Try the model
UNM

New Mexico 33 at Hawai'i 39

HAW
2020 · Week 10 · Nov 7, 2020 · Aloha Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · HAW
modelHAW aheadUNM aheadconfidence bandkey playHAW scoreUNM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDFGTDTDTDTDFGTDFGFGEnd of GameFG+4HAW 90.7%Matthew Shipley 41 yd FG GOODAWAY 30 - HOME 39 · Q4 6:33
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 6:33 · Matthew Shipley 41 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+31.5+15.80−15.8−31.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 163Pregame prior+3.8Home team on offense+20.3Garbage-time factor+12.6Score differential+2.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+2.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 13:05: Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Zion Bowens for 42 yds for a TD (Matthew Shipley KICK) — HAW win probability +12.2 pts (now 76%) (top driver: HAW has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 9:33: Nathaniel Jones run for 26 yds for a TD (George Steinkamp KICK) — UNM win probability +15.1 pts (now 33%) (top driver: UNM has the ball).
  3. FG · Q4 13:31: George Steinkamp 24 yd FG GOOD — UNM win probability +13.2 pts (now 50%) (top driver: UNM has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 12:19: Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Calvin Turner for 64 yds for a TD (Chevan Cordeiro pass to Jared Smart for Two-Point Conversion) — HAW win probability +27.4 pts (now 84%) (top driver: HAW has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 1:21: George Steinkamp 42 yd FG GOOD — UNM win probability +9.3 pts (now 14%) (top driver: UNM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
HAW made the numbers' call on 3 of 6UNM made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
  1. Q1 5:34UNM 4th & 8 at HAW 9, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 20.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.3%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    20.4%
    89% to make
    Punt
    19.4%−1.0
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:01HAW 4th & 3 at HAW 36, down 10
    Close callPunted · 75.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:50UNM 4th & 11 at HAW 31, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 27.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.4%−0.3
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    27.8%
    54% to make
    Punt
    27.3%−0.5
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:45HAW 4th & 6 at HAW 36, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.1%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.4%
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:04UNM 4th & 1 at UNM 44, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 32.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    33.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    31.6%−1.6
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:04UNM 4th & 12 at UNM 49, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.9%−1.0
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.9%
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:18HAW 4th & 1 at UNM 49, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 63.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    63.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    62.7%−1.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:48UNM 4th & 2 at UNM 47, up 6
    Close callPunted · 37.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.7%−1.0
    average punt
  9. Q3 13:05UNM 4th & 6 at UNM 5, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.0%−1.2
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.2%
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:33HAW 4th & 1 at HAW 34, up 1
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsPunted · 72.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.1%−1.5
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:19UNM 4th & 11 at HAW 29, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 29.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.0%−1.8
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    28.8%
    58% to make
    Punt
    20.1%−8.7
    average punt
  12. Q4 13:31UNM 4th & 7 at HAW 7, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 33.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.9%−1.3
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    33.2%
    91% to make
    Punt
    17.9%−15.3
    average punt
  13. Q4 12:19UNM 4th & 6 at UNM 29, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.3%−0.3
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.7%
    average punt
  14. Q4 6:33HAW 4th & 3 at UNM 24, up 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsKicked a field goal · 87.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    86.0%−1.5
    68% to make
    Punt
    77.2%−10.3
    average punt
  15. Q4 3:13HAW 4th & 4 at HAW 25, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.2%−0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.4%
    average punt
  16. Q4 1:21UNM 4th & 12 at HAW 25, down 9
