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HAW

Hawai'i 21 at Fresno State 20

FRES
2024 · Week 10 · Nov 2, 2024 · Valley Children's Stadium
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Win probability · FRES
modelFRES aheadHAW aheadconfidence bandkey playFRES scoreHAW score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 6:04 · Brayden Schager run for 1 yd to the FRES 19 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialTime remaining
+28.5+14.30−14.3−28.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 99Pregame prior+10.5Home team on offense+3.3Garbage-time factor−0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.4Score differential+0.3Time remaining+0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 3:58: Brayden Schager pass intercepted Phoenix Jackson return for 89 yds for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK) — FRES win probability +16.3 pts (now 88%) (top driver: HAW has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 9:04: Brayden Schager pass complete to Nick Cenacle for 9 yds for a TD (Kansei Matsuzawa KICK) — HAW win probability +20.5 pts (now 31%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q4 9:04: Mikey Keene pass complete to Raylen Sharpe for 11 yds to the FRES 36 for a 1ST down — FRES win probability +16.2 pts (now 85%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 1:49: Elijah Gilliam run for 3 yds to the FRES 25 — FRES win probability +22.3 pts (now 94%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:15: Brayden Schager pass complete to Nick Cenacle for 3 yds for a TD (Kansei Matsuzawa KICK) — HAW win probability +69.7 pts (now 90%) (top driver: HAW has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
FRES made the numbers' call on 6 of 7HAW made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q2 15:00HAW 4th & 1 at HAW 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 24.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    25.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    24.7%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q2 13:04HAW 4th & 1 at HAW 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 26.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    26.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    25.6%−0.7
    average punt
  3. Q2 8:57HAW 4th & 9 at HAW 26, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.2%−0.9
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.1%
    average punt
  4. Q2 6:17FRES 4th & 7 at FRES 46, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.6%−0.3
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.9%
    average punt
  5. Q2 2:51HAW 4th & 4 at HAW 46, down 6
    Close callPunted · 22.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.5%−0.6
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:36FRES 4th & 7 at FRES 34, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.4%−0.8
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.1%
    average punt
  7. Q3 13:34FRES 4th & 11 at FRES 24, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.5%−1.9
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.4%
    average punt
  8. Q3 12:27HAW 4th & 22 at HAW 5, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.7%−3.6
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.3%
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:40FRES 4th & 9 at FRES 48, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.5%−0.7
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.3%
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:04HAW 4th & 1 at FRES 20, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 26.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    25.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    22.9%−2.9
    75% to make
    Punt
    13.5%−12.2
    average punt
  11. Q3 1:56HAW 4th & 9 at HAW 43, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.6%−0.8
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.4%
    average punt
  12. Q4 13:59FRES 4th & 5 at FRES 39, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.3%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.5%
    average punt
  13. Q4 11:33HAW 4th & 1 at HAW 48, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    6.7%−1.9
    average punt
  14. Q4 7:06FRES 4th & 3 at FRES 43, up 6
    Close callPunted · 87.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.6%−0.5
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:36FRES 4th & 23 at FRES 9, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.0%−4.4
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.4%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FRES made the numbers' call on 3 of 3HAW made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 7:12HAW Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:32FRES Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 10:21FRES Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    78.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 3:58FRES Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 9:04HAW Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    14.3%−0.5
    97% to make
    Go for two
    14.8%
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 0:15HAW Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.8%−12.7
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
HAWDrive 1TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 7:4822% → 27%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
78.3%
Tylan Hines run for 7 yds to the HAW 32Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+4
