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Win probability · HAW
modelHAW aheadUNLV aheadconfidence bandkey playHAW scoreUNLV score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 7:27 · Adam Stack punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Kyle Williams at the UNLV 10
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 1:45: Calvin Turner run for 28 yds for a TD (Matthew Shipley KICK) — HAW win probability +8.1 pts (now 96%) (top driver: HAW has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:53: Max Gilliam pass complete to Kyle Williams for 19 yds for a TD (Daniel Gutierrez KICK) — UNLV win probability +6.5 pts (now 13%) (top driver: UNLV has the ball).
- TD · Q3 13:00: Koali Nishigaya run for 4 yds for a TD (Matthew Shipley KICK) — HAW win probability +6.4 pts (now 97%) (top driver: HAW has the ball).
- TD · Q3 9:34: Charles Williams run for 2 yds for a TD (Daniel Gutierrez KICK) — UNLV win probability +7.0 pts (now 13%) (top driver: UNLV has the ball).
- TD · Q3 0:12: Charles Williams run for 49 yds for a TD (Daniel Gutierrez KICK) — UNLV win probability +4.6 pts (now 7%) (top driver: UNLV has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
HAW made the numbers' call on 6 of 8UNLV made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
- Q1 15:00UNLV 4th & 20 at UNLV 15, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 11.5% before the snapGo for it11.3%−0.29% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call11.6%average punt
- Q1 12:36UNLV 4th & 8 at HAW 49, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.8% before the snapGo for it11.8%−<0.134% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call11.8%average punt
- Q1 10:50HAW 4th & 2 at UNLV 40, up 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 88.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call88.1%57% to convertField goal87.9%−0.234% to makePunt88.0%−0.1average punt
- Q1 7:58UNLV 4th & 10 at HAW 45, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.3% before the snapGo for it12.3%−<0.130% to convertField goal12.2%−0.125% to makePuntTheir call12.3%average punt
- Q1 6:07HAW 4th & 1 at HAW 15, up 7Close callPunted · 87.1% before the snapGo for it87.3%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call87.1%−0.2average punt
- Q1 3:02UNLV 4th & 6 at HAW 43, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call13.3%40% to convertField goal13.0%−0.228% to makePunt13.2%−0.1average punt
- Q2 13:27UNLV 4th & 10 at HAW 44, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.0% before the snapGo for it10.9%−0.230% to convertField goal10.6%−0.527% to makePuntTheir call11.1%average punt
- Q2 11:02HAW 4th & 10 at HAW 15, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.3% before the snapGo for it88.3%−0.828% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call89.2%average punt
- Q2 7:27HAW 4th & 8 at HAW 45, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.2% before the snapGo for it89.0%−0.334% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call89.3%average punt
- Q2 5:44UNLV 4th & 9 at UNLV 30, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.5% before the snapGo for it10.1%−0.531% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call10.6%average punt
- Q2 0:42HAW 4th & 1 at HAW 20, up 14Close callPunted · 89.9% before the snapGo for it89.5%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call89.4%−0.1average punt
- Q3 6:59UNLV 4th & 6 at UNLV 27, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.5% before the snapGo for it8.7%−0.439% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call9.1%average punt
- Q3 2:28HAW 4th & 1 at UNLV 12, up 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 94.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call94.1%71% to convertField goal92.8%−1.386% to makePunt88.8%−5.4average punt
- Q4 8:45HAW 4th & 17 at UNLV 17, up 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 96.0% before the snapGo for it95.0%−1.113% to convertField goalTheir call96.1%80% to makePunt92.8%−3.3average punt
- Q4 8:45UNLV 4th & 9 at HAW 47, down 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call5.5%32% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt5.4%−0.1average punt
- Q4 3:05HAW 4th & 14 at UNLV 27, up 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 97.4% before the snapGo for it96.7%−0.518% to convertField goalTheir call97.2%62% to makePunt95.8%−1.4average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
HAW made the numbers' call on 5 of 5UNLV made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
