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ORST

Oregon State 28 at Hawai'i 31

HAW
2019 · Week 2 · Sep 7, 2019 · Aloha Stadium
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Win probability · HAW
modelHAW aheadORST aheadconfidence bandkey playHAW scoreORST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 15:00 · Miles Reed run for 11 yds to the OrgSt 43 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+22.5+11.30−11.3−22.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 7Pregame prior+16.7Home team on offense+0.0Garbage-time factor+0.0Score differential+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 12:42: Jake Luton pass complete to Isaiah Hodgins for 13 yds for a TD, (Jordan Choukair KICK) — ORST win probability +8.7 pts (now 51%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 2:25: Artavis Pierce run for 25 yds for a TD, (Jordan Choukair KICK) — ORST win probability +14.5 pts (now 63%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:12: Cole McDonald pass complete to JoJo Ward for 5 yds for a TD, (Ryan Meskell KICK) — HAW win probability +13.3 pts (now 55%) (top driver: HAW has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 7:05: Cole McDonald pass complete to JoJo Ward for 29 yds for a TD, (Ryan Meskell KICK) — HAW win probability +17.1 pts (now 67%) (top driver: HAW has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 2:17: Ryan Meskell 28 yd FG GOOD — HAW win probability +22.2 pts (now 85%) (top driver: HAW has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
HAW made the numbers' call on 9 of 10ORST made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
  1. Q1 15:00HAW 4th & 1 at HAW 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 69.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    69.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    69.2%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:08HAW 4th & 7 at ORST 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 68.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.8%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    68.8%
    58% to make
    Punt
    68.3%−0.5
    average punt
  3. Q2 15:00ORST 4th & 5 at HAW 32, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 39.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    39.6%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    39.4%−0.2
    51% to make
    Punt
    38.9%−0.7
    average punt
  4. Q2 10:37ORST 4th & 9 at ORST 37, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.5%−0.6
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.2%
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:55HAW 4th & 14 at ORST 46, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.6%−1.3
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    55.6%−1.3
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    56.9%
    average punt
  6. Q2 2:19HAW 4th & 2 at ORST 47, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 41.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    41.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    40.5%−1.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:34HAW 4th & 4 at ORST 17, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 39.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    38.8%−0.6
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    39.4%
    80% to make
    Punt
    34.9%−4.5
    average punt
  8. Q3 15:00ORST 4th & 19 at ORST 28, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.4%−3.6
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.0%
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:06HAW 4th & 15 at HAW 33, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.7%−4.4
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.1%
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:42ORST 4th & 16 at HAW 49, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.9%−3.0
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.9%
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:59ORST 4th & 10 at ORST 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.0%−3.3
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.2%
    average punt
  12. Q3 3:34ORST 4th & 9 at HAW 35, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsPunted · 42.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.8%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    42.7%−<0.1
    45% to make
    PuntTheir call
    41.1%−1.6
    average punt
  13. Q4 12:59HAW 4th & 9 at ORST 9, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 62.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.7%−2.3
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    60.9%
    89% to make
    Punt
    45.5%−15.5
    average punt
  14. Q4 12:59ORST 4th & 1 at ORST 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 41.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    45.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    40.3%−5.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 12:59ORST 4th & 5 at midfield, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 44.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    45.9%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    45.1%−0.8
    average punt
  16. Q4 6:05HAW 4th & 9 at ORST 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 59.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.3%−1.8