78.3%
Tylan Hines run for 4 yds to the HAW 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
78.3%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Karsyn Pupunu for 5 yds to the HAW 41Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 41
0
78.3%
Brayden Schager pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 41
+6
78.3%
Brayden Schager run for 6 yds to the HAW 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:39
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+8
77.5%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Oakie Salave'a for 8 yds to the FRES 45Similar
Q1 12:02
2ND & 2
OPP 45
+5
77.3%
Brayden Schager run for 5 yds to the FRES 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:58
2ND & 1
OPP 31
+4
76.8%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Jonah Panoke for 4 yds to the FRES 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:32
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+9
76.8%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Nick Cenacle for 9 yds to the FRES 31Similar
Q1 10:13
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+6
76.7%
Brayden Schager run for 6 yds to the FRES 21Similar
Q1 9:42
2ND & 4
OPP 21
+14
76.5%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Tylan Hines for 14 yds to the FRES 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
76.2%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Landon Sims for 3 yds to the FRES 4Similar
Q1 8:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-1
76.4%
Brayden Schager run for a loss of 1 yard to the FRES 5Similar
Q1 7:12
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
73.4%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Pofele Ashlock for 5 yds for a TD (Kansei Matsuzawa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 2TD
16 plays · 83 yds · 5:3475% → 76%
Q1 7:06
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+7
75.0%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Mac Dalena for 7 yds to the FRES 24Similar
Q1 6:45
2ND & 3
OWN 24
+10
74.9%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Elijah Gilliam for 10 yds to the FRES 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
74.4%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Mac Dalena for 4 yds to the FRES 38Similar
Q1 5:55
2ND & 6
OWN 38
+6
74.8%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Jalen Moss for 6 yds to the FRES 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-1
74.7%
Elijah Gilliam run for a loss of 1 yard to the FRES 43Similar
Q1 5:05
2ND & 11
OWN 43
+6
74.3%
Elijah Gilliam run for 6 yds to the FRES 49Similar
Q1 4:34
3RD & 5
OWN 49
+9
74.4%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Elijah Gilliam for 9 yds to the HAW 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:58
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-6
73.9%
Mikey Keene sacked by Elijah Robinson for a loss of 6 yards to the HAW 48Similar
Q1 3:44
2ND & 16
OPP 48
+5
72.5%
Bryson Donelson run for 5 yds to the HAW 43Similar
Q1 3:19
3RD & 11
OPP 43
+21
71.5%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Raylen Sharpe for 21 yds to the HAW 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:47
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
72.5%
Joshua Wood run for 2 yds to the HAW 20Similar
Q1 2:47
2ND & 8
OPP 20
+10
72.5%
Hawai'i Penalty, Personal Foul (Cam Stone) to the HAW 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
76.2%
Elijah Gilliam run for 10 yds for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 3DOWNS
9 plays · 3 yds · 3:2826% → 27%
Q1 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
74.1%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Nick Cenacle for 5 yds to the HAW 30Similar
Q1 1:04
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+3
73.7%
Landon Sims run for 3 yds to the HAW 33Similar
Q1 0:02
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+1
73.6%
Tylan Hines run for 1 yd to the HAW 34Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+2
74.1%
Brayden Schager run for 2 yds to the HAW 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
73.3%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Tamatoa Mokiao-Atimalala for 4 yds to the HAW 40Similar
Q2 14:09
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+5
72.6%
Tylan Hines run for 5 yds to the HAW 45Similar
Q2 13:30
3RD & 1
OWN 45
0
72.2%
Brayden Schager pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:04
4TH & 1
OWN 45
-17
72.8%
Brayden Schager sacked for a loss of 17 yards to the HAW 28 Brayden Schager fumbled, recovered by HAW , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 4TD
8 plays · 28 yds · 2:3176% → 80%
Q2 12:52
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
75.7%
Elijah Gilliam run for 4 yds to the HAW 24Similar
Q2 12:32
2ND & 6
OPP 24
0
75.6%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:24
3RD & 6
OPP 24
+7
75.0%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Mac Dalena for 7 yds to the HAW 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
75.5%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:00
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+9
75.5%
Joshua Wood run for 9 yds to the HAW 8Similar
Q2 11:45
3RD & 1
OPP 8
+3
74.8%
Joshua Wood run for 3 yds to the HAW 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
75.4%
Elijah Gilliam run for no gain to the HAW 5Similar
Q2 10:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
79.6%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Raylen Sharpe for 5 yds for a TD (Dylan Lynch PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 1:2422% → 21%
