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Win probability · WYO
modelWYO aheadHAW aheadconfidence bandkey playWYO scoreHAW score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:42 · Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Dae Dae Hunter for 4 yds to the Hawa 37
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 1:04: Dae Dae Hunter run for 3 yds for a TD (Matthew Shipley KICK) — HAW win probability +10.8 pts (now 49%) (top driver: HAW has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q2 1:04: Adam Stack kickoff for 61 yds , Dontae Crow return for 11 yds to the Wyom 46 WYOMING Penalty, illegal block (7 Yards) to the Wyom 8 — WYO win probability +5.8 pts (now 57%) (top driver: HAW has the ball).
- TD · Q3 4:22: Trey Smith run for 1 yd for a TD (John Hoyland KICK) — WYO win probability +16.5 pts (now 80%) (top driver: WYO has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 10:07: Xazavian Valladay run for 5 yds to the Hawa 12 — WYO win probability +6.3 pts (now 87%) (top driver: WYO has the ball).
- TD · Q4 8:19: Xazavian Valladay run for 6 yds for a TD (John Hoyland KICK) — WYO win probability +10.2 pts (now 96%) (top driver: WYO has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
WYO made the numbers' call on 5 of 7HAW made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
- Q1 9:55WYO 4th & 8 at HAW 13, up 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 47.2% before the snapGo for it47.0%−0.130% to convertField goalTheir call47.2%85% to makePunt46.1%−1.1average punt
- Q1 9:55HAW 4th & 1 at HAW 34, down 10Close callPunted · 53.2% before the snapGo for it53.4%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call53.2%−0.2average punt
- Q1 5:39WYO 4th & 3 at HAW 41, up 10Close callPunted · 50.6% before the snapGo for it50.9%52% to convertField goal49.8%−1.132% to makePuntTheir call50.1%−0.8average punt
- Q1 4:11HAW 4th & 23 at HAW 18, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.7% before the snapGo for it47.9%−1.16% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call49.0%average punt
- Q1 2:35WYO 4th & 7 at HAW 45, up 10Close callPunted · 52.1% before the snapGo for it52.5%37% to convertField goal51.5%−1.025% to makePuntTheir call52.5%−<0.1average punt
- Q2 15:00HAW 4th & 14 at HAW 25, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.8% before the snapGo for it44.0%−1.317% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call45.4%average punt
- Q2 3:39WYO 4th & 18 at HAW 18, up 10Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 62.5% before the snapGo for it60.8%−2.411% to convertField goalTheir call63.2%79% to makePunt56.7%−6.5average punt
- Q3 12:16HAW 4th & 7 at WYO 27, down 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 45.2% before the snapGo for it44.5%−0.436% to convertField goalTheir call44.9%62% to makePunt37.9%−7.1average punt
- Q3 12:16WYO 4th & 6 at WYO 49, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.7% before the snapGo for it57.0%−<0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call57.0%average punt
- Q3 10:05HAW 4th & 5 at HAW 43, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.8% before the snapGo for it43.0%−0.741% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call43.7%average punt
- Q3 4:22HAW 4th & 25 at HAW 10, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.9% before the snapGo for it17.7%−3.86% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call21.5%average punt
- Q4 14:50HAW 4th & 18 at HAW 24, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.2% before the snapGo for it14.0%−3.812% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call17.8%average punt
- Q4 13:39WYO 4th & 6 at WYO 27, up 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.0% before the snapGo for it81.3%−0.939% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call82.1%average punt
- Q4 6:31HAW 4th & 7 at HAW 47, down 17Close callWent for it · 3.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call3.1%−<0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt3.2%average punt
- Q4 6:26WYO 4th & 1 at HAW 17, up 17Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call96.9%71% to convertField goal96.2%−0.780% to makePunt94.1%−2.8average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WYO made the numbers' call on 3 of 4HAW made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 12:53WYO Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call44.9%97% to makeGo for two44.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:04HAW Touchdown, down 4 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call45.1%97% to makeGo for two45.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 4:22WYO Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call79.6%97% to makeGo for two79.4%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 8:19WYO Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call95.6%97% to makeGo for two95.2%−0.345% to convert
- Q4 1:48WYO Touchdown, up 23 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call99.5%−0.197% to makeGo for two99.6%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartWYODrive 1TD6 plays · 62 yds · 2:0744% → 46%
HAWDrive 2FUMBLE3 plays · 9 yds · 0:0054% → 54%
WYODrive 3FG6 plays · 12 yds · 2:1946% → 48%
HAWDrive 4PUNT7 plays · 9 yds · 0:0053% → 53%
Q1 9:55
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+1
47.5%
Adam Stack punt for 47 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Wyom 20 , Dontae Crow returns for 1 yd to the Wyom 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 5PUNT12 plays · 39 yds · 3:0248% → 52%
Q1 8:41
2ND & 15
OWN 15
+6
48.2%
Levi Williams pass complete to Ayden Eberhardt for 6 yds to the Wyom 21Similar
Q1 8:41
3RD & 9
OWN 21
+15
48.0%
WILLIAMS, Levi pass incomplete to NEYOR, Isaiah, PENALTY UH pass interference 15 yards to the WYO36, 1ST DOWN WYO, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:39
