Try the model
FRES

Fresno State 41 at Hawai'i 38

HAW
2019 · Week 10 · Nov 2, 2019 · Aloha Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · HAW
modelHAW aheadFRES aheadconfidence bandkey playHAW scoreFRES score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 6:23 · Cole McDonald run for no gain to the Hawa 30
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+41.0+20.50−20.5−41.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 29Home team on offense−1.8Pregame prior+7.6Score differential−0.4Garbage-time factor−0.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 1:07: Ronnie Rivers run for 4 yds for a TD (Cesar Silva KICK) — FRES win probability +21.7 pts (now 72%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 10:06: Jorge Reyna pass complete to Jared Rice for 26 yds for a TD (Cesar Silva KICK) — FRES win probability +15.9 pts (now 93%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 2:13: Miles Reed run for 3 yds for a TD (Ryan Meskell KICK) — HAW win probability +18.8 pts (now 21%) (top driver: HAW has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 1:08: Chevan Cordeiro run for 10 yds for a TD (Ryan Meskell KICK) — HAW win probability +41.2 pts (now 60%) (top driver: HAW has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 0:00: Cesar Silva 37 yd FG GOOD — FRES win probability +32.1 pts (now 96%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
HAW made the numbers' call on 4 of 7FRES made the numbers' call on 3 of 6
  1. Q1 15:00HAW 4th & 14 at FRES 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.9%−0.1
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:30FRES 4th & 1 at HAW 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 43.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    43.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    42.7%−0.6
    36% to make
    Punt
    42.7%−0.5
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:23HAW 4th & 1 at HAW 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 53.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    54.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    53.5%−0.5
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:01FRES 4th & 10 at HAW 18, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 48.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.4%−0.5
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    47.9%
    79% to make
    Punt
    45.3%−2.6
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:01HAW 4th & 4 at HAW 26, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.3%−0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.4%
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:16FRES 4th & 3 at FRES 42, up 7
    Close callPunted · 49.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.0%−0.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:23FRES 4th & 1 at FRES 34, tied
    Close callPunted · 43.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.9%−0.8
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:35HAW 4th & 9 at FRES 32, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 68.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.5%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    67.8%
    51% to make
    Punt
    66.4%−1.4
    average punt
  9. Q3 13:02HAW 4th & 5 at FRES 26, up 3
    Close callWent for it · 63.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    62.9%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    62.9%
    64% to make
    Punt
    56.8%−6.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 4:19FRES 4th & 4 at HAW 4, down 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 38.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.0%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    37.0%−1.0
    93% to make
    Punt
    25.9%−12.2
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:19HAW 4th & 2 at HAW 33, tied
    Close callPunted · 56.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.2%−0.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 10:01HAW 4th & 6 at FRES 6, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 13.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.5%−0.8
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    13.3%
    91% to make
    Punt
    6.2%−7.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 3:54FRES 4th & 6 at FRES 18, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.1%−0.6
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.7%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
HAW made the numbers' call on 5 of 5FRES made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 6:29FRES Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 9:23HAW Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 3:35HAW Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:06FRES Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:23HAW Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 13:09FRES Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 1:07FRES Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 10:06FRES Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.0%−0.6
