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CARK

Central Arkansas 16 at Hawai'i 35

HAW
2019 · Week 4 · Sep 21, 2019 · Aloha Stadium
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Win probability · HAW
modelHAW aheadCARK aheadconfidence bandkey playHAW scoreCARK score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 10:00 · Fred Holly III run for 5 yds to the Hawa 45 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 147Pregame prior+7.1Home team on offense+21.7Score differential+7.9Garbage-time factor+12.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.9Blowout margin−1.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:28: Cole McDonald pass complete to Jared Smart for 16 yds for a TD, (Ryan Meskell KICK) — HAW win probability +3.5 pts (now 92%) (top driver: HAW has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 7:53: Cole McDonald pass complete to Cedric Byrd II for 13 yds for a TD, (Ryan Meskell KICK) — HAW win probability +3.9 pts (now 97%) (top driver: HAW has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 4:14: Carlos Blackman pass complete to Sam Camargo for 4 yds for a TD, (Hayden Ray PAT BLOCKED) — CARK win probability +3.8 pts (now 6%) (top driver: CARK has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 12:18: Carlos Blackman run for 23 yds for a TD, (Hayden Ray KICK) — CARK win probability +7.0 pts (now 12%) (top driver: CARK has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 3:27: Cole McDonald pass complete to Lincoln Victor for 11 yds for a TD, (Ryan Meskell KICK) — HAW win probability +4.6 pts (now 99%) (top driver: HAW has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
HAW made the numbers' call on 3 of 3CARK made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
  1. Q1 8:48CARK 4th & 2 at midfield, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.0%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    15.9%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:42CARK 4th & 7 at CARK 24, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.3%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:52CARK 4th & 8 at CARK 27, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.7%−0.4
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.1%
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:28CARK 4th & 14 at CARK 46, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.9%−0.6
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.5%
    average punt
  5. Q2 4:09HAW 4th & 6 at HAW 27, up 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.7%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.9%
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:47CARK 4th & 7 at HAW 42, down 22
    Close callPunted · 5.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.1%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    5.1%−<0.1
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    5.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:10CARK 4th & 16 at HAW 17, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 4.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.0%−0.7
    14% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    4.7%
    80% to make
    Punt
    3.3%−1.4
    average punt
  8. Q3 15:00CARK 4th & 2 at CARK 33, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.2%−0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.3%
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:53CARK 4th & 5 at HAW 30, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.6%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    6.5%−0.1
    56% to make
    Punt
    5.6%−1.0
    average punt
  10. Q3 8:36HAW 4th & 25 at HAW 45, up 19
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.8%−1.7
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.5%
    average punt
  11. Q4 12:02CARK 4th & 15 at CARK 47, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.5%−0.8
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.3%
    average punt
  12. Q4 10:00HAW 4th & 1 at HAW 40, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 93.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    93.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    91.7%−1.9
    average punt
  13. Q4 0:32CARK 4th & 4 at HAW 13, down 19
    Close callWent for it · 1.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.4%−0.1
    46% to convert
    Field goal
    1.6%
    85% to make
    Punt
    0.7%−0.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
