complete to John Ursua for 35 yds to the MTnSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
26.1%
Diocemy Saint Juste run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 5Similar
Q3 11:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-1
25.2%
Diocemy Saint Juste run for a loss of 1 yard to the MTnSt 6Similar
Q3 10:03
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
-1
23.1%
Dru Brown pass complete to Dejon Allen for a loss of 1 yard to the MTnSt 7Similar
Q3 9:46
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+23
22.4%
Rigoberto Sanchez 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 20TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 1:5123% → 39%
Q3 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
23.2%
Brent Stockstill pass incomplete to I'Tavius MathersSimilar
Q3 9:36
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+31
22.9%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Richie James for 31 yds to the Hawa 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:15
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+11
25.3%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Dennis Andrews for 11 yds to the Hawa 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:58
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
25.6%
Brent Stockstill pass incomplete to Richie JamesSimilar
Q3 8:51
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+24
25.2%
Richie James run for 24 yds to the Hawa 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-1
25.2%
Dennis Andrews run for a loss of 1 yard to the Hawa 10Similar
Q3 7:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
39.0%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Dennis Andrews for 10 yds for a TD, (Canon Rooker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 21TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 6:2565% → 90%
Q3 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
35.3%
Diocemy Saint Juste run for 3 yds to the Hawa 28Similar
Q3 7:06
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+18
33.8%
Diocemy Saint Juste run for 18 yds to the Hawa 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-8
31.7%
Paul Harris run for 2 yds to the Hawa 48 HAWAII Penalty, Offensive Holding (Dejon Allen) to the Hawa 38Similar
Q3 5:45
1ST & 18
OWN 38
+7
31.5%
Paul Harris run for 7 yds to the Hawa 45Similar
Q3 5:24
2ND & 11
OWN 45
0
30.5%
Dru Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:00
3RD & 11
OWN 45
+8
29.0%
Dru Brown pass complete to Marcus Kemp for 8 yds to the MTnSt 47Similar
Q3 4:30
4TH & 3
OPP 47
+21
30.2%
Makoa Camanse-Stevens pass complete to Ammon Barker for 21 yds to the MTnSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:50
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+4
26.0%
Dru Brown pass complete to Dylan Collie for 4 yds to the MTnSt 22Similar
Q3 3:25
2ND & 6
OPP 22
0
25.7%
Dru Brown run for no gain to the MTnSt 22Similar
Q3 2:41
3RD & 6
OPP 22
+3
26.0%
Dru Brown pass complete to Dylan Collie for 3 yds to the MTnSt 19Similar
Q3 2:02
4TH & 3
OPP 19
+17
28.4%
Dru Brown pass complete to Marcus Kemp for 17 yds to the MTnSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-10
24.2%
HAWAII Penalty, Offensive Holding (John Wa'a) to the MTnSt 12Similar
Q3 1:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 12
+12
10.4%
Dru Brown pass complete to Metuisela 'Unga for 12 yds for a TD, (Rigoberto Sanchez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 22PUNT
8 plays · 4 yds · 0:5015% → 13%
Q3 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
15.3%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Richie James for 3 yds to the MTnSt 25Similar
Q3 0:20
2ND & 7
OWN 25
+16
13.9%
I'Tavius Mathers run for 16 yds to the MTnSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:14
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
15.2%
Brent Stockstill pass incomplete to Richie JamesSimilar
Q3 0:09
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
14.8%
Brent Stockstill pass incomplete to Richie JamesSimilar
Q3 0:05
3RD & 10
OWN 41
0
14.4%
Brent Stockstill pass incomplete to Dennis AndrewsSimilar
Q3 0:05
4TH & 10
OWN 41
-15
14.0%
MIDDLE TENN Penalty, Personal Foul (Dennis Andrews) to the MTnSt 26Similar
Q3 0:00
4TH & 25
OWN 26
0
13.4%
Matt Bonadies punt for 41 yds, fair catch by John Ursua at the Hawa 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 23DOWNS
8 plays · 22 yds · 3:2190% → 92%
Q4 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
10.4%
Diocemy Saint Juste run for 5 yds to the Hawa 38Similar
Q4 14:20
2ND & 5
OWN 38
0
9.2%
Dru Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:13
3RD & 5
OWN 38
+13
9.3%
Diocemy Saint Juste run for 13 yds to the MTnSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:45
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
8.4%
Diocemy Saint Juste run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 47Similar
Q4 12:55
2ND & 8
OPP 47
+1
8.0%
Paul Harris run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 46Similar
Q4 12:10
3RD & 7
OPP 46
-5
7.9%
HAWAII Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (J.R. Hensley) to the Hawa 49Similar
Q4 11:40
3RD & 12
OWN 49
+6
7.3%
Dru Brown pass complete to Makoa Camanse-Stevens for 6 yds to the MTnSt 45Similar
Q4 11:24
4TH & 6
OPP 45
0
7.7%