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 2:13HAW Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    10.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    8.1%−2.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 1:08HAW Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.3%−4.8
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
HAWDrive 1PUNT
13 plays · 28 yds · 0:0059% → 59%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
58.9%
Cole McDonald pass incomplete to Jared SmartSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
58.9%
Fred Holly III run for 8 yds to the Hawa 33Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+14
58.9%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Jared Smart for 14 yds to the Hawa 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
58.9%
Cole McDonald pass incomplete to Cedric Byrd IISimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+4
58.9%
Miles Reed run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 49Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 49
+6
58.9%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Jason-Matthew Sharsh for 6 yds to the FrsSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-3
58.9%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Jason-Matthew Sharsh for 12 yds to the FrsSt 31 HAWAII Penalty, illegal block (-15 Yards) to the FrsSt 46Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 13
OPP 46
+2
58.9%
Miles Reed run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 44Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 44
0
58.9%
Cole McDonald pass incomplete to Jason-Matthew Sharsh, broken up by Evan WilliamsSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 11
OPP 44
+2
58.9%
Cole McDonald run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 42Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 9
OPP 42
-5
58.9%
HAWAII Penalty, false start (Ikem Okeke) to the FrsSt 47Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 14
OPP 47
0
58.9%
Ben Scruton punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Ronnie Rivers at the FrsSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 2TD
11 plays · 90 yds · 3:4741% → 46%
Q1 10:16
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+15
59.0%
HAWAII Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Cortez Davis) to the FrsSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
58.9%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Zane Pope for 15 yds to the FrsSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:16
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
58.6%
Jorge Reyna run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 43Similar
Q1 10:16
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+6
58.5%
Ronnie Rivers run for 6 yds to the FrsSt 49Similar
Q1 10:16
3RD & 1
OWN 49
+3
58.5%
Jorge Reyna run for 3 yds to the Hawa 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:16
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
58.4%
Ronnie Rivers run for 2 yds to the Hawa 46Similar
Q1 10:16
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+3
58.4%
Ronnie Rivers run for 3 yds to the Hawa 43Similar
Q1 7:30
3RD & 5
OPP 43
+4
57.9%
Jorge Reyna run for 4 yds to the Hawa 39Similar
Q1 7:30
4TH & 1
OPP 39
+3
58.2%
Josh Hokit run for 3 yds to the Hawa 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:29
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+36
54.3%
Jalen Cropper pass complete to Zane Pope for 36 yds for a TD (Cesar Silva KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 3DOWNS
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0055% → 55%
Q1 6:23
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-3
55.2%
Miles Reed run for a loss of 3 yards to the Hawa 18Similar
Q1 6:23
2ND & 13
OWN 18
+3
55.1%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Cedric Byrd II for 3 yds to the Hawa 21Similar
Q1 6:23
3RD & 10
OWN 21
+9
54.8%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Cedric Byrd II for 9 yds to the Hawa 30Similar
Q1 6:23
4TH & 1
OWN 30
0
55.0%
Cole McDonald run for no gain to the Hawa 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 4MISSED FG
6 plays · 12 yds · 1:2847% → 47%
Q1 4:29
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+9
53.1%
Jorge Reyna run for 9 yds to the Hawa 21Similar
Q1 4:29
2ND & 1
OPP 21
+3
53.0%
Ronnie Rivers run for 3 yds to the Hawa 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:29
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
53.0%
Jorge Reyna pass incomplete to Zane Pope, broken up by Cortez DavisSimilar
Q1 4:29
2ND & 10
OPP 18
0
53.1%
Ronnie Rivers run for no gain to the Hawa 18Similar
Q1 4:29
3RD & 10
OPP 18
0
53.4%
Jorge Reyna pass incomplete to Emoryie EdwardsSimilar
Q1 3:01
4TH & 10
OPP 18
+35
53.1%
Cesar Silva 35 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 0:0054% → 53%
Q1 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-10
53.8%
HAWAII Penalty, Offensive holding (Ilm Manning) to the Hawa 10Similar
Q1 3:01
1ST & 20
OWN 10
+15
53.7%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Cedric Byrd II for 15 yds to the Hawa 25Similar
Q1 3:01