HAW made the numbers' call on 4 of 5CARK made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 8:48HAW Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:52HAW Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 14:28HAW Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 7:53HAW Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 4:14CARK Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    5.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 12:18CARK Touchdown, down 13 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    6.5%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.6%
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 3:27HAW Touchdown, up 18 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.4%−0.4
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.8%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
HAWDrive 1FUMBLE
7 plays · 44 yds · 0:0086% → 86%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+22
86.2%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Jared Smart for 22 yds to the Hawa 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
86.2%
Miles Reed run for 1 yd to the Hawa 48Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 48
+8
86.2%
Miles Reed run for 8 yds to the CArk 44Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 44
+2
86.2%
Miles Reed run for 2 yds to the CArk 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+9
86.2%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Jared Smart for 9 yds to the CArk 33Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 33
+2
86.2%
Miles Reed run for 2 yds to the CArk 31 Miles Reed fumbled, recovered by CArk Hunter ToomeySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CARKDrive 2INT TD
6 plays · 19 yds · 3:0415% → 15%
Q1 11:52
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+9
85.3%
Carlos Blackman run for 9 yds to the CArk 40Similar
Q1 11:52
2ND & 1
OWN 40
+2
85.2%
Carlos Blackman run for 2 yds to the CArk 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:52
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
85.2%
Carlos Blackman run for 1 yd to the CArk 43Similar
Q1 11:52
2ND & 9
OWN 43
0
85.2%
Breylin Smith pass incomplete to Lujuan Winningham, broken up by Rojesterman Farris IISimilar
Q1 11:52
3RD & 9
OWN 43
+7
85.3%
Breylin Smith pass complete to Carlos Blackman for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 8:48
4TH & 2
50
+55
85.4%
Breylin Smith pass intercepted for a TD Kai Kaneshiro return for 55 yds for a TD, (Ryan Meskell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CARKDrive 3PUNT
8 plays · 19 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q1 8:42
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+4
85.6%
Carlos Blackman run for 4 yds to the CArk 9Similar
Q1 8:42
2ND & 6
OWN 9
+3
85.6%
Carlos Blackman run for 3 yds to the CArk 12Similar
Q1 8:42
3RD & 3
OWN 12
+9
85.7%
Breylin Smith pass complete to Tyler Hudson for 9 yds to the CArk 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:42
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
85.5%
Breylin Smith pass incomplete to Dwight BlakeySimilar
Q1 8:42
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+3
85.6%
Carlos Blackman run for 3 yds to the CArk 24Similar
Q1 8:42
3RD & 7
OWN 24
0
85.7%
Breylin Smith pass incomplete to Carlos BlackmanSimilar
Q1 8:42
4TH & 7
OWN 24
+1
85.7%
Taylor Wallace punt for 40 yds , Jared Smart returns for 1 yd to the Hawa 37 Jared Smart fumbled, recovered by Hawa Jared SmartSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 4TD
7 plays · 63 yds · 4:0186% → 88%
Q1 5:53
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+11
85.5%
Cole McDonald pass complete to JoJo Ward for 11 yds to the Hawa 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:53
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+21
85.7%
Cole McDonald run for 21 yds to the CArk 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:53
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+1
85.8%
Fred Holly III run for 1 yd to the CArk 30Similar
Q1 5:53
2ND & 9
OPP 30
+10
85.8%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Jared Smart for 10 yds to the CArk 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:53
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+9
85.8%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Jason-Matthew Sharsh for 9 yds to the CArk 11Similar
Q1 5:53
2ND & 1
OPP 11
+6
85.8%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Lincoln Victor for 6 yds to the CArk 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
88.1%