Q2 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
78.3%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Tylan Hines for a loss of 1 yard to the HAW 24Similar
Q2 9:51
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+7
78.5%
Tylan Hines run for 7 yds to the HAW 31Similar
Q2 9:28
3RD & 4
OWN 31
-5
78.4%
Hawai'i Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the HAW 26Similar
Q2 9:02
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
78.8%
Brayden Schager pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:57
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
79.1%
Lucas Borrow punt for 48 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 2:2980% → 81%
Q2 8:46
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
80.1%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Jalen Moss for 4 yds to the FRES 30Similar
Q2 8:11
2ND & 6
OWN 30
+3
80.7%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Raylen Sharpe for 3 yds to the FRES 33Similar
Q2 8:01
3RD & 3
OWN 33
+10
80.4%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Richie Anderson for 10 yds to the FRES 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:01
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
81.6%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:13
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+8
81.5%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Lyndon Ravare for 8 yds to the HAW 49Similar
Q2 6:56
3RD & 2
OPP 49
-5
81.4%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Bryson Donelson for a loss of 5 yards to the FRES 46Similar
Q2 6:17
4TH & 7
OWN 46
0
80.5%
Clay Lawrence punt for 48 yds, downed at the HAW 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 40 yds · 2:5419% → 19%
Q2 5:45
1ST & 7
OWN 6
+4
81.0%
Landon Sims run for 4 yds to the HAW 10Similar
Q2 5:24
2ND & 3
OWN 10
+2
81.1%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Pofele Ashlock for 2 yds to the HAW 12Similar
Q2 4:54
3RD & 1
OWN 12
+28
81.0%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Spencer Curtis for 28 yds to the HAW 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
80.1%
Cam Barfield run for 2 yds to the HAW 42Similar
Q2 3:49
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+4
80.2%
Brayden Schager run for 4 yds to the HAW 46Similar
Q2 3:12
3RD & 4
OWN 46
0
79.4%
Brayden Schager pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:51
4TH & 4
OWN 46
+24
80.7%
Lucas Borrow punt for 47 yds , Jalen Moss returns for 24 yds to the FRES 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:0081% → 78%
Q2 2:36
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+7
80.7%
Elijah Gilliam run for 7 yds to the FRES 38Similar
Q2 2:17
2ND & 3
OWN 38
+1
80.6%
Elijah Gilliam run for 1 yd to the FRES 39Similar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 2
OWN 39
-5
79.7%
Mikey Keene sacked by Daniel Williams for a loss of 5 yards to the FRES 34Similar
Q2 1:36
4TH & 7
OWN 34
0
78.0%
Clay Lawrence punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Tylan Hines at the HAW 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 9END OF HALF
4 plays · 13 yds · 0:3618% → 19%
Q2 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+4
81.8%
Brayden Schager run for 4 yds to the HAW 28Similar
Q2 0:50
2ND & 6
OWN 28
0
81.7%
Brayden Schager pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:40
3RD & 6
OWN 28
+12
82.2%
Brayden Schager run for 12 yds to the HAW 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-3
81.0%
Micah Alejado run for a loss of 3 yards to the HAW 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:2178% → 76%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
78.3%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Bryson Donelson for a loss of 5 yards to the FRES 20Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 15
OWN 20
-3
78.0%
Mikey Keene sacked by Elijah Robinson for a loss of 3 yards to the FRES 17Similar
Q3 14:08
3RD & 18
OWN 17
+7
77.2%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Jalen Moss for 7 yds to the FRES 24Similar
Q3 13:34
4TH & 11
OWN 24
+10
76.3%
Clay Lawrence punt for 50 yds , Tylan Hines returns for 10 yds to the HAW 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · -12 yds · 0:3224% → 22%
Q3 12:59
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
76.1%
Brayden Schager pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:52
2ND & 10
OWN 17
0
76.5%
Brayden Schager pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:46
3RD & 10
OWN 17
-12
77.3%
Brayden Schager sacked by Julian Neal for a loss of 12 yards to the HAW 5Similar
Q3 12:27
4TH & 22
OWN 5
0
78.1%
Lucas Borrow punt for 48 yds , Jalen Moss returns for no gain to the FRES 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:1880% → 77%
Q3 11:58
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-3
79.7%
Elijah Gilliam run for a loss of 3 yards to the FRES 44Similar
Q3 11:39
2ND & 13
OWN 44
+4
78.6%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Richie Anderson for 4 yds to the FRES 48Similar
Q3 11:02
3RD & 9
OWN 48
0
78.3%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:40
4TH & 9
OWN 48
0
77.0%
Clay Lawrence punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Tylan Hines at the HAW 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 13INT TD
13 plays · 64 yds · 6:3424% → 12%
Q3 10:32
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+23
76.0%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Pofele Ashlock for 23 yds to the HAW 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+8