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+1
54.0%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Cedric Byrd II for 1 yd to the Hawa 26Similar
Q1 3:01
3RD & 4
OWN 26
-5
53.6%
HAWAII Penalty, false start (J.R. Hensley) to the Hawa 21Similar
Q1 3:01
3RD & 9
OWN 21
+5
53.3%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Jared Smart for 5 yds to the Hawa 26Similar
Q1 3:01
4TH & 4
OWN 26
0
53.0%
Stan Gaudion punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Ronnie Rivers at the FrsSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:2248% → 49%
Q1 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
51.6%
Ronnie Rivers run for 6 yds to the FrsSt 41Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+1
50.7%
Josh Hokit run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 42Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 42
0
50.8%
Jorge Reyna pass incomplete to Jalen CropperSimilar
Q2 14:16
4TH & 3
OWN 42
0
50.9%
Blake Cusick punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Cedric Byrd II at the Hawa 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 7TD
9 plays · 82 yds · 4:4752% → 62%
Q2 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+5
51.7%
Miles Reed run for 5 yds to the Hawa 23Similar
Q2 14:10
2ND & 5
OWN 23
+15
51.9%
Miles Reed run for 15 yds to the Hawa 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+18
52.6%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Jason-Matthew Sharsh for 18 yds to the FrsSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:10
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
53.8%
Cole McDonald run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 41Similar
Q2 14:10
2ND & 7
OPP 41
+1
53.7%
Cole McDonald run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 40Similar
Q2 14:10
3RD & 6
OPP 40
+7
53.6%
Miles Reed run for 7 yds to the FrsSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:10
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+13
54.5%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Jason-Matthew Sharsh for 13 yds to the FrsSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:10
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+14
54.5%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Jason-Matthew Sharsh for 14 yds to the FrsSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
61.7%
Cole McDonald run for 6 yds for a TD (Ryan Meskell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0043% → 43%
Q2 9:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
56.9%
Ronnie Rivers run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 26Similar
Q2 9:23
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+8
57.0%
Jalen Cropper run for 8 yds to the FrsSt 34Similar
Q2 9:23
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
56.2%
Ronnie Rivers run for no gain to the FrsSt 34Similar
Q2 9:23
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
57.2%
Blake Cusick punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Cedric Byrd II at the Hawa 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 9TD
13 plays · 84 yds · 4:2359% → 71%
Q2 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+12
58.8%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Cedric Byrd II for 12 yds to the Hawa 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
58.9%
Cole McDonald pass incomplete to JoJo WardSimilar
Q2 7:58
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+10
58.6%
Miles Reed run for 10 yds to the Hawa 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
59.9%
Cole McDonald pass incomplete to Jared SmartSimilar
Q2 7:58
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+9
59.6%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Jared Smart for 9 yds to the Hawa 47Similar
Q2 7:58
3RD & 1
OWN 47
+11
60.1%
Miles Reed run for 11 yds to the FrsSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:58
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
61.3%
Cole McDonald pass incomplete to Jason-Matthew Sharsh, broken up by Juju HughesSimilar
Q2 7:58
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+5
61.1%
FRESNO ST Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the FrsSt 37Similar
Q2 7:58
2ND & 5
OPP 37
+4
61.2%
Miles Reed run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 33Similar
Q2 7:58
3RD & 1
OPP 33
+32
60.9%
Fred Holly III run for 32 yds to the FrsSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
61.7%
Cole McDonald pass incomplete to Fred Holly IIISimilar
Q2 3:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
70.8%
Fred Holly III run for 1 yd for a TD (Ryan Meskell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 10FUMBLE
2 plays · 8 yds · 0:0032% → 32%
Q2 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
68.4%
Jorge Reyna run for 8 yds to the FrsSt 33 Jorge Reyna fumbled, forced by Kaimana Padello, recovered by Hawa Darius MuasauSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 11FG
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:5571% → 72%
Q2 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+1
70.8%
Miles Reed run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 32Similar
Q2 3:30
2ND & 9
OPP 32
0