Cole McDonald pass complete to JoJo Ward for 5 yds for a TD, (Ryan Meskell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CARKDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q1 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
87.0%
Breylin Smith pass incomplete to Lujuan WinninghamSimilar
Q1 1:52
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
87.0%
Breylin Smith pass complete to Kylan Robinson for 2 yds to the CArk 27Similar
Q1 1:52
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
87.1%
Breylin Smith pass incomplete to Lujuan WinninghamSimilar
Q1 1:52
4TH & 8
OWN 27
+17
87.2%
Taylor Wallace punt for 32 yds CENTRAL ARK Penalty, kick catching interference (-15 Yards) to the CArk 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 6TD
5 plays · 44 yds · 1:2388% → 92%
Q1 0:51
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
88.3%
CENTRAL ARK Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the CArk 39Similar
Q1 0:51
1ST & 5
OPP 39
+10
88.3%
Fred Holly III run for 10 yds to the CArk 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
88.4%
Cole McDonald pass incomplete to Jared Smart, broken up by Trai MosleySimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+13
88.4%
Cole McDonald run for 13 yds to the CArk 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:28
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
91.9%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Jared Smart for 16 yds for a TD, (Ryan Meskell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CARKDrive 7PUNT
10 plays · 21 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q2 14:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
91.6%
Breylin Smith pass incomplete to Kierre CrossleySimilar
Q2 14:28
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+13
91.7%
Breylin Smith pass complete to Luke Ross for 13 yds to the CArk 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:28
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
91.4%
Breylin Smith pass complete to Lujuan Winningham for 8 yds to the CArk 46Similar
Q2 14:28
2ND & 2
OWN 46
+4
91.2%
Breylin Smith pass complete to Lujuan Winningham for 4 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:28
1ST & 10
50
-5
91.2%
CENTRAL ARK Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the CArk 45Similar
Q2 14:28
1ST & 15
OWN 45
0
91.6%
Breylin Smith pass incomplete to Lujuan Winningham, broken up by Cortez DavisSimilar
Q2 14:28
2ND & 15
OWN 45
0
91.7%
Breylin Smith pass incomplete to Michael FoxSimilar
Q2 14:28
3RD & 15
OWN 45
+1
91.7%
Breylin Smith run for 1 yd to the CArk 46Similar
Q2 14:28
4TH & 14
OWN 46
0
91.8%
Taylor Wallace punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Jared Smart at the Hawa 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 8TD
7 plays · 77 yds · 3:2993% → 97%
Q2 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+21
92.8%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Jason-Matthew Sharsh for 21 yds to the Hawa 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
93.1%
Miles Reed run for 1 yd to the Hawa 45Similar
Q2 11:22
2ND & 9
OWN 45
+3
93.1%
Miles Reed run for 3 yds to the Hawa 48Similar
Q2 11:22
3RD & 6
OWN 48
+9
92.9%
Cole McDonald pass complete to JoJo Ward for 9 yds to the CArk 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:22
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+22
93.1%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Jared Smart for 22 yds to the CArk 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:22
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+8
93.1%
Cole McDonald run for 8 yds to the CArk 13Similar
Q2 7:53
2ND & 2
OPP 13
+13
97.0%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Cedric Byrd II for 13 yds for a TD, (Ryan Meskell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CARKDrive 9TD
11 plays · 67 yds · 3:313% → 6%
Q2 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+16
97.5%
Breylin Smith pass complete to Joshua Nix for 16 yds to the CArk 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
97.4%
Carlos Blackman run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 7:45
2ND & 9
50
-1
97.4%
Breylin Smith pass complete to Christian Richmond for a loss of 1 yard to the CArk 49Similar
Q2 7:45
3RD & 10
OWN 49
+42
97.5%
Carlos Blackman run for 42 yds to the Hawa 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+6
98.0%
Carlos Blackman run for 6 yds to the Hawa 3Similar
Q2 5:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-1
97.6%
Carlos Blackman run for a loss of 1 yard to the Hawa 4Similar
Q2 4:14