Dru Brown pass incomplete to John UrsuaSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 24TD
7 plays · 55 yds · 0:559% → 22%
Q4 11:04
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
8.8%
I'Tavius Mathers run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 10:47
2ND & 5
50
-5
7.8%
MIDDLE TENN Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Daniel Stephens) to the MTnSt 45Similar
Q4 10:30
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+22
7.1%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Ty Lee for 22 yds to the Hawa 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:26
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-5
8.4%
MIDDLE TENN Penalty, False Start (Carlos Johnson) to the Hawa 38Similar
Q4 10:26
1ST & 15
OPP 38
+15
7.5%
HAWAII Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Ka'aumoana Gifford) to the Hawa 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:15
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+10
8.4%
HAWAII Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the Hawa 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:09
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
22.4%
Ty Lee 13 Yd pass from Brent Stockstill (Canon Rooker Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 25TD
12 plays · 84 yds · 6:2683% → 97%
Q4 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
17.4%
Dru Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:30
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+4
17.4%
Dru Brown run for 4 yds to the Hawa 20Similar
Q4 9:05
3RD & 6
OWN 20
+12
17.6%
Dru Brown pass complete to John Ursua for 12 yds to the Hawa 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:54
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+7
16.3%
Diocemy Saint Juste run for 7 yds to the Hawa 39Similar
Q4 7:48
2ND & 3
OWN 39
+1
14.0%
Dru Brown pass complete to John Ursua for 1 yd to the Hawa 40Similar
Q4 7:03
3RD & 2
OWN 40
+22
13.9%
Dru Brown pass complete to John Ursua for 22 yds to the MTnSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:23
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+8
11.3%
Diocemy Saint Juste run for 8 yds to the MTnSt 30Similar
Q4 5:39
2ND & 2
OPP 30
+21
10.6%
Paul Harris run for 21 yds to the MTnSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
10.2%
Dru Brown run for no gain to the MTnSt 9Similar
Q4 4:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
9.9%
Diocemy Saint Juste run for 5 yds to the MTnSt 4Similar
Q4 3:31
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
2.6%
Dru Brown pass complete to Dylan Collie for 4 yds for a TD, (Rigoberto Sanchez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 26DOWNS
19 plays · 74 yds · 2:463% → 3%
Q4 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+16
2.9%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to I'Tavius Mathers for 16 yds to the MTnSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:08
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+10
3.0%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Ty Lee for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:53
1ST & 10
50
0
3.0%
Brent Stockstill pass incomplete to Dennis AndrewsSimilar
Q4 2:46
2ND & 10
50
-15
3.0%
Stockstill, Brent pass complete to James, Richie for 30 yards to the HAWAII20, PENALTY MIDDLETENN pass interference (James, Richie) 15 yards to the MIDDLETENN35, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:20
2ND & 25
OWN 35
+2
2.7%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to I'Tavius Mathers for 2 yds to the MTnSt 37Similar
Q4 1:50
3RD & 23
OWN 37
+28
2.3%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Jocquez Bruce for 28 yds to the Hawa 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:41
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
2.9%
Brent Stockstill pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:34
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+4
2.9%
I'Tavius Mathers run for 4 yds to the Hawa 31Similar
Q4 1:15
3RD & 6
OPP 31
+3
2.7%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Ty Lee for 3 yds to the Hawa 28Similar
Q4 0:55
4TH & 3
OPP 28
+25
2.6%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to CJ Windham for 25 yds to the Hawa 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
2.9%
Brent Stockstill pass incomplete to Dennis AndrewsSimilar
Q4 0:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-3
3.0%
I'Tavius Mathers run for a loss of 3 yards to the Hawa 6Similar
Q4 0:38
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
2.2%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Jocquez Bruce for 4 yds to the Hawa 2Similar
Q4 0:34
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
0
2.8%
Brent Stockstill pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 27END OF GAME
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 2
0
1.0%
TEAM run for no gain to the Hawa 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 10:09
Ty Lee 13 Yd pass from Brent Stockstill (Canon Rooker Kick)
+14
TD · Q3 7:51
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Dennis Andrews for 10 yds for a TD, (Canon Rooker KICK)
+13.8
TD · Q3 1:15
Dru Brown pass complete to Metuisela 'Unga for 12 yds for a TD, (Rigoberto Sanchez KICK)
-13.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com