    Close callKicked a field goal · 6.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.8%
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    5.6%−0.2
    66% to make
    Punt
    4.1%−1.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
HAW made the numbers' call on 5 of 5UNM made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 14:19UNM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    17.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    17.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 10:21HAW Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 4:10UNM Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 3:55HAW Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 13:05HAW Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 11:55HAW Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 9:33UNM Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    28.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 12:19HAW Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    75.6%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    75.8%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNMDrive 1TD
4 plays · 65 yds · 0:4119% → 19%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
81.5%
Tevaka Tuioti pass complete to Emmanuel Logan-Greene for 6 yds to the NMex 41Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+7
81.5%
Tevaka Tuioti pass complete to Andrew Erickson for 7 yds to the NMex 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:19
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+52
81.1%
Tevaka Tuioti pass complete to Jordan Kress for 52 yds for a TD (George Steinkamp KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 2TD
15 plays · 67 yds · 3:5581% → 81%
Q1 14:16
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+8
81.2%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Melquise Stovall for 8 yds to the Hawa 41Similar
Q1 14:16
2ND & 2
OWN 41
+4
81.2%
Chevan Cordeiro run for 4 yds to the Hawa 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:16
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
81.2%
Chevan Cordeiro pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:16
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+5
81.2%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Melquise Stovall for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 14:16
3RD & 5
50
+7
81.2%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Jared Smart for 7 yds to the NMex 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:16
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+12
81.2%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Nick Mardner for 12 yds to the NMex 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:16
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+7
81.2%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Jared Smart for 7 yds to the NMex 24Similar
Q1 14:16
2ND & 3
OPP 24
+5
81.2%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Rico Bussey for 5 yds to the NMex 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:16
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
81.2%
Chevan Cordeiro pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:16
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+5
81.2%
NEW MEXICO Penalty, Defensive offside (Kameron Miller) to the NMex 14Similar
Q1 14:16
2ND & 5
OPP 14
+7
81.2%
Chevan Cordeiro run for 7 yds to the NMex 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
81.2%
Melquise Stovall run for 2 yds to the NMex 5Similar
Q1 10:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
80.7%
Chevan Cordeiro run for 5 yds for a TD (Matthew Shipley KICK)Similar
Q1 10:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
80.7%
NEW MEXICO Penalty, Defensive offside (2 Yards) to the NMex 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 3FG
11 plays · 61 yds · 4:3920% → 22%
Q1 10:13
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
80.1%
Nathaniel Jones run for 4 yds to the NMex 34Similar
Q1 10:13
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+19
80.0%
Tevaka Tuioti pass complete to Emmanuel Logan-Greene for 19 yds to the Hawa 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:13
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+17
79.8%
Bobby Cole run for 17 yds to the Hawa 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:13
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
79.7%
Tevaka Tuioti pass incomplete to Bryson CarrollSimilar
Q1 10:13
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+9
79.8%
Tevaka Tuioti pass complete to Bryson Carroll for 9 yds to the Hawa 21Similar
Q1 10:13
3RD & 1
OPP 21
+10
79.8%
Tevaka Tuioti run for 10 yds to the Hawa 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:13
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+3
79.7%
Bobby Cole run for 3 yds to the Hawa 8Similar
Q1 10:13
2ND & 7
OPP 8
-1
79.7%
Nathaniel Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the Hawa 9Similar
Q1 10:13
3RD & 8
OPP 9
0
79.8%
Tevaka Tuioti pass incomplete to Emmanuel Logan-GreeneSimilar
Q1 5:34
4TH & 8
OPP 9
+27
78.0%
George Steinkamp 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 4INT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0078% → 78%