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
94.3%
Carlos Blackman pass complete to Sam Camargo for 4 yds for a TD, (Hayden Ray PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q2 4:09
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+9
96.0%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Cedric Byrd II for 9 yds to the Hawa 32Similar
Q2 4:09
2ND & 1
OWN 32
0
96.0%
Fred Holly III run for no gain to the Hawa 32Similar
Q2 4:09
3RD & 1
OWN 32
-5
95.9%
HAWAII Penalty, false start (Alesana Sunia) to the Hawa 27Similar
Q2 4:09
3RD & 6
OWN 27
0
95.9%
Cole McDonald pass incomplete to Jason-Matthew SharshSimilar
Q2 4:09
4TH & 6
OWN 27
0
95.6%
Stan Gaudion punt for 39 yds, downed at the CArk 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CARKDrive 11PUNT
11 plays · 24 yds · 1:375% → 3%
Q2 2:24
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
95.0%
Breylin Smith pass incomplete to Dwight Blakey, broken up by Mason VegaSimilar
Q2 2:24
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+1
95.2%
Breylin Smith pass complete to Carlos Blackman for 1 yd to the CArk 35Similar
Q2 2:09
3RD & 9
OWN 35
+20
95.4%
Breylin Smith pass complete to Carlos Blackman for 20 yds to the Hawa 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:09
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
94.7%
Breylin Smith pass incomplete to Tyler HudsonSimilar
Q2 2:09
2ND & 10
OPP 45
-5
94.9%
CENTRAL ARK Penalty, ineligible downfield on pass (Joshua Nix) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 1:20
2ND & 15
50
+4
96.7%
Carlos Blackman run for 4 yds to the Hawa 46Similar
Q2 1:20
3RD & 11
OPP 46
+4
96.6%
Carlos Blackman run for 4 yds to the Hawa 42Similar
Q2 0:47
4TH & 7
OPP 42
+1
96.6%
Taylor Wallace punt for 32 yds , Jared Smart returns for 1 yd to the Hawa 11 Jared Smart fumbled, recovered by CArk D'erek FernandezSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CARKDrive 12FG
4 plays · -6 yds · 0:264% → 5%
Q2 0:36
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-6
96.0%
Breylin Smith sacked by Kaimana Padello for a loss of 6 yards to the Hawa 17 Breylin Smith fumbled, recovered by CArk Christian Richmond , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 0:36
2ND & 16
OPP 17
0
96.9%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:36
3RD & 16
OPP 17
0
97.1%
Breylin Smith pass incomplete to Carlos BlackmanSimilar
Q2 0:10
4TH & 16
OPP 17
+35
94.7%
Hayden Ray 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 13END OF HALF
3 plays · -2 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q2 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
95.7%
Cole McDonald pass incomplete to Jason-Matthew Sharsh, broken up by Leandre RucksSimilar
Q2 0:10
2ND & 10
OWN 29
-2
95.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Hawa 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CARKDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
92.3%
Kierre Crossley run for no gain to the CArk 25Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
92.5%
Kierre Crossley run for no gain to the CArk 25Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+8
92.5%
Breylin Smith pass complete to Michael Fox for 8 yds to the CArk 33Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
92.2%
Taylor Wallace punt for 39 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 15INT
6 plays · 35 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q3 13:03
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+12
95.2%
Miles Reed run for 12 yds to the Hawa 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:03
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
95.4%
Cole McDonald pass incomplete to Cedric Byrd IISimilar
Q3 13:03
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
95.4%
Cole McDonald pass incomplete to JoJo WardSimilar
Q3 13:03
3RD & 10
OWN 40
+17
95.2%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Jared Smart for 17 yds to the CArk 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:03
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+6
95.4%
Miles Reed run for 6 yds to the CArk 37Similar
Q3 13:03
2ND & 4
OPP 37
0
95.4%
Cole McDonald pass intercepted, touchback. Deandre Lamont return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CARKDrive 16DOWNS
9 plays · 50 yds · 0:006% → 7%
Q3 10:53
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
93.6%
Breylin Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:53
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+2
93.7%
Breylin Smith pass complete to Joshua Nix for 2 yds to the CArk 22Similar
