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AF

Air Force 56 at Hawai'i 26

HAW
2019 · Week 8 · Oct 19, 2019 · Aloha Stadium
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Win probability · HAW
modelHAW aheadAF aheadconfidence bandkey playHAW scoreAF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 13:33 · Cole McDonald pass complete to Cedric Byrd II for 7 yds to the Hawa 38 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+55.5+27.80−27.8−55.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 48Home team on offense−4.9Score differential−2.2Garbage-time factor−1.4Pregame prior−6.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 13:33: Mike Schmidt pass complete to Geraud Sanders for 75 yds for a TD, (Jake Koehnke KICK) — AF win probability +8.0 pts (now 65%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 2:04: Cole McDonald pass complete to Melquise Stovall for 5 yds for a TD, (Ryan Meskell KICK) — HAW win probability +7.8 pts (now 37%) (top driver: HAW has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 7:19: Timothy Jackson run for 10 yds for a TD, (Jake Koehnke KICK) — AF win probability +13.8 pts (now 85%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 14:54: Cole McDonald pass complete to JoJo Ward for 10 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — HAW win probability +11.5 pts (now 30%) (top driver: HAW has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 13:37: Mike Schmidt run for 61 yds for a TD, (Jake Koehnke KICK) — AF win probability +14.3 pts (now 92%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
HAW made the numbers' call on 3 of 6AF made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 6:03HAW 4th & 3 at HAW 31, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.9%−0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.0%
    average punt
  2. Q2 13:33HAW 4th & 4 at HAW 31, down 11
    Close callWent for it · 35.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    35.8%−0.3
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    36.2%
    average punt
  3. Q2 6:19HAW 4th & 5 at AF 8, down 11
    Close callKicked a field goal · 32.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.4%
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    32.4%−<0.1
    90% to make
    Punt
    28.1%−4.3
    average punt
  4. Q2 1:25AF 4th & 7 at AF 28, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.3%−0.8
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.2%
    average punt
  5. Q3 7:19AF 4th & 2 at HAW 10, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 72.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    72.6%
    55% to convert
    Field goal
    71.4%−1.2
    88% to make
    Punt
    64.1%−8.5
    average punt
  6. Q3 7:13HAW 4th & 12 at AF 43, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.6%−0.8
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    18.5%−1.0
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    19.4%
    average punt
  7. Q3 7:13AF 4th & 24 at AF 7, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.1%−4.6
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.7%
    average punt
  8. Q4 13:33HAW 4th & 10 at HAW 38, down 16
    Numbers favored punt by 1.1 ptsWent for it · 12.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.5%−1.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    12.6%
    average punt
  9. Q4 3:54HAW 4th & 8 at HAW 28, down 30
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
HAW made the numbers' call on 2 of 3AF made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 6:09AF Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:35AF Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 13:44HAW Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 13:33AF Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 3:34AF Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 2:04HAW Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    34.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    34.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 7:19AF Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 14:54HAW Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    25.3%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    25.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 13:37AF Touchdown, up 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 7:49AF Touchdown, up 22 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.6%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.6%
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 4:01AF Touchdown, up 29 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
HAWDrive 1FG
12 plays · 52 yds · 5:1441% → 44%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
41.2%
Cole McDonald pass complete to JoJo Ward for 5 yds to the Hawa 31Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+14
41.2%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Jason-Matthew Sharsh for 14 yds to the Hawa 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+18