70.7%
Cole McDonald pass incomplete to Jared SmartSimilar
Q2 3:30
3RD & 9
OPP 32
0
70.0%
Cole McDonald pass incomplete to Jason-Matthew SharshSimilar
Q2 2:35
4TH & 9
OPP 32
+50
71.8%
Ryan Meskell 50 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 12TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:2928% → 41%
Q2 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
72.3%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Josh Hokit for 14 yds to the FrsSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
71.1%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Jamal Glaspie for 5 yds to the FrsSt 44Similar
Q2 2:35
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+3
70.6%
Josh Hokit run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 47Similar
Q2 1:06
3RD & 2
OWN 47
+53
58.8%
Jalen Cropper run for 53 yds for a TD (Cesar Silva KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 13TD
5 plays · 69 yds · 0:3763% → 75%
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
62.8%
Cole McDonald pass incomplete to Cedric Byrd IISimilar
Q2 1:00
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+11
62.5%
Fred Holly III run for 11 yds to the Hawa 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+10
64.8%
Cole McDonald pass complete to JoJo Ward for 10 yds to the FrsSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:23
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+48
74.7%
Cole McDonald pass complete to JoJo Ward for 48 yds for a TD (Ryan Meskell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 14MISSED FG
7 plays · 26 yds · 0:1828% → 29%
Q2 0:18
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
72.2%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Ronnie Rivers for 5 yds to the FrsSt 41Similar
Q2 0:18
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+6
71.0%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Zane Pope for 6 yds to the FrsSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:18
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+15
71.2%
HAWAII Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Cortez Davis) to the Hawa 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+56
70.9%
Cesar Silva 56 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 15TD
5 plays · 67 yds · 1:4428% → 42%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
72.3%
Ronnie Rivers run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 34Similar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 9
OWN 34
+17
72.4%
Jorge Reyna run for 17 yds to the Hawa 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
70.7%
Josh Hokit run for 5 yds to the Hawa 44Similar
Q3 13:09
2ND & 5
OPP 44
+44
58.4%
Ronnie Rivers run for 44 yds for a TD (Cesar Silva KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 16DOWNS
10 plays · 41 yds · 0:0064% → 65%
Q3 13:02
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
64.3%
Fred Holly III run for 5 yds to the Hawa 38Similar
Q3 13:02
2ND & 5
OWN 38
+15
65.9%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Jason-Matthew Sharsh for 15 yds to the FrsSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:02
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+16
66.8%
Fred Holly III run for 16 yds to the FrsSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:02
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
67.5%
Cole McDonald pass incomplete to Jason-Matthew Sharsh, broken up by Arron MosbySimilar
Q3 13:02
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+5
67.4%
FRESNO ST Penalty, Defensive offside (Keiti Iakopo) to the FrsSt 26Similar
Q3 13:02
2ND & 5
OPP 26
0
67.5%
Cole McDonald pass incomplete to Nick MardnerSimilar
Q3 13:02
3RD & 5
OPP 26
-5
66.4%
HAWAII Penalty, false start (Ilm Manning) to the FrsSt 31Similar
Q3 13:02
3RD & 10
OPP 31
+5
65.9%
Cole McDonald run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 26Similar
Q3 13:02
4TH & 5
OPP 26
0
64.5%
Cole McDonald pass incomplete to Cedric Byrd IISimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 17FG
16 plays · 70 yds · 5:5638% → 48%
Q3 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+1
62.4%
Jorge Reyna run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 27Similar
Q3 10:15
2ND & 9
OWN 27
+5
62.6%
HAWAII Penalty, (5 Yards) to the FrsSt 32Similar
Q3 10:15
2ND & 4
OWN 32
-10
60.9%
FRESNO ST Penalty, illegal block (Alex Akingbulu) to the FrsSt 22Similar
Q3 10:15
2ND & 14
OWN 22
0
63.1%
Jorge Reyna pass incomplete to Jalen CropperSimilar
Q3 10:15
3RD & 14
OWN 22
+17
64.3%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Jalen Cropper for 17 yds to the FrsSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
60.5%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Zane Pope for 2 yds to the FrsSt 41Similar
Q3 10:15
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+4
60.1%
Ronnie Rivers run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 45Similar
Q3 10:15
3RD & 4
OWN 45
+14
59.8%
HAWAII Penalty, illegal block (Jeremiah Pritchard) to the Hawa 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:15
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+18