Q3 10:53
3RD & 8
OWN 22
0
93.7%
Breylin Smith pass incomplete to Lujuan WinninghamSimilar
Q3 10:53
4TH & 8
OWN 22
+15
93.8%
HAWAII Penalty, roughing the kicker (James Green III) to the CArk 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:53
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+28
93.2%
Carlos Blackman run for 28 yds to the Hawa 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:53
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
92.5%
Breylin Smith pass incomplete to Lujuan WinninghamSimilar
Q3 10:53
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+5
92.5%
Breylin Smith pass complete to Christian Richmond for 5 yds to the Hawa 30Similar
Q3 10:53
3RD & 5
OPP 30
0
92.7%
Breylin Smith pass incomplete to Christian Richmond, broken up by Derek ThomasSimilar
Q3 10:53
4TH & 5
OPP 30
0
93.1%
Breylin Smith pass incomplete to Tyler Hudson, broken up by Paul ScottSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 17PUNT
11 plays · 15 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q3 8:36
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
96.1%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Cedric Byrd II for 5 yds to the Hawa 35Similar
Q3 8:36
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+4
96.1%
Miles Reed run for 4 yds to the Hawa 39Similar
Q3 8:36
3RD & 1
OWN 39
-5
96.2%
HAWAII Penalty, false start (Ilm Manning) to the Hawa 34Similar
Q3 8:36
3RD & 6
OWN 34
+8
96.1%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Cedric Byrd II for 8 yds to the Hawa 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:36
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+18
96.3%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Jason-Matthew Sharsh for 18 yds to the CArk 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:36
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-10
96.3%
HAWAII Penalty, Offensive holding (Alesana Sunia) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 8:36
1ST & 20
50
-11
96.2%
Cole McDonald sacked by Caden Brown for a loss of 11 yards to the Hawa 39Similar
Q3 8:36
2ND & 31
OWN 39
-10
96.1%
HAWAII Penalty, Offensive holding (Alesana Sunia) to the Hawa 29Similar
Q3 8:36
2ND & 41
OWN 29
+1
96.0%
Fred Holly III run for 1 yd to the Hawa 30Similar
Q3 8:36
3RD & 40
OWN 30
+15
95.9%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Jason-Matthew Sharsh for 15 yds to the Hawa 45Similar
Q3 8:36
4TH & 25
OWN 45
0
95.7%
Stan Gaudion punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the CArk 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CARKDrive 18TD
10 plays · 82 yds · 5:275% → 12%
Q3 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+9
95.2%
Breylin Smith pass complete to Lujuan Winningham for 9 yds to the CArk 27Similar
Q3 2:45
2ND & 1
OWN 27
+3
95.0%
Kierre Crossley run for 3 yds to the CArk 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-1
95.1%
Breylin Smith pass complete to Lujuan Winningham for a loss of 1 yard to the CArk 29Similar
Q3 2:45
2ND & 11
OWN 29
+12
95.3%
Breylin Smith pass complete to Michael Fox for 12 yds to the CArk 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
95.0%
Breylin Smith pass complete to Luke Ross for 5 yds to the CArk 46Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+9
95.8%
Carlos Blackman run for 9 yds to the Hawa 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+8
95.7%
Breylin Smith pass complete to Christian Richmond for 8 yds to the Hawa 37Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 37
+7
95.5%
Carlos Blackman run for 7 yds to the Hawa 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+7
95.3%
Breylin Smith pass complete to Joshua Nix for 7 yds to the Hawa 23Similar
Q4 12:18
2ND & 3
OPP 23
+23
88.3%
Carlos Blackman run for 23 yds for a TD, (Hayden Ray KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 19FUMBLE
2 plays · 21 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q4 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+21
94.4%
Miles Reed run for 21 yds to the CArk 35 Miles Reed fumbled, forced by Juan Jackson, recovered by CArk Isaiah MacklinSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CARKDrive 20PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 0:0010% → 9%
Q4 12:02
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
90.2%
Breylin Smith pass complete to Lujuan Winningham for 9 yds to the CArk 44Similar
Q4 12:02
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+8
89.3%
Breylin Smith pass complete to Lujuan Winningham for 8 yds to the Hawa 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:02