75.2%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Tylan Hines for 8 yds to the HAW 42Similar
Q3 9:30
2ND & 2
OWN 42
+18
73.4%
Brayden Schager run for 3 yds to the FRES 45 for a 1ST down Fresno State Penalty, Personal Foul (Cam Lockridge) to the FRES 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:41
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+9
72.7%
Tylan Hines run for 9 yds to the FRES 31Similar
Q3 8:31
2ND & 1
OPP 31
+2
70.9%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Jonah Panoke for 2 yds to the FRES 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:43
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
70.7%
Brayden Schager pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:13
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+9
71.1%
Tylan Hines run for 9 yds to the FRES 20Similar
Q3 6:48
3RD & 1
OPP 20
0
71.9%
Brayden Schager run for no gain to the FRES 20Similar
Q3 6:04
4TH & 1
OPP 20
+1
73.3%
Brayden Schager run for 1 yd to the FRES 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:32
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-1
70.2%
Brayden Schager run for a loss of 1 yard to the FRES 20Similar
Q3 4:50
2ND & 11
OPP 20
0
70.3%
Brayden Schager pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:16
3RD & 11
OPP 20
-5
71.9%
Hawai'i Penalty, False Start (Elijah Robinson) to the FRES 25Similar
Q3 3:58
3RD & 16
OPP 25
-89
88.2%
Brayden Schager pass intercepted Phoenix Jackson return for 89 yds for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 2:0211% → 10%
Q3 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
89.1%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Nick Cenacle for a loss of 1 yard to the HAW 24Similar
Q3 3:32
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
89.3%
Brayden Schager pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:13
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+15
89.7%
Fresno State Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Tuasivi Nomura) to the HAW 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:03
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
88.2%
Brayden Schager run for 1 yd to the HAW 43Similar
Q3 2:12
2ND & 9
OWN 43
0
88.7%
Brayden Schager pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:00
3RD & 9
OWN 43
0
89.1%
Brayden Schager pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:56
4TH & 9
OWN 43
0
90.0%
Lucas Borrow punt for 46 yds , Jalen Moss returns for no gain to the FRES 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 15PUNT
8 plays · 28 yds · 2:4891% → 93%
Q3 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+9
91.3%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Raylen Sharpe for 9 yds to the FRES 20Similar
Q3 1:25
2ND & 1
OWN 20
+3
91.5%
Bryson Donelson run for 3 yds to the FRES 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+9
91.5%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Mac Dalena for 9 yds to the FRES 32Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 1
OWN 32
+2
93.3%
Bryson Donelson run for 2 yds to the FRES 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
93.2%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Jake Tarwater for no gain to the FRES 34Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+5
93.1%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Jake Tarwater for 5 yds to the FRES 39Similar
Q4 14:13
3RD & 5
OWN 39
0
93.5%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:59
4TH & 5
OWN 39
0
93.1%
Clay Lawrence punt for 48 yds, downed at the HAW 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 16TD
14 plays · 87 yds · 4:409% → 31%
Q4 13:44
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+4
91.2%
Landon Sims run for 4 yds to the HAW 17Similar
Q4 13:44
2ND & 6
OWN 17
+22
91.3%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Nick Cenacle for 22 yds to the HAW 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:34
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
89.9%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Nick Cenacle for 6 yds to the HAW 45Similar
Q4 13:34
2ND & 4
OWN 45
+3
89.7%
Tylan Hines run for 3 yds to the HAW 48Similar
Q4 11:55
3RD & 1
OWN 48
0
90.9%
Brayden Schager pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:33
4TH & 1
OWN 48
+13
90.6%
Tylan Hines run for 13 yds to the FRES 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
90.4%
Brayden Schager pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:43
2ND & 10
OPP 39
0
90.4%
Brayden Schager pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:36
3RD & 10
OPP 39
+1
91.1%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Tamatoa Mokiao-Atimalala for 1 yd to the FRES 38Similar
Q4 10:24
4TH & 9
OPP 38
+15
91.4%
(10:24) SCHAGER, Brayden pass deep to the left incomplete intended for ASHLOCK, Pofele thrown to the FST22, clock 09:54 (Play was confirmed after official review). PENALTY FST Targeting on LOCKRIDGE, Cameron enforced 15 yards from the FST38 to the FST23 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 9:54
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+14
89.8%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Karsyn Pupunu for 14 yds to the FRES 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
89.7%
Brayden Schager pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
69.2%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Nick Cenacle for 9 yds for a TD (Kansei Matsuzawa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 1:5885% → 87%