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    59.1%
    56% to make
    Punt
    53.6%−5.6
    average punt
  17. Q4 6:05ORST 4th & 6 at ORST 34, tied
    Numbers favored punt by 4.0 ptsWent for it · 44.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    42.5%−4.0
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    46.5%
    average punt
  18. Q4 2:17HAW 4th & 8 at ORST 10, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 60.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.7%−2.8
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    56.5%
    88% to make
    Punt
    26.7%−29.8
    average punt
  19. Q4 1:15ORST 4th & 10 at HAW 34, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 23.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.7%−7.4
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    25.1%
    47% to make
    Punt
    11.5%−13.6
    average punt
  20. Q4 0:14HAW 4th & 21 at HAW 35, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.4%−6.9
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.3%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
HAW made the numbers' call on 4 of 4ORST made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 7:44ORST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:54HAW Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 4:12ORST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 12:42ORST Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 11:00HAW Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 2:25ORST Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 0:12HAW Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 7:05HAW Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
HAWDrive 1MISSED FG
13 plays · 46 yds · 4:5267% → 66%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
66.7%
Miles Reed run for 1 yd to the Hawa 26Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+11
66.7%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Jason-Matthew Sharsh for 11 yds to the Hawa 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
66.7%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Cedric Byrd II for 5 yds to the Hawa 42Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 42
0
66.7%
Cole McDonald pass incomplete to Cedric Byrd IISimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 42
+4
66.7%
Miles Reed run for 4 yds to the Hawa 46Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 46
+11
66.7%
Miles Reed run for 11 yds to the OrgSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+1
66.7%
Miles Reed run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 42Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 42
+10
66.7%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Cedric Byrd II for 10 yds to the OrgSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
66.7%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Cedric Byrd II for 3 yds to the OrgSt 29Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 29
0
66.7%
Cole McDonald pass incomplete to Jason-Matthew SharshSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 29
0
66.7%
Cole McDonald pass incomplete to Jason-Matthew SharshSimilar
Q1 10:08
4TH & 7
OPP 29
+47
66.4%
Ryan Meskell 47 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 2TD
7 plays · 71 yds · 2:2434% → 38%
Q1 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
66.1%
Jermar Jefferson run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 32Similar
Q1 10:08
2ND & 7
OWN 32
-10
66.0%
OREGON ST Penalty, Offensive holding (Tyjon Lindsey) to the OrgSt 22Similar
Q1 10:08
2ND & 17
OWN 22
+23
66.2%
Jake Luton pass complete to Isaiah Hodgins for 23 yds to the OrgSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-2
65.7%
Jake Luton sacked by Solomon Matautia for a loss of 2 yards to the OrgSt 43Similar
Q1 10:08
2ND & 12
OWN 43
+45
66.0%
Jermar Jefferson run for 45 yds to the Hawa 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:08
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+8
65.5%
Jermar Jefferson run for 8 yds to the Hawa 4Similar
Q1 7:44
2ND & 2
OPP 4
+4
62.3%
Jermar Jefferson run for 4 yds for a TD, (Jordan Choukair KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 3TD
3 plays · 35 yds · 0:4164% → 67%
Q1 7:35
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+6
64.3%
Cole McDonald pass complete to JoJo Ward for 6 yds to the OrgSt 29Similar
Q1 6:54
2ND & 4
OPP 29
+29
66.7%
Cole McDonald pass complete to JoJo Ward for 29 yds for a TD, (Ryan Meskell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 4TD
7 plays · 60 yds · 2:3335% → 40%
Q1 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
65.1%
Jake Luton pass incomplete to Isaiah HodginsSimilar
Q1 6:45
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+10
65.2%
Jake Luton pass complete to Isaiah Hodgins for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:45
1ST & 10
50
+11
64.8%
Jermar Jefferson run for 11 yds to the Hawa 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
64.8%
Jermar Jefferson run for no gain to the Hawa 39Similar
Q1 6:45
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+2
64.8%
Jermar Jefferson run for 2 yds to the Hawa 37Similar
Q1 4:12
3RD & 8
OPP 37
+37
60.4%
Artavis Pierce run for 37 yds for a TD, (Jordan Choukair KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 5INT
4 plays · 20 yds · 0:0062% → 63%
Q1 4:06