41.2%
Cole McDonald pass complete to JoJo Ward for 18 yds to the AFA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+5
41.2%
Cole McDonald run for 5 yds to the AFA 32Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 32
+13
41.2%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Jared Smart for 13 yds to the AFA 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+10
41.2%
Miles Reed run for 10 yds to the AFA 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
41.2%
Cole McDonald pass incomplete to Jared SmartSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
-15
41.2%
HAWAII Penalty, Offensive pass interference (Jared Smart) to the AFA 24Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 24
-6
41.2%
Cole McDonald sacked by Demonte Meeks for a loss of 6 yards to the AFA 30Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 30
+8
41.2%
Miles Reed run for 8 yds to the AFA 22Similar
Q1 9:46
4TH & 0
OPP 22
+41
43.7%
Ryan Meskell 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 2TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:3757% → 58%
Q1 9:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
43.4%
Kadin Remsberg run for 12 yds to the AFA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:46
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+22
43.3%
Donald Hammond III pass complete to Geraud Sanders for 22 yds to the Hawa 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:46
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+24
42.9%
Kadin Remsberg run for 24 yds to the Hawa 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:46
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+2
42.7%
Taven Birdow run for 2 yds to the Hawa 15Similar
Q1 9:46
2ND & 8
OPP 15
+9
42.7%
Donald Hammond III run for 9 yds to the Hawa 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
42.7%
Mike Schmidt run for 4 yds to the Hawa 2Similar
Q1 9:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
42.7%
Taven Birdow run for no gain to the Hawa 2Similar
Q1 6:09
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
41.6%
Kadin Remsberg run for 2 yds for a TD, (Jake Koehnke KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0042% → 42%
Q1 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
42.2%
Fred Holly III run for 3 yds to the Hawa 27Similar
Q1 6:03
2ND & 7
OWN 27
+4
42.2%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Cedric Byrd II for 4 yds to the Hawa 31Similar
Q1 6:03
3RD & 3
OWN 31
0
42.1%
Cole McDonald pass incomplete to Jared Smart, broken up by Milton Bugg IIISimilar
Q1 6:03
4TH & 3
OWN 31
0
41.8%
Stan Gaudion punt for 44 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 4TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 5:0858% → 64%
Q1 4:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
42.5%
Timothy Jackson run for 4 yds to the AFA 29Similar
Q1 4:43
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+4
42.2%
Kadin Remsberg run for 4 yds to the AFA 33Similar
Q1 4:43
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+4
42.3%
Mike Schmidt run for 4 yds to the AFA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:43
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
42.1%
Timothy Jackson run for 3 yds to the AFA 40Similar
Q1 4:43
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+7
41.8%
Mike Schmidt run for 7 yds to the AFA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:43
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
41.8%
Timothy Jackson run for 2 yds to the AFA 49Similar
Q1 4:43
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+3
41.7%
Kadin Remsberg run for 3 yds to the Hawa 48Similar
Q1 4:43
3RD & 5
OPP 48
+3
41.8%
Kadin Remsberg run for 3 yds to the Hawa 45Similar
Q1 4:43
4TH & 2
OPP 45
+5
42.3%
HAWAII Penalty, Defensive offside (DJuan Matthews) to the Hawa 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+39
41.5%
Mike Schmidt pass complete to Kade Waguespack for 39 yds to the Hawa 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
35.8%
Mike Schmidt run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jake Koehnke KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 5TD
4 plays · 73 yds · 0:4637% → 43%
Q2 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+14
37.1%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Jared Smart for 14 yds to the Hawa 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
37.7%
Cole McDonald pass incomplete to JoJo Ward, broken up by Jordan JacksonSimilar
Q2 13:44
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+59
43.4%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Melquise Stovall for 59 yds for a TD, (Ryan Meskell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 6TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:0065% → 65%
Q2 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
35.5%
Mike Schmidt pass complete to Geraud Sanders for 75 yds for a TD, (Jake Koehnke KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 7FG
17 plays · 67 yds · 7:1436% → 35%