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+8
52.4%
Levi Williams pass complete to Nate Weinman for 8 yds to the Hawa 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 6PUNT7 plays · -2 yds · 0:0049% → 48%
WYODrive 7PUNT6 plays · 14 yds · 0:0053% → 52%
HAWDrive 8PUNT10 plays · 21 yds · 0:2246% → 45%
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+6
54.3%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Jared Smart for 6 yds to the Hawa 23Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 14
OWN 25
+6
55.4%
Adam Stack punt for 45 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Wyom 21 , Dontae Crow returns for 6 yds to the Wyom 31 WYOMING Penalty, illegal block (15 Yards) to the Wyom 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 9MISSED FG19 plays · 61 yds · 8:1556% → 62%
HAWDrive 10TD7 plays · 80 yds · 2:3536% → 49%
WYODrive 11END OF HALF3 plays · 15 yds · 0:0056% → 56%
HAWDrive 12MISSED FG8 plays · 58 yds · 2:3645% → 45%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+15
55.2%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Jared Smart for 15 yds to the Hawa 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+4
50.7%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Jared Smart for 4 yds to the Wyom 26Similar
Q3 14:52
2ND & 6
OPP 26
-1
50.4%
Chevan Cordeiro sacked by Charles Hicks for a loss of 1 yard to the Wyom 27Similar
Q3 14:52
3RD & 7
OPP 27
0
52.1%
Chevan Cordeiro pass incomplete to Dae Dae Hunter, broken up by Chad MumaSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 13PUNT6 plays · 22 yds · 0:0057% → 57%
Q3 12:16
2ND & 8
OWN 29
+16
57.2%
Levi Williams pass complete to Ayden Eberhardt for 16 yds to the Wyom 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:16
3RD & 6
OWN 49
0
58.6%
Levi Williams pass incomplete to Treyton Welch, broken up by Donovan DaltonSimilar
Q3 12:16
4TH & 6
OWN 49
+27
56.8%
Nickolas Null punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Hawa 38 , Melquise Stovall returns for 27 yds to the Hawa 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 14PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0045% → 43%
Q3 10:05
4TH & 5
OWN 43
+6
57.0%
Adam Stack punt for 38 yds , Dontae Crow returns for 6 yds to the Wyom 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 15TD11 plays · 75 yds · 4:5159% → 80%
Q3 9:13
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+25
57.5%
Levi Williams pass complete to Dontae Crow for 25 yds to the Hawa 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 16PUNT6 plays · -15 yds · 0:0023% → 21%
Q3 4:22
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
77.0%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Melquise Stovall for 5 yds to the Hawa 30Similar
Q3 4:22
3RD & 5
OWN 30
-15
76.8%
CORDEIRO, C. pass complete to STOVALL, M. for 20 yards to the 50 yardline, out-of-bounds (MUMA, Chad), PENALTY UH pass interference 15 yards to the UH15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:22
3RD & 20
OWN 15
-5
78.3%
Chevan Cordeiro sacked by Victor Jones and Jordan Bertagnole for a loss of 5 yards to the Hawa 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 17FUMBLE6 plays · 39 yds · 2:4481% → 84%
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+7
83.9%
Xazavian Valladay run for 7 yds to the Hawa 11 Xazavian Valladay fumbled, forced by Cortez Davis, recovered by Hawa Quentin FrazierSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 18PUNT7 plays · 13 yds · 0:0018% → 16%
Q4 14:50
2ND & 10
OWN 11
+6
82.3%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Melquise Stovall for 6 yds to the Hawa 17Similar
Q4 14:50
3RD & 4
OWN 17
+15
82.9%
WYOMING Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the Hawa 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:50
2ND & 10
OWN 32
-8
81.4%
Chevan Cordeiro sacked by Charles Hicks for a loss of 8 yards to the Hawa 24Similar
Q4 14:50
3RD & 18
OWN 24
0
83.1%
Chevan Cordeiro pass incomplete to Dae Dae Hunter, broken up by Azizi HearnSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 19PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0083% → 81%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 20INT6 plays · 12 yds · 0:0020% → 19%
Q4 12:14
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+7
80.5%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Jared Smart for 7 yds to the Wyom 48Similar
Q4 12:14
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
79.4%
Chevan Cordeiro pass incomplete to Jared Smart, broken up by Cole GodboutSimilar
Q4 12:14
3RD & 10
OPP 43
-47
80.6%
Chevan Cordeiro pass intercepted Charles Hicks return for 47 yds to the Hawa 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 21TD4 plays · 17 yds · 1:4887% → 96%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 22DOWNS7 plays · 13 yds · 1:484% → 3%
Q4 8:19
2ND & 5
OWN 49
-9
95.6%
Chevan Cordeiro sacked by Jordan Bertagnole for a loss of 9 yards to the Hawa 40Similar
Q4 8:19
3RD & 14
OWN 40
+7
96.1%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Calvin Turner for 7 yds to the Hawa 47Similar
Q4 6:31
4TH & 7
OWN 47
-9
96.6%
Chevan Cordeiro sacked by Cole Godbout for a loss of 9 yards to the Hawa 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 23TD9 plays · 38 yds · 4:3898% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 24END OF GAME5 plays · 15 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
99.5%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Dae Dae Hunter for 4 yds to the Hawa 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 4:22
Trey Smith run for 1 yd for a TD (John Hoyland KICK)
+16.5
TD · Q2 1:04
Dae Dae Hunter run for 3 yds for a TD (Matthew Shipley KICK)
-10.8
TD · Q4 8:19
Xazavian Valladay run for 6 yds for a TD (John Hoyland KICK)
+10.2