58.9%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Ronnie Rivers for 18 yds to the Hawa 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:15
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+2
57.3%
Ronnie Rivers run for 2 yds to the Hawa 21Similar
Q3 10:15
2ND & 8
OPP 21
+3
57.3%
Josh Hokit run for 3 yds to the Hawa 18Similar
Q3 10:15
3RD & 5
OPP 18
+11
58.7%
HAWAII Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Kai Kaneshiro) to the Hawa 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
57.3%
Jorge Reyna pass incomplete to Jalen Cropper, broken up by Kaimana PadelloSimilar
Q3 10:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
57.3%
Ronnie Rivers run for 3 yds to the Hawa 4Similar
Q3 10:15
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
58.7%
Jorge Reyna pass incomplete to Zane PopeSimilar
Q3 4:19
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+22
52.4%
Cesar Silva 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0058% → 57%
Q3 4:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
58.0%
Cole McDonald pass incomplete to Nick Mardner, broken up by Randy JordanSimilar
Q3 4:19
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
57.7%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Jared Smart for 8 yds to the Hawa 33Similar
Q3 4:19
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
58.4%
Cole McDonald pass incomplete to Jason-Matthew SharshSimilar
Q3 4:19
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
56.5%
Stan Gaudion punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Ronnie Rivers at the FrsSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 19TD
6 plays · 62 yds · 2:2948% → 72%
Q3 3:36
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
52.2%
Jorge Reyna pass incomplete to Emoryie EdwardsSimilar
Q3 3:36
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+48
52.4%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Jalen Cropper for 48 yds to the Hawa 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:36
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+5
48.0%
Ronnie Rivers run for 5 yds to the Hawa 9Similar
Q3 3:36
2ND & 5
OPP 9
-1
48.0%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Zane Pope for a loss of 1 yard to the Hawa 10Similar
Q3 3:36
3RD & 6
OPP 10
+6
49.8%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Jared Rice for 6 yds to the Hawa 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
28.0%
Ronnie Rivers run for 4 yds for a TD (Cesar Silva KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 20INT
8 plays · 24 yds · 1:0136% → 36%
Q3 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
35.7%
Miles Reed run for 6 yds to the Hawa 31Similar
Q3 1:01
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+4
37.6%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Jason-Matthew Sharsh for 4 yds to the Hawa 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
33.5%
Cole McDonald pass incomplete to Jared SmartSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+4
33.2%
Miles Reed run for 4 yds to the Hawa 39Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+10
33.3%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Cedric Byrd II for 10 yds to the Hawa 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
36.7%
Cole McDonald pass incomplete to JoJo WardSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 49
0
36.1%
Cole McDonald pass intercepted Evan Williams return for no gain to the FrsSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 21TD
7 plays · 58 yds · 3:2575% → 93%
Q4 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-10
25.1%
FRESNO ST Penalty, Offensive holding (Tyrone Sampson Jr.) to the FrsSt 32Similar
Q4 13:31
1ST & 20
OWN 32
+11
27.9%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Emoryie Edwards for 11 yds to the FrsSt 43Similar
Q4 13:31
2ND & 9
OWN 43
+15
25.2%
Jorge Reyna run for 15 yds to the Hawa 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:31
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
24.2%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Derrion Grim for 5 yds to the Hawa 37Similar
Q4 13:31
2ND & 5
OPP 37
+8
24.0%
Josh Hokit run for 8 yds to the Hawa 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:31
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+3
23.4%
Josh Hokit run for 3 yds to the Hawa 26Similar
Q4 10:06
2ND & 7
OPP 26
+26
7.5%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Jared Rice for 26 yds for a TD (Cesar Silva KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 22DOWNS
12 plays · 71 yds · 0:0011% → 13%
Q4 10:01
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
11.0%
Cole McDonald pass incomplete to JoJo WardSimilar
Q4 10:01
2ND & 10
OWN 26
-5
10.7%
HAWAII Penalty, false start (JoJo Ward) to the Hawa 21Similar
Q4 10:01
2ND & 15
OWN 21
+5
10.6%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Lincoln Victor for 5 yds to the Hawa 26Similar
Q4 10:01
3RD & 10
OWN 26
+44
10.4%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Cedric Byrd II for 44 yds to the FrsSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:01
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
14.5%
Cole McDonald pass incomplete to Jared SmartSimilar