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+16
61.6%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Jason-Matthew Sharsh for 16 yds to the Hawa 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:06
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
62.3%
Dayton Furuta run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 4:06
2ND & 6
50
+14
62.6%
Cole McDonald pass intercepted Nahshon Wright return for 14 yds to the OrgSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 6TD
13 plays · 66 yds · 5:0640% → 51%
Q1 2:48
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-2
60.0%
Tyjon Lindsey run for a loss of 2 yards to the OrgSt 32Similar
Q1 2:48
2ND & 12
OWN 32
+6
60.5%
Jermar Jefferson run for 6 yds to the OrgSt 38Similar
Q1 2:48
3RD & 6
OWN 38
+10
59.8%
HAWAII Penalty, Defensive holding (10 Yards) to the OrgSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:48
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+8
59.5%
Jermar Jefferson run for 8 yds to the Hawa 44Similar
Q1 2:48
2ND & 2
OPP 44
+7
59.2%
Jermar Jefferson run for 7 yds to the Hawa 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:48
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
59.3%
Jake Luton pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:48
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+5
59.3%
Artavis Pierce run for 5 yds to the Hawa 32Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 32
0
57.3%
Jake Luton pass incomplete to Isaiah Hodgins, broken up by Blessman Ta'alaSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 5
OPP 32
+8
58.2%
Jake Luton pass complete to Isaiah Hodgins for 8 yds to the Hawa 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
57.0%
Jake Luton pass complete to Noah Togiai for 3 yds to the Hawa 21Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 21
+5
57.0%
Artavis Pierce run for 5 yds to the Hawa 16Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 16
+3
57.3%
Artavis Pierce run for 3 yds to the Hawa 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:42
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
48.6%
Jake Luton pass complete to Isaiah Hodgins for 13 yds for a TD, (Jordan Choukair KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 7TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:4251% → 60%
Q2 12:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
51.0%
Cole McDonald pass incomplete to Cedric Byrd IISimilar
Q2 12:42
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
50.9%
Cole McDonald run for 8 yds to the Hawa 33Similar
Q2 12:42
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+12
51.6%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Jared Smart for 12 yds to the Hawa 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:42
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+20
52.4%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Cedric Byrd II for 20 yds to the OrgSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+35
59.7%
Cole McDonald pass complete to JoJo Ward for 35 yds for a TD, (Ryan Meskell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 8PUNT
9 plays · 12 yds · 0:2344% → 42%
Q2 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
56.2%
Jake Luton pass incomplete to Isaiah Hodgins, broken up by Cortez DavisSimilar
Q2 10:37
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
57.1%
Jermar Jefferson run for 8 yds to the OrgSt 33Similar
Q2 10:37
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+3
56.3%
Jack Colletto run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:37
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
56.2%
Artavis Pierce run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 37Similar
Q2 10:37
2ND & 9
OWN 37
0
56.3%
Jake Luton pass incomplete to Noah Togiai, broken up by Khoury BethleySimilar
Q2 10:37
3RD & 9
OWN 37
0
56.8%
Jake Luton pass incomplete to Noah Togiai, broken up by Kalen HicksSimilar
Q2 10:37
4TH & 9
OWN 37
-2
57.6%
Daniel Rodriguez punt for 49 yds , Melquise Stovall returns for a loss of 2 yards to the Hawa 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 9PUNT
10 plays · 42 yds · 0:0056% → 56%
Q2 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+4
55.9%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Cedric Byrd II for 4 yds to the Hawa 16Similar
Q2 8:55
2ND & 6
OWN 16
+7
55.9%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Cedric Byrd II for 7 yds to the Hawa 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
56.0%
Cole McDonald pass incomplete to Jared SmartSimilar
Q2 8:55
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+15
55.9%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Jason-Matthew Sharsh for 15 yds to the Hawa 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+9
56.9%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Jared Smart for 9 yds to the Hawa 47Similar
Q2 8:55
2ND & 1
OWN 47
+11
58.2%
Cole McDonald run for 11 yds to the OrgSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:55
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-4
58.4%
Cole McDonald sacked by John McCartan for a loss of 4 yards to the OrgSt 46Similar
Q2 8:55
2ND & 14
OPP 46
0
57.3%
Cole McDonald pass incomplete to Jared SmartSimilar
Q2 8:55
3RD & 14
OPP 46
0
56.3%
Cole McDonald pass incomplete to Jason-Matthew SharshSimilar
Q2 8:55
4TH & 14
OPP 46
0
55.5%