Q1 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
77.8%
Chevan Cordeiro run for 3 yds to the Hawa 29Similar
Q1 5:30
2ND & 7
OWN 29
0
77.9%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Calvin Turner for no gain to the Hawa 29Similar
Q1 5:30
3RD & 7
OWN 29
-25
77.6%
Chevan Cordeiro pass intercepted Jerrick Reed II return for 25 yds to the Hawa 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 5TD
1 play · 29 yds · 0:0026% → 26%
Q1 4:10
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+29
74.0%
Tevaka Tuioti pass complete to Jordan Kress for 29 yds for a TD (George Steinkamp KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0075% → 75%
Q1 4:01
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+7
75.0%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Rico Bussey for 7 yds to the Hawa 36Similar
Q1 4:01
2ND & 3
OWN 36
-1
75.3%
Miles Reed run for a loss of 1 yard to the Hawa 35Similar
Q1 4:01
3RD & 4
OWN 35
+1
74.8%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Miles Reed for 1 yd to the Hawa 36Similar
Q1 4:01
4TH & 3
OWN 36
0
74.7%
Adam Stack punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NMex 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 7FG
7 plays · 46 yds · 2:2527% → 32%
Q1 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+6
72.9%
Daevon Vigilant run for 6 yds to the NMex 29Similar
Q1 2:15
2ND & 4
OWN 29
+41
72.5%
Nathaniel Jones run for 41 yds to the Hawa 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:15
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
72.1%
Nathaniel Jones run for 3 yds to the Hawa 27Similar
Q1 2:15
2ND & 7
OPP 27
-5
72.1%
NEW MEXICO Penalty, delay of game (Tevaka Tuioti) to the Hawa 32Similar
Q1 2:15
2ND & 12
OPP 32
+1
72.2%
Tevaka Tuioti pass complete to Emmanuel Logan-Greene for 1 yd to the Hawa 31Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 11
OPP 31
0
70.5%
Tevaka Tuioti pass incomplete to Jordan KressSimilar
Q2 14:50
4TH & 11
OPP 31
+49
68.0%
George Steinkamp 49 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0069% → 69%
Q2 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
69.3%
Chevan Cordeiro pass incomplete to Miles ReedSimilar
Q2 14:45
2ND & 10
OWN 32
0
69.2%
Chevan Cordeiro run for no gain to the Hawa 32Similar
Q2 14:45
3RD & 10
OWN 32
+4
68.7%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Miles Reed for 4 yds to the Hawa 36Similar
Q2 14:45
4TH & 6
OWN 36
+45
68.9%
Adam Stack punt for 45 yds , Emmanuel Logan-Greene returns for a loss of 1 yard to the NMex 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 9PUNT
11 plays · 31 yds · 0:0034% → 34%
Q2 13:04
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
66.1%
Tevaka Tuioti pass incomplete to Emmanuel Logan-GreeneSimilar
Q2 13:04
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+6
66.2%
Tevaka Tuioti pass complete to Bryson Carroll for 6 yds to the NMex 24Similar
Q2 13:04
3RD & 4
OWN 24
+11
66.3%
Tevaka Tuioti pass complete to Emmanuel Logan-Greene for 11 yds to the NMex 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:04
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
65.9%
Bryson Carroll run for 6 yds to the NMex 41Similar
Q2 13:04
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+3
65.3%
Nathaniel Jones run for 3 yds to the NMex 44Similar
Q2 13:04
3RD & 1
OWN 44
0
65.6%
Bobby Cole run for no gain to the NMex 44Similar
Q2 13:04
4TH & 1
OWN 44
+7
66.0%
Bobby Cole run for 7 yds to the Hawa 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:04
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
65.3%
Tevaka Tuioti pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:04
2ND & 10
OPP 49
-2
65.3%
Nathaniel Jones run for a loss of 2 yards to the NMex 49Similar
Q2 13:04
3RD & 12
OWN 49
0
65.7%
Tevaka Tuioti pass incomplete to Emmanuel Logan-GreeneSimilar
Q2 13:04
4TH & 12
OWN 49
0
66.4%
Tyson Dyer punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Melquise Stovall at the Hawa 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 10TD
11 plays · 89 yds · 4:2362% → 67%
Q2 8:18
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+3
61.5%
Dae Dae Hunter run for 3 yds to the Hawa 14Similar
Q2 8:18
2ND & 7
OWN 14
+11
61.6%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Nick Mardner for 11 yds to the Hawa 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
61.7%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Jared Smart for 7 yds to the Hawa 32Similar
Q2 8:18
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+2
62.4%
Dae Dae Hunter run for 2 yds to the Hawa 34Similar
Q2 8:18
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+8
62.0%
Dae Dae Hunter run for 8 yds to the Hawa 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:18
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
62.5%
Chevan Cordeiro run for 6 yds to the Hawa 48Similar
Q2 8:18
2ND & 4
OWN 48
+3
63.0%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Jared Smart for 3 yds to the NMex 49Similar
Q2 8:18
3RD & 1
OPP 49
0
63.1%
Dae Dae Hunter run for no gain to the NMex 49Similar
Q2 8:18
4TH & 1
OPP 49
+3
62.5%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Dae Dae Hunter for 3 yds to the NMex 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:18