Q4 10:01
2ND & 10
OPP 30
0
14.1%
Cole McDonald pass incomplete to Nick MardnerSimilar
Q4 10:01
3RD & 10
OPP 30
+26
13.0%
Chevan Cordeiro run for 26 yds to the FrsSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-8
14.7%
Chevan Cordeiro sacked by Justin Rice for a loss of 8 yards to the FrsSt 12Similar
Q4 10:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 12
+6
14.1%
Miles Reed run for 6 yds to the FrsSt 6Similar
Q4 10:01
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
13.7%
Chevan Cordeiro pass incomplete to Cedric Byrd II, broken up by Wylan FreeSimilar
Q4 10:01
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
13.2%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Cedric Byrd II for 3 yds to the FrsSt 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 23PUNT
10 plays · 15 yds · 2:3094% → 97%
Q4 6:24
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+1
5.8%
Ronnie Rivers run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 4Similar
Q4 6:24
2ND & 9
OWN 4
+2
5.8%
Ronnie Rivers run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 6Similar
Q4 6:24
3RD & 7
OWN 6
+8
6.0%
Jorge Reyna run for 8 yds to the FrsSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:24
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+3
5.8%
Ronnie Rivers run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 17Similar
Q4 4:11
2ND & 7
OWN 17
-3
4.4%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Jalen Cropper for a loss of 3 yards to the FrsSt 14Similar
Q4 4:03
3RD & 10
OWN 14
+4
4.6%
Josh Hokit run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 18Similar
Q4 3:54
4TH & 6
OWN 18
+11
3.5%
Blake Cusick punt for 41 yds , Cedric Byrd II returns for 11 yds to the Hawa 29 HAWAII Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Justice Augafa) to the Hawa 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 24TD
6 plays · 63 yds · 1:312% → 21%
Q4 3:44
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
1.7%
Chevan Cordeiro pass incomplete to JoJo WardSimilar
Q4 3:44
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+5
1.7%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Jared Smart for 5 yds to the Hawa 42Similar
Q4 3:44
3RD & 5
OWN 42
+5
1.8%
Chevan Cordeiro run for 5 yds to the Hawa 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:44
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
1.8%
Chevan Cordeiro pass incomplete to JoJo WardSimilar
Q4 3:44
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+50
1.8%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Nick Mardner for 50 yds to the FrsSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
20.6%
Miles Reed run for 3 yds for a TD (Ryan Meskell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 26TD
6 plays · 49 yds · 1:0416% → 60%
Q4 2:12
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
16.1%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to JoJo Ward for 4 yds to the FrsSt 45Similar
Q4 2:12
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+11
16.8%
Fred Holly III run for 11 yds to the FrsSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:12
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+15
18.6%
FRESNO ST Penalty, roughing passer (Keiti Iakopo) to the FrsSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:12
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
19.7%
Chevan Cordeiro pass incomplete to Jared SmartSimilar
Q4 2:12
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+9
19.1%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to JoJo Ward for 9 yds to the FrsSt 10Similar
Q4 1:08
3RD & 1
OPP 10
+10
60.2%
Chevan Cordeiro run for 10 yds for a TD (Ryan Meskell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 27FG
12 plays · 55 yds · 1:0853% → 96%
Q4 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
46.6%
Jorge Reyna run for 17 yds to the FrsSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
41.6%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Jared Rice for 5 yds to the FrsSt 47Similar
Q4 1:08
2ND & 5
OWN 47
+9
40.1%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Jared Rice for 9 yds to the Hawa 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:08
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
38.4%
Jorge Reyna pass incomplete to Jalen Cropper, broken up by Rojesterman Farris IISimilar
Q4 1:08
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+11
39.2%
Jorge Reyna run for 11 yds to the Hawa 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:08
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
35.8%
Jorge Reyna pass incomplete to Emoryie EdwardsSimilar
Q4 1:08
2ND & 10
OPP 33
0
36.1%
Jorge Reyna pass incomplete to Emoryie EdwardsSimilar
Q4 0:10
3RD & 10
OPP 33
+13
40.6%
Ronnie Rivers run for 13 yds to the Hawa 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+37
4.2%
Cesar Silva 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:08
Chevan Cordeiro run for 10 yds for a TD (Ryan Meskell KICK)
+41.2
FG · Q4 0:00
Cesar Silva 37 yd FG GOOD
-32.1
TD · Q3 1:07
Ronnie Rivers run for 4 yds for a TD (Cesar Silva KICK)
-21.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com