Stan Gaudion punt for 31 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the OrgSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 10TD
8 plays · 85 yds · 2:1748% → 63%
Q2 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+2
52.3%
Jermar Jefferson run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 17Similar
Q2 4:42
2ND & 8
OWN 17
+15
52.3%
HAWAII Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Cortez Davis) to the OrgSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+28
51.2%
Jake Luton pass complete to Isaiah Hodgins for 28 yds to the Hawa 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:42
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
49.4%
Jermar Jefferson run for no gain to the Hawa 40Similar
Q2 4:42
2ND & 10
OPP 40
0
49.5%
Jermar Jefferson run for no gain to the Hawa 40Similar
Q2 4:42
3RD & 10
OPP 40
-5
49.8%
OREGON ST Penalty, false start (Brandon Kipper) to the Hawa 45Similar
Q2 4:42
3RD & 15
OPP 45
+20
51.3%
Jake Luton pass complete to Kolby Taylor for 20 yds to the Hawa 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:25
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
36.8%
Artavis Pierce run for 25 yds for a TD, (Jordan Choukair KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 11TD
17 plays · 70 yds · 2:0739% → 55%
Q2 2:19
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
39.3%
Cole McDonald pass incomplete to Cedric Byrd IISimilar
Q2 2:19
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+15
38.9%
OREGON ST Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Akili Arnold) to the Hawa 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:19
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
41.1%
Cole McDonald run for 6 yds to the OrgSt 49Similar
Q2 2:19
2ND & 4
OPP 49
0
41.5%
Cole McDonald pass incomplete to Cedric Byrd IISimilar
Q2 2:19
3RD & 4
OPP 49
+2
41.1%
Dayton Furuta run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 47Similar
Q2 2:19
4TH & 2
OPP 47
+24
41.0%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Jared Smart for 24 yds to the OrgSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:19
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
42.2%
Cole McDonald pass incomplete to JoJo WardSimilar
Q2 2:19
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+6
42.1%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Dayton Furuta for 6 yds to the OrgSt 17Similar
Q2 0:44
3RD & 4
OPP 17
0
38.1%
Cole McDonald pass incomplete to Cedric Byrd IISimilar
Q2 0:34
4TH & 4
OPP 17
+12
39.3%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Jared Smart for 12 yds to the OrgSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
41.4%
Cole McDonald pass incomplete to Cedric Byrd IISimilar
Q2 0:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
54.7%
Cole McDonald pass complete to JoJo Ward for 5 yds for a TD, (Ryan Meskell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 12END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0054% → 54%
Q2 0:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
45.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the OrgSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 13PUNT
9 plays · 3 yds · 0:0054% → 52%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
45.8%
Jermar Jefferson run for 8 yds to the OrgSt 33Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+1
44.6%
Jermar Jefferson run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 34Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
45.1%
Jermar Jefferson run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
44.7%
Artavis Pierce run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 40Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 40
-15
43.8%
OREGON ST Penalty, Offensive pass interference (Isaiah Hodgins) to the OrgSt 25Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 22
OWN 25
+3
46.6%
Jake Luton pass complete to Artavis Pierce for 3 yds to the OrgSt 28Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 19
OWN 28
0
47.4%
Jake Luton pass incomplete to Isaiah HodginsSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 19
OWN 28
+14
48.2%
Daniel Rodriguez punt for 48 yds , Melquise Stovall returns for 14 yds to the Hawa 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:0047% → 44%
Q3 12:06
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
46.8%
Cole McDonald pass incomplete to Jared Smart, broken up by Jack CollettoSimilar
Q3 12:06
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
46.6%
Cole McDonald pass incomplete to Jason-Matthew SharshSimilar
Q3 12:06
3RD & 10
OWN 38
-5
45.3%
HAWAII Penalty, false start (J.R. Hensley) to the Hawa 33Similar
Q3 12:06
3RD & 15
OWN 33
0
44.0%
Cole McDonald pass incomplete to Cedric Byrd IISimilar
Q3 12:06
4TH & 15
OWN 33
0
43.5%
Stan Gaudion punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Kolby Taylor at the OrgSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 15PUNT
9 plays · 29 yds · 0:0056% → 55%
Q3 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
43.9%
Jake Luton pass incomplete to Tyjon LindseySimilar
Q3 11:42
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+19
44.2%
Jermar Jefferson run for 19 yds to the OrgSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
41.3%
Jermar Jefferson run for 7 yds to the OrgSt 48Similar
Q3 11:42
2ND & 3
OWN 48
+9
41.0%
Jermar Jefferson run for 9 yds to the Hawa 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:42
