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Win probability · NEV
modelNEV aheadHAW aheadconfidence bandkey playNEV scoreHAW score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 7:18 · Cole McDonald pass incomplete to JoJo Ward
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remainingPregame prior
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 8:17: Cole McDonald pass complete to Cedric Byrd II for 36 yds for a TD, (Ryan Meskell KICK) NEVADA Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined — HAW win probability +2.7 pts (now 49%) (top driver: HAW has the ball).
- TD · Q2 10:40: Cole McDonald pass complete to Cedric Byrd II for 2 yds for a TD, (Ryan Meskell KICK) — HAW win probability +10.0 pts (now 63%) (top driver: HAW has the ball).
- FG · Q2 0:36: Brandon Talton 36 yd FG GOOD — HAW win probability +2.5 pts (now 94%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
- FG · Q2 0:02: Ryan Meskell 44 yd FG GOOD — NEV win probability +3.5 pts (now 10%) (top driver: HAW has the ball).
- TD · Q3 11:02: Cole McDonald pass complete to Jason-Matthew Sharsh for 12 yds for a TD, (Ryan Meskell KICK) — HAW win probability +5.0 pts (now 96%) (top driver: HAW has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
NEV made the numbers' call on 7 of 8HAW made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
- Q1 15:00HAW 4th & 7 at NEV 47, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 43.1% before the snapGo for it43.1%−<0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call43.2%average punt
- Q1 11:51NEV 4th & 10 at NEV 20, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 56.8% before the snapGo for it56.8%−0.127% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call56.9%average punt
- Q1 8:13NEV 4th & 9 at NEV 20, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.1% before the snapGo for it54.0%−0.230% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call54.2%average punt
- Q1 7:18HAW 4th & 2 at NEV 20, up 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 46.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call46.3%57% to convertField goal46.1%−0.275% to makePunt44.6%−1.7average punt
- Q1 4:09NEV 4th & 26 at HAW 45, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.8% before the snapGo for it52.3%−0.77% to convertField goal52.7%−0.425% to makePuntTheir call53.1%average punt
- Q2 9:11NEV 4th & 6 at NEV 29, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.2% before the snapGo for it39.0%−0.439% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call39.4%average punt
- Q2 9:11NEV 4th & 3 at NEV 47, down 21Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 31.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call31.5%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt31.0%−0.5average punt
- Q2 0:36NEV 4th & 15 at HAW 19, down 28Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 8.5% before the snapGo for it8.4%−0.115% to convertField goalTheir call8.6%77% to makePunt8.2%−0.3average punt
- Q3 15:00NEV 4th & 6 at NEV 29, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.5% before the snapGo for it6.5%−<0.139% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call6.6%average punt
- Q4 15:00HAW 4th & 6 at NEV 48, up 42Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.0% before the snapGo for it99.0%−<0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.0%average punt
- Q4 13:35HAW 4th & 2 at NEV 15, up 42Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.2%56% to convertField goal99.1%−0.183% to makePunt98.7%−0.5average punt
- Q4 3:38NEV 4th & 10 at HAW 25, down 51Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.2%−<0.128% to convertField goal0.2%66% to makePunt0.1%−0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
HAW made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
- Q1 8:17HAW Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call44.5%97% to makeGo for two44.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 10:40HAW Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call56.5%97% to makeGo for two56.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 5:33HAW Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call86.6%97% to makeGo for two86.5%−0.245% to convert
- Q3 11:02HAW Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.3%97% to makeGo for two96.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 2:57HAW Touchdown, up 41 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.2%97% to makeGo for two99.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 3:42HAW Touchdown, up 50 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartHAWDrive 1PUNT7 plays · 23 yds · 0:0046% → 46%
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 36
+14
54.0%
Fred Holly III run for 14 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 48
-7
54.0%
Cole McDonald sacked by Lawson Hall for a loss of 7 yards to the Hawa 45Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 15
OWN 45
+8
54.0%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Jason-Matthew Sharsh for 8 yds to the Nevad 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 2PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0054% → 54%
Q1 11:51
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
54.4%
Carson Strong pass complete to Melquan Stovall for 5 yds to the Nevad 25Similar
Q1 11:51
3RD & 10
OWN 20
0
54.2%
Carson Strong pass complete to Kaleb Fossum for no gain to the Nevad 20Similar
Q1 11:51
4TH & 10
OWN 20
-2
54.1%