- Q1 12:36HAW Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call88.2%97% to makeGo for two88.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 13:27HAW Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call89.0%97% to makeGo for two89.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:45HAW Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.1%97% to makeGo for two96.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:53UNLV Touchdown, down 15 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call8.5%97% to makeGo for two8.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 13:00HAW Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.6%97% to makeGo for two96.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 9:34UNLV Touchdown, down 15 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call8.3%97% to makeGo for two8.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 1:16HAW Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.7%97% to makeGo for two98.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 0:12UNLV Touchdown, down 15 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call5.4%97% to makeGo for two5.3%−0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartUNLVDrive 1PUNT5 plays · -10 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
HAWDrive 2TD2 plays · 58 yds · 0:3885% → 85%
UNLVDrive 3PUNT7 plays · 26 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
Q1 12:36
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+20
84.9%
Doug Brumfield pass complete to Giovanni Fauolo Sr. for 20 yds to the UNLV 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:36
2ND & 8
OPP 49
0
84.8%
Doug Brumfield pass incomplete to Zyell Griffin, broken up by Justus TavaiSimilar
Q1 12:36
4TH & 8
OPP 49
0
84.9%
Charlton Butt punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Dior Scott at the Hawa 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 4DOWNS9 plays · 43 yds · 0:0085% → 85%
Q1 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+8
84.8%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Melquise Stovall for 8 yds to the Hawa 25Similar
Q1 10:50
2ND & 2
OWN 25
+6
84.8%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Jared Smart for 6 yds to the Hawa 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:50
2ND & 1
OWN 40
+12
85.0%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Melquise Stovall for 12 yds to the UNLV 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 5PUNT6 plays · 15 yds · 0:0016% → 15%
Q1 7:58
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
84.1%
Doug Brumfield pass incomplete to Charles Williams, broken up by Jonah LauluSimilar
Q1 7:58
2ND & 10
OPP 45
0
84.1%
Doug Brumfield pass complete to Courtney Reese for no gain to the Hawa 45Similar
Q1 7:58
3RD & 10
OPP 45
0
84.3%
Doug Brumfield pass incomplete to Zyell Griffin, broken up by Quentin FrazierSimilar
Q1 7:58
4TH & 10
OPP 45
0
84.6%
Charlton Butt punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Dior Scott at the Hawa 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 6PUNT4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0084% → 84%
Q1 6:07
4TH & 1
OWN 15
0
84.0%
Adam Stack punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Kyle Williams at the UNLV 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 7DOWNS7 plays · 18 yds · 1:2516% → 16%
Q1 4:27
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-8
83.5%
Kyle Williams run for 2 yds to the UNLV 45 UNLV Penalty, Offensive holding (Zyell Griffin) to the UNLV 45Similar
Q1 4:27
1ST & 18
OWN 45
+5
83.9%
Doug Brumfield pass complete to Giovanni Fauolo Sr. for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 3:02
2ND & 13
50
+11
83.4%
Doug Brumfield pass complete to Kyle Williams for 11 yds to the Hawa 39Similar
Q1 3:02
3RD & 2
OPP 39
-4
83.0%
Doug Brumfield sacked by Justus Tavai for a loss of 4 yards to the Hawa 43Similar
Q1 3:02
4TH & 6
OPP 43
0
83.6%
Doug Brumfield pass incomplete to Kyle Williams, broken up by Khoury BethleySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 8TD10 plays · 57 yds · 3:0884% → 87%
Q1 1:35
3RD & 5
OWN 48
+12
83.9%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Jared Smart for 12 yds to the UNLV 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+6
84.3%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Jared Smart for 6 yds to the UNLV 15Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 19
+18
84.3%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Melquise Stovall for 16 yds to the UNLV 3 for a 1ST down UNLV Penalty, face mask (2 yards) (Ricky Johnson) to the UNLV 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 9PUNT9 plays · 31 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q2 13:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
86.1%
Doug Brumfield sacked by Darius Muasau for a loss of 1 yard to the UNLV 24Similar
Q2 13:27
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+22
86.2%
Doug Brumfield pass complete to Kyle Williams for 22 yds to the UNLV 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:27
4TH & 10
OPP 44
0
85.9%