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
40.7%
Jermar Jefferson run for 5 yds to the Hawa 38Similar
Q3 11:42
2ND & 5
OPP 38
-10
40.5%
OREGON ST Penalty, Offensive holding (Nous Keobounnam) to the Hawa 48Similar
Q3 11:42
2ND & 15
OPP 48
-1
42.0%
Jake Luton pass complete to Kolby Taylor for a loss of 1 yard to the Hawa 49Similar
Q3 11:42
3RD & 16
OPP 49
0
43.2%
Jake Luton pass incomplete to Champ FlemingsSimilar
Q3 11:42
4TH & 16
OPP 49
0
44.6%
Daniel Rodriguez punt for 49 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 16TD
4 plays · 80 yds · 1:4443% → 67%
Q3 8:49
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+39
43.3%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Melquise Stovall for 24 yds to the OrgSt 44 for a 1ST down OREGON ST Penalty, personal foul (Shawn Wilson) to the OrgSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:49
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+6
47.8%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Melquise Stovall for 6 yds to the OrgSt 35Similar
Q3 8:49
2ND & 4
OPP 35
+6
49.4%
Miles Reed run for 6 yds to the OrgSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:05
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+29
66.5%
Cole McDonald pass complete to JoJo Ward for 29 yds for a TD, (Ryan Meskell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0042% → 39%
Q3 6:59
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
58.0%
Jermar Jefferson run for no gain to the OrgSt 22Similar
Q3 6:59
2ND & 10
OWN 22
0
58.4%
Jake Luton pass incomplete to Tyjon LindseySimilar
Q3 6:59
3RD & 10
OWN 22
0
59.7%
Jake Luton pass incomplete to Kolby TaylorSimilar
Q3 6:59
4TH & 10
OWN 22
-2
61.1%
Daniel Rodriguez punt for 54 yds , Melquise Stovall returns for a loss of 2 yards to the Hawa 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 18FUMBLE
5 plays · 14 yds · 0:0061% → 65%
Q3 6:08
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
61.2%
Cole McDonald run for no gain to the Hawa 22Similar
Q3 6:08
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+12
61.0%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Cedric Byrd II for 12 yds to the Hawa 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:08
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+7
61.8%
Miles Reed run for 7 yds to the Hawa 41Similar
Q3 6:08
2ND & 3
OWN 41
+5
64.5%
Miles Reed run for 5 yds to the Hawa 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:08
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-10
64.6%
Cole McDonald sacked by Hamilcar Rashed Jr. for a loss of 10 yards to the Hawa 36 Cole McDonald fumbled, recovered by OrgSt Hamilcar Rashed Jr. , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0048% → 43%
Q3 3:34
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+6
52.4%
Jermar Jefferson run for 6 yds to the Hawa 30Similar
Q3 3:34
2ND & 4
OPP 30
+1
50.6%
Jermar Jefferson run for 1 yd to the Hawa 29Similar
Q3 3:34
3RD & 3
OPP 29
-1
52.4%
Jermar Jefferson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Hawa 30Similar
Q3 3:34
4TH & 4
OPP 30
-5
55.5%
OREGON ST Penalty, false start (Brandon Kipper) to the Hawa 35Similar
Q3 3:34
4TH & 9
OPP 35
0
56.6%
Jake Luton punt for 33 yds, downed at the Hawa 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 20MISSED FG
10 plays · 89 yds · 3:4059% → 61%
Q3 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+43
59.4%
Cole McDonald pass complete to JoJo Ward for 43 yds to the Hawa 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+15
63.7%
Cole McDonald pass complete to JoJo Ward for 15 yds to the OrgSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:39
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+18
65.0%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Jared Smart for 18 yds to the OrgSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+12
66.1%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Melquise Stovall for 12 yds to the OrgSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
65.7%
Cole McDonald pass incomplete to Cedric Byrd IISimilar
Q4 14:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
-7
65.7%
Miles Reed run for a loss of 7 yards to the OrgSt 17Similar
Q4 14:17
3RD & 17
OWN 0
0
56.2%
HAWAII Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting ( Yards) to the OrgSt 17Similar
Q4 14:17
3RD & GOAL
OPP 17
+8
61.3%
Cole McDonald pass complete to JoJo Ward for 8 yds to the OrgSt 9Similar
Q4 12:59
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+27
60.8%
Ryan Meskell 27 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 21DOWNS
9 plays · 34 yds · 0:0046% → 47%
Q4 12:59
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
54.4%
Jake Luton pass incomplete to Isaiah HodginsSimilar
Q4 12:59
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
54.9%
Jake Luton pass incomplete to Tyjon LindseySimilar
Q4 12:59
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+9
56.7%
Jake Luton pass complete to Kolby Taylor for 9 yds to the OrgSt 29Similar
Q4 12:59
4TH & 1
OWN 29
+3
55.8%
Jermar Jefferson run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:59
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+13
52.7%
Jermar Jefferson run for 13 yds to the OrgSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:59
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
50.0%
Jermar Jefferson run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 49Similar