Q2 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
36.3%
Cole McDonald pass incomplete to JoJo WardSimilar
Q2 13:33
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
36.3%
Miles Reed run for no gain to the Hawa 25Similar
Q2 13:33
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+6
35.7%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Jason-Matthew Sharsh for 6 yds to the Hawa 31Similar
Q2 13:33
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+7
35.8%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Cedric Byrd II for 7 yds to the Hawa 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+14
36.9%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Jared Smart for 14 yds to the AFA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:33
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
37.7%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Jared Smart for 4 yds to the AFA 44Similar
Q2 13:33
2ND & 6
OPP 44
+5
37.8%
Miles Reed run for 5 yds to the AFA 39Similar
Q2 13:33
3RD & 1
OPP 39
+10
37.7%
Cole McDonald run for 10 yds to the AFA 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:33
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
38.5%
Cole McDonald pass incomplete to Melquise Stovall, broken up by Eric WardSimilar
Q2 13:33
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+7
38.4%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Melquise Stovall for 7 yds to the AFA 22Similar
Q2 13:33
3RD & 3
OPP 22
+9
37.7%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Jared Smart for 9 yds to the AFA 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:33
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-3
38.5%
Miles Reed run for a loss of 3 yards to the AFA 16Similar
Q2 13:33
2ND & 13
OPP 16
0
38.4%
Cole McDonald pass incomplete to Melquise StovallSimilar
Q2 13:33
3RD & 13
OPP 16
+8
37.2%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Cedric Byrd II for 8 yds to the AFA 8Similar
Q2 6:19
4TH & 5
OPP 8
+27
34.9%
Ryan Meskell 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 8TD
8 plays · 86 yds · 2:4366% → 77%
Q2 6:17
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+64
34.1%
Timothy Jackson run for 64 yds to the Hawa 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:17
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-15
31.2%
AIR FORCE Penalty, Offensive pass interference (-15 Yards) to the Hawa 37Similar
Q2 6:17
1ST & 25
OPP 37
+8
31.8%
Mike Schmidt run for 8 yds to the Hawa 29Similar
Q2 6:17
2ND & 17
OPP 29
+19
31.7%
Mike Schmidt pass complete to Geraud Sanders for 19 yds to the Hawa 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
31.2%
Mike Schmidt run for 3 yds to the Hawa 7Similar
Q2 3:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
22.8%
Kadin Remsberg run for 7 yds for a TD, (Jake Koehnke KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 9TD
5 plays · 71 yds · 1:3026% → 37%
Q2 3:34
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+32
26.4%
Cole McDonald pass complete to JoJo Ward for 32 yds to the AFA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:34
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+17
28.2%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Jared Smart for 17 yds to the AFA 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:34
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+17
28.8%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Jared Smart for 17 yds to the AFA 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
36.6%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Melquise Stovall for 5 yds for a TD, (Ryan Meskell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 3 yds · 0:3968% → 67%
Q2 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
32.4%
Mike Schmidt run for 2 yds to the AFA 27Similar
Q2 2:04
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+3
32.2%
Timothy Jackson run for 3 yds to the AFA 30Similar
Q2 1:29
3RD & 5
OWN 30
-2
31.3%
Mike Schmidt pass complete to Timothy Jackson for a loss of 2 yards to the AFA 28Similar
Q2 1:25
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+59
33.3%
Charlie Scott punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Melquise Stovall at the HAWAII 26 HAWAII Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Melquise Stovall) to the Hawa 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 11END OF HALF
6 plays · 18 yds · 0:0031% → 30%
Q2 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+9
31.0%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Cedric Byrd II for 9 yds to the Hawa 22Similar
Q2 1:18
2ND & 1
OWN 22
+8
31.4%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Cedric Byrd II for 8 yds to the Hawa 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
31.4%
Cole McDonald pass incomplete to Jared SmartSimilar
Q2 1:18
2ND & 10
OWN 30
-5
31.1%
HAWAII Penalty, false start (J.R. Hensley) to the Hawa 25Similar
Q2 1:18
2ND & 15
OWN 25
-3
31.0%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Fred Holly III for a loss of 3 yards to the Hawa 22Similar