Quinton Conaway punt for 40 yds , Cedric Byrd II returns for a loss of 2 yards to the Hawa 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 3TD6 plays · 62 yds · 2:1946% → 49%
Q1 10:36
1ST & 15
OWN 33
+9
54.4%
Cole McDonald pass complete to JoJo Ward for 9 yds to the Hawa 42Similar
Q1 10:36
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+9
53.9%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Jared Smart for 9 yds to the Nevad 36Similar
Q1 8:17
2ND & 1
OPP 36
+36
51.2%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Cedric Byrd II for 36 yds for a TD, (Ryan Meskell KICK) NEVADA Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 4PUNT5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0052% → 52%
Q1 8:13
4TH & 9
OWN 20
0
51.6%
Quinton Conaway punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Cedric Byrd II at the Hawa 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 5DOWNS8 plays · 32 yds · 0:0049% → 49%
Q1 7:18
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+11
50.9%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Jared Smart for 11 yds to the Nevad 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:18
2ND & 11
OPP 42
+1
50.8%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Cedric Byrd II for 1 yd to the Nevad 41Similar
Q1 7:18
3RD & 10
OPP 41
+13
50.9%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Jason-Matthew Sharsh for 13 yds to the Nevad 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:18
2ND & 10
OPP 28
0
50.7%
Cole McDonald pass incomplete to Jared Smart, broken up by Berdale RobinsSimilar
Q1 7:18
3RD & 10
OPP 28
+8
50.9%
Cole McDonald pass complete to JoJo Ward for 8 yds to the Nevad 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 6PUNT10 plays · 35 yds · 0:0051% → 50%
Q1 4:09
1ST & 10
50
+21
52.0%
Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 21 yds to the Hawa 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:09
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-15
52.6%
TAUA, Toa rush for 2 yards to the UH27 (TA'ALA, B.), PENALTY NEV personal foul (EDWARDS, Nathan) 15 yards to the UH44, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:09
2ND & 21
OPP 40
+5
51.4%
Carson Strong pass complete to Elijah Cooks for 5 yds to the Hawa 35Similar
Q1 4:09
3RD & 16
OPP 35
-5
51.2%
Carson Strong pass complete to Kelton Moore for a loss of 5 yards to the Hawa 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 7TD9 plays · 80 yds · 4:2251% → 63%
Q1 0:02
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
48.8%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Jason-Matthew Sharsh for 9 yds to the Hawa 29Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+42
47.8%
Cole McDonald pass complete to JoJo Ward for 42 yds to the Nevad 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
37.1%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Cedric Byrd II for 2 yds for a TD, (Ryan Meskell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 8PUNT TD5 plays · 4 yds · 1:2939% → 28%
Q2 10:40
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
39.1%
Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 4 yds to the Nevad 29Similar
Q2 10:40
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
39.1%
Carson Strong pass incomplete to Kaleb Fossum, broken up by Kalen HicksSimilar
Q2 9:11
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+2
28.0%
Quinton Conaway punt blocked by Andrew Choi blocked by Andrew Choi Justice Augafa return for 2 yds for a TD, (Ryan Meskell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 9DOWNS7 plays · 22 yds · 0:0028% → 30%
HAWDrive 10TD4 plays · 47 yds · 1:2277% → 78%
Q2 6:55
2ND & 12
OPP 49
+30
23.3%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Jason-Matthew Sharsh for 30 yds to the Nevad 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:55
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+10
22.9%
MCDONALD, Cole pass incomplete to SMART, Jared, PENALTY NEV pass interference (TAUA, Toa) 10 yards to the NEV9, 1ST DOWN UH, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 11FG19 plays · 61 yds · 4:5321% → 6%
Q2 5:29
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
21.2%
Cristian Solano pass complete to Dominic Christian for 5 yds to the Nevad 35Similar
Q2 5:29
3RD & 4
OWN 36
+5
20.7%
Cristian Solano pass complete to Crishaun Lappin for 5 yds to the Nevad 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:29
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+18
21.5%
Cristian Solano pass complete to John Humphrey for 18 yds to the Hawa 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:29
3RD & 5
OPP 34
+5
22.5%
Cristian Solano run for 5 yds to the Hawa 29 Cristian Solano fumbled, forced by Kendall Hune, recovered by Nevad Nathan Edwards for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:25
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+15
11.9%
SOLANO, C. pass incomplete to DOUBS, Romeo (FARRIS II, R.), PENALTY UH pass interference (FARRIS II, R.) 15 yards to the UH14, 1ST DOWN NEV, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:25
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-1
11.8%
Cristian Solano pass complete to Dominic Christian for a loss of 1 yard to the Hawa 15Similar
Q2 0:54
2ND & 11
OPP 15
-4
8.7%
Cristian Solano sacked by Mason Vega for a loss of 4 yards to the Hawa 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 12FG7 plays · 45 yds · 0:2892% → 90%
NEVDrive 14PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0011% → 10%