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
63.2%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Jared Smart for 4 yds to the NMex 42Similar
Q2 3:55
2ND & 6
OPP 42
+42
67.1%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Nick Mardner for 42 yds for a TD (Matthew Shipley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0040% → 38%
Q2 3:48
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
60.3%
Tevaka Tuioti pass incomplete to Marcus WilliamsSimilar
Q2 3:48
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+3
60.6%
Bobby Cole run for 3 yds to the NMex 42Similar
Q2 3:48
3RD & 7
OWN 42
0
60.8%
Tevaka Tuioti pass complete to Cedric Patterson IIISimilar
Q2 3:48
4TH & 2
OWN 47
0
61.6%
Tyson Dyer punt for 48 yds, downed at the Hawa 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 12INT
11 plays · 72 yds · 1:4662% → 64%
Q2 2:02
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+12
62.1%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Jared Smart for 12 yds to the Hawa 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:02
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-4
62.6%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Melquise Stovall for a loss of 4 yards to the Hawa 13Similar
Q2 2:02
2ND & 14
OWN 13
0
62.3%
Chevan Cordeiro pass incomplete to Melquise StovallSimilar
Q2 2:02
3RD & 14
OWN 13
+42
61.3%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Nick Mardner for 42 yds to the NMex 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:02
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
65.6%
Calvin Turner pass incomplete to Dae Dae HunterSimilar
Q2 2:02
2ND & 10
OPP 45
0
65.4%
Chevan Cordeiro pass incomplete to Rico Bussey, broken up by Patrick PeekSimilar
Q2 2:02
3RD & 10
OPP 45
+11
63.8%
Chevan Cordeiro run for 11 yds to the NMex 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:02
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+11
66.6%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Rico Bussey for 11 yds to the NMex 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:16
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
64.1%
Chevan Cordeiro pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:16
2ND & 10
OPP 23
-3
64.0%
Chevan Cordeiro pass intercepted Jerrick Reed II return for 3 yds to the NMex 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 13END OF HALF
1 play · 8 yds · 0:0041% → 41%
Q2 0:03
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+8
58.6%
Emmanuel Logan-Greene run for 8 yds to the NMex 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 14TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:5561% → 76%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
61.0%
Chevan Cordeiro run for 6 yds to the Hawa 31Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+5
62.5%
Miles Reed run for 5 yds to the Hawa 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+19
61.7%
Miles Reed run for 19 yds to the NMex 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
64.2%
Miles Reed run for 3 yds to the NMex 42Similar
Q3 13:05
2ND & 7
OPP 42
+42
76.4%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Zion Bowens for 42 yds for a TD (Matthew Shipley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0027% → 25%
Q3 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+4
73.2%
Bobby Cole run for 4 yds to the NMex 5Similar
Q3 13:05
2ND & 6
OWN 5
0
73.5%
Tevaka Tuioti pass incomplete to Andrew Erickson, broken up by Sterlin OrtizSimilar
Q3 13:05
3RD & 6
OWN 5
0
74.4%
Tevaka Tuioti pass incomplete to Emmanuel Logan-GreeneSimilar
Q3 13:05
4TH & 6
OWN 5
+9
75.2%
Tyson Dyer punt for 44 yds , Melquise Stovall returns for 9 yds to the NMex 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 16TD
2 plays · 40 yds · 0:1376% → 85%
Q3 12:08
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
76.0%
Chevan Cordeiro pass incomplete to Rico BusseySimilar
Q3 11:55
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+40
84.6%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Zion Bowens for 40 yds for a TD (Matthew Shipley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 17TD
9 plays · 76 yds · 2:1718% → 33%
Q3 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+7
82.1%
Bobby Cole run for 7 yds to the NMex 31Similar
Q3 11:50
2ND & 3
OWN 31
+7
81.2%
Bobby Cole run for 7 yds to the NMex 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:50
3RD & 6
OWN 42
+30
81.4%
Bobby Cole run for 30 yds to the Hawa 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:50
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+2
78.6%
Bobby Cole run for 2 yds to the Hawa 26Similar
Q3 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
81.3%
Tevaka Tuioti pass complete to Emmanuel Logan-Greene for 2 yds to the NMex 40Similar
Q3 11:50
2ND & 8
OWN 40
-10
81.1%
NEW MEXICO Penalty, Offensive holding (Jordan Kress) to the NMex 30Similar
Q3 11:50
2ND & 18
OWN 30
+12
82.3%
Tevaka Tuioti pass complete to Jordan Kress for 12 yds to the NMex 42Similar
Q3 9:33
2ND & 8
OPP 26
+26
67.2%
Nathaniel Jones run for 26 yds for a TD (George Steinkamp KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0073% → 72%