Q4 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
85.4%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Raylen Sharpe for 11 yds to the FRES 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:38
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-2
86.5%
Joshua Wood run for a loss of 2 yards to the FRES 34Similar
Q4 8:00
2ND & 12
OWN 34
+4
85.8%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Jalen Moss for 4 yds to the FRES 38Similar
Q4 7:26
3RD & 8
OWN 38
+5
86.5%
(07:26) KEENE, Mikey pass short to the right incomplete intended for MOSS, Jalen broken up by BROWN, Caleb at the FST42. PENALTY HAW Offsides enforced 5 yards from the FST38 to the FST43 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 7:10
3RD & 3
OWN 43
0
87.7%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:06
4TH & 3
OWN 43
0
86.8%
Clay Lawrence punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Tylan Hines at the HAW 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 18FUMBLE
13 plays · 60 yds · 5:0222% → 29%
Q4 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+4
78.0%
Tylan Hines run for 4 yds to the HAW 22Similar
Q4 6:40
2ND & 6
OWN 22
+15
77.7%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Nick Cenacle for 15 yds to the HAW 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-1
76.2%
Tylan Hines run for a loss of 1 yard to the HAW 36Similar
Q4 5:25
2ND & 11
OWN 36
0
78.7%
Brayden Schager pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:56
3RD & 11
OWN 36
+11
80.9%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Nick Cenacle for 11 yds to the HAW 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:56
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-2
74.6%
Brayden Schager run for a loss of 2 yards to the HAW 45Similar
Q4 3:50
2ND & 12
OWN 45
+9
77.8%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Nick Cenacle for 9 yds to the FRES 46Similar
Q4 2:49
3RD & 3
OPP 46
+5
74.8%
Tylan Hines run for 5 yds to the FRES 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:23
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
74.7%
Brayden Schager pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:01
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+5
73.5%
Landon Sims run for 5 yds to the FRES 36Similar
Q4 1:56
3RD & 5
OPP 36
+14
71.2%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Nick Cenacle for 14 yds Nick Cenacle fumbled, recovered by FRES Jayden Davis J. Davis return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 19PUNT
7 plays · -13 yds · 0:1394% → 95%
Q4 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
93.5%
Elijah Gilliam run for 3 yds to the FRES 25Similar
Q4 1:42
2ND & 7
OWN 25
-2
95.1%
Elijah Gilliam run for a loss of 2 yards to the FRES 23Similar
Q4 1:38
3RD & 9
OWN 23
-14
94.9%
Mikey Keene sacked by Jalen Smith for a loss of 14 yards to the FRES 9Similar
Q4 1:36
4TH & 23
OWN 9
0
94.5%
Clay Lawrence punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Tylan Hines at the FRES 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 20TD
11 plays · 47 yds · 1:1513% → 90%
Q4 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
86.8%
Brayden Schager run for 4 yds to the FRES 43Similar
Q4 1:22
2ND & 6
OPP 43
+8
86.5%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Jonah Panoke for 8 yds to the FRES 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:16
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+6
82.6%
Landon Sims run for 6 yds to the FRES 29Similar
Q4 0:57
2ND & 4
OPP 29
+11
80.8%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Nick Cenacle for 11 yds to the FRES 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:49
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
80.8%
Brayden Schager pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:44
2ND & 10
OPP 18
0
81.8%
Brayden Schager pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:39
3RD & 10
OPP 18
0
86.5%
Brayden Schager pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:34
4TH & 10
OPP 18
+18
88.2%
(00:34) SCHAGER, Brayden pass deep to the left incomplete intended for HINES, Tylan thrown to the FST0, clock 00:28. PENALTY FST Pass Interference on NOMURA, Tuasivi enforced at the spot of the foul for 18 yards to the FST0 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 0:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
78.9%
Brayden Schager pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
79.6%
Brayden Schager pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:15
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
9.9%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Nick Cenacle for 3 yds for a TD (Kansei Matsuzawa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 21END OF GAME
3 plays · 39 yds · 0:1125% → 20%
Q4 0:11
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-2
25.3%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Elijah Gilliam for a loss of 2 yards to the FRES 19Similar
Q4 0:01
2ND & 12
OWN 19
+15
17.6%
Hawai'i Penalty, Targeting on THOMPSON, Matagi enforced (Matagi Thompson) to the FRES 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+10
20.1%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Mac Dalena for 10 yds to the HAW 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:15
Brayden Schager pass complete to Nick Cenacle for 3 yds for a TD (Kansei Matsuzawa KICK)
-69.7
KEY PLAY · Q4 1:49
Elijah Gilliam run for 3 yds to the FRES 25
+22.3
TD · Q4 9:04
Brayden Schager pass complete to Nick Cenacle for 9 yds for a TD (Kansei Matsuzawa KICK)
-20.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com