Charlton Butt punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Dior Scott at the Hawa 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 10PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0087% → 86%
UNLVDrive 11FUMBLE1 play · -6 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q2 9:33
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-6
85.9%
Doug Brumfield run for a loss of 6 yards to the UNLV 39 Doug Brumfield fumbled, recovered by Hawa Justus TavaiSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 12FUMBLE2 plays · 19 yds · 0:0088% → 88%
Q2 9:27
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+13
87.8%
Miles Reed run for 1 yd to the UNLV 33 Miles Reed fumbled, forced by Farrell Hester II, recovered by UNLV Bryce Jackson , return for 13 yds to the UNLV 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 13FUMBLE5 plays · 24 yds · 0:0014% → 15%
Q2 8:46
3RD & 6
OWN 37
+10
86.2%
Max Gilliam pass complete to Kyle Williams for 10 yds to the UNLV 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:46
2ND & 5
OPP 48
+5
85.5%
Charles Williams run for 5 yds to the Hawa 43 Charles Williams fumbled, forced by Isaiah Tufaga, recovered by Hawa Isaiah TufagaSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 14PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0087% → 86%
Q2 7:27
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+6
87.2%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Nick Mardner for 6 yds to the Hawa 49Similar
Q2 7:27
3RD & 19
OWN 34
+11
86.1%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Melquise Stovall for 11 yds to the Hawa 45Similar
Q2 7:27
4TH & 8
OWN 45
0
86.2%
Adam Stack punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Kyle Williams at the UNLV 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 15PUNT6 plays · 20 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q2 5:44
4TH & 9
OWN 30
+2
87.2%
Charlton Butt punt for 39 yds , Dior Scott returns for 2 yds to the Hawa 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 16TD5 plays · 67 yds · 1:4787% → 96%
Q2 3:32
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+21
87.2%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Rico Bussey for 21 yds to the UNLV 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:32
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
88.0%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Jared Smart for 3 yds to the UNLV 41Similar
Q2 3:32
2ND & 7
OPP 41
+13
87.9%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Melquise Stovall for 13 yds to the UNLV 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 17TD8 plays · 75 yds · 0:526% → 13%
Q2 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
94.2%
Max Gilliam pass complete to Kyle Williams for 13 yds to the UNLV 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+22
93.9%
Max Gilliam pass complete to Zyell Griffin for 22 yds to the Hawa 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+17
93.2%
Max Gilliam pass complete to Kyle Williams for 17 yds to the Hawa 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:53
3RD & 6
OPP 19
+19
86.9%
Max Gilliam pass complete to Kyle Williams for 19 yds for a TD (Daniel Gutierrez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 18PUNT7 plays · 9 yds · 0:1089% → 90%
Q2 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 11
-5
89.1%
Chevan Cordeiro sacked by Kolo Uasike for a loss of 5 yards to the Hawa 6Similar
Q2 0:42
3RD & 6
OWN 15
+5
90.6%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Melquise Stovall for 5 yds to the Hawa 20Similar
Q2 0:42
4TH & 1
OWN 20
0
90.0%
Adam Stack punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Kyle Williams at the UNLV 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 19END OF HALF2 plays · 8 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
HAWDrive 20TD7 plays · 83 yds · 1:4690% → 97%
Q3 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+1
89.5%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Rico Bussey for 1 yd to the Hawa 18Similar
Q3 14:46
3RD & 7
OWN 20
+71
89.1%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Calvin Turner for 71 yds to the UNLV 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 14
+10
90.0%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Koali Nishigaya for 10 yds to the UNLV 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 21TD11 plays · 75 yds · 3:265% → 13%
Q3 13:00
3RD & 12
OPP 32
+14
95.1%
Max Gilliam pass complete to Kyle Williams for 14 yds to the Hawa 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:00
3RD & 11
OPP 19
+16
95.0%
Max Gilliam run for 13 yds to the Hawa 6 for a 1ST down HAWAII Penalty, targeting (Kai Kaneshiro) to the Hawa 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 22INT8 plays · 33 yds · 0:0091% → 91%
Q3 9:34
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-1
90.8%
Chevan Cordeiro sacked by Adam Plant Jr. for a loss of 1 yard to the Hawa 25Similar