Q3 9:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
72.6%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Dae Dae Hunter for 8 yds to the Hawa 33Similar
Q3 9:33
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+1
74.1%
Dae Dae Hunter run for 1 yd to the Hawa 34Similar
Q3 9:33
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
73.1%
Dae Dae Hunter run for no gain to the Hawa 34Similar
Q3 9:33
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
71.5%
Adam Stack punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Emmanuel Logan-Greene at the NMex 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 19MISSED FG
11 plays · 50 yds · 3:3629% → 30%
Q3 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
71.2%
Nathaniel Jones run for 2 yds to the NMex 23Similar
Q3 7:55
2ND & 8
OWN 23
-2
71.4%
Nathaniel Jones run for a loss of 2 yards to the NMex 21Similar
Q3 7:55
3RD & 10
OWN 21
+21
72.8%
Tevaka Tuioti run for 21 yds to the NMex 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+10
68.9%
Tevaka Tuioti pass complete to Emmanuel Logan-Greene for 10 yds to the Hawa 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:55
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
67.8%
Tevaka Tuioti pass incomplete to Jordan KressSimilar
Q3 7:55
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+10
68.2%
Bobby Cole run for 10 yds to the Hawa 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:55
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+10
67.8%
HAWAII Penalty, Defensive holding (Khoury Bethley) to the Hawa 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:55
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-1
66.3%
Bobby Cole run for a loss of 1 yard to the Hawa 29Similar
Q3 7:55
2ND & 11
OPP 29
0
66.7%
Tevaka Tuioti pass incomplete to Marcus Williams, broken up by Isaiah TufagaSimilar
Q3 7:55
3RD & 11
OPP 29
0
68.6%
Tevaka Tuioti pass incomplete to Marcus WilliamsSimilar
Q3 4:19
4TH & 11
OPP 29
+46
70.0%
George Steinkamp 46 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 20FUMBLE
5 plays · 22 yds · 0:0071% → 72%
Q3 4:19
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
70.9%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Rico Bussey for 5 yds to the Hawa 34Similar
Q3 4:19
2ND & 5
OWN 34
+6
72.1%
Chevan Cordeiro run for 6 yds to the Hawa 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:19
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+15
72.7%
NEW MEXICO Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Letayveon Beaton) to the NMex 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:19
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-5
74.3%
HAWAII Penalty, ineligible downfield on pass (Michael Eletise) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 4:19
1ST & 15
50
+1
72.3%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Melquise Stovall for 1 yd Melquise Stovall fumbled, forced by Kameron Miller, recovered by NMex Ian ShewellSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 21FG
10 plays · 44 yds · 4:1735% → 50%
Q3 2:48
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+12
65.4%
Tevaka Tuioti run for 12 yds to the Hawa 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:48
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+6
65.1%
Nathaniel Jones run for 6 yds to the Hawa 33Similar
Q3 2:48
2ND & 4
OPP 33
+10
63.4%
Nathaniel Jones run for 10 yds to the Hawa 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:48
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+5
63.4%
Nathaniel Jones run for 5 yds to the Hawa 18Similar
Q3 2:48
2ND & 5
OPP 18
+4
63.4%
Bryson Carroll run for 4 yds to the Hawa 14Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 14
+7
63.3%
Bobby Cole run for 7 yds to the Hawa 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
61.7%
Bobby Cole run for no gain to the Hawa 7Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
61.7%
Tevaka Tuioti pass incomplete to Emmanuel Logan-Greene, broken up by Donovan DaltonSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
63.4%
Tevaka Tuioti pass incomplete to Kyle Jarvis, broken up by Justus TavaiSimilar
Q4 13:31
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+24
50.3%
George Steinkamp 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 22TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:1257% → 84%
Q4 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
56.7%
Miles Reed run for 1 yd to the Hawa 26Similar
Q4 13:31
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+10
56.5%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Nick Mardner for 10 yds to the Hawa 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:19
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+64
83.9%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Calvin Turner for 64 yds for a TD (Chevan Cordeiro pass to Jared Smart for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 23PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 0:0025% → 23%
Q4 12:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
75.4%
Tevaka Tuioti run for 5 yds to the NMex 30Similar
Q4 12:19