Q4 12:59
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+1
49.4%
Jermar Jefferson run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 12:59
3RD & 5
50
0
49.6%
Jake Luton pass incomplete to Noah Togiai, broken up by Kana'i PicancoSimilar
Q4 12:59
4TH & 5
50
+4
52.7%
Jake Luton pass complete to Isaiah Hodgins for 4 yds to the Hawa 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 22MISSED FG
10 plays · 24 yds · 3:5263% → 58%
Q4 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
62.7%
Miles Reed run for 3 yds to the Hawa 49Similar
Q4 9:57
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+9
62.9%
Cole McDonald pass complete to JoJo Ward for 9 yds to the OrgSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:57
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
63.9%
Cole McDonald pass incomplete to JoJo WardSimilar
Q4 9:57
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+6
63.5%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Jared Smart for 6 yds to the OrgSt 36Similar
Q4 9:57
3RD & 4
OPP 36
+5
62.9%
Cole McDonald run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:57
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-10
65.1%
HAWAII Penalty, Offensive holding (Gene Pryor) to the OrgSt 41Similar
Q4 9:57
1ST & 20
OPP 41
+11
61.5%
Miles Reed run for 11 yds to the OrgSt 30Similar
Q4 9:57
2ND & 9
OPP 30
0
64.9%
Cole McDonald pass incomplete to Cedric Byrd IISimilar
Q4 9:57
3RD & 9
OPP 30
0
62.7%
Cole McDonald pass incomplete to Cedric Byrd IISimilar
Q4 6:05
4TH & 9
OPP 30
+48
58.1%
Ryan Meskell 48 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 23DOWNS
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0051% → 47%
Q4 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
49.1%
Jake Luton run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 34Similar
Q4 6:05
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+4
47.7%
Jermar Jefferson run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 38Similar
Q4 6:05
3RD & 2
OWN 38
-4
46.1%
Jermar Jefferson run for a loss of 4 yards to the OrgSt 34Similar
Q4 6:05
4TH & 6
OWN 34
0
52.8%
Daniel Rodriguez pass incomplete to Andre BoddenSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 24FG
7 plays · 24 yds · 2:0165% → 85%
Q4 4:18
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
64.8%
Miles Reed run for no gain to the OrgSt 34Similar
Q4 4:18
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+10
64.6%
Cole McDonald pass complete to JoJo Ward for 10 yds to the OrgSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:18
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+12
64.8%
OREGON ST Penalty, personal foul (Omar Hicks-Onu) to the OrgSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:18
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
64.8%
Cole McDonald pass incomplete to Melquise StovallSimilar
Q4 4:18
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+2
64.8%
Cole McDonald run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 10Similar
Q4 4:18
3RD & 8
OPP 10
0
62.7%
Cole McDonald pass incomplete to JoJo WardSimilar
Q4 2:17
4TH & 8
OPP 10
+28
84.9%
Ryan Meskell 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 25MISSED FG
9 plays · 31 yds · 1:0230% → 27%
Q4 2:17
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
70.1%
Jake Luton pass complete to Noah Togiai for 6 yds to the OrgSt 41Similar
Q4 2:17
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+10
66.7%
Jake Luton pass complete to Isaiah Hodgins for 10 yds to the Hawa 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:17
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+15
64.9%
Jake Luton pass complete to Tyjon Lindsey for 15 yds to the Hawa 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:17
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
62.5%
Jake Luton pass incomplete to Tyjon LindseySimilar
Q4 2:17
2ND & 10
OPP 34
0
62.7%
Jake Luton pass incomplete to Isaiah HodginsSimilar
Q4 1:25
3RD & 10
OPP 34
0
66.6%
Jake Luton pass incomplete to Isaiah HodginsSimilar
Q4 1:15
4TH & 10
OPP 34
+52
72.6%
Jordan Choukair 52 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 26PUNT
9 plays · 1 yds · 1:0189% → 93%
Q4 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+12
89.1%
Cole McDonald run for 12 yds to the Hawa 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
90.9%
Cole McDonald run for 3 yds to the Hawa 49Similar
Q4 1:05
2ND & 7
OWN 49
-4
92.2%
Cole McDonald run for a loss of 4 yards to the Hawa 45Similar
Q4 1:01
3RD & 11
OWN 45
-10
92.6%
Cole McDonald sacked by Avery Roberts for a loss of 10 yards to the Hawa 35Similar
Q4 0:14
4TH & 21
OWN 35
+12
93.4%
Stan Gaudion punt for 40 yds , Jesiah Irish returns for 12 yds to the OrgSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 27END OF GAME
1 play · 18 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q4 0:04
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
87.3%
Jake Luton pass complete to Noah Togiai for 9 yds to the Hawa 45 for a 1ST down lat. to Artavis Pierce for 9 yds to the Hawa 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 2:17
Ryan Meskell 28 yd FG GOOD
+22.2
TD · Q3 7:05
Cole McDonald pass complete to JoJo Ward for 29 yds for a TD, (Ryan Meskell KICK)
+17.1
TD · Q2 2:25
Artavis Pierce run for 25 yds for a TD, (Jordan Choukair KICK)
-14.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com