Q3 9:34
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+15
90.4%
UNLV Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Bryce Jackson) to the Hawa 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:34
3RD & 7
OPP 42
0
90.9%
Chevan Cordeiro pass intercepted Nohl Williams return for no gain to the UNLV 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 23PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q3 6:59
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-11
90.0%
UNLV Penalty, Offensive pass interference (Giovanni Fauolo Sr.) to the UNLV 12Similar
Q3 6:59
1ST & 21
OWN 12
+6
90.1%
Max Gilliam pass complete to Charles Williams for 6 yds to the UNLV 18Similar
Q3 6:59
3RD & 6
OWN 27
0
90.2%
Max Gilliam pass incomplete to Kyle Williams, broken up by Michael WashingtonSimilar
Q3 6:59
4TH & 6
OWN 27
0
90.5%
Charlton Butt punt for 43 yds , Dior Scott returns for no gain to the Hawa 30 Dior Scott fumbled, forced by Davone Walden Jr., recovered by Hawa Cameron LockridgeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 24TD14 plays · 70 yds · 3:5192% → 99%
Q3 5:07
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+6
92.5%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Calvin Turner for 6 yds to the UNLV 40Similar
Q3 5:07
3RD & 4
OPP 40
+9
92.2%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Nick Mardner for 9 yds to the UNLV 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 12
+12
98.6%
Chevan Cordeiro run for 12 yds for a TD (Matthew Shipley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 25TD4 plays · 75 yds · 1:042% → 7%
Q3 1:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
98.1%
Charles Williams run for a loss of 2 yards to the UNLV 23 for a 1ST down HAWAII Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Khoury Bethley) to the UNLV 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:16
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+13
98.0%
Max Gilliam pass complete to Kyle Williams for 13 yds to the Hawa 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:12
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+49
93.4%
Charles Williams run for 49 yds for a TD (Daniel Gutierrez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 26MISSED FG19 plays · 47 yds · 6:2095% → 96%
UNLVDrive 27DOWNS8 plays · 35 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q4 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+16
95.9%
Max Gilliam pass complete to Kyle Williams for 16 yds to the UNLV 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
95.6%
Max Gilliam pass complete to Kyle Williams for 9 yds to the UNLV 45Similar
Q4 8:45
2ND & 16
OWN 46
0
96.0%
Max Gilliam pass incomplete to Zyell Griffin, broken up by Darius MuasauSimilar
Q4 8:45
3RD & 16
OWN 46
+7
96.0%
Max Gilliam pass complete to Marcus Phillips Jr. for 7 yds to the Hawa 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 28FG6 plays · 28 yds · 2:3998% → 99%
Q4 5:44
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+7
97.5%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Melquise Stovall for 7 yds to the UNLV 48Similar
Q4 5:44
2ND & 3
OPP 48
+25
97.5%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Miles Reed for 25 yds to the UNLV 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:44
3RD & 8
OPP 21
-6
97.5%
Chevan Cordeiro sacked by Aaron Lewis for a loss of 6 yards to the UNLV 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 29INT13 plays · 65 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
98.4%
Max Gilliam pass complete to Marcus Phillips Jr. for 10 yds to the UNLV 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+7
98.3%
Max Gilliam pass complete to Giovanni Fauolo Sr. for 7 yds to the Hawa 47Similar
Q4 3:05
2ND & 3
OPP 47
+5
98.1%
Max Gilliam pass complete to Charles Williams for 5 yds to the Hawa 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:05
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
97.8%
Max Gilliam pass incomplete to Marcus Phillips Jr., broken up by Donovan DaltonSimilar
Q4 3:05
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+13
97.8%
Max Gilliam pass complete to Giovanni Fauolo Sr. for 13 yds to the Hawa 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:05
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+6
97.8%
Max Gilliam pass complete to Giovanni Fauolo Sr. for 6 yds to the Hawa 10Similar
Q4 3:05
3RD & 4
OPP 10
0
98.0%
Max Gilliam pass intercepted Donovan Dalton return for no gain to the Hawa 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 30END OF GAME1 play · -2 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:45
Calvin Turner run for 28 yds for a TD (Matthew Shipley KICK)
+8.1
TD · Q3 9:34
Charles Williams run for 2 yds for a TD (Daniel Gutierrez KICK)
-7
TD · Q2 0:53
Max Gilliam pass complete to Kyle Williams for 19 yds for a TD (Daniel Gutierrez KICK)
-6.5