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+1
74.3%
Nathaniel Jones run for 1 yd to the NMex 31Similar
Q4 12:19
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+3
75.4%
Tevaka Tuioti pass complete to Emmanuel Logan-Greene for 3 yds to the NMex 34Similar
Q4 12:19
4TH & 1
OWN 34
-5
76.0%
NEW MEXICO Penalty, false start (Austin Cook) to the NMex 29Similar
Q4 12:19
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
77.5%
Tyson Dyer punt for 50 yds, downed at the Hawa 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 24FG
9 plays · 55 yds · 3:2085% → 91%
Q4 9:53
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+8
85.4%
Dae Dae Hunter run for 8 yds to the Hawa 29Similar
Q4 9:53
2ND & 2
OWN 29
+7
86.1%
Dae Dae Hunter run for 7 yds to the Hawa 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:53
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-9
86.2%
Chevan Cordeiro sacked by Jake Saltonstall for a loss of 9 yards to the Hawa 27Similar
Q4 9:53
2ND & 19
OWN 27
+12
85.0%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Dae Dae Hunter for 12 yds to the Hawa 39Similar
Q4 9:53
3RD & 7
OWN 39
+30
85.5%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Nick Mardner for 30 yds to the NMex 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:53
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+3
87.7%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Dae Dae Hunter for 3 yds to the NMex 28Similar
Q4 9:53
2ND & 7
OPP 28
+4
87.7%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Lincoln Victor for 4 yds to the NMex 24Similar
Q4 9:53
3RD & 3
OPP 24
0
86.8%
Chevan Cordeiro pass incomplete to Lincoln VictorSimilar
Q4 6:33
4TH & 3
OPP 24
+41
90.7%
Matthew Shipley 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 25INT
8 plays · 47 yds · 0:0010% → 13%
Q4 6:27
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+4
90.1%
Tevaka Tuioti pass complete to Daevon Vigilant for 4 yds to the NMex 21Similar
Q4 6:27
2ND & 6
OWN 21
+9
90.2%
Tevaka Tuioti pass complete to Daevon Vigilant for 9 yds to the NMex 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:27
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-4
89.1%
Tevaka Tuioti pass complete to Daevon Vigilant for a loss of 4 yards to the NMex 26Similar
Q4 6:27
2ND & 14
OWN 26
+23
90.5%
Tevaka Tuioti run for 23 yds to the NMex 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:27
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+15
87.6%
HAWAII Penalty, targeting (Cameron Lockridge) to the Hawa 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:27
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
87.3%
Trae Hall pass incomplete to Jordan KressSimilar
Q4 6:27
2ND & 10
OPP 36
0
87.4%
Trae Hall pass intercepted Quentin Frazier return for no gain to the Hawa 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 26PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 0:5992% → 94%
Q4 4:12
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+1
91.6%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Rico Bussey for 1 yd to the Hawa 20Similar
Q4 4:12
2ND & 9
OWN 20
+2
91.5%
Calvin Turner run for 2 yds to the Hawa 22Similar
Q4 3:21
3RD & 7
OWN 22
+3
93.4%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Dae Dae Hunter for 3 yds to the Hawa 25Similar
Q4 3:13
4TH & 4
OWN 25
+9
93.8%
Adam Stack punt for 40 yds , Emmanuel Logan-Greene returns for 9 yds to the NMex 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 27FG
8 plays · 31 yds · 1:415% → 14%
Q4 3:02
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-6
95.1%
Trae Hall sacked by Jonah Laulu for a loss of 6 yards to the NMex 38Similar
Q4 3:02
2ND & 16
OWN 38
+20
95.7%
Trae Hall pass complete to Andrew Erickson for 20 yds to the Hawa 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:02
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+19
94.6%
Trae Hall pass complete to Bryson Carroll for 19 yds to the Hawa 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:06
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
94.7%
Trae Hall pass incomplete to Cedric Patterson IIISimilar
Q4 2:06
2ND & 10
OPP 23
-2
95.1%
Trae Hall sacked by Darius Muasau and Mason Mataafa for a loss of 2 yards to the Hawa 25Similar
Q4 2:06
3RD & 12
OPP 25
0
95.5%
Trae Hall pass incomplete to Cedric Patterson IIISimilar
Q4 1:21
4TH & 12
OPP 25
+42
86.2%
George Steinkamp 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 28END OF GAME
5 plays · -6 yds · 0:0796% → 95%
Q4 1:21
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-2
95.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the NMex 49Similar
Q4 1:14
2ND & 12
OPP 49
-2
95.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Hawa 49Similar
Q4 1:14
3RD & 14
OWN 49
-2
95.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Hawa 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 12:19
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Calvin Turner for 64 yds for a TD (Chevan Cordeiro pass to Jared Smart for Two-Point Conversion)
+27.4
TD · Q3 9:33
Nathaniel Jones run for 26 yds for a TD (George Steinkamp KICK)
-15.1
FG · Q4 13:31
George Steinkamp 24 yd FG GOOD
-13.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com