Q2 1:18
3RD & 18
OWN 22
+9
30.4%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Jason-Matthew Sharsh for 9 yds to the Hawa 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 12TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 7:4169% → 85%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
30.8%
Mike Schmidt run for no gain to the AFA 25Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
31.3%
Mike Schmidt pass incomplete to Daniel MorrisSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+16
32.0%
Mike Schmidt pass complete to Taven Birdow for 16 yds to the AFA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+8
29.2%
Mike Schmidt run for 8 yds to the AFA 49Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 49
+8
28.9%
Timothy Jackson run for 8 yds to the Hawa 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+8
28.8%
Timothy Jackson run for 8 yds to the Hawa 35Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 35
+3
28.4%
Timothy Jackson run for 3 yds to the Hawa 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
28.5%
Taven Birdow run for 3 yds to the Hawa 29Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 29
-2
28.4%
N/A run for a loss of 2 yards to the Hawa 31Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 31
+13
29.2%
Kadin Remsberg run for 13 yds to the Hawa 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+4
28.4%
Taven Birdow run for 4 yds to the Hawa 14Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 14
+4
28.4%
Mike Schmidt run for 4 yds to the Hawa 10Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 10
0
29.2%
Timothy Jackson run for no gain to the Hawa 10Similar
Q3 7:19
4TH & 2
OPP 10
+10
15.4%
Timothy Jackson run for 10 yds for a TD, (Jake Koehnke KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 13PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 0:0020% → 19%
Q3 7:13
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+9
19.8%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Jared Smart for 9 yds to the AFA 49Similar
Q3 7:13
2ND & 1
OPP 49
+8
20.7%
Cole McDonald pass complete to JoJo Ward for 8 yds to the AFA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:13
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
20.4%
Fred Holly III run for no gain to the AFA 41Similar
Q3 7:13
2ND & 10
OPP 41
-2
20.1%
Cole McDonald sacked by Mosese Fifita for a loss of 2 yards to the AFA 43 Cole McDonald fumbled, recovered by Hawa Cole McDonald , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q3 7:13
3RD & 12
OPP 43
0
19.3%
Cole McDonald pass incomplete to Cedric Byrd IISimilar
Q3 7:13
4TH & 12
OPP 43
0
18.6%
Stan Gaudion punt for 23 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the AFA 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · -14 yds · 0:0085% → 84%
Q3 7:13
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
15.5%
Taven Birdow run for 1 yd to the AFA 22Similar
Q3 7:13
2ND & 9
OWN 22
-6
15.6%
Geraud Sanders run for a loss of 6 yards to the AFA 16 Geraud Sanders fumbled,Similar
Q3 7:13
3RD & 15
OWN 16
-5
16.1%
AIR FORCE Penalty, illegal procedure (Mike Schmidt) to the AFA 11Similar
Q3 7:13
3RD & 20
OWN 11
-5
16.1%
AIR FORCE Penalty, false start (Lesley Dalger) to the AFA 6Similar
Q3 7:13
3RD & 25
OWN 6
+1
16.2%
Taven Birdow run for 1 yd to the AFA 7Similar
Q3 7:13
4TH & 24
OWN 7
0
16.4%
Charlie Scott punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Cedric Byrd II at the Hawa 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 15TD
11 plays · 58 yds · 2:2717% → 30%
Q3 2:21
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
16.7%
Cole McDonald pass incomplete to Cedric Byrd IISimilar
Q3 2:21
2ND & 10
OWN 42
0
16.3%
Cole McDonald pass incomplete to Cedric Byrd IISimilar
Q3 2:21
3RD & 10
OWN 42
+10
15.7%
AIR FORCE Penalty, Defensive holding (Zane Lewis) to the AFA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:21
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
17.2%
Cole McDonald pass incomplete to JoJo WardSimilar
Q3 2:21
2ND & 10
OPP 48
0
17.1%
Cole McDonald pass incomplete to Jared Smart, broken up by Zane LewisSimilar
Q3 2:21
3RD & 10
OPP 48
+13
16.6%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Cedric Byrd II for 13 yds to the AFA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:21
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
18.0%
Cole McDonald pass incomplete to JoJo WardSimilar
Q3 2:21
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+9
17.8%
Cole McDonald run for 9 yds to the AFA 26Similar
Q3 2:21
3RD & 1
OPP 26
+3
17.8%
Cole McDonald run for 3 yds to the AFA 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:21
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+13
18.2%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Jared Smart for 13 yds to the AFA 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
29.7%
Cole McDonald pass complete to JoJo Ward for 10 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 16TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:1777% → 92%