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
89.4%
Breylin Smith pass incomplete to Christian RichmondSimilar
Q4 12:02
2ND & 10
OPP 48
-5
89.6%
Breylin Smith pass complete to Lujuan Winningham for 5 yds to the CArk 43 CENTRAL ARK Penalty, Offensive holding (Luke Ross) to the CArk 47Similar
Q4 12:02
2ND & 15
OWN 47
0
91.0%
Breylin Smith pass incomplete to Sam CamargoSimilar
Q4 12:02
3RD & 15
OWN 47
0
91.2%
Breylin Smith pass incomplete to Michael FoxSimilar
Q4 12:02
4TH & 15
OWN 47
0
91.4%
Taylor Wallace punt for 42 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 21TD
12 plays · 89 yds · 6:3394% → 99%
Q4 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+7
93.7%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Jared Smart for 7 yds to the Hawa 18Similar
Q4 10:00
2ND & 3
OWN 18
+3
94.0%
Fred Holly III run for 3 yds to the Hawa 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+10
93.9%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Cedric Byrd II for 10 yds to the Hawa 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
94.1%
Cole McDonald pass incomplete to Cedric Byrd IISimilar
Q4 10:00
2ND & 10
OWN 31
0
94.0%
Fred Holly III run for no gain to the Hawa 31Similar
Q4 10:00
3RD & 10
OWN 31
+9
93.7%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Cedric Byrd II for 9 yds to the Hawa 40Similar
Q4 10:00
4TH & 1
OWN 40
+5
93.5%
Fred Holly III run for 5 yds to the Hawa 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
94.4%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Jason-Matthew Sharsh for 4 yds to the Hawa 49Similar
Q4 10:00
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+18
94.4%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Jared Smart for 18 yds to the CArk 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+6
94.5%
Fred Holly III run for 6 yds to the CArk 27Similar
Q4 10:00
2ND & 4
OPP 27
+16
94.5%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Lincoln Victor for 16 yds to the CArk 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:27
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
99.0%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Lincoln Victor for 11 yds for a TD, (Ryan Meskell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CARKDrive 22DOWNS
15 plays · 47 yds · 2:482% → 2%
Q4 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
98.2%
BeSean McCray run for 1 yd to the CArk 41Similar
Q4 3:20
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+8
98.2%
Breylin Smith pass complete to Dwight Blakey for 8 yds to the CArk 49Similar
Q4 3:20
3RD & 1
OWN 49
+2
98.2%
Carlos Blackman run for 2 yds to the Hawa 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:20
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
98.2%
Breylin Smith pass complete to Luke Ross for 2 yds to the Hawa 47Similar
Q4 3:20
2ND & 8
OPP 47
0
98.2%
Breylin Smith pass incomplete to Tyler Hudson, broken up by Rojesterman Farris IISimilar
Q4 3:20
3RD & 8
OPP 47
+15
98.2%
HAWAII Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Akil Francisco) to the Hawa 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:20
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+7
97.8%
Breylin Smith pass complete to Tyler Hudson for 7 yds to the Hawa 25Similar
Q4 3:20
2ND & 3
OPP 25
+6
97.7%
Breylin Smith pass complete to Carlos Blackman for 6 yds to the Hawa 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:20
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
97.7%
Breylin Smith pass incomplete to Lujuan Winningham, broken up by Akil FranciscoSimilar
Q4 3:20
2ND & 10
OPP 19
-5
97.8%
Breylin Smith pass complete to Carlos Blackman for a loss of 5 yards to the Hawa 24Similar
Q4 0:39
3RD & 15
OPP 24
+11
98.3%
Breylin Smith pass complete to Lujuan Winningham for 11 yds to the Hawa 13Similar
Q4 0:32
4TH & 4
OPP 13
0
98.3%
Breylin Smith pass incomplete to Dwight Blakey, broken up by Donovan DaltonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 23END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 0:28
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-2
99.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Hawa 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 12:18
Carlos Blackman run for 23 yds for a TD, (Hayden Ray KICK)
-7
TD · Q4 3:27
Cole McDonald pass complete to Lincoln Victor for 11 yds for a TD, (Ryan Meskell KICK)
+4.6
TD · Q2 7:53
Cole McDonald pass complete to Cedric Byrd II for 13 yds for a TD, (Ryan Meskell KICK)
+3.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com