HAWDrive 15TD5 plays · 63 yds · 2:2691% → 96%
Q3 13:28
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+18
9.1%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Cedric Byrd II for 18 yds to the Nevad 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:28
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+9
8.8%
Cole McDonald pass complete to JoJo Ward for 9 yds to the Nevad 36Similar
Q3 13:28
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+16
8.5%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Jason-Matthew Sharsh for 16 yds to the Nevad 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:02
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
3.6%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Jason-Matthew Sharsh for 12 yds for a TD, (Ryan Meskell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 16INT13 plays · 44 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q3 10:59
2ND & 15
OWN 16
+2
3.7%
Cristian Solano pass complete to Kacee Williams for 2 yds to the Nevad 18Similar
Q3 10:59
3RD & 22
OWN 9
+15
3.6%
HAWAII Penalty, personal foul (Mason Vega) to the Nevad 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+11
3.8%
Cristian Solano pass complete to Elijah Cooks for 11 yds to the Nevad 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:59
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
4.2%
Cristian Solano pass intercepted, touchback. Kalen Hicks return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 17TD8 plays · 80 yds · 3:5298% → 99%
Q3 6:49
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+8
2.3%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Jared Smart for 8 yds to the Hawa 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:49
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+6
2.3%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Miles Reed for 6 yds to the Hawa 39Similar
Q3 6:49
3RD & 4
OWN 39
+7
2.3%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Jason-Matthew Sharsh for 7 yds to the Hawa 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+19
2.2%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Jason-Matthew Sharsh for 19 yds to the Nevad 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:57
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
1.1%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Cedric Byrd II for 20 yds for a TD, (Ryan Meskell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 18FUMBLE4 plays · 27 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 2:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
0.8%
Cristian Solano pass complete to Elijah Cooks for 5 yds to the Nevad 30Similar
Q3 2:57
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
0.9%
Cristian Solano run for a loss of 1 yard to the Hawa 48 Cristian Solano fumbled, forced by Jonah Laulu, recovered by Hawa Rojesterman Farris IISimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 19PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 1:5599% → 99%
NEVDrive 20INT3 plays · -1 yds · 0:001% → 1%
HAWDrive 21DOWNS4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
NEVDrive 22SF4 plays · -17 yds · 1:560% → 0%
Q4 11:16
3RD & 10
OWN 17
+1
0.3%
Cristian Solano pass complete to Elijah Cooks for 1 yd to the Nevad 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 23TD10 plays · 75 yds · 5:33100% → 100%
Q4 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
0.3%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Robert Funkhouser for 9 yds to the Hawa 34Similar
Q4 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-6
0.3%
Chevan Cordeiro sacked by Kameron Toomer for a loss of 6 yards to the Hawa 30Similar
Q4 9:15
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+19
0.3%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Mekel Ealy for 19 yds to the Nevad 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:15
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+12
0.3%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Robert Funkhouser for 12 yds to the Nevad 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:42
3RD & 8
OPP 14
+14
0.2%
Robert Funkhouser 14 Yd pass from Justin Uahinui (Ryan Meskell Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 24DOWNS13 plays · 24 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 3:38
2ND & 4
OWN 47
+3
0.1%
Cristian Solano pass complete to Ben Putman for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 3:38
2ND & 7
OPP 38
-2
0.1%
Cristian Solano sacked by Justus Tavai for a loss of 2 yards to the Hawa 40Similar
Q4 3:38
3RD & 9
OPP 40
+15
0.1%
SOLANO, C. pass incomplete to COOKS, Elijah, PENALTY UH pass interference (GREEN, James) 15 yards to the UH25, 1ST DOWN NEV, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:38
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-8
0.1%
Cristian Solano run for 2 yds to the Hawa 23 NEVADA Penalty, Offensive holding (Gray Davis) to the Hawa 33Similar
Q4 3:38
2ND & 18
OPP 33
+8
0.1%
Cristian Solano pass complete to Roger Neal for 8 yds to the Hawa 25Similar
Q4 3:38
4TH & 10
OPP 25
-10
0.1%
Cristian Solano sacked by Andrew Choi and Jonah Laulu for a loss of 10 yards to the Hawa 35 NEVADA Penalty, personal foul ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 10:40
Cole McDonald pass complete to Cedric Byrd II for 2 yds for a TD, (Ryan Meskell KICK)
-10
TD · Q3 11:02
Cole McDonald pass complete to Jason-Matthew Sharsh for 12 yds for a TD, (Ryan Meskell KICK)
-5
FG · Q2 0:02
Ryan Meskell 44 yd FG GOOD
+3.5