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
23.1%
Kadin Remsberg run for 4 yds to the AFA 29Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+10
22.7%
Kadin Remsberg run for 10 yds to the AFA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+61
8.4%
Mike Schmidt run for 61 yds for a TD, (Jake Koehnke KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 17FUMBLE
9 plays · 22 yds · 0:0012% → 14%
Q4 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-7
12.1%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Jared Smart for 5 yds to the Hawa 25 HAWAII Penalty, personal foul (J.R. Hensley) to the Hawa 13Similar
Q4 13:33
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+9
12.8%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Jason-Matthew Sharsh for 9 yds to the Hawa 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:33
2ND & 17
OWN 13
+16
11.9%
Cole McDonald pass complete to JoJo Ward for 16 yds to the Hawa 29Similar
Q4 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
13.4%
Cole McDonald pass incomplete to Jared SmartSimilar
Q4 13:33
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
13.0%
Cole McDonald pass incomplete to Cedric Byrd IISimilar
Q4 13:33
3RD & 10
OWN 38
0
12.5%
Cole McDonald pass incomplete to Jason-Matthew Sharsh, broken up by Jeremy FejedelemSimilar
Q4 13:33
4TH & 10
OWN 38
+10
12.1%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Cedric Byrd II for 10 yds to the Hawa 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-6
13.8%
Cole McDonald sacked by Demonte Meeks for a loss of 6 yards to the Hawa 42 Cole McDonald fumbled, recovered by AFA Mosese Fifita , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 18TD
7 plays · 42 yds · 3:3294% → 99%
Q4 11:21
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+9
6.5%
Kadin Remsberg run for 9 yds to the Hawa 33Similar
Q4 11:21
2ND & 1
OPP 33
+3
6.3%
Timothy Jackson run for 3 yds to the Hawa 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:21
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
6.4%
Mike Schmidt run for 2 yds to the Hawa 28Similar
Q4 11:21
2ND & 8
OPP 28
+5
6.3%
Joshua Stoner run for 5 yds to the Hawa 23Similar
Q4 11:21
3RD & 3
OPP 23
+3
6.5%
Timothy Jackson run for 3 yds to the Hawa 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:21
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+2
6.3%
Timothy Jackson run for 2 yds to the Hawa 18Similar
Q4 7:49
2ND & 8
OPP 18
+18
1.2%
Mike Schmidt run for 18 yds for a TD, (Jake Koehnke KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 19INT TD
10 plays · 79 yds · 3:442% → 0%
Q4 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+16
1.7%
Miles Reed run for 16 yds to the Hawa 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+6
1.8%
Cole McDonald run for 6 yds to the Hawa 39Similar
Q4 7:45
2ND & 4
OWN 39
+7
1.8%
Cole McDonald pass complete to James Phillips for 7 yds to the Hawa 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+25
1.8%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Jared Smart for 25 yds to the AFA 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:45
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
2.2%
Cole McDonald pass incomplete to JoJo WardSimilar
Q4 7:45
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+3
2.1%
Cole McDonald pass complete to James Phillips for 3 yds to the AFA 26Similar
Q4 7:45
3RD & 7
OPP 26
+7
2.1%
Cole McDonald run for 7 yds to the AFA 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:45
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+15
2.2%
Cole McDonald run for 15 yds to the AFA 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+92
0.2%
Cole McDonald pass intercepted for a TD Milton Bugg III return for 92 yds for a TD, (Jake Koehnke KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
0.2%
Fred Holly III run for 5 yds to the Hawa 31Similar
Q4 3:54
2ND & 5
OWN 31
-3
0.2%
Chevan Cordeiro sacked by Christopher Musselman for a loss of 3 yards to the Hawa 28Similar
Q4 3:54
3RD & 8
OWN 28
0
0.2%
Chevan Cordeiro pass incomplete to Nick MardnerSimilar
Q4 3:54
4TH & 8
OWN 28
0
0.2%
Ben Scruton punt for 65 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 21END OF GAME
4 plays · 10 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 2:19
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+6
0.2%
Matthew Murla run for 6 yds to the AFA 14Similar
Q4 2:19
2ND & 4
OWN 14
+1
0.2%
Matthew Murla run for 1 yd to the AFA 15Similar
Q4 2:19
3RD & 3
OWN 15
+4
0.2%
Matthew Murla run for 4 yds to the AFA 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:19
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-1
0.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 13:37
Mike Schmidt run for 61 yds for a TD, (Jake Koehnke KICK)
-14.3
TD · Q3 7:19
Timothy Jackson run for 10 yds for a TD, (Jake Koehnke KICK)
-13.8
TD · Q4 14:54
Cole McDonald pass complete to JoJo Ward for 10 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )
+11.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com